The Syndicate

Like alison impulsively voting for h&v because they were scummy doesn't mean we want you to die and idk why you're so stuck on that when we have moved on

Hyena I don't want to kill you lmao

Poop Explosions wrote: ↑Sat May 08, 2021 5:17 pm

Poop Explosions wrote: ↑Fri May 07, 2021 6:13 pm We have two clears based on people getting overconfident on mech/angleshooty stuff, and I'd lock both of them in if I didn't just watch a bunch of the people in this list get snowed by Ran doing the exact same thing in CoV. Wanna figure out exactly how solid we are on them.

Personally I'm more confident in Syn by far, with how he instantly pulls out the red yarn and starts building conspiracy maps. I think that combined with the general subtlety of his play simply isn't a LAMIST towncred gambit. Syn simply isn't LAMIST.

I'm a lot more wary with Urist. Mac said that if Urist's town meta is tunneling, that would be his scum meta too. What makes me want to townread his thing in the first place is the sheer absurdity of his point. His flavor is thematic, therefore everyone's flavor must be thematic, therefore the janitor must be Phil because he's a "magician", even though he thinks that the janitor was a passive ability? What the fuck? So many layers to it.

Never going for either of them today anyway so it's not urgent.

@Akemi Hazelnut thoughts on these two things? I know these were things Alison picked up on too.

I'm far more confident on Syn/Hyena being town

I get the absurdity read on urist but don't think it's clearing, the whole thing is too weird

i'm probably incorrectly townreading one of poop/nook/tr but i really dont want to think about that yet

Bottom Text wrote: ↑Sat May 08, 2021 5:07 pm

Akemi Hazelnut wrote: ↑Sat May 08, 2021 5:04 pm

Bottom Text wrote: ↑Sat May 08, 2021 4:59 pm

Akemi Hazelnut wrote: ↑Sat May 08, 2021 4:58 pm at this point i just want falcon's flip tbh

why

i think they're villaging

my reasons are bad but i've seen very little actually presented for him to be consistent wagon all day

i think they're >>rand wolf both for poe reasons and they havent done anything villagery imo

falcon in particular i'm used to being pretty involved/solvey as town and he has been pretty detached here

if they are just slanky town, i dont see them being helpful in late game and i think a lot of game solves are hingeing on their flip

I no longer think that if they flip town it means mana is scum, mana has gotten a bit townier and the dichotomy read isnt as strong but I think falcon's flip will essentially tell us whether our poe is on the right track or if there's something rotten in core

what would you consider your poe again? dont remember it on the top of my head; and i still vaguely think they're not W/W with TaT?

cant speak for meta, 'detached' doesnt feel inaccurate

cant... entirely argue with the third line

main poe is falcon/mana/you/h&v

like made's catchup flurry is fakeable as wolf sure it just felt better to me but im a pushover

but also you didnt read manas posts lol

Poop Explosions wrote: ↑Sat May 08, 2021 5:06 pm

Akemi Hazelnut wrote: ↑Sat May 08, 2021 5:04 pm

Bottom Text wrote: ↑Sat May 08, 2021 4:59 pm

Akemi Hazelnut wrote: ↑Sat May 08, 2021 4:58 pm at this point i just want falcon's flip tbh

why

i think they're villaging

my reasons are bad but i've seen very little actually presented for him to be consistent wagon all day

i think they're >>rand wolf both for poe reasons and they havent done anything villagery imo

falcon in particular i'm used to being pretty involved/solvey as town and he has been pretty detached here

if they are just slanky town, i dont see them being helpful in late game and i think a lot of game solves are hingeing on their flip

I no longer think that if they flip town it means mana is scum, mana has gotten a bit townier and the dichotomy read isnt as strong but I think falcon's flip will essentially tell us whether our poe is on the right track or if there's something rotten in core

What if I told you
Wagonometrics makes Mana a more likely hit
And Mana hasn't been significantly townier

hm

maybe.gif

Bottom Text wrote: ↑Sat May 08, 2021 4:59 pm

Akemi Hazelnut wrote: ↑Sat May 08, 2021 4:58 pm at this point i just want falcon's flip tbh

why

i think they're villaging

my reasons are bad but i've seen very little actually presented for him to be consistent wagon all day

i think they're >>rand wolf both for poe reasons and they havent done anything villagery imo

falcon in particular i'm used to being pretty involved/solvey as town and he has been pretty detached here

if they are just slanky town, i dont see them being helpful in late game and i think a lot of game solves are hingeing on their flip

I no longer think that if they flip town it means mana is scum, mana has gotten a bit townier and the dichotomy read isnt as strong but I think falcon's flip will essentially tell us whether our poe is on the right track or if there's something rotten in core

at this point i just want falcon's flip tbh

Poop Explosions wrote: ↑Sat May 08, 2021 3:56 pm Yo, not reading that shit.

[VOTE: Mana] aubergine

the fuck dude

trans rights wrote: ↑Sat May 08, 2021 3:34 pm did mana's flurry of posts swing you one way or another nutella?

i think it was somewhat towny yeah

Mana wrote: ↑Sat May 08, 2021 1:13 pm @Akemi Hazelnut if FK and I are town, who is bad?

@FalconKnows if AH and I are both town, who’s bad?

ugh idk probably h&v/bottomtext with a chance of poop or tr deepwolfing me

Hi I slept until noon lol what up

Also I don't think it's true at all that my pushes have been bad since I think there's a good chance I've nailed a wolf and almost certainly have one or two more in my bottom POE. Like it beggars belief that all of Mana/FK/BT are town and that's the POE I've identified.

Ok so this discussion is going nowhere but

1) if I'm worried someone is going to catch me as scum I have a few options, including pocketing, nightkilling or just plain ignoring them. Asking my partner to loverize them and then bussing my partner is a pretty absurd theory. It makes more sense to just nightkill you in that scenario. At any rate, I had enough clout in the game that desperation plays like that don't make sense regardless. You aren't exeing me on D2.

2) If I came into the day planning to bus H&V I wouldn't out a readslist having them as a townread early on in D2.

3) I think a lot of the characteristics you're identifying as opportunistic are like, just the way nutella and I play. We see scummy shit, we jump on it. If someone claims a night action that is absolutely anti-town, I'm going to vote that person until I get a good explanation for why they did it. I don't know if it's a playstyle clash or what that's causing you to view that as scummy, but I personally believe town should not hold back from making forceful pushes when new info crops up, or when someone makes a really wolfy post.

In general I think you're (as Mac loves to say) jumping the shark. The stuff you're saying is scummy for us is literally just the way we play.

Timsup2gettinserious wrote: ↑Fri May 07, 2021 10:56 pm Do you know what I spent a lot of D1 doing? I spent it asking other people about the Akemi slot. You can go and look in my ISO at it. The funny thing is, is that I was actually townreading you at that point, and wanted to see how others would react to me asking about you. What I think now, though, is that you got nervous about me and thought that I was preparing to make a push on you at some point. That's why you had H&V loverize me. That way, when you bussed H&V at some point, I'd die, too, and you'd get the town cred for chopping H&V. Am I getting warm, Akemi?

....what on earth

Timsup2gettinserious wrote: ↑Fri May 07, 2021 10:53 pm

Akemi Hazelnut wrote: ↑Fri May 07, 2021 10:48 pm I think I made it pretty clear when I was moving my vote without alison's input, hyena i think youre reading too much into things that are unrelated

They are unrelated, but that's why I think you could be scum. I think you're playing opportunistically rather than with any set agenda, and I think you're pushes on people have been pretty bad.

yeah i play opportunistically lmao

I think I made it pretty clear when I was moving my vote without alison's input, hyena i think youre reading too much into things that are unrelated

Okay well I'm not going to apologize for not having the same read on Mana as you/pushing you early D1, or jumping on people who have objectively scummy claims/actions so unless you have specific questions you want to ask me about why I did certain things there's not much I can help you with here.

Timsup2gettinserious wrote: ↑Fri May 07, 2021 10:41 pm And here's the series of posts that I noticed that made me think you jumped onto BT because of us.

Starts with you jumping into my interaction with Bottom Text:

Akemi Hazelnut wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 6:48 pm

Bottom Text wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 6:45 pm

Timsup2gettinserious wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 6:40 pm

Bottom Text wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 6:36 pm trans rights is my top town

What do you think about Alison and Nutella then? :3 They think you two are NOT TvT.

I didn't read that or really care. They seem fine from my skimming

why didnt you care

Followed by (admittedly with a couple posts between):

Akemi Hazelnut wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 6:53 pm alison can't stop me yolo

[VOTE: bottom text] aubergine

Then I ask you what you thought about Bottom Text lying to me here:

Timsup2gettinserious wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 6:55 pm Hmm. Nutella, what do you make of Bottom Text admitting that they were lying to me?

And you follow up with:

Akemi Hazelnut wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 7:04 pm

Timsup2gettinserious wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 6:55 pm Hmm. Nutella, what do you make of Bottom Text admitting that they were lying to me?

don't love it. they don't seem interested in solving me and it smells of tmi / accepting that i'll just be obvtown and not worth fighting

bottom text made a series of scummy posts around that time, i dont remember you having anything to do with it?

I'll let nutella answer this one since these are her posts

I made it pretty clear why I (Alison) voted BT initially

Their contributions to the game before the "excuse for contributing nothing" post:

- Asking who to bully, and then saying they're down to bully Tim. Asserts later that there's no reasoning behind the bullying.
- Asking "why" in response to TSPIC voting them.
- TSPIC asks if they have any thoughts, they say they don't really have any.
- H&V accuses them of having a scum post, they say "nah" and leave it at that.

That's literally it. I don't care how deep you want to read into the line about bullying Tim, it's not contributing in my book and it certainly doesn't justify a "welp, I have nothing. Peace!" post.

Re: the third post not being scummy because Made is a similar player to you and you always do these things as town, sure, but I'm not sure how you expect me to make that read or why you're upset that I didn't reach the same conclusion on it.

I think the posts you have an issue with in #2779 border on the nitpicky. Like come on. First one was clearly a joke about a reasoning that everyone in this game except Gavial knows is bad. Nobody is seriously going to undermine your solving or disbelieve your scumreads based on it. I have no idea what you dislike about the second one.

Timsup2gettinserious wrote: ↑Fri May 07, 2021 10:24 pm Also, just in case people don't notice, both Alison AND Nutella were part of the push on me at different points. Don't let them tell you otherwise.

I'm going to be perfectly honest with you I have no memory at all of making that push on you. I might have suspected you as an early first post read or reaction test and then dropped it when I got bigger fish to fry. At any rate once the push on TAT started coalescing I was happy to give you a pass (and my interactions with you in that period were mostly just agreeing/leaving you alone), and once Syn started really pushing on TAT I noticed that conviction and started actively townreading your slot.

Mana wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 7:41 pm Wait, we have two votes? tf?

Mana wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 7:55 pm

Akemi Hazelnut wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 7:54 pm

Mana wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 7:52 pm but like actually tho, low volume might just mean low engagement. I don't have anything to say so i'm not saying anything of consequence. that's kinda how that works

you got reads? anything

looking for a scapegoat i found a wolf. falconknow's iso is awful, they're prob just bad
[VOTE: Falconknows] aubergine

Mana wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 8:00 pm I bias towards thinking most day 1 death matches are t/t so w/o reading it closely, i think transrights and bottom text are probably town. Bouncing off of that, wagonomics says I should give a closer look at poop to see if that's a wolf trying to push a civvie death match, so i'mma do that really quick

These were the three posts that pinged me about Mana's entrance.

The first post is performative and meaningless. It's like they're giving off this affronted "what the hell is going on, how dare you vote us when we have been so townie" post that feels super fake to me. It's page 16, you have two votes, there was zero need for this post.

The second post is a pre-emptive excuse for contributing nothing. I find it hard to believe that a townie has literal nothing to say at that point in time, but even if that was the case I'd expect some attempt to try to force their way into the game or get a lead. "I don't have anything, sorry, shrug, I'm out" is not a townie mindset.

Third post has extremely sketchy wording ("looking for a scapegoat") and I'm not convinced their FK push was based on anything at all, I thought the entrance was fine, even townie, and I have not seen anything from Mana that refutes that. They're just drive by dropping a spicy read with no followup.

Fourth post is a super premature read. They're calling TR/BT both villagers without reading the interaction closely, and going as far as to suspect Poop for trying to push a V/V thunderdome. There doesn't seem to be anything connecting premise to conclusion or any way they could have of getting from A to B other than TMI, other than a throwaway line about being biased towards assuming early thunderdomes are V/V shoehorned in.

Bottom Text wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 7:22 pm

Akemi Hazelnut wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 7:21 pm

Bottom Text wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 7:20 pm my janitorial duties

holy SHIT is that a fucking SCUMSLIP

when the n1 flip comes up cleaned dont look at me pls

I was going back to quote some Mana posts from D1 to explain why I scumread them and found this gem

Timsup2gettinserious wrote: ↑Fri May 07, 2021 10:17 pm Akemi's early D1 push on me P1:

Poop Explosions wrote: ↑Mon May 03, 2021 7:33 pm

Akemi Hazelnut wrote: ↑Mon May 03, 2021 7:32 pm

Poop Explosions wrote: ↑Mon May 03, 2021 7:28 pm [VOTE: Timsup2gettinserious] aubergine

Points to whoever tells me why

theyre dissonant and hate that another hydra is being scumread for dissonance

Eerily specific and wrong

Akemi Hazelnut wrote: ↑Mon May 03, 2021 7:34 pm [VOTE: timsup2gettinserious] aubergine

well i like my reasoning anyway

that was me (nut) and i think before alison got here

got to a townread on you by like halfway through d1 iirc

Timsup2gettinserious wrote: ↑Fri May 07, 2021 10:17 pm Akemi's early D1 push on me P1:

Poop Explosions wrote: ↑Mon May 03, 2021 7:33 pm

Akemi Hazelnut wrote: ↑Mon May 03, 2021 7:32 pm

Poop Explosions wrote: ↑Mon May 03, 2021 7:28 pm [VOTE: Timsup2gettinserious] aubergine

Points to whoever tells me why

theyre dissonant and hate that another hydra is being scumread for dissonance

Eerily specific and wrong

Akemi Hazelnut wrote: ↑Mon May 03, 2021 7:34 pm [VOTE: timsup2gettinserious] aubergine

well i like my reasoning anyway

I wasn't a part of this so you'll have to ask nutella

Timsup2gettinserious wrote: ↑Fri May 07, 2021 8:30 pm I'm starting to get concerned about the Akemi hydra. Them calling Mana scummy was just the latest thing that I've seen that kinda made me nervous.

When Both Nutella and Alison initially pushed on me early D1, I didn't really it was AI at the time, even if it was a little opportunistic. I think worse of it now that they've been calling me extremely towny. I don't understand the progression they made on our slot.

Also, there was the sudden vote on Bottom Text after Bottom Text admitted they were lying to me when I was questioned them.

And then, when I outed that H&V loverized us, it seemed like they were quick to jump on H&V.

I don't think they're obvtown at the moment. Counterpoint of course is that H&V seemed to think they were likely to get NKed N1?

I dunno.

I think you might be mixing us up with someone else or misremembering events, because a lot of the stuff you're describing in this post didn't happen.

- AFAIK my slot never pushed on yours. We spoke briefly about playstyle stuff regarding you in hydra chat early on but the conclusion was a big shrug both ways. I saw you were pushing basically the exact same worldview I was and was happy to give you a day pass for it: later on I started townreading you more and more actively as I saw you were putting in a bunch of work to solve, and the conviction Syn had on Tim was very much against his UTR scum meta.

- The vote on Bottom Text was based on trans rights' pseudo-CC, not because Bottom Text lied:

Akemi Hazelnut wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 10:33 pm Anyway I'm just going to vote BT since trans rights has claimed that she doesn't believe her role, Poop's and BT's can coexist.

[VOTE: Bottom Text] aubergine

And yes I was quick to jump on H&V because it was an absurdly anti-town move to loverize you.

Timsup2gettinserious wrote: ↑Fri May 07, 2021 8:24 pm

Akemi Hazelnut wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 8:39 pm I think trans rights overthinking Esooa's post this deeply is probably villagery

Also Mana is an obvious wolf

Okay, so, it looks like this read on Mana was given sometime after the last post I quoted from Mana, but before the next one they made?

Why did you call Mana an obvious wolf at this point? Everything in their ISO up to this point (aside from the stuff that I -just- resolved to be likely towny) seems extremely towny to me. There wasn't any mech stuff surrounding Mana at this point.

Have you read their EOD

TAT would never admit to being scum to a potential medium, that makes no sense. They either clam up and say nothing or they anti spew if they are wolf. If they are town they most likely claim their role + legacy, and to a more unlikely extent clam up.

trans rights wrote: ↑Fri May 07, 2021 7:03 pm

Akemi Hazelnut wrote: ↑Fri May 07, 2021 7:00 pm what do you mean about jpic's play fitting a wolf archetype?

i talked about this in my d1 post going over their iso

basically a lot of his thoughts seemed like the type of fakeable thoughts on posts you'd give as a wolf. none of his reads particularly struck me as anything that really goes beyond the surface level. or to maybe be slightly more clear, i think a lot of the reads he gave on d1 are just kinda observations anyone could make regardless of alignment that could easily pocket the type of player that sees a mindmeld and townreads it blindly.

mm maybe. I mostly just get a sense that his thoughts have been organic/genuine but it's been gradual, wasn't as strong on d1

sure, but it's a concrete detail with a similar weight in my mind

what do you mean about jpic's play fitting a wolf archetype?

trans rights wrote: ↑Fri May 07, 2021 6:58 pm

Akemi Hazelnut wrote: ↑Fri May 07, 2021 6:56 pm ftr i have a fairly confident townread on tspic at this point (and alison has them as town from mech/wagons as well)

i townread both of them correctly in vienna and they've gotten to that level in their posting imo

what is their favorable mech?

not as much a direct mech thing but i think alison's reasoning was the reaction to toopy's claim (noting that tim's response looked real etc)

mightve been something else too idk

ftr i have a fairly confident townread on tspic at this point (and alison has them as town from mech/wagons as well)

i townread both of them correctly in vienna and they've gotten to that level in their posting imo

mech is boring just vote for wolfy ppl lol

Bottom Text wrote: ↑Fri May 07, 2021 4:35 pm but obviously we didnt use it on walrus otherwise mana would have gotten deaded

Why would a wolf roleblocker not block Walrus?

Anyway in case it isn't clear I did not block Mana.

trans rights wrote: ↑Fri May 07, 2021 4:31 pm

Akemi Hazelnut wrote: ↑Fri May 07, 2021 4:30 pm Is it mech optimal to just ask everyone to claim whether or not they blocked Mana?

If nobody admits to it, then Mana is proven a liar since a wolf roleblocker would have targeted Walrus.

If Mana is a wolf and making up being blocked, they basically have to ask a teammate to claim to block them, which commits them to a claim early and potentially outs both if someone else can disprove the claim.

the only flaw is if a wolf roleblocked mana

but if the wolves have a roleblocker i dont think they ever roleblock v!mana anyways so i'm okay with this

I don't think a wolf roleblocker would ever roleblock town Mana. Like Walrus is right there.

Alison wrote: ↑Fri May 07, 2021 4:31 pm

trans rights wrote: ↑Fri May 07, 2021 4:27 pm their "self-pres vote" literally caused them to accrue votes though. it might just be a twtbaw situation iyam. fwiw mist mostly has this read, not me. mana could still be a wolf afaik.

This is a silly read, obviously they didn't intend for their self-pres to make them wagoned. Also TWTBAW isn't real and people should stop parroting it.

omg I switched browser tabs by mistake again

Is it mech optimal to just ask everyone to claim whether or not they blocked Mana?

If nobody admits to it, then Mana is proven a liar since a wolf roleblocker would have targeted Walrus.

If Mana is a wolf and making up being blocked, they basically have to ask a teammate to claim to block them, which commits them to a claim early and potentially outs both if someone else can disprove the claim.

Julinook wrote: ↑Fri May 07, 2021 2:03 pm Without knowing their target or yours i wouldn't push it


I'm very skeptical they're all three town. Its...not impossible, bit given what I'm aware of setup wise, i don't find it likely.

@Bottom Text This is what I meant by nook hinting at having setup info that tr/poop/bt claims can't coexist (and between the three I trust tr and poop significantly more)

TonyStarkPlaysItCool wrote: ↑Fri May 07, 2021 2:41 pm It just seems... anticlimatic.

This doesn't seem like a good reason to clear Mana.

FalconKnows wrote: ↑Fri May 07, 2021 2:40 pm Between H&V and Bottom Text who is more wolfy?

TR and julinook have both hinted that they have mech info that BT's claim isn't believable and H&V have at least towntold today so probably BT.

TonyStarkPlaysItCool wrote: ↑Fri May 07, 2021 2:38 pm

Akemi Hazelnut wrote: ↑Fri May 07, 2021 2:36 pm

TonyStarkPlaysItCool wrote: ↑Fri May 07, 2021 2:13 pm

Bottom Text wrote: ↑Fri May 07, 2021 2:09 pm

TonyStarkPlaysItCool wrote: ↑Fri May 07, 2021 2:08 pm What mafia claims watcher.

a mafia watcher

Yeah, but my point is it’s traditionally a pro-town role and I think if they were a mafia watcher they wouldn’t claim their ability failed. I think they would make up something that seems relatively safe. I also have other reasons to believe it as well which I don’t want to divulge atm

Why can't they just be a completely different mafia role that is just making the Watcher thing up

If the goal was to make up the watcher claim, I doubt they would say their ability failed.

Why not? If they say "I watched so and so, and they were not visited", all it takes is someone going "that's a lie, I visited them" and they're outed. Similarly if a tracker was on them they can disprove the claim. Claiming to be roleblocked is safe because it stops them from inadvertently claiming something impossible.

TonyStarkPlaysItCool wrote: ↑Fri May 07, 2021 2:13 pm

Bottom Text wrote: ↑Fri May 07, 2021 2:09 pm

TonyStarkPlaysItCool wrote: ↑Fri May 07, 2021 2:08 pm What mafia claims watcher.

a mafia watcher

Yeah, but my point is it’s traditionally a pro-town role and I think if they were a mafia watcher they wouldn’t claim their ability failed. I think they would make up something that seems relatively safe. I also have other reasons to believe it as well which I don’t want to divulge atm

Why can't they just be a completely different mafia role that is just making the Watcher thing up

Tr > poop > bt

H&V is confirmed loverizer, where are you getting JOAT from?