Jack Attack Mafia (Day 5)

[nutella]

@nutella, if neither Tony nor Long Con is a mafioso, who is?

colin and alison are my main suspects rn

daisy, sabie, epi are kind of my fringe poe/wildcards

what about wilgy?

I'm falling asleep now

[nutella]

ignore that

lol

[JaggedJimmyJay]

man that's the greatest single post rebuttal to a scum team I've ever seen

I don't think that even dissociates them.

all three of them? I don't think it disassociates colin and alison, but certainly LC

I think that's a good reason to tie Alison and LC together lol. She has made it quite clear she will do what she feels is optimal for her mafia team rather than what "looks the best". Refusing to allow LC out of a town core is very much optimal if they're teamed.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I don't think it's a good idea to dig into WIFOM thinking when assessing Alison.

[TonyStarkPrime]

man that's the greatest single post rebuttal to a scum team I've ever seen

I don't think that even dissociates them.

all three of them? I don't think it disassociates colin and alison, but certainly LC

I think that's a good reason to tie Alison and LC together lol. She has made it quite clear she will do what she feels is optimal for her mafia team rather than what "looks the best". Refusing to allow LC out of a town core is very much optimal if they're teamed.

Yeah it also works for Alison/LC.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Estimated number of times Epignosis has voiced suspicion of Alison: 9-11

Estimated number of times Alison has voiced suspicion of Epignosis: 6-8

Numbers vary because I don't want a single discussion of numerous posts to count more than once.

Number of votes either has placed for the other: 0

[JaggedJimmyJay]

ready for this spice? jay/epi/alison, pawn is 3p

no, pawn isn't 3p. It can be Wilgy I guess

"oops, I wasn't supposed to know this"

[JaggedJimmyJay]

More on Tony and the 3P read:

Spoiler: show

@TonyStarkPrime why are Pawn and Wilgy not mafia?

they can be mafia. Pawn probably isn't 3p for reasons.

sprityo/Pawn Lelouch - PRobably not 3p because reasons, hard to read the spot as any less than null

I should be cleared from the way I viewed Pawn's spot but that's neither here nor there.

cursory glance shows you thought he couldn't be 3p for "reasons"


hm

I'm not talking about those reasons and will not because I was clearly wrong. But it doesn't make sense for a wolf, especially a wolf who knows that pawn is the SK (but I don't think the wolves did know that), to present that as a thought.

Allow me to blink incredulously

Spoiler: show

if daisy was redirected or something

whoever did that action knows the identity of the real 3p

if you are town, you MUST claim who you redirected daisy to

that will out the 3P

if it was a scum action they wont claim it but theyll probably off the 3P for us

I'll nip this.

If you are scum and have a controlled misdirect, claim your action. Pretend to be town. Get off the hook, we won't kill scum today. Do it now.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Colin and Tony interaction

I'm only extracting posts I feel really say something.

From Colin

Spoiler: show

I continue to feel great about the state of the game. I am comfortable with my civilian reads; indeed that is only becoming more true as Day 1 progresses.

My clear POE pool remains: ColinIsCool, DrWilgy, sprityo, Long Con, and Funnygurl555. I said earlier in the phase that my goal was a pool of seven, so I have room for two more on the tinfoil side. I’d look first to Alison and TonyStarkPrime for that “tier”.

Anyone who has severe misgivings about this arrangement (ideally beyond “I’m on the list, how dare you”) should speak up.

Jay is checking off all of the boxes on the classically scum list. It makes me... uncomfortable.

what

Yeah this was a weird post for me too.

is this a real question

Yes.

Do you have any general theory of the game, or are you just spouting random takes to maintain some image of involvement?

This latter portion of the post describes my feelings toward Tony and I might vote there.

[VOTE: TONY] aubergine

got my eye on sabie too, feels a little passive in a discomfiting way (yes I know about the surgery but still)

if daisy was redirected or something

whoever did that action knows the identity of the real 3p

if you are town, you MUST claim who you redirected daisy to

that will out the 3P

if it was a scum action they wont claim it but theyll probably off the 3P for us

I'll nip this.

If you are scum and have a controlled misdirect, claim your action. Pretend to be town. Get off the hook, we won't kill scum today. Do it now.

Is this like a Socratic trap or something

no that would involve asking about horses or something. I'm just giving straight advice to the scum team

Lmao why

ISOing Tony and I’m less up in arms with him than I thought he’d be.

my thing with fg is

whatever she is doing... clearly is not working for her? yet she doesnt back down

why as a wolf does she continue to do this? arent there less conspicuous ways of wolfing than this?

im stubborn

I did this as a wolf in some game, same position as FG. Came into the thread with scum reads, starting scum reading the most townie player just to try to create some credit. It's meh.

I guess my bugaboo with Tony is more about how I can’t really see a progression in his thinking or understand where his reads seem to be coming from — therefore there’s a sense of arbitrariness attached

From Tony

Spoiler: show

Yeah I guess it can be one of FG/LC and like Colin and whatever. Colin on scum team makes sense with one of the more aggressive posters, they'd feel restricted by an inactive scummate in a way that others wouldn't

I don't think I've ever said this before but I'm okay voting for Colin.

WOW 30 pages to catch up on good lord

never mind colin showed up

Btw I have about 7 pages left to catch up on, but .... I’m a miller

how the heck did he read that so quickly? how did he get through so many posts before claiming miller? these questions are half serious.

I continue to feel great about the state of the game. I am comfortable with my civilian reads; indeed that is only becoming more true as Day 1 progresses.

My clear POE pool remains: ColinIsCool, DrWilgy, sprityo, Long Con, and Funnygurl555. I said earlier in the phase that my goal was a pool of seven, so I have room for two more on the tinfoil side. I’d look first to Alison and TonyStarkPrime for that “tier”.

Anyone who has severe misgivings about this arrangement (ideally beyond “I’m on the list, how dare you”) should speak up.

Jay is checking off all of the boxes on the classically scum list. It makes me... uncomfortable.

what

Yeah this was a weird post for me too.

wolf

maybe it's Colin instead of Epi or Jay, I guess.

colin is most likely wolf I think, followed by pawn and then wilgy in that order.

I understand the current POE pool feeling too easy, or feeling default. Those aren't things I tend to concern myself with, because I view them as distant cousins of the gambler's fallacy. Still, I am open to hearing suspicions of/cases against the remainder of the game. If you accept the premise that today's claim shenanigans clear this group: Wisp, Hally, Long Con, and Spacedaisy, then you're left with the following names to pick at:

ColinIsCool
TonyStarkPrime
DrWilgy
KitsuShel
sabie12
Epignosis
Alison
JaggedJimmyJay
sprityo/Pawn Lelouch

None of these people are "cleared". So have at it. Tell me what your worries are. Tell them what your worries are. I direct this to anyone in general.

sabie has half a dozen things going for her. Kitsu ... can be a wolf? No the miller claim is a soft clear. Also probably doesn't kill Nanook but that's subtle. Wilgy is townish. Colin is maybe trending town. Epi trending wolf, seriously there's nothing towny there. Alison is a ???, different from the last game but could go either way. There are a few things that pushed me in a positive direction here now that I think about it. Jay is still on the wolfy side but I don't think can reasonably be a wolf without this poe still getting one hit and the SK. Jay should sort himself out thus. Pawn most likely wolf but colin most likely scum hit overall, changing my opinion. But maybe not Jay/Pawn. I dunno. Epi/Pawn/Kitsu? Or Epi/Pawn/Alison?


per "feeling too easy", I mean, if I walk into a game and the poe is Wilgy, Colin, and the replacement, my thought isn't "too easy" my thought is "something is wrong"

like wilgy/kitsu/Colin? yeah makes perfect sense

That probably should unalign me from Colin, and I really want Jay to try to create a compelling case I'm mafia from there

lol tell? nah.
I expressed numerous times the idea that Pawn was unlikely to be the SK and that thus it would be better to chop Colin. It doesn't make me town but it does reduce the likelihood I was scum with Colin. As to the parenthetical, this is where our good friend Bayes comes into play. But that's sorta irrelevant I guess.

like what I'm bussing Colin? but then why do I attack Alison for connecting Colin and Pawn?

I'll tell you that I'm going to come to the conclusion that Colin has high scum equity and fits in all the most common teams. I've pointed to posts that align him with Alison, I think he's potentially aligned with you. He's less aligned with Epi, though that's more the case with the spot that Nutella currently occupies.

Tony's confusing-ass posts make this very difficult for me to process. My instinct is to separate these two, but I cannot claim to be confident. Colin's treatment of Tony could be a bit opportunistic if he's a mafioso.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Assertion:

Tony wanted to chop Not Pawn because Pawn's flip outs him. Nobody else in this game can so clearly be associated with the notion that the mafia knew Pawn was 3P.

[Alison]

I think it's super funny that a slot that had "two personalities" (sprityo and Pawn) ended up flipping a character that has two personalities

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Colin and Wilgy/nutella interaction

From Colin

Spoiler: show

I’m not gonna put any effort into defending him cause I don’t feel strongly town at all, but Wilgy feels like a crapshoot lynch at this point.

I’ve seen Wilgy as a townie making the same level of contribution like, a billion times.

DrWilgy - within town meta

(trustfall)

From DrWilgy

Spoiler: show

Absolutely nothing

From nutella

Spoiler: show

Like i guess wolves could just be colin/alison/tsp but idk

[SNIP]

i guess my poe is something like
tsp > alison > colin > sabie > epi > daisy

yeah I can see colin/alison connection pretty easily

I actually think TSP's relatively incoherent short posts and approach to mechanical/flavor stuff is a bit more in his town meta than not

now that I know wilgy was town I kinda wonder if colin expressed tmi on him (in addition to the potential jay tmi)

he had a fairly easy-seeming town meta read of wilgy based on like not very much


but then again on the other hand I do remember kinda feeling a slight townread from wilgy's few existing posts before I got his rolecard lol

wdym giving up on his poe

I guess it's only giving up if he tries to get me chopped over Colin or you. That's the suggestion I get from his posts.

well I'm hoping to be relatively cleared soon enough


Colin is prob my top suspect tho, so if it can be shown that you're unaligned with him that's cool


the way he tagged along to hally's case on pawn definitely looks opportunistic in retrospect, whether he thought pawn was town or 3p, he was an easy poe target who wolf!colin knew was not on his team

@nutella, if neither Tony nor Long Con is a mafioso, who is?

colin and alison are my main suspects rn

daisy, sabie, epi are kind of my fringe poe/wildcards

I'd feel better if there was any substance here pre-nutella. She just got here in a very developed game context, so it is difficult for me to give a lot of weight to her posts here. The bit where nutella mused over Colin potentially showing TMI on her predecessor spoke to me a little bit. I'd say these two are technically compatible if not necessarily compelling.

[Alison]

I'm feeling this as an emergent POE pool. I would like to more thoroughly investigate the two-way interactions with actual public notes. I will try to work on that during this night phase as best as I can.

ColinIsCool
TonyStarkPrime
DrWilgy/nutella
Epignosis
Alison

If this PoE is in order I'm fairly happy

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I'm feeling this as an emergent POE pool. I would like to more thoroughly investigate the two-way interactions with actual public notes. I will try to work on that during this night phase as best as I can.

ColinIsCool
TonyStarkPrime
DrWilgy/nutella
Epignosis
Alison

If this PoE is in order I'm fairly happy

no particular order

[Alison]

So I have basically agreed with the town core all along but as always I have a fear that someone is being incorrectly cleared somewhere

If I had subbed in before nanook had died, I absolutely would have suspected him lol and he can roll in his grave for me expressing any contrarianism to the established poe, but having subbed into one of the poe'd slots and now knowing it's town, I have no choice but to assume someone is probably going deep here

Like i guess wolves could just be colin/alison/tsp but idk

I never really felt the daisy TR originally, then the redirected check or whatever was meh

hally/wisp/lc as close to mech clear as possible in this bastardish setup

jay.... prob just town

sabie idk honestly

kitsu i agree with the reasoning to clear

epi.... could be mafia here? the implication that mafia knew pawn was 3p doesn't seem to mesh with how he treated pawn though?


i guess my poe is something like
tsp > alison > colin > sabie > epi > daisy

talk to me about this ordering?

Also consider this: if mafia had a targeted redirector, they knew pawn was 3p. If mafia are truly poe clamped they probably want to leave pawn alive so he can kill townies with his extra KP (maybe even kill both investigatives in one night so we can't get any info). This suggests that wolf Epi does have a reason for defending pawn. Why is it inconsistent in your eyes?

[Alison]

It was this little progression. Nanook did not explicitly draw any connection between Colin and Long Con, so the way Alison structured her question makes Colin's inclusion feel forced. I don't know why that needs to be presented as an LC vs. Colin comparison.

Because nanook wanted to vote Colin and I wanted him to vote LC, who I suspected at the time. So i was trying to engage him in a comparison between the two players to get him to vote my way

[Alison]

we should start planning our actions

i think it would be a good idea for us to investigate nut? i really like the idea of having a confirmed town!nut if shes town. at the same time i thiiiink i may be able to pick out nuts village game as she posts more

epi is also a good choice for an investigation i think?

colin has claimed miller so we can vig or yeet him ig

i will voyeur whoever wisp and daisy decide to check

and whatever protective role we have (if we do have one) should pretty much always be on wisp

agree with this post

[Alison]

yeah that's right. I wasn't really thinking about it.

Tony's mafia. His "suspicion" of me has been vague horseshit all game long. He can hardly stick a random take into the thread without immediately pulling back on it. He has no real opinions of anything.

Each of you out there: I challenge you to tell me what TonyStarkPrime's read is on you -- not what takes he has given on assorted posts, but what his read is.

He thinks im scummy i think? Not really sure

I see some assorted speculation that I am colin's partner and I should be investigated at night

1) i welcome you to help me exe my wolf buddy if you believe in alison/colin worlds, as I believe colin is one od the most appealing exes next day phase

2) i welcome an investigate on me as well. I think the investigate should go between nutella, me and Epi. If you're paranoid I am misleading you, just investigate me

[Alison]

cursory glance shows you thought he couldn't be 3p for "reasons"


hm

I'm not talking about those reasons and will not because I was clearly wrong. But it doesn't make sense for a wolf, especially a wolf who knows that pawn is the SK (but I don't think the wolves did know that), to present that as a thought.

why not

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Colin and Epignosis interactions

From Colin

Spoiler: show

WOW 30 pages to catch up on good lord

What's good, Colin?

Who's good, Colin?

Jay, Alison, NANOOK are my three amigos

Epignosis - within town meta

(trustfall)

My concern with Epignosis more broadly: if we're suggesting Pawn is a civilian and Colin is a civilian, then given the state of the game and Epi's own reads: we're solved. The team must necessarily be: DrWilgy, Alison, TonyStarkPrime.

If the team is anything else, Epignosis has left himself no space to figure it out. There's nobody left. That could be a great idea if it's motivated by well-reasoned reads.

Epi's civilian view of Pawn doesn't strike me that way. "Colin has shown more effort" is a read I'd expect Epignosis to complain about if he saw someone else make it.

I don’t follow you. Why can’t Epi change his mind?

I gotta say I’m not drunk anymore but I don’t follow the discussion of Epignosis at all.

I believe you when you say you would defend your wolf buddy in that position. I think 95% of wolves in your position would not have the cojones to do that which is why I assumed you would not. I think it is a move that can turn the game around if you can pull it off and I really appreciate that kind of fearless attitude as scum

I mean, it would really depend, but I kinda hate bussing. Feels rude and the people here are so paranoid that it doesn’t pay off as the ploy it’s envisioned as. You can change opinions at any given phase, but you can’t add a scummate once you’ve taken deliberate action to take one away.

Incidentally I think Epignosis would tell you something similar but I don’t know if that’s relevant.

pawn iso:

Spoiler: show

I will note that 1 wolf in that duo seems more likely than both fmpov. That dynamic shown from the quote lists from Jay seems too blatant and forced for a pair of wolves to feel like its a good idea. Tying themselves together like that will inevitably lead to both falling toogether eventually. There's too much attention on them, it just is never worth it.

this is a safe take. we know lc is town so there was only at most one wolf in lc/fg. and thats what pawn says here too. cool. this is a case of sounding reasonable without saying a whole lot that moves the game forward or means anything

caveat that this was his first post and he’d just rep’d in, so maybe this was the first thing he saw that he felt he could comment on readily. okay. i cant hold that against him

I’m not anticipating a single cop existing in this game tbh

I’m pretty annoyed we didn’t get those extra 10 minutes I was planning a “naw we’re just killing LC” swing back, and now we have no flip at all. Not great.

Actually it is a good thing. And that's kind of uncalled for and suspicious. Why add chaos intentionally to the end of the day? How is that even remotely town?

Directed chaos forces urgency. Urgency means people have less time to plan posts, so anything they say usually has higher odds of being more genuine than most other posts, even as town, since there is still going to be less of the normal proofreading, sentence structure work, etc. If you want to get honesty out of players and force people to take sides? It's a good way to do it and fits perfectly well as a town play, especially if onto someone that is a suspect.

Even accounting for your viewpoint being biased by not wanting to go down, I don't get how and why you're unable to see any sort of town intention within the play. It's off to say the least considering that its obvious.

Also hey Wisp, it'll be fun to finally play a game with you. ^_^

this is another post that contains no meaningful solving. its simply a post about mafia theory

same caveat as above though

why?

She hates angleshooting and what we were doing was fairly close to it

And you believe that hate is inherently alignment based? Meaning she wouldn't do it as town but would as mafia or 3P?

this is a question

Someone tell me if that vote from Epi is the kind of stupid shit he would push as town?

The grammar/word placement stuff? Yeah, I remember that from Epi a lot during Inception. Its NAI as far as I know.

And so its looking like Hally/Wisp are lock cleared based off of how they've acted regarding their claims and powers. LC is like 90% cleared off it, the only reason I'm not making it a guarantee is that mechanics seem to be fucky on that front considering the amount of claimed millers. Still, basically never hit this.

SD is like 85% town. Just because what is the point? Why does she make that claim as mafia, its just a potential anchor dragging her down long term. She has a baseline competence from what I've seen, so I just don't see what's the point. What mindset or perspective makes this worthwhile as mafia?

So functionally 4 clears. Its a damn good position for us to start D2 in.

this is a summary of the claim fiasco at SoD2, but ultimately adds nothing new or meaningful to the discussion

@Pawn Lelouch where are your reads at now?

Rougher than I'd like, I need to get to the point where I can feel comfortable figuring out where I lean on my 3 nulls for now. Otherwise, I feel solid overall on this grouping.

Town:
Hally
Wisp
Spacedaisy
Longcon

Town Lean:
Jay
Epi

Null:
sabie
kitsu
TSP

Scum Lean:
Alison
Drwilgy
Colin

Scum: N/A currently

this is a reads list. fairly consensus but so are many others’ in this game

Rougher than I'd like, I need to get to the point where I can feel comfortable figuring out where I lean on my 3 nulls for now. Otherwise, I feel solid overall on this grouping.

Town:
Hally
Wisp
Spacedaisy
Longcon

Town Lean:
Jay
Epi

Null:
sabie
kitsu
TSP

Scum Lean:
Alison
Drwilgy
Colin

Scum: N/A currently

why is alison so low?

Combo of trying to lightly push against the SD clear, heavily pushing for pre flip associations earlier which is usually an easy wolf tactic to get credit or try and setup auto yeet chains, and while her point about Epi recently is a good one and mitigates my last point somewhat, I just don't like how she handled Epi's slot. It felt like she was trying to solve him and more that she was trying to shade with hypotheticals rather than anything concrete.

Overall, its more than enough to bump her to scum lean for me.

i asked him why alison is so low and this is the response

i maintain that this post is simply an amalgamation of the reasons people have suspected alison at various points in the game. these are, i think, very easy and surface level things to suspect someone for

maybe pawn believes/agrees with the reasons and genuinely finds alison scummy. but i cant say this post actually gives me confidence in that

Combo of trying to lightly push against the SD clear, heavily pushing for pre flip associations earlier which is usually an easy wolf tactic to get credit or try and setup auto yeet chains, and while her point about Epi recently is a good one and mitigates my last point somewhat, I just don't like how she handled Epi's slot. It felt like she was trying to solve him and more that she was trying to shade with hypotheticals rather than anything concrete.

Overall, its more than enough to bump her to scum lean for me.

well lc is town so alison couldnt have been trying to chain jay to him post flip by pushing them as w/w

does this change anything for you?

If that was the only one she did then yeah, it does end up pushing her back up to null again. The SD bit is a point against her but not enough for a full drop, considering the Epi bit is mitigated recently.

But I could have sworn she had done it to more than just that pair? Am I misremembering there?

we continue our exchange about his alison read. there is perhaps some hedging here

she sorta did it with me/fg but less so?

Ughhhhhh. The lack of flip info with fg makes that far more ambiguous than I like.

okay

Ughhhhhh. The lack of flip info with fg makes that far more ambiguous than I like.

i kinda doubt she is w/w with fg anyway just from their interactions? so that probably wasnt a case of her chaining me to a teammate either

Okay, you've read more than I have and have the real time interactions that flow differently. I'll take your word on that interaction grouping since I've got too much of a headache to deep dive right now.

okay

if people dont post themselves clear i cant clear them

I would but I'm doing a lot of jury work plus law school prep and searching. Which is not at all AI, more just me apologizing for the relative dearth of posts and info.

this is a very weird post

pawn was not around at the time and i made a long post that contained that one line that pawn singles out and quotes. he excuses his lack of activity and apologizes for it

its just... kinda weird to me. why does v!pawn feel like he should single this out and defend himself here? why is this where his focus goes when he pops into the thread as opposed to like, contributing to the broader discussion about the game state that my post was a part of?

there was an actual, real discussion going on at the time that v!pawn could have contributed to. or he could have jumped in to comment on literally anything else that he found meaningful and where his insight might help us

instead he excuses his inactivity and then leaves again

I would but I'm doing a lot of jury work plus law school prep and searching. Which is not at all AI, more just me apologizing for the relative dearth of posts and info.

no worries, i get people can be busy

question though: i feel like its now a couple of times where you pop in to respond to a very recent post

are you watching the thread and not commenting?

More that when I start feeling burned out on writing I pop over to this tab to do catchup and reset on that front a bit.

Where I feel I need to give some show that I'm alive despite not really wanting to write long posts. So it's more that I'm commenting only when I'm reading the thread? If that makes sense.

i question him about the above post and heres his answer. then he goes away

so that’s it. that’s all of pawn’s game related posts so far

i dont want this to be too harsh. i get pawn is busy and i appreciate him being willing to sub in here for us

my issue with him is not simply his lack of posts. its what he dedicates those posts to. its where he comments and where he doesnt. what he chooses to use his limited posts on feels... less than optimal. and the substance of those comments in terms of real, genuine game solving is, to me, either lacking or nonexistent. theres no spark

so thats why im most suspicious of pawn out of the three inactives

i should probably go back over sprityo’s posts too to be more comprehensive but i remember them being... less than great too

This is a good ISO.

What's good about it?

I think it points out how Pawn’s behavior is calculated and/or kinda scummy

I gotta say I’m not drunk anymore but I don’t follow the discussion of Epignosis at all.

What am I saying that you aren't understanding?

It was the discussion about you [being scum], not anything you said.

From Epignosis

Spoiler: show

Moved my vote to [VOTE: ColinisCool] aubergine.

COLINISCOOL
LONG CON
TONYSTARKPRIME

Bad
Bad
Good

Comments coming soon.

Spoiler: show

I don't put much stock in this exercise either, but LC has one "bad" and it's Kitsushel? Over Colin and Wilgy?

It'd be neat and swell and stuff if some folks could give me a quick ranking (least-to-most suspicious/worthy of chopping) of the four players <20 posts:

KitsuShel
sprityo
DrWilgy
ColinIsCool

Swap the last two names and there's my list.

WOW 30 pages to catch up on good lord

What's good, Colin?

Who's good, Colin?

@Epignosis im curious where you’re at with things atm

My Day 1 preferences as of this moment:

LC, spirtyo, Wilgy, TSP, FunnyGirl

No particular order. These individuals displease me.

I'm glad Colin showed up and I haven't seen the guy in ages, so I'm fine leaving him alone.

I moved my vote to Colin for now.

I moved my vote from Colin to Wilgy just because.

TSP, why are you voting for Colin?

@Epignosis who is bad and why?

have you called anyone scum this game yet?

Not really. I'm working the other way around.

I have no reason to believe DrWilgy or TonyStarkPrime are good. Colin has shown more effort. I looked through TonyStarkPrime's posts to figure out why he's voting Colin and I didn't find any answer in his posts. I don't believe Alison's treatment of me is genuine. That is my group right now.

Why should Alison not be in this group?

epi I would like you to answer my question about why you're scumreading TSP

but also I would like you to consider the following things:

- you have indicated that your preferred killpool is [me, TSP, wilgy] because you townread pawn and think colin has "put in effort"

- I am very unlikely to be the execute this day. I have shown why leaving wilgy alone is correct (feel free to tell me if you disagree about my reasoning there) and I don't think it's very likely that TSP eats the chop over wilgy/colin/pawn today just based on how the game has gone

- therefore it seems reasonably unlikely for people in your killpool to be shot today. are you willing to compromise by consolidating on colin?

Same as with you. I don't see civilian gears turning the machine that is TonyStarkPrime.

Why are you voting for Colin and not Pawn?

Colin has shown more effort.

Why do you care about this?

I don't. Colin is still in my list.

My concern with Epignosis more broadly: if we're suggesting Pawn is a civilian and Colin is a civilian, then given the state of the game and Epi's own reads: we're solved. The team must necessarily be: DrWilgy, Alison, TonyStarkPrime.

If the team is anything else, Epignosis has left himself no space to figure it out. There's nobody left. That could be a great idea if it's motivated by well-reasoned reads.

Epi's civilian view of Pawn doesn't strike me that way. "Colin has shown more effort" is a read I'd expect Epignosis to complain about if he saw someone else make it.

You can suggest what you like. I call it like I see it.

Nobody is voting DrWilgy but me now, and nobody is voting Alison and nobody is voting TSP.

"Colin has shown more effort" wasn't an opinion about his alignment. It was a comparison to Wilgy and I still would lynch Colin, meaning I would be all the more willing to lynch Wilgy.

Why are you locking me into this perspective or that perspective? I will change my mind as I please.

My concern with Epignosis more broadly: if we're suggesting Pawn is a civilian and Colin is a civilian, then given the state of the game and Epi's own reads: we're solved. The team must necessarily be: DrWilgy, Alison, TonyStarkPrime.

If the team is anything else, Epignosis has left himself no space to figure it out. There's nobody left. That could be a great idea if it's motivated by well-reasoned reads.

Epi's civilian view of Pawn doesn't strike me that way. "Colin has shown more effort" is a read I'd expect Epignosis to complain about if he saw someone else make it.

I don’t follow you. Why can’t Epi change his mind?

Point to Colin.

I gotta say I’m not drunk anymore but I don’t follow the discussion of Epignosis at all.

What am I saying that you aren't understanding?

It was the discussion about you [being scum], not anything you said.

Ah. Then I apologize for misunderstanding you.

I see no good reason to dissociate these two. There are some isolated moments, primarily in Epignosis' posts, that I think could indicate mafia compatibility too. Namely, Epi was vaguely negative when Colin had no content to speak of. As soon as Colin showed up though, Epi was content to give him passes on the basis of very frivolous shite. I can forgive "I'll leave him alone since he has been gone from the site for a while". I struggle to forgive "he has given more effort", especially when it had to come with the "it's not about Colin's alignment" caveat. These two can be mafia teammates.

[Alison]

[VOTE: pawn lelouch] aubergine

town colin has no reason to oppose a lelouch execute there btw. i think they are buddies now

arbitrary

this is weird too. maybe it points to Alison/colin being unaligned? or maybe the idea is w!alison is freed from colin suspicion when pawn flips not wolf. unclear

I would lean more toward the latter

why would i be freed from colin suspicion

[Alison]

Estimated number of times Epignosis has voiced suspicion of Alison: 9-11

Estimated number of times Alison has voiced suspicion of Epignosis: 6-8

Numbers vary because I don't want a single discussion of numerous posts to count more than once.

Number of votes either has placed for the other: 0

maybe b/c we're both intelligent players who understand that the other person is not getting exed d1 or d2 and prefer to use voting agency in more productive ways?

(also, if this is meant to imply an epi/alison wolf team, do you really think epi "i do not bus" gnosis treats his teammate the way he has treated me?)

[Alison]

ready for this spice? jay/epi/alison, pawn is 3p

no, pawn isn't 3p. It can be Wilgy I guess

"oops, I wasn't supposed to know this"

I believe this could be a legit wolf slip

[Alison]

man that's the greatest single post rebuttal to a scum team I've ever seen

I don't think that even dissociates them.

all three of them? I don't think it disassociates colin and alison, but certainly LC

I think that's a good reason to tie Alison and LC together lol. She has made it quite clear she will do what she feels is optimal for her mafia team rather than what "looks the best". Refusing to allow LC out of a town core is very much optimal if they're teamed.

If I was LC's wolf buddy there I would 100% hard defend him, yes. Weird thing to bring up though? Like do you suspect LC or what?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

man that's the greatest single post rebuttal to a scum team I've ever seen

I don't think that even dissociates them.

all three of them? I don't think it disassociates colin and alison, but certainly LC

I think that's a good reason to tie Alison and LC together lol. She has made it quite clear she will do what she feels is optimal for her mafia team rather than what "looks the best". Refusing to allow LC out of a town core is very much optimal if they're teamed.

If I was LC's wolf buddy there I would 100% hard defend him, yes. Weird thing to bring up though? Like do you suspect LC or what?

Not really. My larger concern there was that Tony's mindset made no sense to me.

[Alison]

PoE, ordered from most to least preferred exes

Colin > epi > TSP > nutella

Just realized that we should probably focus investigates on the nonmiller slots so SD and Wisp can both be on them. I can't remember if Epi claimed miller - he would be a good investigation target if not.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

PoE, ordered from most to least preferred exes

Colin > epi > TSP > nutella

Just realized that we should probably focus investigates on the nonmiller slots so SD and Wisp can both be on them. I can't remember if Epi claimed miller - he would be a good investigation target if not.

1) Mr legitimate wolf slip is 3rd?

2) How do you feel Pawn's flip reflects on Epignosis?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Colin and Alison interactions

From Colin

Spoiler: show

I don’t believe it’s W/W

Long Con comes from an older generation of mafia in this community. We come from the same mafia background. It’s my experience that he tends to protect teammates rather than call attention to them.

I think it’s either a genuine town rage or he’s a wolf who is overreacting about something that I don’t think many of us were thinking much about.

Does this post TMI Jay to be town or nah

I don't really understand why this post could be interpreted as TMI

Daisy says it’s not W/W but there’s just discussion of LC with no consideration that Jay could be wolf.

Town reads:

Alison - maybe my top townread, feels like the most solviest mindset and I find myself nodding a lot in agreement

I like the cut of Alison’s jib, I like their attitude toward the game. It’s not a townlock or anything cause it’s Day 1 and it’s all uninformed guesswork right now but I feel good there.

WOW 30 pages to catch up on good lord

What's good, Colin?

Who's good, Colin?

Jay, Alison, NANOOK are my three amigos

Alison - supertowning it D1

(trustfall)

Does ColinIsCool know JaggedJimmyJay's alignment?

Spoiler: show

I don’t believe it’s W/W

Long Con comes from an older generation of mafia in this community. We come from the same mafia background. It’s my experience that he tends to protect teammates rather than call attention to them.

I think it’s either a genuine town rage or he’s a wolf who is overreacting about something that I don’t think many of us were thinking much about.

Does this post TMI Jay to be town or nah

JJJ - seems like a duh at this moment

Jay is checking off all of the boxes on the classically scum list. It makes me... uncomfortable.

what

Yeah this was a weird post for me too.

Whatever our setup preferences, let's try to refrain from groaning about the setup. That's never fun for a host to read. We all come from different backgrounds and are accustomed to different norms.

Anyone is always free to send a PM to Sloonei though with grievances. He's our moderator on duty.

Jay, vote for ... whoever you want

is this a real question

Yes.

Do you have any general theory of the game, or are you just spouting random takes to maintain some image of involvement?

This latter portion of the post describes my feelings toward Tony and I might vote there.

If you’re scum bub I’m probably not catching you so have fun.

let's execute this

Look, there’s an old evergreen I like to bandy about in times like these ...

I’m not bad, I’m bad at Mafia.

The only times I can ever remember myself “catching“ Jay as mafia were not games (might have just been one, actually) where he was directing activity in the thread, forming POEs, serving as morale captain, etc. I just don’t see scum Jay there, and if there is scum Jay there, it’s beyond my abilities right now to sort through his ISO and make that case. Is that defeatist? Hi, I’m Colin, nice to meet you.

I’ve gotten in trouble as scum for TMIing Jay in games past so I see where the accusation is coming from, but here it’s just a read.

The only times I can ever remember myself “catching“ Jay as mafia were not games (might have just been one, actually) where he was directing activity in the thread, forming POEs, serving as morale captain, etc. I just don’t see scum Jay there, and if there is scum Jay there, it’s beyond my abilities right now to sort through his ISO and make that case. Is that defeatist? Hi, I’m Colin, nice to meet you.

I’ve gotten in trouble as scum for TMIing Jay in games past so I see where the accusation is coming from, but here it’s just a read.

I have two possible beliefs I could hold.

1) I could believe that Colin is just a very defeatist person and signs up to games knowing that he's basically going to be pocketed and work against town if JJJ rolls wolf, and also has no desire to improve by at least trying to catch JJJ as scum

2) I could believe that Colin is just making up a random excuse as scum when questioned about his behavior in the thread

I believe 2) is significantly more likely than 1) unless you show me compelling evidence as to why 1) is the belief backed by more evidence. I think 1) is pretty far-fetched and I just don't see it so you'll have to do a lot of work to convince me it's true, like showing me a couple of past games where you just completely ignored the possibility of JJJ scum when you were town because you were convinced you'd never catch him.

You’re reading a lot into this when you really shouldn’t.

Jay’s behavior here is so towny — we, meaning the game at large, seem to largely agree on this.

If he isn’t town, the only argument I can make to that end is tinfoil, and I try to avoid tinfoil because I have the bad habit of buying into my own BS constantly. Maybe at a future date if we’re both alive I’ll scope out Jay, but as for now, until I’m given a reason otherwise, he’s not on my radar.

That is all my little jokey post to a friend meant. If I am to be lynched over it, then so be it, but realize shortly thereafter that it’s a pretty bad reason to lynch me.

My top suspect is Colin because I find it impossible to understand why he would tell JJJ "if you're scum I'm never finding you" on D2

Sounds like a lazy excuse to get out of a TMI accusation rather than a genuine belief in JJJ's ironclad uncatchability as scum

I thought you like, just said that that wasn’t the main reason to lynch me? But now it is?

This is a good ISO.

is this a post wolf colin makes about his scumbuddy when both their lives are in deadly peril?

i dont think so

Eh. If they're both POE-clamped, generic distancing might feel like the only move.

I feel like in a POE clamp the most obvious move is to violently attack your partner in the vain hopes of scraping out of the POE tomorrow with your partner's sacrifice (or letting them scrape if you flip)

This kind of shit earns you 0 towncred when your partner flips. Do you think Colin is the type of player to go for some next level WIFOM game knowing I'd react like this to him saying that? I don't.

How would you have any idea what kind of player I am? Where are you deriving such information?

How would you have any idea what kind of player I am? Where are you deriving such information?

I was modelling your behavior by assuming you adhered to basic game theory. In this situation if you and Pawn are scum, at least one of you is 100% going to flip scum, and the best result is to try to get the other to survive. This means you need to gain towncred by bussing, unless you are engaging in a WIFOM play.

Any scum that looks at the vote totals and thinks “welp, nothing we can do now!” (assuming Pawn is scum, which I can roll with) this many hours out is waaaaaaaaaaay more of a defeatist than I am. The EOD hot potato is a sacred Syndicate ritual.

I believe you when you say you would defend your wolf buddy in that position. I think 95% of wolves in your position would not have the cojones to do that which is why I assumed you would not. I think it is a move that can turn the game around if you can pull it off and I really appreciate that kind of fearless attitude as scum

I mean, it would really depend, but I kinda hate bussing. Feels rude and the people here are so paranoid that it doesn’t pay off as the ploy it’s envisioned as. You can change opinions at any given phase, but you can’t add a scummate once you’ve taken deliberate action to take one away.

Incidentally I think Epignosis would tell you something similar but I don’t know if that’s relevant.

I gotta say part of me keeps imagining sabie and Kitsu in scumchat looking at our grand unified POE and laughing evilly. I don’t have them in the green yet

sucks to be poe clamped and have to think of a way to widen it, doesnt it?

I just keep imagining a world where I get lynched and the thread goes “Oh, shit, what now?!” And then the town loses.

Actually, I don’t have to imagine it, because it’s exactly what happened in the last game I played here.

From Alison

Spoiler: show

COLINISCOOL
LONG CON
TONYSTARKPRIME

Good
Good
Bad

Nanook what do you think of FG and LC after recent developments?

FG remains high end POE imo, LC low end

Sorry, didn't see this post before I asked you about LC.

Let's talk about the comparison between LC and Colin. You've indicated that you would want to kill Colin more than LC. Why do you think Colin has higher scum equity?

I don’t believe it’s W/W

Long Con comes from an older generation of mafia in this community. We come from the same mafia background. It’s my experience that he tends to protect teammates rather than call attention to them.

I think it’s either a genuine town rage or he’s a wolf who is overreacting about something that I don’t think many of us were thinking much about.

Does this post TMI Jay to be town or nah

I don't really understand why this post could be interpreted as TMI

ColinIsCool - hasn't posted enough for me to get a good read on him. I didn't really see anything I'd call particularly townie or scummy in the posts I did see.

I think Wilgy and Colin give the sense that they are still struggling to find their footing in this game. Nanook wants to whack the lurkers but I think inactivity is generally NAI at least at this phase of the game and in this context, and I'm willing to give them time and space to generate alignment-indicative content. If it's been another day phase and they still do nothing then they can go on the chopping block.

[VOTE: colin] aubergine

be back after my tournament

lock town tier: wisp, hally, SD, LC

obvtown tier: kitsu, sabie, JJJ

suspicious but probably not the kill for today tier: TSP, epi

kill today: pawn, wilgy, colin

colin is the most suspicious because I think the "if you're scum I'm not catching you so have fun" post was extremely bad

I wasn't very convinced by your case on Colin being TMI but I suspect him for unrelated reasons anyway so I'm happy with a Colin execute

You’re reading a lot into this when you really shouldn’t.

Jay’s behavior here is so towny — we, meaning the game at large, seem to largely agree on this.

If he isn’t town, the only argument I can make to that end is tinfoil, and I try to avoid tinfoil because I have the bad habit of buying into my own BS constantly. Maybe at a future date if we’re both alive I’ll scope out Jay, but as for now, until I’m given a reason otherwise, he’s not on my radar.

That is all my little jokey post to a friend meant. If I am to be lynched over it, then so be it, but realize shortly thereafter that it’s a pretty bad reason to lynch me.

you were in the POE before you made that post and would still be in the POE if you hadn't made it

TSP has I think shown more effort than Colin. If you're reading Colin as townier than Wilgy because he put in more effort, then are you reading TSP as less town than Colin despite putting in more effort, simply because you don't understand why TSP is voting Colin? In other words, are you scumreading TSP because you don't understand why he's voting for Colin?

My top suspect is Colin because I find it impossible to understand why he would tell JJJ "if you're scum I'm never finding you" on D2

Sounds like a lazy excuse to get out of a TMI accusation rather than a genuine belief in JJJ's ironclad uncatchability as scum

Epi do you see civillian gears turning in Colin's brain? And, insofar as half the game is on Colin by default for low activity + POE, why is it that TSP's reasonless vote for Colin is suspicious?

colin, one day I hope to roll scum with you and just open wolf and massacre town without a single thought for subtlety

I really appreciate the way you think about scum play regardless of your alignment

I gotta say part of me keeps imagining sabie and Kitsu in scumchat looking at our grand unified POE and laughing evilly. I don’t have them in the green yet

Funny I was thinking the same thing about you and alison

?

you think colin and me are laughing in the wolf chat about the POE?

if we are both wolves we would not be happy about this POE

[VOTE: pawn lelouch] aubergine

town colin has no reason to oppose a lelouch execute there btw. i think they are buddies now

I highlighted one moment here that spoke to me nicely. Colin seemed to become a bit indignant in his handling of pressure from Alison in such a way that I don't think it looks like he is dealing with his teammate. If he is a mafioso, then there is a release of frustration evident in that moment. A mafioso Colin might have also meant to pocket Alison with that initial "top town read" judgment.

[Alison]

PoE, ordered from most to least preferred exes

Colin > epi > TSP > nutella

Just realized that we should probably focus investigates on the nonmiller slots so SD and Wisp can both be on them. I can't remember if Epi claimed miller - he would be a good investigation target if not.

1) Mr legitimate wolf slip is 3rd?

2) How do you feel Pawn's flip reflects on Epignosis?

I think what you posted was something I think can be a wolf slip. It doesn't mean it is a wolf slip. I have seen town members "slip" before. I was also swayed by nutella's argument that town TSP is a bit less organized and that rapid fire posting is a slight towntell. I did take the possibility of it being a slip into account and adjusted his place on my PoE accordingly.

Don't think it really affects my read on Epi that much. If he had flipped wolf then Epi would be my #1 suspect, but he didn't. I think wolf Epi has incentives to defend 3P there (or town, if the redirector was random and he did not know Pawn was 3P) but I have no extra reason to believe Epi is scum based off the Pawn flip. So my read on Epi remains largely unchanged.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Colin and Kitsu interactions

From Colin

Spoiler: show

KitsuShel: angle shooty reasons

Anyone else that wouldn't kill Nanook? Maybe Kitsu? Let's WIFOM for days

I know literally nothing about Kitsu, other than I gave them a pass for the miller thing

The KitsuShel miller slip thing could have just been NAI now that I’m reflecting on it more.

Long Con - semi cleared
TonyStarkPrime - acting differently than I remember as scum (Fallout?)
DrWilgy - within town meta
Spacedaisy - forthright and unpretentious
Wisp - semi cleared
KitsuShel - miller slip
sabie12 - within town meta
Epignosis - within town meta
Alison - supertowning it D1
JaggedJimmyJay - supertowning it
Hally - semi cleared
sprityo/Pawn Lelouch - sprit didn’t give me bad vibes

Just out of curiosity, why would you call it a Miller slip? I was like, the fourth person who claimed to be one and it def wasn’t a slip.

Because you can’t quite claim something if you’re unsure what it means. Don’t worry too much about my syntax I’m pretty drunk

I gotta say part of me keeps imagining sabie and Kitsu in scumchat looking at our grand unified POE and laughing evilly. I don’t have them in the green yet

I'm feeling this as an emergent POE pool. I would like to more thoroughly investigate the two-way interactions with actual public notes. I will try to work on that during this night phase as best as I can.

ColinIsCool
TonyStarkPrime
DrWilgy/nutella
Epignosis
Alison

I feel like I’ve asked this before, but: KitsuShel?

Well, KitsuShel has 67 posts, which is a lot more than I expected, but still.

From Kitsu

Spoiler: show

Long Con - semi cleared
TonyStarkPrime - acting differently than I remember as scum (Fallout?)
DrWilgy - within town meta
Spacedaisy - forthright and unpretentious
Wisp - semi cleared
KitsuShel - miller slip
sabie12 - within town meta
Epignosis - within town meta
Alison - supertowning it D1
JaggedJimmyJay - supertowning it
Hally - semi cleared
sprityo/Pawn Lelouch - sprit didn’t give me bad vibes

Just out of curiosity, why would you call it a Miller slip? I was like, the fourth person who claimed to be one and it def wasn’t a slip.

I don't think these two are mafia teammates. If Colin is a mafioso, then his takes on Kitsu follow a predictable progression: <<Kitsu is town via angleshoot, I guess I have to say that>> | <<okay maybe now I can try to put a dent in Kitsu's armor>>

Kitsu's only post kinda screams at me too. Just doesn't look like teammate stuff.

[Alison]

A mafioso Colin might have also meant to pocket Alison with that initial "top town read" judgment.

he must have a really bad understanding of my personality if he believes that I am the kind of person who townreads someone just because they townread me

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I think what you posted was something I think can be a wolf slip. It doesn't mean it is a wolf slip. I have seen town members "slip" before. I was also swayed by nutella's argument that town TSP is a bit less organized and that rapid fire posting is a slight towntell. I did take the possibility of it being a slip into account and adjusted his place on my PoE accordingly.

k

Don't think it really affects my read on Epi that much. If he had flipped wolf then Epi would be my #1 suspect, but he didn't. I think wolf Epi has incentives to defend 3P there (or town, if the redirector was random and he did not know Pawn was 3P) but I have no extra reason to believe Epi is scum based off the Pawn flip. So my read on Epi remains largely unchanged.

valid

[JaggedJimmyJay]

A note that may apply to both Tony and Epignosis is that, beyond hoping for a serial killer to eliminate more civilians just by chance, is that actively defending Pawn reduce's Pawn's incentive to shoot them.

[Alison]

oh hey, speaking of colin's "top town read" on me. where did that go? I totally forgot he had it, and my last interactions with him have not felt like I was talking to someone who reads me as town the most out of everyone in the game.

[mention]ColinIsCool[/mention] what happened to that read on me?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Tony and DrWilgy/nutella interactions

From Tony

Spoiler: show

DRWILGY
SPRITYO
SPACEDAISY
WISP

who
who
bad
good

hally has to be town. scum doesn't get a fake role claim that includes a miller part and then claim miller. it just doesn't happen. I have spoken. No more discussion on this is ever allowed.

No

Wilgy!

It'd be neat and swell and stuff if some folks could give me a quick ranking (least-to-most suspicious/worthy of chopping) of the four players <20 posts:

KitsuShel
sprityo
DrWilgy
ColinIsCool

Kitsu
———randish
Colin
Wilgy
Sprit

no, pawn isn't 3p. It can be Wilgy I guess

@TonyStarkPrime why are Pawn and Wilgy not mafia?

they can be mafia. Pawn probably isn't 3p for reasons.

colin is most likely wolf I think, followed by pawn and then wilgy in that order.

like wilgy/kitsu/Colin? yeah makes perfect sense

ColinIsCool - entrance was strong, offering different takes on game state
Long Con - mechanics
TonyStarkPrime - supatown
DrWilgy - hasn't been here in a while
Spacedaisy - mechanics??
Wisp - mechanics, offering off the wall takes, general demeanor
KitsuShel - trying hard, miller claim
sabie12 - half a dozen soft derps, in town meta
Epignosis - seems earnest, in town meta
Alison - seems earnest, putting in posts
JaggedJimmyJay - aggressively trying to solve the game
Hally - first miller claim, towny demeanor, good reaction to something
sprityo/Pawn Lelouch - PRobably not 3p because reasons, hard to read the spot as any less than null

cursory glance shows you thought he couldn't be 3p for "reasons"


hm

I'm not talking about those reasons and will not because I was clearly wrong. But it doesn't make sense for a wolf, especially a wolf who knows that pawn is the SK (but I don't think the wolves did know that), to present that as a thought.

wdym giving up on his poe

I guess it's only giving up if he tries to get me chopped over Colin or you. That's the suggestion I get from his posts.

I'm sort of feeling long con / colin / Alison but we actually all could do with some increased focus on Long Con.

do you have a reason to disbelieve wisp's clear of lc?

Mechanics bring his role into some immediate disbelief. Flavorwise it would make sense for him to have some sort of insanity. As far as game state goes, there are great reasons for LC to be a wolf based on his day one behavior particularly if Colin were a teammate. Both of these things point to some reason to be at least cautious. For these reasons, LC is at the bottom of my town pile for now.

@nutella, if neither Tony nor Long Con is a mafioso, who is?

colin and alison are my main suspects rn

daisy, sabie, epi are kind of my fringe poe/wildcards

what about wilgy?

From DrWilgy

Spoiler: show

hally has to be town. scum doesn't get a fake role claim that includes a miller part and then claim miller. it just doesn't happen. I have spoken. No more discussion on this is ever allowed.

No

hally has to be town. scum doesn't get a fake role claim that includes a miller part and then claim miller. it just doesn't happen. I have spoken. No more discussion on this is ever allowed.

No

Hi buddy. You bad this game?

Wilgy!

Fuck

From nutella

Spoiler: show

yeah that's right. I wasn't really thinking about it.

Tony's mafia. His "suspicion" of me has been vague horseshit all game long. He can hardly stick a random take into the thread without immediately pulling back on it. He has no real opinions of anything.

Each of you out there: I challenge you to tell me what TonyStarkPrime's read is on you -- not what takes he has given on assorted posts, but what his read is.

like. to borrow an idea from Epi, I don't believe that you believe this.

I don't believe that you believe this

I should be cleared from the way I viewed Pawn's spot but that's neither here nor there.

elaborate?

cursory glance shows you thought he couldn't be 3p for "reasons"


hm

I'm not talking about those reasons and will not because I was clearly wrong. But it doesn't make sense for a wolf, especially a wolf who knows that pawn is the SK (but I don't think the wolves did know that), to present that as a thought.

not sure i follow lol


especially given your parenthetical why wouldn't a wolf say that? like to present a perspective of pawn being a suspect as a potential wolf in the poe still / to combat tmi? idk

Frankly I'd benefit from taking a step back and explaining my thought process more instead of just throwing random ideas into the thread.

i mean personally i think tossing underdeveloped thoughts into the thread the way you've been doing is generally a town indicator, it's just also good to be able to develop them for other people to understand if possible


like jay is scumreading you for just spitting out scattered random takes, but i lean toward that being town behavior -- making quick leaps in logic in your head about things that you don't necessarily justify in writing

kinda like turnip's town meta, they do a lot of unspoken processing and just jump to conclusions. and your play here is even a bit more transparent than theirs usually is, i think it's just hard for us to follow the way you think

@nutella, if neither Tony nor Long Con is a mafioso, who is?

colin and alison are my main suspects rn

daisy, sabie, epi are kind of my fringe poe/wildcards

what about wilgy?

I'm falling asleep now

ignore that

lol

I get nothing out of Tony's or Wilgy's posts. In terms of tone I don't think nutella really sounds like she has just jumped into the game and started chatting up her teammate Tony. Still, she also let him out of her POE pool entirely which is hard to stomach. They're technically compatible; again not super compelling.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

To be frank:

Until Tony provides a coherent explanation for "Pawn is 3P oh wait nevermind nope", I am considering him outed.

Not suspicious. Outed.

[Alison]

i think nutella is ok

like if she's bad she'll be caught really fast, and if she's not bad she's probably going to be a useful asset to town. she's generating decent content both in material and volume. If she is town it may be useful that she was evidently tracking the game as a spectator before, because it means she has more objective/unbiased reads that she can port over from the time she was a spectator.

aren't you glad you didn't exe that slot?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Note that we need to remain in a state of high urgency at all times. Jack is a host from the HC Realms tree, and that means we cannot trust conventional assumptions about how alignments may be distributed. When I see 15 players, I tend to assume 12 vs. 3 is the most standard. With Jack though, I will not count out 11 vs. 4 or even 10 vs. 5 (with potential independent involvement too). It depends upon the arrangements of the roles he has decided to feature.

The point is that we cannot fart around in a Jack game. Play hard at all times or suffer the consequences.

did I miss this the first time?

Epi's reaction is accurate.

Tony is a mafioso that knows my more extreme speculations about the setup ratios were off-base. He has no reason to question this given his own experience at HCRealms. 11v4 would be ordinary as hell there, and 10v5 isn't that different from the 9v4 I literally played there.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Tony and Epignosis interactions

From Tony

Spoiler: show

doin great epi

Gonna win this for you, slick. You just keep the faith.

are you a wolf

Epi soft locked as town imo

what does soft locked as town even mean

someone's gotta figure out if epi telling jay to vote for a player not in the game triggers the secret win condition on Jay's card

Note that we need to remain in a state of high urgency at all times. Jack is a host from the HC Realms tree, and that means we cannot trust conventional assumptions about how alignments may be distributed. When I see 15 players, I tend to assume 12 vs. 3 is the most standard. With Jack though, I will not count out 11 vs. 4 or even 10 vs. 5 (with potential independent involvement too). It depends upon the arrangements of the roles he has decided to feature.

The point is that we cannot fart around in a Jack game. Play hard at all times or suffer the consequences.

did I miss this the first time?

Epi's reaction is accurate.

KITSUSHEL
SABIE12
EPIGNOSIS
ALISON

bad
bad
bad
good

[VOTE: epi] aubergine

I'll follow this for now.

Why is Epi not in Jay's POE?

I suppose @JaggedJimmyJay

Why is Epi town nanook

also the Epi case sucks

but I’m voting for Epi anyways

Not sure if Nanook hard defends scum buddy Epi knowing that scum buddy Epi might die. Reads genuine.

ready for this spice? jay/epi/alison, pawn is 3p

maybe it's Colin instead of Epi or Jay, I guess.

I understand the current POE pool feeling too easy, or feeling default. Those aren't things I tend to concern myself with, because I view them as distant cousins of the gambler's fallacy. Still, I am open to hearing suspicions of/cases against the remainder of the game. If you accept the premise that today's claim shenanigans clear this group: Wisp, Hally, Long Con, and Spacedaisy, then you're left with the following names to pick at:

ColinIsCool
TonyStarkPrime
DrWilgy
KitsuShel
sabie12
Epignosis
Alison
JaggedJimmyJay
sprityo/Pawn Lelouch

None of these people are "cleared". So have at it. Tell me what your worries are. Tell them what your worries are. I direct this to anyone in general.

sabie has half a dozen things going for her. Kitsu ... can be a wolf? No the miller claim is a soft clear. Also probably doesn't kill Nanook but that's subtle. Wilgy is townish. Colin is maybe trending town. Epi trending wolf, seriously there's nothing towny there. Alison is a ???, different from the last game but could go either way. There are a few things that pushed me in a positive direction here now that I think about it. Jay is still on the wolfy side but I don't think can reasonably be a wolf without this poe still getting one hit and the SK. Jay should sort himself out thus. Pawn most likely wolf but colin most likely scum hit overall, changing my opinion. But maybe not Jay/Pawn. I dunno. Epi/Pawn/Kitsu? Or Epi/Pawn/Alison?


per "feeling too easy", I mean, if I walk into a game and the poe is Wilgy, Colin, and the replacement, my thought isn't "too easy" my thought is "something is wrong"

ColinIsCool - entrance was strong, offering different takes on game state
Long Con - mechanics
TonyStarkPrime - supatown
DrWilgy - hasn't been here in a while
Spacedaisy - mechanics??
Wisp - mechanics, offering off the wall takes, general demeanor
KitsuShel - trying hard, miller claim
sabie12 - half a dozen soft derps, in town meta
Epignosis - seems earnest, in town meta
Alison - seems earnest, putting in posts
JaggedJimmyJay - aggressively trying to solve the game
Hally - first miller claim, towny demeanor, good reaction to something
sprityo/Pawn Lelouch - PRobably not 3p because reasons, hard to read the spot as any less than null

For those still concerned about Epignosis, I think your best bet is to review his ISO with a specific objective: determine who would fit as his mafia teammates. When I reviewed them all in speed mode at EON1 (link), I determined he could be a compatible teammate of seven players:

ColinIsCool
Pawnyo -- these two are in the POE, and are co-compatible. So technically Epignosis, Colin, Pawnyo is a plausible team.
Spacedaisy
Wisp
Kitsu
sabie12 -- fitting with these players is irrelevant if they're civilians.
Nanook

If the team isn't exactly Epignosis/Pawn/Colin, then it's more difficult to see a mafioso in Epi. If any among you investigate for yourselves you may feel differently. I think this is ideal though as opposed to the vaguer notions of suspicion with which he has been cased for the most part.

I think it can easily be you / epi but otherwise came to the same conclusion on epi earlier.

I understand why. But like. You allow your role to be taken advantage of as quickly as possible for no discernable value.

My role has no discernible value. It is explicitly crippled. If I have to go off explaining it later in a game then people like TonyStarkPrime think I'm a bullshitter and I just don't want to deal with that. That's not healthy for the civilian faction.

You don't get plasmids or anything? Not even a wrench?

Like. I get your logic. I think it's in profile for you too. But understand that if anyone else did it this way I'd probably be voting for them right now.

Eh?

I don't think Jay's claim holds up; if he weren't valuable to the town by the work he's doing AND if his claim didn't specifically fit into his playstyle I would consider it a mechanical reason to vote for him.

From Epignosis

Spoiler: show

doin great epi

Gonna win this for you, slick. You just keep the faith.

I haven't seen enough from sabie, Spacedaisy, or TonyStarkPrime to say any of them are good. I agree about Hally, Nanook and Wisp, and I would include JJJ in there.

I had never heard of Rao's before (I usually make my own sauces), but I was shopping today and spied it on the shelf. Seven damn dollars for a jar of marinara? I think not.

COLINISCOOL
LONG CON
TONYSTARKPRIME

Bad
Bad
Good

[VOTE: epi] aubergine

I'll follow this for now.

Why is Epi not in Jay's POE?

I suppose @JaggedJimmyJay

why are you following it? how do you read epi and lc?

both are probably around 35% wolf.

How did you arrive at this percentage?

was playing civ, what's happened

Jack surprise ended today 15 minutes early, with funnygurl leading the poll by one vote. Nobody was lynched.

nice!

Why is that nice?

that should be claimed post one but okay.

No, I don't agree with that.

WEll, it's probably fine. Even if Wisp hits fake roles, LC would have it

Eh?

I understand the current POE pool feeling too easy, or feeling default. Those aren't things I tend to concern myself with, because I view them as distant cousins of the gambler's fallacy. Still, I am open to hearing suspicions of/cases against the remainder of the game. If you accept the premise that today's claim shenanigans clear this group: Wisp, Hally, Long Con, and Spacedaisy, then you're left with the following names to pick at:

ColinIsCool
TonyStarkPrime
DrWilgy
KitsuShel
sabie12
Epignosis
Alison
JaggedJimmyJay
sprityo/Pawn Lelouch

None of these people are "cleared". So have at it. Tell me what your worries are. Tell them what your worries are. I direct this to anyone in general.

sabie has half a dozen things going for her. Kitsu ... can be a wolf? No the miller claim is a soft clear. Also probably doesn't kill Nanook but that's subtle. Wilgy is townish. Colin is maybe trending town. Epi trending wolf, seriously there's nothing towny there. Alison is a ???, different from the last game but could go either way. There are a few things that pushed me in a positive direction here now that I think about it. Jay is still on the wolfy side but I don't think can reasonably be a wolf without this poe still getting one hit and the SK. Jay should sort himself out thus. Pawn most likely wolf but colin most likely scum hit overall, changing my opinion. But maybe not Jay/Pawn. I dunno. Epi/Pawn/Kitsu? Or Epi/Pawn/Alison?


per "feeling too easy", I mean, if I walk into a game and the poe is Wilgy, Colin, and the replacement, my thought isn't "too easy" my thought is "something is wrong"

Go on.

Jay is taking every opportunity to say that he doesn't think I look townie but he hasn't moved me down on his list, which seems arbitrary. His list, in fact, basically hasn't changed at all since day 1 from what I can tell.

Is this an accusation? Is JJJ mafia?

@Epignosis who is bad and why?

have you called anyone scum this game yet?

Not really. I'm working the other way around.

I have no reason to believe DrWilgy or TonyStarkPrime are good. Colin has shown more effort. I looked through TonyStarkPrime's posts to figure out why he's voting Colin and I didn't find any answer in his posts. I don't believe Alison's treatment of me is genuine. That is my group right now.

Why should Alison not be in this group?

epi I would like you to answer my question about why you're scumreading TSP

but also I would like you to consider the following things:

- you have indicated that your preferred killpool is [me, TSP, wilgy] because you townread pawn and think colin has "put in effort"

- I am very unlikely to be the execute this day. I have shown why leaving wilgy alone is correct (feel free to tell me if you disagree about my reasoning there) and I don't think it's very likely that TSP eats the chop over wilgy/colin/pawn today just based on how the game has gone

- therefore it seems reasonably unlikely for people in your killpool to be shot today. are you willing to compromise by consolidating on colin?

Same as with you. I don't see civilian gears turning the machine that is TonyStarkPrime.

Why are you voting for Colin and not Pawn?

I don't see a reason to separate these two. There's a little bit of animosity sprinkled around these posts, but the follow-up tends to be limited or lacking outright. The accusations are soft. They are compatible enough.

[sabie12]

I think tony is within his usual town meta, but I can also see how some of the things he has said like that thing about pawn could make him more sketchy.

[KitsuShel]

10/4/1
is insanely mafia sided, hard doubt
15 players in basic games are usually 12/3

Generally agreed, but HCRealms may not. Anyway I think 3 is most likely.

Generally speaking, a I’ve said before that HCRealms games are a lot different.

For instance, Incouldnt understand why some people were saying it was useless to try and figure out the write ups. At Realms, those are almost as important as the night actions.

[Alison]

worth noting that the write up did contain important information, insofar as we were able to deduce pawn was an SK (as opposed to a jester or any other kind of 3P) because of the flavor.

I don't really agree with embedding game relevant info in flavor, but we work with what we have, not what we want

[KitsuShel]

we should start planning our actions

i think it would be a good idea for us to investigate nut? i really like the idea of having a confirmed town!nut if shes town. at the same time i thiiiink i may be able to pick out nuts village game as she posts more

epi is also a good choice for an investigation i think?

colin has claimed miller so we can vig or yeet him ig

i will voyeur whoever wisp and daisy decide to check

and whatever protective role we have (if we do have one) should pretty much always be on wisp

Playing Devil’s Advocate, what if Wisp is scum and that role is their way of getting fake claims to use? But they came across an opportunity to make him look like a good guy.

Or what if he and LC are on a team and they decided to pull that stunt together to move them to give them a secure spot in towncore? That’d be ballsy af. Just tossing around different ideas.

[Alison]

according to the rules of the game (listed on the first page), all the scum are already given fake claims. if wisp is scum they do not need to go to extra effort to obtain fake claims - they will have one given to them by the host.

if wisp and LC are on a team together, then hally wouldn't have detected wisp investigating LC's role. so none of those possibilities are likely.

[Hally]

yeah that's right. I wasn't really thinking about it.

Tony's mafia. His "suspicion" of me has been vague horseshit all game long. He can hardly stick a random take into the thread without immediately pulling back on it. He has no real opinions of anything.

Each of you out there: I challenge you to tell me what TonyStarkPrime's read is on you -- not what takes he has given on assorted posts, but what his read is.

He thinks im scummy i think? Not really sure

I see some assorted speculation that I am colin's partner and I should be investigated at night

1) i welcome you to help me exe my wolf buddy if you believe in alison/colin worlds, as I believe colin is one od the most appealing exes next day phase

2) i welcome an investigate on me as well. I think the investigate should go between nutella, me and Epi. If you're paranoid I am misleading you, just investigate me

i thought you claimed miller though

[Hally]

PoE, ordered from most to least preferred exes

Colin > epi > TSP > nutella

Just realized that we should probably focus investigates on the nonmiller slots so SD and Wisp can both be on them. I can't remember if Epi claimed miller - he would be a good investigation target if not.

he did not

[Hally]

A note that may apply to both Tony and Epignosis is that, beyond hoping for a serial killer to eliminate more civilians just by chance, is that actively defending Pawn reduce's Pawn's incentive to shoot them.

this is a good point

[Hally]

To be frank:

Until Tony provides a coherent explanation for "Pawn is 3P oh wait nevermind nope", I am considering him outed.

Not suspicious. Outed.

i struggle to believe tony slips that badly but it certainly needs to be explained better than he has so far

[KitsuShel]

This is one of those times where a thought process could have used some censorship

That’s one of my biggest problems, tbh. Maybe not so much here, but in game style in general. I get excited and want to share my thoughts, but should probably think them through/hold onto them for a bit and reread before posting.

[Hally]

here is a thought

if jack daw is a town vig and knows that their kill janitors the flips of their target, they shouldn’t shoot anymore

now that we’ve yeeted the sk, the balance of the game is in towns favor because we’ve just removed a source of anti town kp

we dont really need a vig shooting now if it’s gonna mean we get no flips from the shots

i promise we’ll regret it when its like D4 and we have three flips in the PoE pool whose alignments we don’t even know

we need to be able to make connections and actually solve for the team and we can’t do that with missing flips

i can foresee a horror story down the line where we vig scum and don’t know it and the teammate who are left are able to exploit the lack of flips to screw us

so i think if jack daw is town they shouldn’t shoot

again, this only applies to if you know for a fact your kill was the reason fg didn’t flip and not because of fg herself

if that doesn’t apply fire away