Death Note Mafia [END]

[Long Con]

Hey, it's Mr Low-Poster-Under-The-Radar Long Con, here to post something. I cannot deny that I haven't given everyone much of anything to use to read me. My posts are few, but I have tried to analyze what I could in them. I don't even know what I'm going to post here, a lot of suspicions sound like they're pretty good, but then someone comes in with a counterpoint and I'm not so sure anymore. Like Snowman. That oft-quoted line about suspicions coalescing seems like a really good basis for a suspicion, and some of his posts could be seen as bad. Then someone recently mentioned that it's only his second game, and his first game was Donner Party, which was as far from a regular game of Mafia as I have seen.

With an experienced player, I would be all over the earlier suspicious comments, but a brand new player... in a game like this where conversation has been so plentiful?

One of the severe limiting factors in this game is that the baddies don't, for the most part, have any BTSC or any idea who each other are. That takes away the leads that come from baddies distancing from or defending teammates. The baddies are mostly in the dark, like Civvies usually are. So that's a LOT of potential case-making that simply can't happen. I'll post now, and start writing a post again to try and analyze some stuff.

[Long Con]

A lot of players right now don't even have "motives". Even the two baddie teams (or the baddie team and the independent team?) don't really have a clear goal... the red team has to eliminate detectives, but they all want to appear to the thread as detectives, so it's very easy for a red team member to go hard with a case against another red, thinking they're getting a detective, wanting the thread to think they're going after a baddie, and really having no idea what the reality actually is.

For all we know, the best case-makers are all red, and they will be awesomely convincing and get us to lynch their teammates, while the Civvies sit back and lay low while it happens. It could be! That's so backwards! Maybe you want to accuse me of some sort of manipulation by suggesting that, but even if I were red, how would I know?

I just looked back at the roles to see if I missed anything and another thing that is a major part of the game is the receiving of Death Notes... a major part of the game that we cannot use for anything because we don't know what the deal is, how they get received, when this happens, if there's an element of chance or skill to get them...

So if people are mostly individuals, their biggest motivation is going to be personal survival. A Detective, trying to survive long enough to somehow catch a Kira, will want to be really careful about what he says, so as not to attract too much suspicion... unless he wants to try and be extra-outspoken, to both attract suspicion AND seem like a useful player to have around. Wait, no, I just described how a baddie would probably want to play. See?

After talking this out with myself, I find myself on boo's side of lynching low-posters... at least until some game elements coalesce into something more tangible. Hoping that will happen. Also, I tend to agree with his other points about low posters. I don't think it's an acceptable tactic to specifically not post so as to make it to a later part of the game, knowing that people won't vote for them.

Then again, I'm pretty sure I'M a low poster in this game, so there's that as well. I don't want to be lynched.

If you read all my thoughts here, and you have a different opinion on how to get a more solid handle on this game, then I'm all ears. There must be something more we can use, and it's not currently what we'd use in a regular Mafia game, where baddies have BTSC.

[boo]

@MP: Are the roles that have had secrets revealed the full role (meaning the description for them is what the player received in their PM from you at the start of the game), or is there/could there be more?

[Tangrowth]

@MP: Are the roles that have had secrets revealed the full role (meaning the description for them is what the player received in their PM from you at the start of the game), or is there/could there be more?

In terms of role descriptions, yes, the secrets revealed equate to the PM sent.

If a role had a separate win condition accompanying that role description, no, those are not revealed.

[Ricochet]

I'm curious to hear as to why Snowman's experience level would change the tone, content, meaning and whatever else of his posts here. I'm genuinely open to counter-arguments - not least from Snowman himself, of course - especially given that I'm new myself (but at the same time I see myself as giving my equal best in all my games so far ). What Epignosis pointed out, I think, was that he was quite the active and astute newbie to being with, compared to which his style here can indeed be less involved, but it can equally be a choice or tactic put into execution. Not to mention that another player in equal status with him - Zomberella - was almost voted by a more experienced player on her first day, plus is on several other players top lists for her D1 behaviour.

[boo]

Ok, thanks. So the X Kira very strict, daily schedule, which has nothing to do with what was revealed in his role, is just entirely flavour then unless he has a different win condition then what is stated for the team.

[Turnip Head]

For no reason at all other than I had the time to do it, I made a purely subjective listing of all the players in the game and organized it into what sort of role they all are playing in the thread. The roles are "Case Maker" (a player who makes cases against and lobbies heavily for lynching their suspects), "Thinker" (a player who considers others' opinions and POVs, and reacts to Case Makers), "Natural Suspect" (a player whose behavior is deemed overtly suspicious, and this fact has contributed to their gameplay in a meaningful way), and "Elusive" (a player who makes no effort to be recognized for their gameplay). Players may be in more than one category. I have also ranked players according to how much each has contributed to the role, from greatest or most substantial contributions to least. Ranking takes into account a player's post count as well as the content of those posts, as determined by me. I have also included myself in these rankings, to further exemplify that this is completely subjective.

Case Makers
1. DharmaHelper
2. Epignosis
3. boo
4. AceofSpaces
5. birdwithteeth11
6. FZ
7. thellama73

Thinkers
1. bea
2. juliets
3. FZ.
4. S~V~S
5. Ricochet
6. thellama73
7. MetalMarsh89
8. DharmaHelper
9. boo
10. Zomberella12
11. Turnip Head
12. Elohcin
13. Black Rock
14. Epignosis
15. Matahari
16. Long Con
79. Spacedaisy
18. AceofSpaces
19. birdwithteeth11
20. Bass_the_clever
21. Made
22. Boomslang
23. Snowman
24. Russtifinko
25. Roxy/Zeek (not enough data tbh)
26. Disgruntled Porcupine

Elusive
1. DisgruntledPorcupine - general lack of participation
2. Russtifinko - unwilling to talk about his silence
3. Turnip Head - a degree of unwillingness to explain his votes
4. Epignosis - a degree of unwillingness to explain his non-vote for Russ

[Turnip Head]

I forgot to mention that I consolidated the "Natural Suspect" and "Elusive" categories into one, because as I was building my list I realized they were somewhat similar.

Also, as you can see I labeled everybody a Thinker, because everyone has expressed thought at some point. They are still ranked according to overall contribution (according to me).

[DharmaHelper]

I forgot to mention that I consolidated the "Natural Suspect" and "Elusive" categories into one, because as I was building my list I realized they were somewhat similar.

Also, as you can see I labeled everybody a Thinker, because everyone has expressed thought at some point. They are still ranked according to overall contribution (according to me).

How generous of you to exclude yourself from the top 10.

[Turnip Head]

If anyone has any criticisms for the list, or any suggested changes/additions/exclusions, please address your concerns to Turnip Head.

[Ricochet]

By the way, TH, your avatar doesn't load anymore in my browser. I think yours is the only avatar not loading.

[bea]

At the risk of sounding even more not in the midst of things "like you expect FZ", what has been revealed, and what is everyone talking about when asking about Epi and the eye?

To conclude, because this is a long post:
1. She's using other's suspicions not giving anything of her own.
2. Her reasoning for going after me are the same as what she's accused me of doing, not to mention she keeps saying how I supposedly play, yet she's never seen me as a baddie.
3. She's asking a lot of questions but not saying anything conclusive apart from her "gut feeling" about me. It's like she seems right in the middle of things, but it feels not genuine

1) Yup. I do that a lot. Because I'm not the world's greatest case maker. I often spend the first few days of a new game reading and asking questions and pointing out what I agree with because it helps me find my footing and helps me to try to figure out who I trust. Excepting that game on K-site, where I was the info role, have you ever seen me be the sort of player that builds cases or agressively go after people.
2) I agreed with svs that your suspicion of zombra was odd because you were doing the same thing and she was a new player. Yup. I did that too. I am saying that I expect to see different things from you based on past behavior and I'm not seeing all those things. You were totes right that Tricey was looking other places. Yup I agreed with that. I did not agree with zombra and your suspicion of me kinda feels like a No U. I'm used to a different sort of FZ. I could be wrong, you could be civ in this game too - but your behavior here feels different from how it did at the beginning of the champions game when I was pretty positive by this time in the game you were civ.
3) Yup. I ask a lot of questions. I recall in the Champs game that it made you pretty sure I was civ. What changed your mind between here and there? How do I feel "less genuine" in this game?

[Turnip Head]

By the way, TH, your avatar doesn't load anymore in my browser. I think yours is the only avatar not loading.

Yeah I noticed it was having a problem, I have a new one now

[boo]

I'm curious to hear as to why Snowman's experience level would change the tone, content, meaning and whatever else of his posts here. I'm genuinely open to counter-arguments - not least from Snowman himself, of course - especially given that I'm new myself (but at the same time I see myself as giving my equal best in all my games so far ). What Epignosis pointed out, I think, was that he was quite the active and astute newbie to being with, compared to which his style here can indeed be less involved, but it can equally be a choice or tactic put into execution. Not to mention that another player in equal status with him - Zomberella - was almost voted by a more experienced player on her first day, plus is on several other players top lists for her D1 behaviour.

BTSC, if he's only played when he's had it, that for me pretty much entirely explains why he would be more withdrawn.

Outside of that, it's the "I'm happy to see so many involved, but how do you find so much to talk about when literally nothing has happened yet? The most earth-shattering event so far is the realization that Russ hasn't posted anything." line from him that people seem so up in arms about. That doesn't read baddie to me, that reads like a genuine question from someone who isn't really sure how to go about finding every little thing someone says suspicious and able to discuss in that way.

Then the bandwagon comment? There are veteran players who say (and honestly mean it) stuff like that and take less flak for it. There are plenty of players who don't say it but who it's obviously true of who take less flak for it. It is the kind of honesty Snowman should probably learn to keep in check, because nobody likes it even if we all know there are people who decide pretty much every D1 vote in the same way, but it isn't the kind of honesty I look at and see a baddie blunder.

I'm also not even sure he understands what we mean when we use the term bandwagon, because when llama called him out on it (asking "Waiting for a bandwagon to hop onto?"), his response was, "If the right wagon comes along, sure! has your wagon already been through all nine pages that follow his post?"). That just makes me think he thinks a bandwagon is any suspicion he agrees with and decides to vote on, not a suspicion he's ambivalent about but doesn't care enough to really think through where to place his vote.

So... would I like to see more from Snowman? Yes. But even if he wasn't a new player I would find the arguments for lynching him to be some serious grasping at straws. As it is... I have to question the motivation of people who want to lynch him, because I think many of them are the ones looking to bandwagon.

and there's a bunch of linki

[DharmaHelper]

For those who cannot see TH's avatar

[Black Rock]

Questions on snowman:

1) Isn't he new?
2) Didn't everyone in Donner have BTSC?

Because if it's yes to both, a change up in how he's playing in this game isn't surprising at all.

Exactly. I don't understand this suspicion of Snowman at all. This is his second game and this is first game where regular mafia game play is actually present. Even Zombarella (which is in the same boat) posted something somewhere about how she now got it. She thought civ BTSC was norm and I see no reason to expect nothing but change in his game play from the game to this one. I suspect the suspicion. I think some seasoned mafiaites are seeing an easy target.

[Black Rock]

For those who cannot see TH's avatar

I see TH's avatar and it is not that.

[Turnip Head]

Which seasoned mafiaites would that be, BR?

[Black Rock]

Which seasoned mafiaites would that be, BR?

Llama for one and to see anyone else I would have to look. Unfortunately when you are constantly playing catch up the posts meld together and it's hard to remember who posted what. Llama caught my eye the most though.

[DharmaHelper]

For those who cannot see TH's avatar

I see TH's avatar and it is not that.

Well, my powers of deduction conclude that BR has indeed not kept up with the thread discussion.

[Black Rock]

For those who cannot see TH's avatar

I see TH's avatar and it is not that.

Well, my powers of deduction conclude that BR has indeed not kept up with the thread discussion.

oh. Did I lame by missing some sort of thing that is cool and I can never get?

[Black Rock]

For those who cannot see TH's avatar

I see TH's avatar and it is not that.

Well, my powers of deduction conclude that BR has indeed not kept up with the thread discussion.

oh. Did I lame by missing some sort of thing that is cool and I can never get?

I did notice Epig at one point had an avatar telling you to FO though.

[DharmaHelper]

The avatar I linked was mine for a short time. The joke being my resilience in trying to get Epi to answer the pictured question

[boo]

Doing more reading of people.

35 minutes left and 15 missing votes

Welcome to my hell.

I feel like the game is in a Mexican standoff right now... So guess I'll be among the first to shoot. I think there's a lot of information that came out of the Trice/Ace exchange, most of which showed Trice to be self-contradictory and a bit flustered. I'm not reading a genuine defense in those posts, so I'm going to add my vote.

linki w/Rico: I feel the same way about Russ, but I feel a little less forgiving toward TH. Hopefully Russ posts tomorrow and can give some good intel. Also skeptical of FZ; Snowman's few posts suggest a lack of involvement with the game, which hasn't yet made itself clear to me as ignorance or malice.

Boomslang doesn't have many posts and lots of them are jokey, and this one pretty much sums up what I have to say anyways. But take a minute and read over him.

Before voting for Trice, Boomslang had had some minor suspicion of him that he voiced, but in a post after that it had sounded like he thought Trice and Ace were both just to much into it and that at this point he didn't seem all that suspicious of either of them. That is this post:

Caught up, but I don't feel there's a niche anywhere in conversation for me to fill as of yet.
I agree with SVS, while I did read the entirety of DH v Epi and Ace v Trice, I think it would help me during a reread if i knew where the arguments were going while reading. Personally, I feel like DH and Trice are arguing past each other on the "Good" remark, so if a third party could reframe that, both for my own understanding, and the mutual understanding of Dh and Trice, that'd be awesome.

Not a ping, but honestly, I expected Llama to take a bigger role in conversation thus far.

Epi, You said that ace is normally a quiet player, having never played with him, can you elaborate further?

also, play style reads on DP, Meta, Zomba, Boo, Trice, and Snowman would be nice if someone would like to offer them.

As far as I understand, the "good" remark is in reference to what Trice said about the L/Light lynch option, in reference to Ace's analysis of the options. DH read Ace's analysis as saying it would be more logical for the baddies to pick the normal lynch, while Trice read Ace's analysis to say the lynch option would be the one civilians would pick. Trice then argued that the two interpretations were identical. I think DH is splitting some unnecessary hairs here, but I don't think Ace's language marks him as bad.

Then he does a bit of discussing a variety of things (mostly Snowman and FZ), a bit of joking, and then we get to the voting post.

Now, problem number one. I have no idea why he thought it was a mexican standoff. Trice already had 5 votes, the next highest voter finished the lynch with 3, and Boomslang knew he was about to widen the gap and bring Trice to 6 votes. So... how can he claim to the first to shoot? It... makes no sense. He gives a little bit to explain his vote, and does so.

The voting post (ignoring his linki bit that is directed at Rico that is just going back to his discussion about other people) is just him bandwagoning onto Trice, while phrasing it in a way that tries to make it sound like he's some sort of decision maker who is leading the charge, not someone piling on another vote for someone who already has the lead, is taking a clear lead because of his vote, with the lynch only having (less than) 35 minutes left.

Since then, we got one post from him during N1, and nothing today.

[Turnip Head]

Has the silence bug hit Boomslang?

[Long Con]

I'm curious to hear as to why Snowman's experience level would change the tone, content, meaning and whatever else of his posts here. I'm genuinely open to counter-arguments - not least from Snowman himself, of course - especially given that I'm new myself (but at the same time I see myself as giving my equal best in all my games so far ). What Epignosis pointed out, I think, was that he was quite the active and astute newbie to being with, compared to which his style here can indeed be less involved, but it can equally be a choice or tactic put into execution. Not to mention that another player in equal status with him - Zomberella - was almost voted by a more experienced player on her first day, plus is on several other players top lists for her D1 behaviour.

BTSC, if he's only played when he's had it, that for me pretty much entirely explains why he would be more withdrawn.

Outside of that, it's the "I'm happy to see so many involved, but how do you find so much to talk about when literally nothing has happened yet? The most earth-shattering event so far is the realization that Russ hasn't posted anything." line from him that people seem so up in arms about. That doesn't read baddie to me, that reads like a genuine question from someone who isn't really sure how to go about finding every little thing someone says suspicious and able to discuss in that way.

Then the bandwagon comment? There are veteran players who say (and honestly mean it) stuff like that and take less flak for it. There are plenty of players who don't say it but who it's obviously true of who take less flak for it. It is the kind of honesty Snowman should probably learn to keep in check, because nobody likes it even if we all know there are people who decide pretty much every D1 vote in the same way, but it isn't the kind of honesty I look at and see a baddie blunder.

I'm also not even sure he understands what we mean when we use the term bandwagon, because when llama called him out on it (asking "Waiting for a bandwagon to hop onto?"), his response was, "If the right wagon comes along, sure! has your wagon already been through all nine pages that follow his post?"). That just makes me think he thinks a bandwagon is any suspicion he agrees with and decides to vote on, not a suspicion he's ambivalent about but doesn't care enough to really think through where to place his vote.

So... would I like to see more from Snowman? Yes. But even if he wasn't a new player I would find the arguments for lynching him to be some serious grasping at straws. As it is... I have to question the motivation of people who want to lynch him, because I think many of them are the ones looking to bandwagon.

and there's a bunch of linki

This guy makes me agree so much that I'm starting to suspect it's a baddie ploy!

[boo]

Has the silence bug hit Boomslang?

He isn't the only person who hasn't posted today.

I just finished reading over Made (he stopped posting D1 and didn't even vote), for example. I don't really have anything to say about my read of him. He was everywhere with somewhere new every post, there were inconsistencies I didn't really get but I'm pretty sure were intentional. I dunno. I'm guessing he's just weird.

[Turnip Head]

Made can be pretty kooky, but he's usually not this quiet.

[boo]

We also haven't seen posts from bass, DP, or zeek. So 5 total possible silences.

[Turnip Head]

I've seen DP on the site. In fact, I see him viewing the thread right this very minute.

[boo]

Your silence (for you), makes me consider the same thing LC. :P The fact that it's both you and BR just adds to it or makes me think you guys are just busy right now. But neither of you have actually played that card. I wonder if lynching one of you would draw the other out more?

[Black Rock]

We also haven't seen posts from bass, DP, or zeek. So 5 total possible silences.

Well my great skills at a mafia detective tell me that they can't all be silenced.

[boo]

I've seen DP on the site. In fact, I see him viewing the thread right this very minute.

Yup, of the 5, those last three don't strike me as being silent because they were actually silenced (we already know bass won't be around much, zeek said he wouldn't be when he last posted, and DP is DP), just went over the player list and figured having them all mentioned would be helpful.

[Long Con]

Your silence (for you), makes me consider the same thing LC. :P The fact that it's both you and BR just adds to it or makes me think you guys are just busy right now. But neither of you have actually played that card. I wonder if lynching one of you would draw the other out more?

Take her! Take her! I'll post more!

[DisgruntledPorcupine]

I've seen DP on the site. In fact, I see him viewing the thread right this very minute.

I'm here. I've had my browser open with the page up but I'm not really reading at this moment because I'm working on a rather intense college assignment.

[bea]

zeek posted when he was annouced - was that before or after the NP?

Linkie -lol - I was going to start today by saying LC fit that "people you expect to be more vocal but could be hiding in the wings for nefarious reasons." I went back and re-read his posts though and they do feel like they are trying to contribute while falling behind in the thread. IDK yet with him, but the thought has crossed my mind.

[Turnip Head]

I've seen DP on the site. In fact, I see him viewing the thread right this very minute.

I'm here. I've had my browser open with the page up but I'm not really reading at this moment because I'm working on a rather intense college assignment.

Then how did you see your name mentioned so quickly?

[Black Rock]

I've seen DP on the site. In fact, I see him viewing the thread right this very minute.

Yup, of the 5, those last three don't strike me as being silent because they were actually silenced (we already know bass won't be around much, zeek said he wouldn't be when he last posted, and DP is DP), just went over the player list and figured having them all mentioned would be helpful.

Normal life, just can't be on here all day. When i do get here I spend most of my time catching up. I always feel disconnected when I miss so much. Considering I didn't even post till after day one started I feel like I have put in some effort to be here and almost know everything going on.

Your silence (for you), makes me consider the same thing LC. :P The fact that it's both you and BR just adds to it or makes me think you guys are just busy right now. But neither of you have actually played that card. I wonder if lynching one of you would draw the other out more?

Take her! Take her! I'll post more!

You I will deal with later.

[DisgruntledPorcupine]

I've seen DP on the site. In fact, I see him viewing the thread right this very minute.

I'm here. I've had my browser open with the page up but I'm not really reading at this moment because I'm working on a rather intense college assignment.

Then how did you see your name mentioned so quickly?

Good timing, and I'm refreshing and skimming on occasion because my brain needs rest time.

[Turnip Head]

Any quick thoughts from your skimmings?

[thellama73]

Questions on snowman:

1) Isn't he new?
2) Didn't everyone in Donner have BTSC?

Because if it's yes to both, a change up in how he's playing in this game isn't surprising at all.

I just re-read snowman and my comment was going to be "isn't anyone who suspects him bothered by the fact that he is brand new?". He did make that coalescing comment and even said he would hop on a bandwagon if the right one came along which doesn't look good, but he's new. Maybe I'm missing something.

Is it impossible for new people to be assigned baddie roles? That's news to me.

[Turnip Head]

You know nothing, Llama Seventy-Three.

[juliets]

Questions on snowman:

1) Isn't he new?
2) Didn't everyone in Donner have BTSC?

Because if it's yes to both, a change up in how he's playing in this game isn't surprising at all.

I just re-read snowman and my comment was going to be "isn't anyone who suspects him bothered by the fact that he is brand new?". He did make that coalescing comment and even said he would hop on a bandwagon if the right one came along which doesn't look good, but he's new. Maybe I'm missing something.

Is it impossible for new people to be assigned baddie roles? That's news to me.

No not at all. But he could easily be a civ who is not being coached. Wouldn't his baddie teammates have explained to him what bandwagon means?

[Turnip Head]

What if he's a baddie who doesn't have any teammates? This is one game where brand new baddies might not get the luxury of coaching.

[juliets]

What if he's a baddie who doesn't have any teammates? This is one game where brand new baddies might not get the luxury of coaching.

Yes that is true TH and I momentarily forgot about them not having full btsc.

[thellama73]

Questions on snowman:

1) Isn't he new?
2) Didn't everyone in Donner have BTSC?

Because if it's yes to both, a change up in how he's playing in this game isn't surprising at all.

I just re-read snowman and my comment was going to be "isn't anyone who suspects him bothered by the fact that he is brand new?". He did make that coalescing comment and even said he would hop on a bandwagon if the right one came along which doesn't look good, but he's new. Maybe I'm missing something.

Is it impossible for new people to be assigned baddie roles? That's news to me.

No not at all. But he could easily be a civ who is not being coached. Wouldn't his baddie teammates have explained to him what bandwagon means?

He has already been in another game with extensive BTSC. I'm confident he knows what it means.

[juliets]

Ok but his comments on it as boo points out makes it sound like he doesn't know what it is. All I'm saying is we could be seeing newness and not baddieness but I don't know the guy outside of this game - I didn't play Donner - so I'm just giving an opinion based strictly on this thread.

[Long Con]

I think people generally put too much stock in the idea of someone newer being "coached" in the thread. In my experience, it rarely happens. To suggest that Snowman is NOT in BTSC because of the lack of coaching on "bandwagon" is not something I would ever consider a reasonable assumption. Even if he had BTSC, I doubt that he would run everything he says through the chat before he posts it.

[DharmaHelper]

I think people generally put too much stock in the idea of someone newer being "coached" in the thread. In my experience, it rarely happens. To suggest that Snowman is NOT in BTSC because of the lack of coaching on "bandwagon" is not something I would ever consider a reasonable assumption. Even if he had BTSC, I doubt that he would run everything he says through the chat before he posts it.

WANTON SPECULATIONS

[bea]

I like your use of waton there. Makes the whole thing sound lewd and dirty.