The Syndicate

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 2:06 pm Ugh I really don't blame yall for tinfoiling me, I know I haven't put much effort into this and took advantage of wisp's check to kind of slank. I get that my role is not particularly proveable but, still, come on, eliminating me before kitsu or sabie is just dumb at this point. It really feels almost like a crapshoot at this point but I think kitsu makes logical sense as a priority but assuming we still have a poisoner to find I really think it's either sabie or jay.

....hm. well. if kitsu really is a town vig, maybe it would make more sense to eliminate sabie or jay today and have kitsu agree to NK the other one and see if the game ends??

Why is it dumb to eliminate you before Kitsu or sabie if you don't believe Kitsu is even a candidate for poisoner?

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 2:06 pm ....hm. well. if kitsu really is a town vig, maybe it would make more sense to eliminate sabie or jay today and have kitsu agree to NK the other one and see if the game ends??

I'm a civilian. If sabie is too, that may well end the game.

The wrong way.

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 2:20 pm because I'm obviously not a threat and kitsu could be?

I wish that was obvious.

I do agree this feels like a crapshoot though. We have exactly nothing to go on and any chop here feels like a shrug to me. The literal best I can do is "the Day 2 poll told me to chop Kitsu".

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 2:21 pm I mean, the only way you could think i'm a threat is if you also tinfoil wisp, yeah?

He implied earlier that it is possible, in theory, for his investigations to be tampered with. If you're the supposed tampering protector, I don't really need Wisp to be your teammate or some such for you to just flat not be what you say you are.

In the territory of questioning Wisp's checks, I don't really trust Long Con either at this point. That's why I asked about a Wilgy/nutella action on Night 1, to see what tampering if any could exist for Wisp's LC check.

He has not hunted at all since he was cleared beyond what may truly be the emptiest tunnel I have ever been subjected to. There's seriously nothing in that tunnel, but it continues to happen.

Oh and Epi has all but begged for the game to end since he was cleared.

Great situation.

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 2:29 pm I thought that I was the best doctor ever. When things started getting narrow down and it seemed like there was no Mafia kill, I already had my tuxedo on for this year's Sockys.

Then I didn't even send in a protect last night, and there was still no kill. I hadn't totally believe in the idea that there was no Mafia in this game, but what am I supposed to do with that?

If there's no Mafia, then I don't know who we have to kill, it could be anybody. You are the one I have suspected the most, maybe you are the only one we have to kill. I don't know. I don't know what else to go on oh, but my guts, at this point.

Okay I believe this. Long Con is fine.

KitsuShel wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 2:32 pmI think the poisoning might be the mafia hit, which doesn't show up until end of the next day.

I think that's the only possible angle remaining for any kind of "mafia team" to exist, and even that isn't really a mafia team. If that's it, then the team dynamics would open up to something like [Funnygurl and/or Colin] + [nutella and/or Epignosis] with the possible inclusion of sabie and/or Kitsu. If my understanding of this mechanical nonsense is remotely accurate.

Epignosis claimed that he treated a poison on Day 1.

Is a poisoner ever able to kill someone on Day 1? It'd require an action to start the day to make sense. This game did not have a Day 0.

I mean, if Kitsu isn't a poisoner and Wisp/his checks are to be trusted, then the poisoner must be sabie.

I wish that deduction felt more comfortable than it does.

If the mafia tried to kill me all four nights there would be a 0.16% chance of all of them failing.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 9:43 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 8:01 am @Epignosis who have you protected from poisons?
Nanook Day 1, Spacedaisy Day 2, Wisp Day 3, and Long Con Day 4.

Note that if there was a poisoning for today and it wasn't Long Con, that player is going to die.

Addendum:

If there's a poisoning today, it would support the notion that there is one every day -- meaning Epignosis may have truly prevented a poison of Spacedaisy (and/or somehow Nanook).

In general it's a good practice to never be okay with dying, k

The lack of kills is just objective evidence of something I suspect (no traditional mafia) for other reasons too.

The POE pool felt so solid all game long because it was. People projected civilianhood and/or were given clearance by mechanical means. Someone still has to be chopped, and even as well acknowledged that the likes of Alison and Tony seemed town sometimes -- someone had to be chopped. Then they flipped town. Colin seemed the same way they did at times, which is why I hold out little hope of him being mafia.

Now we're in the same situation. I don't think Kitsu or sabie seem like mafia. They just don't. I'm not. So what "team" is left? Wisp's entire check crew? It just doesn't hold up to scrutiny any longer.

But we're still here and, again, someone has to be chopped. A poisoner exists. That much is a certainty. So my only interest today is in chopping the poisoner.

sabie's role can be tested if there's a tie and she isn't a part of it. Have her declare her choice before Jack posts the flip. If it happens, she is not confirmed. If it doesn't happen, she is a confirmed liar.

Not sure about this really, but it's a possibility to consider.

Wisp wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 3:18 pm Did Epi say if/who he targeted today?

Actually no. I'd said before it was LC, but I misread -- that was Epi's protection on Day 4.

[mention]Epignosis[/mention] who's safe from poison today?

Wisp wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 3:16 pm @JaggedJimmyJay
going through Sabie's iso, still the same conclusion
nothing pings me as malicious, but nothing pings me as really townie
Best reason to call them town is because of your believe in how polarized their meta is
Best? reason to call them a wolf, their ability isn't provable, and they could have one of the abilities we are looking for?

I don't think she looks like a player who is informed on the alignments of others, or at least she hasn't much of the game. That says nothing about the potential for her to be an independent player though. Pretty much everyone alive can fit that behavioral profile, including her.

sabie12 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 3:22 pm My thought was look for the poisoner as well. I mean my logic was if there were so many millers it stands to reason there could be a godfather out there as well meaning the checks may not have all been accurate. Nutella says she used to her power on the check on her but she may not have.

What exactly are you proposing we do with the current chop?

[VOTE: sabie12] aubergine

I'm going to be away for a while starting soon, but I should be back well before the deadline.

sabie12 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 3:40 pm You mentioned trying to figure out who the poisoner is so I was responding to that. I don't think I know anymore than anyone else does what to do right now.

I just want to ensure I understand exactly what you meant. Were you proposing nutella is your lead candidate to be the poisoner, even if you're not sure?

KitsuShel wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 7:47 amSo, maybe we have two people left and lying. The blond non-Jack and possibly Jack Napier.

This where I am right now.

KitsuShel
JaggedJimmyJay
sabie12
Wisp
Long Con
nutella
Epignosis

Who can prove they can do what they say they can?

In terms of content, my biggest present question about Kitsu lies with this reads list. This came during the present day phase. It is pretty hard to understand how she can come to these tiers under the current circumstances. Even if one is to question Wisp's checks, how is the green pile exclusively comprised of people who aren't checked?

Kitsu is right that I had not drawn a connection to the Jack Daw character in my consideration of her as a poisoner. Again, these flavor dynamics often don't even occur to me. When I get out of this virtual conference I can take a look.

Everyone has fakes though so it's hard for me to say who is a better candidate to be "blondie" or "hypothetical Joker thing".

I am experiencing a momentary confidence boost. Consider:

There was a night killer (Pawn). Long Con protects from night kills.

There is a poisoner. Epignosis treats poison.

These align appropriately.

If Epignosis is innocent, it is much harder to find a team for nutella. It’d be just Wisp I think? I don’t think that’s a team. It wouldn’t clear nutella of being independent, but at least Wisp checked her.

That means sabie and Kitsu are just the only candidates. Include me if you want, but you’ll be wrong.

Tie up sabie and Kitsu. Sabie decides the tie. Or she doesn’t. Go from there.

This requires solving the host which I hate to do. But I don’t know what else we’re supposed to do at this point. If someone sees a hole speak loudly.

3-3-1

Note that, as I mentioned before, sabie’s role cannot be confirmed. It can only be disproven.

sabie12 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 6:59 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 6:51 pm Note that, as I mentioned before, sabie’s role cannot be confirmed. It can only be disproven.
Whose to say that extra one isn't going to just pile on and vote me at the last second?

Kitsu ought to already be on you. Otherwise I don’t know why anyone else would do that.

I just might.

[mention]sabie12[/mention] do you think there is a mafia team?

I'm not sure why sabie is hesitating with this tiebreak idea.

I have granted the entire game that Wisp’s checks may not be infallible. The problem is that he has been given information by the host, and there is quite literally no way whatsoever for a civilian to know when that information should be ignored. It’s wild-ass guessing.

Put another way:

If there’s an evil doer among Wisp’s checks, they’ve done nothing to actually create an advantage in this game. They’re just riding on a game mechanic that civilians cannot reasonably be expected to solve.

If that’s you, dear reader, you didn’t earn it.

I’ve considered that Wisp could just be a mafia role checker.

But there is no mafia. Unless they’ve just skipped kills on purpose repeatedly, another example of riding a mechanical advantage that civilians cannot feasibly match.

Remember that Hally corroborated that Long Con was role card checked via their voyeur power.

So Wisp can definitely do what he says he can do. Can he ALSO poison? Hell if I know. I don’t tjink he seems bad.

Way back when Wisp checked Long Con, he seemed almost annoyed to concede that LC was no longer an appropriate chop option -- like he had to put a strong read behind him and move on from it.

If he is anything other than a civilian, I would expect he'd benefit from a LC chop. So I'm not sure why he'd out it, or even soft claim it the way he did before Hally revealed their voyeur.

Wisp wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 10:58 pm @Long Con
Just take my town read you bastard

sabie12 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 9:27 pm Crazy conspiracy theory time but like what if jay were the poisoner and concocted this plan to take out me and kitsu at the same time. As in if he already poisoned me and knows I will pick kitsu in the tie then we're both gone and out of the way.

This doesn't make sense. You don't need to be tied for me to pull this maneuver if that's what I am doing.

Kitsu could be chopped 6-1 and you'd still die of poison in that scenario. The tie is irrelevant to it.

I am bothered that you are resisting this idea. It should be a pretty easy call for you compared to just about any other player.

sabie12 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 10:52 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 10:51 pm
sabie12 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 9:27 pm Crazy conspiracy theory time but like what if jay were the poisoner and concocted this plan to take out me and kitsu at the same time. As in if he already poisoned me and knows I will pick kitsu in the tie then we're both gone and out of the way.
This doesn't make sense. You don't need to be tied for me to pull this maneuver if that's what I am doing.

Kitsu could be chopped 6-1 and you'd still die of poison in that scenario. The tie is irrelevant to it.

I am bothered that you are resisting this idea. It should be a pretty easy call for you compared to just about any other player.
Well you have to convince someone to move thier vote somewhere random

You could move your own vote and still control the tie.

If someone just jumps over to you at the last second, that player is outed. If it's somehow an instant-win mafia-aligned move, then the game is so hopelessly bastardized from the start that I cannot bring myself to even care. I raise this idea entirely on the basis of a there's-no-mafia world view.

When I read Jack's flavor, I can't even see clear evidence that the blonde man is evil. The blonde man has only been indicated as killing people in the flavor for players who have been chopped. The blonde man opened portals of swords or whatever for Pawn and Tony etc.

The only clear evil I can see is a poisoner, whoever the hell that's supposed to be.

[mention]Wisp[/mention] how about you move to make it 3-3-1

[mention]sabie12[/mention] make sure to refresh often in case of overlapping vote moves.

two minutes let

[mention]sabie12[/mention] ensure you send your tiebreak choice

Okay. Tie achieved.

We'll see what happens. What the hell ever.

If the game does somehow end, at least it will prevent me from reaching 1,000.

k that’s fine

just show me what’s up with the night kill situation

I stated my gripes about the poison mechanic in the spectator chat, so here I’ll just say:

Good game.

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