The Syndicate

Hi i'm actually town

Have been keeping up with game from beginning, busy rn will post thoughts in a bit (or might wait til close to end of night ig)

So I have basically agreed with the town core all along but as always I have a fear that someone is being incorrectly cleared somewhere

If I had subbed in before nanook had died, I absolutely would have suspected him lol and he can roll in his grave for me expressing any contrarianism to the established poe, but having subbed into one of the poe'd slots and now knowing it's town, I have no choice but to assume someone is probably going deep here

Like i guess wolves could just be colin/alison/tsp but idk

I never really felt the daisy TR originally, then the redirected check or whatever was meh

hally/wisp/lc as close to mech clear as possible in this bastardish setup

jay.... prob just town

sabie idk honestly

kitsu i agree with the reasoning to clear

epi.... could be mafia here? the implication that mafia knew pawn was 3p doesn't seem to mesh with how he treated pawn though?

i guess my poe is something like
tsp > alison > colin > sabie > epi > daisy

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Jul 11, 2020 11:55 pm What do you think of Funnygurl, nutella?

I think she could've been mafia? I suspected her while reading d1 and if it was pawn that killed her she could have been

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Jul 11, 2020 11:57 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Sat Jul 11, 2020 11:56 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Jul 11, 2020 11:55 pm What do you think of Funnygurl, nutella?
I think she could've been mafia? I suspected her while reading d1 and if it was pawn that killed her she could have been
pawn killed nanook not fg

fg was killed by jack daw, whose identity remains unknown

oh ok

I kinda glazed over all that character discussion

yeah I can see colin/alison connection pretty easily

I actually think TSP's relatively incoherent short posts and approach to mechanical/flavor stuff is a bit more in his town meta than not

[mention]JaggedJimmyJay[/mention] I didn't understand why you felt a townie spark from daisy so early on, I didn't really

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 12:14 am where was the scum kill N1 though if nanook was the sk shot and fg was the vig shot

maybe it was blocked or doctored?

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 12:15 am
nutella wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 12:14 am @JaggedJimmyJay I didn't understand why you felt a townie spark from daisy so early on, I didn't really
do you think her claim should clear her?

no, I don't

now that I know wilgy was town I kinda wonder if colin expressed tmi on him (in addition to the potential jay tmi)

he had a fairly easy-seeming town meta read of wilgy based on like not very much

but then again on the other hand I do remember kinda feeling a slight townread from wilgy's few existing posts before I got his rolecard lol

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 12:18 am
nutella wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 12:14 am @JaggedJimmyJay I didn't understand why you felt a townie spark from daisy so early on, I didn't really
It's difficult to qualify beyond that spiritual level of feeling the right way when I read her posts. She struck me as earnest and genuine in a way that she has tended to strike me when I have correctly viewed her as a civilian in the past.

Is there a reason you think she'd have to bother with all that claiming stuff at the start of Day 2 as a mafioso?

i probably need to reread it. had she seen wisp's claim of town!lc or did she post her 3p result unprompted

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 12:18 am
nutella wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 12:16 am
Hally wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 12:15 am
nutella wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 12:14 am @JaggedJimmyJay I didn't understand why you felt a townie spark from daisy so early on, I didn't really
do you think her claim should clear her?
no, I don't
why not?

I think especially if she hadn't seen wisp's post yet, which i vaguely remember her post kinda sounding like she hadn't, it couldve been a way to keep LC in the POE? idk if that makes sense over her just being redirected, but maybe she's on the scum team with the redirector and..... yeah idk where i'm going with this tbh it's too much for me to wrap my head around rn

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 12:21 am she was basically cc-ing wisps check

oh huh. i thought i remembered thinking from the wording of her post that she might not have seen/read wisp's post and didn't realize her claim was contradictory to info already in the thread

if it was clear she realized that, it's prob more likely she was just being transparent about stuff being weird lol

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 12:23 am
nutella wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 12:20 am
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 12:18 am
nutella wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 12:14 am @JaggedJimmyJay I didn't understand why you felt a townie spark from daisy so early on, I didn't really
It's difficult to qualify beyond that spiritual level of feeling the right way when I read her posts. She struck me as earnest and genuine in a way that she has tended to strike me when I have correctly viewed her as a civilian in the past.

Is there a reason you think she'd have to bother with all that claiming stuff at the start of Day 2 as a mafioso?
i probably need to reread it. had she seen wisp's claim of town!lc or did she post her 3p result unprompted
I saw Wisp's apparent and sudden determination that LC was good, directly after I had a 3p read on LC. Which made me feel it was necessary at that point to try and temper things, because I knew something was wrong with one of our reads. As things progressed in the discussion it required me claiming, which i had no intention to do until i thought I might have a solid scum read. But here we are, with two outed cops and no red checks yet.

ok

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 12:26 am
nutella wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 12:23 am
Hally wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 12:21 am she was basically cc-ing wisps check
oh huh. i thought i remembered thinking from the wording of her post that she might not have seen/read wisp's post and didn't realize her claim was contradictory to info already in the thread

if it was clear she realized that, it's prob more likely she was just being transparent about stuff being weird lol
yeah, she pretty explicitly said she didnt believe wisp amd then outed her check shortly after

also why would w!daisy fake a 3P check there? then we flip lc and he flips town and...? what would daisy do then?

I guess you have a point yeah, she was probably just redirected

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 12:27 am @nutella what'd you like about Wilgy before you occupied his skin?

i don't remember specifically, it's always hard to tell with him since he has a jokey and lax tone regardless of alignment but i did feel something there that pointed to him being on his own

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 12:31 am
Wisp wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 12:21 am I'll most likely end up on Nutella
or hitting one of the more spicy targets like JJJ, and Alison, just in the off case I die sooner than later, confirming one of them in town worlds would be great
don't really have to think about Hally, she is just town
Spacy can be a wolf if I squint my eyes really hard and pretend they didn't play god awful trying to fake a check on Long con for absolutely no reason
In a redirector world? aka Daisy being the wolf with a redirector, knowing the redirector is silent, could just very adamantly claim they thought their check was real
but it's doubtful they don't still get lynched? so ehhhhhh?
I like that you consider JJJ a spicy target. We'll get there.

you still suspect him yeah?

I caught him in ziggy and you were his teammate there, do you think he is similar here? bc I don't

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 1:15 am nutella, are we in "nutella called me town, therefore she is bad" mode?

nope

I just don't see whatever it is LC sees, and this has been true since before I subbed in

I don't think you're "going through the motions" in the fake way at all

I'd be happy to be checked by wisp, don't want to say too much yet but my role can potentially be helpful if we can coordinate well

lol what are reads

we just dont know

lmao the host is voting in the night poll

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 2:38 am
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 2:15 am
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 1:35 am yeah that's right. I wasn't really thinking about it.
Tony's mafia. His "suspicion" of me has been vague horseshit all game long. He can hardly stick a random take into the thread without immediately pulling back on it. He has no real opinions of anything.

Each of you out there: I challenge you to tell me what TonyStarkPrime's read is on you -- not what takes he has given on assorted posts, but what his read is.
like. to borrow an idea from Epi, I don't believe that you believe this.

I don't believe that you believe this

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 2:40 am I should be cleared from the way I viewed Pawn's spot but that's neither here nor there.

elaborate?

cursory glance shows you thought he couldn't be 3p for "reasons"

hm

wdym giving up on his poe

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 2:43 am
nutella wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 2:42 am cursory glance shows you thought he couldn't be 3p for "reasons"

hm
I'm not talking about those reasons and will not because I was clearly wrong. But it doesn't make sense for a wolf, especially a wolf who knows that pawn is the SK (but I don't think the wolves did know that), to present that as a thought.

not sure i follow lol

especially given your parenthetical why wouldn't a wolf say that? like to present a perspective of pawn being a suspect as a potential wolf in the poe still / to combat tmi? idk

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 2:47 am
nutella wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 2:44 am wdym giving up on his poe
I guess it's only giving up if he tries to get me chopped over Colin or you. That's the suggestion I get from his posts.

well I'm hoping to be relatively cleared soon enough

Colin is prob my top suspect tho, so if it can be shown that you're unaligned with him that's cool

the way he tagged along to hally's case on pawn definitely looks opportunistic in retrospect, whether he thought pawn was town or 3p, he was an easy poe target who wolf!colin knew was not on his team

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 2:56 am Frankly I'd benefit from taking a step back and explaining my thought process more instead of just throwing random ideas into the thread.

i mean personally i think tossing underdeveloped thoughts into the thread the way you've been doing is generally a town indicator, it's just also good to be able to develop them for other people to understand if possible

like jay is scumreading you for just spitting out scattered random takes, but i lean toward that being town behavior -- making quick leaps in logic in your head about things that you don't necessarily justify in writing

kinda like turnip's town meta, they do a lot of unspoken processing and just jump to conclusions. and your play here is even a bit more transparent than theirs usually is, i think it's just hard for us to follow the way you think

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 3:03 am
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 2:38 am
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 2:15 am
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 1:35 am yeah that's right. I wasn't really thinking about it.
Tony's mafia. His "suspicion" of me has been vague horseshit all game long. He can hardly stick a random take into the thread without immediately pulling back on it. He has no real opinions of anything.

Each of you out there: I challenge you to tell me what TonyStarkPrime's read is on you -- not what takes he has given on assorted posts, but what his read is.
like. to borrow an idea from Epi, I don't believe that you believe this.
I don't care what you claim you believe. Your assorted takes are a mess of nonsense. I have no clue where you stand beyond some vague notion of "I guess I agree with the POE pool". Your play has been utterly aimless.

why is aimlessness a wolf tell for him though

i think it's the opposite

i think wolf tsp would look a lot more organized

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 3:05 am
nutella wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 3:02 amlike jay is scumreading you for just spitting out scattered random takes, but i lean toward that being town behavior -- making quick leaps in logic in your head about things that you don't necessarily justify in writing
I think I would agree with you if it all led somewhere. Let's say Tony is assessing Player X. Represent a negative take with a "-" and a positive take with a "+". Tony's assessments of Player X:

- - + - + + + - - + - + - + + + - - + - + - +

What is the conclusion?

what is the point of pulling this post out of your ass

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 3:06 am
nutella wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 3:05 amwhy is aimlessness a wolf tell for him though

i think it's the opposite

i think wolf tsp would look a lot more organized
This isn't a meta read. I don't really care about that right now frankly. If I just ask myself "is this an easy way for TonyStarkPrime to feign involvement as a mafioso?" the answer is "yes".

I mean my take isn't even a fully developed meta read necessarily, though i think it is influenced by the fact that i've sort of recently gotten to know tsp more as a person and in a way have a better handle on how he thinks in general

but it's also something that can apply broadly as a towntell imo

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 3:08 am
nutella wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 3:06 am what is the point of pulling this post out of your ass
I'm trying to represent my perception of Tony's play concisely.

well I'd be interested to see if you can defend that perspective with evidence from his actual content.

I'm not necessarily defending that he has good progressions or anything, I concede to your point that I can't really tell you what his reads have been. I just think that it's unfair to make that point without specifics

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 3:09 am I think Jay has a very good impression of what my posts look like. I'm sure my ISO wrt alison can be summed up exactly like that

lol k

and I sympathize with having such a progression on alison specifically

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 3:12 am To be clear:

By tone, I think Tony sounds fine. Someone has to be a mafioso though, and I don't think his posts would be a difficult fit in that alignment.

i have a suddenly burning hot take that i now want to post in the "unpopular mafia opinions" thread on mu

tone > content

hi nanook

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 3:14 am I'm sort of feeling long con / colin / Alison but we actually all could do with some increased focus on Long Con.

do you have a reason to disbelieve wisp's clear of lc?

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 3:23 am
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jul 11, 2020 4:53 pm
Alison wrote: ↑Sat Jul 11, 2020 4:12 pm [VOTE: pawn lelouch] aubergine

town colin has no reason to oppose a lelouch execute there btw. i think they are buddies now
arbitrary
this is weird too. maybe it points to Alison/colin being unaligned? or maybe the idea is w!alison is freed from colin suspicion when pawn flips not wolf. unclear

I would lean more toward the latter

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 3:27 am @nutella, if neither Tony nor Long Con is a mafioso, who is?

colin and alison are my main suspects rn

daisy, sabie, epi are kind of my fringe poe/wildcards

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 3:29 am
nutella wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 3:29 am
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 3:27 am @nutella, if neither Tony nor Long Con is a mafioso, who is?
colin and alison are my main suspects rn

daisy, sabie, epi are kind of my fringe poe/wildcards
what about wilgy?

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 3:30 am I'm falling asleep now

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 3:30 am ignore that

lol

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:32 am
nutella wrote: ↑Sat Jul 11, 2020 11:51 pm So I have basically agreed with the town core all along but as always I have a fear that someone is being incorrectly cleared somewhere

If I had subbed in before nanook had died, I absolutely would have suspected him lol and he can roll in his grave for me expressing any contrarianism to the established poe, but having subbed into one of the poe'd slots and now knowing it's town, I have no choice but to assume someone is probably going deep here

Like i guess wolves could just be colin/alison/tsp but idk

I never really felt the daisy TR originally, then the redirected check or whatever was meh

hally/wisp/lc as close to mech clear as possible in this bastardish setup

jay.... prob just town

sabie idk honestly

kitsu i agree with the reasoning to clear

epi.... could be mafia here? the implication that mafia knew pawn was 3p doesn't seem to mesh with how he treated pawn though?

i guess my poe is something like
tsp > alison > colin > sabie > epi > daisy
talk to me about this ordering?

Also consider this: if mafia had a targeted redirector, they knew pawn was 3p. If mafia are truly poe clamped they probably want to leave pawn alive so he can kill townies with his extra KP (maybe even kill both investigatives in one night so we can't get any info). This suggests that wolf Epi does have a reason for defending pawn. Why is it inconsistent in your eyes?

my order already changed since posting that since I decided I was leaning more town on tsp. would put colin at top now

also that's a good point about epi I guess.

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:50 am
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 4:58 am
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Jul 10, 2020 4:16 pm ready for this spice? jay/epi/alison, pawn is 3p

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Jul 10, 2020 4:16 pm no, pawn isn't 3p. It can be Wilgy I guess
"oops, I wasn't supposed to know this"
I believe this could be a legit wolf slip

hmmmm maybe

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 6:05 am I highlighted one moment here that spoke to me nicely. Colin seemed to become a bit indignant in his handling of pressure from Alison in such a way that I don't think it looks like he is dealing with his teammate. If he is a mafioso, then there is a release of frustration evident in that moment. A mafioso Colin might have also meant to pocket Alison with that initial "top town read" judgment.

makes sense

currently thinking colin > epi > tsp > alison

(at 3780ish still reading)

KitsuShel wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 8:46 am
Hally wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 12:12 am we should start planning our actions

i think it would be a good idea for us to investigate nut? i really like the idea of having a confirmed town!nut if shes town. at the same time i thiiiink i may be able to pick out nuts village game as she posts more

epi is also a good choice for an investigation i think?

colin has claimed miller so we can vig or yeet him ig

i will voyeur whoever wisp and daisy decide to check

and whatever protective role we have (if we do have one) should pretty much always be on wisp
Playing Devil’s Advocate, what if Wisp is scum and that role is their way of getting fake claims to use? But they came across an opportunity to make him look like a good guy.

Or what if he and LC are on a team and they decided to pull that stunt together to move them to give them a secure spot in towncore? That’d be ballsy af. Just tossing around different ideas.

I'd had this thought too (why can't wisp be fooling us) but there's also hally's voyeur which confirmed wisp checked LC so like. if they're teammates they knew to still actually do the action in case they were tracked/voyeured, or the alternative is hally is also scum with them which I'm not even to consider atm. occam's razor is to just trust wisp as long as he's providing us info, and if that info is ever proven to be dirty we can entertain tinfoil

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 9:36 am here is a thought

if jack daw is a town vig and knows that their kill janitors the flips of their target, they shouldn’t shoot anymore

now that we’ve yeeted the sk, the balance of the game is in towns favor because we’ve just removed a source of anti town kp

we dont really need a vig shooting now if it’s gonna mean we get no flips from the shots

i promise we’ll regret it when its like D4 and we have three flips in the PoE pool whose alignments we don’t even know

we need to be able to make connections and actually solve for the team and we can’t do that with missing flips

i can foresee a horror story down the line where we vig scum and don’t know it and the teammate who are left are able to exploit the lack of flips to screw us

so i think if jack daw is town they shouldn’t shoot

again, this only applies to if you know for a fact your kill was the reason fg didn’t flip and not because of fg herself

if that doesn’t apply fire away

man I think LC mentioned this but way back in the day some of us played with no flips on NKs as the norm and now I can't even remember how we ever figured anything out lmao

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 9:54 am have we considered that there's no vig?

kill + clean seems more in line with something a mafia would do than something a town role would do. it's possible that SK shot nanook and mafia shot FG.if we think about it from the perspective of a mafia member, denying the FG flip to us is powerful (which is why hally was so upset about it). and, if FG is town, they have to nightkill her at some point to win since she can't be exed. this suggests that mafia wanted to wipe away FG's role with the janitor while there was maximum uncertainty as to what alignment she is. they could easily have feared her coming back into the thread and obvtowning it up, or being investigated by someone, at which point they would have lost the opportunity to deny town major information by wiping the evidence away.

the more I think about it, the more I think it's plausible that mafia strategically killed FG to deny us information. which would mean FG is town, although I have already argued we should assume she is regardless

hmmm

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 10:11 am what if colin isn’t scum

i can’t say i feel that strongly that he is even though i see the points others are raising

they don’t particularly move me ig and he comes off pretty genuine to me

yeah like every time I actually see him post I want to think he's just town

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 1:57 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 1:50 pm Tony. Just say it. What about Girl Genius?
Since Sprityo subbed out I think this shouldn’t be discussed, but Sprityo was the serial killer in that game and played it substantially differently than he did here. It was enough for me to make an off the cuff post about it.

uhhhm i think i buy this but also it's lame lol

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 1:58 pm And like how often do you get serial killer meta

i think that's why i don't like that you used it lol

they're such individual cases that i don't find it surprising that it wasn't really comparable

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 2:09 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 2:06 pm sprityo in Girl Genius

What’s the difference?

I don’t think this is remotely angleshooting unless we’re dwelling in “all meta reads are angleshooting” philosophy.
He subbed in there — that’s funny. He has seven posts in five days in that game, none with game relevant content, and stuck around the whole time.

okay I think I kind of see what your thought process was now

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 2:07 pm I don’t know if you’ve noticed this but I tend to post my reads *before* I think about them

relatable lol

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 3:29 pm
Alison wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 2:57 pm I don't see what the rest of you do in Colin, but I think TSP's handling of the Pawn-is-3P thing has been very bad and want him to die first now
o p p o r t u n i s t i c

funny i was just glancing at your p5 iso that jay just linked and you did this spacing for emphasis a lot there

do you do it as town too or is this enough of a tell that i should flip my read of you on

tbf I can see what alison is saying about the pawn 3p thing being a weird/more likely mafia thought process

but otoh like i said i thought i kind of understood his explanation

idk

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