gg wolves
I'm sorry everyone, I know I wasn't super invested or active this game and that's on me
Search found 208 matches
Return to “Escape From Russia [GAME OVER]”
- Tue Oct 20, 2020 10:52 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Escape From Russia [GAME OVER]
- Replies: 6039
- Views: 60610
- Tue Oct 20, 2020 10:29 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Escape From Russia [GAME OVER]
- Replies: 6039
- Views: 60610
Re: Escape From Russia [Day 5]
I know ties are no-elimHally wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 10:10 pmties are no eliminationArete wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 10:09 pm hi
I'm probably not going to be able to post again before EoD
I think ... I'm a little scared of being wrong here but I think this vote is correct
@Epignosis
I don't trust you, but on the off-chance that I'm wrong and you're a villager I would appreciate it if you would, like, check in right before EoD so you can see if Ash or Poison try to last-minute swap and force a tie?
that's why I'm concerned, because if you're scum being bussed your partner can force a no-elim
- Tue Oct 20, 2020 10:27 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Escape From Russia [GAME OVER]
- Replies: 6039
- Views: 60610
Re: Escape From Russia [Day 5]
ok I am actually here for EoD, th ething I was doing wrapped up early
hi
hi
- Tue Oct 20, 2020 10:10 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Escape From Russia [GAME OVER]
- Replies: 6039
- Views: 60610
- Tue Oct 20, 2020 10:09 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Escape From Russia [GAME OVER]
- Replies: 6039
- Views: 60610
Re: Escape From Russia [Day 5]
hi
I'm probably not going to be able to post again before EoD
I think ... I'm a little scared of being wrong here but I think this vote is correct
[mention]Epignosis[/mention]
I don't trust you, but on the off-chance that I'm wrong and you're a villager I would appreciate it if you would, like, check in right before EoD so you can see if Ash or Poison try to last-minute swap and force a tie?
I'm probably not going to be able to post again before EoD
I think ... I'm a little scared of being wrong here but I think this vote is correct
[mention]Epignosis[/mention]
I don't trust you, but on the off-chance that I'm wrong and you're a villager I would appreciate it if you would, like, check in right before EoD so you can see if Ash or Poison try to last-minute swap and force a tie?
- Tue Oct 20, 2020 8:53 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Escape From Russia [GAME OVER]
- Replies: 6039
- Views: 60610
- Tue Oct 20, 2020 8:52 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Escape From Russia [GAME OVER]
- Replies: 6039
- Views: 60610
Re: Escape From Russia [Day 5]
ok
uh
so according to eevee from my homesite (who's, like, an actually good player to be clear, not some random troll, even if he sometimes plays like that) villagers are way more likely to just say 'potato' and wolves are way more likely to be like 'wtf are you doing'
(I have actually legitimately seen this work, I'm pretty sure he wasn't just messing with me)
except ... both of you said potato
so this didn't help at all unless I'm going to call the team Epi/Poison which seems not very plausible
uh
so according to eevee from my homesite (who's, like, an actually good player to be clear, not some random troll, even if he sometimes plays like that) villagers are way more likely to just say 'potato' and wolves are way more likely to be like 'wtf are you doing'
(I have actually legitimately seen this work, I'm pretty sure he wasn't just messing with me)
except ... both of you said potato
so this didn't help at all unless I'm going to call the team Epi/Poison which seems not very plausible
- Tue Oct 20, 2020 8:50 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Escape From Russia [GAME OVER]
- Replies: 6039
- Views: 60610
Re: Escape From Russia [Day 5]
first one to say 'potato' is a villager
- Tue Oct 20, 2020 8:49 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Escape From Russia [GAME OVER]
- Replies: 6039
- Views: 60610
Re: Escape From Russia [Day 5]
ok
I have a question-ish thing for you both
and I feel like you're both going to be like 'wtf Arete what are you doing' regardless of your alignments but I promise I have actual reasons for it and I'm not just trolling you
I have a question-ish thing for you both
and I feel like you're both going to be like 'wtf Arete what are you doing' regardless of your alignments but I promise I have actual reasons for it and I'm not just trolling you
- Tue Oct 20, 2020 8:46 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Escape From Russia [GAME OVER]
- Replies: 6039
- Views: 60610
Re: Escape From Russia [Day 5]
Hally
Ash
Are both of you in the thread right now
Ash
Are both of you in the thread right now
- Tue Oct 20, 2020 7:47 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Escape From Russia [GAME OVER]
- Replies: 6039
- Views: 60610
Re: Escape From Russia [Day 5]
who are the wolves, Hally?
- Tue Oct 20, 2020 7:24 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Escape From Russia [GAME OVER]
- Replies: 6039
- Views: 60610
Re: Escape From Russia [Day 5]
I agree with Hally's earlier claim that V!Hally means Epi is also V, like, if Epi is scum and a villager is the consensus LyLo exe they have no reason to go out of their way to be like 'let's CFD every other player in the game except Poison'
like I don't think Hally is V but
this also means that if I can rule out Ash/Poison Hally has to be scum? I think? but like also I've basically been playing all day under the assumption that they're scum and nothing they've done today has particularly given me evidence otherwise
like, I don't think a villager just totally gives up here, particularly since with the reads they're claiming to have, if they're a villager, all they would need to do is find + convince 1 villager on their wagon to move
and instead they're ATEing and asking to die
like I don't think Hally is V but
this also means that if I can rule out Ash/Poison Hally has to be scum? I think? but like also I've basically been playing all day under the assumption that they're scum and nothing they've done today has particularly given me evidence otherwise
like, I don't think a villager just totally gives up here, particularly since with the reads they're claiming to have, if they're a villager, all they would need to do is find + convince 1 villager on their wagon to move
and instead they're ATEing and asking to die
- Tue Oct 20, 2020 7:19 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Escape From Russia [GAME OVER]
- Replies: 6039
- Views: 60610
Re: Escape From Russia [Day 5]
probably not going to be able to be here for EoD, may be able to pop in about half an hour before it actually happens
We'll See (tm)
We'll See (tm)
- Tue Oct 20, 2020 5:19 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Escape From Russia [GAME OVER]
- Replies: 6039
- Views: 60610
Re: Escape From Russia [Day 3]
ok it took me a while to find these quotes but I think they're kind of relevant to my Hally read
these are from EoD3, back when it looked like we might actually vote out Hally
I don't think a town PR ever writes these, like, particularly with 1 doc already dead a hypothetical additional PR would probably not ask to die, obviously this is only addressing the world where Hally is a PR and not the world where Hally is town but not a PR but
- Tue Oct 20, 2020 2:11 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Escape From Russia [GAME OVER]
- Replies: 6039
- Views: 60610
- Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:59 am
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Escape From Russia [GAME OVER]
- Replies: 6039
- Views: 60610
Re: Escape From Russia [Day 5]
I don't think the didn't-save-Vul point is the strongest point against Hally, I've seen lots of real docs miss obvious saves, like, I've literally seen an actual doctor protect her strongest wolfread, who was also wolfread by basically ever other player in the game, on the theory that if the were town wolves would kill them to frame the people suspecting them (a.k.a. literally the entire game)
like I think Hally's claim is fake but that's not why I think Hally's claim is fake
like I think Hally's claim is fake but that's not why I think Hally's claim is fake
- Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:58 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Escape From Russia [GAME OVER]
- Replies: 6039
- Views: 60610
Re: Escape From Russia [Day 5]
Epi
Why are you so confident that Hally is town
Why are you so confident that Hally is town
- Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:42 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Escape From Russia [GAME OVER]
- Replies: 6039
- Views: 60610
Re: Escape From Russia [Day 5]
- Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:36 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Escape From Russia [GAME OVER]
- Replies: 6039
- Views: 60610
Re: Escape From Russia [Day 5]
this is actually really good because I'm pretty confident in ruling out Hally/Ash at this point
so if I combine that post with my actual reads it's probably just Hally/Epi (which is also consistent with how Epi is playing today IMO)
so if I combine that post with my actual reads it's probably just Hally/Epi (which is also consistent with how Epi is playing today IMO)
- Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:34 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Escape From Russia [GAME OVER]
- Replies: 6039
- Views: 60610
Re: Escape From Russia [Day 5]
Arete attempts to do VCA (and probably comes to a bunch of wrong conclusions)
![Image](https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/458088014006976533/767944882215059486/EoDpoll1.png)
![Image](https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/458088014006976533/767944921940099072/EoDpoll2.png)
![Image](https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/458088014006976533/767944955892465675/EoDpoll3.png)
![Image](https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/458088014006976533/767944989040050216/EoD4poll.png)
okay
(this is all ignoring my actual reads)
on a level-1 level Poison + Ash being on the wolf on D1 is a better look for them, Hally being on the CW is a worse look, and Epi being way off wagon is a slightly worse look for them
that said it's LyLo so I don't want to be like 'wolves never vote wolves, Ash and Poison are locktown'
on a slightly higher level I think the context of the EoD points to Ash and Hally not being aligned? like, Ash was spending basically all of D1 dunking on TSP, while Hally was spending EoD1 being like 'CFD the two poster,' and I think that's kind of bizarre if they're partners
that's not VCA per se but I think it's true
semi-points to Poison/Hally not being a thing since one would be bussing while the other would be trying to CFD the 2-poster, but I don't think that's nearly as strong of a case as the case against Ash/Hally since that could just be individual preferences for deepwolfing vs. powerwolfing
D2 is V/V wagons, I don't think scum would have had a strong preference for LC vs. Michelle (maybe there's something I'm missing, I don't actually remember their reads). normally I'd say people off-wagon in V/V wagons are sus but we didn't have anyone off wagon, so. I do think it's weak evidence against an Ash/Poison team since I find it hard to believe that literally all three wolves would stack on Michelle over LC with V/V Michelle and LC.
EoD3 is another interesting one because Hally was one of the two main wagons (and now I feel kind of dumb because I'm pretty sure I was the vote that saved Hally? don't remember for certain). I think this is more evidence against Ash/Hally, Ash's vote legitimately put Hally in danger and I would be surprised if Ash bussed both his teammates back to back for no reason, when he was already (on D3) widely townread post-Tony flip. Epi and Poison are both voting the CW to Hally, I think given how close the vote was that raises the equity of them being teamed with Hally. it might slightly lower the equity of an Epi/Poison team? I don't really see why they both stack on LC there if they're wolves, and separately I think wolves would have seen Hally as a more valuable kill than LC.
EoD4 is V/V wagons again (we should have just killed Epi like I wanted to), again the only off-wagon person is a dead villager. This is maybe slight points against a Hally/Epi team? but their other votes have enough partner equity that I'm not ruling it out. Ash and Poison are voting together again, it's honestly kind of funny at this point? if they're wolves they decided to just always vote together to mess with people, and I don't think I actually believe that.
so to sum up (this is ignoring my actual reads on people)
all theoretical teams
Ash/Hally
Ash/Epi
Ash/Poison
Hally/Epi
Hally/Poison
Epi/Poison
teams I think actually make sense from VCA
Ash/Epi
Hally/Epi
Hally/Poison (some things make it unlikely but can't totally rule it out)
Epi/Poison
![Image](https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/458088014006976533/767944882215059486/EoDpoll1.png)
![Image](https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/458088014006976533/767944921940099072/EoDpoll2.png)
![Image](https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/458088014006976533/767944955892465675/EoDpoll3.png)
![Image](https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/458088014006976533/767944989040050216/EoD4poll.png)
okay
(this is all ignoring my actual reads)
on a level-1 level Poison + Ash being on the wolf on D1 is a better look for them, Hally being on the CW is a worse look, and Epi being way off wagon is a slightly worse look for them
that said it's LyLo so I don't want to be like 'wolves never vote wolves, Ash and Poison are locktown'
on a slightly higher level I think the context of the EoD points to Ash and Hally not being aligned? like, Ash was spending basically all of D1 dunking on TSP, while Hally was spending EoD1 being like 'CFD the two poster,' and I think that's kind of bizarre if they're partners
that's not VCA per se but I think it's true
semi-points to Poison/Hally not being a thing since one would be bussing while the other would be trying to CFD the 2-poster, but I don't think that's nearly as strong of a case as the case against Ash/Hally since that could just be individual preferences for deepwolfing vs. powerwolfing
D2 is V/V wagons, I don't think scum would have had a strong preference for LC vs. Michelle (maybe there's something I'm missing, I don't actually remember their reads). normally I'd say people off-wagon in V/V wagons are sus but we didn't have anyone off wagon, so. I do think it's weak evidence against an Ash/Poison team since I find it hard to believe that literally all three wolves would stack on Michelle over LC with V/V Michelle and LC.
EoD3 is another interesting one because Hally was one of the two main wagons (and now I feel kind of dumb because I'm pretty sure I was the vote that saved Hally? don't remember for certain). I think this is more evidence against Ash/Hally, Ash's vote legitimately put Hally in danger and I would be surprised if Ash bussed both his teammates back to back for no reason, when he was already (on D3) widely townread post-Tony flip. Epi and Poison are both voting the CW to Hally, I think given how close the vote was that raises the equity of them being teamed with Hally. it might slightly lower the equity of an Epi/Poison team? I don't really see why they both stack on LC there if they're wolves, and separately I think wolves would have seen Hally as a more valuable kill than LC.
EoD4 is V/V wagons again (we should have just killed Epi like I wanted to), again the only off-wagon person is a dead villager. This is maybe slight points against a Hally/Epi team? but their other votes have enough partner equity that I'm not ruling it out. Ash and Poison are voting together again, it's honestly kind of funny at this point? if they're wolves they decided to just always vote together to mess with people, and I don't think I actually believe that.
so to sum up (this is ignoring my actual reads on people)
all theoretical teams
Ash/Hally
Ash/Epi
Ash/Poison
Hally/Epi
Hally/Poison
Epi/Poison
teams I think actually make sense from VCA
Ash/Epi
Hally/Epi
Hally/Poison (some things make it unlikely but can't totally rule it out)
Epi/Poison
- Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:03 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Escape From Russia [GAME OVER]
- Replies: 6039
- Views: 60610
Re: Escape From Russia [Day 5]
- Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:03 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Escape From Russia [GAME OVER]
- Replies: 6039
- Views: 60610
Re: Escape From Russia [Day 5]
- Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:47 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Escape From Russia [GAME OVER]
- Replies: 6039
- Views: 60610
Re: Escape From Russia [Day 5]
Hally I agree that your actions make sense from the PoV of a town doc I just don't think it makes sense for the game to have another town doc with the roles we already have
- Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:39 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Escape From Russia [GAME OVER]
- Replies: 6039
- Views: 60610
Re: Escape From Russia [Day 5]
or sorry
the role that Hally totally isn't softing
the role that Hally totally isn't softing
- Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:39 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Escape From Russia [GAME OVER]
- Replies: 6039
- Views: 60610
Re: Escape From Russia [Day 5]
I'm probably always voting Hally over you today (barring situations where you/not Hally are the EoD wagons) because I'm pretty sure Hally's role only makes mechanical sense as Mafia whereas technically you could just be willagingEpignosis wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:35 pmThat's more like it. Arete is sure to follow.Ash Lael wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:35 pmWell I was going to try and sort through the mess a bit more before I started voting, but if you're going to taunt me, sure.Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:33 pmGreat. Lynch me and win the game.Ash Lael wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:32 pmAmong other things, your reads have moved around in a way that doesn't seem believable. 112 flipped town. All the players who I had below you in PoE have died or (in Hally's case) entered some kind of weird mechanical twilight zone where I don't even know.
[VOTE: Epignosis] aubergine
- Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:33 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Escape From Russia [GAME OVER]
- Replies: 6039
- Views: 60610
Re: Escape From Russia [Day 5]
could tutuu's role self-target?
- Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:33 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Escape From Russia [GAME OVER]
- Replies: 6039
- Views: 60610
Re: Escape From Russia [Day 5]
Hally wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:29 pmwhy is epi wolfy?Arete wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:28 pmnot dyingHally wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:22 pmbut it’s not me arete
what things did he do that pinged you?
immediately jumping to using the Wilgy nightkill to shade me (which, I'm probably biased because I'm a villager, but besides 'Ash is a wolf' the obvious explanation FMPoV for 'why did Wilgy die' is 'to shade me', obviously if Ash is a villager he doesn't know that I'm a villager but him jumping to using it shade me is consistent with how I think wolves would want to use the nightkill, also the way he was like 'wait, let me go quote something' and then made a second post to quote the read felt kind of performative)
shading me but not actually calling me a wolf
I still find Epi wolfier than him
+they aren't making any effort to reevaluate their reads whatsoeverArete wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:38 pmyou are one of two players this game that I don't have non-associative reasons to townread (the other being Wilgy) and I think the threadstate points to Wilgy being a villagerEpignosis wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:29 pmAnd this is your best evidence:Arete wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:50 pmright now I'm leaning you as one of them, as you probably guessed from the fact that I'm voting youEpignosis wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:14 pmWhat you meant was, "Right now, I don't think Wilgy is a hit." I knew that.Arete wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 7:42 pmthen presumably you should have been able to use context clues to figure out that my sentence was narrating my present state of mind rather than implying Wilgy's alignment would be different depending on when we flipped him!Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 7:38 pmArete wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 7:32 pm like, I have trouble seeing how a reasonable native speaker of English* would interpret my sentence like that
and it kinda feels like you picked out a random line from my post and completely ignored my actual argument so that you could vote me and have a reason other than OMGUS
because the reason you're presenting does not make sense
*I don't know if you're a native English speaker, if you're not then I'm sorry and I'm not trying to insult you
Native English speaker?
I'll do you one better.
I'm an English teacher.
That isn't what your statement said.![]()
Who is Tony's partner and why?
That isn't me being a teammate of Tony.Epi isn't a current wagon and is getting a pass for no clear reason so that could maybe be a hit? but I'm not, like, confident of that
You are mafia.![]()
before I brought you up no one was particularly interested in pressuring you for no clear reason, people who are getting zero pressure when no one townreads them and no one can really even point to a reason they're town are >>rand Mafia
your response to me switching my vote to you was actually awful, you OMGUS-voted me while inventing a reason that involved blatantly misconstruing my sentence. when further pressured for reasons you came up with reasons that were actively illogical and contradictory to the point that I have a hard time seeing it as anything but trying to invent reasons where they don't exist so that your vote looks more justified
you claim to be dissatisfied with the threadstate but have done nothing to change it for the first 46 hours of the day, as far as I can tell you did not care about it at all until you were being pressured. your actions are inconsistent with your supposed mindset.
none of these reasons are 'you are specifically aligned with Tony based on associations' but that doesn't make them invalid
- Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:28 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Escape From Russia [GAME OVER]
- Replies: 6039
- Views: 60610
Re: Escape From Russia [Day 5]
not dyingHally wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:22 pmbut it’s not me arete
what things did he do that pinged you?
immediately jumping to using the Wilgy nightkill to shade me (which, I'm probably biased because I'm a villager, but besides 'Ash is a wolf' the obvious explanation FMPoV for 'why did Wilgy die' is 'to shade me', obviously if Ash is a villager he doesn't know that I'm a villager but him jumping to using it shade me is consistent with how I think wolves would want to use the nightkill, also the way he was like 'wait, let me go quote something' and then made a second post to quote the read felt kind of performative)
shading me but not actually calling me a wolf
I still find Epi wolfier than him
- Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:21 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Escape From Russia [GAME OVER]
- Replies: 6039
- Views: 60610
- Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:18 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Escape From Russia [GAME OVER]
- Replies: 6039
- Views: 60610
Re: Escape From Russia [Night 3]
oh that's actually a good pointAsh Lael wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:15 pmEpi could have died to poison though.Arete wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:14 pmif I were a wolf and I were going to kill someone for saying I was scum, I'd kill Epi, not the person people were saying was my likeliest partnerAsh Lael wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:12 pm
Spoiler: show
- Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:14 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Escape From Russia [GAME OVER]
- Replies: 6039
- Views: 60610
Re: Escape From Russia [Night 3]
if I were a wolf and I were going to kill someone for saying I was scum, I'd kill Epi, not the person people were saying was my likeliest partnerAsh Lael wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:12 pm
- Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:11 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Escape From Russia [GAME OVER]
- Replies: 6039
- Views: 60610
Re: Escape From Russia [Night 4]
I think it kind of makes sense for there to be a scum doc with LC's role, like, I feel like 'autokill the wolf who killed you with almost no counterplay if you die at night' is kinda OPAsh Lael wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:05 pmMmm. A scum doc is a really weird thing to imagine, but I see what you're saying. It's what Nook was saying too.Arete wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:01 pmI feel likeAsh Lael wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 9:53 pmYeah, I figured that as well. I'm a bit surprised to be here.Arete wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 9:50 pmok so to clarify this: I figured that scum would want to not kill someone who might die to the virus (especially if Hally was town)
I checked and the only two living people who fit that criterion are Ash and Wilgy
them killing Wilgy here is lowkey making me paranoid about Ash, but
It's seems like Hally really does have some sort of doctor ability though so maybe she's town and it was a doc dodge?
ok so I haven't played on this site before so I don't know what people here consider balanced
but 15p Mountainous is considered balanced or slightly scumsided on most competitive-ish sites, JoaT^2 is considered slightly townsided on most sites
town having 2 docs + a poisoner in a 15p with 3 Mafia is more townsided than JoaT^2, I'm pretty sure, so I feel like that wouldn't be balanced and it's really unlikely that a hypothetical town doc would exist in this set-up
the two worlds I can think of where it might count as balanced are:
- if the poisoner is being treated as a negative utility role for balance purposes. I think this is unlikely because ... it literally autopoisons the wolf who killed them if it dies ...
- if there's a 3p (apparently this site likes those) + 2 Mafia alive right now. This is probably actually possible but I'm choosing to ignore this world because I don't think town can win in it, and game theory says that if it's impossible for you to win if X is true you should play as if X is never true
basically what I'm saying is that I think it's highly unlikely that there is a town doc alive
...honestly the thing that doesn't make sense about a scum doc is why they wouldn't have healed Tony N1
but I don't really think two town docs and a town poisoner makes sense from a set-up balance perspective
- Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:05 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Escape From Russia [GAME OVER]
- Replies: 6039
- Views: 60610
Re: Escape From Russia [Day 5]
so if you're a villager (which I don't think you are, but entertaining it for the sake of argument)
then you're arguing that I, as Mafia, looked at V/V wagons with no one caring to change them, and randomly decided to try to CFD to a different villager for no reason rather than letting you all keep pushing your miselims on 112/Wilgy and taking 0 responsibility
your world makes no sense
- Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:02 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Escape From Russia [GAME OVER]
- Replies: 6039
- Views: 60610
- Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:01 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Escape From Russia [GAME OVER]
- Replies: 6039
- Views: 60610
Re: Escape From Russia [Night 4]
I feel likeAsh Lael wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 9:53 pmYeah, I figured that as well. I'm a bit surprised to be here.Arete wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 9:50 pmok so to clarify this: I figured that scum would want to not kill someone who might die to the virus (especially if Hally was town)
I checked and the only two living people who fit that criterion are Ash and Wilgy
them killing Wilgy here is lowkey making me paranoid about Ash, but
It's seems like Hally really does have some sort of doctor ability though so maybe she's town and it was a doc dodge?
ok so I haven't played on this site before so I don't know what people here consider balanced
but 15p Mountainous is considered balanced or slightly scumsided on most competitive-ish sites, JoaT^2 is considered slightly townsided on most sites
town having 2 docs + a poisoner in a 15p with 3 Mafia is more townsided than JoaT^2, I'm pretty sure, so I feel like that wouldn't be balanced and it's really unlikely that a hypothetical town doc would exist in this set-up
the two worlds I can think of where it might count as balanced are:
- if the poisoner is being treated as a negative utility role for balance purposes. I think this is unlikely because ... it literally autopoisons the wolf who killed them if it dies ...
- if there's a 3p (apparently this site likes those) + 2 Mafia alive right now. This is probably actually possible but I'm choosing to ignore this world because I don't think town can win in it, and game theory says that if it's impossible for you to win if X is true you should play as if X is never true
basically what I'm saying is that I think it's highly unlikely that there is a town doc alive
- Mon Oct 19, 2020 9:52 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Escape From Russia [GAME OVER]
- Replies: 6039
- Views: 60610
Re: Escape From Russia [Night 4]
ok so removing pairings that involve Nanook or Wilgy I get:Arete wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 3:35 pm I think whether Hally/Nanook is a viable pairing depends entirely on whether scum!Hally has a way to stop themself from being poisoned
if they *do* have a way to do that then bussing them there yesterday doesn't really make sense? I think scum would probably leave scum!Hally for another day there
if they *don't* have a way to do that then bussing them is fairly plausible, since they're dying anyway and it allows scum to potentially get some slight cred as well as making yesterday kind of useless
Ash/Wilgy
Ash/Epi
Ash/Hally
Ash/Nanook
Ash/Poison
Wilgy/Nanook
Wilgy/Poison
Epi/Hally
Epi/Nanook
Epi/Poison
Hally/Nanook*
Hally/Poison
Nanook/Poison
Ash/Epi
Ash/Hally
Ash/Poison
Epi/Hally
Epi/Poison
Hally/Poison
...and that's, like, all the pairings that are possible with this set of players and everything I did overnight was useless
:wowee:
- Mon Oct 19, 2020 9:50 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Escape From Russia [GAME OVER]
- Replies: 6039
- Views: 60610
Re: Escape From Russia [Night 4]
ok so to clarify this: I figured that scum would want to not kill someone who might die to the virus (especially if Hally was town)
I checked and the only two living people who fit that criterion are Ash and Wilgy
them killing Wilgy here is lowkey making me paranoid about Ash, but
- Mon Oct 19, 2020 9:46 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Escape From Russia [GAME OVER]
- Replies: 6039
- Views: 60610
- Mon Oct 19, 2020 8:09 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Escape From Russia [GAME OVER]
- Replies: 6039
- Views: 60610
Re: Escape From Russia
Nanook it's a matrix game, the third PR has to be scum aligned
thinking we're most likely in set-up 1
(this is a joke but not, like, that much of a joke)
- Mon Oct 19, 2020 8:06 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Escape From Russia [GAME OVER]
- Replies: 6039
- Views: 60610
Re: Escape From Russia [Night 4]
Can I propose that we not give scum instructions for how to make an autowin more likely (if Hally is town etc.)
- Mon Oct 19, 2020 6:37 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Escape From Russia [GAME OVER]
- Replies: 6039
- Views: 60610
Re: Escape From Russia [Night 4]
me: tries to get down my thoughts overnight
the wolves that know that if both poisons land on villagers they win:
![Image](https://i.imgflip.com/t67q3.jpg)
the wolves that know that if both poisons land on villagers they win:
![Image](https://i.imgflip.com/t67q3.jpg)
Spoiler: show
- Mon Oct 19, 2020 4:41 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Escape From Russia [GAME OVER]
- Replies: 6039
- Views: 60610
Re: Escape From Russia [Night 4]
vaguely tempted to just not look at Ash pairings because he almost always dies tonight if he's a villager and I'm slightly lazy (not going to explain why Ash specifically in case wolves somehow haven't noticed)
- Mon Oct 19, 2020 3:35 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Escape From Russia [GAME OVER]
- Replies: 6039
- Views: 60610
Re: Escape From Russia [Night 4]
I think whether Hally/Nanook is a viable pairing depends entirely on whether scum!Hally has a way to stop themself from being poisoned
if they *do* have a way to do that then bussing them there yesterday doesn't really make sense? I think scum would probably leave scum!Hally for another day there
if they *don't* have a way to do that then bussing them is fairly plausible, since they're dying anyway and it allows scum to potentially get some slight cred as well as making yesterday kind of useless
Ash/Wilgy
Ash/Epi
Ash/Hally
Ash/Nanook
Ash/Poison
Wilgy/Nanook
Wilgy/Poison
Epi/Hally
Epi/Nanook
Epi/Poison
Hally/Nanook*
Hally/Poison
Nanook/Poison
if they *do* have a way to do that then bussing them there yesterday doesn't really make sense? I think scum would probably leave scum!Hally for another day there
if they *don't* have a way to do that then bussing them is fairly plausible, since they're dying anyway and it allows scum to potentially get some slight cred as well as making yesterday kind of useless
Ash/Wilgy
Ash/Epi
Ash/Hally
Ash/Nanook
Ash/Poison
Wilgy/Nanook
Wilgy/Poison
Epi/Hally
Epi/Nanook
Epi/Poison
Hally/Nanook*
Hally/Poison
Nanook/Poison
- Mon Oct 19, 2020 3:29 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Escape From Russia [GAME OVER]
- Replies: 6039
- Views: 60610
Re: Escape From Russia [Night 4]
I don't think a scum partner at risk of getting doinked by poison ever busses Wilgy there because if the bus goes through you potentially just autolose
so that's Hally and Epi, of Wilgy voters
Ash/Wilgy
Ash/Epi
Ash/Hally
Ash/Nanook
Ash/Poison
Wilgy/Nanook
Wilgy/Poison
Epi/Hally
Epi/Nanook
Epi/Poison
Hally/Nanook
Hally/Poison
Nanook/Poison
so that's Hally and Epi, of Wilgy voters
Ash/Wilgy
Ash/Epi
Ash/Hally
Ash/Nanook
Ash/Poison
Wilgy/Nanook
Wilgy/Poison
Epi/Hally
Epi/Nanook
Epi/Poison
Hally/Nanook
Hally/Poison
Nanook/Poison
- Mon Oct 19, 2020 3:27 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Escape From Russia [GAME OVER]
- Replies: 6039
- Views: 60610
Re: Escape From Russia [Night 4]
this is obviously assuming a 3-person team but I think that's a fair assumption for a 15er?
- Mon Oct 19, 2020 3:26 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Escape From Russia [GAME OVER]
- Replies: 6039
- Views: 60610
Re: Escape From Russia [Night 4]
Ash Lael
DrWilgy
Epignosis (replaced dunya)
Hally
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
Poison Chan
I'm just going to solve as if the game isn't ending tonight and if scum wins tonight then ... that'll suck, I guess
Ash/Wilgy
Ash/Epi
Ash/Hally
Ash/Nanook
Ash/Poison
Wilgy/Epi
Wilgy/Hally
Wilgy/Nanook
Wilgy/Poison
Epi/Hally
Epi/Nanook
Epi/Poison
Hally/Nanook
Hally/Poison
Nanook/Poison
if I ignore my reads this is what I start with
what can I rule out
DrWilgy
Epignosis (replaced dunya)
Hally
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
Poison Chan
I'm just going to solve as if the game isn't ending tonight and if scum wins tonight then ... that'll suck, I guess
Ash/Wilgy
Ash/Epi
Ash/Hally
Ash/Nanook
Ash/Poison
Wilgy/Epi
Wilgy/Hally
Wilgy/Nanook
Wilgy/Poison
Epi/Hally
Epi/Nanook
Epi/Poison
Hally/Nanook
Hally/Poison
Nanook/Poison
if I ignore my reads this is what I start with
what can I rule out
- Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:50 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Escape From Russia [GAME OVER]
- Replies: 6039
- Views: 60610
Re: Escape From Russia [Night 4]
[mention]NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME[/mention]
why did you switch your vote EoD at without posting at all
why did you switch your vote EoD at without posting at all
- Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:41 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Escape From Russia [GAME OVER]
- Replies: 6039
- Views: 60610
Re: Escape From Russia [Night 4]
not reallyEpignosis wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:39 pmPisses you off, doesn't it?Arete wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:36 pmit's almost like your entire ""case""" consists of taking things I said several days ago out of context and ignoring everything else that might be relevant if it contradicts the agenda you're pushingEpignosis wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:33 pmIt's almost like....you are...DrWilgy's...teammate.Arete wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:31 pm...yes, in a post on D2 I had Wilgy as more likely to flip scum than 112Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:27 pmYou could have sorted that Wilgy was bad. You didn't. You called Wilgy bad above 112 in a previous post.Arete wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:24 pm like
I thought the wagons were V/V
ultimately I decided to vote the one that had several of my villagereads over the one that had my strongest wolfread
if Wilgy is a wolf then I'll feel dumb in postgame, I guess, but either way I was voting someone I believed to be a villager
You saved Wilgy.
I will vote you until you are dead.
Do you hear me?
I will vote you until you are dead.
that is a true statement about my reads on D2!!!
it's almost like ... some of my reads on D4 ... were different from my reads on D2...
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
sucky pushes made by people I think are wolves don't actually bother me that much? I'm way more bothered by pushes from people I think are villagers but you aren't, so
- Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:40 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Escape From Russia [GAME OVER]
- Replies: 6039
- Views: 60610
Re: Escape From Russia [Night 4]
Epi: 'Mafia are satisfied with the threadstate, clearly we need to rethink consensus'
also Epi: 'you are a wolf with the person who spent basically the entire day as the top wagon with no one actively caring at all which wagon got voted out'
also Epi: 'you are a wolf with the person who spent basically the entire day as the top wagon with no one actively caring at all which wagon got voted out'
- Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:36 pm
- Forum: Previous Heists
- Topic: Escape From Russia [GAME OVER]
- Replies: 6039
- Views: 60610
Re: Escape From Russia [Night 4]
it's almost like your entire ""case""" consists of taking things I said several days ago out of context and ignoring everything else that might be relevant if it contradicts the agenda you're pushingEpignosis wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:33 pmIt's almost like....you are...DrWilgy's...teammate.Arete wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:31 pm...yes, in a post on D2 I had Wilgy as more likely to flip scum than 112Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:27 pmYou could have sorted that Wilgy was bad. You didn't. You called Wilgy bad above 112 in a previous post.Arete wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:24 pm like
I thought the wagons were V/V
ultimately I decided to vote the one that had several of my villagereads over the one that had my strongest wolfread
if Wilgy is a wolf then I'll feel dumb in postgame, I guess, but either way I was voting someone I believed to be a villager
You saved Wilgy.
I will vote you until you are dead.
Do you hear me?
I will vote you until you are dead.
that is a true statement about my reads on D2!!!
it's almost like ... some of my reads on D4 ... were different from my reads on D2...
¯\_(ツ)_/¯