Grasslands [Game Thread]

[JaggedJimmyJay]

JaggedJimmyJay do you object to Sloonei being the chop today?

At this point, no I don’t. I can poke holes in accusations rendered at Sloonei, but that doesn’t make him a civilian. I should be more secure about him than I am by now.

Does that mean you think he's suspicious because you're not secure about him or is that more a statement about Sloonei not doing enough for you to get a solid read on him?

More the latter.

As I sit back and roast on the game, I trend toward an Alison vote again. I respect her efforts to talk with me, and I don't think her posts are terrible or anything -- but my holistic vision of the game leads me to her in a mafia chair. I am a bit piqued recently too by what I perceive as awkward challenges she has given me, like it's almost competitive. If you're going to get me chopped you're going to have to do better than that. That doesn't strike me as the right mindset.

[Long Con]

I did some catching up - the above posts are sporadic responses to stuff people were aiming my way as I read up. Here's where I'm at. Hally feels slightly better today, had a plausible explanation for not suspecting LC's triple vote....

What is this triple vote?

I also found this post suspicious:

And we will take out Sloonei and Martin.

Remember I was answering a choice between exactly those two players, and another exact pair. I didn't choose Martin or Sloonei to make that statement about, I did a gun to head on two pairs and chose them.

I didn't see that your post was in response to anything, and I couldn't find much from the immediate context. What was the question you were responding to?

It was this one, it was a bunch of posts back.

Okay that makes some sense at least. Why did you choose me/Martin over Sloonei/Carotte? Do you still think me and Martin are more likely scum than Sloonei?

Actually, it was Martin/Sloonei over Carotte/Thunal. It was pretty arbitrary at that point, Sloonei had been getting a lot of heat, so I went with that one.

[tutuu]

"This "he posts a lot" is something you said 2 or 3 times now.

And the only conclusion I've come to it is that you've been looking at, evaluating, or observing me a lot (which is partially the cause of my paranoia of you)."

[mention]MartinGG99[/mention] if by "carefully looking at, evaluating and observing you a lot" you mean "scrolling down on my phone skimming over any posts that contain the word tutuu otherwise skipping them completely and noticing martin likes to type a lot of words" then yea!

[MartinGG99]

Blind Interactions

Is there anything preventing you from saying I could be "particularly compatible" with Sloonei or don't appear to be "likely mafia teammates" with Sloonei?

I could imagine arguments for both, but to see you only team me up with Long Con and not really Sloonei (who's marked as having yellow with me) has me curious.

[MartinGG99]

@MartinGG99 if by "carefully looking at, evaluating and observing you a lot" you mean "scrolling down on my phone skimming over any posts that contain the word tutuu otherwise skipping them completely and noticing martin likes to type a lot of words" then yea!

-_- I suppose that is true...but I do feel like others have made similar or larger posts.

Whatever, I guess. I can't fix that unless I spoiler all my posts.

[Thunal33]

Page 24

Some quotes may be trimmed.

When I consider universes where Alison is town, process of elimination leads me to some uninspired places, where I feel like I have to default to the most generic suspicions like Long Con and/or Nanook.

I hope in the future at some point you will realize I had vaguely the same feeling or realization.

Especially since I have to count myself as a miselimination in most people's PoE's. I just don't think there were many wolves in the D1 PoE's...they would all have to playing a bit similarly which goes against the idea that they would be distancing a bit. Especially since Carotenoid was town and one of my D1 tinfoils (Nova) was night-killed. It just looks all...."wrong" to me or something. This isn't to say there isn't a single wolf in the generic suspicions, just maybe at most 1 or 2.

Which is partially why I've been looking/tinfoiling outside of the current conflicts.

I feel the same way. I got a strong sense that wolves were happy with the D1 consensus since nobody tried to change it. Hally, tutuu, and maybe even Nutella might be deepwolves at this point (I mostly townread Nutella based on mindmelds/having the same takes but that's not strongly town indicative). This is also one of the reasons why I think Sloonei is more likely town than not at this point.

[Thunal33]

How would you feel if Alison flips town?

My first emergent thought would be "I may be wrong about Thunal", and I'd view it as a reason to really reassess you and Hally too. Even if I don't follow or feel compelled by her cases, Alison is a capable player whose reads should be given consideration if they're confirmed as genuine.

What’s the best reason to suspect LC?

There's no reason to call him town.

That's all I have.

Do you care about his alleged “derpclear”?

Also do you have any thoughts on my Big Alison Post above?

Tbh I don't even understand his derpclear or how he interpreted getting sent to the grasslands so I certainly can't clear him off it.

[Thunal33]

JaggedJimmyJay do you object to Sloonei being the chop today?

At this point, no I don’t. I can poke holes in accusations rendered at Sloonei, but that doesn’t make him a civilian. I should be more secure about him than I am by now.

Does that mean you think he's suspicious because you're not secure about him or is that more a statement about Sloonei not doing enough for you to get a solid read on him?

More the latter.

As I sit back and roast on the game, I trend toward an Alison vote again. I respect her efforts to talk with me, and I don't think her posts are terrible or anything -- but my holistic vision of the game leads me to her in a mafia chair. I am a bit piqued recently too by what I perceive as awkward challenges she has given me, like it's almost competitive. If you're going to get me chopped you're going to have to do better than that. That doesn't strike me as the right mindset.

I definitely have been pinged by what I perceive as a lack of quality in her cases. As town she made a whole lot of sense and I can see her logical chains but here she makes statements like "Sloonei is making stuff up" without a clear process as to how she got there (she did explain it but I don't find it convincing). Her points against me seem shallow but I'm obviously biased, they also feel a bit like things she's doing imo. She finds it sus that my early reads are too confident yet makes very confident early reads herself. She doesn't like that I'm scumreading her for suspecting me yet suspects me in part because I was scumreading her. She also doesn't change her reads often in light of new evidence and has the same suspects she did early to mid D1 (me and Sloonei).

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Blind Interactions



For those who don't already know, green blocks reflect pairings that I don't think look likely to be mafia teammates. Yellow blocks refer to pairings that I think could be; I have no good reason to say otherwise. Orange refers to a pairing that I found particularly compatible.

I only ended up with one orange, so if you want to be conservative you can just call it yellow and end up with a binary yes/no chart.

As usual I don't have dedicated notes for all of this. I did poke at a tiny bit as I went through it in my previous handful of posts. I don't want to spam the game with mass analysis. If you have questions about any pairing here, ask me. I will try to answer if I have time. I might not. If I can't answer, then dig into the interaction for yourself and see how you feel.

A few notes:

~ Nanook being an ocean of yellow is unsurprising. He has the fewest posts and hasn't done a whole lot in the way of pushing any kind of game solving. So he's compatible with everyone.

~ Long Con and Martin are the only orange in a way that kind of recalls Jack/Michelle in the Finale (Martin in particular made a few mentions of LC that struck me as a bit forced or unnecessary. I realize Jack/Michelle was wrong, but whatever -- it's orange anyway. View it for yourselves and come to your own conclusions.

~ I struggle to clearly remove a POE name or suspect from the pool with this chart as I often want to. The closest I can come is Thunal, who would be compatible per my judgments only with Nanook, SPF, and nutella (which would be a good look overall for Thunal if at least two of those three are town).

~ Most importantly about Thunal, I think he doesn't fit with Sloonei. This should have important implications for Alison's view of the game, and I look forward to hearing what she thinks about that.

~ Sloonei fits precisely with the POE and naught else. So the case against Sloonei can be described as "easy game versus not easy game". Your mileage may vary given what you think of that. Alison is in a very similar position, which makes the emerging "dichotomy" between those two especially important. They don't have to be a dichotomy, but I am kind of feeling that way.

~ For some reason I couldn't find it within myself to clear nutella on numerous interactions even when she had a lot to say about people. I don't know what to make of that. I might not make anything of it. She covers a lot of ground in her solving style a la the rabbits of the world. The same can be said to a lesser degree for Hally.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Most important takeaways for me: Thunal might be the best look if anyone is, and her relationship with Sloonei and Alison might be good starting points from which a coherent view of the game can be constructed.

Having me all yellow is super lazy dude

[Alison]

Hey all. I'm around but I see there's been like 10 notifications addressed to me and I'm not sure I have the time to address all of 'em. I'll be working my way through 'em slowly over the course of the day. I glanced at JJJ's POE chart - I'm a little curious why LC/Martin has high scum compatibility, and I'm surprised to see that I don't have orange compatibility with either tutuu or Martin given that I hard defended them.

Also Thunal is lying about what I said again. I'll quickly address that because it's easy.

She finds it sus that my early reads are too confident yet makes very confident early reads herself. She doesn't like that I'm scumreading her for suspecting me yet suspects me in part because I was scumreading her.

This is not true. I have repeatedly stated that I was not scumreading you for making confident reads; I was scumreading you for making shallow reads based on flimsy evidence. Every read of mine is backed by strong evidence; yours isn't, because you're making it up. I am also not scumreading you for scumreading me. I originally started scumreading you because you had a townread on me that I didn't like.

She also doesn't change her reads often in light of new evidence and has the same suspects she did early to mid D1 (me and Sloonei).

What has come to light over the course of the game that should make me change my list of suspects?

[Long Con]

Having me all yellow is super lazy dude

Yeah... at the very least, three posts could be said to have wolf equity with Sloonei:

hally/sloonei actually always contains at least 1 wolf here

Both lock town now

Hello I’m way behind

Have we decided to give me the gun yet, and if not have we decided to give it to sloonei yet?

who's mafia?

You know I hate this question literally every time someone replies to a post of mine asking a question with “who’s mafia” instead of just answering my question

So from now on I’m going to reply to it with some version of “you motherfucka” k thx

Tutu/Martin/[one of jay/sloonei possibly both depends on how their reads on each other develop]/...maybe nutes maybe SPF—think they’re not both scum, not sure if they’re both town. Thunal seems townie but I haven’t done research so idk.

That is a lot of names, nooky.

Town cores are hard sometimes

Not strong I know. Other than these, I do see what JJJ means with all the yellow. Your interactions are lean, there's not much there to connect with other players.

[Thunal33]

Hey all. I'm around but I see there's been like 10 notifications addressed to me and I'm not sure I have the time to address all of 'em. I'll be working my way through 'em slowly over the course of the day. I glanced at JJJ's POE chart - I'm a little curious why LC/Martin has high scum compatibility, and I'm surprised to see that I don't have orange compatibility with either tutuu or Martin given that I hard defended them.

Also Thunal is lying about what I said again. I'll quickly address that because it's easy.

She finds it sus that my early reads are too confident yet makes very confident early reads herself. She doesn't like that I'm scumreading her for suspecting me yet suspects me in part because I was scumreading her.

This is not true. I have repeatedly stated that I was not scumreading you for making confident reads; I was scumreading you for making shallow reads based on flimsy evidence. Every read of mine is backed by strong evidence; yours isn't, because you're making it up. I am also not scumreading you for scumreading me. I originally started scumreading you because you had a townread on me that I didn't like.

She also doesn't change her reads often in light of new evidence and has the same suspects she did early to mid D1 (me and Sloonei).

What has come to light over the course of the game that should make me change my list of suspects?

I realized that Sloonei actually doesn't look that bad. He's not doing a whole lot but I think his takes on you and Carotte are more likely to come from town than from mafia - because I agree with his takes on you and because his take on Carotte would be strategically bad if he was mafia. He also was suspected throughout the entire game without much change and I get the feeling (as I've elaborated on before) that wolves were pushing the D1 consensus. As for me, I know you're wrong and I feel like I've been making my towniness clear and trying hard to solve during this game.

Okay, what's the strong evidence that Sloonei was making up his read on Nutella? I know that you're still scumreading me based on my early reads which certainly isn't strong evidence. It's just my playstyle to make reads early on without strong evidence because a lot of my D1 reads are intuition based or based on "small" tells. Surely you've seen townies with similar playstyles. What do you think of my posts this phase?

[Hally]

page 24

I think the most egregious thing with Alison is what I just reviewed in her handling of Sloonei. I would appreciate other views on that, as I acknowledge that I have had Alison in the crosshairs all game long and I am more susceptible to confirmation bias than most.

i gave my take in my last catch up post. essentially, i think alison’s characterization isn’t entirely accurate but i think there is truth in it

Sloonei has no original reads and I dislike that. I don't think he's ever expressed an issue with me or engaged with me meaningfully and now I'm his top scum read. Feels opportunistic.

Sloonei's ISO

Open this and CTRL+F "Alison".

This assertion is just not true. I want to eliminate Alison.

I did. I'm not seeing it. Quote the post where he meaningfully engages with me.

317 -- has a lot to say about you, some of it positive
549 -- directly addresses you
706 -- continues to consider the matter of Alison out loud
769 and 782 -- directly addresses you twice, both with questions for you to engage with
795 -- general query about you
815 -- voices uncertain concern
826 -- makes his concern more specific, quoting numerous Alison posts
827 and 832 -- directly engages two other people about you
840 -- votes for you among two others and makes suspicion clear

You said he didn't engage with you "meaningfully". That looks like hot bullshit to me.

You said he didn't ever express an issue with you. That is objectively false.

Also if you want to get me eliminated, you're going to have to do better than vaguely asserting that my posts are "fake" or full of "bravado" and then saying that you don't believe my case on Thunal for no reason despite not being able to actually rebut any of my arguments.

There you go. This post also serves little purpose beyond discrediting me in a way that does not fairly reflect my treatment of you.

That is not meaningful engagement. My claim was not "Sloonei has not spoken the word Alison out loud in this game". Yes, I was wrong and misremembered that Sloonei hadn't expressed suspicions of me before today. But I think the main thrust of my point - which was that Sloonei has only spoken about me in brief, unmeaningful spurts - remains.

#317 is a reasonable set of takes about me - I give it to you. It's a positive set of takes, though, so his suspicion must come from somewhere else. But where?

#549 is a straightforward, NAI factual response to something I said, pointing out something I may have missed in my reading. #706 is not meaningful engagement - it's a low-commitment "yeah I sort of liked it" post.

#769 and #782 are direct questions to me, yes - but... where is the result? Does his read progress on me because of the way I answered those questions? As far as I can tell, not at all. And this is the issue I've had. It's not that he's never brought me up - Sloonei's a good enough player to not just slank his way through the game or completely ignore me. My issue is that the progression is not there. He leaps from a relatively unconcerned viewpoint about me D1

#795, #827 and #832 don't count, it's a question about other people's reads on me. It's more of a way to engage with other people (about their read on me) than to engage with me.

#815 is, and I quote, "I have grown suddenly wary of Alison in the last few minutes. It might just be indigestion." I don't know what you consider meaningful engagement, but an unsupported gut read at EOD posted after I said I am going to bed doesn't count. Frankly, I think this post supports my accusation of opportunism.

#840 is basically a longwinded way of saying "Alison is in my POE". I don't consider that to be meaningful engagement, it's just a restatement of his position. What I'm interested in is how he got to that position.

-

I realize that you may feel tempted to get drawn into a back and forth with me about what does/doesn't count as "meaningful engagement". I think that is unproductive. What I aim to do here is to show you my point of view, and to show you what I meant when I said there was no meaningful engagement. These are the posts you yourself quoted - the posts directly addressed to me tend to be relatively neutral, and many of the posts addressed to others about me are inquiring about their read, not his.

The point here is this: ask yourself if the way Sloonei has treated me has been like someone trying to sort a player whose alignment they don't know. Or even a player who's leading the charge against someone they're very sure is scum. Because I don't think that progression points there; the posts I quoted look more like neutral probing -> doubts and discrediting at a convenient time, progressing straight to "Alison is my top suspect" D2. He came out with those doubts on me at a time where other people were suspecting me, and he said I was his top suspect at a time where he was the other person in contention for the exe today.

I don't think Sloonei has made a serious attempt to sort me. He's been trying to push narratives about me, but I don't think he's trying to sort me. That, coupled with the stance he's taken on me D2, feels opportunistic and scummy. That's what I don't like about him.

There you go. This post also serves little purpose beyond discrediting me in a way that does not fairly reflect my treatment of you.

The intention of the post was to discredit your push on me. I am discrediting your push on me because it is wrong.

However, I suggest to you that it does fairly reflect your treatment of me. Here are your stated concerns about me.

1) Early reads are full of "bravado". What does this even mean? Does it mean I'm too confident based on very little information? Others have said that was well within my town range. You've also said it was "inappropriate for the situation at hand". Can you explain how? I think (and have said in public on Discord, even) that early game is entirely the right place for forceful, confident reads.

2) You've said that my reads are "not aligned with the kind of language I expect to see Alison use". I flat out doubt that you know my town game well enough to be able to make reads on me based on word choice. If you wish to contest this, feel free to explain what words you think I'd use to express my reads and why, and I'll show you a counterexample of me not following that model as town. If you have beef based on this, bring it to me and I'll cut it up for you.

3) "Since then she has made cases against Thunal and Hally, and those cases rang hollow to me. They just weren't compelling. I struggle to buy it." This is exactly what I mean when I say that you are dismissing my cases on those players for no reason. You aren't offering a counterargument to those cases - you're just saying "Alison is wrong beacuse she's wrong/because I feel she's wrong" and moving to a scumread on me based of that. Do you expect all of town Alison's cases to be compelling to you or what?

I'm not using this to say you're scum. I can believe that this kind of read is within your town range, and I put you as a townlean on my last list. Many townies have vague or undeveloped reads. But wanting to eliminate me based on a vague/unclear suspicion isn't something that'll fly by me. If you want to accuse me and get everyone to vote me because you think I'm the mafia, you better have stronger reasoning backing you up than what you've shown.

idk if i’m being too easy here but i? honestly really like both these posts from alison. i think the points she raises re: sloonei are legitimate

why did i town read martin? why did i stop doing that? is martin town? does anyone feel strongly about him any which way?

Yes, I feel strongly that Martin is town.

why?

As explained before - Martin's posts resonate with me strongly. You can think of it as a kind of mindmeld if you like - we share a lot of the same thought processes and ways of thinking about the game. I don't think this is easy to fake - in fact I think someone who has a playstyle so similar to mind is probably easier to read for me. I drew a comparison with protocultures here, who was someone who also had a similar playstyle and who I found very easy to read/pocket because I understood where he was coming from.

In addition to my mindmeld with Martin, I think he's shown thoughtfulness in his posts. I struggle to find any evidence of an agenda when I read what he's posting. (If he's posting to push a narrative, I can't tell what that narrative is.) He also feels like a very disconnected and lonely player, striving on his own to develop his own ideas. That "lonely" feeling is I think a towntell, because mafia have buddies and play as though they have buddies (even if they might try to hide it).

can you point to specific posts from martin where you’ve felt you mindmelded with him?

page 20

I am exaggerating a bit when I say sloonei was lolcatting, but he really did not post any serious content and seemed completely flippant about the night vote. He really felt detached in the way a deflated scum would.

Why would he be deflated? Town was yeeted.

Because he knew carotte's flip would cement him as the next priority suspect? I feel like that's pretty obvious

If he knew that all along why did he push for Carotte's elim? Why would scum!Sloonei be content with a status quo that heavily implicates him as scum after the Carotte town flip he knew would happen? And I just kind of feel like Sloonei would take more pride in his scum game than this and make more effort to get the suspicion off of him if he's scum, while as town he might want to address it but let his towniness speak for himself (projecting what I would do onto Sloonei since I don't know him).

did sloonei push for carotte’s elimination? because that’s not my recollection. my sense of it was that he didn’t care to take a stance on her one way or another, and i do think that looks bad. like, if sloonei is mafia, why shouldn’t he be content with the consensus D1 or at least try hard to affect it? we were killing a villager

Definitely at least 1 maf in hally-alison-thun imo. Alison and thunal both sussed hally for putting themselves in the grassland, hally proactively sussed someone for putting them in the grassland as wifom. So it would be surprising if all 3 are town, and mafia would put hally there without seemingly taking advantage of it

Just so I am clear: are you suggesting that Hally was sent to the grasslands as some sort of WIFOM ploy by the mafia team, either Hally being mafia and doing it intentionally, or Hally being town sent to grasslands so that mafia could push that exact theory?

....is this not readily apparent? why else would i be sent if not for one of these reasons? or like, what’s your theory?

i didnt get to point this out yesterday but i think it's hilarious that below carotte's cute avatar of a wholesome bunny, her automated username role was: "DRUG DEALER"

lmao
————
i don’t like sloonei’s posting on this page. it seems like a lot of aimless questions. i’m used to sloonei’s questioning feeling more purposeful/pointed than this

I was mistaken about Sloonei's position on Carotte and I addressed that in a later post. A lot of people were suspecting Sloonei but thinking him and Carotte weren't W/W so Sloonei likely knew he would be a major suspect regardless of his alignment.

i feel like this is just a twtbaw argument though. like isn’t it just saying “sloonei wouldnt do this scummy thing if he was scum”?

Yes it kind of is but I feel like Sloonei as a wolf would come up with something more inspiring than "well I'll just go along with the consensus." The fact that it is so level 1 suspicious and Sloonei likely knew that actually makes it unlikely for wolf!Sloonei to do. It's the same reason I have reservations on Alison being scum, along with my theory that scum didn't feel the need to change the threadstate yesterday or move the consensus PoE. Also even though I haven't caught up I looked at the last page and it appears that JJJ isn't considering Sloonei as a suspect anymore.

i’m not following you here. you think scum wouldn’t have wanted to change the consensus last day but yet you tr sloonei because he followed the consensus and scum wouldn’t do that. like, how can it be both that scum would do X AND also that it’s twtbaw to do X so they would avoid doing it? this argument just doesn’t move me

Also even though I haven't caught up I looked at the last page and it appears that JJJ isn't considering Sloonei as a suspect anymore.

To be clear I am not completely out of Sloonei Purgatory. He needs to shine today.

i kinda dislike how you don’t have a concrete read on sloonei yet but idk if that’s a “you” problem or more of a “him” problem

I dislike the general thread consensus that LC is suspicious but not actually pushing him or wanting to vote him. It feels like my experience a couple games ago on PerC in a cult game where the cult leader was LHF that was in the PoE the entire game, yet there was a resistance coming from cult that made them imchoppable (their wagons kept disappearing and people often had them as their second or third suspect rather than first) and cult won. It also reminds me of a scum game of mine back in March on MU where I was similarly in the PoE the entire game and got wagoned 3 days in a row yet still survived and won.

tbf lc is... always kind of in the poe because he tends to slank like this. it’s nothing new. that’s why people are prioritizing sorting others

Spoiler: show

we're back to sloonjay w/w paranoia world pals

Spoiler: show

maybe

JaggedJimmyJay do you object to Sloonei being the chop today?

At this point, no I don’t. I can poke holes in accusations rendered at Sloonei, but that doesn’t make him a civilian. I should be more secure about him than I am by now.

why do you keep poking holes in people’s accusations of him if you don’t even tr him? i know we had this back and forth already D1 when you defended him but i feel like your exchange with alison is the same kind of thing. you keep saying you don’t tr him yet you seem to like batting away accusations thrown at him. it’s just... kinda weird. like, you clearly have your own reservations with sloonei, so why does such a significant portion of what you talk about when it comes to him seem to be defending him rather than elaborating on your own concerns with him? you seem like you don’t actually want to suspect him

My predominant concern about Alison's Day 1 is that it feels kind of flat. She made her reads and stated them clearly, but felt a bit static and a bit uninspired, for lack of a better word. Take this post, which I previously noted as something I felt good about, or at least did not disagree with:

Spoiler: show

I think Sloonei's behavior absolutely has warranted a "I think he's making this up". That was the thought I (and a few others) had when reading his posts, so I don't know why it's inappropriate to write it down in text. The reason I said Martin has already pocketed me is because he plays in a way that I find pretty textbook and relatable, which makes it easier to vibe with his mindset and townread him (which I do).

I think Thunal is null. Carotte's point about Thunal is interesting and it makes me go up on her slightly. I still have her as a slight scum lean on the balance of probabilities, but it's a point in her credit. I have mixed feelings about JJJ.

The first bit is patting herself on the back for suspecting me. I initially agreed with her take that it was not unfair to push her particular suspicion on me. Reading this post in more context, however, it reads a bit more defensively: she's not evaluating the quality of the read itself in response to the sudden turn away from the Sloonei wagon, she's just reassuring herself/the thread that she was justified to be suspicious of me in the first place.
The bottom paragraph also contains a lot of words but says very little. I can easily read it as a mafioso who wants to leave plenty of options available to herself.

Spoiler: show

I actually am not a huge fan of how the response from both JJJ and Sloonei to the theory of a JJJ/Sloonei wolf game has been "I'm tired of people always theorizing about JJJ/Sloonei wolf teams". If you think about it, that is actually an AtE defense (albeit a more polite and subtle kind), since it doesn't actually do anything to rebut the theory that they're wolfing together.

This post also does not sit well with me, but it could just be because I have a personal distaste for "this is AtE and AtE = bad" arguments. Emotion is a thing, it happens in games, and not every slight blip of emotional response is an "appeal to emotion." It's just... emotion.
But that's not what I dislike about this post. What I dislike is that Alison is using a fairly dubious argument to toss blanket shade on both Jay and I. The badness of "appeal to emotion" is what exactly? Also, what was the argument that we "were/are wolfing together?" Maybe it's just fatigue with that point in particular, but usually it boils down to: one of us says something generally favorable about the other on Day 1 -> JJJ/Sloonei are both mafia! Was is any different here? Does that need to be rebutted in a serious way?

Spoiler: show

I'm caught up. Okay with the idea of giving Sloonei space to breathe. If he doesn't produce results I'm going to end up voting him anyway and I think the other people who currently suspect him will as well.

I think Thunal is very likely a wolf. They were making super surface-level reads and were never paranoid that the reads were being manipulated. eg. "Alison is town because she's confident", "Carotte is town because she re-evaluated on me". We all scumread Sloonei because he gave a baseless townread on nutella for something that was very likely NAI. Same logic applies here: I think town Thunal would hesitate a bit more and wonder if Alison/Carotte was faking these things to pocket her. Doubly so if she feels intimidated by the playerlist.

Scum Vote: Thunal

Another post that looks too much like appeasing the status quo. This wasn't supposed to be an argument based on Alison's treatment of me, but I think her Sloonei posts reflect the general trend: She suspects me when others do and backs off when the wagon dissolves. I have no direct comment on the pivot to Thunal here. Indirectly, I'll note that Alison ended up on Carot yesterday despite having very little to say about her. Here's what looks to be all of the posts in which Alison expressed a read on Carot on Day 1:

Spoiler: show

I want to gut scumread Carotte for saying hi and dipping. Hard to verbalize this one but I feel she'd be slightly more engaged with the AI stuff (reads flying around etc.) as town.

I'm not super bothered by the lack of pertinence in Carotte's responses. Townies will have different lines of investigation to pursue and I have often completely ignored the "big debate" in a thread or addressed it briefly and dismissively because I think it's a pointless distraction.

I am far more concerned with the lack of engagement in the sense that Carotte has shown less interest in sorting people than I expect her to. Her take on Thunal made me go up on her a little because it's better than "say hi and dip", but as mentioned earlier, I still scumlean her overall because she hasn't done anything with Sloonei/the people scumreading Sloonei, or given takes on anyone but Thunal.

@Hally you asked me about the relationship between Carotte and Alison. If I were doing a blind interaction chart that would be a block I'd be tempted to color orange. They've both said a decent amount about one another without arriving at conclusions I would call clear or inspiring -- lots of room to land on town reads or mafia reads both ways depending upon the momentum of the game.

Take that with a grain of salt, because I don't believe pre-flip associations are super wise if not done comprehensively for everyone, or at least everyone within a POE pool.

alright, thanks. i agree for what it’s worth. alison’s response to me just now re: carotte seemed... not good, like alison wants to distance but not commit to a bus yet. it seems like she’s trying to see if she can get someone other than carotte killed while still “scum reading” carotte. it was too hedgey and trying to have it both ways. like, if i’m being honest, i... really didn’t like it at all

Not much I can say in response to this one. That's just how I feel about Carotte. If you think it's hedgy then okay, I'll just have to show you that you're wrong with the rest of my play.

@Alison i’d like you to talk about non-thunal players, if possible. i think you’ve made your position on her clear enough

can you do a quick sorting of everyone? just so i can see generally where your head is

Town:
tutuu
Hally
SPF
Martin
nova

Townlean:
nutella
LC
nanook

Mixed but trending up:
JJJ

POE:
Carotte
Sloonei
Thunal

I need to sleep. I don't think Carotte dismissing the concerns around Sloonei = not buddies. I can see worlds where Carotte is annoyed that people are suspecting her scum buddy for the wrong reasons and just gives a dismissive "come on guys this is really not a big deal" to brush it off.

I think I've ruled out Sloonei as my vote for today because JJJ is backing him up and he's been doing some decent solving lately. I don't think Sloonei can solo push a Thunal wagon to completion in 4 hours with both nutella and Hally strongly against, so I'd rather [VOTE: Carotte] aubergine.

I'm heading to bed now.

The first two are very early in, and do not address any of the content of Carot's posts, but point instead to Carot's level of engagement. I see no evidence of development on this read throughout the day. I see little to no evidence that Alison attempted to engage with Carot. This is her most static read, and it's on the player we would eventually chop, and (as far as I can tell) the only player Alison voted for other than herself (was the Day 1 poll saved anywhere?). This is troubling. I prodded Alison about her Carot vote when she returned to the thread Day 2 and she repeated the same line she gave on Day 1:

What was the best reason to suspect carot yesterday?

Unimpressive entrance followed by immediately going afk the moment pressure was applied.

Consistent, but deeply uninspiring.

I can easily see these posts coming from mafia.

i need to sit with this and see how i feel. i guess my immediate reaction is that what you say here makes logical sense? but it doesn’t like... resonate with me in a way that makes me go “alison is mafia”

[Alison]

Okay, what's the strong evidence that Sloonei was making up his read on Nutella?

The strong evidence that Sloonei was making up his read on nutella is that he knows better than to scumread nutella for something that is extremely obviously NAI. Correcting a factual error, or someone else misreading a post, is NAI. The probability of Sloonei not knowing this is far lower than the probability of Sloonei being scum. Therefore, on the balance of probabilities, the read was made up.

I know that you're still scumreading me based on my early reads which certainly isn't strong evidence.

At this point it's progressed way past that. I'm scumreading you for the way you handled my case on you. The way you flipped your read on me opportunistically then gave bad responses to my challenges. Your posts this phase have made you seemed slightly townier, but not enough to compensate for the awfulness that was your D1 play.

[Thunal33]

Hey all. I'm around but I see there's been like 10 notifications addressed to me and I'm not sure I have the time to address all of 'em. I'll be working my way through 'em slowly over the course of the day. I glanced at JJJ's POE chart - I'm a little curious why LC/Martin has high scum compatibility, and I'm surprised to see that I don't have orange compatibility with either tutuu or Martin given that I hard defended them.

Also Thunal is lying about what I said again. I'll quickly address that because it's easy.

She finds it sus that my early reads are too confident yet makes very confident early reads herself. She doesn't like that I'm scumreading her for suspecting me yet suspects me in part because I was scumreading her.

This is not true. I have repeatedly stated that I was not scumreading you for making confident reads; I was scumreading you for making shallow reads based on flimsy evidence. Every read of mine is backed by strong evidence; yours isn't, because you're making it up. I am also not scumreading you for scumreading me. I originally started scumreading you because you had a townread on me that I didn't like.

She also doesn't change her reads often in light of new evidence and has the same suspects she did early to mid D1 (me and Sloonei).

What has come to light over the course of the game that should make me change my list of suspects?

Also, I noticed that you jumped to that I was lying about your reasons. I got your reasons for my early reads wrong since I found them confusing and not very sound. You mentioned that I was scumreading you at EoD1 and it felt like you were presenting it as a point against me. Even if you're town and genuinely scumread me there's no reason for you to assume that the misrepping was intentional. The fact that you did say I was lying rather than saying I was just wrong shows that you're finding anything you can to scumread me IMO which isn't a good look for you.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Having me all yellow is super lazy dude

Yeah... at the very least, three posts could be said to have wolf equity with Sloonei:

hally/sloonei actually always contains at least 1 wolf here

Both lock town now

Hello I’m way behind

Have we decided to give me the gun yet, and if not have we decided to give it to sloonei yet?

who's mafia?

You know I hate this question literally every time someone replies to a post of mine asking a question with “who’s mafia” instead of just answering my question

So from now on I’m going to reply to it with some version of “you motherfucka” k thx

Tutu/Martin/[one of jay/sloonei possibly both depends on how their reads on each other develop]/...maybe nutes maybe SPF—think they’re not both scum, not sure if they’re both town. Thunal seems townie but I haven’t done research so idk.

That is a lot of names, nooky.

Town cores are hard sometimes

Not strong I know. Other than these, I do see what JJJ means with all the yellow. Your interactions are lean, there's not much there to connect with other players.

I should be pretty clearly not teamed with Nutella at a bare minimum

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I should be pretty clearly not teamed with Nutella at a bare minimum

why

[Thunal33]

Okay, what's the strong evidence that Sloonei was making up his read on Nutella?

The strong evidence that Sloonei was making up his read on nutella is that he knows better than to scumread nutella for something that is extremely obviously NAI. Correcting a factual error, or someone else misreading a post, is NAI. The probability of Sloonei not knowing this is far lower than the probability of Sloonei being scum. Therefore, on the balance of probabilities, the read was made up.

I know that you're still scumreading me based on my early reads which certainly isn't strong evidence.

At this point it's progressed way past that. I'm scumreading you for the way you handled my case on you. The way you flipped your read on me opportunistically then gave bad responses to my challenges. Your posts this phase have made you seemed slightly townier, but not enough to compensate for the awfulness that was your D1 play.

The bolded seems a lot like you scumreading me for scumreading you.

nutella's response reminds me of the type of thing i will say when people misunderstand my (often deliberately) confusing words early in games.

nutella-or-sloonei says X.
Player asks nutella-or-sloonei about Y.
nutella-or-sloonei stresses Not Y, Only X.

I like it. It's a thing I do when I'm town. I see nutella do it and think town.

at tutuu

Sloonei townread Nutella?

[Alison]

The bolded seems a lot like you scumreading me for scumreading you.

Yeah, except I hard locked you as scum way before the point you flipped on me, so don't pretend like that was the source or motivation behind my scumread.

[Alison]

Also, I noticed that you jumped to that I was lying about your reasons. I got your reasons for my early reads wrong since I found them confusing and not very sound. You mentioned that I was scumreading you at EoD1 and it felt like you were presenting it as a point against me. Even if you're town and genuinely scumread me there's no reason for you to assume that the misrepping was intentional. The fact that you did say I was lying rather than saying I was just wrong shows that you're finding anything you can to scumread me IMO which isn't a good look for you.

"Gee, I've had an extremely strong scumread on Thunal, and now she's saying something that is factually wrong about my case on her in order to convince other people that my case is weak and that I am scum. I should just assume it's a 100% genuine mistake."

What a ludicrous line of thinking. If someone I strongly believe to be scum pushes a line of reasoning that is both wrong and favorable to scum, I'm going to assume it's on purpose, end of story.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

I should be pretty clearly not teamed with Nutella at a bare minimum

why

What do you mean why

When are our interactions ever what teammates look like

[Thunal33]

i’m not following you here. you think scum wouldn’t have wanted to change the consensus last day but yet you tr sloonei because he followed the consensus and scum wouldn’t do that. like, how can it be both that scum would do X AND also that it’s twtbaw to do X so they would avoid doing it? this argument just doesn’t move me

I was thinking that because Sloonei was the next person in the PoE. As the next person in the PoE scum!Sloonei and his scummates wouldn't be happy with the consensus. However, if Sloonei was town and scum knew they were heading towards a mislim on Carotte that set the groundwork for another mislim on Sloonei they would be quite happy with the consensus.

[Long Con]

JaggedJimmyJay do you object to Sloonei being the chop today?

At this point, no I don’t. I can poke holes in accusations rendered at Sloonei, but that doesn’t make him a civilian. I should be more secure about him than I am by now.

why do you keep poking holes in people’s accusations of him if you don’t even tr him? i know we had this back and forth already D1 when you defended him but i feel like your exchange with alison is the same kind of thing. you keep saying you don’t tr him yet you seem to like batting away accusations thrown at him. it’s just... kinda weird. like, you clearly have your own reservations with sloonei, so why does such a significant portion of what you talk about when it comes to him seem to be defending him rather than elaborating on your own concerns with him? you seem like you don’t actually want to suspect him

I know what that is, I just learned it: chainsawing!

[Long Con]

I should be pretty clearly not teamed with Nutella at a bare minimum

why

What do you mean why

When are our interactions ever what teammates look like

Which interactions were those?

[Alison]

I should be pretty clearly not teamed with Nutella at a bare minimum

why

What do you mean why

When are our interactions ever what teammates look like

It's not within nutella's scum range to fake the argument with nanook in Treehouse chat. If I am wrong on this you can keelhaul me postgame but I don't think I am. She just doesn't go that far as mafia.

(It's probably within nanook's scum range, he's willing to go a lot further than her. But it's not within nutella's, so they can't be wolf buddies.)

[Long Con]

Lol crosspost nutella

I don't get the commotion about Sloonei tbh, I believe that he believes in his read. :P

What makes you believe him?

I "get" his thought process, it doesn't seem like a stretch to me. I wouldn't townread him for that, but clearly don't share the ~general scumread he got for this read.

Carotenoid is mafia, take it to the bank. My scare quote tell has never failed me.

What's a scare quote tell?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

why do you keep poking holes in people’s accusations of him if you don’t even tr him? i know we had this back and forth already D1 when you defended him but i feel like your exchange with alison is the same kind of thing. you keep saying you don’t tr him yet you seem to like batting away accusations thrown at him. it’s just... kinda weird. like, you clearly have your own reservations with sloonei, so why does such a significant portion of what you talk about when it comes to him seem to be defending him rather than elaborating on your own concerns with him? you seem like you don’t actually want to suspect him

Poking holes can have at least two purposes: pro-Sloonei purposes, and anti-Sloonei accuser purposes. When I griped at Alison, my motivation was suspicion of her. Regardless of my struggle to clear Sloonei, if I feel Alison has made bogus assertions about him then my priority is to express that -- because it reflects badly on her. It's the sort of thing that is often wrongly turned into "chainsaw defense" accusations.

I literally think there is not a good case against Sloonei in this game. I think there have been numerous accusations hurled at him that are poorly-conceived. I thought Alison's was outright in bad faith, so I accused her of that. That's why I am so frustrated about it. Because "a lack of a good case" is not the same thing as "Sloonei is town", and I would vastly prefer to be able to just say the latter. The best I can give you is that his posts don't fill me with that good fuzzy feeling that I would expect them to fill me with. I realize that's vague, but sometimes that's just the way it is. They're not bad posts. They're just posts. It's kind of driving me nuts. I can't tell if he is lacking something that matters per his alignment, or if he is too fatigued of the game to be Sloonei.

I am accustomed to people being suspicious of Sloonei for bad reasons. He has dealt with that pretty much his entire Mafia "career", and usually I am the one tasked with setting the record straight. Most of the time though that is accompanied by Sloonei also doing things that I can concretely call "civilian Sloonei". In this game I am seeing the same kinds of suspicions that I think misunderstand (if I am generous) Sloonei, but I am not consistently seeing the congruent town in him. He hovers in this infuriating beige space and won't get out of it. It's very difficult for me to reconcile both sides of that -- thinking suspicions he has faced are bad suspicions while also failing to give a confident town read on my own.

[Long Con]

I should be pretty clearly not teamed with Nutella at a bare minimum

why

What do you mean why

When are our interactions ever what teammates look like

It's not within nutella's scum range to fake the argument with nanook in Treehouse chat. If I am wrong on this you can keelhaul me postgame but I don't think I am. She just doesn't go that far as mafia.

(It's probably within nanook's scum range, he's willing to go a lot further than her. But it's not within nutella's, so they can't be wolf buddies.)

OH right the treehouse. [mention]JaggedJimmyJay[/mention] did you include treehouse in your interaction analysis?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I should be pretty clearly not teamed with Nutella at a bare minimum

why

What do you mean why

When are our interactions ever what teammates look like

It's not within nutella's scum range to fake the argument with nanook in Treehouse chat. If I am wrong on this you can keelhaul me postgame but I don't think I am. She just doesn't go that far as mafia.

(It's probably within nanook's scum range, he's willing to go a lot further than her. But it's not within nutella's, so they can't be wolf buddies.)

Yeah that's fair. It didn't even occur to me to check the treehouse chat when I was doing my chart analysis (I have a process for that which has become almost automated game-to-game, and other games don't have off-thread QTs so shrug).

[MartinGG99]

I read through Alison's ISO, and I spent awhile thinking about it.

There are posts in there that I liked, but most of those have been early game. A lot of their posts though, I've been feeling neither too particularly towny or scummy.

However, I get the feeling that if Alison does have a playstyle or thought process very similar to me then if she's scum....all she's doing just making points and that's it.

Or something. I'm not entirely sure. I haven't read any of their scum games.

Either way, I wouldn't feel too comfortable going forward if it wasn't Alison that was executed next. I just need to know if they're town or mafia.

[VOTE: MartinGG99] aubergine (Because I'm not going to be the doc save lol, and even if town agreed with me getting it I would think you all are insane)

[VOTE: Alison] aubergine


I mean, think about it. If she's scum and her plan is to discredit (or scum-paint) as much people as possible (like Thunal, Sloonei, JJJ, etc at times) then she's done a decent or good job of it at times. Like trying to prevent some sort of town-core from forming.

And while I can completely understand if she's town, I think if she's scum it may be too dangerous to leave her alive beyond D2. As to whether she has spewed or anti-spewed if scum, I'm not sure but I think she would've made it difficult to know.

[MartinGG99]

I read through Alison's ISO, and I spent awhile thinking about it.

There are posts in there that I liked, but most of those have been early game. A lot of their posts though, I've been feeling neither too particularly towny or scummy.

However, I get the feeling that if Alison does have a playstyle or thought process very similar to me then if she's scum....all she's doing just making points and that's it.

Or something. I'm not entirely sure. I haven't read any of their scum games.

Either way, I wouldn't feel too comfortable going forward if it wasn't Alison that was executed next. I just need to know if they're town or mafia.

[VOTE: MartinGG99] aubergine (Because I'm not going to be the doc save lol, and even if town agreed with me getting it I would think you all are insane)

[VOTE: Alison] aubergine


I mean, think about it. If she's scum and her plan is to discredit (or scum-paint) as much people as possible (like Thunal, Sloonei, JJJ, etc at times) then she's done a decent or good job of it at times. Like trying to prevent some sort of town-core from forming.

And while I can completely understand if she's town, I think if she's scum it may be too dangerous to leave her alive beyond D2. As to whether she has spewed or anti-spewed if scum, I'm not sure but I think she would've made it difficult to know.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

I should be pretty clearly not teamed with Nutella at a bare minimum

why

What do you mean why

When are our interactions ever what teammates look like

It's not within nutella's scum range to fake the argument with nanook in Treehouse chat. If I am wrong on this you can keelhaul me postgame but I don't think I am. She just doesn't go that far as mafia.

(It's probably within nanook's scum range, he's willing to go a lot further than her. But it's not within nutella's, so they can't be wolf buddies.)

I basically agree with this, yeah

Posssibly in Nutella’s range in a m/t argument, it isn’t within her range to argue like that with a partner. Jay should know this imo.

[MartinGG99]

I hate the double post thing -_-

[Alison]

Just leaving this to note that I haven't forgotten about the previous posts addressed to me - I just got caught up in replying to the more recent ones. I'll be working through them as I have the time, and you'll get proper responses.

@JJJ - I will note here that a few people have come in and said they think my stance on Sloonei makes sense or is at least not totally bogus. Even if you disagree with them, you should at least consider that it's something that would be reasonable for town Alison to think.

linki: Martin's vote on me, while wrong, does strengthen the Martin = proto theory, since proto used to do the exact same thing.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Just leaving this to note that I haven't forgotten about the previous posts addressed to me - I just got caught up in replying to the more recent ones. I'll be working through them as I have the time, and you'll get proper responses.

@JJJ - I will note here that a few people have come in and said they think my stance on Sloonei makes sense or is at least not totally bogus. Even if you disagree with them, you should at least consider that it's something that would be reasonable for town Alison to think.

linki: Martin's vote on me, while wrong, does strengthen the Martin = proto theory, since proto used to do the exact same thing.

Do you believe there to be mafia teammate compatibility among these players:

Sloonei, Thunal, Hally

I ask because I interpret these to be your primary suspects. If not please indicate so.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I basically agree with this, yeah

Posssibly in Nutella’s range in a m/t argument, it isn’t within her range to argue like that with a partner. Jay should know this imo.

Quite frankly I droned out that argument as well as I could because it was so pointless and silly. But yes I agree with the premise.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

try again

I basically agree with this, yeah

Posssibly in Nutella’s range in a m/t argument, it isn’t within her range to argue like that with a partner. Jay should know this imo.

Quite frankly I droned out that argument as well as I could because it was so pointless and silly. But yes I agree with the premise.

[Thunal33]

I read through Alison's ISO, and I spent awhile thinking about it.

There are posts in there that I liked, but most of those have been early game. A lot of their posts though, I've been feeling neither too particularly towny or scummy.

However, I get the feeling that if Alison does have a playstyle or thought process very similar to me then if she's scum....all she's doing just making points and that's it.

Or something. I'm not entirely sure. I haven't read any of their scum games.

Either way, I wouldn't feel too comfortable going forward if it wasn't Alison that was executed next. I just need to know if they're town or mafia.

[VOTE: MartinGG99] aubergine (Because I'm not going to be the doc save lol, and even if town agreed with me getting it I would think you all are insane)

[VOTE: Alison] aubergine


I mean, think about it. If she's scum and her plan is to discredit (or scum-paint) as much people as possible (like Thunal, Sloonei, JJJ, etc at times) then she's done a decent or good job of it at times. Like trying to prevent some sort of town-core from forming.

And while I can completely understand if she's town, I think if she's scum it may be too dangerous to leave her alive beyond D2. As to whether she has spewed or anti-spewed if scum, I'm not sure but I think she would've made it difficult to know.

That makes some sense - I was struggling to reason what the benefit would be to scum!Alison to keep pushing me this much. She didn't push me anywhere near this much when I was wolf and she was SK. But wanting to keep me and Sloonei out of the towncore would be beneficial if she was scum (especially if Sloonei is town).

[Thunal33]

try again

I basically agree with this, yeah

Posssibly in Nutella’s range in a m/t argument, it isn’t within her range to argue like that with a partner. Jay should know this imo.

Quite frankly I droned out that argument as well as I could because it was so pointless and silly. But yes I agree with the premise.

I saw a clone of that argument on PerC and it was a mafia taking issue with a town's play which I found silly. I don't think that's mafia indicative for Nutella though and I'm pretty sure that mafia in the PerC game would have been equally annoyed if they were town.

[staypositivefriend]

Page 24

Some quotes may be trimmed.

When I consider universes where Alison is town, process of elimination leads me to some uninspired places, where I feel like I have to default to the most generic suspicions like Long Con and/or Nanook.

I hope in the future at some point you will realize I had vaguely the same feeling or realization.

Especially since I have to count myself as a miselimination in most people's PoE's. I just don't think there were many wolves in the D1 PoE's...they would all have to playing a bit similarly which goes against the idea that they would be distancing a bit. Especially since Carotenoid was town and one of my D1 tinfoils (Nova) was night-killed. It just looks all...."wrong" to me or something. This isn't to say there isn't a single wolf in the generic suspicions, just maybe at most 1 or 2.

Which is partially why I've been looking/tinfoiling outside of the current conflicts.

I feel the same way. I got a strong sense that wolves were happy with the D1 consensus since nobody tried to change it. Hally, tutuu, and maybe even Nutella might be deepwolves at this point (I mostly townread Nutella based on mindmelds/having the same takes but that's not strongly town indicative). This is also one of the reasons why I think Sloonei is more likely town than not at this point.

gth, who do you think is the most likely to be "deep scum" in the names that u listed in this post? i find it curious that youre throwing out names of universally tr players that you suspect could have a mafia, but i dont particularly see you exploring today to figure out which one of them could be scum

[staypositivefriend]

i'm admittedly feeling a little bit stressed because i most likely have to vote/out my final reads tonight (roughly about 12ish hours before the deadline), and i feel like i don't have the time to delve into as many players as i would like.

setting that aside, my top suspicions as of right now are sloonei/martin/alison, in that order, and i'm likely going to end up with a vote (or a ghost vote) on one of them

out of the three names i listed in that post, does anybody strongly object to any of them being voted?

[Alison]

Just leaving this to note that I haven't forgotten about the previous posts addressed to me - I just got caught up in replying to the more recent ones. I'll be working through them as I have the time, and you'll get proper responses.

@JJJ - I will note here that a few people have come in and said they think my stance on Sloonei makes sense or is at least not totally bogus. Even if you disagree with them, you should at least consider that it's something that would be reasonable for town Alison to think.

linki: Martin's vote on me, while wrong, does strengthen the Martin = proto theory, since proto used to do the exact same thing.

Do you believe there to be mafia teammate compatibility among these players:

Sloonei, Thunal, Hally

I ask because I interpret these to be your primary suspects. If not please indicate so.

Sloonei + Thunal compatibility is low. Not completely impossible, but low.

Hally has sort of fallen out of my suspect list today. A lot of my gripes with her turned out to have reasonable answers and she hasn't handled the JJJ/Alison interactions and Alison/Thunal interactions the way I expected she would if she was scum. I'm leaning towards more of a null or slight townlean on Hally now I think.

I don't know who's my third suspect. Probably LC by a slim margin since I have some reason to townread everyone else, but I'm not really feeling it on an LC exe. The only argument as to LC being scum is that he's widely suspected but nobody wants to go after him. But that happens in every game LC is in, and the one time I saw him scum, everyone went after him, so...

[Alison]

i'm admittedly feeling a little bit stressed because i most likely have to vote/out my final reads tonight (roughly about 12ish hours before the deadline), and i feel like i don't have the time to delve into as many players as i would like.

setting that aside, my top suspicions as of right now are sloonei/martin/alison, in that order, and i'm likely going to end up with a vote (or a ghost vote) on one of them

out of the three names i listed in that post, does anybody strongly object to any of them being voted?

I object to myself and Martin being voted. I'll dig up some of the posts I mindmelded with him on in a bit.

[MartinGG99]

I read through Alison's ISO, and I spent awhile thinking about it.

There are posts in there that I liked, but most of those have been early game. A lot of their posts though, I've been feeling neither too particularly towny or scummy.

However, I get the feeling that if Alison does have a playstyle or thought process very similar to me then if she's scum....all she's doing just making points and that's it.

Or something. I'm not entirely sure. I haven't read any of their scum games.

Either way, I wouldn't feel too comfortable going forward if it wasn't Alison that was executed next. I just need to know if they're town or mafia.

[VOTE: MartinGG99] aubergine (Because I'm not going to be the doc save lol, and even if town agreed with me getting it I would think you all are insane)

[VOTE: Alison] aubergine


I mean, think about it. If she's scum and her plan is to discredit (or scum-paint) as much people as possible (like Thunal, Sloonei, JJJ, etc at times) then she's done a decent or good job of it at times. Like trying to prevent some sort of town-core from forming.

And while I can completely understand if she's town, I think if she's scum it may be too dangerous to leave her alive beyond D2. As to whether she has spewed or anti-spewed if scum, I'm not sure but I think she would've made it difficult to know.

That makes some sense - I was struggling to reason what the benefit would be to scum!Alison to keep pushing me this much. She didn't push me anywhere near this much when I was wolf and she was SK. But wanting to keep me and Sloonei out of the towncore would be beneficial if she was scum (especially if Sloonei is town).

Well I did link my scum game early on, I believe. (Link)

I charged at one of the players trying to form (or had a good chance of being part of) a town core with a strong D2 case, and even managed to get them eliminated (Although that was kinda with the help of the player who I was targeting, who made some questionable posts and even got into a T/T or V/V thunder-dome).

I'm starting to realize What If? she meant it more seriously (than I originally interpreted) that I have a similar playstyle to theirs. Would my thought processes as town be somewhat conducive to my scum play style?

And her just "confirming" I am more and more like this "proto" person does nothing to assuage my concerns.

Taken to the extremist extent if she does have a similar playstyle to me, then I would say she has a decent chance of being scum right now.

[Thunal33]

Page 24

Some quotes may be trimmed.

When I consider universes where Alison is town, process of elimination leads me to some uninspired places, where I feel like I have to default to the most generic suspicions like Long Con and/or Nanook.

I hope in the future at some point you will realize I had vaguely the same feeling or realization.

Especially since I have to count myself as a miselimination in most people's PoE's. I just don't think there were many wolves in the D1 PoE's...they would all have to playing a bit similarly which goes against the idea that they would be distancing a bit. Especially since Carotenoid was town and one of my D1 tinfoils (Nova) was night-killed. It just looks all...."wrong" to me or something. This isn't to say there isn't a single wolf in the generic suspicions, just maybe at most 1 or 2.

Which is partially why I've been looking/tinfoiling outside of the current conflicts.

I feel the same way. I got a strong sense that wolves were happy with the D1 consensus since nobody tried to change it. Hally, tutuu, and maybe even Nutella might be deepwolves at this point (I mostly townread Nutella based on mindmelds/having the same takes but that's not strongly town indicative). This is also one of the reasons why I think Sloonei is more likely town than not at this point.

gth, who do you think is the most likely to be "deep scum" in the names that u listed in this post? i find it curious that youre throwing out names of universally tr players that you suspect could have a mafia, but i dont particularly see you exploring today to figure out which one of them could be scum

I feel like eliminating in the non universally TRed people is more strategic for today since it gives more info - and I don't think I could successfully case and push for an elim on any of the players I mentioned since my reasons to suspect them are admittedly thin. It's more "could be scum" and for Hally, it's "not out of their scum range." Hally is the most likely out of the three names I have since they have some small things in their play I found suspicious - their complete 180 on Carotte when they got to the grasslands, even though well explained, I could easily see scum motivation for. They're not posting the same way I'm used to seeing from them, meaning that they're not posting as much and they're not as pushy as I've seen them as either alignment. They're blending in which I find unusual for them but it could be because they have less time to play because of their job. Also they didn't pay attention to my deepwolf suspicion on them which I feel scum!Hally is more likely to do than town!Hally. Hally I have some reasons for. Tutuu and Nutella are more "I don't TR them as strongly as the other townread people."

[MartinGG99]

i'm admittedly feeling a little bit stressed because i most likely have to vote/out my final reads tonight (roughly about 12ish hours before the deadline), and i feel like i don't have the time to delve into as many players as i would like.

setting that aside, my top suspicions as of right now are sloonei/martin/alison, in that order, and i'm likely going to end up with a vote (or a ghost vote) on one of them

out of the three names i listed in that post, does anybody strongly object to any of them being voted?

I would very much prefer that Alison is eliminated before me.

Sloonei I feel is probably town, but if you feel that's they're scum right now then I suppose I can't convince you since I don't know them personally as a player. (That and I only have 6 games of experience)

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Sloonei + Thunal compatibility is low. Not completely impossible, but low.

Hally has sort of fallen out of my suspect list today. A lot of my gripes with her turned out to have reasonable answers and she hasn't handled the JJJ/Alison interactions and Alison/Thunal interactions the way I expected she would if she was scum. I'm leaning towards more of a null or slight townlean on Hally now I think.

I don't know who's my third suspect. Probably LC by a slim margin since I have some reason to townread everyone else, but I'm not really feeling it on an LC exe. The only argument as to LC being scum is that he's widely suspected but nobody wants to go after him. But that happens in every game LC is in, and the one time I saw him scum, everyone went after him, so...

This kind of gets at why I asked then. If Hally is out, and you're not really feeling it on Long Con, and Sloonei and Thunal are not compatible -- then from a holistic game theory perspective you have one true suspect right now --> Sloonei OR Thunal. Does this concern you at all?

[Hally]

page 25

@nutella what is your read on Alison right now?

That's a good question and I'm not sure I have a good answer. Like i said in the treehouse, I consistently both find some points against her to be compelling and find her posts to feel like they're written by town. Essentially she's in my poe but not my top priority suspect.

i totally agree

Coincidentally, I just caught up to this after SPF just asked me about my scum reads lol.

@MartinGG99 can you do an updated sorting/reads list please?

Honestly right now I'm still trying to process some players and my reads for them, especially since I'm catching up.

Its a bit confusing and hard to put it into words, especially since I've been trying a sort of new way of thinking or play where I'm relying a bit more on "gut" rather than methodical play.

That said, here's a screenshot from what is preety much most of my notes (aside from just pure memory):

Spoiler: show

If you say it looks a bit confusing, that's because it was sorta meant to be that way. I just re-used one of my old spreadsheets and kinda re-purposed it for taking notes. I didn't have much time on the weekend prior to the game starting to think of a better way of formatting it and my notes or thoughts.

However, what I can say is that at the moment that's where I am for the most part. Though once I re-eval everyone else I need to re-think about Tutuu.

i apologize but i cannot understand this at all. could i trouble you to type out a list?

distrustfall:

tutuu: although tutuu has a strong tone and a strong thread presence, she hasn't particularly outed any reads that have advanced the gamestate in a significant way

hally: hally's thread presence has diminished over the last day or so, and they had a slight inconsistency with their attitude toward voting on d1 that rubbed me the wrong way a little bit

long con: long con has not advanced the gamestate in any meaningful way, and his primary push on day one (carotte) ended up being town. i see very little evidence in long con's posts that he is genuinely trying to parse the game

nanook: nanook has been playing a passive & laid-back game, and none of the reads he have outed have been particularly unique or controversial. it's not super difficult to see nanookscum coasting along and just broadly agreeing with the consensus of everyone else

sloonei: sloonei has made very few posts that "feel" like townsloonei to me, and his lines of questioning have consistently left me feeling cold and unclear of where his thought process is going. i suppose there is a lack of fluidity to sloonei's game in general, and even as the pressure on him has wavered, i still do not feel that sloonei has come into his own element in this game

thunal: there is a lack of consistency to thunal's reads/gamesolving that could be scum indicative in theory - it's not impossible to see a world where thunal is frequently changing their mind on reads and pursuing new angles because they're struggling to find a viable push

nutella: nutella has had a low presence since the beginning of d2, and her reads more or less to be in the same position they were at the end of d1 - the lack of change in reads/thoughts does concern me a little bit that nutella is coasting off of the goodwill they established on d1

martin: martin has outed very few clear & direct townreads/scumreads, and the scumreads that he has outed have felt distinctly "off" to me, and like he's more interested in framing a narrative than he is in parsing the alignments of the people he is pushing on

alison: alison's tone has been markedly different from what i expect from townalison, and some of the tinfoils that she has produced (ie: thunal/hally) are so oblique that it's difficult for me to really follow her train of thought or understand her perspective as easily as i have in the past

jagged: jagged has struggled to integrate himself into the game, and i briefly considered that this is because he rolled mafia and wasn't sure what type of approach he should be taking - especially in light of the early pressure on him

i feel you on sloonei. it just feels like there’s something missing here. in champs i felt his thoughts were so fluid but simultaneously like i could understand every single step of his thought process and how one thing led to the next. his solving had such a clarity to it that was impossible not to tr and which resonated with me deeply, and i can’t say that i’ve felt that here. i don’t know if i can say he’s scummy in a level 1 sense but it’s pretty clear to me that he’s not fully “in his zone” so to speak, and if i try to think of how he’d feel as mafia, i imagine it would be like that

can you talk more about martin? specifically, can you cite examples of scum reads he’s given that feel off or dishonest to you? martin has been on a consistent trend down for me in my reads but i don’t really have a reason other than that i feel his presence is lacking and like i have no idea what his reads are or where he’s trying to take the game. but idk if that’s just because he’s new-ish. but anyway, i’m curious to hear you expand on your concerns there

Page 24

Some quotes may be trimmed.

When I consider universes where Alison is town, process of elimination leads me to some uninspired places, where I feel like I have to default to the most generic suspicions like Long Con and/or Nanook.

I hope in the future at some point you will realize I had vaguely the same feeling or realization.

Especially since I have to count myself as a miselimination in most people's PoE's. I just don't think there were many wolves in the D1 PoE's...they would all have to playing a bit similarly which goes against the idea that they would be distancing a bit. Especially since Carotenoid was town and one of my D1 tinfoils (Nova) was night-killed. It just looks all...."wrong" to me or something. This isn't to say there isn't a single wolf in the generic suspicions, just maybe at most 1 or 2.

Which is partially why I've been looking/tinfoiling outside of the current conflicts.

My readslist (unordered):

Can we just town-lock Thunal for posts like this and their other posts around this time?

I personally will.

My predominant concern about Alison's Day 1 is that it feels kind of flat. She made her reads and stated them clearly, but felt a bit static and a bit uninspired, for lack of a better word. Take this post, which I previously noted as something I felt good about, or at least did not disagree with:

Okay. Sloonei just used a "post icon" on this post.

Can I town-read him for it?

why would you tr him for using a post icon? you also said you wanted to tr him for posting three minutes after his last post. why is that towny? it kinda feels like you’re just making up frivolous reasons to tr him?

[Thunal33]

Page 24

Some quotes may be trimmed.

When I consider universes where Alison is town, process of elimination leads me to some uninspired places, where I feel like I have to default to the most generic suspicions like Long Con and/or Nanook.

I hope in the future at some point you will realize I had vaguely the same feeling or realization.

Especially since I have to count myself as a miselimination in most people's PoE's. I just don't think there were many wolves in the D1 PoE's...they would all have to playing a bit similarly which goes against the idea that they would be distancing a bit. Especially since Carotenoid was town and one of my D1 tinfoils (Nova) was night-killed. It just looks all...."wrong" to me or something. This isn't to say there isn't a single wolf in the generic suspicions, just maybe at most 1 or 2.

Which is partially why I've been looking/tinfoiling outside of the current conflicts.

I feel the same way. I got a strong sense that wolves were happy with the D1 consensus since nobody tried to change it. Hally, tutuu, and maybe even Nutella might be deepwolves at this point (I mostly townread Nutella based on mindmelds/having the same takes but that's not strongly town indicative). This is also one of the reasons why I think Sloonei is more likely town than not at this point.

gth, who do you think is the most likely to be "deep scum" in the names that u listed in this post? i find it curious that youre throwing out names of universally tr players that you suspect could have a mafia, but i dont particularly see you exploring today to figure out which one of them could be scum

I feel like eliminating in the non universally TRed people is more strategic for today since it gives more info - and I don't think I could successfully case and push for an elim on any of the players I mentioned since my reasons to suspect them are admittedly thin. It's more "could be scum" and for Hally, it's "not out of their scum range." Hally is the most likely out of the three names I have since they have some small things in their play I found suspicious - their complete 180 on Carotte when they got to the grasslands, even though well explained, I could easily see scum motivation for. They're not posting the same way I'm used to seeing from them, meaning that they're not posting as much and they're not as pushy as I've seen them as either alignment. They're blending in which I find unusual for them but it could be because they have less time to play because of their job. Also they didn't pay attention to my deepwolf suspicion on them which I feel scum!Hally is more likely to do than town!Hally. Hally I have some reasons for. Tutuu and Nutella are more "I don't TR them as strongly as the other townread people."

Although it's worth mentioning that I'm not really confident on Hally - I find both Alison and LC more suspicious than them at this point.

[Thunal33]

Just leaving this to note that I haven't forgotten about the previous posts addressed to me - I just got caught up in replying to the more recent ones. I'll be working through them as I have the time, and you'll get proper responses.

@JJJ - I will note here that a few people have come in and said they think my stance on Sloonei makes sense or is at least not totally bogus. Even if you disagree with them, you should at least consider that it's something that would be reasonable for town Alison to think.

linki: Martin's vote on me, while wrong, does strengthen the Martin = proto theory, since proto used to do the exact same thing.

Do you believe there to be mafia teammate compatibility among these players:

Sloonei, Thunal, Hally

I ask because I interpret these to be your primary suspects. If not please indicate so.

Sloonei + Thunal compatibility is low. Not completely impossible, but low.

Hally has sort of fallen out of my suspect list today. A lot of my gripes with her turned out to have reasonable answers and she hasn't handled the JJJ/Alison interactions and Alison/Thunal interactions the way I expected she would if she was scum. I'm leaning towards more of a null or slight townlean on Hally now I think.

I don't know who's my third suspect. Probably LC by a slim margin since I have some reason to townread everyone else, but I'm not really feeling it on an LC exe. The only argument as to LC being scum is that he's widely suspected but nobody wants to go after him. But that happens in every game LC is in, and the one time I saw him scum, everyone went after him, so...

This is giving me pings about a possible Alison/LC team.