dyachei wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 6:39 pm
So if it's not alison, I want to look at the people who didn't really have a conviction on her slot
I... would expect town!dya to do that overnight. And to start today with different posting.
Marl claiming JK on c4
Amy has the towniest reactions to the initial shitshow (Marl claiming JK on c4). But she's already an IC so w/e.
C4/SPF is complicated and depends on who was actually carrying the kill. I think a SPF/c4 world has TMI on c4 not being outed (not carrying the kill), though. C4's reaction to it is like "who the fuck would kill me" which doesn't sound very concerned. And SPF reluctantly admits c4 might be mafia after all. I'd expect more extreme reactions from them if c4 was actually the carrier.
Zack is completely uninterested in this conundrum and talks about Dya first thing. Either he's town thinking Marl's claim is fake or mafia with TMI.
Visor... just tells people not to claim early. Does not consider the claim being fake, either.
C4/SPF not having strong reactions to the claim. Zack ignoring it straight up. Visor complaining about the early claim. Yeah, nobody believed the claim. Except maybe Visor. The reactions are so weak. Nutella's reaction by voting c4 stands out a bit but that's also not very strong. I can't extrapolate anything from this, it's impossible they are all wolves with TMI. Probably not Marl's partners, though, if Marl is a wolf? This is a reach, but if Marl had his partners in the thread while claiming, he'd have them support him.
Sunbae claiming JK on me
Sunbae's claim is actually very towny from the start. If this get CC'd the CCer better have a good case for themselves.
C4 and Marl's reaction is basically the same. "WHAT?" Visor's reaction is actually really good here. He doesn't assume I'm mafia, for one, and thinks about other mechanical possibilities.
Marl goes all in on me being a wolf here and accuses Arete of being my partner. ...I actually think it's TOWN indicative of him. This is extremely opportunistic of him, but hear me out here. I really don't think wolf!Marl instantly take the opportunity to chain two misyeets here. Even if he gets both misyeets, this makes him look absolutely terrible. His reaction fits the bill of "townie who feels betrayed and assumes the worst straight up." The post pinging me afterward about my effort in the mason chat is even townier. Wolf Marl has no reason to post this since he already pretends I'm a wolf. It all reads like "villager who thinks he was betrayed." And since he has a tendency to tunnel, his insistence on me being a wolf here is something I don't find surprising.
Yeah, no, his posting continues to be exactly what I'd expect from villager!him. He even seems to forget the postcap exists and screamsa for like 30 posts. This isn't wolf!Marl.
#2860 is another post from him I find super unlikely to come from a wolf POV. This isn't a thought that comes to wolf!Marl, since wolf!Marl knows I'm VT and Sunbae is trueclaiming.
SPF trying to figure out whether I'm JK or not could go either way. Her trying to figure out what I was trying to do with c4 looks decent but I think it's in her wolfrange.
Dya's posts are really 'eh' throughout. They don't seem very invested in this conundrum. They sound so... deflated throughout today. I'd warrant a guess they expect to go regardless of me being "redchecked" and they've lost the WiM to play. I don't think v!dya who was wrong on Alison posts like this today, I just don't.
Visor and Zack talking about something completely unrelated is wolfy. Visor worldbuilding around my red flip before I even get the chance to defend myself is wolfy. They don't seem to care about me ever posting today, they are setting themselves up for the future. I don't sense a villagery inquisitiveness in their posting. Visor looks better than Zack because at least he's looking into mechanical possibilities. That said, wolves can easily do this as well. The one thing that looks good for Visor is that he reaches the conclusion vul/c4/dya. I think c4 is a wolf and I think dya is a wolf as well. The third isn't me, though; if anything I'd say it's SPF for shielding c4 and pretending to be pocketed.
If dya/c4/spf (spf only if c4 is actually a wolf) is not the solve, I'd take another look at Zack/Visor. Zack just isn't giving a damn about the situation. Meanwhile, if that solve is wrong, then Visor created a PoE of three villas while preflipping me red. I realize he's now considering other worlds but that should still say a lot. SPF's posting have been alright but I think her wolfrange is broad enough to accomodate them.
Note that if c4 is a villager then SPF is much more likely to be a villager. This doesn't work in reverse, though.
I'd say Chloe is a wolf but I still think Tangrowth's posting was super super towny. I am not convinced. Her not talking about the situation at all could be explained by her not being there. Which means I think it's NAI.
Why not anyone else?
Nutella - I really think she's just threadspewed at this point. And I've also heard she has a polarized meta, so I trust that. And I've vibed with her posting multiple times throughout the game.
Dizzy - Doesn't treat Gavial like that as a wolf. Doesn't play the same idgaf way like his partner KZA does; Dizzy entered the thread claiming wolf. KBA entered the thread openly shitposting. I don't think two wolves do this, then proceed not to interact with each other, etc. it doesn't make much sense.
Marl - I think his reactions, of all people's, are the towniest here. If he's a wolf pushing agenda and I'm getting snowed, well done. I really think his posts here don't come from a wolf POV. His progression tracks when you assume "villager who feels betrayed and gets tunneled."
Arete - Locking this as V. I am not bothering to explain any further, Arete is just town.
Amy - Tracker.
Sunbae - JK unless CC'd. The only person who could CC this at this point is Chloe I think. In which case, lmao.
