The Syndicate

[VOTE: Creature] aubergine

I think this is only fair tbh.

We should kill Creature today then.

Great.

Syn wrote: ↑Sun Jun 13, 2021 1:16 am
Marmot wrote: ↑Sun Jun 13, 2021 1:09 am @Kami I do realize that Deli later dropped the attempt to yeet Mac, but I believe it was a product of it not sticking, not because it was a teammate that Deli didn't actually want yeeted. Those quotes I pulled do look like attempts to push pressure on him earlier in the day. If the two were teammates, I think Mac would have encouraged them to keep pushing and that he would have no trouble with the pressure (I wolfed with Mac in a game recently, and learned as much from him).

Syn wrote: ↑Wed Jun 09, 2021 2:50 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Jun 09, 2021 2:44 pm Seth possible tmi, likely works as third partner in all worlds imo
interesting

I asked Deli how many games they've played with Mac because they've pushed him hard and now put him as your partner if we, town, are being railroaded, implying excellent wolf manipulation play, and specifically slotting in Mac for that

when they said no games, I immediately thought "the team is deli/marmot/gavial"

Deli wrote: ↑Wed Jun 09, 2021 2:55 pm
Syn wrote: ↑Wed Jun 09, 2021 2:50 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Jun 09, 2021 2:44 pm Seth possible tmi, likely works as third partner in all worlds imo
interesting

I asked Deli how many games they've played with Mac because they've pushed him hard and now put him as your partner if we, town, are being railroaded, implying excellent wolf manipulation play, and specifically slotting in Mac for that

when they said no games, I immediately thought "the team is deli/marmot/gavial"
I've pushed mac hard because he is wolfy af, but when someone's avatar is "mafia god" and everyone who has played with them is afraid to push them, yeah I feel like that's a person who could open wolf and get away with it

It isn't me, and I'm fairly certain Marmot is village. You saying gavial makes me clear them.

"You saying gavial makes me clear them."

[VOTE: Gavial] aubergine

I am actually feeling more inclined to vote Gavial than in the mech difference check currently.

Gavial wrote: ↑Sun Jun 13, 2021 1:52 am @Syn
@Kami
Have either of you even voted Marmot?
How about you vote Creature instead!

Stuff like this looks like blatant bussing honestly.

Currently leaning Gavial/Creature being the wolves in each difference check.

Syn wrote: ↑Sun Jun 13, 2021 1:35 am gavial's d3 is so bad it has to be town tbh

I thought the same about his D1 originally.

Maybe it's just Gavial and their early posting was bad because they're a wolf and not just because they were trying too hard lol.

Catching up. Would Marmot (or somebody else?) please link a recent Marmot wolf game? I'm interested in his wolf range.

Syn wrote: ↑Sat Jun 12, 2021 12:11 pm
Wiml wrote: ↑Sat Jun 12, 2021 9:24 am Oh I didn't realise that the hammer meant SoD was earlier too.

So myself and Esooa confirmed towns. Wolves have no strongman any more so Esooa can still get a save.
Yes they do.

I think it's D4 and the title wasn't changed or am I an idiot?

Esooa wrote: ↑Sat Jun 12, 2021 9:28 am Mac is fucking bent out of his mind with these numbers or am I losing mine?

I believe that Mac has calculated with 10 players and not 8.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Jun 12, 2021 9:26 am
Wiml wrote: ↑Sat Jun 12, 2021 9:24 am Oh I didn't realise that the hammer meant SoD was earlier too.

So myself and Esooa confirmed towns. Wolves have no strongman any more so Esooa can still get a save.
Syn and I are confirmed from Deli's flip. It should be exceedingly obvious.

@Urist don't count my post nudging you about the poll towards my post limit or I'll have a tantrum.

I meant mech confirmed but I agree that you're both town, both from spew and individually.

So pretty much it's just vital we hit right within the difference check?

Oh I didn't realise that the hammer meant SoD was earlier too.

So myself and Esooa confirmed towns. Wolves have no strongman any more so Esooa can still get a save.

I'm going to push for voting sleep today tbh, since the wolves get another kill if we don't anyway and there really seems to be no downside.

Oops I accidentally double posted while trying to correct a typo.

Esooa wrote: ↑Thu Jun 10, 2021 11:41 pm

I did the thing.

I very, very much doubt Kami/Marmot are wolves together. I read wolf games from both of them and their ISO's look unpartnered from both perspectives.

I think Deli is the wolf between them/Nanook and she has few partners. It's possible I'm misclearing someone but I'm not sure. Considering they probably flip mafia today I will explain these

Deli's interactions:

Deli used her fakeclaim JK to push/scum read mac. This fact as well as their push reads unpartnered.

Deli can not exist with Nanook as the claims are

Deli has not talked with Gavial almost at all, and their comments about him are meh with some weird ones

Deli has no talked with Creature almost at all, and their comments about him are meh.

Deli tries very much to pocket Wiml/etc SoD1 and other times.

I believe Deli isn't with Kami. Deli and Kami both have interacted with eachother a decent amount, including Kami shielding Deli in a way she didn't shield any partners I saw in her wolf games (I.E. most recent wolf game where she distanced with one up to mid-day 1 then started pushing townies EoD, while mostly neglecting/null reading the second). However do to how few partners I have paired with Deli I'm not clearing Kami because I don't want to misclear

Deli pushes Syn a lot, calls him anti-town if town, etc, generally a very strong push day 2 that I don't see them doing to a partner.

Deli and Marmot both have unpartnered interactions. Deli weirdly strongly town reads Marmot day 1; Marmot day 2 cases/pushes Deli out of mostly no where; etc. I believe reasonably strongly they're not partners

I am decently confident in the Deli/Marmot unassociated read, and would almost always kill the 3 in orange before Marmot, btw.

I can answer questions about the rest as needed.

If Nanook is a wolf, the most likely world (by a decent margin) is Nanook/Macdougal/Syn. I find this unlikely mostly because I think Macdougal has been towny, while Deli on re-read has been wolfy.

Lol, if my wolf partner in the PoE claims parity cop and is about to get the town jailkeeper miselimned then I'm not enough of a monster to tell everyone to vote sleep and then turbo Nanook.

But yeah it's notable that Deli has partner equity with so few people there (and I'm agreeing with your conclusion on them in particular).

Esooa wrote: ↑Thu Jun 10, 2021 11:41 pm

I did the thing.

I very, very much doubt Kami/Marmot are wolves together. I read wolf games from both of them and their ISO's look unpartnered from both perspectives.

I think Deli is the wolf between them/Nanook and she has few partners. It's possible I'm misclearing someone but I'm not sure. Considering they probably flip mafia today I will explain these

Deli's interactions:

Deli used her fakeclaim JK to push/scum read mac. This fact as well as their push reads unpartnered.

Deli can not exist with Nanook as the claims are

Deli has not talked with Gavial almost at all, and their comments about him are meh with some weird ones

Deli has no talked with Creature almost at all, and their comments about him are meh.

Deli tries very much to pocket Wiml/etc SoD1 and other times.

I believe Deli isn't with Kami. Deli and Kami both have interacted with eachother a decent amount, including Kami shielding Deli in a way she didn't shield any partners I saw in her wolf games (I.E. most recent wolf game where she distanced with one up to mid-day 1 then started pushing townies EoD, while mostly neglecting/null reading the second). However do to how few partners I have paired with Deli I'm not clearing Kami because I don't want to misclear

Deli pushes Syn a lot, calls him anti-town if town, etc, generally a very strong push day 2 that I don't see them doing to a partner.

Deli and Marmot both have unpartnered interactions. Deli weirdly strongly town reads Marmot day 1; Marmot day 2 cases/pushes Deli out of mostly no where; etc. I believe reasonably strongly they're not partners

I am decently confident in the Deli/Marmot unassociated read, and would almost always kill the 3 in orange before Marmot, btw.

I can answer questions about the rest as needed.

If Nanook is a wolf, the most likely world (by a decent margin) is Nanook/Macdougal/Syn. I find this unlikely mostly because I think Macdougal has been towny, while Deli on re-read has been wolfy.

Lol, if my wolf partner in the PoE claims parity cop and is about to get the town jailkeeper miselimned then I'm not enough of a monster to tell everyone to vote sleep and then turbo Nanook.

But yeah it's notable that Deli has poor partner equity with so few people there (and I'm agreeing with your conclusion on them in particular).

Oh and thanks for the links Deli!

Actually I forgot myself but wolves have a rolestopper as one of their abilities.

So Nook not getting jailkept doesn't condemn Deli (although I think I go Deli over Esooa always anyway).

Wiml wrote: ↑Thu Jun 10, 2021 11:15 am @Deli would you link me a recent wolf game when you have the time please?

Preferably one you think you played well in.

@Deli would you link me a recent wolf game when you have the time please?

Esooa wrote: ↑Thu Jun 10, 2021 10:59 am
Wiml wrote: ↑Thu Jun 10, 2021 10:41 am I think sleep into voting Nanook is the play tbh.

A third Nanook peek pretty much guarantees which of Creature and Marm is a wolf if he flips town.
I'd agree but it's not just nook. We dome nook+his red peek and vote between them imo.

I think that's the best play.

Yeah I can get behind that.

I think sleep into voting Nanook is the play tbh.

A third Nanook peek pretty much guarantees which of Creature and Marm is a wolf if he flips town.

We don't lose if it's Esooa. I don't think it is Esooa but my mech strategy should allocate for that world too.

But mechanically I think I can guarantee us 2 wolves in 3 days worst case and am trying to get it smoothed out.

I'm working on a strategy but it involves sleeping then turboing Nanook tbh.

I was going to say: "not sure on the merits of this but wi try to map it out".

Sleep looking like the best mech strat though.

[VOTE: Sleep] aubergine

Wiml wrote: ↑Thu Jun 10, 2021 5:18 am Also if we sleep, Deli can attempt to roleblock another PR.

Also if we sleep, Deli can attempt to roleblock another PR.

Wiml wrote: ↑Thu Jun 10, 2021 4:53 am And if the team is just Deli/Marm then they gain nothing because the wolves get an additional kill to move the game back to even numbers tomorrow(?) anyway.

*back to odd numbers

And if the team is just Deli/Marm then they gain nothing because the wolves get an additional kill to move the game back to even numbers tomorrow(?) anyway.

Sleeping is lame but either Nook dies and we suddenly have two direct ccs or Nook lives and we have one direct cc between Nook and one of Marm/Creature (and then probably either Deli or Esooa as a result).

Sleep might be the better option? Given that either Nook has to die or he has to get a peek that probably forces him into a thunderdome with either Creature or Marm.

Deli's claim is the weakest but I think they're towny still tbh.

Also given the fact that if we don't sleep wolves get two kills to compensate anyway on later nights.

There's probably also a merit to making Nook self check and either be the nightkill or force himself into a direct 1-1 with either Marm or Creature (but I don't think this is worth it?).

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Jun 10, 2021 3:29 am
Wiml wrote: ↑Thu Jun 10, 2021 3:22 am
Esooa wrote: ↑Wed Jun 09, 2021 10:02 pm
hollowkatt wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 11:57 am
Marmot wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 11:57 am
hollowkatt wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 11:53 am
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 11:43 am I mean they're an uncced jk claim its not great to kill them today lol

Unless you're gonna cc you should probably move
what if I were to tell you I don't believe the claim

I'd disagree with you until you provide a reason.
the reason is I think deli is lying
This isn't a guarantee, but HK gets really mad at people for lying about stuff as town. If he had mech info (I.E. would KNOW Deli is lying) I think he would say something different than "I think" Deli is lying
This is actually a good catch and I can +1 this.

There's the possibility that HK was less prone to believing Deli because he was a PR but no solid evidence?

I was asking myself "does wolf-Deli fake a roleblock on a townsperson not knowing their role?"...

But then I realised that Mac was roleblocked and couldn't cc Deli if he were a PR. If that's true, the fact that Deli chose to claim to have targeted the only player who couldn't counterclaim when claiming under pressure makes their claim a lot weaker.
Expand on the "mac was roleblocked and couldn't cc" idea for me

Well in a wolf-Deli world, Deli needs to pick a target. If their target was a power role (ie. Not roleblocked) then Deli would get immediately called out and killed for it.

Deli in this world *probably* doesn't want to say they roleblocked a partner because whoever they say they roleblocked here probably goes under scrutiny after Deli flips. I mean it's certainly an option but I don't think it's the option that Deli would take here as a wolf anyway.

So Mac was the absolute safest target Deli could have picked because Mac, being post capped at the time of the claim unless my chronology is horribly off, couldn't have turned around and said "Deli is lying, I wasn't roleblocked" for at least one more cycle.

It's not a huge huge thing but Deli conveniently picking the postcapped player feels like that time Marl claimed masons with Esooa to save himself for another Day phase after Esooa said she wouldn't be back before EoD.

Esooa wrote: ↑Wed Jun 09, 2021 10:02 pm
hollowkatt wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 11:57 am
Marmot wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 11:57 am
hollowkatt wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 11:53 am
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 11:43 am I mean they're an uncced jk claim its not great to kill them today lol

Unless you're gonna cc you should probably move
what if I were to tell you I don't believe the claim

I'd disagree with you until you provide a reason.
the reason is I think deli is lying
This isn't a guarantee, but HK gets really mad at people for lying about stuff as town. If he had mech info (I.E. would KNOW Deli is lying) I think he would say something different than "I think" Deli is lying

This is actually a good catch and I can +1 this.

There's the possibility that HK was less prone to believing Deli because he was a PR but no solid evidence?

I was asking myself "does wolf-Deli fake a roleblock on a townsperson not knowing their role?"...

But then I realised that Mac was roleblocked and couldn't cc Deli if he were a PR. If that's true, the fact that Deli chose to claim to have targeted the only player who couldn't counterclaim when claiming under pressure makes their claim a lot weaker.

Gavial wrote: ↑Wed Jun 09, 2021 8:34 pm Like if Doc and JK Outs.
Tracker Flips.
I wonder what the fuckin unused PR is!!!???
Hmmmmmm.
Maybe fuckin Cop.
So then you claim Cop and claim 2 Townies have different alignments to set up ML’s for the win.
Also partner wise your most likely partners would be Syn and Mac so it would make sense you’d play it like this in that world.

I considered this too but wolves more likely than not knew the missing PR even before Esooa claimed.

Yeah I think I'm currently in support of Deli going over, I'm not voting because I don't want a hammer yet.

Fwiw Esooa/Creature actually wolfed together recently on a game on MU.

Wiml wrote: ↑Wed Jun 09, 2021 6:10 pm Like, I don't think wolf-Nook sees a town-Esooa miselim as plausible here tbh.

So by this logic I would have expected Nook or a partner to have pushed towards the Marmot/Creature pairing instead if both were town and Nanook a wolf.

Although that's probably a shaky conclusion, it's still pretty notable I think.

Like, I don't think wolf-Nook sees a town-Esooa miselim as plausible here tbh.

Wolf-Nook's best plan wrt his claim would be to push for miselims in the (presumably both towns in this world) pool of Marmot/Creature.

Nobody has really pushed for that besides Mac and (very loosely) myself mentioning it. Nook even somewhat steered away that train of thought from me.

The fact that this is the case probably suggests that there's a wolf in the pairing even if Nook is lying tbh.

I haven't read Esooa's ISO recently but if wolf-Esooa goes out of her way to defend town-me from (presumably) town-Mac on D1 then claims Doc D2 with a save on me when I'm under pressure (and in a tracker game too) then I'm completely missing what she's attempting to do here.

Let's assume wolves would have known doctor was the missing role in this case. Why not save the claim for the least townread wolf instead of giving it to Esooa to claim when she's relatively deep? What benefit dies she have from being the first PR claim and so early that it becomes obvious when she's alive, particularly in a strongman setup?

Just airing some thoughts here.

Oh nvm I saw the pairings are switched.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Jun 09, 2021 5:56 pm I'm tempted to just say the game is easy and it's just deli/Marmot or creature/esooa, kinda feels that simple to me rn

Fypov is it possible to be anything else?

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Jun 09, 2021 2:41 pm
Wiml wrote: ↑Wed Jun 09, 2021 2:13 pm I was starting to tinfoil Deli pre-claim. Their claim makes sense from a wolf perspective to self pres and to discredit me I suppose? Hk's death points to Deli being a wolf too.

I am shocked if Esooa is wolfing tbh.

After my initial reaction that he wouldn't lie, I need to assess the merits of a Nook fake claim here (he's a PoE slot and getting two miselims before dying is probably a good trade). But if Nook is a wolf candidate we never chop him today so he can get another peek.

Sorry if ly thoughts are scattered, I'm really exhausted right now and will try to contribute better shortly.
I'm not getting another peek lol I always die tonight

Yeah I didn't realise about the strongman.

There are ways we can avoid you dying tonight if town (chopping in Marm/Creature/other PoE slot and having the wolves possibly not take the risk in a direct cc battle) but I'm not convinced that's the play.

Creature wrote: ↑Wed Jun 09, 2021 2:22 pm
Wiml wrote: ↑Wed Jun 09, 2021 2:20 pm Fwiw also, if Esooa was a wolf then Mac would probably be the N1K.
aka Deli's JK target N1?

Yeah.

Fwiw I'm usually not bad at reading Esooa so if her alignment is in doubt I can go over her ISO again and check some stuff out.

Fwiw also, if Esooa was a wolf then Mac would probably be the N1K.

Creature wrote: ↑Wed Jun 09, 2021 1:04 pm Can we agree Esooa is likely town here?

If yes, then I think it may be more optimal for us to always lynch Deli here. If Deli flips jailkeeper then we almost always lynch NANOOK the next day. If Deli flips mafia then we can solve Marmot/me the next day.

I think she enjoys wolfing too much than to waste a wolf game on a D2 doc claim tbh.

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