The Molly Maguires Mafia (ENDGAME)

#1301

Which makes Wilgy town actually.

It probably makes him town also because I think if his partner is Luckbox he just lies down and dies rather than go super saiyan just to redirect the exe to his partner.

#1302

That Wilgy townclear only applies tomorrow though. In F3 he should still be considered.

#1303

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Dec 17, 2021 7:51 am Actually you had some clearing interactions with LB too.

Everyone had except Wilgy though.

Maybe we should just turbo Wilgy D3 to prove there's a busser and then reeval in LyLo

Please stop saying this every night. Idk if my heart can handle the pressure.

#1304

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Dec 17, 2021 8:14 am oh yay esooa is doing completely useless anti town things to amuse herself how good

I feel that if Esooa was Luckbox's teammate, they were in a pretty open position to move to my hard proposed counter wagon.

Honestly Ender as well.

I don't think that Esooa was in a good enough position to risk losing the teammate though. I feel like that may not have been the bus.

#1305

Why were you against the LB exe?

#1306

Everyone besides me was ok with this yeet. Even LB didn't vote.

Does Mac just sit in an off wagon, or would he have attempted to join the bus in this scenario?

Ender/Esooa we're both potentially in too peculiar position to bus, unless that was THE PLAN.

I could see that in Ender over Esooa, but I did never finish that ISO.

#1307

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Dec 17, 2021 10:13 am Why were you against the LB exe?

Out of all the ISOs I got through, while the thinnest, I had the easiest time reading it from a town perspective.

While my reading seems to need a readjustment, my general fear with LB is that if we were wrong on the yeet, our information would be very much stifled going into D5. If we had removed a more vocal player, we could have hit a wolf or eliminated more sketchy team pairs from the PoE. I think that a town state as was, would have been very easy to fall into a 1-2 game on a low poster misyeet.

#1308

Good answer

#1309

I think it makes sense for wilgy who is feeling like he is being railroaded into an sleepwalked exe to be paranoid that the same is happening to lb

#1310

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Dec 17, 2021 10:30 am I think it makes sense for wilgy who is feeling like he is being railroaded into an sleepwalked exe to be paranoid that the same is happening to lb

Eh, I didn't make that association.

I think this is a game philosophy. Hustles feel like a game of percentages and logic puzzle vs power games where there are factors that outright disrupt the numbers game. Town wins by getting the percent chance to win as close to 100% as possible. It is scum's job to disrupt that.

Effective communication on thoughts and a push to weed out scum increases the chance for town. Gaining information from association via flips increases the chance for town. Removing team based PoE increases chance for town. Hitting one of the two wolves increases the chance immensely.

Had LB flipped town, the percent change between D2 and N2 would have been minimal. Had you flipped town, the percent change between D2 and N2 would have been greater than LB. LB flipping wolf greatly increased our chance but prior to the flip, it was not the safest option for town.

I think this naturally results in me wishing to flip a more vocal wolf and win off that when the percent chance to win is at it's highest in D3-D4.

#1311

So from my reviews yesterday:
Alison LB not W/W
LB Esooa not W/W
LB and LC not W/W

And I don't think it makes sense for Ender to bus when they did. I was more than an easy enough yeet.

Like it's literally just Mac, which makes sense because Mac or Alison was needing to be resolved anyhow. I think the LB flip presolves that.

If I am wrong, I think I'm wrong on Alison, but that just may be tinfoil at this point. Will probably do Ender ISO at lunch to see if my thoughts on them are valid.

#1312

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Dec 17, 2021 10:59 am
Alison wrote: ↑Fri Dec 17, 2021 10:30 am I think it makes sense for wilgy who is feeling like he is being railroaded into an sleepwalked exe to be paranoid that the same is happening to lb
Eh, I didn't make that association.

I think this is a game philosophy. Hustles feel like a game of percentages and logic puzzle vs power games where there are factors that outright disrupt the numbers game. Town wins by getting the percent chance to win as close to 100% as possible. It is scum's job to disrupt that.

Effective communication on thoughts and a push to weed out scum increases the chance for town. Gaining information from association via flips increases the chance for town. Removing team based PoE increases chance for town. Hitting one of the two wolves increases the chance immensely.

Had LB flipped town, the percent change between D2 and N2 would have been minimal. Had you flipped town, the percent change between D2 and N2 would have been greater than LB. LB flipping wolf greatly increased our chance but prior to the flip, it was not the safest option for town.

I think this naturally results in me wishing to flip a more vocal wolf and win off that when the percent chance to win is at it's highest in D3-D4.

Oh, also just to add where I think I'd go with the information: I think had you flipped town, I would've turbo'd Mac and never moved.

#1313

I'm back to suspecting Wilgy because all that felt like a crock of shit. Since when do you think in terms of percentages and numbers, and why would you turbo Mac if I flipped town when I've been consistently pro-Mac?

#1314

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Dec 17, 2021 12:40 pm I'm back to suspecting Wilgy because all that felt like a crock of shit. Since when do you think in terms of percentages and numbers, and why would you turbo Mac if I flipped town when I've been consistently pro-Mac?

Always? Mafia has always been a logic puzzle where pieces need to be loved into appropriate place. These are the lines I look for. Perhaps it's only now expressible as such because this is the 2nd hustle.

You being pro Mac doesn't determine Mac's alignment. It's more so the thread weight you two carry. I think that there's a wolf between you two. I couldn't determine as to who previously and even entertained the idea you two were W/W. While that was wrong, I think a wolf between you two still makes sense.

The whole Mac V Alison thing early.
You two being claimed to be cleared by iaafr's nk.

#1315

Why do those things guarantee a wolf between us two?

#1316

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Dec 17, 2021 2:13 pm Why do those things guarantee a wolf between us two?

Guarantee no, make much more likely, yes.

Because I think it's much more likely that these events were manipulated by someone with information rather than not. They carried too much weight for dumb townies to do so. Do I know who's responsible, not really. Am I willing to guess one of the two focal point players? yes.

This is also not without context. I believe that your ISOs reflect the above as well.

#1317

Why can't me and Mac just be loud townies who people listen to?

#1318

wilgous

#1319

@Alison
@DrWilgy
@EnderWiggin
@Esooa
@Lime Coke
@MacDougall

When looking over the notes left by their fallen ally, the Reading Railroad believed that James Carroll posed the biggest threat out of all of the Mollies. After paying off any potential witnesses that could testify against them, they sent an agent to Mauch Chunk to pose as a watchman while Carroll would return home from the mines. As Carroll was walking home, he saw someone he thought he recognized - and the next thing he knew, he was staring down a rifle. As Carroll lay dying, the agent left an AOH insignia at the scene in an attempt to frame one of the Mollies. At least the newspapers they had paid off would buy the stories, and that's all that matters.

leetic wrote: ↑Sat Dec 11, 2021 9:58 pm

You are James Carroll! You were convicted for the murder of night watchman Benjamin Yost in one of the most screwed-up trials in American history. This is because Yost's actual murderer testified in the prosecution, and despite his wife testifying against him, a mistrial was declared due to a juror's death. In the next trial, the testimony that would've exonerated you couldn't be used, and you ended up being hanged because of a murder you didn't commit. To make it worse, the key witness against the Maguires, who was on the mine owners' payroll, was engaged to the sister of the murderer, preventing any justice from occurring. You are one of the Molly Maguires and win when the moles of the Pinkerton Detective Agency have been rooted out and eliminated.

Spoiler: show

Before they headed to the mines for the day, the remaining Mollies noticed that their numbers were thinning, and that the local newspapers were all printing stories with exaggerated reports of their violence that falsely accused them of murder. Now, some of the officials in the Reading Railroad were openly calling for them all to be hanged, and they knew that if they didn't stick together, they'd all be picked off easily.

It is now D3, which will last for 48 hours and ends on 12/19 at 11pm ETC.

#1320

lmao omg

#1321

wilgous

#1322

[VOTE: DrWilgy] aubergine

#1323

That clears somethin for me.

Don't know how to read the Alison WIFOM on that.

#1324

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Dec 17, 2021 2:50 pm Why can't me and Mac just be loud townies who people listen to?

I mean, you can, that's just not how I interpret it.

#1325

So why are you not snapvoting me now that mac has flipped town?

#1326

Now that Akemi Homura Mafia has ended I can say that I scumread Wilgy's catchup because it seemed like the kind of stuff he did in Akemi Homura, just spam the thread with surface level takes in the hopes of getting volume cleared

#1327

Alison wrote: ↑Sat Dec 18, 2021 12:28 am Now that Akemi Homura Mafia has ended I can say that I scumread Wilgy's catchup because it seemed like the kind of stuff he did in Akemi Homura, just spam the thread with surface level takes in the hopes of getting volume cleared

Wondering if you were waiting to make comparisons.

What would a town who's catching up look like then?

#1328

Alison wrote: ↑Sat Dec 18, 2021 12:27 am So why are you not snapvoting me now that mac has flipped town?

Like I advised in the post above. Too much WIFOM to digest here.

#1329

Like, this is fun. Everyone besides me voted LB, so I probably just need to restart my ISO's considering my non W/W reads were incorrect.

#1330

I don't believe that you believe that I felt so threatened by your push on me that I killed Mac just to WIFOM your theory

#1331

I can't believe Mac died lmao

#1332

I was actually wavering on my read on Mac but thankfully that doesn't have to be reviewed.

#1333

Alison wrote: ↑Sat Dec 18, 2021 12:36 am I don't believe that you believe that I felt so threatened by your push on me that I killed Mac just to WIFOM your theory

Threatened? Goodness no. A desire to troll and mess with me? Perhaps.

Even further a safe way to get into a smooth F3? While I can't see the line there may be some ahead thinking.

That may not be your MO tho. If it's based on how this was a meme kill alone, then maybe Esooa?

#1334

[VOTE: Esooa] aubergine

Free wolf pelts. Free wolf pelts.

#1335

Alison wrote: ↑Sat Dec 18, 2021 12:28 am Now that Akemi Homura Mafia has ended I can say that I scumread Wilgy's catchup because it seemed like the kind of stuff he did in Akemi Homura, just spam the thread with surface level takes in the hopes of getting volume cleared

I'm pretty sure it's Esooa but I'll give benefit of the doubt and read this when I'm home in the evening.

#1336

enders posts are annoying so I'm voting him

#1337

he's also had the same reads since day 1

#1338

EnderWiggin wrote: ↑Sat Dec 18, 2021 6:55 pm [VOTE: Esooa] aubergine

Free wolf pelts. Free wolf pelts.

based on your lazy super shitty tunnel on someone you're pretending is impossible to read

#1339

@Alison ender is being a bitch and can't do anything but vote me so I'm forcing votes between us because I feel like it

#1340

I'm not coming back to this thread ftr

#1341

before night phase

#1342

Hey, it's a new experience, never got to tunnel you before.

#1343

Esooa wrote: ↑Sat Dec 18, 2021 7:33 pm he's also had the same reads since day 1

I mean, returned to them multiple times after trying other options but yeah, I'll admit, this was my EOD 1 reads and I'll stick to em.

#1344

bruh you literally came up with one half baked reason to wolf read me day 1 and you literally haven't thought about the game since

#1345

Esooa wrote: ↑Sat Dec 18, 2021 7:35 pm
EnderWiggin wrote: ↑Sat Dec 18, 2021 6:55 pm [VOTE: Esooa] aubergine

Free wolf pelts. Free wolf pelts.
based on your lazy super shitty tunnel on someone you're pretending is impossible to read

Nah. Not impossible. I've just had a bad time of it in the past.

I have had a very good rate on LC (I should probably check this to make sure I'm not wrecking myself but I'm also pretty sure he's town rn.)

A decent rate on Alison.

Wilgy is the one I'm a bit iffy about my ability to read them which is why I'm gonna double-check Alison's stuff first.

#1346

I honestly don't give a fuck if you're town and I make town lose the game but I'm never moving my vote off you until one of us is dead cause I'm tired of it

#1347

closing the page now so bye

#1348

Tbh same.

#1349

Dont make me play on my birthday cmon.

#1350

Can you summarize the Esooa case? FMPOV she buried LB and got the Mac seal of approval for most of the game. The only person who scumread her was Kami and Kami TRed LB so I dunno if she can be trusted. I read Esooa by results a lot and a 50% pelt rate isn't too bad for her.

This is your last shot. Who is behind all the murders?