RED vs. BLUE: Endgame

[JaggedJimmyJay]

He is not at the top of my rainbow list.

What does that mean?

It means that his Day 2 'Lynch Jay, if town, lynch Quin' contingency is the first thing that comes to mind when I think about him, and it does not sit well with me at all.

How do you feel about his Day 1 vote?

[Quin]

He is not at the top of my rainbow list.

What does that mean?

It means that his Day 2 'Lynch Jay, if town, lynch Quin' contingency is the first thing that comes to mind when I think about him, and it does not sit well with me at all.

How do you feel about his Day 1 vote?

I initially thought it was a self-preservation vote, but the order of how the votes came in tells me that's not the case. I'll read into his actual posts a bit later but I need to start digging into a report.

[Golden]

The fact that quin is even willing to discuss inh as potentially bad, after I asked him earlier 'who would you vote if you couldn't vote marmot' and he said marmot, makes me

Unless we still think there could be two mafia out there, which seems unlikely given balance... it simply makes me peel away the one layer that vexed me about quin which was the idea that he knew the last was marmot and so he didn't need to worry about who else could actually function as scotty teammates.

Is this wrong?

[Quin]

The fact that quin is even willing to discuss inh as potentially bad, after I asked him earlier 'who would you vote if you couldn't vote marmot' and he said marmot, makes me

Unless we still think there could be two mafia out there, which seems unlikely given balance... it simply makes me peel away the one layer that vexed me about quin which was the idea that he knew the last was marmot and so he didn't need to worry about who else could actually function as scotty teammates.

Is this wrong?

Why don't we all vote marmot and find out?

[Marmot]

[JaggedJimmyJay]

The fact that quin is even willing to discuss inh as potentially bad, after I asked him earlier 'who would you vote if you couldn't vote marmot' and he said marmot, makes me

Unless we still think there could be two mafia out there, which seems unlikely given balance... it simply makes me peel away the one layer that vexed me about quin which was the idea that he knew the last was marmot and so he didn't need to worry about who else could actually function as scotty teammates.

Is this wrong?

Why don't we all vote marmot and find out?

Why don't you just answer him?

[Quin]

The fact that quin is even willing to discuss inh as potentially bad, after I asked him earlier 'who would you vote if you couldn't vote marmot' and he said marmot, makes me

Unless we still think there could be two mafia out there, which seems unlikely given balance... it simply makes me peel away the one layer that vexed me about quin which was the idea that he knew the last was marmot and so he didn't need to worry about who else could actually function as scotty teammates.

Is this wrong?

Why don't we all vote marmot and find out?

Why don't you just answer him?

Answer what?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Answer what?

His assertion was that the degree of confidence you were exhibiting in your MM read was such that it made you appear genuine in your vendetta. So when a new name pops up which you speak of in a distinctly negative way (INH), it seems a curious thing. How can you be so dead set on lynching MM if you have meaningful doubts about INH? What happened to your suspicion of me?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Hey INH:

Golden and INH: reads on each other please.

[Golden]

Answer what?

His assertion was that the degree of confidence you were exhibiting in your MM read was such that it made you appear genuine in your vendetta. So when a new name pops up which you speak of in a distinctly negative way (INH), it seems a curious thing. How can you be so dead set on lynching MM if you have meaningful doubts about INH? What happened to your suspicion of me?

More than merely genuine... certain.

[Quin]

Answer what?

His assertion was that the degree of confidence you were exhibiting in your MM read was such that it made you appear genuine in your vendetta. So when a new name pops up which you speak of in a distinctly negative way (INH), it seems a curious thing. How can you be so dead set on lynching MM if you have meaningful doubts about INH? What happened to your suspicion of me?

Marmot is my number one lynch. A scenario where he is off the table does not exist. I also have suspicions for other players, but I will not lynch any of them before the marmot.

I am still suspicious of you. I'm confident that marmot is bad, and since I don't see the possibility of a 4 player mafia team as well as a serial killer, you're off the hook to be bad until such time as I'm proven wrong.

[Marmot]

Where do you stand now on Sir Marmot, Quin?

He's the last baddie. The context behind his vote for Scotty doesn't give me any reason to civ read him, and reywaS was an easy bus.

Could you offer some reasons as to why no one else could possibly be it?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Answer what?

His assertion was that the degree of confidence you were exhibiting in your MM read was such that it made you appear genuine in your vendetta. So when a new name pops up which you speak of in a distinctly negative way (INH), it seems a curious thing. How can you be so dead set on lynching MM if you have meaningful doubts about INH? What happened to your suspicion of me?

Marmot is my number one lynch. A scenario where he is off the table does not exist. I also have suspicions for other players, but I will not lynch any of them before the marmot.

I am still suspicious of you. I'm confident that marmot is bad, and since I don't see the possibility of a 4 player mafia team as well as a serial killer, you're off the hook to be bad until such time as I'm proven wrong.

What are your contingencies in the event that Marmot is lynched and flips town?

[Quin]

Answer what?

His assertion was that the degree of confidence you were exhibiting in your MM read was such that it made you appear genuine in your vendetta. So when a new name pops up which you speak of in a distinctly negative way (INH), it seems a curious thing. How can you be so dead set on lynching MM if you have meaningful doubts about INH? What happened to your suspicion of me?

Marmot is my number one lynch. A scenario where he is off the table does not exist. I also have suspicions for other players, but I will not lynch any of them before the marmot.

I am still suspicious of you. I'm confident that marmot is bad, and since I don't see the possibility of a 4 player mafia team as well as a serial killer, you're off the hook to be bad until such time as I'm proven wrong.

What are your contingencies in the event that Marmot is lynched and flips town?

I smack myself in the face with a hot frying pan.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I smack myself in the face with a hot frying pan.

I can dig that, but I'm trying to get a more insightful answer about how you'll behave in this game thread.

[Quin]

Where do you stand now on Sir Marmot, Quin?

He's the last baddie. The context behind his vote for Scotty doesn't give me any reason to civ read him, and reywaS was an easy bus.

Could you offer some reasons as to why no one else could possibly be it?

No, but my reason for thinking that it's you is the strongest.


I'm calling it for now, I got dragged back in here and I need to get back to my uni workload. What time is it right now in America - I don't want a repeat of Day 3 where I sat on my thumbs because I didn't have anyone to talk to before I put my vote down, so I'll make sure to come back in time for some more of...this.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

We have all day tomorrow. I intend to listen and contemplate before I call for someone's head.

[Quin]

We have all day tomorrow. I intend to listen and contemplate before I call for someone's head.

Oh, sweet. I thought we were on the last day for some reason. I'll still come back in a few hours, but I really need to get this stuff done.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

That's not an invitation for anyone to piss around though. This is crunch time. Get in here and solve this game or die, y'all.

[insertnamehere]

Let's break this down.

Why are you confident it's not Jay?

Because nothing about Jay's game makes any sense if he is mafia.

I'd argue the opposite, but okay.

The kills are very poor choices for him.

Night 1: Boomslang and Wilgy 1.0; They were both fairly non-entities, Wilgy being Wilgy, and Boomslang voting for Leetic/Golden 2.0 after Leetic made his one weird post that's still somehow still getting quoted. Neither I couldn't see a bad 3J, Scotty, and Rey team going after.
Night 2: Ricochet and Golden 1.0; Golden's someone I could see being a prime SK target. Someone who was uber-active, uber-opinionated, and widely seen as civ would be hard to contend with. Ricochet makes perfect sense to me as a 3J kill. After getting into numerous disagreements, they sunk into a passive-aggressive weird-ass relationship where Rico would vote with 3J while sarcastically making fun of the reasoning 3J provided. Rico in this game was all bizarre Trump tweets and indignation, someone I could see a 3J baddie team wanting out.
Night 3: DrWilgy and Epignosis; Remember when 3J directly told the SK to get out a baddie or else we all may be screwed? Lookie at what happened. Now, this is a WIFOM minefield, but the scenario that makes the most sense to me is the SK killing Wilgy, and 3J using that as cover to eliminate Epi, a player who was both unpredictable, clever, and against him.

These kills often work out quite well for 3J. At least, half of the time.

Doing things like defending scotty on day one makes no sense if he is a teammate.

YES IT DOES MAKE SENSE.

Did anyone else notice that Rey's alignment was revealed in much the same way as Scotty's? Meaning that Scotty most likely didn't have some special seemer role.

I think G-Man is just trolling us with these delayed reveals, and there isn't an explicit role-based mechanical reason for them.

Meaning that if 3J was Scotty's teammate, he'd have no idea that Scotty would initially flip civ. So there's no reason for him not to defend Scotty.

We're both so damn far down the WIFOM rabbit hole in regards to 3J's Day 1 behavior, that I doubt me bringing up these points will change your mind, Golden. But I'd feel like an absolute failure if I didn't try.

Jay's entire game has done nothing but put him under lynch pressure for the entire game when he would know he had to be the guy who would see this through if they were going to win.

Uh-huh.

Jay's game is, for me, beyond obviously town. I really don't see any way he could be mafia. If he is, it's the worst game he has ever played as mafia. I guess people do have bad games, but really... SK, possibly. Mafia, no.

"This guy is acting too damn scummy to really be scum."

Either 3J is playing the worst scum game ever or the worst town game ever. I think he's cannily manipulating you, Golden, and using his thread cachet to spread the suspicion, and quash any legitimate cases against him.

He kills me and keeps you, epi and inh all alive?

No, he kills Rico and Epi. He leaves me alive because I'm not what you would call the Syndicate's most persuasive player.

He only escaped lynch yesterday by the grace of you going for rey, which given you suspected Jay was by no means any guarantee.

It just doesn't make sense.

He would have voted for literally anyone other than himself. He certainly said enough and set up enough in the thread to basically justify anything. Plus, there's the ol' self-preservation excuse.

[insertnamehere]

if this game were a jack nicholson movie:

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I'm going to put Quin on blast because I think the game demands it in a phase that could potentially lose the game. I think Golden has been considering, and now me too, the possibility that Quin has information on MM. This would be discounted by his continued suspicion of other people, but he kind of alleviates that with the notion that he "doesn't think there are 4 scum", and there's also probably a SK on the loose.

This is obviously not something Quin would be allowed to confirm.

What say you to that, Marmot?

[Golden]

That is what I'm saying, but I'm also recognising that Quin can't really say anything about it to confirm or deny.

It's also why I asked MM if he thought quin was bad or just misguided.

[Golden]

INH 'something does not have to give'. You can feel free to vote for 3J but you won't convince me to join you. I'm not going to expend effort convincing you that you are wrong.

[Marmot]

I'm going to put Quin on blast because I think the game demands it in a phase that could potentially lose the game. I think Golden has been considering, and now me too, the possibility that Quin has information on MM. This would be discounted by his continued suspicion of other people, but he kind of alleviates that with the notion that he "doesn't think there are 4 scum", and there's also probably a SK on the loose.

This is obviously not something Quin would be allowed to confirm.

What say you to that, Marmot?

Quin hasn't towncleared anyone, so I'd be careful with that assumption.

The timing of his vote for me on Day 3 doesn't correlate to information either.

[insertnamehere]

I'm honestly confused. I understand that I am not immune to suspicion and that everyone deserves scrutiny. However, in this game, it seems as though no matter what the circumstances, to some people I just can't be town -- the tinfoil case is always more moving. What have I done in this game that is so suspicious? This isn't rhetorical, I'd like an answer.

The only time you've been even relatively right is when you suspected Rey. And even then, you tried to lynch Wilgy first. It took Marmot intervening and forcing a 3J vs. Rey situation to get you to lynch him.

Every other concrete thing, by concrete I mean not speculation, that you've said has been wrong.

I don't trust you as far as I could throw you.

Here's another decent summary from the late, great, only person who actually agreed with me, Epignosis:

I decided to do this differently. Instead of pulling quotes and all that, I'm just going to summarize my view.

1. 3J argued with Ricochet over pointless things.

I suspected you early on because I believed your back and forth with Ricochet was nitpicky and exploded into something stupid. I also believe you were nitpicking over things I thought were obvious.

2. 3J fought against Scott's lynch.

The biggest issue is that 3J wanted INH dead (or leetic) instead of Scotty. Why did you do this, and why wouldn't you let Scotty die?

3. 3J voted for Quin.

I understand you were the counter choice, but if you are good, and you get to win with you faction, then I would think you would have been doing what it is you are doing now. Now it looks like you are trying to scare people from voting you. See below.

4. 3J called me the serial killer.

This was your first reaction to the idea of a serial killer. You came after me.

And using your own logic, you're the person left who I have the least reasons to call town.

[Golden]

It could be interpreted that he towncleared golden 1.0 the moment he rejoined the thread...

And lets not forget he may not have had full results for every night because Beck.

[insertnamehere]

INH 'something does not have to give'. You can feel free to vote for 3J but you won't convince me to join you. I'm not going to expend effort convincing you that you are wrong.

Yup, this sure is the model of a civilian BTSC partnership, 3J.

Good read.

[Marmot]

Quin, do you really believe that Wilgy placing one vote away from the larger wagons is good reason to remove him from candidacy to be mafia? That strikes me as an incredibly dubious thing.

I didn't remove him anything. You're removing people from it based on a single reason to town read them, which I think is bogus considering I can think of more reasons to scum read many players than town read them. Playing by your logic, however, I think my reason for 'removing him' is a good one. I'm more inclined to scum read anyone who tries to discredit alternative votes than scum read him for sticking to his own suspicion.

People who suspect me to whatever degree: I have a request/demand for you.

Tell me who my supposed living team mate is.

marmot. I think you have a weak reason to add him to your list of town reads and his voting pattern so far is suspicious.

Sorry about my inactivity, I have been reading, but uni work demotivated me a lot from this today. I'll be sporadically active tomorrow.

As a matter of fact, Quin's suspicion of me arose from Jay asking him (and anyone else) to name a secondary suspect after himself. Quin's suspicion of me looks like it was made up on the fly in my opinion.

This post came from the middle of Day 3.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Night 1: Boomslang and Wilgy 1.0; They were both fairly non-entities, Wilgy being Wilgy, and Boomslang voting for Leetic/Golden 2.0 after Leetic made his one weird post that's still somehow still getting quoted. Neither I couldn't see a bad 3J, Scotty, and Rey team going after.

The reasons you provide to justify your stance are observations, not supporting evidence. Yes, Wilgy was being Wilgy, and yes Boomslang voted for leetic. What does that have to do with whether I'd kill them? I've asserted already that they're both strategically crappy kills, so contest that.

Night 2: Ricochet and Golden 1.0; Golden's someone I could see being a prime SK target. Someone who was uber-active, uber-opinionated, and widely seen as civ would be hard to contend with. Ricochet makes perfect sense to me as a 3J kill. After getting into numerous disagreements, they sunk into a passive-aggressive weird-ass relationship where Rico would vote with 3J while sarcastically making fun of the reasoning 3J provided. Rico in this game was all bizarre Trump tweets and indignation, someone I could see a 3J baddie team wanting out.

You just said I would kill a guy who had been voting alongside me prior to that. Rico's sarcasm was annoying sure, but if I was bad he would have been playing into my hands. Killing him would be counterproductive. Killing Golden would be suicidal.

Night 3: DrWilgy and Epignosis; Remember when 3J directly told the SK to get out a baddie or else we all may be screwed? Lookie at what happened. Now, this is a WIFOM minefield, but the scenario that makes the most sense to me is the SK killing Wilgy, and 3J using that as cover to eliminate Epi, a player who was both unpredictable, clever, and against him.

Wait what? You're saying I used the Wilgy kill "as cover"? If I'm bad how the hell would I even know that's coming? Maybe I don't understand your point.

Also, waiting until Epignosis literally said "I don't think you're bad anymore" to kill him is dumb.

These kills often work out quite well for 3J. At least, half of the time.

You haven't shown that. You've shown nothing, frankly. You're either buried so deep in your tunnel that you've lost sight of reason, or you're pushing my lynch because it's the only option you've left yourself with after bullshitting it all game long.

Did anyone else notice that Rey's alignment was revealed in much the same way as Scotty's? Meaning that Scotty most likely didn't have some special seemer role.

I think G-Man is just trolling us with these delayed reveals, and there isn't an explicit role-based mechanical reason for them.

Meaning that if 3J was Scotty's teammate, he'd have no idea that Scotty would initially flip civ. So there's no reason for him not to defend Scotty.

The "seemer" detail is barely meaningful. The point is that my attempt to lynch you over Scotty was always a low-probability endeavor, and that means that if I am bad I was intentionally setting myself up to look like a jackass. That's why it ought to make me look better, not worse. It isn't WIFOM, it's common sense.

"This guy is acting too damn scummy to really be scum."

Golden literally said the opposite of that. I'm acting too damned townie to really be scum.

Either 3J is playing the worst scum game ever or the worst town game ever. I think he's cannily manipulating you, Golden, and using his thread cachet to spread the suspicion, and quash any legitimate cases against him.

Hell no.

Now, with the reywaS scum flip, I have contributed just as much net positive to the civilian win chance as you have (given your Scotty vote and otherwise town votes). Beyond that, I have provided five times the effort level. This hasn't been my best town game ever, but the moment reywaS re-flipped it suddenly became a good one. Despite playing this entire damned game under the spotlight, constantly dealing with these crap accusations from all directions, I managed to lynch a player I wanted lynched on the most pressured day phase of all. And he was bad. I'm going to pat myself on the damned back for that one.

He would have voted for literally anyone other than himself. He certainly said enough and set up enough in the thread to basically justify anything. Plus, there's the ol' self-preservation excuse.

False. I said more than once on Day 3 that I was willing to vote for three players -- reywaS, DrWilgy, or you. If the counterwagon to my own had been anyone else, I'd have self-voted. To lynch another townie instead of me would have been a disaster, because it would have just gotten me lynched next. Two for the price of one and probably game over.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

INH 'something does not have to give'. You can feel free to vote for 3J but you won't convince me to join you. I'm not going to expend effort convincing you that you are wrong.

Yup, this sure is the model of a civilian BTSC partnership, 3J.

Good read.

Well that sells me that you're not in BTSC. Cool.

Otherwise I don't know why this post exists. Am I stupid for positing the theory?

[insertnamehere]

So, Golden has been taken in by the paradoxical WIFOM tornado of scumminess that is 3J.

Quin and Marmot are now at each others throats for some reason.

And 3J is just encouraging the Quin and Marmot thing, drawing a line in the sand between him, Golden, Marmot and the treasonous Quin.

Quin and Sloonei, what's your read on 3J?

I feel at this point, forcing a tie is the best possible scenario here.

Marmot, are you dedicated to voting Quin?

[Marmot]

So, Golden has been taken in by the paradoxical WIFOM tornado of scumminess that is 3J.

Quin and Marmot are now at each others throats for some reason.

And 3J is just encouraging the Quin and Marmot thing, drawing a line in the sand between him, Golden, Marmot and the treasonous Quin.

Quin and Sloonei, what's your read on 3J?

I feel at this point, forcing a tie is the best possible scenario here.

Marmot, are you dedicated to voting Quin?

At this moment, yes. I'm less willing to vote for Jay today than I was yesterday.

I'll go ahead and vote. Quin

[Golden]

Then again, I believe that the only difference between how 3J/Golden and everyone else plays the game is a combination of apathy towards lynched civilians, complete and utter conviction in reads that will never be doubted for a second, (that last one describes Golden more than 3J) and an air of superiority.

Touche.

[Marmot]

INH 'something does not have to give'. You can feel free to vote for 3J but you won't convince me to join you. I'm not going to expend effort convincing you that you are wrong.

Yup, this sure is the model of a civilian BTSC partnership, 3J.

Good read.

Well that sells me that you're not in BTSC. Cool.

Otherwise I don't know why this post exists. Am I stupid for positing the theory?

I don't think any theory is a stupid one (unless it's Matt's... don't tell him I said that).

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Marmot, honest answer if you would:

Would you have been as likely to pursue a lynch of reywaS had I not spent the entirety of Night 2 and Day 3 talking about reywaS/Wilgy as the remaining scum via process of elimination?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I almost get the impression INH is mad that reywaS re-flipped, because it made me less wrong.

[Marmot]

Marmot, honest answer if you would:

Would you have been as likely to pursue a lynch of reywaS had I not spent the entirety of Night 2 and Day 3 talking about reywaS/Wilgy as the remaining scum via process of elimination?

That was certainly part of it. I think I mentioned it before, but I found your PoE very insightful, which was why I opted to take a look at reywaS/Wilgy.

But there were other factors. For one, Epignosis gave me pause in my own train of thought when he commented on how much civilians suck here. But that made me think about how baddies normally act on the Syndicate, and they spend way too much time coasting while civilians fight amongst each other. Another reason to go with a quiet/inactive vote.

Furthermore, I don't like to be wrong about players I vote to lynch, but there are some I'd rather be more wrong about than others. You've played a fabulous game (and you aren't the only one). reywaS hasn't been here. I'd rather lose to you than reywaS in this scenario.

[Sloonei]

The good news is I have no work to do between now and Sunday. The bad news is I'm tired and watching west coast baseball, so my activity in this thread will have to wait until tomorrow. But it's coming. This time I'm serious.

If anyone has things they want me to address/look at that I haven't already, feel free to throw them at me.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

The good news is I have no work to do between now and Sunday. The bad news is I'm tired and watching west coast baseball, so my activity in this thread will have to wait until tomorrow. But it's coming. This time I'm serious.

If anyone has things they want me to address/look at that I haven't already, feel free to throw them at me.

I'd just like to see you make a substantive read on every remaining player. I don't mean you need to put up a bunch of ISOs -- but ideally you could look at post histories and share your current judgments with a fuller understanding of the context.

[Sloonei]

The good news is I have no work to do between now and Sunday. The bad news is I'm tired and watching west coast baseball, so my activity in this thread will have to wait until tomorrow. But it's coming. This time I'm serious.

If anyone has things they want me to address/look at that I haven't already, feel free to throw them at me.

I'd just like to see you make a substantive read on every remaining player. I don't mean you need to put up a bunch of ISOs -- but ideally you could look at post histories and share your current judgments with a fuller understanding of the context.

I intend to.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I'd rather lose to you than reywaS in this scenario.

That's a mindset I can definitely appreciate. At the worst of the anti-JJJ propaganda around here in this game, I was certain town would be losing this game to Wilgy and/or reywaS. And that would have been horrid.

[Golden]

I wish inh had done more than just go after Jay and bag me I want to know more about his thought processes on others.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I wish inh had done more than just go after Jay and bag me I want to know more about his thought processes on others.

One thing I will say about INH which might work in his favor, even in terms of SK candidacy:

If he is bad, he has gone below the belt with the methods he has employed. To devote so many posts to criticizing people for things that are more about how they play than whether they're bad as a manipulative strategy is not something I would be willing to do as a bad guy. It's not just about what is strategically best, but also what promotes the best gamesmanship. I don't know INH well enough to make that judgment call.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I think the most suspicious player at face value is INH.

I think the most suspicious player by the evidence is Quin.

I have a little tinfoil going on with MM, but it's tinfoil.

[Golden]

If anyone is 'taking me in' it will turn out to be marmot.

His talk about what good civilian play looks like is like giving a girl roses on a first date.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I should probably be more afraid of Sloonei than I am.

[Golden]

I think the most suspicious player at face value is INH.

I think the most suspicious player by the evidence is Quin.

I have a little tinfoil going on with MM, but it's tinfoil.

Where do you stand on sloonster and me, at the moment?

linki, lol.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I think the most suspicious player at face value is INH.

I think the most suspicious player by the evidence is Quin.

I have a little tinfoil going on with MM, but it's tinfoil.

Where do you stand on sloonster and me, at the moment?

linki, lol.

The biggest concern I could voice about you is that your continued defenses of me are a pocketing tactic as much as an honest conveyance of your perspective. That could have been said of Golden 1.0 too though and he was town.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Actually the biggest concern about Golden 2.0 is that he is also leetic, and who knows WTF to do with leetic. I honestly think that if leetic was some manner of non-townie, we're in trouble because there's no evidence to support it given leetic's silence and the fact that neither dead scum had much to say about him (other than Scotty's semi-self-preservation vote).