Well if my argument make you hold off on scum-reading Alison for another day only to see me flip green then HOPEFULLY you can change your mind in a positive light about Alison.
Then maybe my elimination won't be entirely worthless if it does happen.
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Well if my argument make you hold off on scum-reading Alison for another day only to see me flip green then HOPEFULLY you can change your mind in a positive light about Alison.
That is something I've been planning to get into, as I said in the QT. If I presume Alison is town then I don't feel comfortable glancing at yours and Alison's conflict as just "TvT" without a closer look.Thunal33 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 7:35 pm But Alison already isn't trustworthy from my POV since she's been wrong in suspecting me, and you felt the same way that she was wrong in that suspicion. Do you think only Alison's read on you is trustworthy or do you think her reads in general are trustworthy?
But to answer your question, I may give Alison a leap of faith if I believe her arguments have decent validity and are plausibly true.MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:09 pm That is something I've been planning to get into, as I said in the QT. If I presume Alison is town then I don't feel comfortable glancing at yours and Alison's conflict as just "TvT" without a closer look.
I'm assuming you're on computer:
I'm assuming you're on computer:
Didn't sloonei catch fire early on for the Nutella interaction?
Actually I just don't understand this "posture" thing. Haven't heard or seen it used like this.MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:21 pm I mean, if the posture is obviously w/w then wouldn't it make sense for that posture to be different if there's a possible D1 bus towards the EoD?
i’m unsure what you’re saying hereMartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:21 pmDidn't sloonei catch fire early on for the Nutella interaction?
I mean, if the posture is obviously w/w then wouldn't it make sense for that posture to be different if there's a possible D1 bus towards the EoD?
posture = stanceMartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:22 pmActually I just don't understand this "posture" thing. Haven't heard or seen it used like this.MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:21 pm I mean, if the posture is obviously w/w then wouldn't it make sense for that posture to be different if there's a possible D1 bus towards the EoD?
Oh, okay. That makes a lot more sense. Thanks.Hally wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:28 pm im saying lc was dismissive of the early heat on sloonei in a way that seems odd if w/w. if lc/sloonei are w/w, lc probably wants to start distancing early when everyone is digging into sloonei. instead he calls sloonei town and shrugs at the pressure on him. only D2 does lc’s posture change to one that’s much less favorable to sloonei. it’s only then that he calls sloonei a suspect despite sloonei being near the top of everyone’s list for the entire game. if they were w/w, i thiiiiink lc would have adopted a harsher posture towards sloonei earlier along with everyone else, not lag so far behind. gth, his early treatment of sloonei and the progression of that looks more like w/v
Is this feasible? And if so, then maybe we can put an order of eliminations on each day from now on to help us ensure that there are no wolves in that group of 3 that we agree upon?MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:02 pm I wonder. If:
SPF + Hally + Thunal we all write off as being 100% confirmed town (not really confirmed but y'know)....would it be possible to ensure a town win?
There are 7 towns left and 2 Mafia/Scum/Wolves left
We have 2 miseliminations left before elo (eliminate correctly or lose), since 2 towns die each day+night phase presuming there is a miselimination.
Where do you think Martin scumslipped and why?Alison wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:03 pm Hally is actually right that the Thunal post about LC being widely suspected but not pushed goes quite a long way towards making her look good, since it was made before either JJJ or nutella's pushed on LC. I know I said I was gonna thunderdome her but that's made me doubt myself and I certainly can't get her exed today regardless so I'm going to not do that.
Martin is actually kinda trending down. I think if it was anyone else I'd have snap dayvigged him without hesitation for scumslipping like five times in a row, but I did have a very strong soul read on him so I want to at least explore the possibility that he's a flailing villager.
Martin, you are relying primarily on my defense on you in your own. What are you going to say now that my townread on you is waning?
Nothing. Your soul read was probably right. It never occured me to think about how much I was analyzing, and I think that's already helping me, even if its not really helping my position in the game.
For an example PoE:MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:04 pmIs this feasible? And if so, then maybe we can put an order of eliminations on each day from now on to help us ensure that there are no wolves in that group of 3 that we agree upon?MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:02 pm I wonder. If:
SPF + Hally + Thunal we all write off as being 100% confirmed town (not really confirmed but y'know)....would it be possible to ensure a town win?
There are 7 towns left and 2 Mafia/Scum/Wolves left
We have 2 miseliminations left before elo (eliminate correctly or lose), since 2 towns die each day+night phase presuming there is a miselimination.
Then there's this post from LC. Would LC react this way to a PoE with two wolves in it since it doesn't seem like he feels threatened by it? Or maybe it is a somewhat good PoE with two wolves and LC's shrugging it off so people won't pay attention to it.
Alison wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:03 pm Martin is actually kinda trending down. I think if it was anyone else I'd have snap dayvigged him without hesitation for scumslipping like five times in a row, but I did have a very strong soul read on him so I want to at least explore the possibility that he's a flailing villager.
If I were able to, I would have voted LC only at EoD. I said as much that I would prefer his wagon over yours since I was starting to change my read on you.Alison wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:06 pm FTR I thought Thunal had scum equity with LC earlier because she cooked up a Hally push right as LC's wagon started to seriously gain steam, and did end up voting me over LC (and then transitioning to a no vote, which is suspicion on a close wagon between town and scum). The comment about LC being widely suspected but not pushed goes pretty far in Thunal's defense though.
Speaking of which, the biggest evidence that I am town is that I was set up as the counterwagon to scum and it was a close call.
Wait, I forgot night kills go anywhere they want to. Nevermind on this. -_-MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:07 pmFor an example PoE:MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:04 pmIs this feasible? And if so, then maybe we can put an order of eliminations on each day from now on to help us ensure that there are no wolves in that group of 3 that we agree upon?MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:02 pm I wonder. If:
SPF + Hally + Thunal we all write off as being 100% confirmed town (not really confirmed but y'know)....would it be possible to ensure a town win?
There are 7 towns left and 2 Mafia/Scum/Wolves left
We have 2 miseliminations left before elo (eliminate correctly or lose), since 2 towns die each day+night phase presuming there is a miselimination.
Martin>Sloonei>Alison>Tutuu
All those eliminations in that order. Not that I think Alison is scum, but I wonder if SPF + Hally + Thunal are all town we can just mechanically win the game or something.
I don't know if its called mechanically winning the game, but yeah.
1) "if I am town..."Thunal33 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:04 pmWhere do you think Martin scumslipped and why?Alison wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:03 pm Hally is actually right that the Thunal post about LC being widely suspected but not pushed goes quite a long way towards making her look good, since it was made before either JJJ or nutella's pushed on LC. I know I said I was gonna thunderdome her but that's made me doubt myself and I certainly can't get her exed today regardless so I'm going to not do that.
Martin is actually kinda trending down. I think if it was anyone else I'd have snap dayvigged him without hesitation for scumslipping like five times in a row, but I did have a very strong soul read on him so I want to at least explore the possibility that he's a flailing villager.
Martin, you are relying primarily on my defense on you in your own. What are you going to say now that my townread on you is waning?
I'm reconsidering my read of you right now. If you are town I will see it and break out of my tunnel. If you are scum I will see that too. Continue with what you were doing.Thunal33 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:09 pmIf I were able to, I would have voted LC only at EoD. I said as much that I would prefer his wagon over yours since I was starting to change my read on you.Alison wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:06 pm FTR I thought Thunal had scum equity with LC earlier because she cooked up a Hally push right as LC's wagon started to seriously gain steam, and did end up voting me over LC (and then transitioning to a no vote, which is suspicion on a close wagon between town and scum). The comment about LC being widely suspected but not pushed goes pretty far in Thunal's defense though.
Speaking of which, the biggest evidence that I am town is that I was set up as the counterwagon to scum and it was a close call.
It may or may not surprise you, but I have Asperger's syndrome (which to who who don't know is fairly close and similar to Autism).Alison wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:16 pm What's stopping me is this: Martin is literally an alt of proto. Like I know I've said this before but the resemblance is actually seriously uncanny at this point. Like the part where he gets paranoid I'm scum pocketing him early, and then halfway through the game suddenly transitions to lock towning me because the game is too hard if I am scum, and then saying something awkward and flailing under pressure. All of this is the exact pattern/progression proto has done in like 2-3 town games in a row.
Long Con wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 11:59 pmSloonei is mafia. In the early game, as I said, I don't have a strong grasp on why people are Town reading or scum reading others, a lot of the time. As a result, my reads in the early game are often informed by players who excel in the early game. Sloonei is a name I've seen brought up probably more than anyone else as scum, to the point that it was said Carotte being town locks Sloonei as scum.
I would much rather give an answer after I have looked over his posts, which I can do when I'm done with Nutella.
LC's read on Sloonei feels distinctly fake and for quite bad reasons. He either doesn't have actual reasons to push Sloonei since he's town or he's pulling a Sheppard and making an intentionally bad justification for why Sloonei is scum so he doesn't have to push Sloonei to the degree where others could be convinced. Sloonei's response seems lackluster. He doesn't give an additional take on LC's alignment from it which is something I think a townie would do in that scenario. I also feel like Sloonei might be more vocal about why the reasoning is bad if they were W/T.Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:02 amSo this is literally just “Sloonei is mafia because everyone else says so”?Long Con wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 11:59 pmSloonei is mafia. In the early game, as I said, I don't have a strong grasp on why people are Town reading or scum reading others, a lot of the time. As a result, my reads in the early game are often informed by players who excel in the early game. Sloonei is a name I've seen brought up probably more than anyone else as scum, to the point that it was said Carotte being town locks Sloonei as scum.
I would much rather give an answer after I have looked over his posts, which I can do when I'm done with Nutella.
At first glance this seemed like a pretty neutral post, but Sloonei's "who should we send to the grasslands today?" question is ever so slightly scum indicative imo since he could be trying to get an inactive teammate to engage and get themselves out of the PoE. Again projecting onto myself, I know I've done that tactic quite a bit as scum with teammates.
I get the feeling Sloonei would vote like this (meaning, voting for anyone he suspects) regardless of alignment. The analysis I did (which is very limited since I just searched "Long Con" in Sloonei's ISO to find these posts) points slightly to Sloonei being scum. His push on LC seemed pretty weak and LC's push on Sloonei seemed pretty weak.Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 3:21 pm [VOTE: alsion] aubergine
[VOTE: long con] aubergine
[VOTE: martin] aubergine
I don't have a strong preference among these three. I am surprised at my own Martin vote. His response to me in the big wall post of his just now struck me oddly, so it's a bit of a kneejerk/GTH vote. Maybe that's unfair to him. Idk.
If this was a typical game with only one vote, I think I would be going for Alison, but I have been absent for most of the latter part of this phase and will be absent for the remainder of it. I trust you all to pick the right one out of these three.
Thunal is town.
Sorry to be such a dud this phase. I don't like it.
Thinking about it a little more, I think the second is more likely since I don't doubt that LC is a skilled player (nut said he's been playing for 13 years) and it's not exactly difficult to come up with fake reasons why Sloonei could be scum if Sloonei is in fact town.Thunal33 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:25 pm LC's read on Sloonei feels distinctly fake and for quite bad reasons. He either doesn't have actual reasons to push Sloonei since he's town or he's pulling a Sheppard and making an intentionally bad justification for why Sloonei is scum so he doesn't have to push Sloonei to the degree where others could be convinced. Sloonei's response seems lackluster. He doesn't give an additional take on LC's alignment from it which is something I think a townie would do in that scenario. I also feel like Sloonei might be more vocal about why the reasoning is bad if they were W/T.
hahahah i love this! i'm having a long/stressful day at work so you probably wont see the bulk of the analysis until tomorrow - i'll get through what i can tonight though! i also encourage everyone here to do interaction analysis if they feel up to it, it helps put the game into perspective quite a lot
Okay. Help me understand where you are in the game right now. You had suspects earlier, but I got the impression your reads there have drastically changed. How are you seeing the game right now? Do you think the exe against you is opportunistic or led by wrong townies?MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:05 pmNothing. Your soul read was probably right. It never occured me to think about how much I was analyzing, and I think that's already helping me, even if its not really helping my position in the game.
I'm feeling a bit more than just GTH that they may all be town....lately I've been thinking the last 2 scums are Sloonei + Tutuu if I can ascertain that SPF + Hally + Thunal + Nutella are 100% town.Alison wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:36 pmOkay. Help me understand where you are in the game right now. You had suspects earlier, but I got the impression your reads there have drastically changed. How are you seeing the game right now? Do you think the exe against you is opportunistic or led by wrong townies?MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:05 pmNothing. Your soul read was probably right. It never occured me to think about how much I was analyzing, and I think that's already helping me, even if its not really helping my position in the game.
I'm preety close to feeling that they all already are town and I've obviously committed to thinking you're 100% town.MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:39 pmI'm feeling a bit more than just GTH that they may all be town....lately I've been thinking the last 2 scums are Sloonei + Tutuu if I can ascertain that SPF + Hally + Thunal + Nutella are 100% town.Alison wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:36 pmOkay. Help me understand where you are in the game right now. You had suspects earlier, but I got the impression your reads there have drastically changed. How are you seeing the game right now? Do you think the exe against you is opportunistic or led by wrong townies?MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:05 pmNothing. Your soul read was probably right. It never occured me to think about how much I was analyzing, and I think that's already helping me, even if its not really helping my position in the game.
I've been working on that, looking at the posts. Right now I've been working on some sensible way to communicate why I think its a playstyle difference (or perception difference? idk "playstyle" is the closest word I have for it) that may persuade you and the rest of the town of it.
[mention]Sloonei[/mention] What do you mean by affected?
Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:34 pmwhat should we do today, Mr. Con?Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:32 pmI think it's going to be really hard to know, when she finally rands wolf, due to her having no wolf records on this site. I don't know what it looks like.NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:48 pm Eh I’m not sure I can read tutu this game
Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:54 pmWhich ISOs do you want to look at and why? if you're not already doing that.Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:40 pmI'm going to do some ISO looking today, and I'll get back to you on that, if that's ok.Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:34 pmwhat should we do today, Mr. Con?Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:32 pmI think it's going to be really hard to know, when she finally rands wolf, due to her having no wolf records on this site. I don't know what it looks like.NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:48 pm Eh I’m not sure I can read tutu this game
Gun to your head, what is my alignment?Thunal33 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:43 pm Reading my posts again I'm feeling like maybe you are town. "Content with the status quo" really does describe your post saying you would go along with voting Carotte since you didn't have an opinion on them. If you were scum trying to get yourself in a good position with the Carotte flip your reaction definitely wasn't the way to do that. Still really unsure on you, I feel like there's points going both ways. In my post about you pushing for Carotte's elim, I was sort of playing devil's advocate and I didn't townread you. I do feel like you would take more action or try something more than voting Carotte because you don't object if you were scum and you knew you would look bad off a Carotte town flip.
If I am town, and both the top wagons yesterday were mistaken, who should we be looking at today?
These posts are more of the same sort of questioning I pointed out earlier. Especially the "what should we do today, Mr. Con?" post feels like "Come on inactive teammate, post more things so people can townread you." Although Sloonei suspected LC, his tone towards LC isn't hostile or tunnely at all, it's friendly at times. Thanks Hally btw, I tried searching "LC" but it didn't allow it, but it's nice that searching LC and Long Con works.
im hesitant to give much weight to wagonomics arguments like this with such an unusual voting system in place. three people were voting both wagons and nobody could unvote. i don’t know how to analyze that kind of wagon formation, which is why i asked people not to vote more than one wagonAlison wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:06 pm FTR I thought Thunal had scum equity with LC earlier because she cooked up a Hally push right as LC's wagon started to seriously gain steam, and did end up voting me over LC (and then transitioning to a no vote, which is suspicion on a close wagon between town and scum). The comment about LC being widely suspected but not pushed goes pretty far in Thunal's defense though.
Speaking of which, the biggest evidence that I am town is that I was set up as the counterwagon to scum and it was a close call.
i asked myself the same thing. gth i would say it’s a decent look for sloonei but idk how much weight to give itThunal33 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:08 pmThen there's this post from LC. Would LC react this way to a PoE with two wolves in it since it doesn't seem like he feels threatened by it? Or maybe it is a somewhat good PoE with two wolves and LC's shrugging it off so people won't pay attention to it.
why have you decided im town? where did that come fromMartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:42 pmI'm preety close to feeling that they all already are town and I've obviously committed to thinking you're 100% town.MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:39 pmI'm feeling a bit more than just GTH that they may all be town....lately I've been thinking the last 2 scums are Sloonei + Tutuu if I can ascertain that SPF + Hally + Thunal + Nutella are 100% town.Alison wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:36 pmOkay. Help me understand where you are in the game right now. You had suspects earlier, but I got the impression your reads there have drastically changed. How are you seeing the game right now? Do you think the exe against you is opportunistic or led by wrong townies?MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:05 pmNothing. Your soul read was probably right. It never occured me to think about how much I was analyzing, and I think that's already helping me, even if its not really helping my position in the game.
I've also been looking into the Thunal33 vs. Alison thing earlier and I wanna say you're both town on the basis that it was an early playstyle difference that ended sour for both, of which may have influenced each other's future perceptions of each other's posts, which is why you guys were both almost at each other's throats.
fwiw i think it’s just a Sloonei Thing to ask people open-ended questions like that. he’s done it with others this game too pretty sure. if it was someone else i might agree that sort of questioning can look like trying to ease content out of a teammate but for sloonei it’s just... how he is pretty much. that doesn’t mean it can’t be w/w interaction but i don’t think the questions point to that specificallyThunal33 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:44 pm@Sloonei What do you mean by affected?
Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:34 pmwhat should we do today, Mr. Con?Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:32 pmI think it's going to be really hard to know, when she finally rands wolf, due to her having no wolf records on this site. I don't know what it looks like.NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:48 pm Eh I’m not sure I can read tutu this gameSloonei wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:54 pmWhich ISOs do you want to look at and why? if you're not already doing that.Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:40 pmI'm going to do some ISO looking today, and I'll get back to you on that, if that's ok.Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:34 pmwhat should we do today, Mr. Con?Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:32 pmI think it's going to be really hard to know, when she finally rands wolf, due to her having no wolf records on this site. I don't know what it looks like.NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:48 pm Eh I’m not sure I can read tutu this game
Gun to your head, what is my alignment?Thunal33 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:43 pm Reading my posts again I'm feeling like maybe you are town. "Content with the status quo" really does describe your post saying you would go along with voting Carotte since you didn't have an opinion on them. If you were scum trying to get yourself in a good position with the Carotte flip your reaction definitely wasn't the way to do that. Still really unsure on you, I feel like there's points going both ways. In my post about you pushing for Carotte's elim, I was sort of playing devil's advocate and I didn't townread you. I do feel like you would take more action or try something more than voting Carotte because you don't object if you were scum and you knew you would look bad off a Carotte town flip.
If I am town, and both the top wagons yesterday were mistaken, who should we be looking at today?These posts are more of the same sort of questioning I pointed out earlier. Especially the "what should we do today, Mr. Con?" post feels like "Come on inactive teammate, post more things so people can townread you." Although Sloonei suspected LC, his tone towards LC isn't hostile or tunnely at all, it's friendly at times. Thanks Hally btw, I tried searching "LC" but it didn't allow it, but it's nice that searching LC and Long Con works.
I looked through Sloonei's ISO and he asked similar questions to pretty much everyone in the game so I'm giving that point less weight now.Hally wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:52 pm
fwiw i think it’s just a Sloonei Thing to ask people open-ended questions like that. he’s done it with others this game too pretty sure. if it was someone else i might agree that sort of questioning can look like trying to ease content out of a teammate but for sloonei it’s just... how he is pretty much. that doesn’t mean it can’t be w/w interaction but i don’t think the questions point to that specifically
I mentioned it before, but you + SPF had a preety convincing mind meld in the middle of D2.
The playstyle difference argument explains why it's not necessarily W/V, but it doesn't explain why you're townclearing Thunal. What's the basis of that?MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:42 pmI'm preety close to feeling that they all already are town and I've obviously committed to thinking you're 100% town.MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:39 pmI'm feeling a bit more than just GTH that they may all be town....lately I've been thinking the last 2 scums are Sloonei + Tutuu if I can ascertain that SPF + Hally + Thunal + Nutella are 100% town.Alison wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:36 pmOkay. Help me understand where you are in the game right now. You had suspects earlier, but I got the impression your reads there have drastically changed. How are you seeing the game right now? Do you think the exe against you is opportunistic or led by wrong townies?MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:05 pmNothing. Your soul read was probably right. It never occured me to think about how much I was analyzing, and I think that's already helping me, even if its not really helping my position in the game.
I've also been looking into the Thunal33 vs. Alison thing earlier and I wanna say you're both town on the basis that it was an early playstyle difference that ended sour for both, of which may have influenced each other's future perceptions of each other's posts, which is why you guys were both almost at each other's throats.
oh right, i forgot about thatMartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:54 pmI mentioned it before, but you + SPF had a preety convincing mind meld in the middle of D2.
Unless you're both mafia I would really doubt either of you are scum.
Well, to be fair, I am conf biased a little bit from my early town-read on her.
when i decided nutella is my queen, she townreads u so that means i townread u. u townread hally so i townread hally
Well perhaps I'm using words that have a different set value or meaning to you than it does to me.