Everyone's JOATED: Guillo's Roles (Town Wins)

[Alison]

Btw the flavour cards are alignment indicative.

All I know is whoever stole my card gave me a terrible flavor card and I want rid of it now.

Who's flavor card do you have that is terrible?

[Scotty]

so in summary from this magnificent solving:


TH is wolf, like we expect.
Listo/nook are probably last wolves if this doesn’t end it.

Got it. Back to sleep then

Does people trying to solve a game of mafia offend you?

Not at all, I’m more rolling my eyes at you calling it some of the most effective solving you’ve done all game.

Why does me saying that cause that emotional response exactly?

FOMO I guess and I feel like I’ve done some pretty good solving prior

Yeah, it’s interesting how much that comment pissed me off. I think I’m just tired and cranky

[listo95]

Btw the flavour cards are alignment indicative.

All I know is whoever stole my card gave me a terrible flavor card and I want rid of it now.

Who's flavor card do you have that is terrible?

TH.

[MacDougall]

Hmm the cards being AI theory has too many holes in it upon second thought. Due to the swapping function.

[MacDougall]

Is there any threat to us outing all our card abilities exactly?

[Alison]

Btw the flavour cards are alignment indicative.

All I know is whoever stole my card gave me a terrible flavor card and I want rid of it now.

Who's flavor card do you have that is terrible?

TH.

So TH is scum and force swapped a shitty flavor card with you.

If your flavor card flips upon TH's death we will know that is what happened and you will be cleared.

[Alison]

Is there any threat to us outing all our card abilities exactly?

I don't think so, but they all seem to be 10% chances including mine so it seems to be taking an unnecessary risk for something we can't base a mech plan around anyway. Mine actually has a small chance of catching a careless wolf so outing it would be bad.

[Dolby]

Outting mine could be bad if wolfs don't already have it and they have a soup attempt every 3 days or something

[Scotty]

Btw the flavour cards are alignment indicative.

All I know is whoever stole my card gave me a terrible flavor card and I want rid of it now.

Who's flavor card do you have that is terrible?

TH.

So TH is scum and force swapped a shitty flavor card with you.

If your flavor card flips upon TH's death we will know that is what happened and you will be cleared.

This..actually makes sense.

Because mafia switching alignment cards within each other probably isn’t the best use of their resources

[MacDougall]

Ngl I didn't know I could try to force swap cards.

[MacDougall]

Outting mine could be bad if wolfs don't already have it and they have a soup attempt every 3 days or something

Soup can target cards?

[Scotty]

Outting mine could be bad if wolfs don't already have it and they have a soup attempt every 3 days or something

Soup can target cards?

Bastard game, so who knows

[Dolby]

Outting mine could be bad if wolfs don't already have it and they have a soup attempt every 3 days or something

Soup can target cards?

I hope not

Really got to go rn

Agree that Scotty looks good if TH flips with his flavorcard

[Scotty]

Ngl I didn't know I could try to force swap cards.

Swap clothes with me tonight mac

[Scotty]

Outting mine could be bad if wolfs don't already have it and they have a soup attempt every 3 days or something

Soup can target cards?

I hope not

Really got to go rn

Agree that Scotty looks good if TH flips with his flavorcard

You mean listo

[Dolby]

what I meant is something like they have a guess in the future and have to guess a different ability than they previously did since there could technically be more than one attempt

[Alison]

We have 2-3 wolves (most likely 3 given HK's testimony about Michelle's behavior in DVC and Ender associations) dead. With TH flipping wolf and a speculative team of 5 wolves that means that we have 3-4 wolves dead, aka 1-2 wolves alive. ​5 players (Dolby, LC, Mac, HK, myself) are mech cleared if you trust my analysis that the soup is most likely real.

I am assuming wolves shoot into one of the 5 tonight.

That will leave us 8 players alive with 4 clears. Of the 4 people who are not cleared (Scotty, listo, nanook, c4), 1-2 of them are a wolf. Unless wolves have extra KP they have been hiding up their sleeve (which would make no sense given several loud cleared town are still alive), we should have auto just mowing down this list. The only way this doesn't work is if the soup is fake but I don't think it is.

[Alison]

If listo flips with TH's card, just put him at the end of the POE of 4 and whack the other 3 first.

[Alison]

Outting mine could be bad if wolfs don't already have it and they have a soup attempt every 3 days or something

Soup can target cards?

I hope not

Really got to go rn

Agree that Scotty looks good if TH flips with his flavorcard

I doubt it since then they could all forcibly swap flavor cards with townies and soupkill them all.

[Alison]

I think Scotty's posting today has been townie. I would put him at the end of the 4 person POE. listo is townier than him if TH flips with listo's card.

c4 and nanook should be taken out first. If TH doesn't flip with listo's card we probably flip listo first to resolve that mess.

[Alison]

I said I wouldn't give a solve today but I think we have auto regardless so I'll just give it.

Here is the flowchart.

If TH flips with listo's card: Exe c4 and nanook (don't particularly care about order), then Scotty, then listo.

If TH does not flip with listo's card: Exe listo to find out what the fuck is going on, exe c4 and nanook (don't particularly care about order), then Scotty. Adjust POE based on whose flavor card listo flips with if his exe does not end the game.

I am pretty confident this is a gamewinning solve unless someone has a reason to doubt one of my clears.

[MacDougall]

Mansnicks had a 10% chance of blowing up anyone who targets them. Town. I think it might have been slightly misworded and meant to say it blows themselves up as well. If so this is marginally more townie than rand as a 10% chance of killing themselves is not good for mafia.

Falcon had a 10% chance of surviving a NK unless double targeted. Very mildly town. Shit card.

Michelle had a 10% chance of watching who they target. Quite townie actually.

Seanzie had a 20% chance of finding out how many swaps were attempted. Null probably.

TSP had a 10% chance of getting a random sane green check. Very very town.

HK had a 10% chance of resurrection but removing their abilities. Nullish. Maybe townie in the context of their JOAT powers.

Nanook had a 20% chance of getting another shot of one of their abilities. Kind of hard to tell. Died in Honey's possession. Kinda sus.

EW had a 10% chance of being able to out a killer's identity. Quite townie tbh.

Gnome had a 10% chance of disabling the mafia factional every night. Powerful town role.

LoMo had a 20% chance of neighbouring the first person that visits them with a non killing power. Towny af.

Osie had a 10% chance of disabling all the cards every night. Mafiaish.

Flea had a 10% chance of getting 2 votes. Null.

They seem to be like a little AI but maybe not given they can be swapped. They might be randomised and the mafia can end up with neg util powers and be forced to try to get rid of them maybe.

Not sure how much there is to gain from solving through them sadly.

[Alison]

The only assumption I made wrt flavor cards in my solve is that mafia are unlikely to swap flavor cards with each other. That is why I said to put listo at the back of the POE if TH flips with their card. Otherwise the AI-ness or lack thereof of flavor cards shouldn't impact anything.

[MacDougall]

I don't think they are unlikely to swap with each other by proxy. If I was mafia my card is one that would make sense to give to a mafia teammate in some contexts for instance.

[listo95]

So... What I'm understanding Alison is I should not swap that horrid card tonight?

[Alison]

So... What I'm understanding Alison is I should not swap that horrid card tonight?

If TH flips with your flavor card, you are soft cleared because I do not think scum TH would swap a card with his partner.

If TH flips with your flavor card feel free to get rid of your "horrid card" by sending it to someone else.

If TH does not flip with your flavor card then we will likely exe you to figure out what is going on with the flavor card swaps. If you are town in that scenario, do not swap your horrid card so we can better track who swapped cards (especially negative utility cards) with whom.

[Alison]

I don't think they are unlikely to swap with each other by proxy. If I was mafia my card is one that would make sense to give to a mafia teammate in some contexts for instance.

Hm.

listo claimed TH gave him a neg util card. I suppose TH could have given him a card that makes sense to give to a mafia teammate and then told him to pretend it was neg util, that way when TH flips with listo's card listo gets soft cleared.

[hollowkatt]

@hollowkatt did Honey mention anything about card swapping? She died and Nanook's card flipped.

No not that I remember, sorry

[MacDougall]

@listo95 is your card ability something that would suck in all hands? Or just in your hands?

[Alison]

That seems like a pretty convoluted gambit for TH to run but I guess we have to take it into account. Under my solve it would still leave listo in the POE just at the bottom though. We would still have enough clears to solve the game even if it takes longer with listo going last.

[Alison]

Why don't we just have listo claim the card TH gave him?

[listo95]

@listo95 is your card ability something that would suck in all hands? Or just in your hands?

It sucks for anyone who has it.

[MacDougall]

Yes. We should.

Worth mentioning that Dolby has Honey's card and she flipped with Nanooks. Nanook claims to not be responsible for either.

@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME do you have Dolby's card?

Honey might have force swapped her card with Nanook's but that wouldn't explain how Dolby ended up with it.

So either one of Dolby and Nanook are lying or someone else has a card swap role and targeted Dolby and Nanook to swap.

@Dolby I assume this swap occurred on N3? Or did you end up with Honey's card on N2?

@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME at any point did you possess Honey's card?

Sorry if this has been discussed.

[MacDougall]

@listo95 is your card ability something that would suck in all hands? Or just in your hands?

It sucks for anyone who has it.

So if TH was town it would be something he would seek to get rid of and give to his primary suspect?

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME whose card do you have?

Listo's

[MacDougall]

Also if you were mafia would you give it to a town in the POE or to a town clear? Also for you Listo.

Also just claim it probably.

[MacDougall]

@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME whose card do you have?

Listo's

Have you had any other cards at any point and what night did you get it? Did you force swap any of them?

[hollowkatt]

Btw the flavour cards are alignment indicative.

How so?

Look at Garden Gnome's card.

Wouldn't it be funny if Gnome randed mafia with that card.

[listo95]

@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME whose card do you have?

Listo's

Found the person who swapped with me on N3 then.

[MacDougall]

N2. Honey gets Nanook's card. Dies with it.

Listo has TH card. Nook has Listo's card. Dolby has Honey's card.

Hmmm.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Yes. We should.

Worth mentioning that Dolby has Honey's card and she flipped with Nanooks. Nanook claims to not be responsible for either.

@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME do you have Dolby's card?

Honey might have force swapped her card with Nanook's but that wouldn't explain how Dolby ended up with it.

So either one of Dolby and Nanook are lying or someone else has a card swap role and targeted Dolby and Nanook to swap.

@Dolby I assume this swap occurred on N3? Or did you end up with Honey's card on N2?

@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME at any point did you possess Honey's card?

Sorry if this has been discussed.

I started with mine, was sent triple's (not my doing), sent it to listo now I have his (that one i did do) (suck it listo)

[listo95]

@listo95 is your card ability something that would suck in all hands? Or just in your hands?

It sucks for anyone who has it.

So if TH was town it would be something he would seek to get rid of and give to his primary suspect?

I could see giving it to your primary suspect. I had planned to give it to Nanook tonight.

Also if you were mafia would you give it to a town in the POE or to a town clear? Also for you Listo.

Also just claim it probably.

If I was a wolf I would give this to a town clear slot.

[hollowkatt]

The thing about the soup being fake theory is that it requires mafia to actually have a pretty good attempt at working out what my role is, read into LC's doctor soft, and then use those things to try to make their fake soup more convincing rather than, you know, actually souping us and getting free KP. According to Mac the Ascetic guess on him was correct and Dolby's guess was correct as well. Mafia had a bunch of information to genuinely soup on and with Ender being run up that day it makes more sense for them to try to end the game than go for a bluff play.

If the soup was fake, where is the real soup? Why is Dolby not dead after blasting Ender in the face with a claimed ability? Why is Mac not dead?

Or HK. Yes I concur.

Flea I get killing but who kills LoMo and why? I think that thinking about that might be good?

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

I have to check but I think I was sent triples on n2

I'm not gonna check right now but I will later

Iirc i got triples n2 and sent it to listo n3, I have to match time stamps tho

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

@listo95 is your card ability something that would suck in all hands? Or just in your hands?

It sucks for anyone who has it.

So if TH was town it would be something he would seek to get rid of and give to his primary suspect?

I could see giving it to your primary suspect. I had planned to give it to Nanook tonight.

Also if you were mafia would you give it to a town in the POE or to a town clear? Also for you Listo.

Also just claim it probably.

If I was a wolf I would give this to a town clear slot.

Don't bother lol

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

I'm not gonna say more than that

[MacDougall]

The thing about the soup being fake theory is that it requires mafia to actually have a pretty good attempt at working out what my role is, read into LC's doctor soft, and then use those things to try to make their fake soup more convincing rather than, you know, actually souping us and getting free KP. According to Mac the Ascetic guess on him was correct and Dolby's guess was correct as well. Mafia had a bunch of information to genuinely soup on and with Ender being run up that day it makes more sense for them to try to end the game than go for a bluff play.

If the soup was fake, where is the real soup? Why is Dolby not dead after blasting Ender in the face with a claimed ability? Why is Mac not dead?

Or HK. Yes I concur.

Flea I get killing but who kills LoMo and why? I think that thinking about that might be good?

I think it was a redirect. I ended the prior day voting LoMo. I think a town redirector moved the kill off me or Alison and onto LoMo.

[hollowkatt]

The thing about the soup being fake theory is that it requires mafia to actually have a pretty good attempt at working out what my role is, read into LC's doctor soft, and then use those things to try to make their fake soup more convincing rather than, you know, actually souping us and getting free KP. According to Mac the Ascetic guess on him was correct and Dolby's guess was correct as well. Mafia had a bunch of information to genuinely soup on and with Ender being run up that day it makes more sense for them to try to end the game than go for a bluff play.

If the soup was fake, where is the real soup? Why is Dolby not dead after blasting Ender in the face with a claimed ability? Why is Mac not dead?

Or HK. Yes I concur.

Flea I get killing but who kills LoMo and why? I think that thinking about that might be good?

I think it was a redirect. I ended the prior day voting LoMo. I think a town redirector moved the kill off me or Alison and onto LoMo.

I was thinking that might have been possible.

I'm gonna go check if there was a redirect in the last joated game

[MacDougall]

N2 Honey gets Nook's card. Nook gets TH's card. Dolby gets Honey's card. Neither Nook or Dolby claim it. Honey didn't do it or she would have told HK in DVC. The default swap chance is very low so for all these to go off is odd.
N3 Nook swaps it with Listo and again succeeds against the odds.

TH therefore has Dolby's card?

Someone has an ability to make all card swaps succeed and used it n2? Possibly a passive of someone's?

@Dolby should we be concerned if TH has your card?

[Alison]

It's worth noting that LoMo actually claimed a role in the thread before he died.

@hollowkatt @TonyStarkPrime If you have any important info please share it in a single post in your chat.

This is a blatant as day medium claim and LoMo is very clearly not the kind of player to lie about his role for gambit purposes.

Yet he was taken out during the night and not via soupkill. This is another reason to believe that the soupkill attempt is real and mafia legitimately does not have a soupkill left.