Barry Lyndon - Endgame

[S~V~S]

Llama does not go in for that behind the scenes stuff, what you see is what you get.

So BWT who was gone for 2 days, did you learn anything in your catch up?

[Marmot]

I'll be gone in Portland all day today. I'm going to see Dream Theater tonight.

Catch you all tomorrow.

[Long Con]

The second in my ambitious series of Kubrick themed mafias, based on my second favorite Kubrick film. This will be a straightforward game with no secrets and everything out in the open, only with an added Hierarchy mechanic. This being a story of people swept along by the whim of circumstance, the individual players are fairly limited in their night powers, but I do not think that will lessen the fun substantially.

Ah... ok then, and inactive failure? I see Scotty voted for gleam, is he the only inactive one?

[Marmot]

I'll be inactive today, but that doesn't account for last night.

[S~V~S]

The second in my ambitious series of Kubrick themed mafias, based on my second favorite Kubrick film. This will be a straightforward game with no secrets and everything out in the open, only with an added Hierarchy mechanic. This being a story of people swept along by the whim of circumstance, the individual players are fairly limited in their night powers, but I do not think that will lessen the fun substantially.

Ah... ok then, and inactive failure? I see Scotty voted for gleam, is he the only inactive one?

Well, BWT for one.

Sorry I've been gone. The last 2 days were crazy. Going to start catching up now.

[DFaraday]

I agree that it's most likely that the kill was not sent, which would make agleaminranks look suspect.

I also think it's pretty likely that the Zebra voters are not bad. I doubt the baddies would bus a teammate this early in the game and with the ratio as it was.

[Scotty]

The second in my ambitious series of Kubrick themed mafias, based on my second favorite Kubrick film. This will be a straightforward game with no secrets and everything out in the open, only with an added Hierarchy mechanic. This being a story of people swept along by the whim of circumstance, the individual players are fairly limited in their night powers, but I do not think that will lessen the fun substantially.

Ah... ok then, and inactive failure? I see Scotty voted for gleam, is he the only inactive one?

Well, BWT for one.

Sorry I've been gone. The last 2 days were crazy. Going to start catching up now.

Good call there too.

Hey @HOST!!
Is the one captain in charge of the kill required to be the one to supply it, or can his/her teammates speak on his behalf?

[agleaminranks]

I will attempt to do my best to summarize the game so far in an attempt to catch up.

Day 1: chaos to say the least. People are arguing and accusing each other of badness from silly roleplaying, semantic inanity, and invoking gambler's fallacy?? Jeebus. Regarding the topics at hand, I'm glad some people didn't seriously consider Epi's copypasta role indicative.
That being said, a few things of note then. Many people rush to Sorsha's side because of her history of being bad recently, someone invokes gambler's fallacy. Which is fine, but anyone with a flipping brain should see how the statistics of randomness work for these games. It's pointless to believe it one way or another.
Wilgy mentions that someone embracing the fallacy is more likely to be civ. I think this is an entirely baseless claim. He's just saying that anyone who sided with Sorsha and wanting to believe she is good should be considered civilian. For a dumb reason. I have no more reason to believe Sorsha's innocence than I have to believe she's a baddy, so that reveals nothing, other than Wilgy maybe is wanting to protect someone who took Sorsha's side. Probably more likely them than Sorsha herself. Possible teammate somewhere?
Epignosis is acting pretty in character, but he himself seems to add little to the conversation in terms of productivity. He makes one comment pointing out a quote Serge made but the rest is entirely responsive and, well, rather passive. He disappears for a while. It's still day 1, but my experience with Epignosis being civilian has him leading the charge in discussion. We'll see how this pans out further.
The whole "dragon" talk was just stupid. Serge probably made a passing word and LC saw it in a linki and just added it on. I don't think it means anything more than that. SVS was acting defensively and I see no problem with that, but I would feel a little suspicious of the people who try to inflate the issue, like they're grasping for straws to accuse someone of anything. Could be bad. Who knows.

(I will try to do a more thorough ISO on specific characters once I'm caught up)

Night 1: Not much. Sig gets the axe and flips civilian. Scotty says he was feeling sig being good in spite of opposition. Will need to look at the sig voters to see what that info reveals. Dunno about this early in the game, but sometimes people claiming to have a good read on a lynch that flips civ has to do with them being bad. Too early to tell.
Long Con gets into it with Rico. I think LC is grasping at straws trying to make accusations.
The fact that Barry's mom got lynched is a big tell. I think it will give me some ideas as to whom Barry is.
Wilgy had a theory that if sig was good, zebra was bad. Hrmm. I don't see the zebra connection. I will need to reanalyze their interactions on Day 1.
I dislike Long Con's tone, he's playing at this point with a fair amount of conviction when being spotlighted. Maybe I don't have that strength of character, but normally confidence represents something hidden.
Zebra feels like she's slipping a bit in her interactions with Rico and Scotty. I might have jumped on this bandwagon had I not slipped up bad.

Day 2: Rico is nightkilled. He seemed to be leading the discussion at this point and I would have felt pretty good about his alignment.
Zebra and Wilgy end up NO U'ing each other.
Both Sorsha and Epignosis show up after quite some time away. Dunno what to make of Sorsha, but at this point, Epignosis is still lying pretty low. Making big claims about SVS. I'm not sure how I feel about SVS at this point, but it feels like she's been playing a good defensive game up to this point. But I don't feel great about Epignosis.

Night 2: Zebra is lynched and flips bad. Wilgy takes credit for starting the wagon. No one gets nightkilled, looking at the inactives (myself) for a probable reason.

Now we're at day 3.

I have to run to an exam I haven't studied for, but I have two claims to make based on my analysis, which I will try to provide more evidence for when I get back.

Epignosis is a captain, and DrWilgy is Barry Lyndon. I will probably be voting Wilgy today.

[agleaminranks]

Also, since I know I'm good, BWT is a captain too.

[Scotty]

I will attempt to do my best to summarize the game so far in an attempt to catch up.

Day 1: chaos to say the least. People are arguing and accusing each other of badness from silly roleplaying, semantic inanity, and invoking gambler's fallacy?? Jeebus. Regarding the topics at hand, I'm glad some people didn't seriously consider Epi's copypasta role indicative.
That being said, a few things of note then. Many people rush to Sorsha's side because of her history of being bad recently, someone invokes gambler's fallacy. Which is fine, but anyone with a flipping brain should see how the statistics of randomness work for these games. It's pointless to believe it one way or another.
Wilgy mentions that someone embracing the fallacy is more likely to be civ. I think this is an entirely baseless claim. He's just saying that anyone who sided with Sorsha and wanting to believe she is good should be considered civilian. For a dumb reason. I have no more reason to believe Sorsha's innocence than I have to believe she's a baddy, so that reveals nothing, other than Wilgy maybe is wanting to protect someone who took Sorsha's side. Probably more likely them than Sorsha herself. Possible teammate somewhere?
Epignosis is acting pretty in character, but he himself seems to add little to the conversation in terms of productivity. He makes one comment pointing out a quote Serge made but the rest is entirely responsive and, well, rather passive. He disappears for a while. It's still day 1, but my experience with Epignosis being civilian has him leading the charge in discussion. We'll see how this pans out further.
The whole "dragon" talk was just stupid. Serge probably made a passing word and LC saw it in a linki and just added it on. I don't think it means anything more than that. SVS was acting defensively and I see no problem with that, but I would feel a little suspicious of the people who try to inflate the issue, like they're grasping for straws to accuse someone of anything. Could be bad. Who knows.

(I will try to do a more thorough ISO on specific characters once I'm caught up)

Night 1: Not much. Sig gets the axe and flips civilian. Scotty says he was feeling sig being good in spite of opposition. Will need to look at the sig voters to see what that info reveals. Dunno about this early in the game, but sometimes people claiming to have a good read on a lynch that flips civ has to do with them being bad. Too early to tell.
Long Con gets into it with Rico. I think LC is grasping at straws trying to make accusations.
The fact that Barry's mom got lynched is a big tell. I think it will give me some ideas as to whom Barry is.
Wilgy had a theory that if sig was good, zebra was bad. Hrmm. I don't see the zebra connection. I will need to reanalyze their interactions on Day 1.
I dislike Long Con's tone, he's playing at this point with a fair amount of conviction when being spotlighted. Maybe I don't have that strength of character, but normally confidence represents something hidden.
Zebra feels like she's slipping a bit in her interactions with Rico and Scotty. I might have jumped on this bandwagon had I not slipped up bad.

Day 2: Rico is nightkilled. He seemed to be leading the discussion at this point and I would have felt pretty good about his alignment.
Zebra and Wilgy end up NO U'ing each other.
Both Sorsha and Epignosis show up after quite some time away. Dunno what to make of Sorsha, but at this point, Epignosis is still lying pretty low. Making big claims about SVS. I'm not sure how I feel about SVS at this point, but it feels like she's been playing a good defensive game up to this point. But I don't feel great about Epignosis.

Night 2: Zebra is lynched and flips bad. Wilgy takes credit for starting the wagon. No one gets nightkilled, looking at the inactives (myself) for a probable reason.

Now we're at day 3.

I have to run to an exam I haven't studied for, but I have two claims to make based on my analysis, which I will try to provide more evidence for when I get back.

Epignosis is a captain, and DrWilgy is Barry Lyndon. I will probably be voting Wilgy today.

Lol no dude. I don't agree with this at all, but will willingly listen to what you have to say when you provide this "evidence" when you get back.

Also, since I know I'm good, BWT is a captain too.

This could very well be possible too. Way to throw that in there to get the target off your back.

Gleam, what do you think about the reason for the lack of a NK last night?

[S~V~S]

Also, since I know I'm good, BWT is a captain too.

Ok that long post may have gotten you my vote.

Sig was Barrys Mom. Sig was screaming to NOT kill a specific person, who was NOT Wilgy. What makes you think he had BTSC with Wilgy?

I am hoping to hear what if anything BWT learned in his catchup, but it will be one of you for me.

[thellama73]

Hey @HOST!!
Is the one captain in charge of the kill required to be the one to supply it, or can his/her teammates speak on his behalf?

I decided to disallow group PMs this game.

[DrWilgy]

Hell, I think I'd be willing to vote Gleam for calling my claim baseless.

On terms of a more rational vote. I could see BWT being bad and not submitting a kill. Players that weren't posting though the night include Epi and BWT. Barry and Baddie?

If BWT is bad, I'm pretty sure LC is as well... Maybe that thought will amke me vote there.

LC do please answer my questions when you can.

[Long Con]

I flipped over here from BG to have a quick catchup, and that gleam post intimidated me too much. I'll absorb it all at a later time tonight, right now I'm AFK for a bit again.

Ok Wilgy, I'll try to answer things for you tonight as well. My attention has been taken up with having lots of fun in the BG game lately, but I will try to balance out tonight, I do not understand what links me to BWT though.

[DrWilgy]

I will not be voting BWT.

I will not be voting Sorsha.

This here was on my mind. I may need to reread fpr context in this area though.

[Scotty]

Hey @HOST!!
Is the one captain in charge of the kill required to be the one to supply it, or can his/her teammates speak on his behalf?

I decided to disallow group PMs this game.

Hell, I think I'd be willing to vote Gleam for calling my claim baseless.

On terms of a more rational vote. I could see BWT being bad and not submitting a kill. Players that weren't posting though the night include Epi and BWT. Barry and Baddie?

If BWT is bad, I'm pretty sure LC is as well... Maybe that thought will amke me vote there.

LC do please answer my questions when you can.

Yo Wilgy- you know who else was not active that phase? Agleaminranks. Why is that not "a rational vote" in relation to BWT and Epi?

[S~V~S]

Good question. ''

I am still hoping BWT gives us the benefit of his insight, though.

[DrWilgy]

Alright, I have no good excuse this time. I'm bogged down with finals and I just forgot the deadline was earlier than I thought it would be. Spectacular failure on my part. I will do my damndest to be a better player this upcoming day period.

This was posted at the start of night 2.

Gleam was here.

[S~V~S]

Alright, I have no good excuse this time. I'm bogged down with finals and I just forgot the deadline was earlier than I thought it would be. Spectacular failure on my part. I will do my damndest to be a better player this upcoming day period.

This was posted at the start of night 2.

Gleam was here.

So what is your feel on BWT?

[DrWilgy]

Interesting...

*Wilgy leaps from a nearby roof, lands horribly, dusts off his lab coat and straightens his glasses*

Both Epi and BWT posted during night 1 too. Perhaps Gleam isnt our choice pick of baddie today.

Linki - Dont have one yet. I'm looking to gaining one. Et tu?

How's Epi's attendance record normally fam?

[Epignosis]

Present.

[DrWilgy]

Oh... Hi Epi.

My questions from earlier... Is it defence or defense?

[Epignosis]

Oh... Hi Epi.

My questions from earlier... Is it defence or defense?

British, Australian, Canadian for the former, American for the latter.

[DrWilgy]

Oh... Hi Epi.

My questions from earlier... Is it defence or defense?

British, Australian, Canadian for the former, American for the latter.

Ty boss

[Epignosis]

I will attempt to do my best to summarize the game so far in an attempt to catch up.

Day 1: chaos to say the least. People are arguing and accusing each other of badness from silly roleplaying, semantic inanity, and invoking gambler's fallacy?? Jeebus. Regarding the topics at hand, I'm glad some people didn't seriously consider Epi's copypasta role indicative.
That being said, a few things of note then. Many people rush to Sorsha's side because of her history of being bad recently, someone invokes gambler's fallacy. Which is fine, but anyone with a flipping brain should see how the statistics of randomness work for these games. It's pointless to believe it one way or another.
Wilgy mentions that someone embracing the fallacy is more likely to be civ. I think this is an entirely baseless claim. He's just saying that anyone who sided with Sorsha and wanting to believe she is good should be considered civilian. For a dumb reason. I have no more reason to believe Sorsha's innocence than I have to believe she's a baddy, so that reveals nothing, other than Wilgy maybe is wanting to protect someone who took Sorsha's side. Probably more likely them than Sorsha herself. Possible teammate somewhere?
Epignosis is acting pretty in character, but he himself seems to add little to the conversation in terms of productivity. He makes one comment pointing out a quote Serge made but the rest is entirely responsive and, well, rather passive. He disappears for a while. It's still day 1, but my experience with Epignosis being civilian has him leading the charge in discussion. We'll see how this pans out further.
The whole "dragon" talk was just stupid. Serge probably made a passing word and LC saw it in a linki and just added it on. I don't think it means anything more than that. SVS was acting defensively and I see no problem with that, but I would feel a little suspicious of the people who try to inflate the issue, like they're grasping for straws to accuse someone of anything. Could be bad. Who knows.

(I will try to do a more thorough ISO on specific characters once I'm caught up)

Night 1: Not much. Sig gets the axe and flips civilian. Scotty says he was feeling sig being good in spite of opposition. Will need to look at the sig voters to see what that info reveals. Dunno about this early in the game, but sometimes people claiming to have a good read on a lynch that flips civ has to do with them being bad. Too early to tell.
Long Con gets into it with Rico. I think LC is grasping at straws trying to make accusations.
The fact that Barry's mom got lynched is a big tell. I think it will give me some ideas as to whom Barry is.
Wilgy had a theory that if sig was good, zebra was bad. Hrmm. I don't see the zebra connection. I will need to reanalyze their interactions on Day 1.
I dislike Long Con's tone, he's playing at this point with a fair amount of conviction when being spotlighted. Maybe I don't have that strength of character, but normally confidence represents something hidden.
Zebra feels like she's slipping a bit in her interactions with Rico and Scotty. I might have jumped on this bandwagon had I not slipped up bad.

Day 2: Rico is nightkilled. He seemed to be leading the discussion at this point and I would have felt pretty good about his alignment.
Zebra and Wilgy end up NO U'ing each other.
Both Sorsha and Epignosis show up after quite some time away. Dunno what to make of Sorsha, but at this point, Epignosis is still lying pretty low. Making big claims about SVS. I'm not sure how I feel about SVS at this point, but it feels like she's been playing a good defensive game up to this point. But I don't feel great about Epignosis.

Night 2: Zebra is lynched and flips bad. Wilgy takes credit for starting the wagon. No one gets nightkilled, looking at the inactives (myself) for a probable reason.

Now we're at day 3.

I have to run to an exam I haven't studied for, but I have two claims to make based on my analysis, which I will try to provide more evidence for when I get back.

Epignosis is a captain, and DrWilgy is Barry Lyndon. I will probably be voting Wilgy today.

I'd like a minute for rebuttal.

Spoiler: show

[Long Con]

Ok Wilgy, here's some responses:

Also, what would've prompted said "bold moves" that statement doesn't make any sense. Since there's no cause. Cause and effect statements only work if there's a cause which you haven't presented.

If "with the numbers" or the set player number is the cause... Why then? Why would on day 2, I would go after my teammate instead of day 1? Why not wait till 3 if numbers is the reason? after being hardly vocal, and numbers have anything to do with that? Perhaps my thoughts were this "hey I know we just gained some advantage in our baddie to civ ratio, now is clearly the time to make a bold move and go after my teammate."

What you are saying and/or proposing makes no sense.

Tldr - What about the exchange was ludicrous, what prompted my bold moves if I'm bad, and what do the numbers have to do with my actions? Because right now it seems like you are saying things to say them.

You're taking a gut theory and trying to analyze it out of existence, if you understand what I mean. I don't have a Big Reason why it would happen on Day 2, and not Day 1 or Day 3. I've been a baddie with Zebra before, and she absolutely loves the idea of teammate bussing. In Coquelicot Mafia, on a baddie team with me, she actually was making moves that made it take slightly longer, and made it slightly harder, for us to win, because she wanted to stick with a bussing plan so badly. We still quite dominated that game, but won a day later than we could have because she didn't want to give it up. And it wasn't even for a big reason, it was just because she had started it and wanted to stay the course and have fun with it. We were cool with it (albeit with rolled eyes and some sidelong concerned glances) because our victorious outcome seemed pretty inevitable either way at that point.

I don't recall seeing you play this way before, Wilgy. You are so carefree and zany so much of the time, and since zebra's lynch, you have changed into a laser-focused player that I don't recognize. I don't know how to analyze that, can you point to a time when you have done it before? You seem like a completely different player.

You say that what I proposed made no sense with *reasons* why... hell, you have typed fifty times the words against it that I ever used to put it out there. It was how I felt at the time, at one point in your back-and-forth with her, it stopped feeling like a real conversation to me. That's all, I understand that you don't want me or anyone else to feel that way, you have given reasons why it "makes no sense"... but the zebra I know and the Wilgy I thought I knew don't always require that logical core, they are players who are willing to freewheel it and splash a little chaos in order to hopefully come out on top of it all. Unlike players such as Dom and Epi, who I view as wanting to keep tight control on their perspectives and posts at all times.

Lastly (on this point anyways), as a teammate, you would have had no idea that the zebra accusation would catch on as much as it did, but your back-and-forth ended up dominating a large part of Day 2, due to this being a quieter sort of game.

Quick question, LC & Sorsha, can I get opinions on each other? Not becasue I specifically suspect either of you, but becasue of recent history, I think it would be valuable.

Hmm... What recent history is this SVS?

Also, LC and SVS, could you two comment on each other? I'm intrigued as to what you two think of each other.

Ok, I guess I should two-in-one this. Sorsha is a quiet player whether she is Civ or baddie, so, while that makes her relatively easy to ISO, it makes her harder to analyze. She's made a few comments about S~V~S and Wilgy, but nothing too definitive. She didn't pursue that S~V~S "three way tie" thing, but maybe no one answered her. (My answer: I don't think that seems like usual S~V~S behaviour... more like Metalmarsh behaviour: tie it up for fun for the heck of it, leaving no strong trail after the dust settles.) Her last comment on me was, like, "maybe LC is bad, I really don't know, but I'd go for that lynch!" A bit wishy-washy, which could be a baddie sign. I certainly didn't like the comment, personally.

And S~V~S? As I said in response to Sorsha, the tie-up-the-lynch thing doesn't seem like her usual M.O., but it's pretty early in the game, and I am having trouble making a logical connection to link it to "baddie S~V~S". I'll look deeper, but I want to post now and then come back for that. This post has been gestating too long already, due to distractions and BsG game posting.

[DrWilgy]

"I don't recall seeing you play this way before, Wilgy. You are so carefree and zany so much of the time, and since zebra's lynch, you have changed into a laser-focused player that I don't recognize. I don't know how to analyze that, can you point to a time when you have done it before? You seem like a completely different player."

That's on purpose. I like your response and believe you.

I would like more BWT-ing if possible. The more time that passes without a post from him, the more inclined I am to vote for him. I don't think the possibility of the captains not submitting a nk for the mind games should be ignored, but if BWT doesn't toss me anything to catch here, we will have problems.

[Long Con]

Ok, I would put S~V~S as Null-Civ, somewhere in the Medium Rare zone. I do think that her suspicion of me, and her relenting a bit, seemed both genuine and open-minded, which looks really good to me. It has the added bonus of not looking like buddying, because of the way she was talking before I responded... talking that "I think LC is bad" talk that I only like in small, easily digestible doses. Note to self: when attempting to buddy someone, first apply suspicion pressure to them, then turn it around.

"I don't recall seeing you play this way before, Wilgy. You are so carefree and zany so much of the time, and since zebra's lynch, you have changed into a laser-focused player that I don't recognize. I don't know how to analyze that, can you point to a time when you have done it before? You seem like a completely different player."

That's on purpose. I like your response and believe you.

Wow, I am impressed. Better not let it get out, or people will start becoming more demanding to see Laser Wilgy in action.

I would like more BWT-ing if possible. The more time that passes without a post from him, the more inclined I am to vote for him. I don't think the possibility of the captains not submitting a nk for the mind games should be ignored, but if BWT doesn't toss me anything to catch here, we will have problems.

I have found that this is the issue sometimes with BWT. He's a busy guy, and isn't always able to make a solid commitment to Mafia games at times. However, my experience with this in the past says that it makes him more likely to be a prime candidate for "missing the kill PM" -- his low posting isn't lurking, it's him not being present. I won't look at his last login time on the site is (because, as Epi recently discovered to his chagrin, that's not fair), but his posts clearly indicate that he was not around for Night 2.

[Sorsha]

@LC- I didn't persue the SVS three way tie thing because after her vote yesterday (for zebra) I don't find her any where near the top of my suspicions.

[Sorsha]

If this is not a case of an inactive missing a PM and is instead someone setting the inactives up I'm looking at Scotty and/or LC as Captains. Wilgy has been supatowning since the zebra lynch and night two had both of them on his radar..... until this whole no nk happened and the focus has shifted. Scotty was also very quick to jump on a vote today and has been advocating for the gleam vote.

[S~V~S]

I am lost alone & clueless. I am not even a corporal, much less a captain

I have a slow PM at work today, I should have time to reread & get some more focus.

[Serge]

And I thought I wasn't posting much. Be lively, everyone!

agleamintheranks and Scotty is too much WIFOM for me. I'll probably vote for one of them. Right now I'm leaning more into agleamintheranks, as getting him lynched would clear up the inactive missing nightkill somehow.

[Serge]

Scotty feels bad. It must be your profile picture.

[Scotty]

"I don't recall seeing you play this way before, Wilgy. You are so carefree and zany so much of the time, and since zebra's lynch, you have changed into a laser-focused player that I don't recognize. I don't know how to analyze that, can you point to a time when you have done it before? You seem like a completely different player."

That's on purpose. I like your response and believe you.

I would like more BWT-ing if possible. The more time that passes without a post from him, the more inclined I am to vote for him. I don't think the possibility of the captains not submitting a nk for the mind games should be ignored, but if BWT doesn't toss me anything to catch here, we will have problems.

The fact that you continue to ignore gleam and push it against BWT for having similar tendencies is making me believe you are purposefully directing suspicion away from gleam. You already acknowledged that both were active night 2- though gleam was active only at the beginning of the night phase. I don't know about you, but as a baddie, I usually don't decide who to kill at the beginning of night.

I think that you and gleam are baddies.

How bout dem apples?

[Scotty]

Scotty feels bad. It must be your profile picture.

[Epignosis]

I am more inclined to vote for gleam than Scotty. Scotty does not strike me as one to miss a night kill, and from my reading, that's the only way there was no kill.

a2thezebra - Capatin Grogan - Lynched Day 2
agleaminranks - A potential miss
birdwithteeth11 - A potential miss
DFaraday - A potential miss
DrWilgy - I think a potential miss only if done purposefully with the intent to deceive
Long Con - Most likely would not miss a kill
Marmotpictures87- Killed his own teammate in Downton Abbey; a potential miss on purpose with the intent to deceive
Ricochet - Killed Night 1
Scotty - Most likely would not miss a kill
Serge - Was bad in Turf Wars with me, and was not terrible active; got replaced, but I do not recall missing a night action
Sig - Belle - Lynched Day 1
Sorsha - Was bad in Downton Abbey and not terribly active; a potential miss
S~V~S - Most likely would not miss a kill

Potzdorf is therefore someone who feared Ricochet enough to remove him first thing, but not so invested that he or she would submit a second kill. If the other two captains are active and anything like me, they would be frustrated with their lost opportunity.

My vote is likely to go to agleaminranks, birdwithteeth11, DFaraday, or Sorsha.

[Long Con]

Gotta go to work, so I'm voting now.

Voting BWT11 because I think he's very likely to have missed the nightkill.

[DFaraday]

My vote is likely to go to agleaminranks, birdwithteeth11, DFaraday, or Sorsha.

I haven't been around much, but if I had a kill, I would make sure to send it in.

I could go for Gleam or BWT today, but I'd like to hear anything they might have to say first.

[birdwithteeth11]

Llama does not go in for that behind the scenes stuff, what you see is what you get.

So BWT who was gone for 2 days, did you learn anything in your catch up?

I did not, because I fell asleep and haven't read anymore since then. So I'm now 4 days behind instead.

Today I will for sure catch up though. I promise.

[Epignosis]

Sorry I've been gone. The last 2 days were crazy. Going to start catching up now.

This came a few hours after the missed kill.

I agree that it's most likely that the kill was not sent, which would make agleaminranks look suspect.

I also think it's pretty likely that the Zebra voters are not bad. I doubt the baddies would bus a teammate this early in the game and with the ratio as it was.

DF offered this the next morning.

My vote is likely to go to agleaminranks, birdwithteeth11, DFaraday, or Sorsha.

I haven't been around much, but if I had a kill, I would make sure to send it in.

I could go for Gleam or BWT today, but I'd like to hear anything they might have to say first.

I rather believe this. But still.

Alright, I have no good excuse this time. I'm bogged down with finals and I just forgot the deadline was earlier than I thought it would be. Spectacular failure on my part. I will do my damndest to be a better player this upcoming day period.

agleaminranks makes this mea culpa shortly after the lynch. This would indicate that he was acutely aware of his inactivity, and that if he missed sending in a kill, he would have had to have been of the mindset that he would consider whom he would kill with his team, but then he wound up missing the action due to the deadline. That's slightly harder to believe, but still comfortably within the realm of possibility. That big long post afterward stinks though.

Sorry I missed it. Blame my mother.

Quick question, LC & Sorsha, can I get opinions on each other? Not becasue I specifically suspect either of you, but becasue of recent history, I think it would be valuable.

I usually think LC is bad and I'm wrong as often as I'm right. I don't see anything in this game that reminds me of the last game so far though. Absolutely not defending him, I wouldn't fight a LC lynch today but I can't read him well at all and never have been able to.

Sorsha was around right before the end of the Night. She could have submitted a kill in that time. The only way Sorsha didn't submit a kill is if she was being cute and trying to frame inactives. If Sorsha is bad, I'd say she is a teammate of the first captain. She was the first to raise this:

Yeah and with apparently no blocker or Doctor... Someone forget to send in a PM?

However, she she doesn't pursue that idea, but instead concentrates on the notion that this was a setup.

If this is not a case of an inactive missing a PM and is instead someone setting the inactives up I'm looking at Scotty and/or LC as Captains. Wilgy has been supatowning since the zebra lynch and night two had both of them on his radar..... until this whole no nk happened and the focus has shifted. Scotty was also very quick to jump on a vote today and has been advocating for the gleam vote.

Sorsha is positioning herself to vote for Scotty (and to a lesser extent LC) based on...an if?

[Marmot]

Good morning everyone. So say we all!

How many tens of posts did I mist?

[Marmot]

EBWOP: miss...

[Scotty]

Good morning everyone. So say we all!

How many tens of posts did I mist?

Lol I actually forgot you were playing this game. Any thoughts for what's happening here in ye olde times?

[birdwithteeth11]

Alright. Here are some thoughts from my catch-up:

- SVS' perceived lateness of her Day 1 vote. Given the discussion that has happened about it, I'm inclined to not read anything into it. I don't see it as a big fish to fry.

Your meta's looking pretty bad right now Wilgy, to be honest.

What do you mean by this?

I mean that from what I know about Wilgy based on my experiences with him in other games, this feels way more like his baddie game than his civ game. I'm just being honest.

Just like you were so confident with sig?

Since I was wrong once does that mean I should just stop trying to read people?

Certainly not. But your confidence here is either brave or reckless. And given how it went with sig, I would think you would be inclined to take a step back before making a judgement rather than going in guns blazing each time.

- Up to the lynch post for Day 2, Wilgy still looks bad to me just like zebra. Their whole back and forth felt...forced to me. Scotty's vote for Day 2 looks to me like someone who didn't want to commit to the Wilgy-zebra thing though.

@Scotty, so... Baddies lost a teammate and the person conversing with said teammate was me. Am I supposed to believe that the baddies team didn't chime in anywhere on me? It's also like I stated a odd pattern that two players gave 50% correct checks regarding both me and baddie.

Did 2 civs come up and portray this pattern? Not likely. A civ and a baddie? More likely. It's the same reason why I figured Sig and Zebra were on opposite teams. Similar patterns, but little connection.

I actually think this is a far more likely idea of what happened. It gives baddies both an opportunity to look clean by throwing a teammate under a bus, as well as backing someone who is probably a civvie for all practical purposes.

- Those Day 3 results look like it came from several of us being no-shows and very low posters. But without an actual lynch, I'm not sure how helpful those results are in determining anyone else's role.

Also, since I know I'm good, BWT is a captain too.

Well I know I'm good, so I find it interesting that you want to paint the target on my back to divert attention away from yourself. I don't think it helps either of our cases given we're both being looked at in a bad light.

Given that we have several fairly inactive players, I wouldn't be surprised if the baddies are trying to lynchpin several of the quieter people to take attention off of themselves.

Oh, and gleam's long post. I feel like huge chunks of it (the gambler's fallacy stuff, the dragon thing, Zebra vs. Wilgy) feels dismissive to me of extended conversations. You can disagree with them, but to me it feels like he's saying nothing important came of it. Which I highly disagree with. I also want to hear why you think Epig is a captain and Wilgy is Barry. Because I have not seen any evidence that would lead me to believe either of those yet.

"I don't recall seeing you play this way before, Wilgy. You are so carefree and zany so much of the time, and since zebra's lynch, you have changed into a laser-focused player that I don't recognize. I don't know how to analyze that, can you point to a time when you have done it before? You seem like a completely different player."

That's on purpose. I like your response and believe you.

I would like more BWT-ing if possible. The more time that passes without a post from him, the more inclined I am to vote for him. I don't think the possibility of the captains not submitting a nk for the mind games should be ignored, but if BWT doesn't toss me anything to catch here, we will have problems.

So what are your thoughts on gleam then?

Weren't you the one who said that you'd analyze 2 players who argued about the sky being different colors to look for patterns? Because from what I've read so far, it looks like you are singling only one of us out.

Alright. I think I covered all my thoughts up to the present. Let the questions fly.

[birdwithteeth11]

If I had to vote now FWIW, I would vote either gleam or Wilgy.

[Scotty]

Scotty's vote for Day 2 looks to me like someone who didn't want to commit to the Wilgy-zebra thing though.

Correct:

I want to stay away from the Wilgy/zebra lick-a-thon for now. Im not seeing baddies out of either of them and instead of possibly getting two mislynchesmislynches, I'll stick to more glaring developments.

I agree with BWT's post.

Though BWT does fall into the same category of inactives, I feel his statements are more genuine.

What say you, other people that haven't commented today?

[Marmot]

Good morning everyone. So say we all!

How many tens of posts did I mist?

Lol I actually forgot you were playing this game. Any thoughts for what's happening here in ye olde times?

Since this is a simple game, I think the mafia simply forgot to send their kill in.

They could have tried for a gambit. There are 3 mafia left (presumably) and what 9 non-mafia? They could have opted to not kill with the assumption that Barry would kill one of their own. But Barry clearly failed (or forgot to kill, himself) which means that makes it less likely that mafia would do this.

And with as much death that can happen in this game, I don't see why mafia would want to draw it out intentionally. I like the idea of the missed kill better.


Thus, today I will vote for anyone who didn't post last night, or Scotty (because he forgot about me).

[Scotty]

Good morning everyone. So say we all!

How many tens of posts did I mist?

Lol I actually forgot you were playing this game. Any thoughts for what's happening here in ye olde times?

Since this is a simple game, I think the mafia simply forgot to send their kill in.

They could have tried for a gambit. There are 3 mafia left (presumably) and what 9 non-mafia? They could have opted to not kill with the assumption that Barry would kill one of their own. But Barry clearly failed (or forgot to kill, himself) which means that makes it less likely that mafia would do this.

And with as much death that can happen in this game, I don't see why mafia would want to draw it out intentionally. I like the idea of the missed kill better.


Thus, today I will vote for anyone who didn't post last night, or Scotty (because he forgot about me).

I'm going to build a residence around your natural habitat and inadvertently evict you, Marmot

[Marmot]

You have to find me first.

I'm somewhere between here and Ol' Faithful. And the best part is, you don't even know where here is!

[DrWilgy]

Y'all seem to be ignoring the fact that I acknowledged Gleams existence, but ruled him out since he was here.

If you think I'm singling you out BWT you are correct. You were, by posting means, AFK. The only other was Epi. Based on how often you die day 1 with me, I have little to indicate how you would preform as a baddie. When you compare this to Epi (who I think I can read better based solely on game time together) you are the greater liability.

What do you think of these players BwT:
- Epi
- LC
- Scotty in the context of both "avoiding Zebra vs Wilgy" and the "guy who wants gleam murked"

I'll go over Gleam as soon as I'm out of my shower.