The Syndicate

The interesting thing to me about this game state is that, if there's an unhealthy collection of town players in the my general "POE" (not sure what's even consensus at the moment, so I will just refer to my own), SPF as the kill target makes "deep" mafia prospects a rather blurry thing. There are four of them after all, and it becomes pretty impossible to view the game coherently without there being at least one player pulling shenanigans. SPF would have likely been a popular target for the conspiracy theory.

We need a POE pool of 6 with all 4 mafia in it. That equates to needing 6 town reads (not including either oneself or SPF). At the moment that feels like a steep number to achieve. Quick exercise for anyone willing to engage:

If you had to bank the game on four people being town not including SPF, who would you choose?

interesting stuff. i have some immediate thoughts about why i may have been poisoned, but i'm going to keep them to myself for now. it's kind of nice that i get to spend these 48 hours hunting with no tinfoil/suspicion against me whatsoever, minus the dying at the end of the day part :P

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:56 pm We need a POE pool of 6 with all 4 mafia in it. That equates to needing 6 town reads (not including either oneself or SPF). At the moment that feels like a steep number to achieve. Quick exercise for anyone willing to engage:

If you had to bank the game on four people being town not including SPF, who would you choose?

I just answered this myself, and it proved to be kind of agonizing. That's not the most encouraging thing. I will refrain from sharing my own answer to my own exercise until I get some other takes.

I'm just going to say the bit I foreshadowed before about Johanna. I think it's important we open the communication and just get to the solve, more than trying to pull moves.

Johanna didn't consider the possibility that SPF was the poison target because, at least in part, it would be an effective watcher-dodge.

I think I like that? Question mark? Her examination of the kill as a "surprising" one and consideration of the motivations seemed believable enough, and that she didn't include what I view as a top mafia priority in her thinking would be a decent thing. I realize there's WIFOM in this, but who cares.

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:56 pm interesting stuff. i have some immediate thoughts about why i may have been poisoned, but i'm going to keep them to myself for now. it's kind of nice that i get to spend these 48 hours hunting with no tinfoil/suspicion against me whatsoever, minus the dying at the end of the day part :P

What's your current perspective/confidence level regarding ilario?

Eh... If I had t'pick 4 people. Now that's really tough, but I'm gonna say right now it'd have to be...

Dizzy
Jimmy
Ilario

and for the fourth... I'm not too certain here. Maybe someone I haven't looked into too much but got good vibes from like Dolby or heck, even Johanna. That might be jumpin' the gun though. I think I'll slot Dolby in there.

I told you so

I voted.

Dolby + TSP + the PRs, that's 5/6 of my quota for town reads @JaggedJimmyJay. So that's an easy 6 for you.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:31 pm Dolby + TSP + the PRs, that's 5/6 of my quota for town reads @JaggedJimmyJay. So that's an easy 6 for you.

Remember that one of those non-vanilla players cannot claim; they don't know they're a thing. That would be four though, sure. Thanks.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:33 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:31 pm Dolby + TSP + the PRs, that's 5/6 of my quota for town reads @JaggedJimmyJay. So that's an easy 6 for you.

Remember that one of those non-vanilla players cannot claim; they don't know they're a thing. That would be four though, sure. Thanks.

I mean, that and the fact that I'm obviously lock town for yesterday, Sig flip. If you don't see it, then you're probably just mafia, because I don't think you're bad.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:34 pm I mean, that and the fact that I'm obviously lock town for yesterday, Sig flip. If you don't see it, then you're probably just mafia, because I don't think you're bad.

I didn't realize you were referring to yourself.

You're not obviously lock anything to me (nor is anyone, I think that kind of language tends to be silly), but I'll take that into consideration.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:37 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:34 pm I mean, that and the fact that I'm obviously lock town for yesterday, Sig flip. If you don't see it, then you're probably just mafia, because I don't think you're bad.

I didn't realize you were referring to yourself.

You're not obviously lock anything to me (nor is anyone, I think that kind of language tends to be silly), but I'll take that into consideration.

I mean...

I pushed against the Sig wagon
I pushed on a Sig voter (who randomly was trying to put off the blame for his vote)

I get that you might be like, yeah but you could just theater... Yeah, but then look at the level of effort that I put into this game overall, and ask if I would really be bothered to do that shit as mafia just for the sake of the exact same outcome.

I think it's JJJ and Sloonei

*shrug*

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:39 pm @falcon45ca and @TonyStarkPrime

Each of you voiced town reads on sig at different points of Day 1. Could you please just state or restate in basic terms what made you feel that way? If your feelings changed before EOD go ahead and say so.

Sure thing.

My read on sig was based off a GTH gut feels. His posting didn't seem agenda based, like he wasn't working an angle. Kind of a je nais se quois, if that makes sense?

Like JJJ's post yesterday of "let's get 2 misses before we consider re-evaluation sounded a lot like, let's get 2 kills before we start talking about my slot, and my partners"

Add Falcon to my town circle, never rescinding on Falcon, Dolby, TSP town reads.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:41 pm Like JJJ's post yesterday of "let's get 2 misses before we consider re-evaluation sounded a lot like, let's get 2 kills before we start talking about my slot, and my partners"

That's not what I said. I was asked about 2 misses.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:42 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:41 pm Like JJJ's post yesterday of "let's get 2 misses before we consider re-evaluation sounded a lot like, let's get 2 kills before we start talking about my slot, and my partners"

That's not what I said. I was asked about 2 misses.

*shrug*

I don't remember the context to be honest, just a few words of the post. I'd still kill you for it. And for your lack of reasonable town reads coming into today.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:39 pm I mean...

I pushed against the Sig wagon
I pushed on a Sig voter (who randomly was trying to put off the blame for his vote)

I get that you might be like, yeah but you could just theater... Yeah, but then look at the level of effort that I put into this game overall, and ask if I would really be bothered to do that shit as mafia just for the sake of the exact same outcome.

I don't really care about "theater", and I am not sure what you mean by that. I frankly don't understand the rationale you're giving me here. Why can't a mafioso voice a town read on sig or voice suspicion of a sig voter?

JJJ is just busy for the sake of being busy, his posting D1 felt the same tbh, no substance.

I would also kill Sloonei.

I will probably die today.

Town loss, let's go.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:43 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:42 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:41 pm Like JJJ's post yesterday of "let's get 2 misses before we consider re-evaluation sounded a lot like, let's get 2 kills before we start talking about my slot, and my partners"

That's not what I said. I was asked about 2 misses.

*shrug*

I don't remember the context to be honest, just a few words of the post. I'd still kill you for it. And for your lack of reasonable town reads coming into today.

ilario asked me if 2 misses would be enough to go after Sloonei. I said answering that question demands more context than just "2 misses".

It's pretty clear at the moment that you and I do not derive reads through a similar process. That's fine. But I am going to do things the way that I do them. Emerging from a town chop I am rarely going to have more confidence about town reads.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:46 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:43 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:42 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:41 pm Like JJJ's post yesterday of "let's get 2 misses before we consider re-evaluation sounded a lot like, let's get 2 kills before we start talking about my slot, and my partners"

That's not what I said. I was asked about 2 misses.

*shrug*

I don't remember the context to be honest, just a few words of the post. I'd still kill you for it. And for your lack of reasonable town reads coming into today.

ilario asked me if 2 misses would be enough to go after Sloonei. I said answering that question demands more context than just "2 misses".

It's pretty clear at the moment that you and I do not derive reads through a similar process. That's fine. But I am going to do things the way that I do them. Emerging from a town chop I am rarely going to have more confidence about town reads.

Ilario can be town for that.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:39 pm @falcon45ca and @TonyStarkPrime

Each of you voiced town reads on sig at different points of Day 1. Could you please just state or restate in basic terms what made you feel that way? If your feelings changed before EOD go ahead and say so.

I can say now that I was just masoned with sig in a game where we both spent very little time in the thread and he was approaching this game exactly how he approached that one as town

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:49 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:39 pm @falcon45ca and @TonyStarkPrime

Each of you voiced town reads on sig at different points of Day 1. Could you please just state or restate in basic terms what made you feel that way? If your feelings changed before EOD go ahead and say so.

I can say now that I was just masoned with sig in a game where we both spent very little time in the thread and he was approaching this game exactly how he approached that one as town

Which game was that? Witcher?

Anyways I have a watch on spf so if any fruit vendors wanna come clean now you won’t get in trouble

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:50 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:49 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:39 pm @falcon45ca and @TonyStarkPrime

Each of you voiced town reads on sig at different points of Day 1. Could you please just state or restate in basic terms what made you feel that way? If your feelings changed before EOD go ahead and say so.

I can say now that I was just masoned with sig in a game where we both spent very little time in the thread and he was approaching this game exactly how he approached that one as town

Which game was that? Witcher?

Yes

Don’t reD my iso it’s embarrassing

Ilario, Falcon, Dolby, TSP, PRs all town.

The game feels weird.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:50 pm Ilario, Falcon, Dolby, TSP, PRs all town.

If I were to do gun-to-head reads I think I'd agree with all four of these.

But I don't think it's probable that it's correct. If I have to yank a mafioso from that pile my first instinct is falcon.

Son of Anarch wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:17 pm Eh... If I had t'pick 4 people. Now that's really tough, but I'm gonna say right now it'd have to be...

Dizzy
Jimmy
Ilario

and for the fourth... I'm not too certain here. Maybe someone I haven't looked into too much but got good vibes from like Dolby or heck, even Johanna. That might be jumpin' the gun though. I think I'll slot Dolby in there.

Sloonei?

I'm identical to myself in Bonk Mafia, and I have decided NotAnAxehole is a bullshitter. If my posts are "empty" now they were empty in that game too, but his reads between the games don't align. Site Meta Boy needs to make more sense.

The POE was fine because it felt fine, and the only escape is to spam contrarian reads into the game and pretend town reading sig is somehow clearing.

Thoughts?

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:39 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:37 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:34 pm I mean, that and the fact that I'm obviously lock town for yesterday, Sig flip. If you don't see it, then you're probably just mafia, because I don't think you're bad.

I didn't realize you were referring to yourself.

You're not obviously lock anything to me (nor is anyone, I think that kind of language tends to be silly), but I'll take that into consideration.

I mean...

I pushed against the Sig wagon
I pushed on a Sig voter (who randomly was trying to put off the blame for his vote)

I get that you might be like, yeah but you could just theater... Yeah, but then look at the level of effort that I put into this game overall, and ask if I would really be bothered to do that shit as mafia just for the sake of the exact same outcome.

This post gets a blanket “No” from me.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:01 pm I'm identical to myself in Bonk Mafia, and I have decided NotAnAxehole is a bullshitter. If my posts are "empty" now they were empty in that game too, but his reads between the games don't align. Site Meta Boy needs to make more sense.

The POE was fine because it felt fine, and the only escape is to spam contrarian reads into the game and pretend town reading sig is somehow clearing.

Thoughts?

I read bonk mafia

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:01 pm I'm identical to myself in Bonk Mafia, and I have decided NotAnAxehole is a bullshitter. If my posts are "empty" now they were empty in that game too, but his reads between the games don't align. Site Meta Boy needs to make more sense.

The POE was fine because it felt fine, and the only escape is to spam contrarian reads into the game and pretend town reading sig is somehow clearing.

Thoughts?

I would like to have a better feel for who Axehole is and why he has the reads that he has, but my efforts to develop that read yesterday were unsuccessful.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:57 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:50 pm Ilario, Falcon, Dolby, TSP, PRs all town.

If I were to do gun-to-head reads I think I'd agree with all four of these.

But I don't think it's probable that it's correct. If I have to yank a mafioso from that pile my first instinct is falcon.

So yesterday you said I was towny, but my reads were wack and today you're saying I'm scummy, but my reads are fine?

Let's consolidate those shall we?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:04 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:01 pm I'm identical to myself in Bonk Mafia, and I have decided NotAnAxehole is a bullshitter. If my posts are "empty" now they were empty in that game too, but his reads between the games don't align. Site Meta Boy needs to make more sense.

The POE was fine because it felt fine, and the only escape is to spam contrarian reads into the game and pretend town reading sig is somehow clearing.

Thoughts?

I would like to have a better feel for who Axehole is and why he has the reads that he has, but my efforts to develop that read yesterday were unsuccessful.

View his reads progression through the 451 lens. I don't know if you played more than the one game there, but that's where his approach is more typical. Dialogue is discouraged or less emphasize, meta is more emphasized, and the game is driven by almost non-verbal communication.

I assess him for his reads. In Bonk Mafia his reads were pretty good. In this game he thinks I am mafia, so bad start, and his reads have otherwise struck me as dubious. So that's the only difference and it's different enough.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:06 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:57 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:50 pm Ilario, Falcon, Dolby, TSP, PRs all town.

If I were to do gun-to-head reads I think I'd agree with all four of these.

But I don't think it's probable that it's correct. If I have to yank a mafioso from that pile my first instinct is falcon.

So yesterday you said I was towny, but my reads were wack and today you're saying I'm scummy, but my reads are fine?

Let's consolidate those shall we?

I think those reads can be justified on pure gut, but this is a game with four mafia in it. You're requiring yourself to build a mafia team almost entirely out of my Day 1 town reads (and not just Sloonei) unless you just tack G-Man with us or something. That's not "good" reads.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:03 pm [VOTE: johanna] aubergine

Why

*Sigh*

Why aren't we talking about Johanna's triad comment? I'd like to know what/who they're talking about

Ok, I have a few moments, I'll catch up and give updated reads. People will blindly sheep me if I read thread, yes?

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:09 pm Why aren't we talking about Johanna's triad comment? I'd like to know what/who they're talking about

How much of this game have you read?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:10 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:09 pm Why aren't we talking about Johanna's triad comment? I'd like to know what/who they're talking about

How much of this game have you read?

Approx 1/3rd

I forced myself to put together a read list on an almost gun-to-head basis, because my mental sorting of this game has been a bit disturbed by SOD2 and the sig flip. This happened:

Dyslexicon
Sloonei
Lime Coke
TonyStarkPrime

ilario
Son of Anarch
Marmot

NotAnAxehole
falcon45ca
Johanna

G-Man

I a experiencing a ton of cognitive dissonance about that second tier. It's making it very difficult for me to form a proper POE pool.

Forgot Dolby. I also have no idea where to put Dolby. Third tier is the first instinct.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:17 pm I forced myself to put together a read list on an almost gun-to-head basis, because my mental sorting of this game has been a bit disturbed by SOD2 and the sig flip. This happened:

Dyslexicon
Sloonei
Lime Coke
TonyStarkPrime

ilario
Son of Anarch
Marmot

NotAnAxehole
falcon45ca
Johanna

G-Man

I a experiencing a ton of cognitive dissonance about that second tier. It's making it very difficult for me to form a proper POE pool.

Care to elaborate about what you mean when ya say "dissonance"? Are the tiers ordered?