Grasslands [Game Thread]

#1951

Alison wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 2:41 am The POE is small enough that for Sloonei not to be scum would mean that there are two deepwolves. I think that's really hard for mafia to have in general, and I think if they did have two deepwolves they would have enough clout to convince everyone not to vote LC. Therefore there's only one deepwolf as most. Therefore Sloonei is scum.

If we accept this, I think the people with the highest deepwolf equity are nanook or tutuu. Both had strong D1s and D2s and then are doing less D3 after a scum exe. I don't think nanook has posted at all and tutuu has gone all-in on the "I am a sheep" thing. I still townread them individually and think this behavior is very well within their respective town ranges, but it's where I'd look first for a deepwolf.

Okay, this is (almost, not entirely) exactly my thoughts.

Also that I find

Nutella
SPF
Hally
Thunal
Alison

As more or less indisputably town (Except for maybe a Hally + SPF scum team, but similar to how Alison reasoned above I think they may have been able to help avoid an LC elimination for at least a day by, for example, pushing me harder on D2)

And that Nook is *plausibly* town on the basis of a vote on LC during a time where his vote would've conceivably make a difference.

I also didn't like the sheepy-attitude of Tutuu as of late. It kinda goes along with the "hey I'm flexible with you" sort of scum strategy in my opinion. Especially her day 1 reads list was all "hey I tr all these people, I find carotenoid scummy, and for my 2 other scum reads I just don't know but someone has to be scum". I mean like, its kinda of prolonging your reads list until you get a sense of where the thread is going and then posture your reads for that. I can understand her reasons for sheeping if she was honestly wrong about Long Con, but I just don't feel its plausible within the current game-state that she's town.

Anyways, I do feel like the last 2 scum are probably in Nook/Sloonei/Tutuu, with the most likely I'm feeling is Sloonei/Tutuu (However, I never really looked into Sloonei independently for scum plausibility I will admit).

#1952

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 1:40 am I do not think it’s an accurate theory.

If from your POV it's not you and you don't think it's Alison, who are your suspects?

#1953

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:37 pm This has not felt like Hally’s scum game that I saw in Champs, but our current interaction is bugging me. Maybe it’s because I’m snippy with all the constant suspicions against me all game, but “lol weird that you’d show up right after someone calls you scum” when I’ve been getting called scum by half the players all game long is like... when am I allowed to post if that’s the case?

Agreed about Hally being different from their scum meta. I looked at one of Hally's scum games on PerC and the difference is pretty clear. Their thoughts have been much clearer and made much more sense. In that game their tone looked towny but I didn't meld with their thoughts at all and their posting style was pretty different.

I really should do more research and fact check my suspicions before I strongly push them in thread.

#1954

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 11:26 pm long con: i've been trying to figure out whether or not long con's "i am super detached from this game"-style of playing was coming from a genuine place or not. something that inclines me to think that long con isn't using their disinterest as an excuse to be lazy is the fact that they are still outing reads/thoughts in spite of being in a position where they don't ~have~ to make them. in particular, i like long con bringing attention to carotte's lack of stances on #470, because i noticed the same thing in my own readthrough. i would gth townread long con because of that

SPF townread LC here early on, and then called LC town in the bun to head reads as well.

I wouldn't list SPF as an immediate suspect, but is there any reasoning why SPF can't be scum? Do others think we might be clearing SPF too easily? I get that SPF has had towny thoughts/tone all game but I think that's somewhat fakeable.

#1955

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:38 am I wouldn't list SPF as an immediate suspect, but is there any reasoning why SPF can't be scum? Do others think we might be clearing SPF too easily? I get that SPF has had towny thoughts/tone all game but I think that's somewhat fakeable.

Perhaps I'm being too dismissive of it but my initial thought is that she was more focused on other suspects such as possibly me, rather than being convinced that Long Con is a strong suspect. After all, JJJ himself said this:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 8:08 am When I consider universes where Alison is town, process of elimination leads me to some uninspired places, where I feel like I have to default to the most generic suspicions like Long Con and/or Nanook.

Sometimes people just don't want to call the generic suspicions as they are just because it feels like little effort has been placed into scum-hunting, and the level of effort into something can be a significant factor within psychology. As to whether that applies here in this case in any way, I can't say but gut says its plausible especially since JJJ's posting suggests a hesitancy to go to the usual suspects

#1956

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:08 pm Sometimes people just don't want to call the generic suspicions as they are just because it feels like little effort has been placed into scum-hunting, and the level of effort into something can be a significant factor within psychology

Tbh if anything this may explain myself and some of my interactions or mentions of Long Con.

#1957

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:43 am
Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 1:40 am I do not think it’s an accurate theory.
If from your POV it's not you and you don't think it's Alison, who are your suspects?

I never said I don’t think it’s Alison.

I will be doing some heavy analysis this phase. I’ll have more thorough reads at that point.

#1958

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:23 pm
Thunal33 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:43 am
Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 1:40 am I do not think it’s an accurate theory.
If from your POV it's not you and you don't think it's Alison, who are your suspects?
I never said I don’t think it’s Alison.

I will be doing some heavy analysis this phase. I’ll have more thorough reads at that point.

I'll try to do some involved analysis since I feel I need to do that to have better suspects (I don't have any strong suspects rn), but I'll be pretty busy today. I think I'll be able to do more analysis tomorrow.

#1959

#1960

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2020 4:07 pm I have a very good track record in games where we vote to give someone a gun. Which this basically is. So vote to give me a gun.

End pitch and posting.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2020 5:09 pm Ok fine I’ll make one more

Optimal is for everyone to vote [n-Nanook] where n is all the players

Then nanook votes one person

Then you all give me a gun at night and I shoot it and scum dies

Rinse and repeat

K now I’m done posting

I think these posts are completely NAI from Nanook. They feel like more of a joke than anything, although Nanook probably did want the gun.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 6:18 am
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 5:31 am If @NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME gives me just one nice hunt-oriented post I will give him a free town read, as long as I feel the effort was genuine.
Ok you can have one

Alison and tutu >rand town (tutu significantly >rand, would only consider her partners with Hally)

Hally also >rand town, which ties back to part of why tutu is significantly above rand town imo

I think sloon seems townie but I’ll almost certainly just sheep your reads on each other at the end of the day, unless I think you’re both mafia ofc but no reason to think that atp, so pretty content to sheep your reads on each other when/where relevant

Nutella probably slightly>rand town but not super confident

Martin seems townie

That’s where I am rn. Have some scattered miscellaneous thoughts but those are the only ones I have enough confidence in to be worth mentioning. Now I’m gonna return to not posting in an effort to retain a tiebreaker if necessary.

This scattered thought process feels town to me. It gives me the strong feeling Nanook is giving genuine takes off the top of his head without concerning himself with the strategic value of those reads (especially since he gave this many takes at the start of the game).

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:04 pm Tutu/Martin/[one of jay/sloonei possibly both depends on how their reads on each other develop]/...maybe nutes maybe SPF—think they’re not both scum, not sure if they’re both town. Thunal seems townie but I haven’t done research so idk.

More of this scattered, natural feeling thought process. I think Nanook is town since even though his ISO has been underwhelming the posts he has made are towny.

#1961

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:33 pm
MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:21 pm Okay. I think Thunal33 and Alison's differences or scum-reads on each other were kinda set-up to turn out this way after having early-game differences on play-style or perception.
Oh yeah I forgot to

@Alison
@Thunal33

See the big post that I quoted here. Use the arrow in the quote to jump to it.

Tl;dr

You guys are TvT in my opinion, as much as I hate to say that I think your guys scum-reads on each other are wrong in the sense that neither of you two are scum even if some of the points exchanged between you two were valid. However, those valid reasons stemmed in part from key differences in viewpoints or playstyles of Forum Mafia and (in some cases) what constitutes as townie. If either of you two were wolves I think reasons not stemming from these key differences would have become apparent and maybe even these scum-reads appear sooner than they did. Or at least, I don't feel like there's any wolves in that conflict.

Also, this is town. My confident townreads at this point are Martin, Nutella, and Alison.

Down a tier to my semi-confident townreads would be Hally, SPF, and Nanook.

That leaves Sloonei and Tutuu but I don't think it's that easy. SPF is actually the least confident out of my semi-confident townreads. Sloonei is my top suspect rn but I wouldn't call it strong suspicion since I'm not confident in my overall read accuracy.

#1962

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 8:38 am
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:46 pm i really dislike this post - martin is going out of his way to say that LC is null and acting annoyed that he has to talk about him at all - even though he spent a lot of d1 implying that long con was scummy, and he put long con as gth scum in an exercise a few hours earlier. i don't understand why martin would choose to hedge on lc's alignment here as town, especially since his reasoning for "holding off" feels more and more flimsy the longer that he uses it as a justification for not taking a stance on lc
I didn't interpret that post as saying LC was null, I interpreted it as Martin saying he already stated his read on LC but I could be wrong.

my understanding through reading the progression on his read on LC is that martin was planning to "hold off" on outing a read/pushing on LC on d1 because of the people who townread him. my main gripe w/that post is that he was carrying it on to d2 without being clear if he still fos'd him

#1963

how did thunal interact with long con?

i like thunal bringing up suspicion/paranoia toward long con on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=675408#p675408 - this was at a point when the suspicion on long con was low, and i don't see why thunal would feel incentivized to throw shade on her partner like that

i get a similar feeling from viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=675604#p675604 - thunal put LC low in her POE even at a point when long con was not a popular chop option by any means. if thunal is mafia with LC then it means that she bussed early and she bussed aggressively

once again, thunal goes out of her way to bring attention to long con slipping under the radar on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=676986#p676986 and viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=676994#p676994. this was at a point when jagged/alison were arguing and when there were a lot of other viable pushes besides long con. thunal is constantly going: "hey, look at long con! he's scummy!" when she would have zero reason to do that as his partner

how did long con interact with thunal?

viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=677026#p677026 is notable because it's one of the only times during the game where long con directly answers a question & tries to justify his own actions - gth this reflects nicely on thunal, because it feels like long con is trying to appease her/evade thunal pushing on her suspicions further

lc didn't have any other notable interactions with thunal beyond lightly townreading her on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=677061#p677061

the only interaction that i find slightly suspicious is long con throwing out thunal's name in a weirdly uncomfortable/unnatural way on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=677035#p677035 - i can't figure out why lc chose to throw shade on thunal in that moment, especially since the rest of his attitude toward her was just buddying

conclusion: i was honestly a little suspicious of thunal before i did this analysis, but i'm feeling a lot better about her alignment now. the interactions between thunal/long con consistently point to thunal being town, and i find it unlikely that she went out of her way to hardbus her partner on d1

**http://www.last.fm/user/nutella23** · #1964

I'm living in the sloonei tutuu world for now tbh

#1965

I looked through JJJ's ISO and the JJJ NK could very easily have been made by Sloonei and not Alison. JJJ apparently has a very good track record of reading Sloonei and he trended from saying Sloonei is probably town to saying he's GTH mafia in the bun to head reads and really wishing Sloonei had more presence. If it isn't Sloonei, it would have to be two deepwolves from my PoV, and as someone else pointed out if that were the case they could have stopped a Long Con elim. I do wonder if Sloonei was trying a different playstyle so he could avoid being read by JJJ. The Sloonei/LC interactions don't look great for Sloonei either.

#1966

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 5:11 pm I'm living in the sloonei tutuu world for now tbh

What would you say your confidence level on Sloonei is at this point? And what's your track record on reading Sloonei later in the game?

#1967

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 5:11 pm I'm living in the sloonei tutuu world for now tbh

GTH that's what I would name the scum team as too but I have this paranoia that it can't possibly be that easy.

**http://www.last.fm/user/nutella23** · #1968

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 5:24 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 5:11 pm I'm living in the sloonei tutuu world for now tbh
What would you say your confidence level on Sloonei is at this point? And what's your track record on reading Sloonei later in the game?

I'm feeling quite confident on sloonei atm. Not sure how to answer that second part, I think I've caught him as scum a couple times but have also incorrectly tinfoiled him when he was town a couple times? But nothing really comparable to his play in this game

#1969

how did tutuu interact with long con?

tutuu's early townread on long con on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=674861#p674861 is notable - i still do think this is a towny moment for tutuu, but it loses a little bit of the town equity that i originally gave it in light of lc being mafia.

i only find viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=675445#p675445 scummy in the sense that tutuu is giving a lot of attention to long con and going out of her way to interact with him - this is otherwise neutral

the hedginess toward long con on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=676009#p676009 raised my eyebrows a little bit - i get why tutuu would be cautious of long con if she was town, but i havent really seen her throw out that amount of self-doubt toward her own townread before, it makes me feel like tutuu was uncomfortable w/her tr on long con

tutuu doubles down on her tr on lc on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=676730#p676730 - my gut reaction is that tutuu would treat her partners with a little more distance and not be so brazen

viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=677419#p677419 actually bothers me a bit - i dont understand how tutuu went from saying "long con town long con town" a couple of hours before saying that she doesn't mind if we chop long con. why didn't she want to defend a townread that she clearly strongly believed in? it's not like she was shy about sticking up for her read either - she says in viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=677812#p677812 that she was fully expecting long con to flip town, too

how did long con interact with tutuu?

viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=675588#p675588 this would be a cocky post for lc to make about his partner so early in the game, lol

long con continues to townread tutuu from that point forward - which is why his choice to throw shade on tutuu on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=676190#p676190 is a little bit weird. i got the impression that long con was trying to pocket tutuu by aggressively tr'ing her, and wouldn't throwing that kind of shade on her potentially jeopardize his ability to do that?

conclusion:

i still think that tutuu is more likely town than not - but there are a couple of eyebrow raising moments here. tutuu/lc had a couple of interactions that rub me the wrong way, and i would like to hear other peoples thoughts on this as well

#1970

im not mafia

im town

<--- look at those eyes

are u calling someone with those eyes a liar?

#1971

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:40 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:34 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:32 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:48 pm Eh I’m not sure I can read tutu this game
I think it's going to be really hard to know, when she finally rands wolf, due to her having no wolf records on this site. I don't know what it looks like.
what should we do today, Mr. Con?
I'm going to do some ISO looking today, and I'll get back to you on that, if that's ok.

i found this post while i was iso'ing nanook, and i wanted to bring it up. this is one of the only times in the entire game that long con uses overly formal/polite language in response to another player. his demeanor toward sloonei here is partly apologetic - what do we make of this?

#1972

how did nanook interact with long con?

viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=676667#p676667 this post reflects decently on nanook - he sounds at ease and he isnt going out of his way to overplay his initial interaction with long con

i sort of like viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=676731#p676731 too - nanook is expressing disagreement with long con, but he isn't being overly performative or overstating his frustration. i generally expect partner interaction to have more frills

how did long con interact with nanook?

i honestly did not find any interactions with nanook that were notable besides the post i mentioned above - long con had a very passive attitude toward nanook and only had a couple of mild softball interactions with him. gth, the fact that long con went out of his way to avoid interacting with nanook reflects nicely on nanook

conclusion: there's not a lot here - but what i can find reflects pretty decently on nanook. i think this is more in his favor than it is not

#1973

its not me guys im innocent ;-;

**http://www.last.fm/user/nutella23** · #1974

tutuu wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 5:35 pm im not mafia

im town

<--- look at those eyes

are u calling someone with those eyes a liar?

i dont like that you are using a change of avatar for game relevant reasons

**http://www.last.fm/user/nutella23** · #1975

like thats honestly really gross and shouldnt be allowed and just makes me suspect you more :nanookrudeshrug:

#1976

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 5:40 pm
tutuu wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 5:35 pm im not mafia

im town

<--- look at those eyes

are u calling someone with those eyes a liar?
i dont like that you are using a change of avatar for game relevant reasons

i dont like that you are scolding me and overreacting to my innocent joke

**http://www.last.fm/user/nutella23** · #1977

#1978

i change my avi all the time i get bored of them quickly

u didnt say anything when i changed it to the head pat girl after jay patted my head

how is this any more game relevant than the head pat girl

i think youre just annoyed because youre paranoid if im scum at how im gloating / openwolfing. "im so innocent uwu but secretly im evil hahaha" - ur afraid if i will get away with posting like that as mafia

but dont take your annoyance on me please. articulate why my change of avi in this scenario was bad or dont say stuff i do are gross, it hurts to read stuff like that

**http://www.last.fm/user/nutella23** · #1979

tutuu wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 5:51 pm how is this any more game relevant than the head pat girl

because you literally explictly made it so???? like duh?????

**http://www.last.fm/user/nutella23** · #1980

you literally pointed to the eyes and did an AtE that was intended to be directly game relevant defense

it's not cool

**http://www.last.fm/user/nutella23** · #1981

tutuu wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 5:51 pm i think youre just annoyed because youre paranoid if im scum at how im gloating / openwolfing. "im so innocent uwu but secretly im evil hahaha" - ur afraid if i will get away with posting like that as mafia

you're not getting away with it.

#1982

nutella. it was a tongue-in-cheek joke. its no different than posting a gif of a girl crying. i wanted to change my avi to this one regardless

#1983

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 5:52 pm
tutuu wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 5:51 pm i think youre just annoyed because youre paranoid if im scum at how im gloating / openwolfing. "im so innocent uwu but secretly im evil hahaha" - ur afraid if i will get away with posting like that as mafia

you're not getting away with it.

then how is it gross if its not getting me townread?

do not call stuff that i do gross when they arent gross in the future, please

#1984

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 5:42 pm like thats honestly really gross and shouldnt be allowed and just makes me suspect you more :nanookrudeshrug:

It's actually against the rules on PerC/MafC, which I found out the last time I played this setup when I changed my avi for non game related reasons and a townie thought I did it to make myself look less suspicious.

#1985

how did alison interact with long con?

alison drops a very soft defense of lc on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=675653#p675653 - i dont find this particularly alignment indicative

the shade on lc on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=676032#p676032 looks okay for alison - i like that she is emphasizing that he has wolf potential even if she is simultaneously emphasizing that he shouldn't be pushed on ~~yet~~

alison puts lc toward the middle of her town list on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=676948#p676948 - this is sort of how i would expect a scum to treat their partner on d1, but shrug

alison suggests that lc is one of her scumreads, but that she doesnt see him as a good chop for the day on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=677149#p677149

i do like alison acknowledging the points against lc and being willing to vote him on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=677416#p677416 - but her choice to accept a lc chop for the day is in reaction to nutella fos'ing lc - which makes it lose a bit of town equity for me

how did long con interact with alison?

the first time lc mentions alison, it's to throw shade on her along w/tutuu on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=676190#p676190

lc throws a bit of shade on alison again on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=677366#p677366 - but his shade is secondary to his push on nutella. the way that lc is focusing on nutella while taking a moment to go "yeah alison is scummy too" does strike me as how i would expect lc to bus, tbh

lc's vote on alison at the end of the day when his chop was already sealed on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=677633#p677633 almost feels like he's trying to make alison look bad, lol

conclusion: there were a number of lc/alison interactions that i found concerning and suggestive of a possible bus - i was really hoping to come out of this with a townread on alison, but there are enough eyebrow-raising interactions between them that i simply cant

#1986

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 5:30 pm how did tutuu interact with long con?

tutuu's early townread on long con on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=674861#p674861 is notable - i still do think this is a towny moment for tutuu, but it loses a little bit of the town equity that i originally gave it in light of lc being mafia.

i only find viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=675445#p675445 scummy in the sense that tutuu is giving a lot of attention to long con and going out of her way to interact with him - this is otherwise neutral

the hedginess toward long con on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=676009#p676009 raised my eyebrows a little bit - i get why tutuu would be cautious of long con if she was town, but i havent really seen her throw out that amount of self-doubt toward her own townread before, it makes me feel like tutuu was uncomfortable w/her tr on long con

tutuu doubles down on her tr on lc on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=676730#p676730 - my gut reaction is that tutuu would treat her partners with a little more distance and not be so brazen

viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=677419#p677419 actually bothers me a bit - i dont understand how tutuu went from saying "long con town long con town" a couple of hours before saying that she doesn't mind if we chop long con. why didn't she want to defend a townread that she clearly strongly believed in? it's not like she was shy about sticking up for her read either - she says in viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=677812#p677812 that she was fully expecting long con to flip town, too

how did long con interact with tutuu?

viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=675588#p675588 this would be a cocky post for lc to make about his partner so early in the game, lol

long con continues to townread tutuu from that point forward - which is why his choice to throw shade on tutuu on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=676190#p676190 is a little bit weird. i got the impression that long con was trying to pocket tutuu by aggressively tr'ing her, and wouldn't throwing that kind of shade on her potentially jeopardize his ability to do that?

conclusion:

i still think that tutuu is more likely town than not - but there are a couple of eyebrow raising moments here. tutuu/lc had a couple of interactions that rub me the wrong way, and i would like to hear other peoples thoughts on this as well

Tutuu is Tutuu. My confidence in reading her is completely nonexistent because of her playstyle and the fact that I've never played with her or even seen her game. She's in my PoE simply for not feeling really towny (she did somewhat on D1 but fell off after that). Has tutuu had any recent scum games you could link to?

#1987

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 6:02 pm Has tutuu had any recent scum games you could link to?

yea - https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 273&t=1958

#1988

tutuu wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 6:03 pm
Thunal33 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 6:02 pm Has tutuu had any recent scum games you could link to?
yea - https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 273&t=1958

So you go from calling yourself town to openwolfing. Interesting.

#1989

well it was too funny to miss out on that one

dont worry i wont hit the pedal to the metal though. i am town

#1990

maybe sloonei mafia

#1991

i was going to do an interaction analysis for hally as well, but i don't have the energy rn. i'll make one if hally would ever somehow become a suspect in my mind - but i've felt more and more okay about them being town as the game has gone on

and for the sake of due diligence, these are the specific interactions hally had with lc that make me think they have low partner equity:

viewtopic.php?p=677368#p677368 - long con completely deflates and stops pursuing nutella as an angle as aggressively once hally shuts their push down. i dont think long con would have such a deflated reaction if hally was partnered with him

viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=677406#p677406 - hally not only puts pressure on lc, but they explicitly ask for every player in the game to take a stance on LC. this would be an incredibly bold thing for hally to do to their partner, especially before lc's death was sealed

#1992

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 6:02 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 5:30 pm how did tutuu interact with long con?

tutuu's early townread on long con on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=674861#p674861 is notable - i still do think this is a towny moment for tutuu, but it loses a little bit of the town equity that i originally gave it in light of lc being mafia.

i only find viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=675445#p675445 scummy in the sense that tutuu is giving a lot of attention to long con and going out of her way to interact with him - this is otherwise neutral

the hedginess toward long con on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=676009#p676009 raised my eyebrows a little bit - i get why tutuu would be cautious of long con if she was town, but i havent really seen her throw out that amount of self-doubt toward her own townread before, it makes me feel like tutuu was uncomfortable w/her tr on long con

tutuu doubles down on her tr on lc on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=676730#p676730 - my gut reaction is that tutuu would treat her partners with a little more distance and not be so brazen

viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=677419#p677419 actually bothers me a bit - i dont understand how tutuu went from saying "long con town long con town" a couple of hours before saying that she doesn't mind if we chop long con. why didn't she want to defend a townread that she clearly strongly believed in? it's not like she was shy about sticking up for her read either - she says in viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=677812#p677812 that she was fully expecting long con to flip town, too

how did long con interact with tutuu?

viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=675588#p675588 this would be a cocky post for lc to make about his partner so early in the game, lol

long con continues to townread tutuu from that point forward - which is why his choice to throw shade on tutuu on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=676190#p676190 is a little bit weird. i got the impression that long con was trying to pocket tutuu by aggressively tr'ing her, and wouldn't throwing that kind of shade on her potentially jeopardize his ability to do that?

conclusion:

i still think that tutuu is more likely town than not - but there are a couple of eyebrow raising moments here. tutuu/lc had a couple of interactions that rub me the wrong way, and i would like to hear other peoples thoughts on this as well
Tutuu is Tutuu. My confidence in reading her is completely nonexistent because of her playstyle and the fact that I've never played with her or even seen her game. She's in my PoE simply for not feeling really towny (she did somewhat on D1 but fell off after that). Has tutuu had any recent scum games you could link to?

ive never seen tutuu as mafia before, which is actually part of why im so paranoid of her - i do think her tone is holistically towny, but i have no idea how capable she is at emulating her tone as mafia

#1993

[VOTE: tutuu] aubergine

[VOTE: sloonei] aubergine

good talk

#1994

if i had to make a list of who looks towniest to scummiest based solely on the interaction analysis, it would look like:

nutella
thunal
hally
nanook
tutuu
alison
martin
sloonei

#1995

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 5:25 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 5:11 pm I'm living in the sloonei tutuu world for now tbh
GTH that's what I would name the scum team as too but I have this paranoia that it can't possibly be that easy.

From my point of view I didn't think it was easy, I feel like if it is Sloonei + Tutuu then some unfortunate or unpredictable events occurred that led me (or us) to believe everyone else is likely town. Hence why it may seem easy.

-I've been swinging a lot in the area between "Martin is towny" and "Martin is scummy" of the general consensus; and with context taken into account I would conjecture that I was (and/or are) not as much as a threat as the other town players in this game. Besides, the mafia have had only 2 night kills so far to be selective of.

-There's also the fairly convincing Hally + SPF mindmeld on later D2 that preety much says to me they can't ever be V/W, with V/V being the simpler and likelier option. (I also will admit I am slightly taking the lazy option of town reading Hally here with this, I never got to ISO'ing her tbh)

-The fact that Thunal and Alison's interactions seemed to be V/V, and hence therefore they are both town (Or at least thats what I argued).

-Then there's Nutella preety much initiating the overall town push onto Long Con on D2, which if somehow scum would mean she hard bussed a scummate on D2 which I find quite unlikely.

-Nook I've put as plausibly town for reasons explored earlier this D3 (I.e. the vote).

I think assuming the scum team is LC + Sloonei + Tutuu then there may have been difficulty in anticipating at least half (if not more) of these turn of events.

And if its somehow LC + Sloonei + Nanook then I still get the same sort of feeling tbh, though I think LC + Sloonei + Tutuu is more plausible.

Although, I'm not sure on the plausibility of a LC + Nook + Tutuu scumteam but if Sloonei is town then that's my last guess.

#1996

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 5:58 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 5:42 pm like thats honestly really gross and shouldnt be allowed and just makes me suspect you more :nanookrudeshrug:
It's actually against the rules on PerC/MafC, which I found out the last time I played this setup when I changed my avi for non game related reasons and a townie thought I did it to make myself look less suspicious.

the person who thought that sounds very reasonable, thunal. god damn wolves and their dirty manipulative tactics

i remember a game i played where this dude hard defended all mafia, pushed only town, got peeked mafia by the cop, claimed that he's mafia 50 times itt and then posted his mafia role PM itt out of frustration. we were about to yeet him, but at the last minute he changed his avi. we all gasped. DAMN, THERE IS NO WAY HE IS MAFIA NOW, HE HAS TO BE TOWN, we all unanimously wrote in maximum size bolded caps, as we swiftly CFD'ed a townie and lost the game at lylo. Victorious, the wolf who used this manipulative tactic gave us a smug grin. But not for long. As the FBI came knocking on his door after we all unanimously reported him for doing ILLEGAL activities on the internet. He got a lifelong prison sentence and was shortly executed using a guillotine. I bet he won't think of doing bad things like changing his avatar mid game again.

#1997

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 5:30 pm how did tutuu interact with long con?

tutuu's early townread on long con on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=674861#p674861 is notable - i still do think this is a towny moment for tutuu, but it loses a little bit of the town equity that i originally gave it in light of lc being mafia.

i only find viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=675445#p675445 scummy in the sense that tutuu is giving a lot of attention to long con and going out of her way to interact with him - this is otherwise neutral

the hedginess toward long con on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=676009#p676009 raised my eyebrows a little bit - i get why tutuu would be cautious of long con if she was town, but i havent really seen her throw out that amount of self-doubt toward her own townread before, it makes me feel like tutuu was uncomfortable w/her tr on long con

tutuu doubles down on her tr on lc on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=676730#p676730 - my gut reaction is that tutuu would treat her partners with a little more distance and not be so brazen

viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=677419#p677419 actually bothers me a bit - i dont understand how tutuu went from saying "long con town long con town" a couple of hours before saying that she doesn't mind if we chop long con. why didn't she want to defend a townread that she clearly strongly believed in? it's not like she was shy about sticking up for her read either - she says in viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=677812#p677812 that she was fully expecting long con to flip town, too

how did long con interact with tutuu?

viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=675588#p675588 this would be a cocky post for lc to make about his partner so early in the game, lol

long con continues to townread tutuu from that point forward - which is why his choice to throw shade on tutuu on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=676190#p676190 is a little bit weird. i got the impression that long con was trying to pocket tutuu by aggressively tr'ing her, and wouldn't throwing that kind of shade on her potentially jeopardize his ability to do that?

conclusion:

i still think that tutuu is more likely town than not - but there are a couple of eyebrow raising moments here. tutuu/lc had a couple of interactions that rub me the wrong way, and i would like to hear other peoples thoughts on this as well

Going from top to bottom, my reactions to it.

-I think its towny regardless, though I suppose you can argue it doesn't have as much town equity given a mafia flip.

-Agreed.

-I come to the conclusion that its a bit weird given that there are no posts mentioning or reacting to Long Con in awhile from Tutuu in connection to that post. Prior to the post, the last Long Con interaction was preety much an entire IRL day. Otherwise I can imagine that this is just Tutuu trying to be a bit silly if I had to assume Tutuu is town here. After all, there was a mention of "Special Agent Jay" by Tutuu on the post prior to it about an hour before it. Of course, this is assuming a town Tutuu.

-I get the gut feeling of scummy AI from this sort of thing rather than "oh this is scummy now because Long Con flipped red". She put a lot of faith into the derp-clear without any sort of clear sense of paranoia or even bringing up other reasons for the town-read. Its scummy confidence either because they're protecting a teammate or they're TMI'ing on a towny or etc.

-Agreed.

-Also agreed.

-Annnnnd agreed.

#1998

tutuu wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 6:07 pm well it was too funny to miss out on that one

dont worry i wont hit the pedal to the metal though. i am town

It was a bit funny tbh, even if you aren't scum.

Though I'm currently inclined to think you are regardless of that.

#1999

Can anyone who's suspicious of tutuu lay out why? Are there reasons that make tutuu likely mafia or is it just PoE?

#2000

Long Con ISO:

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2020 7:30 pm Um, for the record, I know what groovy means. I was making fun of Sloonei using the word.

This was in response to the following tutuu post:

Spoiler: show

Long Con's early posts are all short, "too cool for school" types of posts. It makes it difficult to assess his interactions. This one started with him "making fun of" me for saying "groovy" with a one-word response. Tutuu types a lot of words wondering how a person has gone their whole life without hearing that word before. It can be a misunderstanding. It does not tell me much about tutuu's alignment, but gth I will call it a good look.

Spoiler: show

Here's a few more posts of LC saying absolutely nothing to me and nova. Just noting them for context. Long Con evidently does not feel like talking to us on Day 1.

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 11:37 am
tutuu wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 11:33 am Wait @JaggedJimmyJay uve never been scum?
When JJJ is scum, he plays so hard that the scum become the new town, and get their own town win.

A JaggedJimmyJoke about JaggedJimmyJay directed at tutuu. Okay.

Spoiler: show

This post says so little I wonder why it exists. I believe it was around this time that I accused LC's nonchalance as being affected; as in, he was putting on act of not caring. It continues to make it difficult to assess these interactions. Hally is town outside of this moment, and I have no reason to read this negatively for them.

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 1:52 pm Okay I would like to partner with SPF

In response to this post from tutuu. Does Long Con "partner" with his actual partner as a joke? Maybe. LC's a lover of wifom. I doubt SPF is bad but I'll keep an eye on these two.
Does LC's partner make that post and ask LC to pick a partner? Maybe. Idk, no one in the world has seen what tutuu looks like when she's bad.

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 1:54 pm And we will take out Sloonei and Martin.

Martin could be bad. Idk. Does LC pick out two town players to "take out" here? I can do very little with these posts. Way to go, LC.

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 3:36 pm Carotte questioned the pairings, in lieu of giving an opinion.

This seems at least mildly critical of carotte, a civilian. Noted.

Spoiler: show

Earlier LC was pledging to "take me out" but now I am town. I don't know what to do with this, but I wanted to note it. Maybe he is trying to appease me/shake me off.

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 4:12 pm tutuu lock town

Okay... tutuu has probably been the most prominent name in this ISO so far, for whatever that's worth. But... I can say very little about any of these interactions. They just exist. Does LC declare his partner to be "lock town" on Day 1? See my comment about LC & wifom above.

For context to anyone who's new to LC: I once lost a game to him when he was mafia because he self-voted to put himself in a tie for the lead on Day 1 for absolutely no reason and then he rode that credibility to a solo win at F3 (sorry mr stark).

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 5:16 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 5:13 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 1:52 pm Okay I would like to partner with SPF
okay, i'm in. can you help me townread you more? what's your plan for solving the game right now? do u have any concern about anyone here right now?
I plan to make judgment calls on peoples' posts, interactions, and reactions, and use those to guide my votes.

Beep boop.

Spoiler: show

spf is not content to let LC's beep boop go by, so she continues to prod him. Cool. LC repeats a town read on tutuu. Coool.
I have yet to figure out why LC has this read. It is the only definitive stance he has taken in the game.

Spoiler: show

Jokes at Alison. Okay.

Spoiler: show

A town read on Martin for (I think?) warning somebody about being in danger of the post cap. I don't think that sort of thing is really alignment indicative. This is the first mention of Martin, I think. Meh. I don't love it, but it's barely anything.

Spoiler: show

This was LC's motto for Day 1, evidently.

Long Con wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:23 pm Hally, I get that you are really into this game, and have kind of checked out of the other game, but it's the opposite for me. I'm just not that into this game yet. Most of my reading has been skimmy. I'm not going to try to make up reads I don't have. Vote me if you like, I don't really care.

This is maybe the most substantive post LC has made, and it exists purely to get Hally off his case. I'll call that a good look. Hooray.

Long Con wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:23 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:22 pm is there anyone who wouldn’t want to save spf? we can still make that happen if it’s what the consensus wants. we just have to put everyone else at two votes instead of one
SPF is my battle partner, so I want to save her.

Here's another nod to LC linking himself with SPF. I still do not know what to do with it. It exists.

Long Con wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 2:02 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 2:01 pm Ok so it looks like we'll need someone to vote everyone except the person we want to get the gun so it doesn't just go to lowest poster
I can do that. Tell me exactly what do do please.

I'm gonna go ahead and town read nutella based on LC's emoji. Nothing but top quality reads in here. That

looks like he's trying to disarm her. "I am on your side, fellow townie." Yeah.

Long Con wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 2:29 pm I don't think Hally did anything wrong, certainly not "causing chaos". I was surprised to look at the poll and suddenly see so many votes, but that's about it. It makes sense. I didn't like tutuu and Alison causing an uproar about it.

I support the SPF initiative. Should I put a vote on everyone but her? Or just Nanook?

Whoa, check this out, LC's actually talking about events in the thread. This was in response to Hally's mass-vote on Day 1 and tutuu getting all bothered by it. This marks a noteworthy change in LC's demeanor toward tutuu, as she has previously been his top town read, but here she's being shaded (along with Alison) for her response to something specific. I might be inclined to read that in tutuu's favor: if LC is committed to hard-townreading a partner on Day 1, I don't think he walks it back so casually like this. But the fact that he's linking Alison and tutuu together does nullify that a bit. He has had less (nothing) to say about Alison to this point.
At any rate, there was never any chance of either tutuu or Alison getting chopped on Day 1, so there is no immediate risk if one of these two is his teammates. I'll keep an eye on these names as we move into Day 2 of LC's ISO.
Also of note is that LC supports the idea of giving SPF the gun on Night 1. He has no reason to resist the town's initiative on that front: we are chopping a civilian, and that's all that matters to him here.

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:56 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:54 pm I am exaggerating a bit when I say sloonei was lolcatting, but he really did not post any serious content and seemed completely flippant about the night vote. He really felt detached in the way a deflated scum would.
Why would he be deflated? Town was yeeted.

I don't think this sort of interaction ever happens between teammates. nutella starts the day with a hard push on a civilian Sloonei. LC immediately swats it away. If they're partners, this a needless and counterproductive exchange unless the point is to get someone like me to make this exact point. Nah.

Uh. Just want to point out a bizarre oddity from LC at this point: over the course of ~30 minutes, he makes 5 straight posts that are direct responses to nutella. It's not like they're engaged in any sort of back-and-forth. The first two of these posts (the one above and follow-up) are part of the same exchange, but after that LC makes three isolated responses to nutella. I don't know what, if anything, it means, but I'm inclined to say LC is more conscious of the optics of this sort of thing if nutella is his partner. I'm already firmly reading her as town anyway.

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:32 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:48 pm Eh I’m not sure I can read tutu this game
I think it's going to be really hard to know, when she finally rands wolf, due to her having no wolf records on this site. I don't know what it looks like.

:fry:

Spoiler: show

LC claims to have no read on nutella despite having just spend a half hour doing nothing but interacting with her. Also this reminds me of Michelle ISOing three civilians on Day 1 of the Champs FInale. I'll go ahead and call nutella town and ignore all future posts about her unless something changes in here.

Spoiler: show

LC pouring some wine into the thread. I'm not sure this tells me much about nanook. He's here.

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:18 pm Maybe I misunderstand. I thought you were saying that, if the group sends a town and a mafia, then the mafia would choose to send another mafia so that they could subvert the democratic process and yeet a town member that was supposed to be safe.

The alleged "derpclear". Lol.

Spoiler: show

A generic question for Alison. Apparently there was a context to LC's "Martin/Sloonei" post on Day 1 which I missed. Okay. He did absolutely nothing to pursue either me or Martin on Day 1. I am wary of Martin now. Thunal pointing this out feels like a good look as well.

Spoiler: show

This looks like some Day 2 shade at Mr. JimmyJay. Noted.

Firm defense of Thunal. I kinda just think she's town tho

Long Con wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 4:53 pm Martin has given me the most consistent and vocal suspicion out of anyone, and we're the only pair you find has m-m potential?

Jay's chart points to Martin/LC as an especially viable pair. LC swats that away by saying that Martin has been his most vocal opponent in the thread. That is... not my memory of Day 2. As is always the case with LC, however, I am wary of deliberate wifom.

Long Con wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 5:08 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 5:03 pmlong con: long con feels like they are barely part of this game, and they seem genuinely unconcerned w/the pressure being put on them.
Someone else (Martin) brought up my lack of concern for pressure/suspicion/votes. I'm just really used to it by now, with how games are played these days with strong early PoE and towncore always forming, I find it better to just plow ahead than worry about the usual suspicion.

This response to SPF feels kind of stressed and distant, for lack of a better word. Like he didn't want to respond but had to address the concern anyway. Probably a good look for SPF, in case anyone's still doubting her.

Spoiler: show

The slight miscommunication from Thunal here feels good, but I have a slight ping that LC choosing Martin/Me over Carotte/Thunal on Day 1 might point toward her being his partner. I doubt it at this point, but one of the first pseudo-stances LC took in the game was a slightly negative read on Carotte, but when he was asked to "pick a pair" on Day 1,he chose the one that did not include Carotte. It also included Thunal. But this is LC. I don't think he's afraid of distancing/weird interactions with his teammates, even at the very start of the game. If I am being asked to vote for either Martin or Thunal, I will vote for Martin.

This post in response to nanook is odd. LC picks out three posts from nanook that indicate "wolf equity" (I don't think I've ever seen LC use that phrase before) with little old me, but then walks it back to say these are "not strong" interactions. It is difficult to assess LC's stance on nanook from this post. It seems negative, but it's worded in such a cordial way that I almost feel like he's trying not to come off too negative.

More shade at Jay, with an implied Sloonei/JJJ wolf world. Nah.

Spoiler: show

Does LC ask this question to his teammate? We're back to Day 1 LC: this interaction is so light it is difficult to do anything with. GTH it's a good look for nanook but I barely care.

nutella ISO. I still think she's town. LC does a lot of work to try to paint her negatively. I think this post contributed a lot to his elimination, and I think nutella was instrumental to getting that done. She's not his partner.

Spoiler: show

This is opportunism.
Also gonna note here that I have seen LC say next to nothing about Alison, who was the other major wagon yesterday.

After some effort, I dragged a pair of town-reads on Hally and SPF out of LC. It appears that early tutuu read has gone away. I don't think he has directly articulated either of these reads yet. There was an implied town read on SPF on Day 1. I think this is LC acknowledging that these two players are not going to be viable pushes at any point and going along with the consensus.

Long Con wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:27 am I know this is out of left field, but I thought Martin's posting of his game notes was towny.

14 minutes later, he tacks on an against-the-grant townread on Martin... Okay? Martin is becoming a topic of conversation at this point, but opinions are a bit divided on him. Out of context, I would have called this a good look for martin, as it looks very awkward and I'm not sure LC makes such an awkward post unprovoked when he's scum. But there was some provocation in the form of general Martin chatter. I do not love it. The tide is just starting to turn against him, and LC steps up to defend him. I don't know how much pressure LC was under at this point; if he is under heavy scrutiny at this point, he could be in "anti-spew" mode. I don't think that was the case at this point though.

Hally is putting pressure on LC at this point. I'm willing to give her the same treatment as nutella: town unless something drastic happens. Skipping those posts to save time and energy.

... and if I ignore all nutella and Hally interactions, that takes us to the end of the day. Here is LC's final post:

Long Con wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 3:59 pm Okay sorry I couldn't be here at the end of the day today guys, just pulled over on the side of the road to make a post and a vote. I guess I'll to Alison. Good luck.

[VOTE: alison] aubergine

This post is purely self-preservation and tells me nothing about Alison. If they are partners, only one of them can be chopped/sent to the grasslands via the vote. If she's town, that's still the case. Either way, LC has no choice but to put his vote here. He said absolutely nothing about her this game. Her name probably appears the least of anyone's in this ISO. That is worth noting.

------
Rainbow based purely on this ISO:
nutella
Hally
SPF
Thunal
NANOOK
tutuu
Alison
Martin

Alison and Martin are kind of interchangeable, otherwise the tiers are ranked. LC has very little to say about either of them, and he's a bit inconsistent on Martin. He has next to nothing to say about Alison outside of one vaguely negative comment about her in conjunction with tutuu on Day 1. I will look at those two next.

Nanook and tutuu are more neutral than that color looks. I do not have enough to say that either of them look definitively good, but there is nothing that explicitly points to them being bad either. LC had one awkward looking exchange with Nanook on Day 2 that felt like he was not talking to his teammate, but that was it. The best I can say about tutuu is that if she and LC are partners, then he started the game with a firm townread on her and then abandoned it for no discernible reason and she is virtually absent from his posts on Day 2. I don't know if I've ever seen Mafia #1 act that way toward Mafia #2.

This was less conclusive than I had hoped and did more to confirm/strengthen my town reads point me toward any new suspects.

Does LC/Alison/Martin make sense? That would mean we were on the entire mafia team + me yesterday.

Who is the last bad apple?