Shockheaded Peter Mafia [ENDGAME]

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You're going to Hell...unless you get this one right...

Poll ended at Thu Mar 07, 2019 11:21 pm

Jackofhearts2005
1
9%
leetic
2
18%
sabie12
0
No votes
DEAD (The Host, the Non, the DEAD)
8
73%
 
Total votes: 11
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Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Night 1]

#901

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

leetic wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 12:09 pm One thing I found interesting is that, with my switch to the Jack wagon, votes were 4-5, meaning it would be easy for scum to flip the lynch if they wanted to. Get, for some reason, they didn't.

There are a few potential conclusions that can be drawn from this:

1. Scum was already on the Jack wagon, and thus couldn't switch.
2. Scum wasn't around during EOD.
3. Jack himself is scum.

If conclusion 1 is correct, that's not a good look for reywaS, and likewise with sabie and conclusion 2. Thus, I think either of them would be good targets for D2.
For the sake of detail in our continuing dialogue I will note that your vote switch came 23 minutes prior to the deadline. That's how much time anyone would have had to tip the scales to Jack.

What prevents you from favoring option 3?
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Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Night 1]

#902

Post by reywaS »

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Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Night 1]

#903

Post by nutella »

leetic wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 12:09 pm One thing I found interesting is that, with my switch to the Jack wagon, votes were 4-5, meaning it would be easy for scum to flip the lynch if they wanted to. Get, for some reason, they didn't.

There are a few potential conclusions that can be drawn from this:

1. Scum was already on the Jack wagon, and thus couldn't switch.
2. Scum wasn't around during EOD.
3. Jack himself is scum.

If conclusion 1 is correct, that's not a good look for reywaS, and likewise with sabie and conclusion 2. Thus, I think either of them would be good targets for D2.
And Jack, presumably? Is there some reason you gloss over option 3 here?


oh jay beat me
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Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Night 1]

#904

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

reywaS wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 12:14 pm I have a gif for all this bogus suspicion of me....


wait for it
Whose suspicion of you is bogus?
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Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Night 1]

#905

Post by reywaS »

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 12:22 pm
reywaS wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 12:14 pm I have a gif for all this bogus suspicion of me....


wait for it
Whose suspicion of you is bogus?
Sloonei and maybe leetic....possibly nutella. Sloonei's suspicion of me smells the worst.
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Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Day 0]

#906

Post by colonialbob »

reywaS wrote: Wed Feb 20, 2019 4:38 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Wed Feb 20, 2019 4:25 pm
speedchuck wrote: Wed Feb 20, 2019 4:23 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Wed Feb 20, 2019 4:22 pm
speedchuck wrote: Wed Feb 20, 2019 4:21 pmI don't have the energy to be the townchuck you want me to be.
I don't care about the townchuck I want you to be. I can't imagine you've been the townchuck you want you to be.
I can't help your lack of imagination.
Yeah this is crap. Get lynched.

I've given you 1,000 avenues to change my mind, and instead I get this junk.
well to be fair to speedchuck, it's possible that he has conceded as you say..but i dont think that necessarily means that he's mafia. If he's civ, he may think that it's pointless to fight back at this point with you being the leader of the lynch wagon. I dunno. You might be right and he's bad, but I don't think giving up means you are correct in your vote.

Ive only played 3 games in the past 2or 3 years so i could just be out of practice, but I have seen many a day one lynch go like this one seems to be going..and it's been rare in my experience that the lynch wagon actually caught a baddie.


Question for the room (minus JJJ of course) What will you think of JJJ if chuck flips civ?
We've discussed the last sentence already, but I want to revisit the first two paragraphs for a minute. I agree with a lot of the sentiment here (concession isn't mafia-specific, especially D1), but it's expressed in a pretty wishy-washy way. "It's possible he's mafia, but could be civ." isn't problematic by itself but also isn't really a helpful statement. I would feel differently if reywas had taken more of a stand, e.g. "I find concession NAI, and I think it's a bad reason to feel comfortable with this wagon."

The middle para though is really what makes me think. Like, of course D1 lynches don't normally catch baddies. They're certainly not random, but by necessity they're based off of almost 0 hard evidence (flips and trains), and there's a lot more civs than mafia around. Feels like more shade being thrown, but it's very non-specific. Could be a way of opening a window to call out anybody on the speedchuck train, could be an honest civvie observation.

Both of things things could be said by both civs and mafia, I think. But put those two things alongside the "what do you think about JJJ if speedchuck is civ" pushes me towards the less positive interpretations of the post.
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Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Night 1]

#907

Post by reywaS »

question....at what point did JoH2005 vote for Lunalee?
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Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Night 1]

#908

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

reywaS wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 12:27 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 12:22 pm
reywaS wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 12:14 pm I have a gif for all this bogus suspicion of me....


wait for it
Whose suspicion of you is bogus?
Sloonei and maybe leetic....possibly nutella. Sloonei's suspicion of me smells the worst.
Such "maybe". Such "possibly". :meany:

What makes Sloonei's the worst?
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Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Night 1]

#909

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

reywaS wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 12:28 pm question....at what point did JoH2005 vote for Lunalee?
Shortly after she voted for him. He responded without a vote initially, got a linki, and then added his vote for her. I am actually going to revisit that now to determine what new posts came into the thread to generate that linki for Jack.
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Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Night 1]

#910

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

The progression from Luna's vote for Jack to Jack's vote for Luna:

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Lunalee wrote: Wed Feb 20, 2019 6:06 pm
novaselinenever wrote: Wed Feb 20, 2019 6:04 pm [VOTE: Lunalee] aubergine
lol, okay.
[VOTE: JackofHearts] aubergine
Let's make a three-way tie and hash this out, shall we?
Lunalee wrote: Wed Feb 20, 2019 6:07 pm linki: dang speed, you broke the tie as soon as I made it.
speedchuck wrote: Wed Feb 20, 2019 6:08 pm Much as I like ties...
reywaS wrote: Wed Feb 20, 2019 6:08 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Wed Feb 20, 2019 5:30 pm
Elohcin wrote: Wed Feb 20, 2019 5:23 pmI back luna on this. The votes on chuck seem suspicious and I am not even close to certain of chuck's alignment either. From the get-go, JJJ has been saying BS about this player and that player whether is be of their civviness or baddiness. He has been doing whatever he can just to get people to participate. I think that this his vote for chuck and hard go on chuck is the same thing. I don;t think JJJ CARES if chuck si good or bad. I think he just thinks that it will get people working to solve the game. I think JJJ could be indie.
Apart from the indie thing, you're not far off here. Most of the things that I say and do in any Day 0/1 period is intended to generate a productive environment wherein the civilians have a reasonable opportunity to develop reads (both now and into future phases). I am playing the motivator and facilitator roles I described in the linked thread there. I think most successful civilian teams need someone doing these things.

That isn't to say I don't care about speedchuck's alignment though. I do. It isn't imperative to lynch a mafioso on Day 1, and the sky won't be falling if there's a mislynch. A correct lynch is still obviously preferred though, and I am trying my best to promote suspicions that I think are most likely to yield that result.
Have you ever done these things as mafia? If so, how often?
Lunalee wrote: Wed Feb 20, 2019 6:09 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Wed Feb 20, 2019 1:48 pm And from everybody else, remind me if Luna buddies as scum or if I’ve just mislynched her for buddying before when she was really town.

Cause her iso is almost like a peace rally while we’re at a debate/execution.
Oh hey, I just saw this. I'm done with peace rallies. Tell me why you shouldn't be lynched.
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Wed Feb 20, 2019 6:10 pm *sprinkles the salts of suspicion upon the thread as would global 2017 meme sensation saltbae*
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Wed Feb 20, 2019 6:10 pm
Lunalee wrote: Wed Feb 20, 2019 6:06 pm
novaselinenever wrote: Wed Feb 20, 2019 6:04 pm [VOTE: Lunalee] aubergine
lol, okay.
[VOTE: JackofHearts] aubergine
Let's make a three-way tie and hash this out, shall we?
Yuck. How bout no?

Linki: Cause you’re being lynched. :biggrin:

[VOTE: Lunalee] aubergine

That's every post that occurred in that moment. I have to step away, so I'll talk about this in a bit.
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Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Night 1]

#911

Post by speedchuck »

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 11:50 am
speedchuck wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 11:17 am speedchuck
nutella
colonialbob
novaselinenever
reywaS
AudreyTheTattleTail

Elohcin
Jackofhearts2005
leetic
Sloonei
sabie12
lol @ me

Why are reywaS removed and leetic included?
Reywas is removed because I've had good feels from him all game. I like the way he's responded to suspicion. Though Leetic's recent point about the Jack/Luna balance is important to keep in mind as well.

I liked Nova's post about Leetic and think it needs to be looked into.
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Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Day 0]

#912

Post by colonialbob »

Elohcin wrote: Wed Feb 20, 2019 5:23 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Wed Feb 20, 2019 1:19 pm
Lunalee wrote: Wed Feb 20, 2019 1:18 pm Sorry, don't have an example. Day 1 lynches are hard for me.
They're hard for all of us. I have to wonder though why you're mounting resistance to a bandwagon on a player for whom you don't have a read.
I back luna on this. The votes on chuck seem suspicious and I am not even close to certain of chuck's alignment either. From the get-go, JJJ has been saying BS about this player and that player whether is be of their civviness or baddiness. He has been doing whatever he can just to get people to participate. I think that this his vote for chuck and hard go on chuck is the same thing. I don;t think JJJ CARES if chuck si good or bad. I think he just thinks that it will get people working to solve the game. I think JJJ could be indie.
Flags.

First of all, backing Luna obviously seems sus, but let's set that aside for the moment. What pings me about this is the train of thought from "JJJ thinks it will get people working to solve the game" to "JJJ could be indie." Why would an indie be trying to get people to solve the game? The fact that there aren't Indies in the game is also weird, but not particularly influential to how I view this. It's just a weird form of shade that I do not understand the thought process behind, which makes it feel less than genuine.
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Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Night 1]

#913

Post by colonialbob »

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 12:29 pm What makes Sloonei's the worst?
That time he tunneled on me in mountain mafia

lol got em
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Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Night 1]

#914

Post by colonialbob »

Back to work, more thoughts later.
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Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Night 1]

#915

Post by reywaS »

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 12:29 pm
reywaS wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 12:27 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 12:22 pm
reywaS wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 12:14 pm I have a gif for all this bogus suspicion of me....


wait for it
Whose suspicion of you is bogus?
Sloonei and maybe leetic....possibly nutella. Sloonei's suspicion of me smells the worst.
Such "maybe". Such "possibly". :meany:

What makes Sloonei's the worst?
Sloonei wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 2:07 am Nova looks great with luna’s flip.

I also give leetic a couple of townie points purely on the surface of his posts. He’s (relatively) new in town, but is puttinf forth a strong effort and making sure his voice is heard. That’s not going to lock him in as a town read, but it’s something I consider.

I feel like reywas is my strongest suspect coming out of this lynch. I’ll take a second look to see if I can identify why that is.
Sloonei wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 2:15 am I am on my phone and don’t feel like navigating the perils of a multi-quote post, but reywas’s mini interrogation of Jay seemed a little unmotivated. He was asking questions, but I didn’t get the impression he was really invested in the answers. His “what will people think if...” census felt particularly aimless.

Also, this was his contribution as the vote change whacke-iness was unfolding:
reywaS wrote: Wed Feb 20, 2019 7:40 pm what a weird day 1
Not the best look.
talk about throwing shade. My questions to JJJ were unmotivated. Why do you think this sloondog? He can't give any baddie motivations for doing it of course. It just feels bad. keep at it and you will have a good backstory for voting JoeJoe tomorrow. Maybe you can just be the seed layer and someone else can take the fall for a bad lynch wagon.

Yeah, Sloonei's suspicion is bogus. I stand behind that fo sho.
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Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Night 1]

#916

Post by reywaS »

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 12:29 pm
reywaS wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 12:27 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 12:22 pm
reywaS wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 12:14 pm I have a gif for all this bogus suspicion of me....


wait for it
Whose suspicion of you is bogus?
Sloonei and maybe leetic....possibly nutella. Sloonei's suspicion of me smells the worst.
Such "maybe". Such "possibly". :meany:

What makes Sloonei's the worst?
i take the possibly nutella back. I thought she was the one that had questioned my reasons for askiung you questions. Apologies.
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Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Night 1]

#917

Post by nutella »

reywaS wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 12:46 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 12:29 pm
reywaS wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 12:27 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 12:22 pm
reywaS wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 12:14 pm I have a gif for all this bogus suspicion of me....


wait for it
Whose suspicion of you is bogus?
Sloonei and maybe leetic....possibly nutella. Sloonei's suspicion of me smells the worst.
Such "maybe". Such "possibly". :meany:

What makes Sloonei's the worst?
i take the possibly nutella back. I thought she was the one that had questioned my reasons for askiung you questions. Apologies.
I did do that.
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Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Night 1]

#918

Post by reywaS »

nutella wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 12:51 pm
reywaS wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 12:46 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 12:29 pm
reywaS wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 12:27 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 12:22 pm
reywaS wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 12:14 pm I have a gif for all this bogus suspicion of me....


wait for it
Whose suspicion of you is bogus?
Sloonei and maybe leetic....possibly nutella. Sloonei's suspicion of me smells the worst.
Such "maybe". Such "possibly". :meany:

What makes Sloonei's the worst?
i take the possibly nutella back. I thought she was the one that had questioned my reasons for askiung you questions. Apologies.
I did do that.
Sloonei's post that i quoted above is what was in my brain at the time tho.
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Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Night 1]

#919

Post by reywaS »

and you seemed to be trying to find baddie motivations behind me asking JJJ questions. Sloonei was 100% feels.
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Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Night 1]

#920

Post by leetic »

nutella wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 12:21 pm
leetic wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 12:09 pm One thing I found interesting is that, with my switch to the Jack wagon, votes were 4-5, meaning it would be easy for scum to flip the lynch if they wanted to. Get, for some reason, they didn't.

There are a few potential conclusions that can be drawn from this:

1. Scum was already on the Jack wagon, and thus couldn't switch.
2. Scum wasn't around during EOD.
3. Jack himself is scum.

If conclusion 1 is correct, that's not a good look for reywaS, and likewise with sabie and conclusion 2. Thus, I think either of them would be good targets for D2.
And Jack, presumably? Is there some reason you gloss over option 3 here?
The main reason I am a little less suspicious of Jack than the others is because Luna voted him during EOD, rather than jumping on speedchuck's wagon which would have made sense from a self preservation perspective. Don't get me wrong, a Jack lynch isn't off the table, it's just that I find the other two more suspicious.
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Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Night 1]

#921

Post by colonialbob »

reywaS wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 12:57 pm and you seemed to be trying to find baddie motivations behind me asking JJJ questions. Sloonei was 100% feels.
I'd love some content not related to people's views of you
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Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Night 1]

#922

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 12:33 pm The progression from Luna's vote for Jack to Jack's vote for Luna:

Spoiler: show
Lunalee wrote: Wed Feb 20, 2019 6:06 pm
novaselinenever wrote: Wed Feb 20, 2019 6:04 pm [VOTE: Lunalee] aubergine
lol, okay.
[VOTE: JackofHearts] aubergine
Let's make a three-way tie and hash this out, shall we?
Lunalee wrote: Wed Feb 20, 2019 6:07 pm linki: dang speed, you broke the tie as soon as I made it.
speedchuck wrote: Wed Feb 20, 2019 6:08 pm Much as I like ties...
reywaS wrote: Wed Feb 20, 2019 6:08 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Wed Feb 20, 2019 5:30 pm
Elohcin wrote: Wed Feb 20, 2019 5:23 pmI back luna on this. The votes on chuck seem suspicious and I am not even close to certain of chuck's alignment either. From the get-go, JJJ has been saying BS about this player and that player whether is be of their civviness or baddiness. He has been doing whatever he can just to get people to participate. I think that this his vote for chuck and hard go on chuck is the same thing. I don;t think JJJ CARES if chuck si good or bad. I think he just thinks that it will get people working to solve the game. I think JJJ could be indie.
Apart from the indie thing, you're not far off here. Most of the things that I say and do in any Day 0/1 period is intended to generate a productive environment wherein the civilians have a reasonable opportunity to develop reads (both now and into future phases). I am playing the motivator and facilitator roles I described in the linked thread there. I think most successful civilian teams need someone doing these things.

That isn't to say I don't care about speedchuck's alignment though. I do. It isn't imperative to lynch a mafioso on Day 1, and the sky won't be falling if there's a mislynch. A correct lynch is still obviously preferred though, and I am trying my best to promote suspicions that I think are most likely to yield that result.
Have you ever done these things as mafia? If so, how often?
Lunalee wrote: Wed Feb 20, 2019 6:09 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Wed Feb 20, 2019 1:48 pm And from everybody else, remind me if Luna buddies as scum or if I’ve just mislynched her for buddying before when she was really town.

Cause her iso is almost like a peace rally while we’re at a debate/execution.
Oh hey, I just saw this. I'm done with peace rallies. Tell me why you shouldn't be lynched.
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Wed Feb 20, 2019 6:10 pm *sprinkles the salts of suspicion upon the thread as would global 2017 meme sensation saltbae*
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Wed Feb 20, 2019 6:10 pm
Lunalee wrote: Wed Feb 20, 2019 6:06 pm
novaselinenever wrote: Wed Feb 20, 2019 6:04 pm [VOTE: Lunalee] aubergine
lol, okay.
[VOTE: JackofHearts] aubergine
Let's make a three-way tie and hash this out, shall we?
Yuck. How bout no?

Linki: Cause you’re being lynched. :biggrin:

[VOTE: Lunalee] aubergine

That's every post that occurred in that moment. I have to step away, so I'll talk about this in a bit.
Alright, about this. I wasn't sure if the linki preceding Jack's vote for Luna featured someone else voting for her. That'd provide Jack with an added motive and more wagon momentum to throw his own vote in the ring. That's not the case though, and his post-linki "Cause you're being lynched" is a response to Luna asking in this space "Tell me why you shouldn't be lynched". So it's more of a snark response and the linki on its own may not mean much. I'll leave others to judge that and the progression in general.

It's a minor point in my perception of Jack anyway.
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Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Night 1]

#923

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

leetic wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 1:01 pmThe main reason I am a little less suspicious of Jack than the others is because Luna voted him during EOD, rather than jumping on speedchuck's wagon which would have made sense from a self preservation perspective. Don't get me wrong, a Jack lynch isn't off the table, it's just that I find the other two more suspicious.
Does it mean anything to you that when Luna's wagon immediately ballooned to six votes, the speedchuck wagon was only at two? This means Jack and speed were approximately equivalent as counterwagon options.
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Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Night 1]

#924

Post by Jackofhearts2005 »

[mention]JaggedJimmyJay[/mention]

You get one defense post and then I’m going back to work (literally and in terms of hunting over self defense).

Here’s the post for reference.
http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 00#p515544

Luna reads. Luna gth. Luna three way tie vote. Nothing to say about this except Luna jumping in when Speed was the lynch makes Speed look bad.

Explaining reads isn’t scummy. There’s a difference between a strong townread and a null read that’s a gth town cause gth null isn’t worthwhile. Hitting with fishes is rude.

I didn’t isolate Luna from Speed and Rey by pointing out her reads didn’t match theirs any more than I isolated Rey by pointing out Bob didn’t talk about the other two in the very same post. You yourself pointed out Luna had reads that were against the grain. This is you coming into an iso with the idea that I’m bad and then using confirmation bias to say this is evidence of it.

You quote more stuff without conclusion.

I didn’t want to vote Luna over Speed because there are a lot of reasons to suspect Speed and at the time, the only reason I suspected Luna is for defending Speedchuck. She then did more scummy stuff and was scum. I think she was buddies with Speed for defending him and trying to break up his wagon. I can see how this looks like me pushing to mislynch Speed over my wolf buddy Luna. Talk to me when Speed flips town.

Not maneuvering. I suspected both of them and have but one vote.

That post was always going to come with a vote. The vote was in response to her vote making it 3 Speed, 3 Jack, 3 Luna (or thereabouts, I don’t remember where Speed moved to). I put it at 4 Luna, 3 Jack, 2 Speed. So if I’m buddies with Luna, why are we cross voting instead of staying on Speed? The linki was in response to Luna being like “Why don’t we lynch Jack” to which I said “because we’re lynching you.”

You’re right. [mention]speedchuck[/mention] I didn’t really read your question. The answer to it was “Because Luna started posting more and became more suspicious.” You were suspicious at say a 3 star level. Luna was pretty null with a single post that pointed to her being your buddy maybe. Then Luna started being real suspicious, around 4 stars, and making posts that said she was your buddy or was setting you up for a mislynch. I’m reading the less suspicious player based on the more suspicious one.
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Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Night 1]

#925

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 1:09 pmThis is you coming into an iso with the idea that I’m bad and then using confirmation bias to say this is evidence of it.
Before I did that analysis I expected to think you'd look better.
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Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Night 1]

#926

Post by Jackofhearts2005 »

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 1:13 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 1:09 pmThis is you coming into an iso with the idea that I’m bad and then using confirmation bias to say this is evidence of it.
Before I did that analysis I expected to think you'd look better.
Okay. Then why when I take ABC and say A is different in one way and B is different in another are you like “Jack isolating B. 🤔”?
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Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Night 1]

#927

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 1:15 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 1:13 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 1:09 pmThis is you coming into an iso with the idea that I’m bad and then using confirmation bias to say this is evidence of it.
Before I did that analysis I expected to think you'd look better.
Okay. Then why when I take ABC and say A is different in one way and B is different in another are you like “Jack isolating B. 🤔”?
"A and B have a visible connection that does not apply to C"
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Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Night 1]

#928

Post by Jackofhearts2005 »

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 1:18 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 1:15 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 1:13 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 1:09 pmThis is you coming into an iso with the idea that I’m bad and then using confirmation bias to say this is evidence of it.
Before I did that analysis I expected to think you'd look better.
Okay. Then why when I take ABC and say A is different in one way and B is different in another are you like “Jack isolating B. 🤔”?
"A and B have a visible connection that does not apply to C"
Is this an answer or a statement? If it’s a statement, tell me which letters are which people.
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Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Night 1]

#929

Post by Jackofhearts2005 »

And if it’s an answer, I don’t get it either.
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Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Night 1]

#930

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 1:22 pm Is this an answer or a statement? If it’s a statement, tell me which letters are which people.
A and B (speedchuck and reywaS) have similar reads, but C (Luna) does not.

The other thing you said was about bob's posts (whether he mentioned people), not those three.
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Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Night 1]

#931

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

[mention]reywaS[/mention], I have no idea what you think of speedchuck apart from one GTH read (good). Please help me out there.
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Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Night 1]

#932

Post by Jackofhearts2005 »

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 1:23 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 1:22 pm Is this an answer or a statement? If it’s a statement, tell me which letters are which people.
A and B (speedchuck and reywaS) have similar reads, but C (Luna) does not.

The other thing you said was about bob's posts (whether he mentioned people), not those three.
Okay, I get ya.
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Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Night 1]

#933

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

Do your thing [mention]Jackofhearts2005[/mention]. I'm interested to see what POE you arrive at.
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Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Night 1]

#934

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

I can't get to 5 yet in my POE, and I am left with 7 (ordered alphabetically):

Elohcin
Jackofhearts2005
leetic
reywaS
sabie12
Sloonei
speedchuck

I need to get rid of two of these people. :ponder:

At face value, among these people as of right this instant, the two that I think look most like civilians are leetic and reywaS. For each of them, I see authenticity and organic posts. The interactions and some of the details don't work their way. Generally when I find myself in that conflict, I side with the gut: a dirty record can be civilian-indicative anyway.
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Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Night 1]

#935

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

bob's grievances with Elohcin are resonating too. She was close to correct in her assumptions about my strategies, but I don't know why "indie" was in her mindset. Early in games, I think mafia members are generally more indie-conscious than civilians.
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Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Night 1]

#936

Post by leetic »

My one question is, if both Lunalee and Jack are scum, why didn't they just hound speedchuck?
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Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Night 1]

#937

Post by Jackofhearts2005 »

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Wed Feb 20, 2019 10:12 pm With one mafioso lynched, we find ourselves in a 10 vs. 2 scenario. To be safe, let's project a civilian death this night phase and in every future night phase. That leaves our numbers as follows:

N1: 10 vs. 2
D2: 9 vs. 2

How many mislynches do we have available? If one occurs on Day 2, proceed:

N2: 8 vs. 2
D3: 7 vs. 2, mislynch
N3: 6 vs. 2
D4: 5 vs. 2, mislynch
N4: 4 vs. 2
D5: 3 vs. 2

We'd have three mislynches before arriving at a 3 vs. 2 LyLo. There are two mafia members remaining. 3 + 2 = 5 ---> A correctly assembled POE pool of 5 players (meaning it contains both remaining mafia members) wins the game.

So give me your five. :nicenod:
Side note: This is why I find multiball so difficult to balance. # of mislynches available is a good balance metric. Maybe take a flat...third of kills and assign them as scum on scum and calculate mislynches from there?

Anyway. 5 player POE. I can safely remove Jay, Bob, Nova from it.

Speed, Sloonei - real suspic
Rey, Sabie - kinda suspic
Eloh, Nutella - a few points for and a few against
Audrey, Leet - probably town but can’t totally rule them out

I don’t have a 5 player POE yet. I do have 2 players I suspect way more than everyone else and I think there’s a pretty good chance I remove Audrey, Leet and Nutella from my POE by lylo if they are in fact town.
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Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Night 1]

#938

Post by Jackofhearts2005 »

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 1:35 pm I can't get to 5 yet in my POE, and I am left with 7 (ordered alphabetically):

Elohcin
Jackofhearts2005
leetic
reywaS
sabie12
Sloonei
speedchuck

I need to get rid of two of these people. :ponder:

At face value, among these people as of right this instant, the two that I think look most like civilians are leetic and reywaS. For each of them, I see authenticity and organic posts. The interactions and some of the details don't work their way. Generally when I find myself in that conflict, I side with the gut: a dirty record can be civilian-indicative anyway.
Alternative strategy: Lynch my scumreads and win. :nicenod:
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Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Night 1]

#939

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

leetic wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 1:45 pm My one question is, if both Lunalee and Jack are scum, why didn't they just hound speedchuck?
It's a very speculative and WIFOM thing to discuss, but I can provide a few potential reasons (any one or combination of which may be applicable):

~ Both of them moving on speedchuck together is an associative risk that they wanted to avoid.

~ Once the Lunalee wagon had grown to a lead or tied for the lead, the mafia team has to brace itself for the potential that she'll die. That's typically when those in BTSC are talking about "to bus or not to bus".

~ Either of them moving back to speedchuck after the rest of us has exodus'd that wagon is in isolation risky (or perceived as risky).

~ At a certain point, it wouldn't have been enough to give speedchuck an outright tally lead. If so, Luna is getting lynched either way -- might as well make it look good.
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Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Night 1]

#940

Post by Jackofhearts2005 »

Lunalee wrote: Wed Feb 20, 2019 11:02 pm 13 mentions, all from JJJ XD
You thought death would save you from Jay?
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Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Night 1]

#941

Post by sabie12 »

Sorry I have been at the hospital today haven't been able to participate. Glad you guys caught one of the baddies! I'll have to catch up at some point if I'm able to
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Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Night 1]

#942

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

sabie12 wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 2:12 pm Sorry I have been at the hospital today haven't been able to participate. Glad you guys caught one of the baddies! I'll have to catch up at some point if I'm able to
I hope you're doing alright sabie! Take your time.
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Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Night 1]

#943

Post by Jackofhearts2005 »

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 1:53 pm
leetic wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 1:45 pm My one question is, if both Lunalee and Jack are scum, why didn't they just hound speedchuck?
It's a very speculative and WIFOM thing to discuss, but I can provide a few potential reasons (any one or combination of which may be applicable):

~ Both of them moving on speedchuck together is an associative risk that they wanted to avoid.

~ Once the Lunalee wagon had grown to a lead or tied for the lead, the mafia team has to brace itself for the potential that she'll die. That's typically when those in BTSC are talking about "to bus or not to bus".

~ Either of them moving back to speedchuck after the rest of us has exodus'd that wagon is in isolation risky (or perceived as risky).

~ At a certain point, it wouldn't have been enough to give speedchuck an outright tally lead. If so, Luna is getting lynched either way -- might as well make it look good.
That point where Luna is getting lynched and scum has to decide to bus or not is when I switched from Speed to Luna, though.

And I had been on Speed basically the whole day while Luna defended him.

So why does scum Luna come in and break up the lynch her wolf buddy has been pushing up and make it more likely that her buddy gets lynched instead? Or she ultimately gets lynched instead. It was like 5 Speed votes, 2 Jack votes and 2 votes on...Rey? someone I wasn’t paying attention to, for awhile before anyone was really looking at Luna.

That’s why I don’t think the Luna entry was a setup on Speed. Speed was already setup just fine if he’s town. Luna drew votes from Speed and added a vote to me. Total Speed+Luna voters outweighed the Jack ones but if they split perfectly, I was lynchable. And if they didn’t, it’s not any worse than Speed getting lynched anyway.

If Speed is just town, what was Luna doing?
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Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Night 1]

#944

Post by Jackofhearts2005 »

nutella wrote: Wed Feb 20, 2019 11:36 pm I did really like leetic's work on Jack, and that led me more in the direction of speed/luna and not jack, but Jay's interactive read of Jack pushed me back in the other direction. I think probably one but not both of Jack and Speed is bad. I think Rey figured importantly in my earlier thought process in relation to one or both of them, I'll have to sort out if I think he's only compatible with one :ponder:
Everyone should commit to vote for me or Speed tomorrow and I’ll pay him back for World Asunder. :charlieblackmon:
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Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Night 1]

#945

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

First of all, I am not prepared to discard a mafia team comprised of Lunalee, Jack, and speedchuck. I see no good reason why that can't exist. I'll assess the rest separately.
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Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Night 1]

#946

Post by Jackofhearts2005 »

nutella wrote: Wed Feb 20, 2019 11:43 pm Okay wait I think I've got it. We're looking at either a Jack/Leetic team or a Speed/Rey team. Place your bets folks.
Nutella/Rey not w/w. :smoky:
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Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Night 1]

#947

Post by reywaS »

colonialbob wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 1:05 pm
reywaS wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 12:57 pm and you seemed to be trying to find baddie motivations behind me asking JJJ questions. Sloonei was 100% feels.
I'd love some content not related to people's views of you
you say that as if all of my content this game has been the self centered variety. :confused: :confused: :confused:
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Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Night 1]

#948

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 2:20 pm And I had been on Speed basically the whole day while Luna defended him.

So why does scum Luna come in and break up the lynch her wolf buddy has been pushing up and make it more likely that her buddy gets lynched instead? Or she ultimately gets lynched instead. It was like 5 Speed votes, 2 Jack votes and 2 votes on...Rey? someone I wasn’t paying attention to, for awhile before anyone was really looking at Luna.
Luna didn't break up the speedchuck lynch. It was already broken. We'd moved. You and leetic were the last to vote Luna (before leetic moved to you). After the speedchuck wagon lost me and nova voted Luna, the balance was already shifted.
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Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Night 1]

#949

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

reywaS wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 2:26 pm
colonialbob wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 1:05 pm
reywaS wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 12:57 pm and you seemed to be trying to find baddie motivations behind me asking JJJ questions. Sloonei was 100% feels.
I'd love some content not related to people's views of you
you say that as if all of my content this game has been the self centered variety. :confused: :confused: :confused:
In recent memory a lot of his has been. I'd also like to hear what your reads are of everyone else apart from how people have treated you. There's value in the reads you've given on that front, but a different approach would help.
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Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Night 1]

#950

Post by Jackofhearts2005 »

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 2:24 pm First of all, I am not prepared to discard a mafia team comprised of Lunalee, Jack, and speedchuck. I see no good reason why that can't exist. I'll assess the rest separately.
Jack: We are getting murdered out there. How did Jay find us already?
Speed: No kidding. Jay is so good at mafia. At least Luna is safe.
Luna: Hold my beer.
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