I re-read how Vulgard handled the Alison/Dya dichotomy on D2 + EoD and I'm feeling reasonably good about Dya just being a hit
Vulgard wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 2:59 am
I think Alison's competent enough to do this as a wolf, but I still think she is a villager. @ Chloe
@ visor That part is weird because like. That's not what was happening day 1. Day 1 Amy had a few posts where it looked like she was pocketing dya and dya proceeded to townread her. Come today, Amy is now wolfreading Dya and Dya is townreading Amy. I'm not sure why she'd turn on someone who townreads her if she were a wolf, especially today, when far fewer people townread her. What would be the point of the day 1 thing then? It's possible she's following the thread's concerns about Dya in an effort to stay alive, but it seems counterproductive for wolf!Amy to do.
As for what it means about Dya, I don't know. I feel like townreading Amy in this situation is anti-wincon for their wolfgame, since they could just flip their read on Amy like Amy flipped her read on them. It would be justified. But then again, it literally doesn't matter to dya since dya's been insistent on pushing Alison all game. Besides, I've just checked ISOs and while Amy's shifting her read on Dya, Dya doesn't seem to be paying attention to it at all. I'm not sure if v!Dya ignores that.
There's also the fact you say Amy's wolfreading Dya, but Amy's currently voting on the same wagon as Dya.
Amy's wolfread on Alison is weird. Her only reasoning for putting her toward the bottom of her readlist (apparently) is that she isn't comfortable voting anywhere else. This was earlier during day 2. She also says that Alison is playing an underwhelming game if town. I... don't see many other explanations for why she even wolfreads Alison. She should be townreading Dya based on this mindset as well, since Dya is by far the strongest Alison pusher in this game and Amy calls an Alison vote her most comfortable vote. Her shifting her read on Dya should mean something for her Alison read as well, no? I'd be more okay with it if Amy straight up said the Alison voting was self-pres, but she claims to genuinely believe Alison is a likely wolf - yet I find it hard to find any arguments for it in her ISO. The read just looks fake and birthed from a self-preservation instinct.
Vulgard wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 3:13 am
I have the sinking feeling the wagons are v/v. I don't think Alison's a wolf but I also think dyachei's push on her came from a genuine place. I'll probably vote dyachei over Alison when it comes down to it, though, if the wagons don't change. I think my reasons for townreading them are worse than my reasons for townreading Alison.
A part of me wants Amy to get counterclaimed so that at least I wasn't wrong again.
I'm not CCing.
Vulgard wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 3:21 am
I think Alison, Arete, c4 (?), Chloe, Dizzy, Marl, Nutella, SPF (?) are villagers.
I am not as sure about dya. Zack/Visor/Sunbae are the remaining three players.
I'll 100% vote dya over Alison or Amy if she doesn't get CCed, mind you.
Vulgard wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 3:30 am
Village:
Alison
Amy (IF she doesn't get counterclaimed)
Arete
Chloe
Dizzy
Marl
Nutella
Village with reservations:
c4 (I don't understand his POV sometimes and his progression on Gavial-related reads day 1 doesn't track in a really odd way.)
staypositivefriend (I have no concrete reasons to townread her beyond just liking her posts, vibing, and internally wanting her to be town so we can solve the game together.)
Leaving:
Dya (I'm going to sheep thread consensus on this one, especially if the other alternative is still just Alison)
Sunbae
Visor
Zack
Vulgard wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 5:27 am
I'm not going to go Alison because I think she's town. And I'm not confident enough on Sunbae/Zack/Visor to go in any of those directions. Dya it is, and I hope it's a hit.
Vulgard wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 6:35 am
- Literally all my townreads are currently suspicious of Dya. Just look at the dya wagon formation.
- I think Alison is town and dya is the only current alternative. This is a less important point, because I could start a new train, but still.
- I don't want to defend a wolf for t0an like an idiot. My reasons to townread Dya are fairly nebulous. While I believe in them, I look at the arguments of several players why dya is a wolf and think they don't quite hold up. On day 1, I insisted on getting my wolfread killed above all else, despite Arete saying Gavial could've been a villager, and it backfired on me hard. It's possible dya is a wolf and I'm just not seeing it. Following the thread consensus at least this one time shouldn't cause major repercussions even if it is wrong.
Vulgard wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 1:46 pm
Both Alison and dya have done things I townread them for before, and now they are both top wagons.
People have been giving me arguments why dya is mafia. Okay.
People have been giving me arguments why Alison is mafia. Okay.
I have been wrong on Gavial and on Amy (given the lack of CC). Okay.
But I think these wagons are bad. I don't see why mafia Alison would treat Gavial like this despite knowing he would be likely to flip from how day 1 played out. She should have awareness of her own TMI as a wolf and approach accordingly.
I don't see why mafia Dya would push on Alison in the snappy way that they did. It's possible they were doing w/w theater, but I honestly struggle to see it. If they were w/w, they wouldn't play d2 like they have. They are kinda self-pressing on each other, dya is calling Alison a wolf, Alison isn't... really... calling dya a wolf back? Or maybe I missed it. If they were partners doing theater and becoming the top two wagons on day 2, I think they would continue this theater throughout the day so one would be spewed clear. Or, I don't know, do SOMETHING. It feels like both are ready to get flipped since neither is really fighting the votes on them, and it's puzzling play coming from wolves.
Why is it not puzzling play coming from villagers? ...It is. It still is. That's why I haven't been like "these are V/V wagons guaranteed, let's CFD." But this still feels wrong to me. Marl calling Alison hyperwolfy feels wrong to me. I know he has experience with her, but I do too, and we have an entirely different perspective. That's just one thing that's seemed off to me about these last ~12 hours.
My heart tells me to CFD, but I'm not sure where to go with it, and it could have disastrous results. Like hitting another PR. And after the Gavial read backfired on me for the first time ever (and after I pushed someone who is now almost certainly tracker!Amy - town PR!Amy), I'm not sure I have a great handle on this game.
I've been trying to lay low for the past few hours and read what other people were thinking. I've been trying to discuss with the players pushing for either Alison or Dya, and I feel an overwhelming level of indifference for some reason. This isn't as clear-cut to me as it seems to be to everyone else.
I'm still going to vote for one of them at EoD if I have to, just so that my vote matters, but the reason I'm not voting anyone right now is because I'm still trying to evaluate the gamestate.
Vulgard wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 9:45 am
I have to admit I'm whelmed by Alison's recent posting, even while taking into consideration the fact she's (presumably) not caught up.
Vulgard wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 12:31 pm
I call Alison a villager, then she re-enters the thread and does this.
Vulgard wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 1:00 pm
It genuinely feels like Alison's antispewing.
Reading through his posts on them, he essentially takes the angle that it's likely V/V, but that if there's a wolf in the two it's more likely to be Dya, repeatedly putting Alison as town on readlists and Dya as PoE-ish, and states multiple times that if he has to choose between the two of them, he'll vote Dya (including writing a specific case on why he thinks it's more likely to be Dya than Alison).
However, at the end of the day, he ultimately ended up on Alison:
In general, when wagons are V/V, wolves decide how to vote based on factors like 'what makes them look the least bad' and 'what's most consistent with the reads they've already expressed' and 'what they think they would do as a villager. All of which ... should lead to him voting Dya over Alison, if they are actually V/V. Like, if your choices are "vote the wagon that you've previously said you would vote in this situation, who has less votes and thus is less likely to flip V" or "vote the wagon who's probably flipping today, who you've been calling a villager and saying you won't vote" the first option is obviously going to make you look less bad. He
had expressed wavering confidence in his Alison read/said that she might be anti-spewing and her posts weren't inspiring confidence before EoD, but that only started a few hours before EoD and he could have just chosen not to build up progression to switch to Alison there if the wagons were V/V -- he has no reason to build up that reasoning beyond
maybe 'thinking he would do it as village.'
I can't actually find his vote in his Iso (I think he might have just voted in the poll?) so I can't count what the vote count was at that point/how likely it was that his vote was cast at a time that would save Dya, but I have a hard time understanding why he wouldn't just stick with every previous statement he had made and vote Dya if Dya isn't a wolf.