The Syndicate

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:01 pm I think that I can reduce my tinfoil irt the whole "ree gamestate spews deepwolves" thing simply by virtue of;

a) Axe might just be mafia tbh. Which would mean Hally has just been really townie and gud.
b) The mafia have really only had the opportunity to kill one single town without it being mapped out before them.

Ok, so you're just mafia.

I'm incredibly tired. I also think Nanook is mafia.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:58 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:57 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:56 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:52 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:52 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:50 pm yes because the wolf team that's left haven't spewed themselves distanced, good joke

so your solve is that i’m a 500 posting wolf who has been hard bussing my teammate since the beginning of the game?

are you trolling?

He's not trolling, he's mafia.

I struggle to understand how you could be of the view I am mafia given the amount of energy I have consumed shielding you. What is my agenda here? To make the game more difficult for myself and nearly get myself lynched tying myself in knots to townread you, for science?

I don't know, I haven't read up, so I don't know any of your stances.

You're telling me you're unaware that I've been townreading you a ton this game and shielding you?

Correct.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:57 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:56 pm scene from wolfchat

mac: yo, you should pretend to derp about wilgy flipping BP and i’ll clear you off it
axe: nobody will ever buy that lol
mac: no dude just trust me
axe: alright if you insist, and i’ll try to spew you clear on my way down

I'd rather not be mocked please. I am not really up for it.

Clearly if that was our plan, it would have been my idea.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:56 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:52 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:52 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:50 pm yes because the wolf team that's left haven't spewed themselves distanced, good joke

so your solve is that i’m a 500 posting wolf who has been hard bussing my teammate since the beginning of the game?

are you trolling?

He's not trolling, he's mafia.

I struggle to understand how you could be of the view I am mafia given the amount of energy I have consumed shielding you. What is my agenda here? To make the game more difficult for myself and nearly get myself lynched tying myself in knots to townread you, for science?

I don't know, I haven't read up, so I don't know any of your stances.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:54 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:52 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:52 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:50 pm yes because the wolf team that's left haven't spewed themselves distanced, good joke

so your solve is that i’m a 500 posting wolf who has been hard bussing my teammate since the beginning of the game?

are you trolling?

He's not trolling, he's mafia.

No, I am not mafia.

Sounds like something a wolf would say.

Hally wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:52 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:50 pm yes because the wolf team that's left haven't spewed themselves distanced, good joke

so your solve is that i’m a 500 posting wolf who has been hard bussing my teammate since the beginning of the game?

are you trolling?

He's not trolling, he's mafia.

Nanook / Mac final answer.

I'm so ashamed of my dumbtell that I won't even argue it's validity.

LOL

Actually, no better today.

I think it goes without saying we should solve Nanook / DrWilgy. We should have solved that Yesterday

I don't think Nanook is clear

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 6:53 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Mar 03, 2022 6:51 pm I am out playing tennis and will be around later.

First concern: NAA had Mac in a strong difference check with Nanook, and stayed on the Dizzy wagon after the Nanook/Wilgy BP business.

Hmmm. @NotAnAxehole explanation perchance?

My technical analysis was correct, my reads were wrong... Which suggests that I need to focus more on my mech reads than my content reads.

@JaggedJimmyJay I was considering moving EoD, but claims came out too late in the day for me to think about how to handle them

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:58 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:57 pm i really don’t know what’s going on

both mafia fake claimed BP in a game they know there isn't one

Legitimately a good play

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:55 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:53 pm can't stand the fps claims

And I can't stand mechanical incompetence, yet here we fucking are

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:54 pm

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:53 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:52 pmdizzy pushing everywhere he can showing he's actually content with whatever even foiling you and me

Be quiet.

don't be rude...

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:53 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:52 pmdizzy pushing everywhere he can showing he's actually content with whatever even foiling you and me

Be quiet.

Wilgy is like, so obviously town... Unless I'm wrong.

If there's a doctor, watcher, tracker, within the PoE they should probably claim now. Outside of the PoE can claim tomorrow.

If it's not a PR claim, I think I'm locking my vote in.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:09 pm I'll be going soon and we can't chop me so let's find a new place for our votes, chaps.

Is this a beloved princess claim?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:06 pm I don’t think Wilgy is in his “town meta” and consider him a very high variance player. I think MR is more likely mafia than Wilgy though.

This may be true, I haven't actually reviewed a large sample of play - but by my metric (which is not intuitive), he seems pretty polarized.

Right, so PoE should look to solve within the PoE rather than whatever it is they're doing.

Hally failing to find Wilgy is towny (Also I could be wrong).

PoE flailing on just about any target possible and failing to see the growing consensus makes me think my PoE of 4 is correct.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 4:10 pm Wilgy's vote is certainly spooky.

Counterargument: Wilgy is town.

But I can count in thread and then run a simple exponential in excel no problem without that.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 2:41 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 2:29 pm Also, @JaggedJimmyJay That's why I don't have MR & Dizzy as mafia together.

Are you keeping a spreadsheet to track how frequently Mac responds to each player in the game?

I have not shoved this game's data into a spreadsheet.

Based on a Mac read.

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 2:38 pm what does that post even mean lol

It means I'm 99% sure that C4, Dizzy, MR contain 1 or fewer mafia.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 2:34 pm Oh we're using maths to solve are we.

Fun.

I always use math to solve.

Also, @JaggedJimmyJay That's why I don't have MR & Dizzy as mafia together.

@JaggedJimmyJay I'm going to vaguely explain why Mac is mafia without giving away the read entirely.

Let's assume that Mac is mafia, then we can assume that there is a certain agenda to his posts. I'm not going to guess too much as to how this would work.

Now, let's assume that Mac is town... Well then we can assume that he is playing without an agenda, which should roughly demonstrate a random distribution as to the alignment of people he's communicating with.

The random distribution would not necessarily be the game!rand distribution, but leaning towards mac!reads rand distribution. I'm going to assume (I've tested this with a couple games) that Mac's gut / instinctive replies are above the game rand, and he replies to mafia about 30% of the time as town.

Now, if we take this on some of his runs of posting, we can determine that there is about mechanically a 1% chance that Mac, Hally, JJJ, NAA, Nanook, DrWilgy are all town.

I know my alignment, and I have Hally, JJJ as lock town.

I think DrWilgy is firmly within town meta... If you disagree here, this is where I can be wrong.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 10:45 am

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 10:40 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:00 am I feel like the game is solved. If anyone wants to claw me back down from the clouds, please do. But just know that right now at 4:00 AM that’s how I feel.

I've felt like the game is solved for a while now.

You'd suggested there's a difference check between Dizzy and MR. How do you feel about them as mafia teammates?

I think it's incredibly unlikely that Mac & Nanook are the same alignment as stated before.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:00 am I feel like the game is solved. If anyone wants to claw me back down from the clouds, please do. But just know that right now at 4:00 AM that’s how I feel.

I've felt like the game is solved for a while now.

Hally wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 9:10 pm NAA, thoughts on nook rn?

I can simplify that to thoughts rn, and the answer is still no.

I'm a sloth... I also don't have thoughts until the moment they pop into brain, and then they're gone. Lost to the dark void of space.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 8:09 pm To anyone who cares to answer:

Who's the most likely player to flip mafia that is not contained in the following set: [Nanook, MR, Wilgy]?

Mac... No, Dizzy... Err... One of those things.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 7:31 pm @NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME, NAA has made 99 posts. Must be something readable in there, eh?

I think you have a really solid read on me once I get to the ~100 post mark and are just afraid to admit it because it always feels like I'm pulling some sort of shenanigans.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 6:00 pm NAA having trash reads, but it's NAI probably.

This is not a towny take.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 5:27 pm Like I mostly am trying to get a read on NAA in return by understanding him. I don't intend to defend myself point by point or anything.

But like... Jay. Wtf.

This folks, is why you should never answer questions unless you're at risk of dying.



I don't want you to read me.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 4:14 pm And what's your reasoning for me being scummy?

You should have argued with the ghost before she became a ghost.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 4:12 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 3:50 pm

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 3:47 pm Why am I and Dizzy in a dichotomy? That was an Alison thing and now it's an NAA thing and I don't know why.

You're both scummy, and I trust Alison sufficiently to carry her legacy out. This is why I sheeped her from the moment I thought she was town.

But why is there a difference check?

Because likely only one of you can be mafia... And at least one of you MUST be mafia.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 3:47 pm Why am I and Dizzy in a dichotomy? That was an Alison thing and now it's an NAA thing and I don't know why.

You're both scummy, and I trust Alison sufficiently to carry her legacy out. This is why I sheeped her from the moment I thought she was town.

Easy decision tree, guaranteed win.

Kill MR if Town -> Dizzy if Mafia -> Mac

Kill MR if Mafia - > Nanook

I think this game is actually really easy.

There's a hard difference check between Nanook and Mac.

There is a difference check between Dizzy and MR.

If Mac is mafia, it's probably with Dizzy.

Kill MR, Dizzy, Nanook... The order doesn't matter. Killing Alison D1 was a travesty.

Wilgy obviously town tbh.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:49 pm @NotAnAxehole did you not have a scumread on Jay?

I don't know what I think about Jay.

I think Nanook can only read me when I town tell very hard.

For me, kill order is MR, Dizzy, Nanook.

If scum is outside of that... Well, mistakes were made.