The Syndicate

And if I'm somehow in some insane world where I'm in f3 with any combination of Arete/Marl/Dizzy/nutella (particularly the former two) I will proceed to die inside. I think I 100% die before then, though. If you accept the fact I'm town, then wolves are going to kill me for being a clear.

I feel so confident about Arete and Marl being town that if I somehow end up in a final 3 with them I will snapvote the other player and say amogus. Applies to Nutella and Dizzy to a lesser extent.

I am going to evaluate Chloe later today, because I haven't really looked into her posting in-depth. I am waiting until she posts and either counterclaims jailkeeper or doesn't, because I would first like to know if Sunbae is 100% real. I think it's like 99,99% a real claim from Sunbae but better safe than sorry.

Oh yeah, I forgot about Marl. Marl is always town. I think the way he handled this day phase is far removed from his wolfrange. I can peer inside his head and see the villager who feels betrayed, proceeds to flip his read on me and tunnel me to the ground because he's in disbelief he's been pocketed. Do not flip Marl, ever.

If I were specifically trying to open up the PoE and push angles as a desperate wolf, I would push a villager whose death benefits our team. Alternatively I would engage in a claim battle with Sunbae and use my JK claim to Marl + me trying not to spew myself VT as evidence. Flipping the JK is much more beneficial than flipping a consensus PoE villager. Dya is in everybody's consensus PoE, never endgames, and pushing them gives my team nothing if I'm a wolf. Instead I'm hardclaiming VT, leaving myself no outs, and pushing the unlikely angle that wolves tried to kill me and didn't block Amy.

I'm pushing dya because I think it helps us win the most (resolves d2 wagons etc.), I think they're likely to flip mafia, and because I think their posts today have sounded ridiculously deflated in a way I wouldn't expect them to be coming from v!dya who's just pushed on v!Alison.

This is to the entire village.

I am town and I'll spend the entirety of today trying to figure out the solve. Even if you do end up flipping me today, please at least consider what I'm saying. I think spf's post about c4 is decent and I would always, always flip dyachei before doing anything else, anyway. I think Zack/Visor/c4/spf/dya contains the remaining three wolves and I'm pretty sure dya's one of them. We should be able to get some clears based on that if I'm right. I still townread Chloe based mostly on Tangrowth's posting, but if I change my mind I will let you know first thing. Arete, nutella, Amy are just always town, Sunbae is always town unless specifically Chloe counterclaims him (if anyone else were the real JK they would've 100% CC'd by now), and Dizzy doesn't play like this as mafia. Dizzy is the first player in that group I would re-evaluate if things go wrong, but I really think they are just town. I sense no agenda from their posting whatsoever.

@ Zack

You're putting me on a team with dya, the person I'm trying to flip today. If I'm a wolf outed by Sunbae, why am I bussing?

@ spf

I am not trying to open up the POE. I am leaving a legacy in case you do flip me after all. And the person I'm pushing is dya, who we need to resolve anyway and who I think flips mafia. Me being a wolf here would force me to go into antispew, which I am very clearly not doing.

I think there are many, many signs pointing toward me being town here, but I'm not going to focus too much on them because I would like to use this opportunity to try to solve the game. All PRs are outed, the time to solve the game is now, unless Chloe pulls out a CC on Sunbae and then there is a different problem to deal with.

It's less that you've had no interest in solving, I never claimed THAT. I claimed you didn't seem very interested in the situation related to me being redchecked, within the context of the thread I was backreading. Marl was screaming about it, nutella was going back and forth with grinding gears, Arete was fervently defending me, Visor was building around my red flip (lol) but also exploring mechanical possibilities. You weren't really doing anything of note in comparison to that. Saying Visor did more than you is a stretch, but I've just read back the thread, and I don't see why you're so flabbergasted I'm saying you have no interest in solving. You calling me a wolf now feels like OMGUS. I do not take back myself saying your JK soft on Sunbae was towny, I think it was towny, but aside from that you really didn't do anything when the shitshow unfolded.

I have Marl as town because his reactions to this whole thing have been the towniest in the thread, and I have Sunbae as town because the only person left who could CC him is Chloe. If she doesn't, then Sunbae's just town, and I think Sunbae treated his JK on me in a towny way. If he were mafia pushing a misyeet on me, he wouldn't bother with all that fake solving, because he'd get flipped after me for lying. Or there'd be a claim battle, and the effort wouldn't matter either way. Outside of getting the real JK yeeted and him dying afterward, I guess.

I think that's a misrepresentation. She does have a lot of posts with content. It's just that 1. I think I have stronger reasons to townread most other players, 2. I know her wolfgame is pretty good. I could trust c4's read on her, given the fact they both agree c4 has a good read on her, and he's calling her town. But I also think c4's wolfy and I think they have strong partner equity, so seeing a v/v world here is difficult.

I just want Chloe to post something at this point.

Is she such a good wolf? Because I think the readlist, particularly the townreads on it, is >>>>>>>>>>>rand V.

nutella wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 5:01 am

Vulgard wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 4:58 am

nutella wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 4:55 am

Vulgard wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 4:53 am Zack's overnight post was alright but given the fact he had like 24 hours to make it look good I wouldn't say he must be town because he wrote it.

he posted it like 3 hours into the night phase


i think zack is townier than visor but visor is probably town


i can buy spf wolf/c4 town atp

And he knew he had it in advance because he won it as a prize, no? I'm not going to debate this point, because I frankly don't think it matters all that much, but yeah.

i believe it's a same-night prize?

I don't actually know. This is me hardclaiming I never won an event prize, lmao.

Flipping dya today also resolves day 2 wagons, and if they're a wolf, we have stuff to look at. If they are a villager (which I find very doubtful given how they've played today), then we don't get much out of it (because it means we exclusively wagoned villagers day 2), but we can still conduct a TMI hunt and whatnot.

I'd currently be TMI hunting people @ Alison, but the jailkeep claim, and the instant threadshift that followed, made it a bit difficult to focus on that.

nutella wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 4:59 am vulgard i found your stuff believable but your continued hesitance to wolfread chloe and dya is pinging me rn

I'm literally calling dya a wolf and voting them, and I just said they should flip today.

My hesitance to wolfread Chloe is because of Tangrowth being in the slot before her and Tangrowth being super towny. Read Tangrowth's posts again, particularly the readlist and the stuff surrounding it, and tell me how this comes from a wolf.

Arete wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 4:57 am idk this might be a dumb take but for me the Bronana post was like ... it felt townie because it had a lot of words but it didn't actually move the needle for me when I considered it rationally? it's easy to look vaguely villagery in an isolated wallpost

After Anni 2020 where Amrock did this exact kind of thing and was mafia I'm not deciding anybody's alignment based on a nightpost they were allowed to write. I'll treat it as their legacy if they get killed at night but I'm not going to claim they are town for a nice, pre-written post.

nutella wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 4:55 am

Vulgard wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 4:53 am Zack's overnight post was alright but given the fact he had like 24 hours to make it look good I wouldn't say he must be town because he wrote it.

he posted it like 3 hours into the night phase


i think zack is townier than visor but visor is probably town


i can buy spf wolf/c4 town atp

And he knew he had it in advance because he won it as a prize, no? I'm not going to debate this point, because I frankly don't think it matters all that much, but yeah.

The reason I think c4/spf are wolves is because I think c4's day 2 was super wolfy and SPF is giving him too much credit for meta, more than I would expect her to. But with you defending her position despite wolfreading SPF in our night chat I'm willing to acknowledge the v/v world I guess.

Marluxion wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 4:51 am like i told vulgard in the nightchat c4 so far this game has been near identical to harry potter fm where he hardly posts and still has an incredibly confident poe that he barely budges on

c4 was town in harry potter

spf could be reading into that but it could also just be a pocket, idk

I could buy c4/spf both being town. I don't think they are v/w with SPF being the wolf. v/w with c4 wolf is possible but would require SPF to grossly misread him.

If c4/spf are both town to you, though, does this mean Chloe's a wolf? Chloe/Zack/Visor or whatever? Replace one of them with dya? I really doubt spf would go for a pocket on c4 by shielding him, I think he's optimal misyeetTM because his day 2 was so bad and SPF with TMI would know this.

Zack's been posting for like 5 last pages and he hasn't seemed interest in this situation or solving off it even once. He's going along with the ride, and with me knowing I'm town, that doesn't look good.

I think dya/c4 being wolves is ultimately more likely than zack/visor, or even just zack/visor, being wolves, but if they are not wolves, I'm pointing at Zack/Visor. I think Visor's townier than Zack for actually evaluating today and having a similar PoE I have.

Zack's overnight post was alright but given the fact he had like 24 hours to make it look good I wouldn't say he must be town because he wrote it.

Chloe is in a place where I think Tangrowth's day 1 was super towny and I stand by that, but Chloe has been worse. I'm really expecting her to kick solving into gear today with all PRs outed.

I think the "meta read" crutch only goes so far, and I haven't seen SPF voice many thoughts about why c4 is town outside of that. And I think his day 2 was awful, I will continue to repeat that.

I've been continually evaluating Arete, for one, despite having a soulread on them and not really having the obligation to explain myself given my accuracy on reading them. I know I was mistaken with Gavial but we should really be over this by now, I am.

I don't think Visor is wolves with c4 or dya (especially not both), unless he's choosing to bus hard in a world where he should have a free misyeet on me today if he tries hard enough.

Marl. I am town, you are town, Arete is town. This is so stupid.

We should resolve dya today, they probably flip wolf given how their posting today has no spark at all. They aren't even trying to engage in this discourse because they don't care anymore. I thought last night that their push on Alison made no sense (because it was kamikaze into a VT who wasn't playing the game, why??) but the way dya's posting today made me flip that read.

I townread Tangrowth more than I townread Chloe but I'm willing to look in that direction as well if I have to.

Oh yeah, and re: spf/c4. There is a world where spf is pocketing c4 by hard shielding him, but I think c4's day 2 is so wolfy in hindsight that spf wouldn't do that without a good reason. It'd be depriving herself of a misyeet down the line. Wolf!SPF knew Alison would flip town, she knew c4 would look terrible off it. The only good reason I see for continually defending c4 there is if they are wolf partners.

Also, SPF still hasn't answered my question re: c4 and I find that concerning. It's like she dodged it entirely by exploiting the fact Sunbae false redchecked me, to not give me an answer.

dyachei wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 6:39 pm So if it's not alison, I want to look at the people who didn't really have a conviction on her slot

I... would expect town!dya to do that overnight. And to start today with different posting.

Marl claiming JK on c4

Amy has the towniest reactions to the initial shitshow (Marl claiming JK on c4). But she's already an IC so w/e.

C4/SPF is complicated and depends on who was actually carrying the kill. I think a SPF/c4 world has TMI on c4 not being outed (not carrying the kill), though. C4's reaction to it is like "who the fuck would kill me" which doesn't sound very concerned. And SPF reluctantly admits c4 might be mafia after all. I'd expect more extreme reactions from them if c4 was actually the carrier.

Zack is completely uninterested in this conundrum and talks about Dya first thing. Either he's town thinking Marl's claim is fake or mafia with TMI.

Visor... just tells people not to claim early. Does not consider the claim being fake, either.

C4/SPF not having strong reactions to the claim. Zack ignoring it straight up. Visor complaining about the early claim. Yeah, nobody believed the claim. Except maybe Visor. The reactions are so weak. Nutella's reaction by voting c4 stands out a bit but that's also not very strong. I can't extrapolate anything from this, it's impossible they are all wolves with TMI. Probably not Marl's partners, though, if Marl is a wolf? This is a reach, but if Marl had his partners in the thread while claiming, he'd have them support him.

Sunbae claiming JK on me

Sunbae's claim is actually very towny from the start. If this get CC'd the CCer better have a good case for themselves.

C4 and Marl's reaction is basically the same. "WHAT?" Visor's reaction is actually really good here. He doesn't assume I'm mafia, for one, and thinks about other mechanical possibilities.

Marl goes all in on me being a wolf here and accuses Arete of being my partner. ...I actually think it's TOWN indicative of him. This is extremely opportunistic of him, but hear me out here. I really don't think wolf!Marl instantly take the opportunity to chain two misyeets here. Even if he gets both misyeets, this makes him look absolutely terrible. His reaction fits the bill of "townie who feels betrayed and assumes the worst straight up." The post pinging me afterward about my effort in the mason chat is even townier. Wolf Marl has no reason to post this since he already pretends I'm a wolf. It all reads like "villager who thinks he was betrayed." And since he has a tendency to tunnel, his insistence on me being a wolf here is something I don't find surprising.

Yeah, no, his posting continues to be exactly what I'd expect from villager!him. He even seems to forget the postcap exists and screamsa for like 30 posts. This isn't wolf!Marl.

#2860 is another post from him I find super unlikely to come from a wolf POV. This isn't a thought that comes to wolf!Marl, since wolf!Marl knows I'm VT and Sunbae is trueclaiming.

SPF trying to figure out whether I'm JK or not could go either way. Her trying to figure out what I was trying to do with c4 looks decent but I think it's in her wolfrange.

Dya's posts are really 'eh' throughout. They don't seem very invested in this conundrum. They sound so... deflated throughout today. I'd warrant a guess they expect to go regardless of me being "redchecked" and they've lost the WiM to play. I don't think v!dya who was wrong on Alison posts like this today, I just don't.

Visor and Zack talking about something completely unrelated is wolfy. Visor worldbuilding around my red flip before I even get the chance to defend myself is wolfy. They don't seem to care about me ever posting today, they are setting themselves up for the future. I don't sense a villagery inquisitiveness in their posting. Visor looks better than Zack because at least he's looking into mechanical possibilities. That said, wolves can easily do this as well. The one thing that looks good for Visor is that he reaches the conclusion vul/c4/dya. I think c4 is a wolf and I think dya is a wolf as well. The third isn't me, though; if anything I'd say it's SPF for shielding c4 and pretending to be pocketed.

If dya/c4/spf (spf only if c4 is actually a wolf) is not the solve, I'd take another look at Zack/Visor. Zack just isn't giving a damn about the situation. Meanwhile, if that solve is wrong, then Visor created a PoE of three villas while preflipping me red. I realize he's now considering other worlds but that should still say a lot. SPF's posting have been alright but I think her wolfrange is broad enough to accomodate them.

Note that if c4 is a villager then SPF is much more likely to be a villager. This doesn't work in reverse, though.

I'd say Chloe is a wolf but I still think Tangrowth's posting was super super towny. I am not convinced. Her not talking about the situation at all could be explained by her not being there. Which means I think it's NAI.

Why not anyone else?

Nutella - I really think she's just threadspewed at this point. And I've also heard she has a polarized meta, so I trust that. And I've vibed with her posting multiple times throughout the game.
Dizzy - Doesn't treat Gavial like that as a wolf. Doesn't play the same idgaf way like his partner KZA does; Dizzy entered the thread claiming wolf. KBA entered the thread openly shitposting. I don't think two wolves do this, then proceed not to interact with each other, etc. it doesn't make much sense.
Marl - I think his reactions, of all people's, are the towniest here. If he's a wolf pushing agenda and I'm getting snowed, well done. I really think his posts here don't come from a wolf POV. His progression tracks when you assume "villager who feels betrayed and gets tunneled."
Arete - Locking this as V. I am not bothering to explain any further, Arete is just town.
Amy - Tracker.
Sunbae - JK unless CC'd. The only person who could CC this at this point is Chloe I think. In which case, lmao.

Marluxion wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 3:52 am i just realized the way we ended our neighborhood chat should look so UNBELIEVABLY bad for me from vulgard's pov and he hasn't even brought it up

I ended asking him for his legacy and put a hard emphasis on the possibility of him dying lmfao
from vulgards PoV that should have set off red flags immediately if he's town

It... didn't even cross my mind that the post was a wolf writing a goodbye to me.

I retract my townread on Marl for not even considering I am telling the truth.

Going to backread real quick.

outed wolf wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 3:33 am I don't think it's GOOD

But I can see wolves believing that amy would be jailkept

I think that's the most likely re: "why not Amy."

I'll go through people's reactions to this situation. Chloe's complete lack of a reaction looks bad, but is explainable by her just... not being there.

Most of you (except Arete) straight up assumed I was just mafia carrying the kill. I actually think this should make it even more likely I'm town. In a world where I'm a wolf, my partners probably don't just dunk on me. In that world, I am deep. They have nothing to gain by dunking on me, because Sunbae gets all the credit anyway. Wolves probably called me mafia too if they were in the thread.

When I consider posting, Chloe's the most likely wolf in this game to nightkill me. I've townread Tangrowth's posting really hard, but I agree that Chloe's posting has been... worse, by comparison.

Still waiting for SPF's take on c4. I think his day 2 was abysmal.

I still think dya could flip town, but their flip is a foregone conclusion at this point. It resolves d2 wagons, part of d1 wagons, plus I'm not impressed by their d3. I was going to wait until dya posted d3 to see their thoughts about the situation, but... they had no real thoughts. I'm not going to shield them.

I think c4 looks much more terrible after yesterday and that's why I questioned SPF about her shield on him. He didn't defend Alison from his top wolfread. If he thought dya was bussing, he should've outright said so, and I don't remember him saying so. Besides, his ISO is only slightly above dya when it comes to pushes. Dya only pushed one person for two day phases and c4 only pushed dya. SPF's shield on him looks questionable to me and the "meta read" crutch only goes so far.

These thoughts are something I've also shared in my nightchat with Marl. Marl can verify these are not something I pulled out after I was "redchecked."

With Sunbae taken out of my PoE until/unless CC'd, it's Zack/Visor left in it, but Zack's JK soft today (?) was towny. Visor could go either way for me, but I am not interested in that angle at the moment. I'm going to sheep thread consensus, which seems to be that Visor is town.

My pushes yesterday being "weak" were because of my Gavial read being wrong. I don't understand why Sunbae claims I wasn't dejected about it. I absolutely was. It colored my entire dayphase, I didn't want to lead another misyeet so I took a back seat. I focused most of my efforts on debating dya vs Alison and Amy, which were the top three wagons.

Also, with me being the nightkill target, Marl's wolf equity skyrockets. His posts today are clear indicators of him believing my JK claim, even though I thought I botched it when I made it. I don't think his posting today has been wolfy at all, but it's something I'm considering. I honestly think his play with our nightchat in mind is out of his wolfrange, but I still know for a fact he believed me. As in, believed my JK claim. Based on posting alone, I'd say he's just a villager, but me being the nightkill target... Makes the most sense by Occam's Razor if Marl is just a wolf. His posts, especially today, are towny, so I'm only considering it.

The only other person I could see killing me is Arete, but Arete's town to me (and not because they're defending me). I was going to lock it in today after briefly discussing it with Marl and I am doing that now. Arete is town, never kill them.

With these two possibilities eliminated / made unlikely, I don't have any idea. I don't know who would've killed me. ...Chloe? Outside of Chloe, I don't think anyone else who's still alive has ever played with me before.

Okay.

1. I hardclaim VT. Unless someone else CC's this, Sunbae is just the jailkeeper. Besides, the solving they've been doing off my red flip (wrong, but we'll get to that later) looks like they genuinely believe they have a red on me and not like a wolf trying to exploit the no-kill to get me killed.
2. I was saved from a kill last night. That's the only explanation. I have no idea why the wolves didn't roleblock Amy. It's possible they didn't think they needed to, or it was WIFOM, or something else. In theory, a "no movement" result from Amy on a wolf would slightly improve said wolf's position.
3. The Marl and c4 thing you are completely misinterpreting. Marl also misunderstood me. We did claim jailkeeper to each other, but I thought I botched it and decided to go with "believe it or don't believe it" - type of posting with Marl in our night chat. I did think it might be useful to fake claim JK in case he turned out to be a wolf; I also considered softing JK today to better sell it. I've tried the whole game not to spew myself VT. At no point was I trying to soft a red on c4. The reason I asked SPF about her shield on c4 had to do with my reads, some of which I discussed overnight with Marl. My read on c4, I did discuss with him. I ended up thinking c4's posts were almost as bad as dya's and he didn't even try to save Alison when his top wolf suspect, dya, was pushing there. I thought that looked pretty terrible with Alison flipping V and I was going to push that. I asked SPF about her shield on c4 because I would find it suspicious if she were still shielding him given all that, and me and Marl both agreed to some levels of paranoia about SPF (though Marl straight up thinks she can be a wolf).
4. The string of posts you're claiming was me softing a red on c4 was me actually hinting something to Marl. Me and Marl both had Sunbae in our PoE in our night chat. Zack posted something I interpreted as him claiming a red on Sunbae, and that is what I was hinting at when I talked to Marl. I was wondering if he saw it too, because if he did and if the claim was true, we were collectively correct on a PoE read and it would be awesome. It would mean our nightchat got us somewhere. The thing about my JK stuff and claiming a red on c4 was all your narrative, I never planned to do any of this. Honestly, I'm disappointed everybody turned on me instantly (minus Arete) and never considered a different world.

I am town. I am not CCing Sunbae; the real JK should do that if he's fake. I don't know why Amy wasn't roleblocked, but I know I was attacked last night.

Stop solving around my red flip, because I am town and Sunbae got a save on me. That's a clear, not a redcheck. Though I understand why you think it's a redcheck, at least consider my point of view and try to solve with me. Not AROUND me, and certainly not around my red flip.

And next time, please let me explain myself instead of instantly making assumptions. Especially when I've barely even posted.

Marluxion wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 6:39 pm

Vulgard wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 6:36 pm I don't think I'll need to explain.

I understand why people want to turboyeet dya but there's also other stuff I'd like to discuss.

Should I tell them

I don't think you'll have to? Up to you though.

I don't think I'll need to explain.

I understand why people want to turboyeet dya but there's also other stuff I'd like to discuss.

Marluxion wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 6:25 pm VULGARD AND I BOTH LIVED ITS ACTUALLY A CHRISTMAS MIRACLE

Marl are you seeing what I'm seeing?

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 6:07 pm that makes two days in a row where I ended the day with dyachei as one of my strongest suspects, only to not feel confident to push the momentum in the direction of their chop

im done with that. i want dya gone today and if they're a villager then I take responsibility for it

I'm going to sleep soon but I need to ask this.

Are you still shielding c4? I have some thoughts about dya myself but I need to ask this first.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 6:00 pm Night 2 has ended. Nobody has died.

Day 3 begins. You have 48 hours to place your votes.

I’ll post a quiz answer key here later when I can.

Hoping this is a redcheck and not a save, but I'll take either.

sunbae wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 4:50 pm if alison does end up being jk and claims, i trust you all to figure something else out without needing me around

Saving my last 5 posts in case this exact thing happens. At this point I'm 100% not CFDing, the moment has passed.

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 4:45 pm anyone have any questions for me?

Are you gay?

dyachei wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 4:44 pm

Vulgard wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 4:41 pm I have no idea why I haven't asked this question before, but.

Dyachei. If Alison is a villager. What then?

And actually, if Alison is a wolf, what then? Any suspected partners? You've been tunneling her for 2 day phases now, surely you have some associations. Give us something other than getting annoyed every time someone wolfreads you.

I literally just posted a reads list this afternoon. c4's behavior seems kind of weird, but I admit that may be something to do with his pr read

How does this reconcile with your wolfread on c4? I feel like you're implying something other than "he's mafia" in this post despite calling him mafia just now.

dyachei wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 2:51 pm Villa to wolf list
Amy
Tangy/chloe
Vulgard
visor
Sunbae
nutella
bronana
spf
marl
Dizzy
Arete
C4
Alison

You mean this? This doesn't tell me anything about how your reads change depending on Alison's alignment. Unless the readlist was made with the premise Alison's a wolf.

I have no idea why I haven't asked this question before, but.

Dyachei. If Alison is a villager. What then?

And actually, if Alison is a wolf, what then? Any suspected partners? You've been tunneling her for 2 day phases now, surely you have some associations. Give us something other than getting annoyed every time someone wolfreads you.

Wait I am 10 posts away from postcap.

I'm not going to post much more today outside of important stuff.

nutella wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 3:00 pm I'm extremely torn rn

I think every time dya comes into the thread they are extremely selective about what they respond to/talk about, and I feel like I've never seen any indication that they're solving from an uninformed perspective. Their approach to me is omgus/discredity and they're hesitant to call me even "a light v lean" while only basing it on my interactions with them and never acknowledging anything else I've done that is town indicative, claiming I haven't been "bouncing around" when I feel like that's all I've been doing all game. Every time they post I feel reinforced in my belief that they're not coming at the game with a desire to solve anything, they're mainly defending themself and pushing alison like a broken record and I'm not seeing anything that suggests they're approaching reads on anyone else with a goal of actually solving. My main caveat is that their dedication to the alison scumread *is* something I've seen them do as town.

It seems like Alison has given up. She appeared again once to say she townread marl and that he was referencing a past game inaccurately and that's IT. She is more guilty of the selective/limited posting problem than dya. She certainly gives off the impression of simply being in antispew. I'm even considering zack's concerns about chloe in relation to alison here and I'll be upset if chloe has fooled me but I may have to keep a closer eye there (on one hand "busywork" is a thing, on the other hand i've very much vibed with the reads shes given in those summaries). But I do even agree with chloe/c4/vulgard on certain micro reasons to think Alison is uninformed. Those arguments have all seemed logically sound to me and I don't know what to do with the fact that as either alignment she is, to use her words, griefing the game.

So fuck me I just want one of these flips and I'm not going to push super hard for or against either wagon. The w/w tinfoil theories are kinda swimming around now and I can't help but share Arete's concern that Alison rolling over and dying could be indicative of a goon bus. I feel like if that was the wolves' strategy here it's just gone wrong and they've stuck to it anyway, but on the other hand I don't know that I could bring myself to not clear dya if they're right on alison just like out of respect. And instead I'd first want to scrutinize Alison's defenders, c4/vulgard/chloe (c4 feels worst of those three to me on a general level) even if I thought their points do make sense.

Aaaaa okay typing this has convinced me to [VOTE: alison] aubergine

Dya is at least playing

If Alison's V do you just turbo Dya?

sunbae wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 2:15 pm I've read through Dyslexicon's ISO and have a few small concerns which I'd like to clear up before settling on a conclusion.

1. Dyslexicon spent a bit of time expressing suspicion on Bronana for thinking their push on KZA was weak yet wanting some credit for KZA being a wolf. The biggest hangup from Dyslexicon's point of view seems to be that Bronana called a series of KZA's posts a "sequence" when the posts were pages apart. My concerns on this are twofold: a.) Expecting someone to "do due diligence" on someone that posted 10 times when skimming their iso and seeing the 3 posts in a row being very different while also dismissing the answer of "it was 3 posts in a row in an iso" is a bit unreasonable to me and b.) I'm confused why I did not suffer the same type of heat for my entrance post today. After all, Bronana certainly said more about KZA than I did so I find it mildly concerning (read: opportunistic to find a reason to push bronana instead of finding that specific thing to be a wolf thing).

2. There's a few posts in short order where Dyslexicon answers a "who you shooting if you have a gun" post with "Alison! If town, Bronana. If scum, Amy." while also saying "I could rather vote Amy right now than you (Alison)" a few posts later. Which seems kinda of concerning as it sounds like AmyScum is dependent on AlisonScum from Dyslexicon's point of view? Feel like if he's talking to Alison about not voting her he should be saying Bronana?

3. In the long list of individual reads, Dyslexicon says this about Vulgard: " Such analysis wow. If others think Vulgard is town, I'm ok with sleeping this. I did have a probably dumb tinfoil of Dya/Vulgard from two specific posts where Vulgard probably just misspoke to/about Dya. This will later turn out correct, but I will forget it. Jk jk. Probably town then." but when making a list Vulgard is second highest only behind Marl (for the derp). For someone as talented as Dyslexicon's posts make them seem to me, their best reads being a derp and someone they have a tinfoil on wolf just seems, not right?

Now, these things are just mild concerns overall and things I'm hoping to get cleared up because overall I thought the general approach and stream of consciousness posts that popped up were quite villagery (plus hally had as villager and they seem to know each other well). But you know, due diligence and all (plus hey, they wanted someone to actually read their posts as a whole!)

1. I see where you're coming from, but these are such minutiae that I find it a bit hard to believe Dizzy would construct such an elaborate point just to express suspicion on someone.
2. I have no idea how they reached that preflipped conclusion to begin with, tbh. I don't know what Dizzy was thinking. The POV makes no sense to me in general.
3. I actually agree on that point. Not sure if it makes Dizzy a wolf but these two reads don't make much sense to be the highest. Dizzy not having stronger ones is - basically what you said.

Overall I think the points you're raising are valid but my read on them is more like "Dizzy's POV makes no sense in these posts" which I lean toward being villagery and not wolfy. We did have KZA whose posts were just abysmal but Dizzy isn't KZA. Funnily enough I have a similar opinion about c4, I also think c4 is a villager but his POV makes no sense to me sometimes. I've already discussed this but nobody seemed interested in engaging with me on this.

This is the dumbest read ever but Arete using a meme as their response here is >>>>>>>>>>rand V coming from Arete.

Marluxion wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 2:43 pm

sunbae wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 2:41 pm

Marluxion wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 2:40 pm I'm probably not going to vote
If Dyachei is a wolf i'll be glad i didn't and if dyachei is town, you'd best be ready for a fucking storm because tomorrow you're getting ego mode marl who is never going to let you hear the end of it

How confident are you in Vulgard town (given you're basing your Arete read on Vulgard's town read of Arete)

if rand is like 75%, probably close to 85%
he is above rand but i'm not locking it
there are parts of his analysis that stick out as ???? to me but i dont want to be the tinfoil hat man for the 800th time in a row tinfoiling obvious town
i'll know whether he's town or not tonight

Thing is, we can work through these parts if you're town, but people haven't engaged with me for the last ~50 posts I wrote, and it makes me feel deflated. I don't want to strongarm the thread, given I was wrong on Gavial and later Amy, but I also want my thoughts to be heard.

bronana wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 2:45 pm

Vulgard wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 1:46 pm

Spoiler: show

Both Alison and dya have done things I townread them for before, and now they are both top wagons.

People have been giving me arguments why dya is mafia. Okay.

People have been giving me arguments why Alison is mafia. Okay.

I have been wrong on Gavial and on Amy (given the lack of CC). Okay.

But I think these wagons are bad. I don't see why mafia Alison would treat Gavial like this despite knowing he would be likely to flip from how day 1 played out. She should have awareness of her own TMI as a wolf and approach accordingly.

I don't see why mafia Dya would push on Alison in the snappy way that they did. It's possible they were doing w/w theater, but I honestly struggle to see it. If they were w/w, they wouldn't play d2 like they have. They are kinda self-pressing on each other, dya is calling Alison a wolf, Alison isn't... really... calling dya a wolf back? Or maybe I missed it. If they were partners doing theater and becoming the top two wagons on day 2, I think they would continue this theater throughout the day so one would be spewed clear. Or, I don't know, do SOMETHING. It feels like both are ready to get flipped since neither is really fighting the votes on them, and it's puzzling play coming from wolves.

Why is it not puzzling play coming from villagers? ...It is. It still is. That's why I haven't been like "these are V/V wagons guaranteed, let's CFD." But this still feels wrong to me. Marl calling Alison hyperwolfy feels wrong to me. I know he has experience with her, but I do too, and we have an entirely different perspective. That's just one thing that's seemed off to me about these last ~12 hours.

My heart tells me to CFD, but I'm not sure where to go with it, and it could have disastrous results. Like hitting another PR. And after the Gavial read backfired on me for the first time ever (and after I pushed someone who is now almost certainly tracker!Amy - town PR!Amy), I'm not sure I have a great handle on this game.

I've been trying to lay low for the past few hours and read what other people were thinking. I've been trying to discuss with the players pushing for either Alison or Dya, and I feel an overwhelming level of indifference for some reason. This isn't as clear-cut to me as it seems to be to everyone else.

I'm still going to vote for one of them at EoD if I have to, just so that my vote matters, but the reason I'm not voting anyone right now is because I'm still trying to evaluate the gamestate.

lets say you get your cfd on me (i seem to be your only real suspect apparently afaict), i flip town. how does this affect the rest of your reads? (if you want to also answer the converse of cfding me and i flip mafia, feel free but know it's a dreamland )

I probably stop going against consensus and just sheep people I think are town because clearly I have terrible reads this game.

As for more specifics, I'd have to preflip you as town and run comparisons which I have neither the time nor the desire to do. The only reason I'm going through worlds re: Dya/Alison is that they've been wagons since forever and one has continually pushed on the other.

sunbae wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 2:38 pm Vulgard, can you give me the explain it like I'm 5 breakdown of Arete town? My reason for town reading Arete is for the explanation to the big wall defending you eod1 being to protect you from getting killed later in the game and the discord/forum response to Dyslexicon's amy wolfchat post, but I recognize those aren't the best reasons so it'd be nice to have more concrete things.

Vulgard wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 5:26 am

Arete wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 11:15 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 11:06 pm arete, what’s your read on gavial?

based on what I've seen in the posts I've read (which, again, is not all the posts that exist) I think he's probably a wolf, he's not playing like town!Seth like at all, from what I've seen he's not even making an attempt at pushing any of his scumreads? which is one of the big things I expect from town!Seth

Alison had a post where she said that he plays to his wolf meta half the time as town which I don't think is true, I have actually seen it happen by which I mean 'I replaced in for him in a game where he was the uncontested top wagon for doing that' but I think it's more like ten percent of his town games than half of them? which is a number I completely made up but is probably the right ballpark

also I might be misremembering the details but someone had a post that was like 'why even bother to vote him out if he's a wolf, wolves are just going to bus him for towncred which doesn't help us' (this is a really misrepresentative paraphrase) and I think that's also dumb, wolves dying is always good and the fewer wolves there are the stronger the tracker is (and the fewer wolves need to die to turn the jailkeeper into a cop) (also he could be a wolf PR)

like if we're worried that wolves will just bus him we can just not give people towncred for being on his wagon if he flips scum? duh?


I'm not voting him yet because in the offchance he's not I don't want him to randomly tunnel me for Seth reasons when he gets back, getting tunnelled by Seth for sucky reasons is Not Fun, if he's still being wolfy by EoD then I can just vote him then and my vote will do exactly as much to kill him as it would if I voted now

The last part of this post looks like a v!Arete perspective.

Arete wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 12:48 am ...still catching up but at some point within the past ?few minutes? Gavial seems to have silently voted me on the poll, and not in the thread, despite literally never mentioning me at any point previously

which is baffling and kind of makes me think that he's badly attempting to spew me as his partner? or something?

This entire post looks like a v!Arete perspective, too. We both have experience with Gavial and wolf!Arete wouldn't handle Gavial like this.

I still think Gavial's a wolf after reading his posts 4 pages ago. They lack the spark of confidence his towngame displays. He sounds too deflated.

Lots of people are making Gavial preflips, though. Let's not. I'm a competent Gavial reader and I think he's mafia but preflips are always bad unless there's a redcheck. It's THEORETICALLY possible he's playing in his wolfmeta as town for whatever reason. ...Yeah, no. But still.

Arete wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 1:52 am I have a hot take that Seth probably doesn't randomly make the spectator reads and insist that it's a super funny joke as wolf

he takes the game ... seriously? ... as wolf, which to be clear is not the same thing as 'being good at it' or 'not outing his entire team with spew' or 'not pinging the lost wolf with a poem that spells out WE R IN TOWNCORE with the first letter of every line as an elaborate form of signalling, without consulting his teammates' but he has a conception of himself as a good scum player (specifically thinking of an FoL wolfgame, Wild West, where he was super insistent on trying to bus Moleland, his partner, on the grounds that he was a better wolf than Moleland (which is not true)) and I don't think his self-conception of himself as a good scum player is consistent with making that sort of joke

and if it were just actual lolcatting I don't think he would deny that he's lolcatting

I townread the thought process but I disagree with the conclusion. Gavial's still seemed tonally deflated to me.

Arete wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 2:10 am I'm happy to give him until the end of day to towntell, in my experience when he's V he can usually be obviously in his town range by the end of the day

That part's fair.

Read Arete's posts on page 18 and I'm confident calling them town. Don't misyeet them.

Vulgard wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 2:58 pm I feel like my Arete read just above is messier than the others, because I'm trying to rationalize thinking they are a villager when really I just feel it in my soul.

Vulgard wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 2:56 pm Arete:

- Initially calls Gavial "probably just a wolf" but isn't sure. Provides meta on Gavial.
- Reiterates that Gavial is still wolfy, but isn't 100% sure about it and lists "don't want to be tunneled back by him if he's town" as one of the reasons for this.
- Doesn't like Alison's stance on Gavial. I don't really understand the reasoning why but I read it as genuine consideration.
- Claims that they think Gavial might be badly attempting to spew them as their partner. I think this is very unlikely to come from a wolf, Arete or not, since it's referring to someone they know is a villager in that world. I... doubt a wolf would come up with "they are trying to spew me as their partner?" Even if you claim a wolf would do this to absolve themselves from blame for the yeet, most of the thread was wolfreading Gavial, so that doesn't really work in context.
- Notices that Gavial is getting townier but is apprehensive about it for "where do we go from here" reasons. Notably, does not harddefend Gavial, but still says this.
- Claims that Gavial wouldn't make spectator reads as a wolf. Arete continues to go out of their way to defend Gavial, but doesn't strongarm it. I'm torn whether mafiaRete would do this for towncred. It's a fairly consistent stance they have throughout their ISO, but they didn't really try very hard to prevent the misyeet from happening.
- Wants to continue giving Gavial time so he can become obvtown if he's town.
- Continually claims they think Gavial is >rand town but aren't going to fight the yeet. I think, much like in the case of Alison, it benefits wolf!Arete more to take one of two stances here: either just kill Gavial or bus KZA. They do talk about KZA briefly, calling him >rand wolf and likening his play to the "uninspired d1 by t0an and/or volume" meme which I think is 100% within their scumrange to do.

This doesn't prove to me they aren't partnered. I think wolf!Arete might briefly hedge on Gavial because they can't decide on how to treat Gavial, whether correctly defending him is a better approach than pushing the misyeet through. What I DON'T think wolf!Arete does is openly hedge on Gavial's alignment for the entire day, kinda slightly calling him town but never strongly enough to shift the yeet away. Even taking into consideration the fact KZA was a wolf PR and a counterwagon option, I think wolf!Arete's self-awareness wouldn't let them hedge on the misyeet in the making in all of their posts. They'd just commit to something.

They explain their standpoint on d2, claiming that misyeeting Gavial didn't seem like such a bad thing to them (lol), that they weren't too confident because of other people's confidence about Gavial being mafia, and that if Gavial was mafia then committing to a hard defense would make Arete look partnered with him. The first would be a really bold claim from mafia!Arete and I don't think they have the guts for it. The second is something I can't quite envision mafia!Arete doing because mafia!Arete is more than ready to push some agenda. While mafia!Arete could lie about this, I think their overall attitude points toward them being just town. And the third reason is something I don't want to delve into.

TL;DR Based on the treatment of Gavial I'm still leaning Arete town, because I think it would be unusual for their wolfplay to approach Gavial like they did, as mafia.

For what it's worth, last game on the Syndicate where I played with Arete I found Arete town on day 1 and they were indeed town despite barely posting and not really being townread by anyone else. I still feel decently comfortable calling them town given the way they've played until now.

W/W at the very least doesn't make sense to me, because neither one of Alison/dya is going to make it deep even WITH the pelt. Their play outside of this theater has been far from stellar. It's very likely they just get flipped tomorrow regardless of the flip because "bussing lol." It's not a good play given how they handled it and I'd expect them to abandon it by now or do something else. It's getting them both killed at this rate.

I could buy V/W but the threadstate really concerns me. I might be a bit paranoid after the Gavial flip and Amy being a PR. At the same time, though, I'm surprised no one else seems paranoid.

Let it rand lol.

Really, the main problem I have here is that Dya's only real legacy is "kill Alison" while Alison's legacy is a blank void. Neither is playing like they have a long-term plan (which is making me think they are not W/W) and I have no idea how to interpret that. If they are both villagers, then this entire day has been a mess, and everybody's apparent indifference to these two being the main wagons bothers me.

I would like everyone who can to tell me why they are so confident there is a wolf in this pair, other than "this has to be resolved." I'm not saying it's not a valid argument (especially now that the vig is dead) but I want to hear something other than that.

Both Alison and dya have done things I townread them for before, and now they are both top wagons.

People have been giving me arguments why dya is mafia. Okay.

People have been giving me arguments why Alison is mafia. Okay.

I have been wrong on Gavial and on Amy (given the lack of CC). Okay.

But I think these wagons are bad. I don't see why mafia Alison would treat Gavial like this despite knowing he would be likely to flip from how day 1 played out. She should have awareness of her own TMI as a wolf and approach accordingly.

I don't see why mafia Dya would push on Alison in the snappy way that they did. It's possible they were doing w/w theater, but I honestly struggle to see it. If they were w/w, they wouldn't play d2 like they have. They are kinda self-pressing on each other, dya is calling Alison a wolf, Alison isn't... really... calling dya a wolf back? Or maybe I missed it. If they were partners doing theater and becoming the top two wagons on day 2, I think they would continue this theater throughout the day so one would be spewed clear. Or, I don't know, do SOMETHING. It feels like both are ready to get flipped since neither is really fighting the votes on them, and it's puzzling play coming from wolves.

Why is it not puzzling play coming from villagers? ...It is. It still is. That's why I haven't been like "these are V/V wagons guaranteed, let's CFD." But this still feels wrong to me. Marl calling Alison hyperwolfy feels wrong to me. I know he has experience with her, but I do too, and we have an entirely different perspective. That's just one thing that's seemed off to me about these last ~12 hours.

My heart tells me to CFD, but I'm not sure where to go with it, and it could have disastrous results. Like hitting another PR. And after the Gavial read backfired on me for the first time ever (and after I pushed someone who is now almost certainly tracker!Amy - town PR!Amy), I'm not sure I have a great handle on this game.

I've been trying to lay low for the past few hours and read what other people were thinking. I've been trying to discuss with the players pushing for either Alison or Dya, and I feel an overwhelming level of indifference for some reason. This isn't as clear-cut to me as it seems to be to everyone else.

I'm still going to vote for one of them at EoD if I have to, just so that my vote matters, but the reason I'm not voting anyone right now is because I'm still trying to evaluate the gamestate.

It genuinely feels like Alison's antispewing.

Help me.

I call Alison a villager, then she re-enters the thread and does this.