The Syndicate

dunya wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:32 am Also something I notice scum do is use phrases already used that was responded to positively. Tutuu already talked about "nice energy" and rej picked it up and uses it too.

Putting Rej in my scummy pile with LC and Carot.

Dragomir wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:35 am

dunya wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:32 am Also something I notice scum do is use phrases already used that was responded to positively. Tutuu already talked about "nice energy" and rej picked it up and uses it too.

Putting Rej in my scummy pile with LC and Carot.

Carot has one post from what I recall. Why is he(or she?) bad?

Dragomir wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:29 am

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:25 am okay, I think we assign the four most scummy people on day 1 to use their protect on Nutella. I think that's the optimal day 1 strat. If anyone wants to use a bunker on another target, they should do so in secret.

Explain to me the benefits of this strategy as well as the possible drawbacks.

dunya wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:34 am

Dragomir wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:30 am

dunya wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:24 am I think we should have at least 3 people saving nutella on any given day. The rest can be up to whatever people wanna do and leave it as a mystery for the aliens to misfire. Hunting through nk is hard at this stage if we want to preserve saves. So we can do regular hunting and I think we already have lots of good content to go through.

How do we go about selecting those 3 ppl?

Tony thinks our scummiest 4 should protect her. We coordinate that itt. I understand why, but my scummiest 4 could be the whole maf team gg y'all ;p but yeah, for a day 1 strategy it makes most sense.

Dragomir wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:41 am Tho thinking about it now, if one or more of the 4 scummiest players are town, mafia won't try to kill Nutella since it'd be futile. So I can see a benefit there for town reads.

dunya wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:37 am

Dragomir wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:35 am

dunya wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:32 am Also something I notice scum do is use phrases already used that was responded to positively. Tutuu already talked about "nice energy" and rej picked it up and uses it too.

Putting Rej in my scummy pile with LC and Carot.

Carot has one post from what I recall. Why is he(or she?) bad?

It's a she. She made a post and it does not give me any indication of game solving. Plus, it seems overextended in trying to look nice and unscummy. Your entrance post was just as uninformative, but it was unbiased. I null read u for that, but count -1 ok carot till I see more.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:43 am That's all of the necessary mechanics talk today.

Dragomir wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:43 am

dunya wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:37 am

Dragomir wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:35 am

dunya wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:32 am Also something I notice scum do is use phrases already used that was responded to positively. Tutuu already talked about "nice energy" and rej picked it up and uses it too.

Putting Rej in my scummy pile with LC and Carot.

Carot has one post from what I recall. Why is he(or she?) bad?

It's a she. She made a post and it does not give me any indication of game solving. Plus, it seems overextended in trying to look nice and unscummy. Your entrance post was just as uninformative, but it was unbiased. I null read u for that, but count -1 ok carot till I see more.

Do you expect players to come right off the bat with game solving in their entry post?

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Mon Jun 22, 2020 8:55 pm

nutella was chosen to be the Laser Gun Operator

dunya wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:44 am

Dragomir wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:43 am

dunya wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:37 am

Dragomir wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:35 am

dunya wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:32 am Also something I notice scum do is use phrases already used that was responded to positively. Tutuu already talked about "nice energy" and rej picked it up and uses it too.

Putting Rej in my scummy pile with LC and Carot.

Carot has one post from what I recall. Why is he(or she?) bad?

It's a she. She made a post and it does not give me any indication of game solving. Plus, it seems overextended in trying to look nice and unscummy. Your entrance post was just as uninformative, but it was unbiased. I null read u for that, but count -1 ok carot till I see more.

Do you expect players to come right off the bat with game solving in their entry post?

No, but Carot was online until i went to bed. I expect some reactions and developments, especially as I prodded her. I didnt get that, so she can keep LC and Rej company in my list for now

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:42 am Game game, game game game.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:33 am

dunya wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:27 am

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:25 am okay, I think we assign the four most scummy people on day 1 to use their protect on Nutella. I think that's the optimal day 1 strat. If anyone wants to use a bunker on another target, they should do so in secret.

Least scummy or most scummy? I think you mean most and I think I know what you mean by that strategy but pls confirm lol

most. bottom of the poe. They're probably either going to be taken out by lasers or shot by aliens looking to avoid protects

tutuu wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 5:05 am im confirmed derp cleared town. i was towny regardless. haters can eat my dab

Dragomir wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 5:06 am

tutuu wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 5:05 am im confirmed derp cleared town. i was towny regardless. haters can eat my dab

Where's the derp clear?

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 5:06 am not only do they not win by parity but it's not even particularly the end of the world if we have enough doctors left. 2-2 might be harder. but tutuu you're missing the point: other bunkers are free to use their doctors to protect whoever they'd like if they see fit, and if they don't feel like using a doctor they don't have to.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 5:07 am

Dragomir wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 5:06 am

tutuu wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 5:05 am im confirmed derp cleared town. i was towny regardless. haters can eat my dab

Where's the derp clear?

thinking game ends at parity. it's wehatever

tutuu wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 5:12 am Gut reaction i like tony plan most

Slight counterargument is that if we suck and there are a lot of towns in our bottom poe, mid and late game we will be left with dead consensus townread towns who didnt have to waste saves on nutella and living sketchy towns who used up their saves

So its kinda like going all in on betting thay our consensus poe is good? Thats not even inherently bad im just saying

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 5:16 am

tutuu wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 5:12 am Gut reaction i like tony plan most

Slight counterargument is that if we suck and there are a lot of towns in our bottom poe, mid and late game we will be left with dead consensus townread towns who didnt have to waste saves on nutella and living sketchy towns who used up their saves

So its kinda like going all in on betting thay our consensus poe is good? Thats not even inherently bad im just saying

betting on having a good poe is something I'm willing to do in all mafia games.

tutuu wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 5:13 am the game doesnt end if maf reaches parity drago

r u also derping? id believe u tbh

protocultures wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 5:22 am Hello fellow players. First forum game for me, I am a fairly new mafia player but have played on DM a few times and play the occasional voice/text game over discord. I live in GMT timezone so will probably be out of sync with a lot of you. I draft in word and paste into the forum so hopefully the formatting doesn’t go into the toilet. As editing posts is forbidden, I may repost if this turns out to be a problem.

The setup is new to me, so I will state a brief understanding of how this works below. If other people have a different view/better understanding, it would be great if people (or the mod) could let me know.

10 bunkers with 4 saves each who don’t know anything other than Nutella is the Laser.

4 aliens who have perfect information.

Odd nights – 1 alien KP.

Even nights – 2 alien KP till 2.

QUESTION – if player x saves themselves, or player y saves player x, and the town laser is shot at player x, does the laser go through the bunker save?

QUESTION – This is a day 0 start, so does laser get to shoot at the end of Day 0? Does it go to Night 0 or Night 1? This is important to work out alien KP and how many saves should be on Nutella.

QUESTION – can aliens no shoot in the night?

I feel like there is a mathematically optimal solution to this game for every night but I am not smart enough to figure it out.

My proposal for Night 0 or Night 1, depending on which it will be is set out below.

We want the minimum number of saves on Nutella but with some math behind it. These saves should be selected and made public by Nutella and all players who are nominated by Nutella to save Nutella should indeed save Nutella with no exceptions. They need to confirm receipt of the message and confirm they will save Nutella, or Nutella needs to re-nominate someone who has seen their request. This should be entirely elected by Nutella and not depend on people saying they will save Nutella – ie picking into Dunya/Epignosis without rnging them is bad.

The other players should make their saves or no saves in secret, but claim them at the start of the next day along with reasons. Town should never lie about their saves in the night and I am a firm believer of laser all liars in this setup.
If aliens have 1 night KP, I suggest 3 nominated saves and if aliens have 2 night KP, I suggest 4 nominated saves.
See some napkin math below which might be wrong, but lets see if I can still remember combinatronics.
1 Alien KP – need to ensure we land AT LEAST 1 town save, so this is basically any outcome except 3 aliens in the 3 nominations. This is 1 minus (4/14 x 3/13 x 2/12) = 1 – 24/2184 = 98.9% Laser lives through the night. I can accept a 1.1% loss in first night if the benefit is that we get to not waste additional bunker saves.
2 Alien KP – need to ensure we land AT LEAST 2 town saves. This gets a bit harder so please flame me loudly if there is an error in the math so we can try and fix it before we nominate saves (assuming I can get laser and town to buy into my plan).
With 4 nominations, there are 5 outcomes with the following distribution:

4 aliens: 4/14 x 3/13 x 2/12 x 1/11 = 24/24,024 = 0.1% (we lose first night with no saves on Nutella)

3 aliens, 1 town: 4/14 x 3/13 x 2/12 x 10/11 x 4 combos = 960/24,024 = 4 % (we lose first night with 1 saves on Nutella)

2 aliens, 2 town: 4/14 x 3/13 x 10/12 x 9/11 x 6 combos = 6,480/24,024 = 27% (we land 2 saves on
Nutella)

1 alien, 3 town: 10/14 x 9/13 x 8/12 x 4/11 x 4 combos = 11,520/24,024 = 48% (we land 3 saves on Nutella)

4 town: 10/14 x 9/13 x 8/12 x 7/11 = 5,040 /24,024 = 21% (we land 4 saves on Nutella)

I am okay with 4.1% loss in first night.

My current reads/leanings. Cant necessarily justify them all, because its not always rational or justifiable. Its just how their posts make my gut feel.

Alison – hard town. Thinks Epignosis is alien, and agree re full list of saves being anti town.

Bimbo – no posts.

Carotenoid – light alien read for the short intro. Good to know Mac would agree.

Dragomir – null to light town.

Dyslexicon – null to alien for no solve in 3 posts. “game” doesn’t count and I believe is just to appear non-coaster.

Dunya – started off towny, but then slips into hard alien with the later posts. Implied statement that Carotenoid is town “Can't wait to see your super shiny townies self! ”, and the hard tunnel onto LC at the start of day 0. Might be a meta thing I just have no idea but could also just be distancing. Then claims laser will be fine because Dunya/Epi will be using their save onto the laser. “2 people. You'll be fine. I promise. Epi and dun got ur back gurl”. This would be fine if they were both exactly town, but how does anyone else know they are both town? We don’t. “We publicly make a list of who protects who. When someone dies we know who lied” – this is also super alien. We should mix the saves into public and private so the aliens do not have perfect info on saves. Dunya in later posts moves back into town. My head hurts.

Epignosis – hard alien – it’s a vibe thing, cant explain it.

Long Con – Alien. Cant believe they called themselves a bunkerman instead of a bunker person. Consider myself triggered. Gets slightly town for thinking that having no saves left day 5 onward is bad but not that much. “We have to assume the aliens will try to kill nutella every night. We will non-randomly arrange protects to ensure, and insure, that she has multiple layers of protection each night. We will do this in a way that eliminates the possibility of unfortuitously picking all aliens to protect her.” Seems towny but to eliminate the possibility of picking all aliens, we need to use a LOT of bunker saves every even night. Also thinks aliens will be trying to kill the laser every night. I hard disagree and think aliens will leave the laser alone all game since its way easier to kill all the bunkers and win that way. On a meta read without ever having played with them, I simply don’t believe someone with 13k posts would think the aliens would be trying to kill the laser every night.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME – light town for thinking a protection scheme can/should exist. Does not want rng factors into the saves onto Nutella and prefers a set scheme TBC. The arguments with tutu re “trolling” seems town on town to me.

Nutella – LASER

Protocultures – the towniest town that ever towned in the history of townhood

Rej – thinks Dunya, Alison and Tutuu are town GTH. No idea what GTH means but I kinda like their town circle.

Soneji – null to very very light town for having looked into strategies as could have done it for either alignment.

TonyStarkPrime – Null to alien. The strategy of 4 most scummy players onto Laser is bad since if we get 3+ aliens, we insta lose. I much prefer a random 4 than we pick the 4 scummiest, especially since aliens will then try to look scummy intentionally.

Tutuu - Medium town. Wants to know if laser gets to shoot Day 0. Wants town to mass rng saves onto the laser and thinks its okay to lose a non-zero percentage on first night to increase overall town win percentage by not blowing all the bunker saves the first 4 days. I agree with this concept. Tutu thinks Dunya is light town and LongCon is town. I think its weird that Tutuu reads LongCon as town for subjectively incorrect logic, but it seems genuine.