The Syndicate

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 22, 2021 2:52 pm I'm 100% for the "lets confirm one of Jack or LC as town by tying them at vote" plan.

It may be a bit confusing to understand at first, but basically:

1) the only way LC dies as a town is if Jack is a wolf.
2) the only way LC dies as a wolf is if Jack is the role he says he is, which is a town role.
3) the only way Jack dies is if he's a wolf or LC is town.

This is purely due to the fact of how Jack's role works protectively for towns but proactively against wolves for vote mechanics.

Unless someone tells me that they role-blocked Jack last night or the wolf-team is exactly Jack + LC (when its looking like there may only be on left), this plan is completely fool-proof and helps us on our solving as we wont have to consider the other for a deletion.

I don't agree with 2 on a mech level, but the point is moot. If you are right that there is only one wolf left, then LC flipping wolf ends the game, and if there are multiple wolves left, LC flipping wolf and the game not ending tells us there is another wolf, in which case we can re-evaluate the possibility of w/w in LC/Jack tomorrow with the new info we get.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 22, 2021 2:36 pm

Seanzie wrote: ↑Mon Mar 22, 2021 12:34 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 22, 2021 11:58 am I plan on putting in some work but if like day would end now with LC going over, we should tie myself and LC (self preserve votes included) so that if both players are town, we can resolve both players. There’s literally no downside as LC will always be yeeted if he’s scum and the votes are tied.

I definitely support this plan. This ensures that we either

1. flip a wolf,
2. flip Town!LC, and can immediately conclude that Jack is a wolf, or
3. flip Town!Jack and can immediately conclude that LC is also town.

I think my role (and perhaps TSP if they are Mayor Ascorti, but their vote manipulation cannot mess us up here) is the only one with vote manipulation left, and I promise not to use it, so this plan should be solid.

If we all agree, we should divide up into two groups of 4, and anyone going off-plan should be treated as outed scum.

Your option 2 isn’t how my role works.

If LC and I are both town and tied on the poll, my role will do nothing and the host will flip a coin. If I die, it proves there was a coin flip and thus, LC is town. If LC dies (and flips town), it doesn’t prove anything because my power doing nothing because we’re the same alignment and my power doing nothing because I’m a lying wolf look identical.

You are a 3-shot grenadier. Three times during the game during any separate night phases, you may hurl the Holy Hand Grenade of Antioch at a player. If they are aligned with an enemy faction, they will have one secret vote added to their names in the following day's elimination poll. If they are not aligned with an enemy faction, they will have one vote secretly removed from their name in the following day's poll.

If the following 3 things happens:

1. the poll is tied between you and LC,
2. LC is town, and
3. you indeed shot LC last night,

then LC will have one vote removed, and thus you are guaranteed to flip in this case. As such, if LC flips town, that is conclusive evidence that you did not shoot LC last night, and as such I will assume you are a wolf.

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Mar 22, 2021 12:56 pm But can we not tie it with Jack if he's confirmed Arthur Pendragon? I guess this is probably confirming he is that role as well, right?

Jack is not confirmed, and I think he is in most people's PoE. Unfortunately, this strategy can't really confirm him (it can give some evidence that he is probably town, but can't mech clear him), but it either confirms you or outs Jack if you are town, and is guaranteed to kill a wolf if you are wolf.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 22, 2021 11:58 am I plan on putting in some work but if like day would end now with LC going over, we should tie myself and LC (self preserve votes included) so that if both players are town, we can resolve both players. There’s literally no downside as LC will always be yeeted if he’s scum and the votes are tied.

I definitely support this plan. This ensures that we either

1. flip a wolf,
2. flip Town!LC, and can immediately conclude that Jack is a wolf, or
3. flip Town!Jack and can immediately conclude that LC is also town.

I think my role (and perhaps TSP if they are Mayor Ascorti, but their vote manipulation cannot mess us up here) is the only one with vote manipulation left, and I promise not to use it, so this plan should be solid.

If we all agree, we should divide up into two groups of 4, and anyone going off-plan should be treated as outed scum.

@Jackofhearts2005 Who did you shoot your grenade at?

If you don't answer this, I'mma vote you.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Mar 22, 2021 12:11 am Or like rather I think your BOS count iscorrect but it makes an assumption about your ??? which you also assign

The ??? is you. I am assuming Epi is the mazonizer from BoS because that really seems likely, which means there is one dead BoS and two live BoS claims.

Can you claim already? You not claiming is making it harder to figure out what is going on. Especially if you can clear yourself with your claim. I know a lot of people townread you, but I wasn't around for whatever you did to get those townreads.

So right now we have:

Jackofhearts2005 - Authur Pendragon of BoS
Long Con - Unspecified vaniila of Wastelander
Marmot - AHS-9 of Hubologists
MartinGG99 - Louis Salvatore of New Reno
Poison / Syn / Seanzie - Sheriff Marion of Redding
Spacedaisy / sprityo - Joshua of BoS
TonyStarkPrime - Unknown
Urist - Vice President Carlson of NCR

Assuming all these are true, this gives us faction sizes of:
Wastelanders - 5
NCR - 3
BoS - 3
Arroyo - 2
Redding - 1
New Reno - 2
Hubologist - 2
JJJ - 1
??? - 1

TSP I think just softclaimed Redding, or if not, he isn't paying attention. If TSP is indeed Redding, then for balance purposes I would say Marmot is definitely clear, and Jack is also probably clear? So in that world, LC is the clear vote, with a very small side of Jack.

If TSP is not redding, then whatever faction he is in I think would need to be examined. LC probably still questionable.

@TonyStarkPrime, what are you? I think everyone else has claimed.

Wild guess, Grogu is the architect Quincy.

@Marmot, Grogu has claimed. Do you have info to share from last night?

Grogu wrote: ↑Sat Mar 20, 2021 6:10 pm I tracked sprit to marmot. That’s not good

And what role/alignment are you?

Grogu taking the time to try to figure out what Joshua's powers are before giving his results here I think looks very bad for Grogu.

Seanzie wrote: ↑Sat Mar 20, 2021 6:06 pm

Grogu wrote: ↑Sat Mar 20, 2021 6:04 pm

Seanzie wrote: ↑Sat Mar 20, 2021 3:43 pm @Urist @Grogu @Jackofhearts2005 @MartinGG99 @sprityo

Why are all of you voting Slaver? From what I can tell based on your claims, this is not in line with your wincon, so y'all better have good explanations for your thinking.

@TonyStarkPrime Is your alignment known? If so, what is it? Is Slaver death part of your wincon? If not, please also answer the question above.

I feel like Marmot and LC should be more or less clear off this since they are voting to narrow the Enclave PoE, whereas I'd guess some people voting for Alison are doing it to avoid narrowing the Enclave PoE.

@Seanzie I rather not vote Alison. I rather not vote me but Is going to be hard for me to play next day phase. I’m going to claim everything and we can elim sprityo instead.

If you're going to claim, then do it. We can sort out Sprityo afterwards.

Since there is less than an hour left in the day, you stalling isn't helping anything. Please claim.

Grogu wrote: ↑Sat Mar 20, 2021 6:04 pm

Seanzie wrote: ↑Sat Mar 20, 2021 3:43 pm @Urist @Grogu @Jackofhearts2005 @MartinGG99 @sprityo

Why are all of you voting Slaver? From what I can tell based on your claims, this is not in line with your wincon, so y'all better have good explanations for your thinking.

@TonyStarkPrime Is your alignment known? If so, what is it? Is Slaver death part of your wincon? If not, please also answer the question above.

I feel like Marmot and LC should be more or less clear off this since they are voting to narrow the Enclave PoE, whereas I'd guess some people voting for Alison are doing it to avoid narrowing the Enclave PoE.

@Seanzie I rather not vote Alison. I rather not vote me but Is going to be hard for me to play next day phase. I’m going to claim everything and we can elim sprityo instead.

If you're going to claim, then do it. We can sort out Sprityo afterwards.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Mar 20, 2021 5:51 pm it should be as clear that frank does not have a shot remaining as it is that alison does not have a shot, no?

No. If Alison had a shot left after being outed yesterday, she would have used it last night to PROVE that she didn't have a shot left, since that makes her less of a threat to town, and more easily ignorable.

Frank on the otherhand might be waiting for full claims to pick a good target, or to see if there are any protects left. He probably doesn't have a shot, but the chances of him having a shot are much higher than Alison at this point.

Seanzie wrote: ↑Sat Mar 20, 2021 5:47 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Mar 20, 2021 5:41 pm

Seanzie wrote: ↑Sat Mar 20, 2021 3:43 pm @Urist @Grogu @Jackofhearts2005 @MartinGG99 @sprityo

Why are all of you voting Slaver? From what I can tell based on your claims, this is not in line with your wincon, so y'all better have good explanations for your thinking.

@TonyStarkPrime Is your alignment known? If so, what is it? Is Slaver death part of your wincon? If not, please also answer the question above.

I feel like Marmot and LC should be more or less clear off this since they are voting to narrow the Enclave PoE, whereas I'd guess some people voting for Alison are doing it to avoid narrowing the Enclave PoE.

killing the slaver gives me the ability to not play the game on the weekend.

as you presumably know, the slaver essentially counts as a number for the wolves and removing them from the game does not change the number of chops we have within the PoE. I would argue that, conversely, Marmot and LC should be considered suspicious for voting to do anything that is not kill someone who is arguably a flipped wolf

The slaver is not a wolf in any way shape or form though. We don't need to kill the slaver to win, and if it was LYLO, the slaver could only wolf-side if their wincon was satisfied, so while their wincon is not satisfied, the slaver has to be more or less neutral, and after their wincon is satisfied, the slaver is not beholden to either team, and will just try to end the game asap.

Also, the slaver adds restrictions to what the wolves can do. If the wolves aren't reasonably siding with the slaver, the slaver will probably start turning on them. If they wolves are siding with the slaver, this limits their options for who they can NK, and may force them to NK less favorable choices.

Also, it is very clear at this point that Alison does not have a shot left, where Frank may still have a shot. For us to not try to lunch Frank is extremely bad for town right now.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Mar 20, 2021 5:41 pm

Seanzie wrote: ↑Sat Mar 20, 2021 3:43 pm @Urist @Grogu @Jackofhearts2005 @MartinGG99 @sprityo

Why are all of you voting Slaver? From what I can tell based on your claims, this is not in line with your wincon, so y'all better have good explanations for your thinking.

@TonyStarkPrime Is your alignment known? If so, what is it? Is Slaver death part of your wincon? If not, please also answer the question above.

I feel like Marmot and LC should be more or less clear off this since they are voting to narrow the Enclave PoE, whereas I'd guess some people voting for Alison are doing it to avoid narrowing the Enclave PoE.

killing the slaver gives me the ability to not play the game on the weekend.

as you presumably know, the slaver essentially counts as a number for the wolves and removing them from the game does not change the number of chops we have within the PoE. I would argue that, conversely, Marmot and LC should be considered suspicious for voting to do anything that is not kill someone who is arguably a flipped wolf

The slaver is not a wolf in any way shape or form though. We don't need to kill the slaver to win, and if it was LYLO, the slaver could only wolf-side if their wincon was satisfied, so while their wincon is not satisfied, the slaver has to be more or less neutral, and after their wincon is satisfied, the slaver is not beholden to either team, and will just try to end the game asap.

Also, the slaver adds restrictions to what the wolves can do. If the wolves aren't reasonably siding with the slaver, the slaver will probably start turning on them. If they wolves are siding with the slaver, this limits their options for who they can NK, and may force them to NK less favorable choices.

@Urist @Grogu @Jackofhearts2005 @MartinGG99 @sprityo

Why are all of you voting Slaver? From what I can tell based on your claims, this is not in line with your wincon, so y'all better have good explanations for your thinking.

@TonyStarkPrime Is your alignment known? If so, what is it? Is Slaver death part of your wincon? If not, please also answer the question above.

I feel like Marmot and LC should be more or less clear off this since they are voting to narrow the Enclave PoE, whereas I'd guess some people voting for Alison are doing it to avoid narrowing the Enclave PoE.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Fri Mar 19, 2021 7:10 pm well, if the slaver stays alive, then i have to find a way to make sure both grogu and marmot get yeeted instead of just hoping one of them gets yote randomly, so that could be an incentive.

Well right now, I am kind of thinking Grogu would make a good choice for today, so I'll be happy to help you there.

Urist wrote: ↑Fri Mar 19, 2021 6:57 pm Why are people voting on not-alison

Because Alison is very clearly not Enclave, and there is like a 99.9% chances she has no shots left. A better question to ask imo would be "Why are people who don't need Alison dead for their wincon voting Alison?"

Seanzie wrote: ↑Fri Mar 19, 2021 4:59 pm

Urist wrote: ↑Fri Mar 19, 2021 4:55 pm I already claimed to be ncr

In that case, can you hardclaim your role right now?

Nevermind, I misread your role and got confused.

Urist wrote: ↑Fri Mar 19, 2021 4:55 pm I already claimed to be ncr

In that case, can you hardclaim your role right now?

I'm starting to suspect Sprityo the most. Grogu should claim alignment, and then I think Sprityo should claim.

@TonyStarkPrime @Urist @sprityo please claim alignment ASAP.

@Grogu please hardclaim your role ASAP.

Marmot wrote: ↑Fri Mar 19, 2021 1:23 pm I'm getting kinda tired of waiting for people to claim.

[VOTE: Grogu] aubergine

Agreed. [VOTE: Grogu] aubergine Grogu, please claim asap.

Seanzie wrote: ↑Fri Mar 19, 2021 1:02 am

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 19, 2021 1:01 am Did Seanzie claim yet?

I mean, I' haven't, but my slot has.

FTR I am Sheriff Marion of Redding. My slot shot KZA on N3, so I am a sheriff out of bullets...

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 19, 2021 1:01 am Did Seanzie claim yet?

I mean, I' haven't, but my slot has.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Mar 19, 2021 12:51 am

Seanzie wrote: ↑Fri Mar 19, 2021 12:50 am

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Mar 19, 2021 12:47 am

Seanzie wrote: ↑Fri Mar 19, 2021 12:41 am

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Mar 19, 2021 12:40 am hang on what

what about what?

Also, even though there are people whose claims I am more curious about than yours, with fake claims order isn't super relevant. Have you claimed? if not, would you?

no for a reason, but it's roughly available. I promise that my claim is not relevant (not from a low numbered group, no info, not clearable) and I'll provide it when the time is right

Do you think the time will be right in this dayphase? I'd personally like to see all claims before EoD today, and even claims that seem not relevant could be helpful. Especially if not from a low-numbered group, since every new claim within a group makes the claims in that group less likely to be true.

depends on how quickly certain other people show up

but

"Especially if not from a low-numbered group, since every new claim within a group makes the claims in that group less likely to be true."

is not strictly true. i mean it's slightly true but like basically not

Yeah, I mean, I don't think faction numbers are a foolproof way to find suspects, but knowing them can help.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Fri Mar 19, 2021 12:50 am my role should be obvious from context by now so i'll pass on claiming i guess

Just to be sure, you are Fawkes, right? You hooked up with Epi after Epi went through Vault 87?

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Mar 19, 2021 12:47 am

Seanzie wrote: ↑Fri Mar 19, 2021 12:41 am

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Mar 19, 2021 12:40 am hang on what

what about what?

Also, even though there are people whose claims I am more curious about than yours, with fake claims order isn't super relevant. Have you claimed? if not, would you?

no for a reason, but it's roughly available. I promise that my claim is not relevant (not from a low numbered group, no info, not clearable) and I'll provide it when the time is right

Do you think the time will be right in this dayphase? I'd personally like to see all claims before EoD today, and even claims that seem not relevant could be helpful. Especially if not from a low-numbered group, since every new claim within a group makes the claims in that group less likely to be true.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 19, 2021 12:42 am I am three children in a suit. That’s the confusion.

Spoiler: show

Warhammer has driven me to drink.

Multiple users using the same account is against the rules. Someone please modkill these children.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Mar 19, 2021 12:40 am hang on what

what about what?

Also, even though there are people whose claims I am more curious about than yours, with fake claims order isn't super relevant. Have you claimed? if not, would you?

Seanzie wrote: ↑Fri Mar 19, 2021 12:28 am

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 19, 2021 12:24 am

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Mar 19, 2021 12:21 am technically jack's claim holds under the same principle though I certainly expect that this doesn't remain the case

Oh yeah, hey. You can’t yeet me cause I’m confirmed town or self resolving or whatever people thought about Chopchop.

rollsafe.jpg

If this is about the whole "there must be at least one BoS" thing, then uhh... no.

I do think it is relatively likely that there are two BoS though (just guessing here, but seems likely considering that their enemies are numerous and strong) so I suppose your (Jack) claim still looks okay, pending other claims.

Ugh, but that means there are more than 2 BoS...

Can someone tell me, is NCR wiped out? I know we know VC was wiped out, are we privy to town factions being killed as well?

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 19, 2021 12:24 am

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Mar 19, 2021 12:21 am technically jack's claim holds under the same principle though I certainly expect that this doesn't remain the case

Oh yeah, hey. You can’t yeet me cause I’m confirmed town or self resolving or whatever people thought about Chopchop.

rollsafe.jpg

If this is about the whole "there must be at least one BoS" thing, then uhh... no.

I do think it is relatively likely that there are two BoS though (just guessing here, but seems likely considering that their enemies are numerous and strong) so I suppose your (Jack) claim still looks okay, pending other claims.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 19, 2021 12:23 am

Seanzie wrote: ↑Fri Mar 19, 2021 12:11 am

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 19, 2021 12:01 am Whatever. I’m Arthur of the Brotherhood of Steel. I can prove myself (somewhat) by tying a vote between myself any my target. Mafia has no vote manipulation. We can do this three times until people believe because I haven’t targeted anybody all game.

You could only prove yourself if you knew your target was scum, so this is bad.

Either way, if you are telling the truth, I strongly recommend you start shooting ASAP, since your shots would only help town in this setup, and it is unclear if you'll be around for 4+ more nights.

I guess I skimmed over the “if they are part of an enemy faction” bit.

Idk if I would have used the power all that differently. Maybe memed about letting it rand a bit harder. Whatever.

I’m annoyed that it won’t clear me unless my target is a wolf tho.

Either way, if you are telling the truth, you should start shooting ASAP. Your ability has only positive utility for town.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Mar 19, 2021 12:21 am technically jack's claim holds under the same principle though I certainly expect that this doesn't remain the case

What do you mean?

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Mar 18, 2021 7:19 pm

Just want to say that I appreciate Epi's dedication to flavor throughout this game.

@Grogu what is your role?

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 19, 2021 12:01 am Whatever. I’m Arthur of the Brotherhood of Steel. I can prove myself (somewhat) by tying a vote between myself any my target. Mafia has no vote manipulation. We can do this three times until people believe because I haven’t targeted anybody all game.

You could only prove yourself if you knew your target was scum, so this is bad.

Either way, if you are telling the truth, I strongly recommend you start shooting ASAP, since your shots would only help town in this setup, and it is unclear if you'll be around for 4+ more nights.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Thu Mar 18, 2021 11:59 pm

Seanzie wrote: ↑Thu Mar 18, 2021 11:57 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 18, 2021 7:10 pm [VOTE: Alison] aubergine

Or Jack.

Also it might be a really good idea to massclaim today.

Agreed.

I am thinking for order of claims something like:

Jack, Grogu, Spirityo, Martin, TSP, Urist.

Did I miss anyone who hasn't claimed yet? People like LC and Kyle should also probably hardclaim just to make sure we are all on the same page, but that is less of a worry.

marmot's got info to claim.

Oh yes, Marmot I'd put after Grogu, before martin, interchangable with Spirityo.

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Mar 18, 2021 11:58 pm I'm quite hardclaimed on Vanilla Wastelander.

I think it would be good for you to hardclaim which wastelander you are at some point.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 18, 2021 7:10 pm [VOTE: Alison] aubergine

Or Jack.

Also it might be a really good idea to massclaim today.

Agreed.

I am thinking for order of claims something like:

Jack, Grogu, Spirityo, Martin, TSP, Urist.

Did I miss anyone who hasn't claimed yet? People like LC and Kyle should also probably hardclaim just to make sure we are all on the same page, but that is less of a worry.

sprityo wrote: ↑Wed Mar 17, 2021 6:52 pm

Seanzie wrote: ↑Wed Mar 17, 2021 6:47 pm

sprityo wrote: ↑Wed Mar 17, 2021 6:43 pm

Seanzie wrote: ↑Wed Mar 17, 2021 6:41 pm [VOTE: chop chop] aubergine

hm? why the tie?

Are you worried about Chop possibly getting chopped?

no i just wanted alison dead more

Why is that? You know Chop is Enclave, right? the big bad?

sprityo wrote: ↑Wed Mar 17, 2021 6:43 pm

Seanzie wrote: ↑Wed Mar 17, 2021 6:41 pm [VOTE: chop chop] aubergine

hm? why the tie?

Are you worried about Chop possibly getting chopped?

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 17, 2021 3:30 pm

Seanzie wrote: ↑Wed Mar 17, 2021 3:25 pm Silly question, how many hours until EoD? I am having a hard time figuring this out with daylight savings time.

3 and 1/2 hours, I think.

Hmm, cool, so the poll is 6pm Central Daylight Time now? That works well because that is what I am in.

Silly question, how many hours until EoD? I am having a hard time figuring this out with daylight savings time.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 17, 2021 12:36 am

Seanzie wrote: ↑Wed Mar 17, 2021 12:02 am

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 11:56 pm There's also the issue that Epignosis basically has to kill Marmot (if hubologist) if we never yeet Alison.

If Epi gets a kill at some point, he can just kill Alison himself (why would he kill Marmot over Alison here?). It is possible that some hubologists will die just by NK and such, but if there comes a time where it is very clear that Alison needs to die to stop Epi from scumsiding, then we can yeet her then. It makes no sense to do it until that point though when killing her sooner only limits our options.

I think if Epi was aware of having the ability to kill he would've let us know or used it already. But I'm no mech expert. Or maybe he does, and by voting Alison he can safely kill Chop Chop without worrying much about his own wincon because Alison, as the Slaver, has a vest. She'll just eat up the bullet without worry if she hasn't been attacked yet.

I forgot that Alison has a vest, so I give you that, but Epi gets a new power every night, right? And the power is not disclosed to him until he chooses how to "level up", so he doesn't know what ability he will have tonight.