The Syndicate

Also, I'm not putting a lot of weight on this kill just for the sake of it, we only get 2 misschops in this format, and we've already expended one on someone who I've repeatedly said through the last 3-4 games is extremely polarized and easy to read.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 10:01 am
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 10:00 am
MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 9:58 am Okay so if I were to rescind my scumread on MR, how does your statement that the four of us can't be town still apply? @NotAnAxehole
Your read on MR is irrelevant to the read.
If you can't explain it to me, you're asking me to just simply forgo using all of my own logic, ignore my intuition on Falcon and simply defer to your mystery read.

You're asking Macdougall. To do that.

I understand the issue, we both agree that Seanzie is town. Neither of us has expressed a take on LC, and both of us have Ender in our would chop list. The question then is, would you bet the game on Ender being mafia, because I don't think I'm that confident that I would.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 9:57 am Okay so as of this very second who do you think the mafia are?

Falcon + Ender/Seanzie/LC/You

or

You + 1 (Litterally no clue)

So, that's why I wanted to see if you can give me a logical solve that is outside of this / if you would need to bend over backwards to do so. I think if you're town, we need to agree on one of MR or Falcon being mafia, which is really tough as of right now. Or we hunt the partner, and I get to read you off of that.

Why am I asking you to demonstrate? Because you already think I'm town, and because you already know my take on the game, I posted it many pages ago.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 9:58 am Okay so if I were to rescind my scumread on MR, how does your statement that the four of us can't be town still apply? @NotAnAxehole

Your read on MR is irrelevant to the read.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 9:56 am
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 9:55 am If it helps, the full read is:

I think it's impossible for me, you, Falcon, MR to all be town.
All it would take is for me to be right about Falcon and for you to be wrong about MR. What is so outlandish about that?

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 9:56 am
MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 9:51 am
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 9:50 am Listen, I'm not going to cry over MR going over, but if you're town and you town read Falcon confidently, I'm town, I town read MR confidently... And we're both willing to let that slide, then we've lost the game, and we might as well concede now.

So the ball is in your court if you want to go down the road of me determining if you can find a logical pairing outside of that or not. I've already made it clear I think that's impossible, so I need help seeing the light.
Why do I have to be the one to acquiesce when I am the one that has demonstrated history of reading Falcon accurately in situations like this? Recent, frequent history?
I've never given a data driven town tell that's been wrong.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 9:55 am
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 9:54 am
MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 9:51 am
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 9:50 am Listen, I'm not going to cry over MR going over, but if you're town and you town read Falcon confidently, I'm town, I town read MR confidently... And we're both willing to let that slide, then we've lost the game, and we might as well concede now.

So the ball is in your court if you want to go down the road of me determining if you can find a logical pairing outside of that or not. I've already made it clear I think that's impossible, so I need help seeing the light.
Why do I have to be the one to acquiesce when I am the one that has demonstrated history of reading Falcon accurately in situations like this? Recent, frequent history?
You don't have to, you can go ahead with flipping MR, be wrong, and the game will be over because our situation will be impossible to re-consider. I'm asking you for your read on the situation because I've already given mine (I think it's impossible for you and Falcon to both be town).
Why is it impossible for us both to be town?

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 9:55 am If it helps, the full read is:

I think it's impossible for me, you, Falcon, MR to all be town.

I won't explain the read, it's just a very very high % mech play.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 9:51 am
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 9:50 am Listen, I'm not going to cry over MR going over, but if you're town and you town read Falcon confidently, I'm town, I town read MR confidently... And we're both willing to let that slide, then we've lost the game, and we might as well concede now.

So the ball is in your court if you want to go down the road of me determining if you can find a logical pairing outside of that or not. I've already made it clear I think that's impossible, so I need help seeing the light.
Why do I have to be the one to acquiesce when I am the one that has demonstrated history of reading Falcon accurately in situations like this? Recent, frequent history?

I've never given a data driven town tell that's been wrong.

If it helps, the full read is:

I think it's impossible for me, you, Falcon, MR to all be town.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 9:51 am
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 9:50 am Listen, I'm not going to cry over MR going over, but if you're town and you town read Falcon confidently, I'm town, I town read MR confidently... And we're both willing to let that slide, then we've lost the game, and we might as well concede now.

So the ball is in your court if you want to go down the road of me determining if you can find a logical pairing outside of that or not. I've already made it clear I think that's impossible, so I need help seeing the light.
Why do I have to be the one to acquiesce when I am the one that has demonstrated history of reading Falcon accurately in situations like this? Recent, frequent history?

You don't have to, you can go ahead with flipping MR, be wrong, and the game will be over because our situation will be impossible to re-consider. I'm asking you for your read on the situation because I've already given mine (I think it's impossible for you and Falcon to both be town).

Listen, I'm not going to cry over MR going over, but if you're town and you town read Falcon confidently, I'm town, I town read MR confidently... And we're both willing to let that slide, then we've lost the game, and we might as well concede now.

So the ball is in your court if you want to go down the road of me determining if you can find a logical pairing outside of that or not. I've already made it clear I think that's impossible, so I need help seeing the light.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 9:45 am
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 9:44 am
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 9:43 am
MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 9:41 am My legacy if I die would be to not chop Falcon anymore because you can't really afford to and I think he's town. It would be to kill Ender and MR because if neither are mafia I'll eat white dog shit.

My current appraisal is that I do not think Falcon is mafia but I am not going to cry about his chop because the info we'd glean and what I believe his townflip would do to the gamestate is positive things. If we are going to mischop anyone let it be him. And if I am the dumbass and he flips mafia, all good. I'll take the L there and try to dig my way out of the bullshit tomorrow. I won't be voting there or encouraging votes but I also won't be screaming bloody murder if he gets run up and goes over.
Right, so if we're not killing Falcon & MR, who are your other 2 aside from EnderWiggin.
The other 2 not being mafia, but being chops
Why do I need another 2 exactly?

3 chops, I'm just asking how you see this going down if we were to consolidate our position.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 9:43 am
MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 9:41 am My legacy if I die would be to not chop Falcon anymore because you can't really afford to and I think he's town. It would be to kill Ender and MR because if neither are mafia I'll eat white dog shit.

My current appraisal is that I do not think Falcon is mafia but I am not going to cry about his chop because the info we'd glean and what I believe his townflip would do to the gamestate is positive things. If we are going to mischop anyone let it be him. And if I am the dumbass and he flips mafia, all good. I'll take the L there and try to dig my way out of the bullshit tomorrow. I won't be voting there or encouraging votes but I also won't be screaming bloody murder if he gets run up and goes over.
Right, so if we're not killing Falcon & MR, who are your other 2 aside from EnderWiggin.

The other 2 not being mafia, but being chops

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 9:41 am My legacy if I die would be to not chop Falcon anymore because you can't really afford to and I think he's town. It would be to kill Ender and MR because if neither are mafia I'll eat white dog shit.

My current appraisal is that I do not think Falcon is mafia but I am not going to cry about his chop because the info we'd glean and what I believe his townflip would do to the gamestate is positive things. If we are going to mischop anyone let it be him. And if I am the dumbass and he flips mafia, all good. I'll take the L there and try to dig my way out of the bullshit tomorrow. I won't be voting there or encouraging votes but I also won't be screaming bloody murder if he gets run up and goes over.

Right, so if we're not killing Falcon & MR, who are your other 2 aside from EnderWiggin.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 9:34 am I have Falcon as a must solve for the purpose of gamestate. I have MR and Ender as the scummiest players in the thread. That is my state of the game. I don't fully understand what your issue with my reads are tbh.

I just want you to believe in my reads when I say I have certain players that I know give off regular town tells, and instead give a 3rd read that isn't MR. If you claim you have a really solid ability to read a certain player (say Falcon), and I think you're town, I'll take it at face value, even if I don't think you're town, I'll take it as a difference check or pocket attempt depending on the read being scum or town.

thread*

@MacDougall You think the Falcon push was for bad reasons, a push I started.

Here are the 4 potential Falcon partners in the game:
Seanzie
LC
Mac
Enderwiggin

Logic puzzle: Why should my world view be anything but reinforced by current threat state & wagons?

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 9:21 am This is one of those games where I feel like I have a good view of the game and my reads are likely well above rand. I often find myself outside of towncore and distrusted when this is the case.

Obviously not impossible I'm just wrong though but if I were flipped right now I'd be inclined to encourage viewing my legacy as confident which isn't always the case.

What would your legacy be? MR+Wiggins+?? (I guess you don't get 3 if you die, but given you're alive, who's your 3rd would-kill)

Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 9:10 am
MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 1:39 am I believe town MR would be scumreading NAA right now.
I don't like this post.

I don't think I'm allowed to have reads, so I'll refrain from comment.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 8:04 am @MacDougall I don't even particularly scum read you, I'm just willing to yeet you if EnderWiggin is town, because I know from research that MR has town told. I've never used one of my secret reads unless I was 95+% confidence that they're correct... So trust me when I say that one of you or Falcon is always mafia, it makes me quite nervous because it puts a lot of pressure on my list read being precise. I would be very upset if that read turned out to be wrong, I just don't think it will turn out to be wrong.

@Master Radishes my reads on you prior to discovering your tell are irrelevant.

I'm also willing to yeet you if Falcon is town, so RIP... I guess maybe that is a scum read, but it's more of an associative read because your alignment in this situation (with 1 miss left) relates to both Falcon and Enderwiggin from my PoV.

And it would be entirely fair for you to have the same, yet opposite perspective if you believed in my reads, which of course you don't.

Listen, if I had more time on my hands, I would meta dive everyone to find something that you don't consider to be part of the game, and figure out what it means for your alignment... But I don't have the willpower or time to do everyone, so I just do the easiest targets. Scotty, Wilgy, MR, etc... Sure I'll run a base level analysis on other people, but if there isn't an immediate trend, I tend to drop it pretty quickly.

FYI, Falcon is just a surface level read, not a read that I've put any time into.

@MacDougall I don't even particularly scum read you, I'm just willing to yeet you if EnderWiggin is town, because I know from research that MR has town told. I've never used one of my secret reads unless I was 95+% confidence that they're correct... So trust me when I say that one of you or Falcon is always mafia, it makes me quite nervous because it puts a lot of pressure on my list read being precise. I would be very upset if that read turned out to be wrong, I just don't think it will turn out to be wrong.

@Master Radishes my reads on you prior to discovering your tell are irrelevant.

Well, not entirely true, we only have 1 miss left.

I think - if Mac is town - Which is a BIG caveat, this game is solved.

Also, for all of those fence-sitters / nay-sayers, here's a past instance of my list read in play:

viewtopic.php?p=910113#p910113

It was accurate then, and it's accurate now.

Porscha wrote: ↑Mon Mar 28, 2022 7:54 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Mar 28, 2022 7:36 pm
Porscha wrote: ↑Mon Mar 28, 2022 7:23 pm like I would have to be doing absolutely no leg work and town ruining this game for themselves b/c the only mafia read i've given is MR and it's obviously not convincing anybody
I'm probably missing something, because I think MR is lock town and I've recently developed a solid system for reading him.
I mean, I'm down to be convinced otherwise, but the one other game I played with them I was very back and forth on whether I was town or scum reading them and I'm wondering if MR always plays in this aloof, doesnt care to be useful type of way frequently. I wouldn't know how to tell the difference between his maf or town play

just haven't seen anything from MR that makes him analyzable except his vote day 1 and then slanking so. idk. if you have the system to help me read MR, feel free to explain

I think being useful is a matter of perspective.

Ok, so given the second bit, I'm sticking to "I'm right" because he has definitive town tells that I'm not going to get into here, and he's already done those town tells. I've used very similar reads to great success on Scotty / DrWilgy if you've been following my recent body of work. Albeit, Scotty didn't town tell D1 in the last game we played which lead to a close call, but I got there in the end.

I'm going to now deliver my patent-pending list read. Each of these lists contains at least 1 mafia:

List 1:
Seanzie
LC
Mac
Enderwiggin

List 2:
Falcon
Mac

If you can figure out where this read comes from, props to you.

Porscha wrote: ↑Mon Mar 28, 2022 7:23 pm like I would have to be doing absolutely no leg work and town ruining this game for themselves b/c the only mafia read i've given is MR and it's obviously not convincing anybody

I'm probably missing something, because I think MR is lock town and I've recently developed a solid system for reading him.

EnderWiggin wrote: ↑Mon Mar 28, 2022 7:09 pm Honestly the fact that my dumb read of NAA town feels like it's right is probably one of my stronger reads atm.

I live in a permanent state of obvi town.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Mar 28, 2022 7:05 pm Am I crazy to see a world where it's Porscha & fingers?

Not crazy. But for today I'm not considering that based on Nanook reads.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Mar 28, 2022 7:06 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Mar 28, 2022 7:05 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Mar 28, 2022 7:03 pm I'm gonna be pretty mad if we have NAA in gamethrowing mode tbh.
If my read is bad, it's game throwing, if your ambiguous read is bad, people need to get off your back .

I actually don't mind banter, but you need to pick a topic that doesn't come up literally every game.
Oh, don't get him started on Vegemite, mate

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Mar 28, 2022 7:03 pm I'm gonna be pretty mad if we have NAA in gamethrowing mode tbh.

If my read is bad, it's game throwing, if your ambiguous read is bad, people need to get off your back

.

I actually don't mind banter, but you need to pick a topic that doesn't come up literally every game.

The "difference" is purely a Mac read, not an Ender-Mac read.

EnderWiggin wrote: ↑Mon Mar 28, 2022 6:56 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Mar 28, 2022 12:32 pm
fingersplints wrote: ↑Mon Mar 28, 2022 11:14 am
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Mar 28, 2022 9:58 am
Seanzie wrote: ↑Mon Mar 28, 2022 9:47 am
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Mar 28, 2022 9:40 am TBH, I'm kind of surprised that Ender isn't voting Mac, because I see no way Mac and Ender can both be town.
Why? Because Mac suspects Ender?
It's not THAT he suspects him, it's HOW he approached the read. Mac came in with a very clear intention to take over the thread, and succeeded.
Is that not standard for Mac though?
I don't understand how that matters, if Mac is muted 1 day, and has a confidently incorrect read the next day, why should my reaction be anything other than to vote Mac? Should I give Mac a free ride to victory every game because he's within his meta while completely ignoring his game impact and accuracy?

I treat this type of play from Mac (yes, within his meta) as a difference check between him and Ender. I think it's the only way to play, otherwise as Mac... Just do this every game, profit as scum, and it likely doesn't affect town win rate all that much because you allow other people to take the D1 kill and just swoop in with what you want D2.
I'm going to point out that you should be aware that Mac's D1/D2 sus on me is exists in most games regardless of our alignments.

He often gets to a correct read later on (But not always), but trying to make it out like it's a Diff-check is a bit forced.

(Side note: This is probably town NAA though.)

My Mac read isn't related to you and is purely related to Mac. All of that is irrelevant given that I think Falcon is obvious mafia, and Mac went from voting you to voting obv!town MR.

EnderWiggin wrote: ↑Mon Mar 28, 2022 6:46 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Mar 28, 2022 1:39 am Welp, looks like I gotta self près onto enderwagon
Why did you feel the need to self pres less than 12 hours into the game NAA?

It was a joke to motivate more people to vote on obv!mafia Falcon.

@MacDougall why are you voting obv!town MR?

I'm more convinced that ever that Falcon is mafia.

Falcon is receiving so much defense and 0 town reads. That's how you know he's mafia.

Lime Coke wrote: ↑Mon Mar 28, 2022 3:10 pm [VOTE: NAA] aubergine

I take it you're unconvinced of the case against falcon? That's another reason falcon is mafia.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Mar 28, 2022 2:08 pm
Seanzie wrote: ↑Mon Mar 28, 2022 12:10 pm
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Mar 28, 2022 10:00 am
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Mar 28, 2022 9:58 am
Seanzie wrote: ↑Mon Mar 28, 2022 9:47 am
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Mar 28, 2022 9:40 am TBH, I'm kind of surprised that Ender isn't voting Mac, because I see no way Mac and Ender can both be town.
Why? Because Mac suspects Ender?
It's not THAT he suspects him, it's HOW he approached the read. Mac came in with a very clear intention to take over the thread, and succeeded.
Oh, you're playing now? Excellent

What's your take on Porscha & fingers?
Eh, I don't like this. NAA has given a lot of thoughts on you. Are some of them kinda reachy? Sure, but he gave reasons for him pushing you. Pretending like he hasn't and only just now started "playing" is pretty meh.

Kinda starting to think NAA might be on to something.
If you read thru NAA's "thoughts" on me and read them as genuine, then I've got a bridge to sell ya

Falcon is pushing the view of "NAA is not genuine", he is not pushing "the read is incorrect". That is how you know he's mafia.

Porscha wrote: ↑Mon Mar 28, 2022 12:38 pm this is a good point falcon I am increasingly worried I have mac brain worms b/c I am biased and have never witnessed wolf mac yet

?

fingersplints wrote: ↑Mon Mar 28, 2022 11:14 am
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Mar 28, 2022 9:58 am
Seanzie wrote: ↑Mon Mar 28, 2022 9:47 am
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Mar 28, 2022 9:40 am TBH, I'm kind of surprised that Ender isn't voting Mac, because I see no way Mac and Ender can both be town.
Why? Because Mac suspects Ender?
It's not THAT he suspects him, it's HOW he approached the read. Mac came in with a very clear intention to take over the thread, and succeeded.
Is that not standard for Mac though?

I don't understand how that matters, if Mac is muted 1 day, and has a confidently incorrect read the next day, why should my reaction be anything other than to vote Mac? Should I give Mac a free ride to victory every game because he's within his meta while completely ignoring his game impact and accuracy?

I treat this type of play from Mac (yes, within his meta) as a difference check between him and Ender. I think it's the only way to play, otherwise as Mac... Just do this every game, profit as scum, and it likely doesn't affect town win rate all that much because you allow other people to take the D1 kill and just swoop in with what you want D2.

For the sake of clarity,

@falcon45ca do you reject my scum read on you based on the premise that you think you've been towny, that you've done nothing this game, or that you think the read is faked?

Seanzie wrote: ↑Mon Mar 28, 2022 9:47 am
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Mar 28, 2022 9:40 am TBH, I'm kind of surprised that Ender isn't voting Mac, because I see no way Mac and Ender can both be town.
Why? Because Mac suspects Ender?

It's not THAT he suspects him, it's HOW he approached the read. Mac came in with a very clear intention to take over the thread, and succeeded.

TBH, I'm kind of surprised that Ender isn't voting Mac, because I see no way Mac and Ender can both be town.

Seanzie wrote: ↑Mon Mar 28, 2022 9:36 am
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Mar 27, 2022 11:00 pm
Seanzie wrote: ↑Sun Mar 27, 2022 8:32 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Mar 27, 2022 6:38 pm I think that Fingersplints, LC and Porscha are all pretty much just town here. Porscha a tier below the other two. Seanzie I think is likely to be town too.
Why do you think I'm town? I've done fuckall thus far.
ender voted you lol
Eh, kind of a weak reason but okay.

The Mafia is Mac + Falcon

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Mar 28, 2022 1:39 am Welp, looks like I gotta self près onto enderwagon

fingersplints wrote: ↑Mon Mar 28, 2022 6:22 am @NotAnAxehole how did you get on an ender vote? Reading your iso seemed like you firmly think mac and falcon are maf, so why vote with Mac?

Welp, looks like I gotta self près onto enderwagon

So, Mac is mafia and we just kill Mac (if somehow town) -> Ender (otherwise) -> Falcon

@MacDougall is it distancing if me scum reading someone guarantees they don't get killed?

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