The Syndicate

I'm imagining a world where I'm having a neat conversation with Marl while he's plotting my demise in wolfchat as we speak.

That's actually great, since I doubt I'll be able to share all my thoughts today (busy weekend ahead). Hope you're not a wolf.

I'm town <3 ))))))))))))

dyachei wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 11:35 am I think your townread of alison is naive. I think it looks at level 1 play and I think alison plays at a higher level than that.

do you think there was actually a chance kza gets elimmed yesterday?

What's the "higher-level" play Alison would've been doing there? Explain what you think her motivations for this could've been.

There was a real KZA wagon at various points d1, including EoD. He doesn't survive n1 99% of the time because of the n1 vig existing and the various calls to vig him, but there was the 1% chance of the vig getting roleblocked which I'm trying to take into account.

dyachei wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 11:32 am vulgard - how many games have you played with alison?

Two on The Syndicate, both times as wolf partners, and one hydra game on MU where our slots were both V and she died N1. I found her a pretty easy townread in the game where she was town, and in our wolfgames together I treated her in a specific manner to help her go deep. Worked in one game, didn't work in another.

I also read her CoV ISO, where she was town, and I'm somewhat familiar with her recent Mountainous wolfgame on MU but not 100%.

I think I've been fairly consistent in saying that you haven't been exclusively tunneling Alison, but that your read on Alison is definitely the highlight of your contributions so far. It's the first thing I associate with you in this game, outside of the constant defensive attitude. The defensive attitude part is something I could see being NAI based on how I saw you play as town sometimes, but yeah.

Speaking of reads outside of Alison, do the flips give you more reads outside of Alison? What do you think @ my townread of Alison?

Amy:

- Agrees with SPF that Gavial is probably mafia. This is her first mention of Gavial in her posts.
- Votes Gavial.
- Continues to imply Gavial is mafia. The phrasing she uses implies 100% confidence. "I'd be more pressed to talk about other potential wolves if we didn't have Gavial sitting right there."
- Already thinks about bussing votes on Gavial in her next post. Preflips Hally as mafia based off it (incorrectly).
- Makes a massive PoE containing Gavial/Dya/Hally/Arete/Alison/KZA.
- Claims that Gavial flipping W makes Alison less likely to be V. Still 0 reconsideration of Gavial. This fact alone doesn't make me suspicious, it's the instant jump to the conclusion Gavial is W and preflipping off it. Once directly, once implied (with Alison), and this is only the sixth mention of Gavial among Amy's posts. The weird part about these preflips is that mafia!Amy knows these preflips are incorrect, because Gavial's W. If Gavial flips D1, like Amy apparently wanted, then his green flip invalidates the reads she makes based on those preflips. I think it's possible she made those preflip reads because it was easier that way; Gavial flipping V can prompt wolf!Amy to just go "oops" and invalidate these reads, thus taking no blame for making them since the premise was wrong.
- Continues to claim Gavial is a wolf.
- Claims that Alison isn't Gavial's partner because of her treatment of him, but if Gavial is somehow town, she will votepark on Alison for the entirety of D2. This is a very, very slimy preflip considering what I think about Alison at the moment.
- Claims that Alison's calling Gavial's behavior NAI to reduce the traction on Gavial's wagon. A ton of her reads surrounding the Gavial thing are predicated on Gavial being a wolf. This is a very narrow, tunnely POV. I was among the main Gavial pushers day 1 and I don't remember making preflips like this with actual confidence, if at all.
- Asks dya if she has opinions on Gavial, because she thinks Gavial's a wolf. This looks like she's trying to convince dyachei to vote for Gavial.
- Claims that her not envisioning a v!Gavial world is because misyeeting him isn't a problem, whereas misyeeting someone like dya is a problem. This looks like a pocket on dyachei, because dyachei'd felt vindicated by the thread. I could see it as a W/W move to defend your partner, though. Also, this gives her justification to keep tunneling.
- Outright says killing KZA is less important than killing Gavial.
- Townreads dya after dya votes Gavial. This actually feels pockety and not partnered, weirdly enough. It's like Amy's read on dya is predicated on whether dya votes Gavial with her, and that would be a really odd interaction for it to be W/W. I could still see it being W/W, but I find it unlikely.
- Final reads are: vulgard sunbae nutella spf and "maybe hally" town, dya trending up but not fully there, kill KZA.

The funny thing here is that she's townreading the entire KZA wagon and wolfreading KZA, while out of the Gavial voters, she only townreads me. Dya is a tentative townread for her, another Gavial vote there, but other than that, she doesn't townread any of the Gavial voters.

I'm surprised Amy didn't go "wagon formation indicates all my villagers are on KZA, maybe the Gavial wagon is wrong" or anything like that. She wants KZA dead and townreads his entire wagon, but still goes for Gavial, thus giving wolf!KZA a chance to use his rolecop. Her POV looks very inconsistent. It's like she wants to take a strong stance against KZA, but still wishes to get a Gavial misyeet day 1 despite most of her villagers voting away from the Gavial wagon.

If Amy's mafia, this looks slightly better for SPF and nutella (living KZA EOD1 voters) for complicated reasons I don't know how to explain.

Overall, the macro picture looks really bad. Amy has not once seriously considered the possibility of Gavial flipping V, she made preflips based on Gavial's W flip, she gave dya a townread that seemed predicated on dya voting Gavial with her, and has a continually narrow POV. The thing that separates this from "tunneled villager" from me is that the Gavial push colors her entire day 1 game and a lot of her reads warp around it. The narrowness of that perspective is wolfy to me because we're in a skilled playerlist and I'd expect V!Amy to be more flexible with her evaluation, both of Gavial and of other players. I myself am guilty of calling Gavial a wolf a lot, but I at least tried to hear Arete out about it, etc. while Amy has been spending most of her time convincing people to vote Gavial. She tries to convince dya to vote there, she evaluates Alison strictly based on her treatment of Gavial, she does mention KZA a few times but always as lower-priority in comparison to Gavial. Her first post about Gavial is basically agreeing with SPF right away that Gavial's mafia. This I find more likely to be aimed at a V!SPF if Amy's mafia, just because it's the earlygame and openly aligning with your partner like that is a super bold move. But that's beside the point.

I think Amy's probably a wolf. Dya might be a wolf as well - there are a few interactions I could see being W/W - but I don't necessarily think they are 100% aligned, because some of these interactions leave some room for doubt fmpov. Specifically the way Amy's read on dya evolves in relation to whether dya votes Gavial or not. Will read dya later to verify from their end, though.

The - s are in chronological order.

Alison:

- Assumes that Gavial is "anti-town" rather than "mafia" in her very first post about Gavial. Calls his behavior NAI despite the presence of metareads in the thread at that point. (Nevermind that those meta reads were wrong, this is still important.)
- Calls Gavial "rand" and calls the people who vote for him based on him being anti-town "lazy."
- Claims Dizzy defending Gavial is a good look for Dizzy because it'd be a bad move for wolf!Dizzy regardless of Gavial's alignment. I actually agree with this point. Mentions that there's a solid chance of Gavial being a wolf.
- Responds to Amy's wolfread on Gavial by saying she isn't closed off to the possibility of Gavial being mafia.
- "I'm not ready to lock Gavial town." Weird progression jump there. It's like she's bouncing around a limbo where she sometimes implies Gavial's town and sometimes doesn't. This megahedge is odd.
- Calls Gavial's level of caring about the game NAI, thus continuing to refuse to call Gavial's alignment.
- Claims she isn't a Gavial expert.
- Continues to push the line that Gavial's NAI to her.
- Calls Gavial's VT claim kinda towny.

I... think this looks towny when viewed as a whole and in-context? KZA was the main CW yesterday, and KZA was a wolf. Alison spending the entire day refusing to call Gavial's alignment doesn't seem like a wolf play. I think she'd take one of two stances here: either bus or just push Gavial and listen to people's metareads. I'd even argue doing the latter benefits Alison more - not only does she get a misyeet, but she takes no blame for it, since she had given a lot of consideration toward Gavial's alignment and she wasn't the person with the mistaken metareads on Gavial. Her calling Gavial's VT claim "kinda towny" close to EoD also makes it more likely KZA gets yeeted, which prevents the wolves from getting a rolecop check. Their chances of getting it were tiny last night, since KZA was always getting vigged (they'd have to RB exactly the vig), and KZA would go day 2 anyway in that case. Still, it would be beneficial for the wolves (1 rolecop check is better than 0), and Alison didn't go for it. My impression of her wolfgame is that she knows what's optimal and what isn't. In that case, she didn't have much to lose by just accepting the Gavial push and joining it. In fact, her contrarian stance on Gavial is what got her scumread in the first place, yet another point in favor of Alison being town.

Might not be able to get all of these out, but I wanted to get this one out specifically.

Dizzy's take on KZA's sparse ISO is the one I agree with the most. Specifically with Nutella being a likely villager because it's KZA's first townread. And also because nutella has a somewhat polarized meta as far as I understand it, making townreading wolf!nutella there redundant since they'll be outed anyway.

I'm finally caught up and I think Amy's day phase so far hasn't been great. The vote on Alison specifically skeeves me out, because I've read all these arguments about dya/Amy having partner equity, and her suddenly voting the person dya's been pushing all game feels wrong. She's been going through the motions and posting reads, reads I actually didn't hate, but then she goes completely against them and decides to follow dya on their Alison wagon. It looks like she's trying to get a misyeet on Alison before she and her partner dya get yeeted. Dya being the other top wagon at the moment adds credibility to this theory.

At this point my read on Alison is less dependent on Alison and more on how her slot's been treated throughout the game. If Amy/dya are wolves then Alison is pretty much always town. If Amy/dya are town, more specifically dya, Alison's probably a wolf. In that world, I'm simply inclined to believe dya's right about their non-consensus wolfread. I specifically get flashback to Champs finale where this exact thing happened.

I usually hate preflips but yeah.

Might change my mind about this when I get to ISOing.

Oh, and by the way. I'm not a player 100% confident in all my reads, but I will confidently push my reads. This is the first time I was wrong on Gavial's alignment, and honestly, I still can't reconcile that. Which is why I'm taking a more laid-back approach today and not going for another push that might end up being wrong.

Visor is a wolf.

I do not have an argument to back this up.

Discuss.

Chloe wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 2:24 am

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 2:13 am the only reservation i have about this read is that i don't really know what vulgard's wolfgame is like, or how competent they are as a wolf in general. do you know?

i'd like to say yes but honestly its been so long since i've played with vulgard that my memory of his wolfgame is incredibly thin and i cant give a proper rundown. the only thing i remember is reading his posts and going 'yeah this wasnt written by a villager lol' and his tone being more.. aggressive. he just didnt feel like himself
just going off of my distant memory this doesnt feel like wolfgard - and i think i'd spot him pretty easily if it was

https://forum.throneoflies.com/t/countr ... 2-24/84932

My most recent wolfgame is here if anyone would like to have a point of reference.

I'm going to do a TMI hunt later today, nobody seems to have done this before me.

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 1:49 am

outed wolf wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 1:43 am Any thoughts on Amy or dyslexicon SPF?

i feel like i should wolfread dyslexicon for their posts about KZA toward the EOD, but i don't

any wolfteam with basic gamestate awareness would be aware that KZA's days were numbered, and there were multiple calls for KZA to be vigged/killed regardless of gavial's flip. what does dizzy gain by dropping a hard and passionate defense of KZA right as the day was ending? i doubt that he thought that he could single handedly change peoples opinions on KZA within the short amount of time left within d1, and i remain feeling that dizzy is more likely to be a villager than to be a wolf

honestly, i think that amy's progression on KZA is wolfy on paper. it looks like a textbook w/w progression - amy throws shade on KZA throughout d1 that grows incrementally with the thread consensus, but does not go out of her way to spearhead suspicion against them, and makes posts that push the game in the direction of a gavial chop while still positioning themselves in a good way by saying to "kill KZA with prejudice" right before the day ended

i'm trying to reconcile my concern about amy's progression on KZA with my general good feelings about her on d1. i don't have an answer for you yet

I agree it was out of place, much like their defense of Gavial. I don't think a wolf with TMI on wagons being W/V decides to defend both of them without even offering an alternative. Dizzy would have to be like "I'm going to sit here and deprive myself of options, you vote whoever you like but I'm defending an easy mischop and my wolf partner who hasn't posted anything good." Pretty sure at this point you either commit to a bus or to a defense.

The only thing giving me pause is potential refuge in audacity but it doesn't seem to give Dizzy much of an advantage. It just makes Dizzy look bad.

nutella wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 1:41 am

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 1:02 am @Chloe -

i gotta admit, a big part of the reason why i said that you were "tonally uncomfortable" was because of the way that you talked about the dynamic between me and sunbae in this post: https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 54#p801154. reading that post activated my fight or flight instinct. the specific language of: "Sunbae imemdiately hopping into it and spotting inconsistencies was a big feelsgoodman" was just ...odd, because sunbae wasn't really even pointing out inconsistencies in the guide, and that's not what the main conversation was even about. it felt like an analysis that you made after very briefly skimming through our engagement instead of really digging into it and figuring out what we were talking about

my gut reaction to that post made me interpret the rest of your posts through the lens of: "Chloe Is Hiding Something". i don't really know how i feel about you right now even though i lightly townread your predecessor on d1

ive seen the exchange following this post but just want to say that i dont understand this take at all. chloe doesn't have to fully unpack all the ins and outs of the argument to make the observation that sunbae investigating stuff like that is villagery

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 1:31 am

KZA wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:25 pm

bronana wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:24 pm

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:23 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:19 pm I'm not closed off to the possibility he's just a wolf.

Someone tell me why I hate this line so much

Is it
The tiptoeing?
The vacuousness?
The fact that this is only coming now from Ms. Akemi "Check The Easy Worlds First" Homura and with so little conviction in the sequence from start to finish?

Your guess is as good as mine.

now that you mention it alison voicing hesitancy over killing a LHF is strange

I don't think it is, she did a similar thing with me in Congress of Vienna where she was town

thoughts on this post?

im fairly convinced that every other single player that KZA talked about in their ISO (gavial, hally, myself, nutella) is a villager. so after TMI'ing a bunch of people as villagers, does KZA pop in to drop a defense of their wolf partner? is that their style?

this is def the one i was most concerned about -- i think the previous kza stuff was likely all tmi, but this one hits different somehow, and i think kza/alison can be teammates

Marluxion wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 1:35 am

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 1:31 am

KZA wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:25 pm

bronana wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:24 pm

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:23 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:19 pm I'm not closed off to the possibility he's just a wolf.

Someone tell me why I hate this line so much

Is it
The tiptoeing?
The vacuousness?
The fact that this is only coming now from Ms. Akemi "Check The Easy Worlds First" Homura and with so little conviction in the sequence from start to finish?

Your guess is as good as mine.

now that you mention it alison voicing hesitancy over killing a LHF is strange

I don't think it is, she did a similar thing with me in Congress of Vienna where she was town

thoughts on this post?

im fairly convinced that every other single player that KZA talked about in their ISO (gavial, hally, myself, nutella) is a villager. so after TMI'ing a bunch of people as villagers, does KZA pop in to drop a defense of their wolf partner? is that their style?

i think the takeaway from that post should be different
it's possible alison is also town but i think bronana should be p close to hard v from the way kza is talking to him

perhaps thats a good point too aaa


damn i just
love agreeing with half my wolfreads about the other half of my wolfreads

Nutella is still a villager.

The last wolfgame I saw Dya play was in a hydra with Amy on MU and I didn't really notice a WiM tell, even though they were the last wolf alive for some time. I'm mostly asking people with experience playing with Dya if their current behavior is AI at all. (I mean the feeling of being vindicated Dya's projecting.)

This is a really dumb thought, but what are the odds of more than one wolf having lower wim in this playerlist? (KZA was either wimless or terrible at wolfing. Or both.) I have no experience with most of the players here. Who would you consider the best / highest-WiM wolves on this playerlist?

I'm currently undecided whether dya having significantly less analysis and high-effort content than most other players in this game (lolKZA) is because:

- they're telling the truth about playing with lower effort due to this being a light game

OR

- dya is a wolf

The narrow focus on Alison is also a thing. Alison could be a wolf, in which case I think Dya looks significantly better. That would roughly match what happened in Champs Finale, where dya had a wolf on their radar that nobody else did, but nobody would listen to dya for a while until later in the game. I also don't see a point of dya hellbussing Alison when most of the playerlist either has no read on Alison or village reads her. If Alison's a villager, that paints Dya in a really bad light because then the push looks like refuge in audacity with no drawback (if people actually listen to you you aren't killing your partner).

Marluxion wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 7:31 am

Vulgard wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 7:04 am I sometimes forget Marl's in the game and this isn't a good sign. I'm going to read his recent MU wolfgame.

You should probably read reflections in the mountaintop instead because it includes a good chunk of this playerlist and i think it's the most similar to how i've played this game

also no idea how you forgot i'm in this game since i was almost postcapped d1 with very little fluffposting
that seems more of a you problem rather than a me problem

Were you a wolf in that game?

And about the last part: maybe. I felt great about you when we first started posting together in the thread but now I'm having some doubts.

outed wolf wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 8:40 pm

Arete wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 8:37 pm

outed wolf wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 8:32 pm

Arete wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 8:29 pm

outed wolf wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 7:31 pm

Arete wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 7:29 pm

bronana wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 7:27 pm

is his godread on you as good as his godread on gavial?

his godread on me is real and supported by an extensive history of games as both V/V and V/W

much like his extensive history of games with seth eh?

I'm sort of mrrr about how Outed Wolf is trying to discredit townreads on me/reasons to townread me without actually pushing for me to get killed (or even really expressing more than a slight scumread on me)

it kind of feels like he's trying to make sure that I'm a viable push for the future but doesn't want to get his hands dirty pushing me now

LOL

hilarious post - i said i thought you were a villager yesterday, the post is making light of vulgard not you

alright, what was your motivation behind discrediting Vul's reads?

... because he was wrong? he spent like 80 posts yesterday saying how much of a gavial god reader he was and that we couldnt let gavial slip away and we had to kill gavial

with his EXTENSIVE history of catching gavial and hes NEVER BEEN WRONG BEFORE

and he was wrong.

W R O N G
R
O
N
G

INCORRECT

NOT RIGHT

so i gave him a bit of shit for it

Okay, I laughed.

I still have no read on Alison.

@c4e5g3d5 You were making these weird a aA or something reads on day 1. I thought your later reads / readlist would make it obvious why you were doing that, but they didn't. What was up with that?

sunbae wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 9:29 pm I kinda wanna just yeet alison, marl, and nutella into the great sky daddy yee haw

Why Nutella?

Chloe is pretty obviously town. People have called her nervous but this isn't nervous Chloe. Nervous Chloe is wolf Chloe and I'm generally decent at interpreting her posts this way. Her posts read like genuine Chloe who replaced into a town slot and is ready to solve the game. Wolf!Chloe's entrance into the thread would likely be slower, more meticulous, and less aggressive.

Also I'd townread Tangrowth pretty hard. (I'll miss you. Hope you get to resolve whatever- yeah.)

Chloe wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 1:15 am i have never seen beta marluxion

my brain does not know what to do

ioagjeaognjlaegjengjagioe

SPF insisting that KZA has only townread actual villagers doesn't sit right with me, even though she hasn't seen my response yet. It's a really bold claim to make about a wolf who's been posting like garbage from the start of the game. It's an implication KZA wasn't in antispew at all and decided to TMI a bunch of villagers despite knowing he would flip quickly. Is his wolfgame demonstrably so terrible that he'd do that? And even if it is, what's stopping his partners from telling him to go into antispew considering he was a consensus scumread and likely wouldn't survive for long?

I'm kinda townreading Dya for their consistent frustration over being scumread, but at the same time I can only mildly townread them for it for so long. This and their Alison scumread they've been repping for a while are the only things I remember Dya doing, while most other players have voiced reads on every other player in the game, done significant analysis, etc.

Finals of Champs! dya was also kinda boxed in (haha, ha) by similar circumstances but I remember them having more takes there?

I sometimes forget Marl's in the game and this isn't a good sign. I'm going to read his recent MU wolfgame.

Arete wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 8:15 pm

sunbae wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 7:55 pm Arete, can you let me know as briefly as possible why at eod you were approaching the game from a "I don't want people to turn on Vulgard so here's a long explanation of a villa read" perspective when if Gav flipped wolf nobody would ever be questioning Vul yet would start to ponder that alignment if Gav flipped villa? This is not a gotcha or a post to shade you, this is flat out just a question hoping I can get a better handle of your pov as eod went down.

I mostly wasn't thinking about Gavial's flip at all (although I did think they were more likely to flip town than scum), I was more thinking, like, if I randomly died N1 or N2 or something, and he were still alive on D4, he's the general-sort-of-player the thread might turn on, particularly if his reads turned out to be wrong (townread for relatively nebulous reasons, not close friends with anyone outside the FoL crowd afaik, nobody except me had particularly strong meta on him) and I wanted to make sure that didn't happen

if Gavial had actually been a wolf I don't think people would have been likely to immediately turn on him but I don't think that really would have reduced the likelihood of people turning on him on day 4, no one was going to give anyone cred for a Gavial hit, although I wasn't specifically thinking about that possibility at EoD

also I didn't care about the wagons, like, at all and I didn't really have strong reads other than Vul but I wanted to do something so that I didn't feel totally useless

Distinctly V!Arete perspective in this entire post unless they've learned to fake it.

Particularly one part I don't want to point out for Arete's sake.

Arete wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 12:48 am ...still catching up but at some point within the past ?few minutes? Gavial seems to have silently voted me on the poll, and not in the thread, despite literally never mentioning me at any point previously

which is baffling and kind of makes me think that he's badly attempting to spew me as his partner? or something?

First post.

Arete wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 1:04 am ...so the good news is that Gavial's town stocks are rapidly rising

Spoiler: show

the bad news is that Gavial's town stocks are rapidly rising

This post didn't make me townread Arete when they made it, but it looks great in hindsight. Wolf Arete has no reason for this turnaround, they can just keep going with the misyeet. Also, the way they phrased this thought doesn't make much sense as mafia. "Dammit, Gavial's town, I'm going to admit that in the thread for no reason when the other wagon is my wolf partner KZA, this is surely pro-wincon."

Arete wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 2:10 am

Vulgard wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 4:12 pm Arete, do you have any reason to think c4 is town beyond the readlist thing?

no

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 4:13 pm I HARD SHIELD GAVIAL.

...why? like I get not being confident either way on him but he really hasn't done anything villagery

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 4:28 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 4:15 pm

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 4:13 pm I HARD SHIELD GAVIAL.

do you think his posts are town-indicative, or is this a meme

I think they are null indicative and he should stay in the game.

again, why is that a reason he should stay in the game

...Wait. I said nothing. Arete thinks that Gavial's town equity is rising, but also questions Dizzy NOT wanting to kill Gavial. But then I remember them claiming Gavial might be town, closer to EoD. ...Huh? Confusing progression. Arete acknowledges Gavial might be town after first reading him as mafia, but then questions other people who don't want to kill Gavial, implying Arete thinks Gavial's mafia after all, but then I remember Arete's posts closer to EoD that Gavial might be a villager...?

I kinda want to townread this because I get the impression it would be more pro-wincon for Arete to take a stronger stance instead of going back and forth the entire day. Especially when KZA, a wolf, was one of the yeet options. To be fair, we were always going to vig KZA, but at least there was a chance for survival if the wolves blocked the vig. Which didn't happen, instead they killed the vig, but that's beside the point.

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 6:44 pm

KZA wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 9:30 pm k nutella is good and spicy and hally cut me off to mindmeld me so those are my towns

KZA wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 11:45 pm SPF saying "this is a wolf" at this stage feels pretty good and similar to how she did it in Fargo as town

Personally I have 0 confidence in reading Gavial tho

KZA wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:24 pm hot(?) take is that Gavial received way too much heat from too many directions for his 4 post entrance and is probably just town

KZA wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:25 pm

bronana wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:24 pm

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:23 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:19 pm I'm not closed off to the possibility he's just a wolf.

Someone tell me why I hate this line so much

Is it
The tiptoeing?
The vacuousness?
The fact that this is only coming now from Ms. Akemi "Check The Easy Worlds First" Homura and with so little conviction in the sequence from start to finish?

Your guess is as good as mine.

now that you mention it alison voicing hesitancy over killing a LHF is strange

I don't think it is, she did a similar thing with me in Congress of Vienna where she was town

it feels to me like KZA's attempts to get into the game involved them accidentally TMI'ing a bunch of people as villagers. they correctly called gavial a villager, they correctly called hally a villager, they correctly called me a villager, and i'm tempted to believe that the other townreads they dropped are ~more likely to be town than not. i don't know if kza, who knew that they would die before long, would bother popping into the thread to defend alison if alison was partnered w/them. i also think their treatment of nutella points even more to nutella being town.

there might be a drop-off in presence from me today - i have a lot going on this weekend. there are thoughts rattling around in my brain but they haven't fully developed yet

KZA hasn't done anything of note for the entire game. Not sure if wolves actually coach each other, especially in a game like this, but he must've known he was going to die? I mean, his posting was just awful, and there was an n1 vig. The idea all his fake village reads were all on town doesn't sit right with me. If he only townread villagers, that means he didn't even try to antispew despite awful posting from the start. I find that a bit unlikely.

I wouldn't say "nutella/Alison/SPF guaranteed 1 wolf between them" but I wouldn't call them all town based on KZA's townreads.

There'll be a drop-off from me as well. I can only really play today since I have classes tomorrow and in 2 days, all day long. Plus some exams.

Chloe wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 6:07 pm bit busy today ao just a heads up
also i dont know how to post less than 150 times so this'll be a learning process. bear with me

@Vulgard u n me, boo
we're a 3-way masonry with nut
ily

also why the friiiiiiiiiiiiick are people townreading both arete and marl lollllllllllllll
wassup

Marl has been dropping a fair bit in my mind since my initial read on him. I'm fairly confident Arete's V based on perspective in some of their posts d1. I can highlight them if you'd like.
In all fairness, I haven't read their d2 stuff yet, but that's why.

9 pages to catch up on, it'll be a while before I'm up to date again. I feel like a clown after the Gavial misyeet but at least there's a dead wolf.

Ping me if you want to talk to me about something, just be aware I didn't think about the game much during the night phase and that I'm not up-to-date on whatever's happened d2.

I haven't paid any attention to KZA other than noticing his ISO was devoid of anything of substance. =rand to me but wouldn't oppose killing.

I know I leaned wolf on him before, but it's been a long time since then, and his only attempt at engagement with me was a question about one thing only. I think a wolf in his position would at least pretend to engage instead of vanishing almost completely.

This is a dumb reason to clear him, though, and I won't shield him if people want him dead (which at least a couple of people do).

Also. DO NOT CLEAR THE GAVIAL WAGON. MAFIA GAVIAL WOULD BE GETTING BUSSED HERE. CLEAR PEOPLE FOR TREATMENT OF GAVIAL, NOT FOR PUSHING ON GAVIAL, IF ANYTHING.

For the sake of clarity, if Gavial flips V, same principle applies except for the "clearing" part.

sunbae wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 5:51 pm

outed wolf wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 5:48 pm To reiterate the point I made earlier I think tangrowth is not really engaging with the gamestate

I mean they talk to people and post lists and stuff but it's never for a purpose other than itself. I don't think I'm making this argument clear but it's like, posting reasonable posts but not caring about the outcome, they are fine on an individual level but taken as a whole you don't feel they care about ''''solving the game''' and instead it's just looking like they've given thought to stuff

yeah, tangrowth is firmly in my "wolf posting fine" range currently but we'll see how day 2 develops i guess

Okay, not my last post.

I read Tangrowth's ISO and everything surrounding her reads screamed village to me. I made a case for v!Tangrowth earlier today based on that.

Engagement and way of solving the game aside, I don't see how a wolf writes analysis the way she does and evolves her reads the way Tangrowth did. The read on Dizzy specifically would baffle me from a wolf perspective.

Reevaluate her lategame, maybe, but I'm fine giving her a pass for several days at least. I think her day 1 has actually been great when viewed in isolation. One of the most villagery ISOs I've read so far.

Disclaimer: I actually followed the thread because I'm addicted.

There's been some talk about not flipping Gavial. Don't even consider not flipping Gavial today. So many preflip reads have been made based on his future flip, so much of the discussion has revolved around him, that not learning his alignment with today's flip is a terrible idea. You could argue the vig can still shoot Gavial, but this still prevents drawing associations overnight, if anyone is into that. Besides, worst-case scenario, wolf roleblocker blocks the vig and we have to deal with Gavial d2. There's no way wolves ever kill him if he's somehow a villager.

If I'm wrong, this'll be the first time ever I'm wrong on Gavial's alignment, and I really don't think I'm wrong. Town Gavial wouldn't essentially openwolf here. Town Gavial is the king of tinfoil and insane worlds, he'd push a group of players he thought were wolves on his wagon. Here he's throwing in the towel and saying he's town but not really doing anything to leave a real legacy behind. He did call a few people wolves but it was complete weaksauce compared to what he's capable of as town. As town he will do anything to prove himself right (or wrong). As mafia, he pretends to be sure of his reads, but really he just tries to look like his tunnely town self and fails.

The worst part is that the arguments for v!Gavial are incomprehensible to me. I offered to link you games where I successfully cased wolf!Gavial (3/3 times I played with wolf!him) and nobody asked for it. I have reasons to believe my Gavial read is good. I've gotten him yeeted when he was mafia 3/3 times, and I've never mistakenly defended him.

@Arete You're familiar with most of these games. I still think you're town, but I don't know why we're getting the opposite impression from Gavial's posts. I think I've made my stance perfectly clear.

My last post for the day.

I forgot to say 69.

70/100 posts. 70% chance Gavial flips mafia goon. 30% chance he flips wolf PR.

I don't know what Visor is. A bit suspicious of Zack and SPF but it's nebulous. I have more reasons to townread SPF than I do to townread Zack.

I don't townread any of Hally, Dya, KZA. Hally's seemed off and deflated all game, plus their solving has been a bit rigid to me. Already talked about it before. Dya's been too self-conscious for my liking. I'm growing tired of the argument vs nutella, it doesn't seem to amount to anything and I have no idea how it supposedly helps dya get reads on people (if it does at all). Some people have been saying dya gets better with time so I hope to see that d2+. KZA just hasn't done anything whatsoever.

Alison hard null, I have no idea.

Still hard townreading Amy. Hard townreading Tangrowth at this point as well. Townreading Marl, Arete, nutella. Townleaning Dizzy and c4.

I don't know what my SPF read is anymore. At this point I'm paranoid I gave her too much credit for the string of posts I thought was towny from her.

I'm not going to get anywhere like this. I'll evaluate again d2 when we see some flips.

Hally wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 1:49 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 1:45 pm afaict nobody has a concrete read on zack unless i missed something

i dunno if this means anything, it’s just not what i would expect given who he is and this player list

cross-posting this with vulgard typing up a giant wall about how he has no concrete read on zack is kind of hilarious

About that.

Does he tend to be an easy read? You sound like you speak from experience.

I'm not planning to touch him today, but he seems like a likely candidate for a deepwolf given his d1 play so far. If we need to search for one later and I'm not alive for it, keep it in mind. His treatment of Gavial is also within the range of a bus, though he's currently vanity voting KZA.

I'm explaining this really badly.

He just comes across as the type of player who's a very competent wolf. The type of player I never trust even if they do rand V.

The worst thing in his ISO is the early string of posts where he tries hard to build a towncore and put himself in it. I can't multi-quote and ISO at the same time, so I'll just point at it: exactly the first 10 posts. Ending with the vote on nutella. It looks like a wolf gunning for a strong entrance and good thread position. I know "four pillars of the village" is a meme but it matches his proclaimed townreads from RVS/early game. The progression feels a tad mechanical. "Throw out a few townreads and then push people with those townreads, I'm in a good spot, let's get it."

I don't take much issue with his later posts other than being a bit paranoid while reading them. Him sitting back and watching things unfold for the 2nd half of his ISO should be NAI. He does ask a lot more questions at this point but he's already given reads on most players so I don't find that part wolfy.

Reading bronana's ISO.

His early posts look like he's trying to be townread. He's relaxed, charismatic, offers takes that look like he's smiling behind the screen. I can't tell how much he believes in any of them. Timing would indicate "not a lot" (RVS stage) but the fact he's still making them...

I don't know.

This ISO just makes me paranoid. There's nothing outright WRONG or super wolfy I see in it, but Zack gives me the impression of competence. I don't take issue with anything in particular he's said, but I can't bring myself to trust him and call him town. Especially since he shows signs of huge self-awareness.

bronana wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 6:08 pm goofy thought alert

sunbae immediately reading spf's self-meta wall from offsite but not reading tangy's whole reads wall is because sunbae/tangy are wolves and spf is town

this read is stupid and i debated whether or not to post it, then decided i'd go for it on the off chance someone calls me villagy for it

bronana wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 7:31 pm

Amy wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 7:23 pm

bronana wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 7:21 pm

Amy wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 7:15 pm wolves are in gavial/dya/hally/arete/alison/kza??? with a side helping of "i haven't done due diligence on visor yet"

marl could also be a wolf but i lean v for now

nobody else activates my fight or flight when i call them town so

possibly

seems a bit too straightforward "yes the wolves are the underwhelming people not posting much" though, I'd wager the actual team is more complex than that

fine as a place to start for day 1/2 though

i mean yes you're right that the names i listed are underwhelming and the names i didn't list aren't, and that does have shades of "too easy"

but i'd rather start in the easy world and run off on a snipe hunt later than do it the other way around, yknow?

gun to head if i were to pick people outside that pool who i haven't quite done diligence on and thus could be fooling me it's probably like. c4 mp7 you

a fine three names for you to bring up, i am somewhat surprised i've gotten such little heat

There's not a TON of that but it does give me pause.

Does anyone have a wolfgame of his I could read and verify? I want to figure out if his approach is different or mostly the same.

@staypositivefriend Did you prepare the link to your off-site post where you explain how people should read you pre-rand?

@Tangrowth There's one thing I've just noticed about your updated readlist. Me and Arete have both expressed doubt about your slot. It looks like you pushed us both further down your readlist for it. Why is that? Asking more about Arete than I'm asking about myself, but curious about both. Didn't notice other townreads moving down.

I'm finally on my PC and can look at Tangrowth's ISO.

Early on, she seems withdrawn from the game. She hasn't stuck her head out for anyone. She hasn't been involved in a controversial argument. Nothing. She's just been off by the wayside, doing her own solving. She adopted the role of thread moderator in a notable part of her ISO. I don't MIND that, but it's something a wolf can easily do because it doesn't force them to take stances.

A good thing is that her tone has been super friendly, but I'm trying to look past that. This playerlist is stacked, which is why I'm not giving anyone easy townreads/clears. And when I look past her tone, what I see is someone who hasn't taken any notable stances early on. Aside from easy posts like "nutella town," "why is Amy town."

This ends with her readlist and that's why I townread said readlist. Not only is there a read on every player in the game, some of them are very well-reasoned. There are also takes I consider contrarian. For instance, hard town on Dizzy back when nobody knew what to do with them and how to read their attitude. The reads she feel the strongest about have believable-looking reasoning behind them. Dizzy and Nutella reads in particular.

The Dizzy read especially looks like something you wouldn't bother with as a wolf. If Dizzy's your partner and they're inviting people to vote them... Hard shielding doesn't seem like the best of ideas. If Dizzy's town, they're misyeetable if they continue playing like this. In that case, shielding them isn't advisable, either.

I also townread the fact Tangrowth has Dizzy as "strong town" but uses language like:

"the read is subject to volatility"
"light town read"
"not worried even if I should be"
"the read is self-centered'

These parts imply different strengths / qualities of the read. A wolf wouldn't bother. Even if they wanted to fake nuance, they wouldn't decide to make their read so all over the place. It's your fake top townread, just label them as strong town and move on. What Tangrowth does instead is simultaneously express doubt and comfort. This isn't an agenda read, whether whiteknighting or townreading a partner. If the wolf goal was "pocket / defend Dizzy for townpoints," the read wouldn't need to be this way. If the wolf goal was "shield my partner Dizzy," the read STILL wouldn't need to be this way.

The introduction to the readlist also looks very hard to fake from a wolf POV. It goes on about far more things than it needs to. If Tangrowth is a wolf, she decided to produce a high-quality wallpost for no reason. The only suspicion she faced at that point was a weak push from Arete and nobody asked for a readlist.

Tangrowth wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 5:35 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 5:33 pm

Tangrowth wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 5:26 pm I'm perhaps not going to come close to matching a fair portion of this playlist through sheer reads and/or solving methods. That's not really my strength, especially this early on, and even more so with people I don't know and entering a tense environment with an intimidating playerlist that I felt and feel more so on the outer edges of for the most part. I understand why people are explaining pleasantries as things I do, and I appreciate the kind thoughts that underlie such an association, so thanks, really. It is very important to me that people are having fun, particularly with such an enamored group of players, but I do think I may have been less concerned about the discordance in such a way that it would be easier to find my footing if I had TMI right now, even if I'd still try to put everyone at more ease publicly. As it stands... I just sort of feel like I'm dipping my toes in the pool, trying to get a feel for things, and if that means people are going to be hesitant to town read me because I'm hurling softballs or whatever, that's fine I guess, but I just don't feel like waiting for me to produce is a good way to find me as town. I guess I don't know where I fit in with this town at all yet, and that's not a comforting spot to be in... I like feeling like I have a specific purpose. I realize someone could just say well, make reads, do your own thing, but I am not going to force reads that I don't have (hence the questions), and I don't function well in a corner. I'm not expecting anyone to help me with that, it's my place to try to optimize how I can help win us this game, just musing aloud about it. I'm probably >rand in terms of being a self-oriented person, and I'll try to keep such perspective to a minimum and let you all figure me out or find me however you'd like, but I have a direct responsibility to make myself easier to find from my end too, and I wanted these things said nonetheless because I feel like at least some players will struggle to find me based on what's been said already. Anyway, without further ado, a reads list.

this is SO MANY words and i dont have a GODDAMN clue what it says

????? okay, that's fine I guess. You don't really have to. If it's helpful to someone, great, if not then whatever.

This looks genuine. Genuinely deflated. Doubly so when you consider the context. Nutella had been one of Tangrowth's top townreads, and here she's mistreating Tangrowth. Or rather, doesn't seem to be taking Tangrowth's content very seriously. Instead of wolfreading her for it, or changing her read, Tangrowth just seems sad. ...This isn't a wolf reaction. Because it doesn't look fake. Tangrowth looks genuinely hurt by this post.

I'm not continuing with this ISO, I don't need to. Tangrowth is a villager.

Needless to say, I take back my earlier comment. Her posts didn't leave an impression on me because I didn't really look at them.

This is a day 1 Gavial yeet.

I'm confident he's a wolf.

Who do you NOT read town?

There is no love. I am an empty shell.

I am the bone of my sword.
Steel is my body, and fire is my blood.
I have created over a thousand blades.
Unknown to Death,
Nor known to Life.
Have withstood pain to create many weapons.
Yet, those hands will never hold anything.
So, as I pray, Unlimited Blade Works.

Marl and dya voting Gavial in the exact same moment makes them partners deciding to commit and bus Gavial. Trust.

I've liked Dizzy's recent posting a fair bit now that they are talking about the game (though I still townread their play on principle before). I'd point to specific examples from their ISO but it's one of the things that sucks to do on mobile. Remind me to do it later if anybody's interested.

These posts look like openwolfing fmpov. Everything past this point is likely antispew. Assuming he hasn't been in antispew from the start.

I hate posting on mobile. I was going to do a few ISOs but doing it on phone SUCKS.

dyachei wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 8:23 am Wait vulgard, how did you only quote the posts where I didn't explain and none of the posts where I did?

I think both alison and gav are independently wolfy. I think if alison is a wolf, gav is probably villa because of the whiteknighting that she's kind of sort of doing

I'm not really sure why that's hard to understand?

and nutella why would my "wolf agenda" ever be pushing alison when I know she's a hard elim to make happen?

Pretty sure I specified "immediately."

Marluxion wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 4:45 am it's mostly the vibes i get from hally and alison on that page
they control like 60% of the page's posts and they dont really interact at all

also the second bit
dya is on alison
galvial is on dya
tan and arete crossvoting
hally pushing seth

it justs feels like most of the poe is attacking the poe, whereas i'd expect the stronger villagers in the poe to have a significantly different perspective but that doesn't seem to be the case
whether it's w/w or wolves attacking the lhf in the poe i'm not sure yet

What's your definition of the PoE? As in, who belongs there from your POV? I don't recall you ever forming one.

Marluxion wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 6:50 am arete's posts on page 18 dont really do it for me vulgard
then again i was just pocketed by wolf arete so maybe i'm paranoid and you're right?
meh

I think the POV and takes are distinctly V!Arete. W!Arete can be creative but I think these specific takes are outside of their wolfrange of creativity.

Maybe I shouldn't have LOCKED it, but I am confident enough in this read that I probably won't think about it more for at least a day phase or two, if not longer.

Does anyone here have any experience with Visor? I have never seen him play.

Never been wrong about his alignment. Can prove by linking past games.

I am writing this post on my phone while standing in line to get my COVID vaccine. I think I'm addicted.

I also don't have confidence he's going to die if I don't push him. Last time I cased wolf!Gavial and didn't push him hard enough (offsite). We killed a villager, Gavial turned out to be a wolf PR and could use his actions freely until he kicked the bucket d2. If Gavial's a wolf PR (unlikely, but possible) I don't want that to happen. I've considered Arete's points on Gavial possibly being town but I still think his tone is squarely wolf!Gavial and his posting so far isn't what I expect from town!Gavial. I've actually played with a town!Gavial who was holding back and it didn't look like this, so giving him a pass on that principle is also wrong.