[END] Fight Club Mafia

[thellama73]

Alright, I've slept on it and thought a bit more on it, and unfortunately, llama, I don't think I can continue on with your theory. It hinges too much on the cops not having been compromised (which is something I worry has happened). If you can provide evidence to the contrary of how there is absolutely, positively, no way that this has happened yet, I'll hear it out. But otherwise I'm going to go in a different direction for today's lynch.

I don't think it hinges on that at all. It hinges on there being a period of several nights when Tyler considered the cops a threat, and recruited accordingly. If Tyler never considered the cops a threat from the beginning, then the theory falls apart, but unless Tyler is Vompatti or someone who does crazy things for the sake of doing them, I don't think that is likely.

[Long Con]

I'm voting for Long Con because I think his vote for Dom after me seems opportunistic, and his explanation didn't satisfy me one bit. Why would you place a second vote on someone, knowing that n this game, the vote is spread out and two votes is sometimes enough to get someone killed, over a grudge from a previous game? It doesn't pass the smell test.

When was two votes enough to get someone killed? Did you bother to check your facts, or do you just want to get rid of me before I continue to come after you and Boogs?

Day 5 vote leaders had 5, 5, 4, and 4 votes.
Day 6 vote leaders had 7 and 3 votes.
Day 7 Dom was lynched with 3 votes, which you, Llama, also had.

Have a look at the polls yourself if your memory is giving you trouble, Llama. Don't deliberately misrepresent the facts to try and make me look bad - what is opportunistic about placing a second vote on someone? Was every second vote placed on a person in the Day 7 lynch also opportunistic?

Also, SVS, I wish you would devote the same amount of energy to disputing the numerous, absolutely ridiculous theories of "who Tyler can recruit" based on nothing but wild guess from people like Timmer, Hedgeowl and Long Con.

I can tell you this, Dom would be very happy to see the way you're posting now, Llama. I've had unbelievable trouble with him in the past few games, accusing me of things that never happened, and dropping grossly distorted facts like they're a given. I'll let you try and dig yourself out of this one though - just show me one post where I gave a theory of "who Tyler can recruit" and your credibility can be maintained.

I was thinking of voting Boogs over you for the Llama-lynch-save fiasco that got Dom killed, but this kind of desperate attempt to shut me up is really steering my vote your way.

[birdwithteeth11]

Alright, I've slept on it and thought a bit more on it, and unfortunately, llama, I don't think I can continue on with your theory. It hinges too much on the cops not having been compromised (which is something I worry has happened). If you can provide evidence to the contrary of how there is absolutely, positively, no way that this has happened yet, I'll hear it out. But otherwise I'm going to go in a different direction for today's lynch.

I don't think it hinges on that at all. It hinges on there being a period of several nights when Tyler considered the cops a threat, and recruited accordingly. If Tyler never considered the cops a threat from the beginning, then the theory falls apart, but unless Tyler is Vompatti or someone who does crazy things for the sake of doing them, I don't think that is likely.

Several nights where he consider them a threat? How would he not consider them a threat at any point during the game? That doesn't make any sense to me at all.

If he doesn't consider them a threat anymore, it's because they're all dead. Which would also make your theory meaningless.

[birdwithteeth11]

Hey guys, just got back from my trip (Mongoose says hi) and I will try to catch up tomorrow. Tired now.

One thing I iwll say now is that I do not like the way the Dom lynch went down, and I will be looking into several people because of it. Good night!

Hi Goosey!

Ok, here is Long Con's Grand Unified Theory Of How Fighting Works. From what I've read, a lot of people know some things about fighting, so I thought over what I know about it, and here's my theory. There are several elements that seem to affect fights. I hope I'm allowed to talk about them all, but from what I have seen, the 'possibly secret' parts have already been pretty well discussed.

1. Fighting Level - we all (I assume) started with a fighting level. I further assume that most of us started at level 1, and that winning increases your level. People who have won can confirm or deny that, if they're allowed. I also assume that a higher fighting level means you're a better fighter. A level 1 fighter CAN beat a level 2 fighter, I had that host confirmed.

2. Individual Challenge - fighters each get to have a personal challenge against their opponent, which, when judged to win by an independent party, assists them in their fight.

3. The Unknown Factor - some base decision-making thing that is somewhat random, or, even better, players earn without knowing it. I already gave my opinion of what I thought would make sense: the amount a person posts during their fight.

4. Ummm.. I was thinking it over in the car, and I thought I had four factors, but I can't remember what the other factor might have been. Maybe there was only three.

So, it's something like this: (# of posts during the fight + winner of fight-challenge gets ten points) x fighting level = your fight outcome. The player with the higher outcome wins the fight. The greater the difference between the outcomes, the greater the injury to the loser. Too great a difference, and they die.

And that's my theory.

I like this theory and motion that we accept it as standard canon. I will say that, based on my experience, it's weird to me that people are denying knowing at all why they won. It certainly wasn't all spelled out for me, but very bug hints were given. So I'e got my eye on Sorsha now.

That's a good point about Sorsha. I had forgotten how she reacted to this idea originally. Might be another good place for me to look.

What does LCs theory have to do with me?

I can't speak for Russ, but I was referring back to this post:

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 841#p75841

[thellama73]

Alright, I've slept on it and thought a bit more on it, and unfortunately, llama, I don't think I can continue on with your theory. It hinges too much on the cops not having been compromised (which is something I worry has happened). If you can provide evidence to the contrary of how there is absolutely, positively, no way that this has happened yet, I'll hear it out. But otherwise I'm going to go in a different direction for today's lynch.

I don't think it hinges on that at all. It hinges on there being a period of several nights when Tyler considered the cops a threat, and recruited accordingly. If Tyler never considered the cops a threat from the beginning, then the theory falls apart, but unless Tyler is Vompatti or someone who does crazy things for the sake of doing them, I don't think that is likely.

Several nights where he consider them a threat? How would he not consider them a threat at any point during the game? That doesn't make any sense to me at all.

If he doesn't consider them a threat anymore, it's because they're all dead. Which would also make your theory meaningless.

Let me try again.

My theory is as follows:

Assumption 1: Tyler does not want his recruits killed by the police.
Assumption 2: Tyler is capable of thinking logically and strategically.

It follows from these assumptions that Tyler will recruit people he thinks are unlikely to be killed by the police.

Why would someone be unlikely to be killed by the police?
1. The police are all dead, and can kill no one, so anyone is a viable recruit. (impossible for at least a few night periods.)
2. A majority of the police have been recruited, so they are no longer a threat, and anyone is a viable recruit. (impossible for at least a few night periods.)
3. The recruit is someone the police are not likely to check, meaning someone they trust or someone they haven't been paying attention to.

For the first few night periods, then, Tyler will have recruited based on criterion 3. Tyler's first few recruits are therefore people who the police either trust or haven't been paying attention to.

All of this follows logically from my assumptions. The theory has nothing to do with how effective the police actually are or whether they were later all recruited. It has to do with the fact that Tyler must have considered them a threat early in the game.

Is that quite clear now?

P.S. Long COn, I will address your post in a moment.

[thellama73]

I'm voting for Long Con because I think his vote for Dom after me seems opportunistic, and his explanation didn't satisfy me one bit. Why would you place a second vote on someone, knowing that n this game, the vote is spread out and two votes is sometimes enough to get someone killed, over a grudge from a previous game? It doesn't pass the smell test.

When was two votes enough to get someone killed? Did you bother to check your facts, or do you just want to get rid of me before I continue to come after you and Boogs?

Day 5 vote leaders had 5, 5, 4, and 4 votes.
Day 6 vote leaders had 7 and 3 votes.
Day 7 Dom was lynched with 3 votes, which you, Llama, also had.

Have a look at the polls yourself if your memory is giving you trouble, Llama. Don't deliberately misrepresent the facts to try and make me look bad - what is opportunistic about placing a second vote on someone? Was every second vote placed on a person in the Day 7 lynch also opportunistic?

I consider three votes quite a low threshold, and in some of the previous city threads before we all came together, people won fighting polls with 2 or 3 votes. My point is that the votes have, in general, been very spread out this game, and that you should have a good reason for placing a second vote on someone. You did not have one.

And yes, any second vote on someone who ends up being lynched and flips civ is potentially opportunistic and deserves to be looked at.

Also, SVS, I wish you would devote the same amount of energy to disputing the numerous, absolutely ridiculous theories of "who Tyler can recruit" based on nothing but wild guess from people like Timmer, Hedgeowl and Long Con.

I can tell you this, Dom would be very happy to see the way you're posting now, Llama. I've had unbelievable trouble with him in the past few games, accusing me of things that never happened, and dropping grossly distorted facts like they're a given. I'll let you try and dig yourself out of this one though - just show me one post where I gave a theory of "who Tyler can recruit" and your credibility can be maintained.

I was thinking of voting Boogs over you for the Llama-lynch-save fiasco that got Dom killed, but this kind of desperate attempt to shut me up is really steering my vote your way.

How am I trying to shut you up? Apparently if I say anything about or to anyone I am trying to shut them up. I am not trying to shut you up, I am trying to get you killed. There exists a difference.

Here you reiterate your bogus reason for voting Dom, he annoyed you in a past game. SVS has annoyed me in many past games, but I am not going to vote for her for that reason because it is bad tactics. I want to win, not take out personal grudges on people. If you are voting this way, it shows that you knew Dom could be lynched without harming your team. Otherwise you would have actually tried to find a baddie.

Finally, I do owe you an apology. I lumped your "Grand Unified Theory of Fighting" in with the other crazy theories, because I couldn't quite remember what it was about and I was in a hurry to get out the door. I should not have done that, and I'm sorry about it.

[juliets]

Just a quick note, I will not be in the thread today because we are driving home from visiting family and that's an all day affair. I will have to catch up tonight when we get in so I'll be more prepared for a Wed. morning vote.

[Hedgeowl]

Also, SVS, I wish you would devote the same amount of energy to disputing the numerous, absolutely ridiculous theories of "who Tyler can recruit" based on nothing but wild guess from people like Timmer, Hedgeowl and Long Con.

It doesn't strike you as odd that they keep saying things like "well, let's assume that Tyler can only rercuit people whose name starts with J and who were born between April and June during a full moon on leap year"? And you thought I was making too many assumptions!

I am not sure why you include me in this list since I am pretty sure I havent spouted recruiting theories of that nature. Did you perhaps mean unfurl? I just had questions as to why you were stating a nightly recruitment when others seemed so unsure, but you answered my question. I agree that simplest solution is often the most likely and rather than go hog wild on totally unsubstantiated theories it makes the most sense to work with what we know and what is the most probable.

[birdwithteeth11]

Alright, I've slept on it and thought a bit more on it, and unfortunately, llama, I don't think I can continue on with your theory. It hinges too much on the cops not having been compromised (which is something I worry has happened). If you can provide evidence to the contrary of how there is absolutely, positively, no way that this has happened yet, I'll hear it out. But otherwise I'm going to go in a different direction for today's lynch.

I don't think it hinges on that at all. It hinges on there being a period of several nights when Tyler considered the cops a threat, and recruited accordingly. If Tyler never considered the cops a threat from the beginning, then the theory falls apart, but unless Tyler is Vompatti or someone who does crazy things for the sake of doing them, I don't think that is likely.

Several nights where he consider them a threat? How would he not consider them a threat at any point during the game? That doesn't make any sense to me at all.

If he doesn't consider them a threat anymore, it's because they're all dead. Which would also make your theory meaningless.

Let me try again.

My theory is as follows:

Assumption 1: Tyler does not want his recruits killed by the police.
Assumption 2: Tyler is capable of thinking logically and strategically.

It follows from these assumptions that Tyler will recruit people he thinks are unlikely to be killed by the police.

Why would someone be unlikely to be killed by the police?
1. The police are all dead, and can kill no one, so anyone is a viable recruit. (impossible for at least a few night periods.)
2. A majority of the police have been recruited, so they are no longer a threat, and anyone is a viable recruit. (impossible for at least a few night periods.)
3. The recruit is someone the police are not likely to check, meaning someone they trust or someone they haven't been paying attention to.

For the first few night periods, then, Tyler will have recruited based on criterion 3. Tyler's first few recruits are therefore people who the police either trust or haven't been paying attention to.

All of this follows logically from my assumptions. The theory has nothing to do with how effective the police actually are or whether they were later all recruited. It has to do with the fact that Tyler must have considered them a threat early in the game.

Is that quite clear now?

P.S. Long COn, I will address your post in a moment.

No, I get what you're saying. You're saying that you don't think Tyler views the police as a threat because of the types of people he is recruiting. And while I get where you're coming from, I don't understand how Tyler would not consider them a threat simply because of the types of people he is recruiting.

...and I just went back to look at the roles. I had thought this entire time that if the police found Tyler, that he died. And it turns out that is not the case at all. So it sounds like in order for Tyler to die, he either has to lose a fight or we have to lynch him.

Alright. I see how it's likely that you came to your theory now. I guess my one hang-up is putting enough trust in the police, when I consider the possibility that Tyler has recruited at least one of them and/or knows who they all are.

Linki w/ Hedgeowl

[thellama73]

No, I get what you're saying. You're saying that you don't think Tyler views the police as a threat because of the types of people he is recruiting. And while I get where you're coming from, I don't understand how Tyler would not consider them a threat simply because of the types of people he is recruiting.

No, that is the opposite of what I am saying. I am saying that SINCE he MUST have viewed them as a threat at some point, he would have recruited people not on their radar.

[Hedgeowl]

Alright, I've slept on it and thought a bit more on it, and unfortunately, llama, I don't think I can continue on with your theory. It hinges too much on the cops not having been compromised (which is something I worry has happened). If you can provide evidence to the contrary of how there is absolutely, positively, no way that this has happened yet, I'll hear it out. But otherwise I'm going to go in a different direction for today's lynch.

I don't think it hinges on that at all. It hinges on there being a period of several nights when Tyler considered the cops a threat, and recruited accordingly. If Tyler never considered the cops a threat from the beginning, then the theory falls apart, but unless Tyler is Vompatti or someone who does crazy things for the sake of doing them, I don't think that is likely.

Several nights where he consider them a threat? How would he not consider them a threat at any point during the game? That doesn't make any sense to me at all.

If he doesn't consider them a threat anymore, it's because they're all dead. Which would also make your theory meaningless.

Let me try again.

My theory is as follows:

Assumption 1: Tyler does not want his recruits killed by the police.
Assumption 2: Tyler is capable of thinking logically and strategically.

It follows from these assumptions that Tyler will recruit people he thinks are unlikely to be killed by the police.

Why would someone be unlikely to be killed by the police?
1. The police are all dead, and can kill no one, so anyone is a viable recruit. (impossible for at least a few night periods.)
2. A majority of the police have been recruited, so they are no longer a threat, and anyone is a viable recruit. (impossible for at least a few night periods.)
3. The recruit is someone the police are not likely to check, meaning someone they trust or someone they haven't been paying attention to.

For the first few night periods, then, Tyler will have recruited based on criterion 3. Tyler's first few recruits are therefore people who the police either trust or haven't been paying attention to.

All of this follows logically from my assumptions. The theory has nothing to do with how effective the police actually are or whether they were later all recruited. It has to do with the fact that Tyler must have considered them a threat early in the game.

Is that quite clear now?

P.S. Long COn, I will address your post in a moment.

Yes, this is very clear, but statement 3 I believe to be partly disproven since DH was obviously a potential early recruit. I don't think whoever Tyler is is following your strategy is all I am saying. Or at least not in the manner you would if you were Tyler.

[thellama73]

Hedgeowl, I included you because of this post where you expressed sympathy for the theory that Tyler only recruits from fight winners. Maybe that was unfair, but as I said to Long Con, I was in a hurry to get out the door. I will have to go back and see who initially put these theories out there, but my point was less about the personalities involved and more about the fact that SVS was singling me out for making assumptions while ignoring far stronger assumptions by others.

Early on I thought this as well about Tyler recruits coming from fight winners. Someone made the point that the would be such a narrow group and once we found one, we'd find all the rest as well. I think it's too small a group, but maybe not in a game this big, with 4 different fight clubs going on at once before. Recruiting close friends would be a risky move as well I'd think, because they'd be connected to someone instantly if another teammate was caught. Aces died in the no-vote massacre, but hadnt been recruited, which I'd think was smart since DH had been.

[Hedgeowl]

Hedgeowl, I included you because of this post where you expressed sympathy for the theory that Tyler only recruits from fight winners. Maybe that was unfair, but as I said to Long Con, I was in a hurry to get out the door. I will have to go back and see who initially put these theories out there, but my point was less about the personalities involved and more about the fact that SVS was singling me out for making assumptions while ignoring far stronger assumptions by others.

Early on I thought this as well about Tyler recruits coming from fight winners. Someone made the point that the would be such a narrow group and once we found one, we'd find all the rest as well. I think it's too small a group, but maybe not in a game this big, with 4 different fight clubs going on at once before. Recruiting close friends would be a risky move as well I'd think, because they'd be connected to someone instantly if another teammate was caught. Aces died in the no-vote massacre, but hadnt been recruited, which I'd think was smart since DH had been.

Ah, ok. Understood. I thought I was forgetting some epic theory I had made. I think it also has to do with the fact the you and SVS have different play styles and so this happens a lot in games where you disagree on the fundamentals. It good though to keep discussion going too, because some of us have to post or die as they say.

[Bullzeye]

To the first reply to me: yes I know Tyler would always pick his recruit but that's if one was actually fighting. Imagine if this theory were true though.... At least we would be able to look at the voting for who fights and be able to learn something from it.

To the second reply to me: no I don't know why I won. I didn't think anyone knew for sure how they won. Those who think they do are interpreting messages differently though. My notification said I beat you. Not, I beat you because of......

What would we learn? Even if Tyler does pick who wins fights, the vast majority of players aren't his recruits and had no way to know that that's the case. As far as our fight goes, I was under the impression that while other things may come into play, there's one major deciding factor. It was this factor that cost me our fight in my opinion.

Well, Dom has given me a hard time in the past and gotten me lynched before, so in the absence of a solid suspicion, I tossed a vote his way. It was the second vote on him, and I was surprised to see him get lynched with just one more vote.

I've already laid out my suspicion of you and boogs that Kylemii just mentioned. Immediately after you received your third vote, Llama, boogs gave Dom an equal number of votes, very much saving your life.

I don't buy this explanation. Dom has given me a hard time in many games as well but I've never thrown a vote on him just for the hell of it in a later game. I think all three votes on him were pretty shifty really.

Your optimism is admirable, it is also suspicious. As it also lends credence to my theory that maybe the police are not actually on our side anymore.

Again, theories. Until we get another baddie, no one really knows.

I think the police compromise theory has good and bad points. It certainly seems unlikely to be coincidence that Project Mayhem's first (and only so far) kill happened to hit a police officer, but then none have died since. Wouldn't you think if Tyler wanted the police dead he'd kill them all or recruit them all if he didn't? If I were Tyler I'd want to recruit a cop so he could tell me his teammates and I'd recruit the rest of them, thereby neutralising a major threat without making it obvious I knew who they all were.

Yeah, it would be pretty interesting. People have been saying the baddies would lynch each other if that were the case; I don't know why that's true. You can definitely have roles who know each others' identities without sharing BTSC; MP did that in Bioshock.

I think the Splicers only knew one person's identity and had to guess who the rest of them were. I managed to fool Dom and a few others into thinking I was one so they'd leave me alone. So if recruits don't know each other they would definitely want to go after someone who genuinely looks suspicious and could then end up killing their own teammate unknowingly like in X-Men where Rey and I were both recruits without knowing it and he got me killed after I'd been suspicious of him for most of the game.

LC, that makes a ton of sense what I understood of it. I think I got the basics, but when things turned into a math formula I kinda went numb in the brainz.

Now that DH has been killed by the police and Project Mayham killed INH - I notice - they are not consecutive night killings. I wonder if something has to be achieved to earn a kill? Or if there's some way kills have been blocked on the nights where there is no kill? Or a limit on kills? Dunno...just seems odd to me.

So many things to work out. *aspody head*

This idea also fits with what LC was saying about MP rewarding active players. I think it's super plausible. Could be related to posting, voting, or whatever else MP can come up with.

One thing, though: DH was bad, right? So the police killing him wouldn't have anything to do with the baddies earning an NK, unless I'm misunderstanding you.

What if Tyler can only kill after one of his recruits has been killed? I'm sure I've heard of similar abilities in the past.

But that is based on YOUR idea of who he is likely to recruit; I never recruit civvie sounding people, becasue they have a harder time changing course and get caught easier.

Isn't that why you recruited me in Lost?

Several nights where he consider them a threat? How would he not consider them a threat at any point during the game? That doesn't make any sense to me at all.

If he doesn't consider them a threat anymore, it's because they're all dead. Which would also make your theory meaningless.

I agree with this. A baddie who doesn't consider the only people able to NK them a threat is a baddie who deserves to be NKed.

[unfurl]

Also - I need to re-read the back and forth between llama and svs. My brainz are fried. I swear wed can't get here soon enough. And their thing feels more like it should be a coffee sort of re-read rather than a "OMG, I feel like I'm going to pass out and die." sort of first read.

If you find a solution for fried brainz let me know, cause thats how I also feel after reading this past pages

[thellama73]

Several nights where he consider them a threat? How would he not consider them a threat at any point during the game? That doesn't make any sense to me at all.

If he doesn't consider them a threat anymore, it's because they're all dead. Which would also make your theory meaningless.

I agree with this. A baddie who doesn't consider the only people able to NK them a threat is a baddie who deserves to be NKed.

You agree with BWT's complete and utter failure to understand what I said? Good to know.

[Bullzeye]

Llama, I've actually reversed my position on you because I feel like you've explained away a lot of the issues I had. I was just making a general observation in response to something BWT said, and when I make big posts like that it's usually a stream of consciousness type thing where I respond to posts as I read them.

[thellama73]

Llama, I've actually reversed my position on you because I feel like you've explained away a lot of the issues I had. I was just making a general observation in response to something BWT said, and when I make big posts like that it's usually a stream of consciousness type thing where I respond to posts as I read them.

Thanks, Bullz! You're actually the one person I really trust, because I stand by my position that if you had been recruited, you would have been killed long ago by the police.

Which is the same reason you should trust me.

Who are you thinking of voting for?

[Bullzeye]

Llama, I've actually reversed my position on you because I feel like you've explained away a lot of the issues I had. I was just making a general observation in response to something BWT said, and when I make big posts like that it's usually a stream of consciousness type thing where I respond to posts as I read them.

Thanks, Bullz! You're actually the one person I really trust, because I stand by my position that if you had been recruited, you would have been killed long ago by the police.

Which is the same reason you should trust me.

Who are you thinking of voting for?

Haha really? I suppose that's a decent point. I'd like to trust you, but I'd rather it be through my own observations or something someone else points out than because you say so. At this point I could be swayed into a vote for a Dom voter - I've already highlighted my issue with LC's vote and I don't remember seeing Boogs even post. I'm not 100% committed to that though. I'll probably have to vote either tonight or early tomorrow morning anyway because I'll be going out all day tomorrow and won't be around from about 5 hours before the lynch until a few hours after it.

[Long Con]

First, "trying to shut me up" is a euphemism for trying to kill me. Killing me is the only way you'll shut me up.

And your backpedaling doesn't hold up too well either. In the fight votes before lynches started, the votes were spread out and low because a) people wanted to fight, and b) sometimes a town didn't have more than a handful of people.

The more we shine a light on what you say, Llama, the less it stands up to the scrutiny. I've never played with you before, so I don't know if this mixture of lazy errors and endless discussion without a solid endgame is your usual, but it feels like you are just spinning in circles and then accusing your accusers.

You've done a lot of "theorizing" about Tyler and his recruits... So which players fit your theory? Have you named names, or just floated possibilities for others to form conclusions?

[thellama73]

You've done a lot of "theorizing" about Tyler and his recruits... So which players fit your theory? Have you named names, or just floated possibilities for others to form conclusions?

I can name at least one name:

Long Con.

I have others as well, but I prefer to keep them under my hat for now.

[timmer]

Also, SVS, I wish you would devote the same amount of energy to disputing the numerous, absolutely ridiculous theories of "who Tyler can recruit" based on nothing but wild guess from people like Timmer, Hedgeowl and Long Con.

It doesn't strike you as odd that they keep saying things like "well, let's assume that Tyler can only rercuit people whose name starts with J and who were born between April and June during a full moon on leap year"? And you thought I was making too many assumptions!

Theories are my life. FWIW, I think youve pushed some interesting buttons today. Sometimes button pushing illuminates things. I certainly won't be voting you anytime soon. Long Con seems pretty insistent about keeping this lynchs light on you, I think I need to reread him.

[thellama73]

Also, SVS, I wish you would devote the same amount of energy to disputing the numerous, absolutely ridiculous theories of "who Tyler can recruit" based on nothing but wild guess from people like Timmer, Hedgeowl and Long Con.

It doesn't strike you as odd that they keep saying things like "well, let's assume that Tyler can only rercuit people whose name starts with J and who were born between April and June during a full moon on leap year"? And you thought I was making too many assumptions!

Theories are my life. FWIW, I think youve pushed some interesting buttons today. Sometimes button pushing illuminates things. I certainly won't be voting you anytime soon. Long Con seems pretty insistent about keeping this lynchs light on you, I think I need to reread him.

If people are thinking about voting for me, I would ask them to think before they do so.

Why am I likely to be a recruit?

Why am I likely to be Tyler?

Does the fact that I have been confrontational and produced a theory that others disagree with make me more likely to be either?

Don't just vote for me because you disagree with me or think I am rude. Think it through.

Thank you for your consideration.

[timmer]

Did you... read what I wrote?

[thellama73]

Did you... read what I wrote?

I always read what you write, Timmer. I wasn't implying that you would vote for me. I was responding to the part about how you said Long Con was trying to keep the lynch focused on me.

[timmer]

First, "trying to shut me up" is a euphemism for trying to kill me. Killing me is the only way you'll shut me up.

And your backpedaling doesn't hold up too well either. In the fight votes before lynches started, the votes were spread out and low because a) people wanted to fight, and b) sometimes a town didn't have more than a handful of people.

The more we shine a light on what you say, Llama, the less it stands up to the scrutiny. I've never played with you before, so I don't know if this mixture of lazy errors and endless discussion without a solid endgame is your usual, but it feels like you are just spinning in circles and then accusing your accusers.

You've done a lot of "theorizing" about Tyler and his recruits... So which players fit your theory? Have you named names, or just floated possibilities for others to form conclusions?

Does theorizing about Tyler make someone bad? Just curious. And LC, your Dom vote is very unlike you. I'm reading back through your posts and that was pretty lame.

[timmer]

And furthur to that, LC... "the more WE shine a light?" Wrapping your opinions in words like "we" is a standard mafia tactic to undermine an opponent's position, making them seem isolated. Groupthink comfort, and all that.

[bea]

@ Unfurl - unfortunately, no. My fried brainz status is pretty never ending. If only I could find a cure.

llama and svs seem pretty typical for both of them. I've felt pretty ok about svs this game and gone back and forth on llama a couple times. I'm pretty comforted by going back and forth on him a couple times though. I tend to do that in games.

I am about to leave for work for the day and won't be back for roughly 13ish hours. I'll vote tonight before I finally go to bed because there's NO way I'm waking up at stoopid o'clock for a mafia vote on my one lazy day off this week.

ATM, Boogs may win the honor of my vote. Being active in one game and completely dropping off the face of the longer running game as well as having gone from active to silent here with no mention why. Plus his votes. It's starting to make me sketched out by him.

I would love to hear more from BR and Kyle. I keep forgetting about them except when they post. Leam seems to have dropped off the face of the earth since SVS dropped her suspicion.

Speaking of people I keep forgetting about - MM v2.0 - DP v 2.0, and Daisy are all but non-existant this game.

[Boogs]

Bea- Sorry I have not been able to get into this game at all and the style was throwing me way off with us not lynching or deaths etc. I asked to be replaced back on Day 3 tbh, and he told me to wait it out. I don't understand anything we have to go on in this game and don't understand how we are to win. So I've been coasting along and not participating because I have nothing to say and am lost. So I voted myself to get out but if you guys wanna vote me out as well I wouldn't mind. I think I may die anyway because I've been quiet.

[Canucklehead]

Well golly. That was a heavy reading load, and my semester hasn't even started yet.

Because I am supposed to be constructing a syllabus right now from which I will impart knowledge to the future leaders of America, and not playing mafia, I am going to be very brief here and just touch on my thoughts of some of the names that are being tossed around and the debates that are going on:

SVS/llama: this back and forth reads like it contains a lot of tension from a history of playing together. While I think (?) I agree more with SVS's POV on the issues discussed, that doesn't actually make me think llama is bad. I don't agree neccessarily with his thoughts on who Tyler is/was likely to recruit, I also don't really think holding those theories makes him likely to be bad. I don't know llama's style at all, but I would imagine that a baddie who was pushed so hard on a contentious issue would only put up a facade of a fight before acquiesing to the pressure and backing down in order to seem more "reasonable"/less lynch worthy. Llama's stubborness, and the increasing clarity with which he defins and defends his position actually make me think he's probably civ (though still possibly misguided in holding on to his recruitment theory)

Long Con/llama: I can't remember when LC voted for Dom, but I think it was fairly early?? (Please correct me if I'm wrong). I agree with many that it was a bit of a weak rationale for a vote, and seemed quite unlike LC...but I'm not sure I'm ready to vote for him yet. I don't usually find his posting or play style to be all that different from game to game regardless of his alignment, so his vociferous engagement with llama doesn't ping me as out of the ordinary. The Dom vote is weird, but I think there are other weirder things going on in the thread. As for llama, see above. I'm actually not suspicious of him, and think his exchange with LC is getting heated just because it seems to be two vocal, stubborn, and self-consciously incendiary players butting heads for the first time. If it comes down to a LC/llama tie-breaker, I'd throw my vote at LC, but I hope I don't have to.

Where I DO think I might want to throw a vote is at Vomps. I think Timmer's post was really interesting, and while I struggle to think why Tyler would recruit such a seemingly unpredictable and non-participatory player, the voting record is odd. Somewhat paradoxically, however, I ALSO find myself inclined to be a little suspicious of Timmer's sudden push for Vomps. Perhaps a case concocted to try and distract the thread from the other battles that are raging and get people's attention onto someone who, as a low poster and apparent wild card, might be an easy target and easy vote for those who are skimming through??

Long story short, I'm really really divided about Timmer/Vomps, and will probably come down on one side or another of that fence for today's vote.

[timmer]

Bea- Sorry I have not been able to get into this game at all and the style was throwing me way off with us not lynching or deaths etc. I asked to be replaced back on Day 3 tbh, and he told me to wait it out. I don't understand anything we have to go on in this game and don't understand how we are to win. So I've been coasting along and not participating because I have nothing to say and am lost. So I voted myself to get out but if you guys wanna vote me out as well I wouldn't mind. I think I may die anyway because I've been quiet.

Ugh, Boogs please don't do this. If you've got to replace out or whatever do so, I've certainly been in games where I got lost and didn't have a clue what to say or do. But don't pitch the idea of voting for you to die, I think we've got a bead on a few potential baddies here today and I'd rather we all focused on that.

[timmer]

@Canuckle, the LAST thing I'm trying to do is say "vote Vomps because he's acting weird". I know very well how many times he has been lynched for "being Vomps" over the months, and that his persona works well as both civ and baddie. If anything, I find Boomslang's end of the self-voting more pingy than Vomps, because while Vomps never says anything about his votes, Boomslang had that one weird post that didn't sound legit at all. The main thing with Vomps is the way DH came in and gave him support when he hadn't asked for it.

[Bullzeye]

@Canuckle, the LAST thing I'm trying to do is say "vote Vomps because he's acting weird". I know very well how many times he has been lynched for "being Vomps" over the months, and that his persona works well as both civ and baddie. If anything, I find Boomslang's end of the self-voting more pingy than Vomps, because while Vomps never says anything about his votes, Boomslang had that one weird post that didn't sound legit at all. The main thing with Vomps is the way DH came in and gave him support when he hadn't asked for it.

I went back and looked at your Boomslang stuff and I'm not sure what I think actually. On the one hand, yeah self-voting for something you're obviously not gonna get is weird but at the same time why not? People vote in lynches for players who're obviously not going to be lynched by that point all the time.

[timmer]

@Canuckle, the LAST thing I'm trying to do is say "vote Vomps because he's acting weird". I know very well how many times he has been lynched for "being Vomps" over the months, and that his persona works well as both civ and baddie. If anything, I find Boomslang's end of the self-voting more pingy than Vomps, because while Vomps never says anything about his votes, Boomslang had that one weird post that didn't sound legit at all. The main thing with Vomps is the way DH came in and gave him support when he hadn't asked for it.

I went back and looked at your Boomslang stuff and I'm not sure what I think actually. On the one hand, yeah self-voting for something you're obviously not gonna get is weird but at the same time why not? People vote in lynches for players who're obviously not going to be lynched by that point all the time.

In his case it's not so much that he self-voted the second time, but that he posted as if he was trying to make his vote sound legitimate. "As I did not win my fight and can fight again, I vote for me." That pings me. When you can clearly see that you aren't going to fight, posting that doesn't make sense. I'm not advocating for a Boomslang lynch over this one little thing, but I'm pointing it out as pingy. It's the kind of thing I obsess over; posts not written the way they should be, etc.

[Bullzeye]

@Canuckle, the LAST thing I'm trying to do is say "vote Vomps because he's acting weird". I know very well how many times he has been lynched for "being Vomps" over the months, and that his persona works well as both civ and baddie. If anything, I find Boomslang's end of the self-voting more pingy than Vomps, because while Vomps never says anything about his votes, Boomslang had that one weird post that didn't sound legit at all. The main thing with Vomps is the way DH came in and gave him support when he hadn't asked for it.

I went back and looked at your Boomslang stuff and I'm not sure what I think actually. On the one hand, yeah self-voting for something you're obviously not gonna get is weird but at the same time why not? People vote in lynches for players who're obviously not going to be lynched by that point all the time.

In his case it's not so much that he self-voted the second time, but that he posted as if he was trying to make his vote sound legitimate. "As I did not win my fight and can fight again, I vote for me." That pings me. When you can clearly see that you aren't going to fight, posting that doesn't make sense. I'm not advocating for a Boomslang lynch over this one little thing, but I'm pointing it out as pingy. It's the kind of thing I obsess over; posts not written the way they should be, etc.

Fair point, thanks for the clarification. I can definitely see your point of view on that but I guess I just don't see it as so big of a deal?

[thellama73]

Bea- Sorry I have not been able to get into this game at all and the style was throwing me way off with us not lynching or deaths etc. I asked to be replaced back on Day 3 tbh, and he told me to wait it out. I don't understand anything we have to go on in this game and don't understand how we are to win. So I've been coasting along and not participating because I have nothing to say and am lost. So I voted myself to get out but if you guys wanna vote me out as well I wouldn't mind. I think I may die anyway because I've been quiet.

Ugh, Boogs please don't do this. If you've got to replace out or whatever do so, I've certainly been in games where I got lost and didn't have a clue what to say or do. But don't pitch the idea of voting for you to die, I think we've got a bead on a few potential baddies here today and I'd rather we all focused on that.

Something tells me our gracious host's latest challenge will weed out a lot of the non-participants without us having to actually lynch them.

[Long Con]

As I recall, a number of people randomized that last vote. I don't think my vote for Dom was lamer than a randomization. It was practically a randomization, I just picked a player to vote for because not voting is big trouble around here. I didn't particularly suspect Dom any more or less than most of the other players, I just threw a vote his way for fun. I certainly didn't expect him to be lynched, unless a few other people at least would have voted for him, but the vote was very spread out.

[birdwithteeth11]

Bea- Sorry I have not been able to get into this game at all and the style was throwing me way off with us not lynching or deaths etc. I asked to be replaced back on Day 3 tbh, and he told me to wait it out. I don't understand anything we have to go on in this game and don't understand how we are to win. So I've been coasting along and not participating because I have nothing to say and am lost. So I voted myself to get out but if you guys wanna vote me out as well I wouldn't mind. I think I may die anyway because I've been quiet.

Ugh, Boogs please don't do this. If you've got to replace out or whatever do so, I've certainly been in games where I got lost and didn't have a clue what to say or do. But don't pitch the idea of voting for you to die, I think we've got a bead on a few potential baddies here today and I'd rather we all focused on that.

Something tells me our gracious host's latest challenge will weed out a lot of the non-participants without us having to actually lynch them.

Yeah. I think this posting challenge is a last resort for the quiet people to speak up. Last time I checked, it was 8 or 9 people who were required to follow one of the mentioned posting challenges. And if he has to kill off those people, then that would mean the host mod-killed over half the people who signed up for this game. I can understand Alex being conflicted about that, because it potentially looks bad on him as a host. But at the same time, if people have made it to Day Freaking 8 Now and still aren't posting, I don't care if 100 people are playing at this point. You need to either ask to be replaced or start participating more.

/rant

Anyway, back to the game and current day at hand...

I think I've narrowed down my list of people I am willing to vote for in this lynch. I will probably be voting tonight, because I will not have much time tomorrow morning. My brother and I are going to the Reds-Red Sox game tomorrow afternoon, and it's about an hour after the lynch ends. But as for names:

Sorsha: A likely possibility to get a vote. I already covered why in detail, and her response about what LC's theory has to do with her pings me as well. I feel like she's almost trying to draw attention to herself. Either it's that, or she really doesn't get why she is being suspected.

Llama: Slight ping. I feel like his theory relies too much on the cops not being compromised. And until I see some evidence that they aren't, I can't go along with him. Also, in b4 "you don't understand what I'm saying". Because I certainly do, but the part of your theory about the cops is the one part I can't agree with. Most likely, will not be getting a vote from me.

Long Con: Slight ping. His response to llama felt like a very "we vs. you" thing, as if he's trying to make it seem like llama is on his own little island with no support whatsoever. If anybody is trying to pull an isolation tactic, it feels like LC to me. Not to mention his Dom vote feels incredibly opportunistic to me. A likely possibility to get my vote.

Unfurl: Not getting my vote. I think I'm done looking at her for this entire game, unless her behavior changes drastically or she becomes really erratic. That area just keeps turning up dead ends for me. :P

Boogs: Not getting my vote. If he's been wanting to get replaced, hasn't yet, self-voted today, and isn't posting, I think it's more likely the host modkills him at this point. And we have far better people to examine today.

I feel like I'm forgetting someone here. But I think that's it. Right now, I'm in between Sorsha and LC though.

I have to take off again. I'm going out with family with dinner tonight, but I'll be back this evening to discuss some more and vote.

Linki: But that's the thing. It was your post that went along with it that basically admitted to it being "for fun". It read the wrong way to me.

[thellama73]

Llama: Slight ping. I feel like his theory relies too much on the cops not being compromised. And until I see some evidence that they aren't, I can't go along with him. Also, in b4 "you don't understand what I'm saying". Because I certainly do, but the part of your theory about the cops is the one part I can't agree with. Most likely, will not be getting a vote from me.

There is no part of my theory that is "about the cops." My theory is exclusively about Tyler and how he would react to the existence of cops. You don't understand what I'm saying.

[birdwithteeth11]

Llama: Slight ping. I feel like his theory relies too much on the cops not being compromised. And until I see some evidence that they aren't, I can't go along with him. Also, in b4 "you don't understand what I'm saying". Because I certainly do, but the part of your theory about the cops is the one part I can't agree with. Most likely, will not be getting a vote from me.

There is no part of my theory that is "about the cops." My theory is exclusively about Tyler and how he would react to the existence of cops. You don't understand what I'm saying.

Okay. Then I just disagree with you on how he would react to the existence of cops. So there. :P

[unfurl]

@ Unfurl - unfortunately, no. My fried brainz status is pretty never ending. If only I could find a cure.

Maybe my goal in life, should be to find a cure, but that probably will make me too normal, and I dont want that,
and also how can I find a cure for a fried brain, when I have fried brain?

When I read all the walls of text from svs -llama and LC
I come to the conclusion 3 strong personalities clashing there, and I has not idea who to trust
potatoe - potato - papa

I voted for sorsha the previous day, for her vompatti vote day 5-6, which I thought it was an easy way to hide, I still think there may be something odd about it

Not really sure what to think about Boogs anymore, his last post seems sort of honest about he being confused and overwhelmed about the game, but I still feel something weird about how his vote came in the last minute to make a tie in the previous lynch, and I dont know something itches on me, when people vote for themself in a lynch

[Bullzeye]

Turns out I may not be going away tomorrow so I might not have to vote early. In that case I'll hold onto my vote for now. It's lucky in a way because I don't know who I'd vote for - I've got so far behind in this game it's unbelievable. If things don't change I'll try to get on before I go out and hopefully find someone I can vote for. At present it would be LC because I think both Dom voters (not counting Llama - I've discussed that I no longer suspect him atm) were suspicious but I don't think Boogs would say he wants to be killed if he were a baddie.

[Roxy]

Maybe my goal in life, should be to find a cure, but that probably will make me too normal, and I dont want that,
and also how can I find a cure for a fried brain, when I have fried brain?

<3

[S~V~S]

Rough day, tough crowd in that other game, lol, gonna get dinner & a glass of wine, and settle in for some reading

[S~V~S]

Also, SVS, I wish you would devote the same amount of energy to disputing the numerous, absolutely ridiculous theories of "who Tyler can recruit" based on nothing but wild guess from people like Timmer, Hedgeowl and Long Con.

It doesn't strike you as odd that they keep saying things like "well, let's assume that Tyler can only rercuit people whose name starts with J and who were born between April and June during a full moon on leap year"? And you thought I was making too many assumptions!

OK, I don't know what was said after this so excuse me if I discuss old neews, as it were, I started at my last post.

My problem with your theory is this; you are saying that, knowing the police will check his recruits, Tyler would recruit quiet people, or less suspicious people, in order to avoid losing them to the police. I totally get it, and it makes sense.

EXCEPT...and this is a but fat EXCEPT....the one person we know for sure that he DID recruit was DH. EVERYONE suspected DH, he was in everyones face, he was mega aggressive. And unless Tyler recruited him 2 seconds after his first post, he was acting that way when he was recruited. And Tyler potentially could have recruited up to three other people before DH dies, and before INH died.

Since I did misconstrue your quiet people intentions (I really, really thought you were chasing low posters) I backed off of thinking this was a baddie ploy.

But i really want to know how you would reconcile your theory with DH being recruited.

And again, if you addressed this, sorry, but it is easier for me to address the thread as I go along.

[S~V~S]

Also, SVS, I wish you would devote the same amount of energy to disputing the numerous, absolutely ridiculous theories of "who Tyler can recruit" based on nothing but wild guess from people like Timmer, Hedgeowl and Long Con.

It doesn't strike you as odd that they keep saying things like "well, let's assume that Tyler can only rercuit people whose name starts with J and who were born between April and June during a full moon on leap year"? And you thought I was making too many assumptions!

This is a silly thing to say, and disingenuous to say the least; no one has proposed anything even remotely like this. By making this comparison, you are trying to ridicule their theories, which, as you know, I tend to view as squashing discussion. Many theories have been rather plausible, even if you do not think so. I have seen a few people try to fit their theory to their suspect, which makes me discount it to some extent, though. I think Unfurl did that with Bullz (don't recall the theory) and I think Sorsha is doing it with unfurl/canuck and the "Tyler decides the fights" theory.

But theories are the bread & butter of mafia, especially in a game like this. Your theory is a good one, well thought out. I do think thought that the one known recruit does not fit it. I am willing to reconsider it when we get new info; but DH does NOT fit the "less suspicious people" demographic. Like ever.

[thellama73]

Also, SVS, I wish you would devote the same amount of energy to disputing the numerous, absolutely ridiculous theories of "who Tyler can recruit" based on nothing but wild guess from people like Timmer, Hedgeowl and Long Con.

It doesn't strike you as odd that they keep saying things like "well, let's assume that Tyler can only rercuit people whose name starts with J and who were born between April and June during a full moon on leap year"? And you thought I was making too many assumptions!

This is a silly thing to say, and disingenuous to say the least; no one has proposed anything even remotely like this. By making this comparison, you are trying to ridicule their theories, which, as you know, I tend to view as squashing discussion. Many theories have been rather plausible, even if you do not think so. I have seen a few people try to fit their theory to their suspect, which makes me discount it to some extent, though. I think Unfurl did that with Bullz (don't recall the theory) and I think Sorsha is doing it with unfurl/canuck and the "Tyler decides the fights" theory.

But theories are the bread & butter of mafia, especially in a game like this. Your theory is a good one, well thought out. I do think thought that the one known recruit does not fit it. I am willing to reconsider it when we get new info; but DH does NOT fit the "less suspicious people" demographic. Like ever.

Here you conceded thta theories (which are by definition based on assumptions) are essential to mafia. I quite agree. That's why I was so surprised when you attacked me with such vigor for suggesting a theory based on weaker assumption than any of the other theories being proposed.

Regarding your DH question, yes, he doesn't fit the pattern He was also quickly spotted and killed. This leads me to believe that Tyler realized his mistake and started recruiting a different sort of person fairly quickly.

[S~V~S]

Day 4 is not that quickly. Even if the police are not compromised, this leaves 3 other recruitement days (if your 1 per day theory is correct) before he may have changed course due to DH dying. Which would mean max 3 (days 5-7) non suspicious recruits. I understand your point, but DH not being killed until Night 4 means it does not hold water.

Plus my guess is not a recruit every night, but a kill OR a recruit. I have seen this before. It would explain the lack of kills.

[S~V~S]

To be honest, i no longer think you are bad; I jsut think you WANT this theory to be true so much so that you are willing to overlook the potential issues with it.

You asked me about why i entertain the theories of others but not yours; this is not so, I am an equal opportunity theory hole-poker-inner. I just perhaps tend to be more polite with them since you are a "calling a spade a spade" afficionado.

Now i have to read other peoples posts, not just yours

[S~V~S]

@Bullz, no that was Typhoony who wanted to recruit you over civvieness. for me it was when we were in that side chatroom, that rabbit only put a few people in? I was "Ethan Rom", and you were pretty much the only person who showed up to talk to me. I made up this crazy crap story about I don't even remember, expalining how the baddie did something, it's a long time ago but you not only bought it, you convinced other people who weren't even in that chatroom to buy it. Thats why i wanted to recruit you.

I had the day from hell, and the night is not much better~ I did finish reading back, and hve to think about some stuff. I am not sure how I feel about some people.