Retrocausality Mafia - ENDGAME: A Reprieve in the Desert

[Kylemii]

It's Kyle. I'm like 95% sure. Two scum left = Epi and Kyle.

bad news, it turns out it's suddenly illegal to accuse me late game based on nothing? the real life police are coming to take you to real life jail as we speak.

[MacDougall]

It's Kyle. I'm like 95% sure. Two scum left = Epi and Kyle.

bad news, it turns out it's suddenly illegal to accuse me late game based on nothing? the real life police are coming to take you to real life jail as we speak.

I dunno, worked out for the civs last time.

[MacDougall]

If it makes you feel better it's because I feel like you have been blendy the entire game. Every person who has said you are playing the same as U-Pick is right. It's a carbon copy.

[MacDougall]

Colin don't you get a double vote if you win?

[Kylemii]

If it makes you feel better it's because I feel like you have been blendy the entire game. Every person who has said you are playing the same as U-Pick is right. It's a carbon copy.

yeah but that's bullshit and ignores every single other game where I've played the exact same way. this isn't new.

[Kylemii]

It's Kyle. I'm like 95% sure. Two scum left = Epi and Kyle.

bad news, it turns out it's suddenly illegal to accuse me late game based on nothing? the real life police are coming to take you to real life jail as we speak.

I dunno, worked out for the civs last time.

i was lynched in u pick cus of juliets cop-work, that's different. I'm talking about games like ancient greece.

[MacDougall]

If it makes you feel better it's because I feel like you have been blendy the entire game. Every person who has said you are playing the same as U-Pick is right. It's a carbon copy.

yeah but that's bullshit and ignores every single other game where I've played the exact same way. this isn't new.

Yeah but it's fresh meta and is relevant despite what you say.

[Kylemii]

okay and you decided this on your own? you've decided what meta is relevant and what meta isn't cus you're mac, and that's your like your job or something?

[Kylemii]

point any one thing out about upick that's relatable to my gameplay here but not also relatable to every other game I've played in my entire life then you can come over and talk to me about "fresh meta"

I've put effort into following my instincts in these games, doing my best to solve shit cus i want speedchuck's top spot, don't put that cheap garbage in my mailbox just cus you don't know where else to put it.

[Spacedaisy]

No Colin you can't win the election tonight, you are caught in PoE.

I'd like to submit Juliets for the Election.

She is universally trusted and unlikely to die since she has no night power to speak of any longer. Which reminds me, if we still have a doctor out there consider me please. II am nearing the end of my usefulness but I have one more trick up my sleeve.

[Kylemii]

juliets asked to be made into a killing machine in rimworld and I've never respected her more

Juliets for time president, 2020

[Spacedaisy]

[Quin]

juliets asked to be made into a killing machine in rimworld and I've never respected her more

Juliets for time president, 2020

That's what happens when you recruit a psychopath.

[Quin]

oops

[sprityo]

Juliets thenfor the poll yeah?

[Spacedaisy]

Yes [votejuliets[/vote]

[juliets]

Thanks you guys, this happens to be Golden's submission so I am happy if elected.

Epi, so you are saying you're not a doctor? Why did you say earlier you are a doctor? What are you then?

I'm very surprised about sig because here, he universally is accepted as bad but his voting for Mac says otherwise.

[mention]Golden[/mention], Moobyworld was exactly my thought too!

Mac, I'm glad to see someone else sees U-Pick when they look at Kyle. Kyle I hear what you're saying about your meta and maybe I should look at another game. Can you name one where you were civ?

I have work again today so I'll be back this afternoon and then I will need to vote tomorrow if I live tonight because I will be enroute to the lake on Friday and not sure I'll get there before EOD and many times the internet doesn't work immediately when we get there. Good news is EOD will be at 10 instead of 11 cause I'm changing time zones so maybe I will be able to keep my eyes open that long, lol!

[MacDougall]

okay and you decided this on your own? you've decided what meta is relevant and what meta isn't cus you're mac, and that's your like your job or something?

On a completely different subject I'm a civ stump all but confirmed and I'm telling you tomorrow is lylo and rather than find bad guys you're just posting rubbish like this.

I'm a pragmatic guy. Show me the civ in there Kyle. Give us some civ effort. Colin and Sprityo have your measure there so far. You can't just cruise through the end game and expect your faction to win, Mafia or civ.

[MacDougall]

point any one thing out about upick that's relatable to my gameplay here but not also relatable to every other game I've played in my entire life then you can come over and talk to me about "fresh meta"

I've put effort into following my instincts in these games, doing my best to solve shit cus i want speedchuck's top spot, don't put that cheap garbage in my mailbox just cus you don't know where else to put it.

This is probably your driving interest here I have no doubt. Given you have inspiration to win this game as you've indicated the question to ask yourselves my time vandal bretheren is which of our best Kyle are we seeing. Is this Kyle's red hot civ effort, or his red hot Mafia effort? I think when you analyse it as such it's a pretty interesting realisation one finds themselves having.

[MacDougall]

You are asking quite a lot of me Kyle, to ignore the clear distinctions to draw between here and your U-Pick performance (which was a great Mafia effort with the same reward on display for you there as here), and go and seek out civ games, analyse them and push aside my suspicions of you on that basis. Perhaps, given you want the win so much and you say you are a civ, you would in fact do a courtesy to make said task easier for me, rather than asking something that you probably know I won't do.

[MacDougall]

No Colin you can't win the election tonight, you are caught in PoE.

I'd like to submit Juliets for the Election.

She is universally trusted and unlikely to die since she has no night power to speak of any longer. Which reminds me, if we still have a doctor out there consider me please. II am nearing the end of my usefulness but I have one more trick up my sleeve.

The consideration as it pertains to Colin is that if he is telling the truth and he gets a double vote should he correctly predict an election then ensuring his prediction is correct might be our only way to not lose the game tonight should the Mafia be Epignosis, Kyle and Sprityo or some other combination of three (including you, I still don't know what this confirmation gambit you claim you're going to present to me is).

Should he be telling the truth and he is in fact bad, doing so almost guarantees we lose the game because I am rather certain there are two Mafia left alive right now.

Not taking the chance that he is town runs the risk of us losing the game now.

I don't think there are three Mafia left though. I would say the chances are something like 70 percent likely there are 2, 25 percent likely there is 1 and 5 percent likely there is 3.

But I also don't think Colin is bad. I have been on his page for a lot of the game, and his defenses and effort has been sound. Golden was right that he was oppositional towards many lynches though ... which is definitely a common thing a good and involved scum player will do whether they are defending teammates or civilians.

[MacDougall]

Epignosis, does any of my Kyle analysis move you?

[ColinIsCool]

No Colin you can't win the election tonight, you are caught in PoE.

I'd like to submit Juliets for the Election.

She is universally trusted and unlikely to die since she has no night power to speak of any longer. Which reminds me, if we still have a doctor out there consider me please. II am nearing the end of my usefulness but I have one more trick up my sleeve.

Yeah I know I wouldn’t win lol. Juliets is the smartest choice.

[juliets]

Hmmm food for thought Mac re Colin.

Colin, sorry if I missed this but who is on your potential baddie list at this time?

[MacDougall]

No Colin you can't win the election tonight, you are caught in PoE.

I'd like to submit Juliets for the Election.

She is universally trusted and unlikely to die since she has no night power to speak of any longer. Which reminds me, if we still have a doctor out there consider me please. II am nearing the end of my usefulness but I have one more trick up my sleeve.

Yeah I know I wouldn’t win lol. Juliets is the smartest choice.

So you have not correctly predicted an election once? Turnip Head found the same conditions so easy he managed to do it within 3 elections.

[ColinIsCool]

No Colin you can't win the election tonight, you are caught in PoE.

I'd like to submit Juliets for the Election.

She is universally trusted and unlikely to die since she has no night power to speak of any longer. Which reminds me, if we still have a doctor out there consider me please. II am nearing the end of my usefulness but I have one more trick up my sleeve.

Yeah I know I wouldn’t win lol. Juliets is the smartest choice.

So you have not correctly predicted an election once? Turnip Head found the same conditions so easy he managed to do it within 3 elections.

Yep ... I picked people all on the wrong days I guess. I trusted you and picked you one night, Scotty when I should have said Golden, Epi night 1 I think, just a bunch of guesses really. Don’t know how TH did it aside from rallying everyone to it and them listening.

[MacDougall]

No Colin you can't win the election tonight, you are caught in PoE.

I'd like to submit Juliets for the Election.

She is universally trusted and unlikely to die since she has no night power to speak of any longer. Which reminds me, if we still have a doctor out there consider me please. II am nearing the end of my usefulness but I have one more trick up my sleeve.

Yeah I know I wouldn’t win lol. Juliets is the smartest choice.

So you have not correctly predicted an election once? Turnip Head found the same conditions so easy he managed to do it within 3 elections.

Yep ... I picked people all on the wrong days I guess. I trusted you and picked you one night, Scotty when I should have said Golden, Epi night 1 I think, just a bunch of guesses really. Don’t know how TH did it aside from rallying everyone to it and them listening.

I am not sure that Turnip Head pushed it much. Every candidate he guessed with the exception of me seemed to naturally get the nod. Are you saying that you predicted yourself tonight? How could you have expected to win this vote given the suspicion of you?

[ColinIsCool]

Hmmm food for thought Mac re Colin.

Colin, sorry if I missed this but who is on your potential baddie list at this time?

When Mac asked me for town reads it kinda went in order so it would be sprit, Kyle, and Epignosis. I was skeptical of the town core for a little bit (mostly because of Golden) but it doesn’t make sense to be.

[MacDougall]

Analysing who is bad out of the remaining POE is obviously challenged given we have no flips to look at.

I am putting together an analysis that scores on a few factors. Hopefully it points at someone.

[ColinIsCool]

No Colin you can't win the election tonight, you are caught in PoE.

I'd like to submit Juliets for the Election.

She is universally trusted and unlikely to die since she has no night power to speak of any longer. Which reminds me, if we still have a doctor out there consider me please. II am nearing the end of my usefulness but I have one more trick up my sleeve.

Yeah I know I wouldn’t win lol. Juliets is the smartest choice.

So you have not correctly predicted an election once? Turnip Head found the same conditions so easy he managed to do it within 3 elections.

Yep ... I picked people all on the wrong days I guess. I trusted you and picked you one night, Scotty when I should have said Golden, Epi night 1 I think, just a bunch of guesses really. Don’t know how TH did it aside from rallying everyone to it and them listening.

I am not sure that Turnip Head pushed it much. Every candidate he guessed with the exception of me seemed to naturally get the nod. Are you saying that you predicted yourself tonight? How could you have expected to win this vote given the suspicion of you?

No I totally didn’t predict myself. In fact I forgot to send in my prediction so I don’t know who it randomized to.

[MacDougall]

That seems unfair. Speedchuck didn't tell you who it randomised to so you don't get a chance to push that direction?

[ColinIsCool]

That seems unfair. Speedchuck didn't tell you who it randomised to so you don't get a chance to push that direction?

Well, I don’t think he’s awake yet/looking at the site.

[MacDougall]

That seems unfair. Speedchuck didn't tell you who it randomised to so you don't get a chance to push that direction?

Well, I don’t think he’s awake yet/looking at the site.

At what point do you submit your prediction?

[MacDougall]

Colin you say you trusted me and picked me one night, you picked me on night one, at what point did you start trusting me?

[ColinIsCool]

Before EOD. It wouldn’t make sense to submit one during the Night since I could just look at the poll every time

[ColinIsCool]

Colin you say you trusted me and picked me one night, you picked me on night one, at what point did you start trusting me?

No I think I picked Epi Night 1 and sorta prodded him but didn’t want to out myself yet. I started trusting you probably right around then. I have tried to stay away from picking people that I didn’t feel decent about since it’d be a kinda win-win if I was right

[MacDougall]

Colin you say you trusted me and picked me one night, you picked me on night one, at what point did you start trusting me?

No I think I picked Epi Night 1 and sorta prodded him but didn’t want to out myself yet. I started trusting you probably right around then. I have tried to stay away from picking people that I didn’t feel decent about since it’d be a kinda win-win if I was right

Sorry, you voted for me night one instead of for sig or Golden. But you picked Epi night one?

[ColinIsCool]

Colin you say you trusted me and picked me one night, you picked me on night one, at what point did you start trusting me?

No I think I picked Epi Night 1 and sorta prodded him but didn’t want to out myself yet. I started trusting you probably right around then. I have tried to stay away from picking people that I didn’t feel decent about since it’d be a kinda win-win if I was right

Sorry, you voted for me night one instead of for sig or Golden. But you picked Epi night one?

Yeah I felt pretty good at him at the start of the game.

[ColinIsCool]

*about

[MacDougall]

I think it is interesting that the night votes have ended up being relatively one way streets. There weren't many night polls where one candidate didn't get unanimously voted for, which means the Mafia were at best not willing to push against them.

After a little analysis I have come back around on sig being bad. In the interest of solving the game it's easier to assume that he was and I seem to be relatively alone in thinking he was civ so I will defer to my betters and analyse as though he was bad.

[MacDougall]

Colin, if you are Mafia, well done. You have fooled me.

[ColinIsCool]

Colin, if you are Mafia, well done. You have fooled me.

Maybe next time

[MacDougall]

I am quite confident Lapluie and Lunalee were both bad. Sig, well I'm going to assume so. We should try to analyse their interactions with those not in the POE, ie. Epignosis, Kyle, Sprityo/Choutas and Colin.

[MacDougall]

just read through her iso, lapluie's posts don't ping me much at all. her tone seems genuine and i trust hee

kyle, to be blunt about this. there's nothing to be pinged about. there's genuine posts....about nothing. it's like looking at a blank piece of paper and saying "this doesnt look bad, and i like the color. so it's a good work of art."

im bad at metaphors but that's how im interpreting the above

You're bad at similes.

You're also bad.

Epi where do you currently stand on sprityo?

How would you rank Sprityo, Kyle and Colin in terms of bad to good?

[MacDougall]

Colonialbob is available to replace Lapluie, albeit at low effort since he won't be around at certain times.

I am uncertain whether to do this or just let things run their course.

The fact that you're asking confirms lapluie is bad. Let us lynch her.

Flawed logic at its finest

The fact that you just said "flawed logic at its finest" says plenty.

You appear to have consistent suspicions of sprityo. Do they remain? Is he who you would lynch tomorrow?

[MacDougall]

Epignosis pushed against the sig lynch but was one of the main people pushing for both Lunalee and Lapluie. He looks good from the interactions.

[MacDougall]

Kyle's posts have been mainly fluff or interacting with/around Daisy. I like his Daisy posts, but mafia can civ read people so NAI. Though if one is mafia i'd look closely at the other.

Strongly reading Spacedaisy as town at this point. Kyle not so much.

Why

Why not?

Spacedaisy seems like her usual self and her opinions have been largely rational in an OTT townie way.

Kyle has been blendy and is giving me the impression he is posting less than he could be ie. hiding.

how much do you think i could be posting? are there some sort of really important day 1 mystery topics that require my exact personal input, mac?

You have a habit of getting reeeally prickly when I suspect you don't you? What is it about me that has that effect on you?

[MacDougall]

God damn it

what theme are you using? why is it baby blue

Just relocated that old post of mine and will note that two of them are still alive.

[MacDougall]

um.... do we know what the elections actually do

If sig is bad and he is his partner, is this a question he asks in order to seem uninformed? At this point sig has got his item so if he is Mafia, his teammates know what the night elections do. It's a mildly good look imo.

[MacDougall]

If anything Kylemii looks better than Epi for interactions as he was pushing the candidates and also had it in for sig from the get go.

In this game there is little value in bussing given it's challenging at best, impossible at worst to actually reap the credibility from nailing scum. In this game the scum are likely to be more confident in protecting each other and counterwagoning.

This makes me reconsider the alignment of Lapluie and to a lesser extent Lunalee. There is little value in scum not trying to push another wagon on that day, they wouldn't have much to answer for and if anything could have looked civilian for the effort of being discerning.

This game is so fucking hard to analyse with any methodology. It's almost better just looking for slips, tone and contradiction.