The Syndicate

there is 3 wolves + at least 1 SUPER THIRD PARTY left. because i just realized that if a faction is eliminated, it's announced. ergo, SUPER THIRD PARTY still exists

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 7:07 pm
LinearPoint wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 7:06 pm
alexa wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 7:01 pm ok me/sabie/belzy killed mac with our event prize vig

also omg can anyone heal me .-.
3 people got vig and all shot the same person?
I imagine it was one vig and they all had to decide who to shoot

yeah this

it was from walrus, still don't know the prize from poem

if a town healer exists pls help me

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 7:02 pm
alexa wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 7:01 pm ok me/sabie/belzy killed mac with our event prize vig

also omg can anyone heal me .-.
Nice

So sabie and belzy confirmed then?

well i'm confirming belzy as town

sabie is technically not confirmed because it was a majority vote

also sabie said they were shooting paopan and iddn't??

ok me/sabie/belzy killed mac with our event prize vig

also omg can anyone heal me .-.

NVM, a vest would not work there

Creature wrote: ↑Sun Feb 06, 2022 6:58 pm
alexa wrote: ↑Sun Feb 06, 2022 6:56 pm question: does a vest protect someone from a soup kill?
This is a good question

if so/if LP has more vests, they can give it to someone who is the most outed. checking w/nook but EOD is coming

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sun Feb 06, 2022 6:56 pm Meanwhile. Mac continues to say he's town without showing it.

yeah, this. i was rolling my eyes at a lot of his posts

question: does a vest protect someone from a soup kill?

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sun Feb 06, 2022 6:55 pm
alexa wrote: ↑Sun Feb 06, 2022 6:52 pm Sloonei and JPIC are both names that like, feel okay when they're posting but increasingly pop up in my mind as "hmmm.. maybe it could be them" when the POE gets tighter
Yeah, this. But I do just think JPIC's game here tracks well to his town meta.

what are the differences you perceive in his meta?

he's someone i've never really been able to read well tbh

i see i have not missed very much

what a disappointing day tbh

Sloonei and JPIC are both names that like, feel okay when they're posting but increasingly pop up in my mind as "hmmm.. maybe it could be them" when the POE gets tighter

Creature wrote: ↑Sun Feb 06, 2022 6:46 pm If you receive a night 3 only vig shot from walrus you're not wasting it, right?

no, it should be used in non-mech POE

Creature wrote: ↑Sun Feb 06, 2022 6:44 pm
alexa wrote: ↑Sun Feb 06, 2022 6:42 pm my POE is the same as when i talked about it before, with the caveat that it may change based on what happens with soup. if someone is being miscleared in illario/dya for the shot, it's much more likely dya than illario IMO. sadly i just haven't had the time to buckle down and solve this phase, but if i live to tomorrow i should get much more done
Weirdly I now think ilario is more likely to shoot a wolf buddy than dyachei

technically but i am clearing him for other reasons. also i don't think he'd shoot dizzy of all people

or the motivation tbh. having to wait 48 hours to kill an outed wolf fucking sucks

my POE is the same as when i talked about it before, with the caveat that it may change based on what happens with soup. if someone is being miscleared in illario/dya for the shot, it's much more likely dya than illario IMO. sadly i just haven't had the time to buckle down and solve this phase, but if i live to tomorrow i should get much more done

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sun Feb 06, 2022 6:36 pm
alexa wrote: ↑Sun Feb 06, 2022 6:25 pm IMO Wilgy/Paopan are both good candidates for vig shot in the POE
Just fuck my shit up fam

Paopan > you IMO

Creature wrote: ↑Sun Feb 06, 2022 6:33 pm Feels like we're either losing tonight or tomorrow

if we do, i am ok taking the blame for what i outed. i am reallly bad about shutting up about role things when i'm frustrated about something and i'm sorry.

Creature wrote: ↑Sun Feb 06, 2022 6:32 pm idk I want to sheep Seanzie on Paopan and they also claimed some protective role

but LP is also a protective role + there's no way to verify that

IMO Wilgy/Paopan are both good candidates for vig shot in the POE

sabie12 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 06, 2022 6:18 pm
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Jan 29, 2022 8:18 pm I'm probably not going to catch up tonight, but I have a few things I want to say.

@Belzy I wasn't originally going to say anything, because I'm trying to be all cool lately. But I need to. You do realise that your read on me is entirely meme tier? I can not think of one single game where you don't scum read me first thing D1. I don't think you have mal intent here, but you seem to be operating with expectations of my play that are from 7 years ago. Please just consider this, and please spend time not only focusing on me.

Belzy
Sean
Guillo
Alexa

^These are the town reads I care the most about.

Sean cares about his own thoughts and suspicions and follows them up, and he's also doing classic town!Sean things in response to people either town reading him and accusing him.
Guillo has had many posts I found towny from him. Both Sean and Guillo are showing their paranoid town play styles imo. I think I'm pretty good at reading both of them actually.
Alexa is town for how she went about her role check on Nut. I also think that she wouldn't have a role check as mafia when that is how mafia makes the soup kill tbh, but that is kind of besides the point. Her posts are kind of "messy" in a way I find they are as town, while they are more deliberate as scum. I've also been pretty good at reading Alexa.

There's a bunch of players I town read to a lighter degree or even a pretty solid degree, probably too many, but the aforementioned are the ones I feel I have a better handle on reading.

In any case, I feel the game is in a pretty ok spot consensus-wise.

I have some concerns about Mac. Feels like he's not really landing any of his thoughts, and they seem to be a bit all over the place, which I find scummy for him.
I'm also suspicious of Scotty, feel like his posts are just awkward, trying to chime in but not really going anywhere.
Sabie is meh.

I think these are the things I've been thinking about the most.
So I'm trying to make sense of everything this game which is probably an impossible task. I know we have a poe kind of but there is just something that kind of stood out to me. I know people are thinking alexa is town because of her role cop thing but In reading dizzys iso I found this post where he mentions oh well it wouldn't make sense for mafia to have a role like that with soup kills being a thing....but like what if they did choose thier roles? I would think they would want a role like that on their team. Role cop is different than alignment cop so like obviously mafia wouldn't need an alignment cop but a role cop? Very helpful. I know there was also a protect claim but that just stood out to me. Porscha and belzy's clear also comes from this assumption. I think mafia benefits from confusing us and getting us to fight amongst ourselves or lull into a false sense of security. It definitely has worked on me because I've had a hard time figuring out what the right thing to do is. I'm only throwing this out there in case I die in the night and don't get a chance to share my thoughts.

mafia did have a limited rolecop though: it was dizzy

i don't think my role is the only reason people are saying i'm town though, there's multiple mech things in my favor

ok hi i've made it for EOD, sorry was travellling all day, I assume nothing major has happened?

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sun Feb 06, 2022 3:00 pm And everyone has gone for a rest now that we have TSP lined up, and I get that, but honestly @alexa @Belzy @Porscha @falcon45ca you guys are increasingly likely to be souped soon, so now may be your last chance to say things.

Yeah I'll say some things before EOD, driving home today as I'm staying with my parents for the week and it's a long drive so I may not be here until like an hour before EOD but I'll definitely have time before then to get some stuff out

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Feb 05, 2022 1:40 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Sat Feb 05, 2022 1:37 pm
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Feb 05, 2022 1:33 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Sat Feb 05, 2022 1:28 pm
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Feb 05, 2022 1:15 pm Creature is in the wider PoE, but I don't think ilario's casing has moved him from being in the outer portion of it for me.
I think we're at that stage we don't even know what to do so if anyone ever bothers to grab an ISO and biasedly slap wolf motivation behind every post that already makes a better case than any static POE we keep flip-flopping around.
I mean, yeah, we can make a wolf case out of anyone at this point. It's all about construing intentions.

But we're in a good position mech-wise, at least as far as we can tell, and we have a red to chop today, so I don't mind ilario casing the shit out of you like this. It's good to poke and prod at the fringes to see what shakes out. Ideally someone slaps LP about a bit too, for instance. Actually I think if this game is lacking something it's proper cases. People are largely resorting to single-post reads or generic 'I think they're town/scum' without much expansion. I don't mean we need just the conventional iso & analyse, but it might help for people to actually go back into isos and check their assumptions again to challenge or confirm them a bit before repeating the same reads ad nauseum.
"But we're in a good position mech-wise"

Nope. We aren't. If my count is correct, wolves can get up to five soup kills tonight and that'd bring us to 6 v 4 not counting sabie's vig shot.
Okay true. But at least as of right now we've got a good portion of the playerlist cleared. And there's always a chance the wolves mess up the soup, if even one person has fudged their role claim enough.

Creature wrote: ↑Sat Feb 05, 2022 1:49 pm
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Feb 05, 2022 1:48 pm Should also note that the soup chef is outed the morning after. So worst case scenario we go 6 v 4, but actually we'll know one more, which gives us one more piece of intel to triangulate.

I'm feeling strangely optimistic. That worries me.
The soup chef isn't outed if all their guesses are correct.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Feb 05, 2022 1:50 pm Oh I didn't read that part.

wait.. you just commented on it 2 posts ago though? how did you not read it?

assuming MR is closed to cleared from falcon if he's legit but in case some shenanigans are going on with mech clears, don't want to ignore this

having an outed wolf being voted and no apparently way to kill them before EOD makes it hard to like, feel motivated to solve much

ilario wrote: ↑Sat Feb 05, 2022 11:52 am
ilario wrote: ↑Sat Feb 05, 2022 11:49 am
Creature wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 6:56 pm Radishes, JPIC, TSP participating of this bullshit all look wolfy

Creature wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 7:00 pm TSP looks wolfy now

Creature wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 7:15 pm
c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 7:13 pm
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 7:10 pm 112
Creature
DrWilgy
hollowkatt
LinearPoint
sabie12
sig
TonyStarkPrime

Boom. If there's not wolf in here I quit mafia forever. Probably.
Creature and hk being in this list feels silly. I'm also increasingly thinking TSP's town.
TSP was one of the players constantly sheeping me yesterday on bad CFDs

Creature wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 7:20 pm
LinearPoint wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 7:19 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 7:18 pm
LinearPoint wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 7:15 pm We could just put the people on the Sean wagon and cut that playerbase in half.
Seemed pretty Mafia driven with likely 2-3 on it.
But then we hit like 60% town easy. Bad take.
Wrong.
Sean wagon: Urist, NotAnAxehole, Paopan, Belzy, TonyStarkPrime, DrWilgy, nutella
Urist and NAA already dead.
Paopan, Belzy, TonyStarkPrime, DrWilgy, nutella. At least 2 of these are Mafia. Probably 3.
Two of them just died so that leaves Paopan, Belzy, TSP, Wilgy and nutella

Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 3:27 pm Bit worried about TSP having 369 posts but being low impact

Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 3:31 pm I think TSP has wolf equity and most of their posts felt like pocket attempts

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Feb 03, 2022 7:04 pm hollowkatt (16): Creature, sig, LinearPoint, Belzy, 112, TonyStarkPrime, DrWilgy, Sloonei, dyachei, c4e5g3d5, falcon45ca, alexa, sabie12, Guillotine, Master Radishes, Phil and Gloria
sig (11): Sloonei, Belzy, 112, Porscha, falcon45ca, alexa, sabie12, LinearPoint, Master Radishes, Phil and Gloria, Justplayingitcool
112 (10): Sloonei, Porscha, hollowkatt, sig, TonyStarkPrime, alexa, dyachei, DrWilgy, Paopan, Guillotine
Guillotine (9): 112, Creature, Sloonei, Master Radishes, dyachei, Justplayingitcool, LinearPoint, ilario, DrWilgy
DrWilgy (8): TonyStarkPrime, c4e5g3d5, dyachei, hollowkatt, 112, sabie12, Paopan, LinearPoint
TonyStarkPrime (8): Paopan, Porscha, Belzy, Guillotine, Justplayingitcool, falcon45ca, hollowkatt, Master Radishes
sabie12 (5): alexa, sig, falcon45ca, hollowkatt, Phil and Gloria
c4e5g3d5 (4): Phil and Gloria, sig, TonyStarkPrime, Belzy

This is probably the final nail in the coffin and sure I could read the rest of his iso but there’s no convincing me anymore he’s not a wolf

He spends a great deal talking about tsp being a wolf compared to guillo who he doesn’t mention or interact with once in his entire iso until just barely before eod d2. Nevertheless creature has built up a narrative that tsp is a wolf since d1 and yet his vote ends up on guillo not tsp. 1 vote was the difference between his sr for days (tsp) surviving over guillo

Yeah, the Guillo vote didn't make a ton of sense to me and i could definitely see w!Creature using Sloonei/dya's bad pushes as an excuse to move his vote there. I don't think Creature is a wolf with dya though, because at EOD Creature asked dya if he should vote there/said he was moving if dya said so and i don't think he'd be bold enough to do that as W/W, i'm pretty sure it'd be much more likely w!him using some villagers bad pushes to justify his own in that scenario

ilario wrote: ↑Sat Feb 05, 2022 10:55 am
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Feb 05, 2022 10:50 am If Creature is mafia, he has undergone a transformation since I last played with him. Granted, there has been a long enough gap for that to be possible.
Yeah he played out of his mind this game regardless

But on close inspection a lot of his post count is over inflated

He tends to say alota the same things over and continually asks very similar questions with little follow up

I can see this, agree he's felt more exaggerated than usual. Not as convinced as you are though based on meta

ilario wrote: ↑Sat Feb 05, 2022 10:17 am
Creature wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 4:06 pm Fuck this

[VOTE: Seanzie] aubergine

Creature wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 4:09 pm Let's lynch people who have been actually wolfy for fuck's sake

Creature wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 4:12 pm Seanzie is someone I can see wolves picking

Creature wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 4:11 pm I won't oppose the policy on NAA tbh

It just sucks we'd be 1/6 D1

Creature wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 4:10 pm c4 is not TMIing

I was pretty aware NAA would fake red checks here

Like the sudden snap vote onto seanzie who was obvtown after alexa shot alison is just bad

In the second quote he wants people who have actually been Wolfy, but if you look for seanzie in his iso prior to that there’s almost no mention of him. And he says to kill wolfy people but in the subsequent posts at the same time won’t oppose to a policy on NAA despite thinking naa is town? Like fr??

And he wants seanzie just because he’s someone wolves can pick despite in the earlier posts creature thinks it’s more likely that mafia chose roles over players. That’s his only justification for pushing seanzie, “he’s someone wolves can pick”. Like no, that’s not style talking or personality it’s just a wolf

This is a good point though

@Creature, why did you vote Seanzie?

Creature's Shakespeare wolf game is a lot of "I don't trust anyone, thread feels wolfy," complaining, some of which is vaguely similar to moments this game

A key difference imo is like.. the confidence behind their reads though, at least from what I'm seeing by day 2. Once they form reads, they don't doubt themselves consistently which I've always found is something they tend to do more as a villager. Feels like I'm seeing a lot less personality behind their posting than I have this game - and more empty questioning

Keep in mind, 3 hour game day though

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Feb 05, 2022 4:27 pm I've cracked open TSP's iso.

In the first two pages I notice a fair few posts about/around LP and Creature. I'm not ready to decide what to make of them, but if anyone fancies themselves a spew reader and can parse TSP's all-over-the-place style then have a looksie.

i don't see how LP could be a wolf unless they're lying about the vest and it was from someone else, or unless idk, sabie is a wolf/C4 was factional and i was hit by a 3P. giving me a vest for cred only to pop it the next night would be pretty damn silly

Creature wrote: ↑Sat Feb 05, 2022 4:26 pm
alexa wrote: ↑Sat Feb 05, 2022 4:25 pm yeah like I was saying, wolves definitely would've considered Seanzie a great D1 ML.
Does that make one of Paopan/DrWilgy wolf? Or was TSP the only wolf voting Seanzie?

Not sure atp, GTH Paopan/DrWilgy has exactly 1

A fair amount of his other reds are either mech locked or flipped villas, though

yeah like I was saying, wolves definitely would've considered Seanzie a great D1 ML.

I played with w!Creature once last May and they were pretty active/a top poster (they have only a little over half their posts here but it was a different kind of game with 3 hour days)

https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/th ... -Game-Days

I am looking at it now

alexa wrote: ↑Sat Feb 05, 2022 4:12 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Sat Feb 05, 2022 4:10 pm Are dyachei and ilario really mech cleared?
they both shot wolves in places it would've have made sense to do so as a wolf

wouldn't* have

Creature wrote: ↑Sat Feb 05, 2022 4:10 pm Are dyachei and ilario really mech cleared?

they both shot wolves in places it would've have made sense to do so as a wolf

ilario wrote: ↑Sat Feb 05, 2022 9:51 am
Creature wrote: ↑Sat Jan 29, 2022 12:37 pm
Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Sat Jan 29, 2022 12:36 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Sat Jan 29, 2022 12:35 pm
Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Sat Jan 29, 2022 12:34 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Sat Jan 29, 2022 12:33 pm Do we just lynch Marmot?
sell me
idk

Thought they seemed wolfy and Mac is voting them
what do you find wolfy about them
Very unimpressive for Marmot standards
Vague reasoning like this is usually >rand w

Agree with this with the caveat that sense it was about Marmot (who was a wolf) it's not as bad

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sat Feb 05, 2022 4:06 pm What's up with TSP being in the lead? Mechanics?

Falcon claimed a red check

tempted to call this a derp

Okay I can definitely see why illario finds Creature's early ISO bad

some of it is "this is just classic creature/personality" but it also feels exaggerated

if illario is right (which I think is a possibility) on Mac/Creature I don't think they work with sabie. They would fit much better as wolves shielding/TMIing her

ilario wrote: ↑Sat Feb 05, 2022 8:58 am
alexa wrote: ↑Sat Feb 05, 2022 7:18 am I read Mac iso for the way he treats creature and it's really bizarre
can u point to specifics? i can see them being w/w tbh

Phil and Gloria wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 8:38 am so if tsp flips mafia Creature is an outed wolf that's nice to know

Phil and Gloria wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 8:40 am
Paopan wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 8:39 am Creature is powerwolfing. But it's okay.
It's still manageable
I doubt it

this transition was something i'd noted as weird AF

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Feb 05, 2022 4:00 am Oh I found it.

I was gonna say things on Belzy. Hmm. Do we know what 'toxic' means w.r.t. that role?

No, that part was [REDACTED] from my report

there could be 1-2 wolves in the people i'm "meching" if wolves don't soup soon. but for now, i'm rolling with it.

i just wish we had a day vig so today wasn't a huge slump

please @NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME help us

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Feb 05, 2022 3:41 pm
alexa wrote: ↑Sat Feb 05, 2022 3:40 pm No Mech/Unconfirmed:
Creature
DrWilgy
Justplayingitcool
Paopan
Phil and Gloria
sabie12
Sloonei

---

Need to narrow this down to 4.
Why have you eliminated LinearPoint?

because they claimed to give me a vest, which got hit. that wouldn't make sense if they're a wolf. unless someone else who is hiding actually did.

is it too soon to read TSP for spew? he essentially gave up so

No Mech/Unconfirmed:
Creature
DrWilgy
Justplayingitcool
Paopan
Phil and Gloria
sabie12
Sloonei

---

Need to narrow this down to 4.

Oh, there's mech on MR anyway

Creature wrote: ↑Sat Feb 05, 2022 2:23 pm If we're sure alexa is town I believe she has the better POE.

TBH idk how good my POE is right now. i mean, i believe it broadly, but it's basically just a POE of non-mech clears

Mech:
alexa
Belzy
dyachei
falcon45ca
ilario
LinearPoint
Porscha

No Mech/Unconfirmed:
Creature
DrWilgy
Justplayingitcool
Master Radishes
Paopan
Phil and Gloria
sabie12
Sloonei
^
So half of these people are wolves. GTH I would cut out MR/you and narrow it down to 6 names that contain 4 wolves, but I want to look at Waza's case

TonyStarkPrime

Unfortunately I could see scum saving their soup until they feel they can reach parity from it

I regret what I outed yesterday, I'm sorry, that was bad/impulsive but moving on. No one else should claim anything related to their role

Also pretty sure my music taste is nothing like Nook's

BTW how do you guys know that the wolf captain will actually flip as wolf captain? I feel like the OP implies they would just flip as whatever role they were

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