[END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
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- Uomini D'onore (Man of Honor)
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Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
RIP Fuzz
So is Drugs dead? They had N10, could have drugged someone and yet Drugs didn't made the kill, implying there was no drugged person to kill...ergo no Drugs alive?
Also, despite the fortunate failed second kill, I am reaching maximum pissed off mood in principle in regards to Psycho Killer being able to kill twice, then once, then twice and so on, at this bloody stage in the game. As I've said back on D11, it's a maximum of three victims during an interval in which we civvies can only aspire to lynch one baddie. Extend that N9 through N11 and Psycho Killer's maximum would have been six victims, whilst our maximum would have been two. Abominable.
So is Drugs dead? They had N10, could have drugged someone and yet Drugs didn't made the kill, implying there was no drugged person to kill...ergo no Drugs alive?
Also, despite the fortunate failed second kill, I am reaching maximum pissed off mood in principle in regards to Psycho Killer being able to kill twice, then once, then twice and so on, at this bloody stage in the game. As I've said back on D11, it's a maximum of three victims during an interval in which we civvies can only aspire to lynch one baddie. Extend that N9 through N11 and Psycho Killer's maximum would have been six victims, whilst our maximum would have been two. Abominable.
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Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Actually derp on math, PK's maximum would have been five*
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Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
No one's missing from the poll. River either abstained or he's gone.
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Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Very good chance Marsh is bad. Will expand later. #legacyofstrawhenge
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Re: [NIGHT 11] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Thanks, all! I'm very very excited.
Yeah, you're right on that. I'm not ignoring those points, but they've already been discussed. I do best finding baddies through players' gameplay, so I'm adding my thoughts to that discussion.Metalmarsh89 wrote:The case against him has been about things that other people have said (MacDougall mainly), not what he's said.Russtifinko wrote:So I went back to read Wilgy expecting to basically see a whole lot of nothing. My gut read of him said it was a guy who tried really hard to start the game (see: ACEO campaign) and has been dropping off steadily since. I was pleasantly surprised, though. He's contributed a lot more substantive content than I thought.
I do see a few points against him, most of which have been brought up already:
- As Diiny mentioned (yesterday?), he has been fairly floppy floppy on RadicalFuzz, even though they read each other well.
- He was mentioned a lot by baddies (JJJ covered this in his scum spew analysis).
- He has posted large graphs and charts with little analysis to accompany them. (A number of people have discussed this already.)
Things I personally don't like are his declining contributions the past Day period or two, and the fact that he keeps asking people to infodump. I'm given to understand that info is cool on RYM, but RadicalFuzz has said that Wilgy knows the rules here. He seems determined to stretch them to their limit.
I actually feel moderately positive on Wilgy now, despite the shade he's getting. I don't really see him as a super likely SK either, since he's taken enough hard stances (Choutas and bcornett) to get some negative attention.
That is what I have gathered.
Wilgy, come on. You have reads on 3 of 9 possible players, two of whom are dead now, so your only remaining read is that JJJ is the SK? You say you're trying, but I find it hard to buy when I read this drivel.DrWilgy wrote:That wasn't a scumdoodle placement. The formatting was a garbo mobile attempt though.RadicalFuzz wrote:Wilgy if you think I'm scum why did you save me? You had an emphatic defense of me. Why?
JJJ
Bullzeye
Fuzz
Everyone else I haven't had time to look into recently, nor do I have any strong opinion.
Ugh I wish you wren't dead! If you can't read Wilgy that well, why go after him relatively hard for such a long period? You had to have seen something to be that confident.RadicalFuzz wrote:I am confused as to how serious this is, but I'll attempt to answer it.Diiny wrote:How do you know it's a misconception?????
I know it's a misconception because I know that I don't necessarily read Wilgy that well and have said as much. Other people are saying that I do read Wilgy extremely well. That's not true, therefore a misconception? It's wrong, either way, is my point. We play off each other very well, yes, but interestingly enough that doesn't include the ability to read him, at least from my end.
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Re: [NIGHT 11] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Or possibly because he's on a team with motel room....Metalmarsh89 wrote:Because I'm terrible.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Marsh your last two final votes are just abysmal, why tho?
Seriously, though, is no one at all interested in this? I feel like I've been playing pretty hard the past few days, posting detailed reads and what I felt was a really compelling, in-depth case with this, and I'm just not being engaged on it at all.
What can I do to make you care? Has the analysis just moved so far on that analyzing player behavior is out and I'm just not with the times? Am I presenting my stuff in a way that isn't interesting or convincing? Or is there just a lack of interest in what I say generally?
I'm trying to help but feel like I'm not getting anything done with my posts.
Will analyze Diiny now because I promised I would.
Linki: Oh, JJJ? Interested to hear your thoughts on MM.
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Re: [DAY 11] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
what? Like, I think I know what you're suggesting but I want you type it out and think how dopey it sounds.Russtifinko wrote:"woken" up, as opposed to "woke"? Who woke you?motel room wrote:woken up specifically on my day off for this.
So I'm on a team with metalmarsh but we both voted the complete opposite ways last two days? Why?Russtifinko wrote:Or possibly because he's on a team with motel room....Metalmarsh89 wrote:Because I'm terrible.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Marsh your last two final votes are just abysmal, why tho?
Seriously, though, is no one at all interested in this? I feel like I've been playing pretty hard the past few days, posting detailed reads and what I felt was a really compelling, in-depth case with this, and I'm just not being engaged on it at all.
What can I do to make you care? Has the analysis just moved so far on that analyzing player behavior is out and I'm just not with the times? Am I presenting my stuff in a way that isn't interesting or convincing? Or is there just a lack of interest in what I say generally?
I'm trying to help but feel like I'm not getting anything done with my posts.
Will analyze Diiny now because I promised I would.
Linki: Oh, JJJ? Interested to hear your thoughts on MM.
Your one complaint against me that you're driving into the ground is wrong I dont get why you're so fucking adamant against what I said, and if you're genuine (which I guess I'm thinking more and more that you might be cos your frustration seems legit) maybe consider more than just that point cos if you start building team theories around me that shit will not work because I'm just some town guy who said what crossed his mind regarding jjj at that point in time.
And good luck with your proposal.
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Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Anyway, Diiny read: I was surprised that Wilgy had posted more content than I thought, but this Diiny read surprised me even more. I suppose by this point, everyone alive has posted valuable stuff. I previously had Diiny as a strong SK candidate, but now I very much doubt it. I had missed that he was so aggressive starting on Day 1, and a complete read through gives me the sense that he's been stylistically consistent throughout the game. His contribution level has risen and fallen with rl stuff, but he's pretty much stuck to the same tone all game long, and the fact that it's a somewhat confrontational one makes me doubt the SK read.
I'm also not seeing many interactions of any kind with baddies. Not sure if that's a point for or against Diiny, but it at least doesn't trip any alarms for me.
I wouldn't vote for Diiny today.
Linki: motel, my complaint isn't wrong. Lynching civs is not ever a good idea. However, your point is taken: I owe you a case. I'll get it out later tonight. Regarding your point on MM and you voting different ways, it's WIFOM. Seems silly to save teammates just to have everyone figure out that you all voted together and lynch you sequentially.
Thanks!
I'm also not seeing many interactions of any kind with baddies. Not sure if that's a point for or against Diiny, but it at least doesn't trip any alarms for me.
I wouldn't vote for Diiny today.
Linki: motel, my complaint isn't wrong. Lynching civs is not ever a good idea. However, your point is taken: I owe you a case. I'll get it out later tonight. Regarding your point on MM and you voting different ways, it's WIFOM. Seems silly to save teammates just to have everyone figure out that you all voted together and lynch you sequentially.
Thanks!
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Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Well just get ready to be disappointed. I'm probably not changing your mind.
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Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
anti town getting styled on. Catching up etc.
Wilgy for now. I really, really shouldn't have to prod you any more to address those issues raised a good few pages back.
Wilgy for now. I really, really shouldn't have to prod you any more to address those issues raised a good few pages back.
"I'm not 100% sure that Diiny isn't the last scum playing the best scum game of anyone's career " --Job "sleepystalinist" May
"The serial killer has made it clear that he doesn't want to win this game at all and is instead interested in killing town reads exclusively. Whoever he is, he has no idea what he's doing and is probably going to blow the game for himself." --JaggedJimmyJay
"The serial killer has made it clear that he doesn't want to win this game at all and is instead interested in killing town reads exclusively. Whoever he is, he has no idea what he's doing and is probably going to blow the game for himself." --JaggedJimmyJay
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Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
I would also like to stacks-on Wilgy for now.
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Re: [NIGHT 11] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Few reasons. I thought they were both likely to be bad, and I didn't want to let the pressure fall off of Wilgy, plus the bullzeye vote was so far ahead I wasn't even concerned about where my vote was. You can see I was fully supportive of the bullzye lynch and questioned him and his wifom towards the end of the day.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I forgot to mention that Diiny's Day 11 final vote was for DrWilgy and not Bullzeye, so that could be a point of interest. Diiny, you should describe in the fullest detail what inspired that move.
Linki Keej, talk to me about Wilgy.
"I'm not 100% sure that Diiny isn't the last scum playing the best scum game of anyone's career " --Job "sleepystalinist" May
"The serial killer has made it clear that he doesn't want to win this game at all and is instead interested in killing town reads exclusively. Whoever he is, he has no idea what he's doing and is probably going to blow the game for himself." --JaggedJimmyJay
"The serial killer has made it clear that he doesn't want to win this game at all and is instead interested in killing town reads exclusively. Whoever he is, he has no idea what he's doing and is probably going to blow the game for himself." --JaggedJimmyJay
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Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
If you're town, it's your job to change his mind. Am I reading this too pessimistically if I'm getting 'I don't want to play anymore' vibes or are you just saying that a case of you won't change any of Russ's existing issues with you?motel room wrote:Well just get ready to be disappointed. I'm probably not changing your mind.
"I'm not 100% sure that Diiny isn't the last scum playing the best scum game of anyone's career " --Job "sleepystalinist" May
"The serial killer has made it clear that he doesn't want to win this game at all and is instead interested in killing town reads exclusively. Whoever he is, he has no idea what he's doing and is probably going to blow the game for himself." --JaggedJimmyJay
"The serial killer has made it clear that he doesn't want to win this game at all and is instead interested in killing town reads exclusively. Whoever he is, he has no idea what he's doing and is probably going to blow the game for himself." --JaggedJimmyJay
Spoiler: show
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Re: [DAY 11] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Why doesn't this reply have anything to do with the post you're replying to? The WIFOM is one thing but whatwhy, metalmarsh?Metalmarsh89 wrote:Oh damn, my vote for Choutas yesterday looks a lot worse now.RadicalFuzz wrote:I wasn't around then and haven't read it. My vote was more complex than a simple "He said X, X is scum talk, lynch him" so that's why I had exposition about my vote. Would you have preferred me gloss over my reasoning?motel room wrote:Fuzz, the posts I quoted were before and during you casting the vote. Like remember Long Con's eventual vote for Sig early on where he had to backpedal the Bea thing and find a more compelling reason to place his final vote? Reminds me of that. Too-heavy display of reasoning.
MM as I've said all game I have done scummy things. Soft defense of Mac, illogical reasons for not voting Floyd, I'm aware of this. There is no defense to what I did, simply put. What could I possibly say that would make me look better with those moves?
Now you can't accuse me of this because I've already admitted it. :P
Yes your Choutas vote looks bad. Your RadFuxx vote is suss too.
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Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
* RadFuzz lol
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Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Nah I'm not giving up defending myself in general, just to him cos my responses fall on deaf ears. I'm also thinking he's less scummy than when he started his crusade so my pushing back was more to see if he would fall apart.Diiny wrote:If you're town, it's your job to change his mind. Am I reading this too pessimistically if I'm getting 'I don't want to play anymore' vibes or are you just saying that a case of you won't change any of Russ's existing issues with you?motel room wrote:Well just get ready to be disappointed. I'm probably not changing your mind.
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Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Oh, cool. I was worried we were going to break a record for wifom
I think MM (whose name I read as Monster Munch every time when abbreviated like that) needs a good look, since I haven't taken one yet. I'm also not forgetting Rico's 'moment' yesterday, which pinged me a good amount.
I think MM (whose name I read as Monster Munch every time when abbreviated like that) needs a good look, since I haven't taken one yet. I'm also not forgetting Rico's 'moment' yesterday, which pinged me a good amount.
"I'm not 100% sure that Diiny isn't the last scum playing the best scum game of anyone's career " --Job "sleepystalinist" May
"The serial killer has made it clear that he doesn't want to win this game at all and is instead interested in killing town reads exclusively. Whoever he is, he has no idea what he's doing and is probably going to blow the game for himself." --JaggedJimmyJay
"The serial killer has made it clear that he doesn't want to win this game at all and is instead interested in killing town reads exclusively. Whoever he is, he has no idea what he's doing and is probably going to blow the game for himself." --JaggedJimmyJay
Spoiler: show
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Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Do talk to me about wilgy though.
"I'm not 100% sure that Diiny isn't the last scum playing the best scum game of anyone's career " --Job "sleepystalinist" May
"The serial killer has made it clear that he doesn't want to win this game at all and is instead interested in killing town reads exclusively. Whoever he is, he has no idea what he's doing and is probably going to blow the game for himself." --JaggedJimmyJay
"The serial killer has made it clear that he doesn't want to win this game at all and is instead interested in killing town reads exclusively. Whoever he is, he has no idea what he's doing and is probably going to blow the game for himself." --JaggedJimmyJay
Spoiler: show
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Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Or targeted fuzz?Ricochet wrote:No one's missing from the poll. River either abstained or he's gone.
"I'm not 100% sure that Diiny isn't the last scum playing the best scum game of anyone's career " --Job "sleepystalinist" May
"The serial killer has made it clear that he doesn't want to win this game at all and is instead interested in killing town reads exclusively. Whoever he is, he has no idea what he's doing and is probably going to blow the game for himself." --JaggedJimmyJay
"The serial killer has made it clear that he doesn't want to win this game at all and is instead interested in killing town reads exclusively. Whoever he is, he has no idea what he's doing and is probably going to blow the game for himself." --JaggedJimmyJay
Spoiler: show
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- Uomini D'onore (Man of Honor)
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Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Huh?Diiny wrote:Or targeted fuzz?Ricochet wrote:No one's missing from the poll. River either abstained or he's gone.
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Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Things I don't like:Diiny wrote:Do talk to me about wilgy though.
- the sense of him showing up only when needed, distanced
- his vote on Bullzeye being "for Choutas"
- Mac's push for Wilgy wagon back in the day
Things I do like:
- reading back through his posts some of his theories seem to immediately fall apart - i.e. Choutas and bcornett linked stuff then they die and he's wrong - which seems odd if he were the one pulling the trigger.
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Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Wilgy on bullzeye before today:
Calls him good in GTHs.
0 explanation on shift from this read offered at any time before his vote or even during his vote. No interaction with bullzeye. Nothing supports this vote. NOTHING.
Calls him good in GTHs.
0 explanation on shift from this read offered at any time before his vote or even during his vote. No interaction with bullzeye. Nothing supports this vote. NOTHING.
"I'm not 100% sure that Diiny isn't the last scum playing the best scum game of anyone's career " --Job "sleepystalinist" May
"The serial killer has made it clear that he doesn't want to win this game at all and is instead interested in killing town reads exclusively. Whoever he is, he has no idea what he's doing and is probably going to blow the game for himself." --JaggedJimmyJay
"The serial killer has made it clear that he doesn't want to win this game at all and is instead interested in killing town reads exclusively. Whoever he is, he has no idea what he's doing and is probably going to blow the game for himself." --JaggedJimmyJay
Spoiler: show
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Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Surely those theories could well be short-term plans to push his easy buttons?
"I'm not 100% sure that Diiny isn't the last scum playing the best scum game of anyone's career " --Job "sleepystalinist" May
"The serial killer has made it clear that he doesn't want to win this game at all and is instead interested in killing town reads exclusively. Whoever he is, he has no idea what he's doing and is probably going to blow the game for himself." --JaggedJimmyJay
"The serial killer has made it clear that he doesn't want to win this game at all and is instead interested in killing town reads exclusively. Whoever he is, he has no idea what he's doing and is probably going to blow the game for himself." --JaggedJimmyJay
Spoiler: show
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Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
He could've targeted fuzz to have been removed from the poll, but it didn't go through.Ricochet wrote:Huh?Diiny wrote:Or targeted fuzz?Ricochet wrote:No one's missing from the poll. River either abstained or he's gone.
"I'm not 100% sure that Diiny isn't the last scum playing the best scum game of anyone's career " --Job "sleepystalinist" May
"The serial killer has made it clear that he doesn't want to win this game at all and is instead interested in killing town reads exclusively. Whoever he is, he has no idea what he's doing and is probably going to blow the game for himself." --JaggedJimmyJay
"The serial killer has made it clear that he doesn't want to win this game at all and is instead interested in killing town reads exclusively. Whoever he is, he has no idea what he's doing and is probably going to blow the game for himself." --JaggedJimmyJay
Spoiler: show
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Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Ah. Not bad, actually, although it would require quite a decent amount of odds.Diiny wrote:He could've targeted fuzz to have been removed from the poll, but it didn't go through.Ricochet wrote:Huh?Diiny wrote:Or targeted fuzz?Ricochet wrote:No one's missing from the poll. River either abstained or he's gone.
It would also make it encouraging to believe one of the two killers was blocked by him.
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Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Not sure I understand the positive here, could you perhaps rephrase or clarify?motel room wrote:Things I don't like:Diiny wrote:Do talk to me about wilgy though.
- the sense of him showing up only when needed, distanced
- his vote on Bullzeye being "for Choutas"
- Mac's push for Wilgy wagon back in the day
Things I do like:
- reading back through his posts some of his theories seem to immediately fall apart - i.e. Choutas and bcornett linked stuff then they die and he's wrong - which seems odd if he were the one pulling the trigger.
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Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Russ I don't mean to be ignorant of your case against motel room. I understand your suspicion of him, it isn't hard to compile evidence against him (the case looks a lot like a case against me is likely to look. When I did my spew review for him (I think on Day 10), it eased some of my concerns. I'd ask that you find that review and take a look -- you can show me where you disagree. I want to discuss your read on motel room further, but I think this is a necessary starting point.
I can't easily reference it myself on my phone.
I can't easily reference it myself on my phone.
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Re: [DAY 1] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Case on motel room (summary first because I decided that's easiest):
My basic points are this:
1) He said it was ok to lynch civs for no reason. ("We know, Russti! Chirssakes shut up about that already!" "Ok, sorry guys, got it. Moving on...")
2) He's had very interesting interactions with the baddies we've gotten. Now I admit, it's far from certain LC was bussed. But if he did ask his team to bus him for credit, who stood to gain more than the guy who put the first vote on him, and then switched off and back on again when it mattered? However, even if you can't buy that, I'll show that motel room said he'd develop a read on BR and never did, defended Mac, and very very softly and consistently defended Floyd. "But he pushed hard for Bullzeye!", you say. Oh, you mean the Bullzeye who decided he didn't want to play any more and asked to be out? I'm saying he went hard after two people who asked to be killed, ignored an inactive teammate, and defended two others very consistently, albeit in different ways.
3) His reactions to points raised against him have, the majority of the time (although to be fair, not all the time), been to dismiss, ridicule, or NO U his case makers, primarily Matt F, sig, and myself.
4) MM's vote two day periods ago killed Choutas, the only confirmed civvie (and, I would argue, the only civvie) on the block that day. It also saved motel from a 1/3 chance of dying (assuming MP randomizes ties, as he has done in the past). You might say this is far-fetched, but keep in mind that there were 11 players alive at this point. As JJJ said, the worst case for us there is 7-3-1, with their kill coming up and at least one from the SK, so that lynch was absolutely huge.
The next day, he asked MM about it, but didn't apply any real pressure or follow up. Then yesterday, MM spent all day trying to get Fuzz dead instead of Bullz. My suspicion is that Fuzz was drugged, and that if even a single civ had joined him, motel would've hopped on and they'd have taken their chances with the SK, knowing the civs were done.
I want to keep this by itself, but post support (lots of it, sorry) coming.
My basic points are this:
1) He said it was ok to lynch civs for no reason. ("We know, Russti! Chirssakes shut up about that already!" "Ok, sorry guys, got it. Moving on...")
2) He's had very interesting interactions with the baddies we've gotten. Now I admit, it's far from certain LC was bussed. But if he did ask his team to bus him for credit, who stood to gain more than the guy who put the first vote on him, and then switched off and back on again when it mattered? However, even if you can't buy that, I'll show that motel room said he'd develop a read on BR and never did, defended Mac, and very very softly and consistently defended Floyd. "But he pushed hard for Bullzeye!", you say. Oh, you mean the Bullzeye who decided he didn't want to play any more and asked to be out? I'm saying he went hard after two people who asked to be killed, ignored an inactive teammate, and defended two others very consistently, albeit in different ways.
3) His reactions to points raised against him have, the majority of the time (although to be fair, not all the time), been to dismiss, ridicule, or NO U his case makers, primarily Matt F, sig, and myself.
4) MM's vote two day periods ago killed Choutas, the only confirmed civvie (and, I would argue, the only civvie) on the block that day. It also saved motel from a 1/3 chance of dying (assuming MP randomizes ties, as he has done in the past). You might say this is far-fetched, but keep in mind that there were 11 players alive at this point. As JJJ said, the worst case for us there is 7-3-1, with their kill coming up and at least one from the SK, so that lynch was absolutely huge.
The next day, he asked MM about it, but didn't apply any real pressure or follow up. Then yesterday, MM spent all day trying to get Fuzz dead instead of Bullz. My suspicion is that Fuzz was drugged, and that if even a single civ had joined him, motel would've hopped on and they'd have taken their chances with the SK, knowing the civs were done.
I want to keep this by itself, but post support (lots of it, sorry) coming.
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Re: [DAY 6] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Mac and BR stuff:
Then, despite never posting that he even knows what the case against her is, much less agrees with it, he follows JJJ's vote onto BR. About an hour later, he switches to Diiny. I see this as a fall back distancing move.
Again mentions a large number of people he'd vote over Mac, but without really trying too hard to get anyone to go there. Reads to me like a very soft attempt to save Mac. The Mac save shouldn't be surprising, since he had already said he'd do it, but the sheer number of people he's willing to vote with no case reads wrong to me. Note that he mentions Black Rock despite never having posted that he figured out what the suspicion on her was for, but she seems to be his least favorite of potential candidates.motel room wrote:I'll get on Epi if you go back to voting there.MacDougall wrote:Self pres voting wilgy
Not anti wilgy atm. Out of the other 2-vote "wagons" I'd go Diiny or I guess Black Rock.
No one wants to stacks-on Choutas with me? Carn.
Then, despite never posting that he even knows what the case against her is, much less agrees with it, he follows JJJ's vote onto BR. About an hour later, he switches to Diiny. I see this as a fall back distancing move.
motel room wrote:alrighty, Black Rock
The day of Mac's lynch, though, motel room puts his vote on Choutas before reading the thread. Keep in mind here, he had recently mentioned 4 other players he wanted lynched over Mac, and Choutas wasn't among them. Furthermore, Choutas was the guy he switched to on Day 2 for a time, and he switched because he didn't like Choutas' reasoning on LC, the player motel room originally and finally voted for.motel room wrote:Diiny then
motel room wrote:grabbing a coffee, dealing with monday morning waste of time catch up meetings, and reading through what ive missed over the weekend.
One of his biggest posts to this point, telling everyone how unlikely it is that anyone bussed LC. Makes sure to defend Mac, reiterate how important his vote on LC was, and oh by the way, why would anyone suspect BR? I said I was going to read it, but I guess I forgot.motel room wrote:oh and voting Choutas
Rico brings this up, mentioning that Mac talked along similar lines, and motel says maybe some scum were there, but that he doubts it was planned (implying that early votes to LC couldn't possibly be busses).motel room wrote:I dont know where they are. I dont even know if that happened. I'm just giving my perspective on the whole ordeal. I would guess it was like any other lynch goes - some scum here, some scum there. I'm sure there would have been a scum on the LC lynch wagon, I just dont think it was planned, it seems like a stretch.Ricochet wrote:Ok so if LC may have wanted out, but told teammates not to fight it, where are they?motel room wrote:These elaborate scum bussing strategies that are being put forward, are they common here on the Syndicate? Because while they can happen over on RYM the most common scum strategy is just lay low pretty much. Bussing is rarely organised and generally just a self-preservation technique.
So reading all of this about how Long Con set up this big ol bus seems so far fetched to me. Remembering back to the day he was lynched, he was a contender but not the contender. I'm fairly sure that my return vote on him put him back in the lead and I know I did that from a genuine suspicion of him so I can't really get behind any of these "strategy" scenarios. He may have wanted out and told teammates not to fight it too hard but I really doubt it was a planned bus. My two cents, for the guy who is pretty sure Mac is scum cos of that idea. I still think mac is town.
Black Rock is the next major lynch contender, what's the deal there?
Same question as to Mac: considering that, except for Epig, the b24 had civs and LC on it, if you're saying the mafia wouldn't have planned an LC bus, then where do you see them having gone, in your opinion? We're talking six players here.
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Re: [DAY 5] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Floyd stuff:
Goes after Floyd for a slip, but backs off pretty quickly. (Mac did this too, by the way.) His later explanation was this:motel room wrote:Oh ok, like just from teammates?TheFloyd73 wrote:No, not about that topic anyway. would you like to be the first?motel room wrote:Has anyone PMed you?TheFloyd73 wrote:My first lack of inclusion was genuinely from stuff going on in my life that was messing with my head. And I will say AGAIN that if you wish to discuss this further, please PM me.
I hope your head's ok now man.
Here he pokes Floyd again, but never follows up on it.motel room wrote: i did that thing about asking about his PMs and he fell for it but every time I try and do a trap like that in RYM I only get townies who just didnt get what i was insinuating. Also I felt bad after.
Very soft Floyd defense here, and subtle pushing of 2 confirmed civs and JJJ.motel room wrote:Hello Floyd. I see you have your vote on Matt F. ok
Out of Mac or Diiny who do you think should be lynched?
And again, VERY soft but defensive on Floyd.motel room wrote:I'm happy to vote seaside or Choutas. I'm happy to see JJJ lynched to remove the doubt but I think he did the same thing I did w/r/t mac. I'm not confident about Floyd because of his lack of content but my gut says he'd flip town.
That's where my head's at just now.
Again, very very lightly calls Floyd on something, but doesn't pursue it.motel room wrote:I'm not sure yet who to pick between JJJ and Floyd when push comes to shove but I would much rather lynch seaside.Metalmarsh89 wrote:Right back at you.motel room wrote:What about the top lynch contenders?DrWilgy wrote:Zzzzzz...
Voting bcornett.
I wouldn't mind lynching seaside, but I still believe Jay is mafia.
Removing either of them has its benefits.
motel room wrote:we don't know definitively which roles remain. But you should definitely try that working out who's scum thing.TheFloyd73 wrote:I want to know how many Mafia remain. If I can work out who's scum, I could perhaps put roles on them.motel room wrote:why are you interested?TheFloyd73 wrote:So, which roles remain at the moment?
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Re: [DAY 5] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
First really bad look for motel, in my opinion. As you know, he was defending Mac probably the second-hardest of anyone (besides JJJ), and her suggests 4 people he'd rather lynch. 2 confirmed civ, 1 killed by SK, one still alive.
To me the most interesting point about the was that he said he'd analyze the fingers-Roxy-BR debate. He never got around to taking any kind of stance on it before they were modkilled.
To me the most interesting point about the was that he said he'd analyze the fingers-Roxy-BR debate. He never got around to taking any kind of stance on it before they were modkilled.
motel room wrote:espers or epi.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Who should we make dead, aokiji?
To a slightly lesser extent, Diiny or Devin.
You asked before about roxy, fingersplints and black rock? I might make it my business, fluffing around at work this Fri arvo, to figure out what the difference between them is cos I have no reads there at all.
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Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Damn, got my stuff mixed up, that was supposed to go up by the BR stuff. Sorry. There is a lot of material here...
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Re: [DAY 7] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Hopefully you all recognize this by now. motel room says lynching a civ JJJ would be ok, so we can stop debating whether to lynch a civ JJJ. This is when he popped up heavily on my radar. I said Mac did the same thing, and his explanation did not satisfy:motel room wrote:Which part? I wont be surprised if they were both town, but I'm not sold so hard as to defend them and they are both potential distractions now at this point and if not lynched now will probably ride on as lynch contenders until the end of the game is all.Russtifinko wrote:motel room wrote:I'm happy to see JJJ lynched to remove the doubt but I think he did the same thing I did w/r/t mac.Please esplain.motel room wrote:I actually feel like JJJ and Floyd will flip town.
motel room wrote:do you see the difference between what I'm suggesting and what Mac was suggesting? Mac thinks lynching Sorsha will leave behind all these clues he's super eager to get into, I'm suggesting lynching JJJ crosses him off the list the end. No more bickering about whether he's scum or town or what because look it's happening again today "JJJ should still be on the table for a lynch", "what do we think about JJJ?" over and over.
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Re: [NIGHT 7] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
"How He Defends" Stuff:
On Day 7, Matt F made a big case against motel. You can read for yourselves since it's long (with motel's responses). He mostly keeps it cool, but there are a few light moments of bringing it back on Matt during. I bring this up because it becomes a trend.
Here Choutas says that motel room has called Choutas scum more than he's called seaside scum, and questions why motel room voted seaside. motel responds that Chou is "twisting shit".
In fairness, I'll note that he had what read to me like a calm and well-reasoned defense from Matt's case here:
However, Matt keeps pushing and he gets testy. Lots of sarcasm here, calls Matt "obtuse", and please note the again, SUPER quilty soft Floyd defense at the bottom.
In response to my point about lynching civs not being ok:
In response to a very large case from sig, a major NO U:
On Day 7, Matt F made a big case against motel. You can read for yourselves since it's long (with motel's responses). He mostly keeps it cool, but there are a few light moments of bringing it back on Matt during. I bring this up because it becomes a trend.
Here Choutas says that motel room has called Choutas scum more than he's called seaside scum, and questions why motel room voted seaside. motel responds that Chou is "twisting shit".
In fairness, I'll note that he had what read to me like a calm and well-reasoned defense from Matt's case here:
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I actually missed this before and it's hilarious. However, it shows a dismissive and snide demeanor to cases against him, which he continues going forward and which I most often see as a baddie tell.motel room wrote:how come there's no jack-off-hand-gesture smilie
In response to a very large case from sig, a major NO U:
motel room wrote:If you're interested in my opinion, I don't think you actually feel one way or another about me. You are giving yourself too much wiggle room here saying I'm scummy (seriously, check that last para saying I'm scummy three times in four sentences) but then I might not be. You say that by changing my mind on Diiny you see that as me trying to distance myself from.. mac? Who is my "teammate" in this scenario?
This is weak sig. I'm not buying it.
looks like I fucked up the quoting and its too hard to get right. Putting the responses in yellow.
linki - about a million posts
His next rainbow list had me and sig, 2 of the three suspecting him, at the bottom, and Matt F somewhere towards the middle, but he then made 2 posts saying he doubted Matt's intentions with his case:motel room wrote:I don't feel like there's anything to defend against. Out of my vocal opposers sigs case is the laziest, Russ' is the most opportunistic and Matt's is thumb-suckingly narrow minded but I think he's being genuine although he seems to be ignoring my responses.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Beyond the evidence that I think you're aware of and admittedly in some cases you share with me, I think it's what appears to be a recent dive in your enthusiasm. You're making the posts you have to make, but you aren't really moving this thread very much that I can recall. It's like you're going through the motions. That lengthy response to sig is another example -- you're not defending yourself as much as critiquing his analysis.motel room wrote:Why am I so far down your list there?
That enthusiasm thing isn't right though. I'm still in this despite vanishing for weekends. Coming back to a mountain of pages makes it hard to narrow down what to do next. Defend myself is first. Comment on current shit is second I think cos at least then I have a frame of reference for other things and I feel like you get a better sense of instinct when posts are playing out in front of you. After that its a matter of time which is something I don't have a lot to prioritise to mafia anymore. I still enjoy it (and you know I enjoy it most as vanilla town puzzle solver so I think that's where your enthusiasm check is coming from which is fair) but yeah constantly playing catch up at work puts me on the back foot fairly often these days.
Spoiler: show
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Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
This one is important for my theory of the past 2 days. Why didn't motel room vote Choutas instead of MM doing it? Because he said he wouldn't, right here, and it would've looked too obvious to take back. He did vote Bullzeye that Day, which looks ok, but keep in mind that Bullz had more or less given up by this point. motel hadn't mentioned him before that I found, so to me it looks like distancing of a soon-to-be-dead teammate.motel room wrote:I see I'm a contender today ok I can understand that, my contributions have been dropping. If I have to vote to save myself I won't vote these players - JJJ, choutas, strawhenge - so line your bandwagons up accordingly scum.
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Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Finished. I apologize that I took basically a whole page with that, but felt it all needed to be said.
I will say, the case on him looks different to me in a number of ways. You didn't defend Floyd or ignore BR, you didn't say lynching civs was ok, when people accuse you of stuff you respond by posting even more analysis instead of saying the case is bad and thus whoever posted it is too, and you're posting a hell of a lot more. All points in your favor in my opinion.
If there's one thing about motel that gives me pause, it's the following post. I assume it came up in your review? Two now-confirmed baddies basically gang up on motel because he questioned the wisdom of lynching Devin after the failed Sorsha lynch. I do find it a very good look, but to me it's an island of good in a sea of bad.
If you can find more like this, and convince me that my theory of how he's handled teammates is incredibly unlikely, then I'm willing to see it another way. In all honestly, though, I think it would take a lot, because to me the pieces all fit except for this single post.
I hate to be this way, but I've spent over 4 hours mafia-ing today after working 9 hours. I'm going to bed. I'll have very limited time after work tomorrow, so I'll try to get to it then.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Russ I don't mean to be ignorant of your case against motel room. I understand your suspicion of him, it isn't
hard to compile evidence against him (the case looks a lot like a case against me is likely to look. When I did my spew review for him (I think on Day 10), it eased some of my concerns. I'd ask that you find that review and take a look -- you can show me where you disagree. I want to discuss your read on motel room further, but I think this is a necessary starting point.
I can't easily reference it myself on my phone.
I will say, the case on him looks different to me in a number of ways. You didn't defend Floyd or ignore BR, you didn't say lynching civs was ok, when people accuse you of stuff you respond by posting even more analysis instead of saying the case is bad and thus whoever posted it is too, and you're posting a hell of a lot more. All points in your favor in my opinion.
If there's one thing about motel that gives me pause, it's the following post. I assume it came up in your review? Two now-confirmed baddies basically gang up on motel because he questioned the wisdom of lynching Devin after the failed Sorsha lynch. I do find it a very good look, but to me it's an island of good in a sea of bad.
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Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
I look forward to your expansions.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Very good chance Marsh is bad. Will expand later. #legacyofstrawhenge
Meantime, why did you make this post immediately after the new day started?
Banners and Stuff
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Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?
The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
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Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
I checked in at work and that's what time it was. Plus the death of RadicalFuzz without an accompanying "the mafia have been eliminated" or "the serial killer has been eliminated" leaves you square in the crosshairs.Metalmarsh89 wrote:Meantime, why did you make this post immediately after the new day started?
More substantive explanation to come.
Why do you care when I said that?
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Re: [DAY 11] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Literally just some fucking guy.
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Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Metalmarsh89's content about Bullzeye:
*NOTE* -- I have deliberately avoided thoroughly reviewed Rico's own work on this interaction before producing this.
MM brought this out in Night 4 after the Sorsha lynch. He was half-contesting the notion that Devin was saved by Sorsha voters and noted that Bullzeye was the only person to really be pushing that agenda. I've highlighted a portion here that I think promotes an illogical thought process. While we know now that Devin was not "saved", we didn't know that then and that means a townie must approach the scenario from that mindset of uncertainty. MM portrays that mindset here, but arrives at a distinct conclusion (against the notion of a save) via a line of thinking that doesn't make sense. He's acknowledged that the Sorhsa/Devin wagons were at one point tied 7-7 and still discards the notion of a save because "Devin never had the lead" -- this is erroneous to the point of being dubious. A tied tally between a townie and a potential mafioso is literally a perfect scenario for a save to be possible.
Why do I care? Because this line of thinking was his setup for throwing a little shade on Bullzeye. If a line of thinking appears so wrong that it's sincerity can be doubted, and it is applied to a soft criticism of a confirmed mafioso, then the potential for a team mate relationship is perfectly believable. Moreover, MM hardly followed up on this. The following post is essentially the extent of that effort:
He again names Bullzeye but it's barely accusatory and even invites the discussion to expand well beyond just Bullzeye.
On Day 5 Bullzeye throws a pretty meaningless theory into the thread and MM asks a rather neutral question about it.
MM chats with Bullzeye about Matt's SK theory for Mac (suggesting the theory was both logical and had a hole rendering it impossible -- ).
After I'd started to doubt the Devin lynch as a good option, MM dropped this question on me. I didn't really consider it a significant moment before, but it could be now. I'm not sure why the sincerity of Devin's vote is being checked against his "voting for Bullzeye for meta". I don't understand the logic being drawn here, and I don't understand why Bullzeye's name is present in this post.
Day 6 "don't lynch" includes Bullzeye. I'm not automatically perturbed that a confirmed mafioso is on this list, because mistakes happen to everyone. What troubles me is that I have no idea why Marsh came to this perspective by this point in the game. His only content relevant to Bullzeye before this point had largely read-independent questions and to contest Bullzeye's Devin-was-saved agenda. Honestly considering the way Bullzeye played this game from the word "Go" it's hard to understand how anyone would include him on this list, and I don't see content in MM's history to support this.
Things like this are exactly why I ask people these silly questions and for GTH reads. This is a distinct and important point in which MM took a significant stance on a player and it can allow us to judge him more conclusively.
- He GTH reads Bullzeye as good on Day 7.
- Bullzeye is the towniest shade of blue in a Day 9 rainbow.
I asked him what made him feel good about Bullzeye. He gave me "vibes".
It's Day 9 and we're talking about "vibes".
MM tells Epi he's reading his case against Bullzeye on Day 9. I don't see any post in which he shares his thoughts on that case though.
Epi expanded on his meta read of Bullzeye which led to an extended discussion on the matter. He explores the meta question a little bit with past game examples and ends up granting that Bullzeye's subdued handling of Mac's accusation "seems like a scumtell" before pledging to double-check further.
MM draws out a specific example of a game in which Bullzeye, as mafia, behaved similarly to what he did in response to Mac in this game. Seems like a pretty significant find, we'll see what effect it has on MM's read. There's evidence of a shift here in MM's perspective of Bullzeye, but there hasn't been a distinct accusation yet.
MM talks to Choutas about Bullzeye and the flavor of this post is mostly soft-defensive. Choutas asserted a single statement Bullzeye made was pingy and MM dissuaded that read. He then qualified that he felt Bullzeye as a townie has the tendency to react abrasively to info-dumping as opposed to cases -- a step back from the prior progression MM was making away from the town read on Bullzeye.
One obvious question I'd ask is: why would Bullzeye abrasively combat info-dumping about him if he's town? The rule-breaking might not be savory, but it wouldn't threaten his position in the game like it might if he is mafia. In any event the important thing here is that MM's momentary straying from the town read seems to be ending here.
Compare the language MM employs here to talk about Bullzeye with the language he uses about every other read in this post. Only with Diiny does he offer up a waffle of a sentence like "I had thoughts before, which have been replaced by other players I've looked at since". He still gives a distinct read on Diiny though -- that his contributions have been poor and him being "go-along". These are criticisms, even if the post does not commit to moving against him. With everyone else he comes to a clear read.
With Bullzeye, he is the Great Emperor Waffle of Eggopolis. He acknowledges that the MacDougall interaction Epi and I mentioned exists, but he doesn't actually say anything about it. He doesn't say anything about anything with regards to Bullzeye.
"Nothing stood out as super-civ, but nothing bad either. I don't know I'll have to revisit him again I think."
This sentence can be found the Mafia Encyclopedia of Non-committal Reads.
He did give us a rainbow immediately after this post though.
Dead center.
Yer damn right.
Vote compilation -- the effort here is appreciated regardless of your alignment MM. I must say though that you put up a lot of posts within this framework and I'm not sure you did very much to take anything from it. In RYM #82 I put up a complete vote compilation as a mafioso because it was the easiest way to Look The Part without actually doing anything. I think it's a good possibility this is the same thing.
I explained to MM why I felt Bullzeye's late game behavior (Day 10 at this point) was so suspicious to me that I said he was conceding as a mafioso by drawing a comparison to bcornett (a townie who had a lot of trouble keeping up with the game but still did his best to stay relevant when he could).
Marsh thought I made a "very good point". What about the point did he like? "The whole salami".
He prodded me for a read on Choutas in the meanwhile.
This is possible the worst vote of the entire game by any player in it. If you look back in Marsh's posts for justifications for his Choutas vote, they exist, but not in any confidence-inspiring clear manner. He mostly criticized Choutas for voting early consistently (this is not a strong accusation frankly) and making one bad vote when he wasn't early. When your entire analytic focus is voting records, it's pretty easy to find someone who looks like a dope and fling poop at them. Even still though, the progression of MM's posts seems tailored to the survival of Bullzeye at the expense of Choutas until the day expires -- without inspiring confidence like I said.
Moreover, when he explained his Choutas vote -- it wasn't even about his voting record. It was this:
motel room specifically asked him why he preferred Choutas over Bullzeye. Instead of referencing his prior voting record compilations (which would have been dubious enough), he cited Choutas's EOD behavior. He acknowledged that I made a "very good point" about Bullzeye's behavior (indeed, "the whole salami" of the point), but moved against Choutas instead without saying why.
If this mindset existed when the Choutas vote was being placed, why did MM not actually express it? He said he preferred to lynch Choutas and voted for Choutas and that was it. It wouldn't have been hard for him to simply say either to Choutas or to everyone else "I am voting for Choutas because I think his current behavior clashes with his prior stated threats to pursue a modkill". Instead, we get it after the fact and it reads like an excuse.
This post might not mean much but I'll bring it up. He defended Bullzeye against "mafia" suspicion in light of Epi's serial killer theory. This is a weird goof up to make though because pretty much everyone suspecting Bullzeye was doing so on the basis that he's mafia, not that he's the SK.
It could just be oversight because I didn't even notice it when I responded to this post originally.
MM references a specific Mac post which might suggest Fuzz and Bullzeye would be a difficult pairing to argue as mafia. He then maneuvers this into a case against Fuzz and not Bullzeye.
MM entertains the notion of a Fuzz/Bullzeye pairing by checking into their interactions. This might be important because MM continued to push a Fuzz lynch all day while Bullzeye was still more likely to be lynched (as was Wilgy). If Fuzz weren't dead, this might be something MM would employ against him right now. That's only relevant if Fuzz was town though.
He specifically selects Fuzz as the more suspicious of the two.
Bullzeye is MM's low-hanging fruit.
The Bullzeye vote we needed before finally comes on Day 11 in the form of banter.
Welp, there it went. He "took the pressure" off of Bullzeye, which was surely suffocating given that banter vote.
This kind of content is quite important, as this is MM speaking directly with Bullzeye in the heat of the moment -- team mate relationships can be affirmed or denied in these kinds of interactions. In this case he is offering encouragement to Bullzeye by assuring him he isn't automatically going to be lynched. I don't think this post is incompatible with a team mate relationship.
MM waffled on Bullzeye some more and then freaked out when I asked him to take an actual stance.
Is it possible for this question to yield an insightful response on Day 11?
Reaffirms his preference for Fuzz as the lynch of the day over Bullzeye.
The highlighted statement might be fun, because MM was the one who denied having the interest in voting against it -- he sideline-supported the Bullzeye lynch while maintaining a preference for Fuzz (and used his vote accordingly).
Bullzeye spew about Metalmarsh89:
Bantery Day 1 vote excused as "random"? This post is quite belabored. I am not sure it was really random. That implies a strategic intent.
Rico mentions the deathwish posts re: MM and Bullzeye offers a soft defense. This is an easy post for Bullzeye to make regardless of MM's alignment. He bothered to make it though so judge as you may.
Bullzeye explains his Devin-was-saved agenda to MM. I don't believe there was a follow-up on this as I mentioned earlier.
Bullzeye celebrates dramatically when MM makes a move against Russ on Day 7.
Bullzeye responds to Epi's case as well as some Marsh content.
Epi's stuff was a lot more scathing than MM's, so the responses bear that out. Bullzeye is defending himself against Epi and explaining himself to MM.
Bullzeye's empty promise to do something with his time in the game falls at MM's feet.
~~~
Conclusion:
It's really easy to see MM in a bad light here. It's just not a good look at any juncture really. The prior analyses re: MM have been rather inconclusive, but this is distinctly bad and icky.
Not convinced? I think a good case can be made that he's the SK too. I'll work on that after I get a little sleep though.
*NOTE* -- I have deliberately avoided thoroughly reviewed Rico's own work on this interaction before producing this.
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Why do I care? Because this line of thinking was his setup for throwing a little shade on Bullzeye. If a line of thinking appears so wrong that it's sincerity can be doubted, and it is applied to a soft criticism of a confirmed mafioso, then the potential for a team mate relationship is perfectly believable. Moreover, MM hardly followed up on this. The following post is essentially the extent of that effort:
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Things like this are exactly why I ask people these silly questions and for GTH reads. This is a distinct and important point in which MM took a significant stance on a player and it can allow us to judge him more conclusively.
- He GTH reads Bullzeye as good on Day 7.
- Bullzeye is the towniest shade of blue in a Day 9 rainbow.
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It's Day 9 and we're talking about "vibes".
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MM talks to Choutas about Bullzeye and the flavor of this post is mostly soft-defensive. Choutas asserted a single statement Bullzeye made was pingy and MM dissuaded that read. He then qualified that he felt Bullzeye as a townie has the tendency to react abrasively to info-dumping as opposed to cases -- a step back from the prior progression MM was making away from the town read on Bullzeye.
One obvious question I'd ask is: why would Bullzeye abrasively combat info-dumping about him if he's town? The rule-breaking might not be savory, but it wouldn't threaten his position in the game like it might if he is mafia. In any event the important thing here is that MM's momentary straying from the town read seems to be ending here.
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With Bullzeye, he is the Great Emperor Waffle of Eggopolis. He acknowledges that the MacDougall interaction Epi and I mentioned exists, but he doesn't actually say anything about it. He doesn't say anything about anything with regards to Bullzeye.
"Nothing stood out as super-civ, but nothing bad either. I don't know I'll have to revisit him again I think."
This sentence can be found the Mafia Encyclopedia of Non-committal Reads.
He did give us a rainbow immediately after this post though.
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Vote compilation -- the effort here is appreciated regardless of your alignment MM. I must say though that you put up a lot of posts within this framework and I'm not sure you did very much to take anything from it. In RYM #82 I put up a complete vote compilation as a mafioso because it was the easiest way to Look The Part without actually doing anything. I think it's a good possibility this is the same thing.
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Marsh thought I made a "very good point". What about the point did he like? "The whole salami".
He prodded me for a read on Choutas in the meanwhile.
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Moreover, when he explained his Choutas vote -- it wasn't even about his voting record. It was this:
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If this mindset existed when the Choutas vote was being placed, why did MM not actually express it? He said he preferred to lynch Choutas and voted for Choutas and that was it. It wouldn't have been hard for him to simply say either to Choutas or to everyone else "I am voting for Choutas because I think his current behavior clashes with his prior stated threats to pursue a modkill". Instead, we get it after the fact and it reads like an excuse.
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It could just be oversight because I didn't even notice it when I responded to this post originally.
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Bullzeye spew about Metalmarsh89:
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Bantery Day 1 vote excused as "random"? This post is quite belabored. I am not sure it was really random. That implies a strategic intent.
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Bullzeye responds to Epi's case as well as some Marsh content.
Epi's stuff was a lot more scathing than MM's, so the responses bear that out. Bullzeye is defending himself against Epi and explaining himself to MM.
Bullzeye wrote:Just because I deserve to die (and I do) doesn't mean you should kill me. That'd be too obvious.Metalmarsh89 wrote:Ok, Bullzeye. :PBullzeye wrote:Guys, I deserve to die for missing the vote yesterday. I'm so ashamed I never miss votes! I was just so tired I forgot.
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~~~
Conclusion:
It's really easy to see MM in a bad light here. It's just not a good look at any juncture really. The prior analyses re: MM have been rather inconclusive, but this is distinctly bad and icky.
Not convinced? I think a good case can be made that he's the SK too. I'll work on that after I get a little sleep though.
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Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
How does it compare to my work, now that you've done yours?
Is your interaction conclusion as strong as your earlier post on MM being likely bad, or does the earlier post stem from something "extra" or "strawy"? Do you think there is an actual legacy from Strawy or just a vaguer possible deduction?
Between Wilgy and MM, so far, who are you leaning today?
Do you reckon the Mafia still has Drugs or is it just Angel?
Is your interaction conclusion as strong as your earlier post on MM being likely bad, or does the earlier post stem from something "extra" or "strawy"? Do you think there is an actual legacy from Strawy or just a vaguer possible deduction?
Between Wilgy and MM, so far, who are you leaning today?
Do you reckon the Mafia still has Drugs or is it just Angel?
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Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
More substantive explanation to come.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I checked in at work and that's what time it was. Plus the death of RadicalFuzz without an accompanying "the mafia have been eliminated" or "the serial killer has been eliminated" leaves you square in the crosshairs.Metalmarsh89 wrote:Meantime, why did you make this post immediately after the new day started?
More substantive explanation to come.
Why do you care when I said that?
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Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?
The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
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Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Jay, you're full of shit.
I'll offer some more elongated responses when I get a chance, but you are stuck in a tunnel now. Your case on DrWilgy yesterday was based on everything that MacDougall said and nothing about what DrWilgy said.
Your case against me is based on my interactions with Bullzeye and no other derivation. The content looks bad, but I'm not basing my whole read on you from your interactions with MacDougall.
You're leaving out way too many pieces of the puzzle for Day 12.
I'll offer some more elongated responses when I get a chance, but you are stuck in a tunnel now. Your case on DrWilgy yesterday was based on everything that MacDougall said and nothing about what DrWilgy said.
Your case against me is based on my interactions with Bullzeye and no other derivation. The content looks bad, but I'm not basing my whole read on you from your interactions with MacDougall.
You're leaving out way too many pieces of the puzzle for Day 12.
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Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?
The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
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Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
I make one case against you and now I'm "full of shit"?
Naw. Revisit that conclusion mate -- prior analyses were inconclusive. You've not been a town read for some time. The Bullzeye interaction is the first that puts you in a seriously bad position. I also said you're a SK candidate. I have lots of baddieness to associate with MM.
Naw. Revisit that conclusion mate -- prior analyses were inconclusive. You've not been a town read for some time. The Bullzeye interaction is the first that puts you in a seriously bad position. I also said you're a SK candidate. I have lots of baddieness to associate with MM.
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Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
It seems like we commented on many of the same things but I was more severe in my interpretations. I think you gave him too much BOTD in your conclusion.Ricochet wrote:How does it compare to my work, now that you've done yours?
Is your interaction conclusion as strong as your earlier post on MM being likely bad, or does the earlier post stem from something "extra" or "strawy"? Do you think there is an actual legacy from Strawy or just a vaguer possible deduction?
Between Wilgy and MM, so far, who are you leaning today?
Do you reckon the Mafia still has Drugs or is it just Angel?
It is as strong. That's all I'll say.
Not sure yet. It might be the best possible time to kill the SK while the mafia has/have no kill. That could still be MM. More analysis needed.
Drugs hasn't had an influence for a while, but who knows. After Burger and until Fuzz, I think the best candidate for a dead mafioso is Epi -- and that's a stretch.
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Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Considering Metalmarsh89 as a Psycho Killer candidate:
MM pokes in on a SK-relevant conversation without saying anything.
Contests Matt's Mac-as-SK theory by asking a question implying it could be someone else (without actually naming anyone who might have "performed their job better").
Matt states some uncertainties about his Mac-as-SK read but still pushes his lynch "to see if he's wrong". MM suggests he is "not opposed" despite his prior contesting of the theory.
MM is incredulous about Mac's stated strategy for hunting the SK but still calls it a "good plan". As basic as it might seem -- "rogues love to talk about their role" really is a proven thing in my experience. For some reason many self-aligned players just can't resist the need to involve their own role in discussion even when it doesn't need to be there. I've seen it multiple times. Mac may have been mafia, but I think he was being serious here.
I think this post might have temporarily sent Epi into hunting MM as a SK candidate, and it's one that makes me suspicious too. Epi made a frank statement with pretty obvious implications, and MM felt the need to butt in and say this. I don't understand what interest MM would have in making this post unless he felt personally affected by Epi's comment. I asked him what this post was about at the time and he responded as follows:
MM expanded on his post by stating the obvious in four separate bullets. He called Epi's claim "loaded" which is mildly accusatory, but the reasons given to describe it as "loaded" can be applied to nearly any role-relevant post in any game ever. MM's response to Epi smelled to me like someone dipping his toes into waters that he didn't need to be exploring and now the smell has become more potent with time and evidence. I think it might be self-revealing.
Orange: MM introduces a theory to associate Epignosis with the SK role -- suggests it was an "act of vengeance" against Golden to kill him based on what happened (or rather did not happen) in Recruitment IV. This seems like a dubious premise to me: that Epi would favor an emotional kill choice over a strategic kill choice. He strikes me as the opposite sort. Anyone else is welcome to contest that.
MM contests Mac's most absurd Epi-as-SK assertion with a point that would actually seem to support it. Sending in a declined attempt is logistically the same thing as missing the attempt. Illogical application of SK hunting/defending.
Important moment in which MM promotes a theory about the SK's lack of kill attempt on Night 5 alternative to Epi's theory about who did not post. He has since reverted to Epi's theory, which would seemingly exonerate MM.
Epi started pursuing MM as a SK propsect on Day 6 and one of MM's responses was this. He only complained about Epi's point of focus, not his actual read, and then OMGUSed. Weak.
Strawhenge (Psycho Killer victim) was getting into the heat of his anti-MM crusade here and MM discredited his entire attack merely because it came at the same time as Epignosis's (Psycho Killer victim) attack.
Then he asked a ridiculous question to Epi to promote himself as a non-SK candidate. The simple answer is: yes, MM, it seems perfectly logical for you to help lynch seaside on Day 7 and leave me as the odds-on favorite to be lynched right after him. Two for the price of one. I was able to regain my footing, but you didn't know that then.
This is the point in the game where I think the MM-as-SK case starts to become truly compelling.
Here's MM's fullest rebuttal/OMGUS to Epi in the SK debate they were having. He gripes about Epi's responses getting "shorter and shorter" (this is Epi we're talking about here) and lacking in extensive explanation (this is Epi we're talking about here). Nothing in this post is inspiring or even sensible.
MM again insists that his move from a JJJ vote to a seaside vote on Day was not SK-compatible (absolutely false) and then pushes the agenda that a lynch of a mafia player is the higher priority because of the potential to skip a night phase. That is itself a fair perspective, but look at where he develops from that: "Epi is trying to get me lynched without calling me a mafia read. This means he's the SK."
What?
Why doesn't this make sense for a mafia Epi who is just trying to generate a mislynch? Why doesn't it make sense for a town Epi who believes the SK is the eminent threat of the day and is trying to get his top SK read lynched? How can we make the immediate jump to "Epi is the SK" from this? The thought process makes no sense to me, and it just reads as total OMGUS.
It is important to state that later Epi clarified his move against MM as a SK candidate was a gambit to expose people who'd latch on. That revelatory post follows:
The highighted portion reveals that Epi didn't think MM is the SK for a "reason obvious to him". He's likely referring to the Night 5 scenario in which there was no kill attempt and MM had numerous posts -- implying he didn't miss a PM. I think there's good reason to believe Epi's ploy was correctly placed, even if by accident, and I frankly think MM handled it poorly. If one has absolute trust in the Night 5 theory Epi proposed then there you go, but that's a dangerous proposition -- particularly when MM himself proposed an alternative.
Day 9 priorities are still mafia-centric emerging from the Floyd lynch.
Still suspects Epi heavily as the SK even in light of Epi revealing his ruse.
Fuzz associated MM with the SK role on Day 10 and MM responded with accusations of misinterpretation. I do think the point he made about Choutas looked fake though (that Choutas's self-meta was a good look but couldn't exonerate him).
MM again pushes a perspective that is nonsense. A SK still has plenty of reasons to care who is lynched and to employ strategic votes.
MM now pushes Epi's theory of Night 5 non-posters as SK candidates. He seems to have discarded his own proposed alternative theory and is pursuing the one that doesn't feature him as a suspect.
Okay, so...? What do you conclude given this correction?
I dropped in early on Day 12 with a strongly-worded anti-MM statement. What was his primary concern?
When I posted it.
~~~
Conclusion:
MM has made a concerted effort in this game to discuss the SK a lot more often than most players tend to, and in so doing he has maneuvered his suspicions in convenient manners while offering nonsense defenses for himself. If the SK really didn't send a PM on Night 5 then fine, but that theory doesn't have to define the entire nature of the SK hunt. That's a big pill to swallow frankly. I think there are plenty of reasons to associate MM with the SK role.
Let's return to #legacyofstrawhenge2015.
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Orange: MM introduces a theory to associate Epignosis with the SK role -- suggests it was an "act of vengeance" against Golden to kill him based on what happened (or rather did not happen) in Recruitment IV. This seems like a dubious premise to me: that Epi would favor an emotional kill choice over a strategic kill choice. He strikes me as the opposite sort. Anyone else is welcome to contest that.
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Then he asked a ridiculous question to Epi to promote himself as a non-SK candidate. The simple answer is: yes, MM, it seems perfectly logical for you to help lynch seaside on Day 7 and leave me as the odds-on favorite to be lynched right after him. Two for the price of one. I was able to regain my footing, but you didn't know that then.
This is the point in the game where I think the MM-as-SK case starts to become truly compelling.
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MM again insists that his move from a JJJ vote to a seaside vote on Day was not SK-compatible (absolutely false) and then pushes the agenda that a lynch of a mafia player is the higher priority because of the potential to skip a night phase. That is itself a fair perspective, but look at where he develops from that: "Epi is trying to get me lynched without calling me a mafia read. This means he's the SK."
What?
Why doesn't this make sense for a mafia Epi who is just trying to generate a mislynch? Why doesn't it make sense for a town Epi who believes the SK is the eminent threat of the day and is trying to get his top SK read lynched? How can we make the immediate jump to "Epi is the SK" from this? The thought process makes no sense to me, and it just reads as total OMGUS.
It is important to state that later Epi clarified his move against MM as a SK candidate was a gambit to expose people who'd latch on. That revelatory post follows:
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When I posted it.
~~~
Conclusion:
MM has made a concerted effort in this game to discuss the SK a lot more often than most players tend to, and in so doing he has maneuvered his suspicions in convenient manners while offering nonsense defenses for himself. If the SK really didn't send a PM on Night 5 then fine, but that theory doesn't have to define the entire nature of the SK hunt. That's a big pill to swallow frankly. I think there are plenty of reasons to associate MM with the SK role.
Let's return to #legacyofstrawhenge2015.
This came in Straw's first post after the simultaneous failed night kills of Night 7 on the same target.Strawhenge wrote:He's either Life During Wartime or Psycho Killer. Vote him immediately.
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Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
If anyone else out there has a strong reason to suspect someone as a kill-capable role, you should make yourself heard loudly by referencing thread-relevant things in a case. Don't waste any time.
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Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Note to self: engage Russ on the matter of motel room when you get a chance.
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Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
Jay, explain why you trust Strawhenge and what role you think he could be that would give us reason to put stock in his claim.
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Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?
The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
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Re: [DAY 12] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)
That's the fun part. It doesn't even have to be about his role! I bet that's been driving you nuts, eh?Metalmarsh89 wrote:Jay, explain why you trust Strawhenge and what role you think he could be that would give us reason to put stock in his claim.
But you trusted him too. You had him blue in your rainbow. You said he was showing things you recognized in your "RYM research" that made you feel good. Why did you trust your biggest foe in the game?
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