Hogwarts Mafia - END

[Sloonei]

Sloonei, could you please provide some quick gut reads on the people you didn't remove from your POE pool?

Jack - He was my first suspect based on a very minimal reading of his posts. I haven't abandoned that, but I also haven't followed up on it. I've not seen him doing anything alarming since my initial accusation, but I also haven't looked too closely. He'd be in the closest-to-neutral tier of scum reads on a hypothetical rainbow list.

This is not a read.

kara - I'm hardly aware that they're in the game. That's as much my fault as theirs, but they've been quiet so there's not much I can do here (unless, you know, I start to read things)

This is not a read.

Luna - Town read, but not comfortable taking her out of this pool. The way INH treated her did not strike me as a teammate interaction.

Why aren't you comfortable?

Mac - I never really can read Mac even though we've been playing together for 100 years. I haven't discerned any notable scum-tells in that time. Sometimes I pick up on town-tells though, and I haven't done that here. As I mentioned in my last post, he seems like someone to talk about after the current episode ends.

This is not a read.

Quin - Implicated in a night action dispute with speed. Questions all around, and it seems prudent to pursue one of these two.

This is not a read.

speedchuck - Implicated in a night action dispute with quin. Questions all around, and it seems prudent to pursue one of these two. I might favor speed's version of events if not for the other evidence (poutanko's ID) against him.

This is not a read.

sprit - Has sprit done anything yet?

This is not a read.

F-minus

I have not read, so it makes sense that i wouldn't have reads.

[speedchuck]

Why would I be redirected, though? Especially to Timmer?

If they know you're a watcher, redirecting you to the Not Kill Target would be the idea.

This is all convoluted and I am leaning in the direction of not caring. Straight up reads are more reliable at this point, IMO.

Can use one to generate the other.

Anyway Quin is scum unless he admits to being the Vig and somehow convinces of that.

I don't think scum has the manpower to affect Timmer (which is what I saw if I was redirected there), redirect me, obliviate and block Pout, kill Epi, AND bring back INH.

It makes more sense if scum Rezzed INH, tried to protect LC, killed Epi, and did something to Pout.

Still four actions, but it assumes less than five. And how many scum do we have anyway? How many actions can they use? Egh.

Quin prolly bad or foolish vig. If he's not either, then ??? is probably bad.

[speedchuck]

yeah, no Quin is a liar. #lynchallliars

At least after you lynch me.

[karavalenge]

Sloonei, could you please provide some quick gut reads on the people you didn't remove from your POE pool?

kara - I'm hardly aware that they're in the game. That's as much my fault as theirs, but they've been quiet so there's not much I can do here (unless, you know, I start to read things)

I've just been quietly trying to get myself killed in the Night phases so I can pass peacefully in my sleep rather than worry about arguments.

I'm sorry if the game has been a headache, kara. We can be an intense bunch sometimes, but it's just because we're chums who know each other well and like to win. I'm glad you're playing with us and I hope you continue to do so!

You might suspect me for being nice again, but that's okay. I'm not worried about it. I want new people to enjoy their time here.

I think people are just mostly crazy the first two days. It's gotten a lot calmer now. Comparatively.

[ColinIsCool]

I dunno, Speed. You’ve been pretty solidly townread minus residual Bullzeye stuff so I would guess, if good, you’re a target for scum-chicanery. But I really don’t kniw how to handle any of this. You aren’t going down like a scum who has been caught unless you’re laying traps, but why would we listen to you if you flip bad anyway?

I think it’s possible Speed is town but it’s probably for the good of the town that we either lynch him now and get time to sort this out after, or lynch INH and vig him/lynch him shortly thereafter. Which is weird to say, but, uh, yeah.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I have not read, so it makes sense that i wouldn't have reads.

So you're saying you need to... catch up?

[ColinIsCool]

Remaining scum are in this pile: INH, Speed, Sloonei, Quin, Luna, sprit. Objections?

[juliets]

I totally agree with Jay's statement about speed's reaction to a red check. I think most people would be reacting with more emotion.

Cop checks I get. Can't be helped, fate is sealed, no reason to get all hot. But this line of reasoning is stupid.

Just got home and am catching up - what exactly is stupid?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Remaining scum are in this pile: INH, Speed, Sloonei, Quin, Luna, sprit. Objections?

My POE is the same, except Luna is swapped for Jack.

[Sloonei]

I have not read, so it makes sense that i wouldn't have reads.

So you're saying you need to... catch up?

I'm saying I need to be more engaged in general if I'm going to be able to offer the sort of reads you (and I) would like to see. It's been harder to find time/energy for that than I was anticipating. Even now I'm just poking my head on this thread while I'm in the middle of doing something else.

[speedchuck]

I dunno, Speed. You’ve been pretty solidly townread minus residual Bullzeye stuff so I would guess, if good, you’re a target for scum-chicanery.

I'll address this in a minute. It's nigh impossible for me to have been redirected last night.

[speedchuck]

I totally agree with Jay's statement about speed's reaction to a red check. I think most people would be reacting with more emotion.

Cop checks I get. Can't be helped, fate is sealed, no reason to get all hot. But this line of reasoning is stupid.

Just got home and am catching up - what exactly is stupid?

Saying that I'm scum because I wasn't outraged about a cop check.

That's like being outraged because it's raining. There's nothing you can do about it. It happened, and now I have to deal with it. I'd rather be outraged when people scumread me for staying calm, because what even is that?

[nutella]

Remaining scum are in this pile: INH, Speed, Sloonei, Quin, Luna, sprit. Objections?

Not Luna. If I have to replace her with another name I'd say you or Jack

[nutella]

Remaining scum are in this pile: INH, Speed, Sloonei, Quin, Luna, sprit. Objections?

My POE is the same, except Luna is swapped for Jack.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I'm saying I need to be more engaged in general if I'm going to be able to offer the sort of reads you (and I) would like to see. It's been harder to find time/energy for that than I was anticipating. Even now I'm just poking my head on this thread while I'm in the middle of doing something else.

Jack
kara
Luna
Mac
Quin
Bullzeye \ speed
sprityo

Go.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Let's work out the numbers so we can be more comfortable in our POE efforts.

The game began with 24 players. Given typical ratios, that is likely to amount to 5 or 6 mafia members. Considering the presence if civilian vigilante(s) as we've seen it, the safer assumption is probably 6.

If you accept that premise, we began at 18 vs. 6. Independents could influence this number, though I don't think there's been any evidence to indicate that one exists. It's not in the role list, and that could be interpreted as a bastardization or a host lie (as DDL has assured us is not the case). This isn't a slam dunk, but it's where I lean. So, 18 vs. 6.

We have 16 players alive. 2 mafia members are dead, and one more is confirmed among us. That leaves us with a theoretical present ratio of 12 vs. 4. In a standard one-lynch/one-kill progression, that would leave us with three mislynches until a MyLo phase at 6 vs. 4. Obviously, that standard progression has not existed to this point and is highly unlikely to exist, so we will have to continually monitor the numbers as they adapt.

If INH is successfully lynched today, we'd enter the night at 12 vs. 3. Worst-case scenario given what we've seen so far, three civilians are killed in the night phase (one by the mafia team, one by a vigilante, and one more by whatever other means). That'd result in 9 vs. 3 the following day. That's the worst scenario (and it still isn't terrible). If a mafioso again dies during the night phase, the dynamic is much brighter for the civilians. We have a clear lead right now, but complacency will murder us if we allow it to.

I think a good POE number to aspire to right now is then 6. If you can contain an entire mafia team of four members (including INH) within your six, then we should have enough mislynches available to win the game. It's a team effort though, so get to it. If anyone sees a flaw in my math or my logic, lemme have it.

What about horocruxes?

[Jackofhearts2005]

#helping

[JaggedJimmyJay]

That's like being outraged because it's raining. There's nothing you can do about it. It happened, and now I have to deal with it. I'd rather be outraged when people scumread me for staying calm, because what even is that?

The comparison is not accurate. You spent zero seconds exploring the potential that poutanko wasn't being truthful, which doesn't even have to reflect a mafia alignment.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

What about horocruxes?

If those are a thing and there's more than one, then that's poop. We'll have to see.

[speedchuck]

That's like being outraged because it's raining. There's nothing you can do about it. It happened, and now I have to deal with it. I'd rather be outraged when people scumread me for staying calm, because what even is that?

The comparison is not accurate. You spent zero seconds exploring the potential that poutanko wasn't being truthful, which doesn't even have to reflect a mafia alignment.

Town-faked reads usually don't have an account for multiple nights. Scum faked reads are a good way to out yourself. And Pout has been voting bulls for days. Obviously not fake.

[speedchuck]

I was not redirected last night, most likely. I am in a floo chat right now and my partner claimed to diriwhatzit me. For a redirect to target me and send me at timmer, it would have to have targeted them first.

What are the odds of a perfect double redirect?

I saw Quin kissing long con.
He is a liar.

[Lunalee]

I dunno, Speed. You’ve been pretty solidly townread minus residual Bullzeye stuff so I would guess, if good, you’re a target for scum-chicanery. But I really don’t kniw how to handle any of this. You aren’t going down like a scum who has been caught unless you’re laying traps, but why would we listen to you if you flip bad anyway?

I think it’s possible Speed is town but it’s probably for the good of the town that we either lynch him now and get time to sort this out after, or lynch INH and vig him/lynch him shortly thereafter. Which is weird to say, but, uh, yeah.

In no universe does it make sense to lynch speedchuck before we lynch INH.

[Jackofhearts2005]

This one time I caught Golden and this was a secret code for me to point back to later.

Are you talking about Phenon? I've been thinking about that one.

You’re ruining my secret code.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Sloonei, could you please provide some quick gut reads on the people you didn't remove from your POE pool?

Jack - He was my first suspect based on a very minimal reading of his posts. I haven't abandoned that, but I also haven't followed up on it. I've not seen him doing anything alarming since my initial accusation, but I also haven't looked too closely. He'd be in the closest-to-neutral tier of scum reads on a hypothetical rainbow list.

This is not a read.

kara - I'm hardly aware that they're in the game. That's as much my fault as theirs, but they've been quiet so there's not much I can do here (unless, you know, I start to read things)

This is not a read.

Luna - Town read, but not comfortable taking her out of this pool. The way INH treated her did not strike me as a teammate interaction.

Why aren't you comfortable?

Mac - I never really can read Mac even though we've been playing together for 100 years. I haven't discerned any notable scum-tells in that time. Sometimes I pick up on town-tells though, and I haven't done that here. As I mentioned in my last post, he seems like someone to talk about after the current episode ends.

This is not a read.

Quin - Implicated in a night action dispute with speed. Questions all around, and it seems prudent to pursue one of these two.

This is not a read.

speedchuck - Implicated in a night action dispute with quin. Questions all around, and it seems prudent to pursue one of these two. I might favor speed's version of events if not for the other evidence (poutanko's ID) against him.

This is not a read.

sprit - Has sprit done anything yet?

This is not a read.

F-minus

I have not read, so it makes sense that i wouldn't have reads.

Flawless logic.

[Jackofhearts2005]

I’m taking Sloonei out of my poe.

[speedchuck]

Let's make another summary:

Quin's claim: Expecto Patronum directed at Timmer and Sloonei. Blocks redirects and other dark arts for Quin, Timmer, Sloonei.

Speed's claim: Quin visited Long Con.

For both claims to be true:
Timmer had to use a diricawl on Long Con. Didn't happen, or I'd have seen it. Timmer also denies it. NOT POSSIBLE.
Or
A redirector had to target (my floo partner), aiming to redirect them at Timmer for some reason. I got caught in it instead. I got directed at Timmer, and saw Quin there with ???. This adds an extra scum night action when we already know they did a lot of things. It also nails my other spotted suspect as scum. NEAR IMPOSSIBLE.

Quin is lying. His story doesn't make sense, he targeted Sloonei for some reason, he only revealed one target at first.

I am almost certain that Quin tried to Patronus Long Con and my other visitor broke through it with the Elder Wand. Surprisingly, it requires the least assumptions.

-

This, unless someone wants to propose other options, is my final word on that. Quin is 90% lying for some reason. The other 10% are random mechanical screwery. Quin is likely scum due to this. I'll stand by that.

Jay is right that we should probably not focus on this to the exclusion of reads, so I'll just leave it there for now.

[speedchuck]

I’m taking Sloonei out of my poe.

Which way?

[ColinIsCool]

I dunno, Speed. You’ve been pretty solidly townread minus residual Bullzeye stuff so I would guess, if good, you’re a target for scum-chicanery. But I really don’t kniw how to handle any of this. You aren’t going down like a scum who has been caught unless you’re laying traps, but why would we listen to you if you flip bad anyway?

I think it’s possible Speed is town but it’s probably for the good of the town that we either lynch him now and get time to sort this out after, or lynch INH and vig him/lynch him shortly thereafter. Which is weird to say, but, uh, yeah.

In no universe does it make sense to lynch speedchuck before we lynch INH.

Except if:
A. There is a reasonable suspicion of scum trickery involved with lynching INH today
B. Solving the speed-Quin-whatever stuff is more valuable to us collectively than having INH dead

I dunno the answer to either point.

[speedchuck]

A. There is a reasonable suspicion of scum trickery involved with lynching INH today

Didn't you use a Thundebird or something?

[Jackofhearts2005]

I’m taking Sloonei out of my poe.

Which way?

Gently.

[Jackofhearts2005]

But yeah, exactly like Phenon.

I don’t want it.

Stay the course. This is fine.

[speedchuck]

I’m taking Sloonei out of my poe.

Which way?

Gently.

I don't know whether you're taking him out of the suspect pool or out of the townfirm pool.

And why?

[Jackofhearts2005]

I’m taking Sloonei out of my poe.

Which way?

Gently.

I don't know whether you're taking him out of the suspect pool or out of the townfirm pool.

And why?

Suspect pool.

I was being cheeky about his flawless “I haven’t read” logic but seriously I think Sloonei is spewed good by LC flipping bad. Jay disagrees but whatever.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Obviously we need to lynch INH, Speedchuck and Quin for being in the wrong houses. We can just fast forward now.

[speedchuck]

If Pout is lying about checking me and Colin then that is an insanely gutsy play holy carp. Would not have expected it from her.
And given the voting it's... a bit of a... long con.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Kara, Mac and (drumroll please) a deepwolf are my POE.

Cause I never ever have only wolves in my POE. So why bother dig into my townleans at this point? Just wait for some flips.

[juliets]

Ok, I have been debating this at work and have decided that given the confusion about the night actions I should at least clear one of them up (or make it more confusing).

When I got Glorf's role card I was blown away to see that he had the Phoenix. I suspect he was waiting to use it if JJJ died but of course I don't know for sure. So I promptly did what Colin has been begging everyone to do and I used it, targeting Turnip Head. When dawn came I felt punched in the stomach to see that INH had been rezzed. I suspect I was targeted with Imperio though the only way that makes much sense is if the mafia already knew where the Phoenix was. I mean, why would they target me of all people with Imperio?

So mix that into the cake batter and see if we get a less lumpy cake - or is it now more lumpy?

lots of linki which I will read now

[Jackofhearts2005]

The rest of my poe

[nutella]

Ok, I have been debating this at work and have decided that given the confusion about the night actions I should at least clear one of them up (or make it more confusing).

When I got Glorf's role card I was blown away to see that he had the Phoenix. I suspect he was waiting to use it if JJJ died but of course I don't know for sure. So I promptly did what Colin has been begging everyone to do and I used it, targeting Turnip Head. When dawn came I felt punched in the stomach to see that INH had been rezzed. I suspect I was targeted with Imperio though the only way that makes much sense is if the mafia already knew where the Phoenix was. I mean, why would they target me of all people with Imperio?

So mix that into the cake batter and see if we get a less lumpy cake - or is it now more lumpy?

lots of linki which I will read now

God damn it glorf

[Jackofhearts2005]

Ok, I have been debating this at work and have decided that given the confusion about the night actions I should at least clear one of them up (or make it more confusing).

When I got Glorf's role card I was blown away to see that he had the Phoenix. I suspect he was waiting to use it if JJJ died but of course I don't know for sure. So I promptly did what Colin has been begging everyone to do and I used it, targeting Turnip Head. When dawn came I felt punched in the stomach to see that INH had been rezzed. I suspect I was targeted with Imperio though the only way that makes much sense is if the mafia already knew where the Phoenix was. I mean, why would they target me of all people with Imperio?

So mix that into the cake batter and see if we get a less lumpy cake - or is it now more lumpy?

lots of linki which I will read now

Did Glor fail N1 or more likely N2? If they misdirected you into a dead player, they had to know you had a phoenix.

This means scum misdirect shenanigans very unlikely to be the cause of Speed/Quin discrepancy.

[Sloonei]

Ok, I have been debating this at work and have decided that given the confusion about the night actions I should at least clear one of them up (or make it more confusing).

When I got Glorf's role card I was blown away to see that he had the Phoenix. I suspect he was waiting to use it if JJJ died but of course I don't know for sure. So I promptly did what Colin has been begging everyone to do and I used it, targeting Turnip Head. When dawn came I felt punched in the stomach to see that INH had been rezzed. I suspect I was targeted with Imperio though the only way that makes much sense is if the mafia already knew where the Phoenix was. I mean, why would they target me of all people with Imperio?

So mix that into the cake batter and see if we get a less lumpy cake - or is it now more lumpy?

lots of linki which I will read now

This at least nullifies the fear that his resurrection was some trick pulled by the Death Eaters with another play in mind today. I'm less anxious about lynching him, but I still prefer that we have a competing wagon to be safe.

[juliets]

Ok, I have been debating this at work and have decided that given the confusion about the night actions I should at least clear one of them up (or make it more confusing).

When I got Glorf's role card I was blown away to see that he had the Phoenix. I suspect he was waiting to use it if JJJ died but of course I don't know for sure. So I promptly did what Colin has been begging everyone to do and I used it, targeting Turnip Head. When dawn came I felt punched in the stomach to see that INH had been rezzed. I suspect I was targeted with Imperio though the only way that makes much sense is if the mafia already knew where the Phoenix was. I mean, why would they target me of all people with Imperio?

So mix that into the cake batter and see if we get a less lumpy cake - or is it now more lumpy?

lots of linki which I will read now

Did Glor fail N1 or more likely N2? If they misdirected you into a dead player, they had to know you had a phoenix.

This means scum misdirect shenanigans very unlikely to be the cause of Speed/Quin discrepancy.

I didn't remember Glorf failing but if he did I at least feel better that he tried to use it. And yes, they had to know.

[nutella]

Ok, I have been debating this at work and have decided that given the confusion about the night actions I should at least clear one of them up (or make it more confusing).

When I got Glorf's role card I was blown away to see that he had the Phoenix. I suspect he was waiting to use it if JJJ died but of course I don't know for sure. So I promptly did what Colin has been begging everyone to do and I used it, targeting Turnip Head. When dawn came I felt punched in the stomach to see that INH had been rezzed. I suspect I was targeted with Imperio though the only way that makes much sense is if the mafia already knew where the Phoenix was. I mean, why would they target me of all people with Imperio?

So mix that into the cake batter and see if we get a less lumpy cake - or is it now more lumpy?

lots of linki which I will read now

Did Glor fail N1 or more likely N2? If they misdirected you into a dead player, they had to know you had a phoenix.

This means scum misdirect shenanigans very unlikely to be the cause of Speed/Quin discrepancy.

Oh this is a good point. So glorf must have tried to use it and failed and maybe the mafia tracked to see he targeted a dead player

[Sloonei]

The real winner in all this is DDL.

[nutella]

Wait juliets what do you mean you don't remember? DDL should have told you his actions.

[ColinIsCool]

A. There is a reasonable suspicion of scum trickery involved with lynching INH today

Didn't you use a Thundebird or something?

Yeah, but I’m thinking a bomb or something. Seems unlikely even as I type it though.

[speedchuck]

Did Glor fail N1 or more likely N2? If they misdirected you into a dead player, they had to know you had a phoenix.

This means scum misdirect shenanigans very unlikely to be the cause of Speed/Quin discrepancy.

Glorf wouldn't have to fail. Divination and a couple of other hogwarts abilities could figure it out too. Not just the torture curse.

[nutella]

A. There is a reasonable suspicion of scum trickery involved with lynching INH today

Didn't you use a Thundebird or something?

Yeah, but I’m thinking a bomb or something. Seems unlikely even as I type it though.

I mean various methods of lynch stopping/surviving are not the same as vote manipulation, so thunderbird wouldn't prevent them

[ColinIsCool]

Ok, I have been debating this at work and have decided that given the confusion about the night actions I should at least clear one of them up (or make it more confusing).

When I got Glorf's role card I was blown away to see that he had the Phoenix. I suspect he was waiting to use it if JJJ died but of course I don't know for sure. So I promptly did what Colin has been begging everyone to do and I used it, targeting Turnip Head. When dawn came I felt punched in the stomach to see that INH had been rezzed. I suspect I was targeted with Imperio though the only way that makes much sense is if the mafia already knew where the Phoenix was. I mean, why would they target me of all people with Imperio?

So mix that into the cake batter and see if we get a less lumpy cake - or is it now more lumpy?

lots of linki which I will read now

Did Glor fail N1 or more likely N2? If they misdirected you into a dead player, they had to know you had a phoenix.

This means scum misdirect shenanigans very unlikely to be the cause of Speed/Quin discrepancy.

Oh this is a good point. So glorf must have tried to use it and failed and maybe the mafia tracked to see he targeted a dead player

Very interdasting. So, full speed ahead on INH then.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

The real winner in all this is DDL.

10 points to Hufflepuff!

(not really)