The Syndicate

Seanzie wrote: ↑Thu Mar 31, 2022 1:38 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Mar 31, 2022 12:12 pm By the way, I think you're mafia Seanzie... And I disagree with what I think you're saying.

Well then, it is probably for the best that you are likely to die today.

Possibly, if you're town you're in a better position to solve today than I am... So rather unfair statement.

I guess there's no hammer, I wasn't sure, so I didn't want to be the one that contributed to ending the day early. But I suppose I can vote now.

[VOTE: Enderwiggin] aubergine

By the way, I think you're mafia Seanzie... And I disagree with what I think you're saying.

Seanzie wrote: ↑Thu Mar 31, 2022 10:32 am So, fairly certain I have the last scum nailed down, but for personal and thread health reasons I don't really want to engage with them.

I mean, you might as well say it since we all know.

@Master Radishes why the checks: when I'm cop I don't tend to check my scum reads, I check people others scum read to see who I need to build trust with in the game

Understanding if you were town was important - even if misleading for my direction that day.

So yeah, my philosophy as cop is trust your reads, and check other people's reads so that if you have to reevaluate, you know where to go and who to trust.

@Porscha I was waiting for reactions before claiming, once you posted 1) I was comfortable enough with you and LC town that I could claim and 2) if I missed Ender's claim while I was asleep and some towny got chopped, I felt like I would be at fault for FPS

Lime Coke wrote: ↑Thu Mar 31, 2022 12:12 am And yes, if Ender flips cop, this is a gamethrow.

We don't often agree on what is game throwing, but in this case we do.

I'm going to let everyone check in & we can hammer whenever really. I'll leave it up to the town that are going to live through the day to decide.

I'm very clearly the cop, and Fingers is town.

The clear mech play is to believe the cop that was green checked by the other cop. If I am VT derailing a red check, you can report me for game throwing, and the mods will side with you.

If anyone sides with Ender here, it's on you. Not on me.

Because there's a vengeful kill, we miss out on 1 day.

Oh wait, no because mafia venge kill will end me today, so you all actually have to find the last mafia.

Yeah, Ender's partner needs to cc this, or Ender threw by claiming cop as town, either way, I think it's about auto.

Yes, I'm hard claiming cop, and I believe Ender is confirmed mafia.

This is why I think Seanzie could be mafia and you thought the night kill was sub optimal. Mafia needed to hunt the cop and didn't think it was me / Ender is likely mafia.

Lime Coke wrote: ↑Wed Mar 30, 2022 11:01 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Wed Mar 30, 2022 10:58 pm Ok, I'm the cop.

I have a green check on Master Radishes from N1 and a green check on Fingersplints from N2.

How real we going here with this?

Real claim, my play around MR yesterday is the result of a green check.

Ok, I'm the cop.

I have a green check on Master Radishes from N1 and a green check on Fingersplints from N2.

@Lime Coke thoughts on Porscha?

Porscha wrote: ↑Wed Mar 30, 2022 10:53 pm i'm also not surprised mac flipped town here tbh but I really would have thought that if wolves didnt go after ender, they'd at least go for NAA. game state between NAA and falcon was already putting pressure on mac as pocketing so keeping mac alive could have possibly resulted in a vote on mac or at least further discourse trying to make mac sound like he's wolf

Yeah, so weird.

I think Porscha is town.

I think it's Seanzie

Lime Coke wrote: ↑Wed Mar 30, 2022 8:46 pm I don't get Seanzie making that kill though, I doubt he'd be suboptimal about the kill?

I don't understand the logic of the Mac kill from any perspective at the moment...

Seanzie just lurking, frozen?

EnderWiggin wrote: ↑Wed Mar 30, 2022 8:39 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Wed Mar 30, 2022 8:38 pm TBH, when I saw Mac flip, I thought this was just a play to live one extra day via fake claim. So the red check is pretty surprising, but I'm curious to see how this plays.

I half suspect this is what people are trying to make it out to be but leaving me uncced doesn't actually accomplish that so idk what's going on.

I mean, if you're mafia, someone will CC. We know the cop is alive.

TBH, when I saw Mac flip, I thought this was just a play to live one extra day via fake claim. So the red check is pretty surprising, but I'm curious to see how this plays.

EnderWiggin wrote: ↑Wed Mar 30, 2022 8:33 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Wed Mar 30, 2022 8:22 pm

EnderWiggin wrote: ↑Wed Mar 30, 2022 6:30 pm I will say later today what result was. But I'm just gonna keep it under my thumb for now.

Why?

Because outing redchecks ruins people's reactions.

I want to see everyone enter thread.

Fair enough.

Do you have a fixed idea of what you think you might accomplish? No need to answer in the thread, just curious about what you're expecting to get out of this.

EnderWiggin wrote: ↑Wed Mar 30, 2022 6:30 pm I will say later today what result was. But I'm just gonna keep it under my thumb for now.

Why?

Mac is a weird kill...

So mafia didn't target the cop?

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 2:06 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 1:28 pm

Porscha wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 1:25 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 1:22 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 1:16 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 1:09 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 12:46 pm

So who's Maf when I flip green?


You've got static world views that don't have to be true...like, you're not even truly considering them to possibly be wrong.


You have MR as lock town. That's absurd

I've answered this question repeatedly & Seanzie recently mentioned it too - which basically tells me you're pretending to be here, but you're really not paying attention to anything I've written, or anything that's been discussed in the thread as of recent.

I'm sorry, but I read your answer of a world w/o me as Maf as "Mac + 1", and that's pretty damn narrow, static, and superficial IMO


There's a difference between pretending to be here and just not buying your explanation.


Also, "pretending to be here"...like your superficial (and self admittedly so) read on me? That's not pretending?

Ok, so your plan is to tell me you're going to flip green, and ask me to form a larger PoE (which is also losing)... I'll stick to my original reads & my own game solving process tyvm. If I'm wrong, I'll look to see why my reads were wrong in post-game like I do every time.

I'm giving my perspective and asking for someone to convince me of another world that makes more sense and that has the possibility of being winning, Mac says too tired, and Falcon arbitrarily says my reads are too specific and I need to revert to a guaranteed losing stance. I don't really know what to make of it other than /ignore.

Are we just waiting for the cop to come in and save us? That's a plan, not a very good one... But as long as we're rolling dice, I don't see anything else netting the win.

If LC flipped red first, where would you go from there

If LC flipped red, I would flip Falcon and Mac.

If Ender flipped red, I would flip Falcon and Mac

If Fingers flipped red, I would flip Mac

If Seanzie flipped red, I would flip Falcon and Mac

If Porscha flipped red, I would flip Mac

If MR flipped red, I would throw my entire decision making tree in the garbage and quit mafia

Did I miss anyone?

I'm starting to TR you, so let's work together instead of against

Ok, kill Mac, he's trying to pocket you.

So if Falcon has a 70% chance of scum reading town, his odds of having exclusively scum read town after 7 scum reads would be ~8.2% - or a 92 % that group of 8 contains mafia... This is just an extreme example with horrible odds. Eventually, if I get good enough at calculating this at a glance, I should near 90% percent accuracy, and that's really the goal of this experiment.

I can even run this using my own data, I don't actually need other players because my town randomness differs from my mafia game... The issue is if I use my own data exclusively, I can end up forming conf biases where I stop being random as town... Which actually would be good, if I was playing against myself - in the long term.

For the record, that group was not Mac Falcon... As I previously explained... That group is

Mac, Falcon, NAA, MR

Now, I know I'm not mafia... You get the idea of how I got there yeah?

So, the list read is quite simple (which is where the AT LEAST 1 between Falcon / Mac comes from):

It assumes that, as town, each player has a random tendency to scum read and reply to another player. The degree of "how random" needs to be calibrated for each player individually.

In a nutshell, if a player takes a bunch of actions relating to other players in close succession, or over the length of the game, it affects the mechanical probability of them having randed mafia together.

I.E. If I have a discussion with Falcon, then MR, then Porscha, then MR... What is happening is a bunch of random events have resulted in me bumping into those people in the thread. This probability assumption isn't the same if I am mafia, because I have a more targeted objective, and I may not reply to the same things, I may not have prolonged discussions at all. Humans are terrible at being random, and they typically don't understand when their actions are actually random - the goal is to exploit this, not necessarily getting direct reads of Player A is diverging from meta while Player B is within their meta, it more looks at Player A is doing things that make group of players A, B, C & D contain mafia.

I'm actually going to sheep Mac's read on Falcon for today, and vote Mac.

Porscha wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 1:36 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 1:24 pm How would you even know that Mac isn't guaranteed to be mafia if you're town in the current game state? Yes, we started from rand, but if I'm right, certain actions have dictated that one of you MUST be mafia. How could you even presume that's false when you don't even know what you're objecting to?

I'd object to someone calling me mafia based on their own science they will not reveal. If I was town. Or mafia for that matter. I can object if I think the answer is wrong no matter how someone got to the answer.

Like I get that's your world view atm but just because you arent willing to share and someone isnt privy to the exact reasoning behind your conclusion doesnt inherently mean it cant be objected to

Ok, sure... He's objecting in principle, but not because he actually understands whether or not what I said is plausible.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 1:36 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 1:28 pm

Porscha wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 1:25 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 1:22 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 1:16 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 1:09 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 12:46 pm

So who's Maf when I flip green?


You've got static world views that don't have to be true...like, you're not even truly considering them to possibly be wrong.


You have MR as lock town. That's absurd

I've answered this question repeatedly & Seanzie recently mentioned it too - which basically tells me you're pretending to be here, but you're really not paying attention to anything I've written, or anything that's been discussed in the thread as of recent.

I'm sorry, but I read your answer of a world w/o me as Maf as "Mac + 1", and that's pretty damn narrow, static, and superficial IMO


There's a difference between pretending to be here and just not buying your explanation.


Also, "pretending to be here"...like your superficial (and self admittedly so) read on me? That's not pretending?

Ok, so your plan is to tell me you're going to flip green, and ask me to form a larger PoE (which is also losing)... I'll stick to my original reads & my own game solving process tyvm. If I'm wrong, I'll look to see why my reads were wrong in post-game like I do every time.

I'm giving my perspective and asking for someone to convince me of another world that makes more sense and that has the possibility of being winning, Mac says too tired, and Falcon arbitrarily says my reads are too specific and I need to revert to a guaranteed losing stance. I don't really know what to make of it other than /ignore.

Are we just waiting for the cop to come in and save us? That's a plan, not a very good one... But as long as we're rolling dice, I don't see anything else netting the win.

If LC flipped red first, where would you go from there

If LC flipped red, I would flip Falcon and Mac.

If Ender flipped red, I would flip Falcon and Mac

If Fingers flipped red, I would flip Mac

If Seanzie flipped red, I would flip Falcon and Mac

If Porscha flipped red, I would flip Mac

If MR flipped red, I would throw my entire decision making tree in the garbage and quit mafia

Did I miss anyone?

I hope I flip Mafia.

Ok, probably not on the last one, but whatever, I've already given my thoughts :P

The biggest question-mark is what to do if Mac flips mafia, I have no clue.

Porscha wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 1:25 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 1:22 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 1:16 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 1:09 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 12:46 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 12:10 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 11:46 am

I think your first 2 points in this post are only true if you're Maf

What..? No..? You do realize this is a set up with only 2 miss elims right?

So... Even a PoE of 4 is losing right now. Basic math..?

So who's Maf when I flip green?


You've got static world views that don't have to be true...like, you're not even truly considering them to possibly be wrong.


You have MR as lock town. That's absurd

I've answered this question repeatedly & Seanzie recently mentioned it too - which basically tells me you're pretending to be here, but you're really not paying attention to anything I've written, or anything that's been discussed in the thread as of recent.

I'm sorry, but I read your answer of a world w/o me as Maf as "Mac + 1", and that's pretty damn narrow, static, and superficial IMO


There's a difference between pretending to be here and just not buying your explanation.


Also, "pretending to be here"...like your superficial (and self admittedly so) read on me? That's not pretending?

Ok, so your plan is to tell me you're going to flip green, and ask me to form a larger PoE (which is also losing)... I'll stick to my original reads & my own game solving process tyvm. If I'm wrong, I'll look to see why my reads were wrong in post-game like I do every time.

I'm giving my perspective and asking for someone to convince me of another world that makes more sense and that has the possibility of being winning, Mac says too tired, and Falcon arbitrarily says my reads are too specific and I need to revert to a guaranteed losing stance. I don't really know what to make of it other than /ignore.

Are we just waiting for the cop to come in and save us? That's a plan, not a very good one... But as long as we're rolling dice, I don't see anything else netting the win.

If LC flipped red first, where would you go from there

If LC flipped red, I would flip Falcon and Mac.

If Ender flipped red, I would flip Falcon and Mac

If Fingers flipped red, I would flip Mac

If Seanzie flipped red, I would flip Falcon and Mac

If Porscha flipped red, I would flip Mac

If MR flipped red, I would throw my entire decision making tree in the garbage and quit mafia

Did I miss anyone?

Porscha wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 1:25 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 1:22 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 1:16 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 1:09 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 12:46 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 12:10 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 11:46 am

I think your first 2 points in this post are only true if you're Maf

What..? No..? You do realize this is a set up with only 2 miss elims right?

So... Even a PoE of 4 is losing right now. Basic math..?

So who's Maf when I flip green?


You've got static world views that don't have to be true...like, you're not even truly considering them to possibly be wrong.


You have MR as lock town. That's absurd

I've answered this question repeatedly & Seanzie recently mentioned it too - which basically tells me you're pretending to be here, but you're really not paying attention to anything I've written, or anything that's been discussed in the thread as of recent.

I'm sorry, but I read your answer of a world w/o me as Maf as "Mac + 1", and that's pretty damn narrow, static, and superficial IMO


There's a difference between pretending to be here and just not buying your explanation.


Also, "pretending to be here"...like your superficial (and self admittedly so) read on me? That's not pretending?

Ok, so your plan is to tell me you're going to flip green, and ask me to form a larger PoE (which is also losing)... I'll stick to my original reads & my own game solving process tyvm. If I'm wrong, I'll look to see why my reads were wrong in post-game like I do every time.

I'm giving my perspective and asking for someone to convince me of another world that makes more sense and that has the possibility of being winning, Mac says too tired, and Falcon arbitrarily says my reads are too specific and I need to revert to a guaranteed losing stance. I don't really know what to make of it other than /ignore.

Are we just waiting for the cop to come in and save us? That's a plan, not a very good one... But as long as we're rolling dice, I don't see anything else netting the win.

If LC flipped red first, where would you go from there

If LC flipped red, I would flip Falcon and Mac.

If Ender flipped red, I would flip Falcon and Mac

If Fingers flipped red, I would flip Mac

If Seanzie flipped red, I would flip Falcon and Mac

If Porscha flipped red, I would flip Mac

If MR flipped red, I would throw my entire decision making tree in the garbage and quit mafia

Did I miss anyone?

How would you even know that Mac isn't guaranteed to be mafia if you're town in the current game state? Yes, we started from rand, but if I'm right, certain actions have dictated that one of you MUST be mafia. How could you even presume that's false when you don't even know what you're objecting to?

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 1:16 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 1:09 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 12:46 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 12:10 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 11:46 am

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 10:28 am

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 10:24 am NAA, for being D2 I have no idea why your world views are so limited

Because it has to be, and the circumstances allow it to be. I would argue that my world view isn't sufficiently limited to have a winning record, even under the assumption that it's correct.

I think your first 2 points in this post are only true if you're Maf

What..? No..? You do realize this is a set up with only 2 miss elims right?

So... Even a PoE of 4 is losing right now. Basic math..?

So who's Maf when I flip green?


You've got static world views that don't have to be true...like, you're not even truly considering them to possibly be wrong.


You have MR as lock town. That's absurd

I've answered this question repeatedly & Seanzie recently mentioned it too - which basically tells me you're pretending to be here, but you're really not paying attention to anything I've written, or anything that's been discussed in the thread as of recent.

I'm sorry, but I read your answer of a world w/o me as Maf as "Mac + 1", and that's pretty damn narrow, static, and superficial IMO


There's a difference between pretending to be here and just not buying your explanation.


Also, "pretending to be here"...like your superficial (and self admittedly so) read on me? That's not pretending?

Ok, so your plan is to tell me you're going to flip green, and ask me to form a larger PoE (which is also losing)... I'll stick to my original reads & my own game solving process tyvm. If I'm wrong, I'll look to see why my reads were wrong in post-game like I do every time.

I'm giving my perspective and asking for someone to convince me of another world that makes more sense and that has the possibility of being winning, Mac says too tired, and Falcon arbitrarily says my reads are too specific and I need to revert to a guaranteed losing stance. I don't really know what to make of it other than /ignore.

Are we just waiting for the cop to come in and save us? That's a plan, not a very good one... But as long as we're rolling dice, I don't see anything else netting the win.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 1:11 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 1:06 pm Can you flesh out your sus a bit?




Also, why are you so (seemingly) comfortable w NAAs lock town read on you? I'd think it would make you wary of his slot, no?

Fleshing out would involve reading back and I'm on my phone right now and refuse to so it. Ask again later.

Asked and answered about NAA. The whole thing is typical him. I've never seen him wolf so dunno the flavour difference but he often has reads like the one on me. If he's pocketing he picked a bad choice to do it to. He recently misread me so might have double checked his algorithm or whatever. My one concern on him is unrelated to his approach to my slot.

To add on this, there's a reasonable argument to be made that MR should be more concerned about people pushing him. I know some people here are fond of TMI reads, but they are seldom right.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 12:46 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 12:10 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 11:46 am

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 10:28 am

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 10:24 am NAA, for being D2 I have no idea why your world views are so limited

Because it has to be, and the circumstances allow it to be. I would argue that my world view isn't sufficiently limited to have a winning record, even under the assumption that it's correct.

I think your first 2 points in this post are only true if you're Maf

What..? No..? You do realize this is a set up with only 2 miss elims right?

So... Even a PoE of 4 is losing right now. Basic math..?

So who's Maf when I flip green?


You've got static world views that don't have to be true...like, you're not even truly considering them to possibly be wrong.


You have MR as lock town. That's absurd

I've answered this question repeatedly & Seanzie recently mentioned it too - which basically tells me you're pretending to be here, but you're really not paying attention to anything I've written, or anything that's been discussed in the thread as of recent.

And I've used it before

@Seanzie does it help if I say it's a Mac read?

Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 12:06 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 10:13 am @Seanzie I think Fingersplints can only be with Mac which from my PoV makes fingerspints always a bad kill, thoughts?

I don't agree that there absolutely has to be at least one mafia in Mac/Falcon, so if you are not willing to consider solves without this condition, then I don't know what to tell you. If you are willing to consider this, then I'd say that many people could be with Fingersplints. I think Fingersplints/Falcon and Fingersplints/Porscha are unlikely, and probably Fingersplints/LC is not the team since Fingersplints echoed someone else's echo of Nook's misgivings about LC, but otherwise I don't see anything eliminating pairs with Fingersplints.

So, my thoughts are unless you can convince me of your Mac/Falcon worldview, I don't agree that Fingersplints is a bad kill.

I see.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 11:46 am

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 10:28 am

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 10:24 am NAA, for being D2 I have no idea why your world views are so limited

Because it has to be, and the circumstances allow it to be. I would argue that my world view isn't sufficiently limited to have a winning record, even under the assumption that it's correct.

I think your first 2 points in this post are only true if you're Maf

What..? No..? You do realize this is a set up with only 2 miss elims right?

So... Even a PoE of 4 is losing right now. Basic math..?

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 10:24 am NAA, for being D2 I have no idea why your world views are so limited

Because it has to be, and the circumstances allow it to be. I would argue that my world view isn't sufficiently limited to have a winning record, even under the assumption that it's correct.

@Seanzie I think Fingersplints can only be with Mac which from my PoV makes fingerspints always a bad kill, thoughts?