The Syndicate

The only two people online talking about what people should do, when neither of us intends to do the work we're recommending. This is peak mafia.

Godfathers are hard. At least I know I'm not one.

JPIC and Sloonei definitely powerwolfing here

Do we have reason to believe a godfather exists?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:25 pm

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:19 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:17 pm That said, I still think we should spend the bulk of this day reaffirming our town reads. The next 24 hours are very busy for me, so I won't be much help. But I think it's wise to spend this time going over the players we've ruled out just in case we've missed anything. The last wolf may be hard to find, but if we lock everybody else in as town, there is nowhere to hide.

I won't be of much help tonight either. But the people I have ruled out so far are: creature, falcon, belzy and porscha

I assume that is everybody's list of people who are ruled out

If we feel that our cleared players are secure enough, we can just try to find town in the remaining players: you, me, sabie, LP, dya.

sabie and dyachei seem to be townreading each other off the BTSC.

Creature wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:29 pm Godfathers are hard. At least I know I'm not one.

also you are the only living green check.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:30 pm Do we have reason to believe a godfather exists?

No, not at all. I think role selection somewhat excludes it from existing.

Creature wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:31 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:25 pm

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:19 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:17 pm That said, I still think we should spend the bulk of this day reaffirming our town reads. The next 24 hours are very busy for me, so I won't be much help. But I think it's wise to spend this time going over the players we've ruled out just in case we've missed anything. The last wolf may be hard to find, but if we lock everybody else in as town, there is nowhere to hide.

I won't be of much help tonight either. But the people I have ruled out so far are: creature, falcon, belzy and porscha

I assume that is everybody's list of people who are ruled out

If we feel that our cleared players are secure enough, we can just try to find town in the remaining players: you, me, sabie, LP, dya.

sabie and dyachei seem to be townreading each other off the BTSC.

Yes but we can still read them both for ourselves. The BTSC is not attached to either of their roles, and if one is town then the other would still need to act the part in private.

Without that, I think that still leaves for dyachei using their shot on Marmot D1 when wolves started low in numbers and for sabie she claiming night vigilante.

I think wolf!sabie both had the opportunity to claim roleblocked (when she didn't shoot Paopan N3) and claim the kill on DrWilgy (who makes a hell lot more sense as a town kill than a wolf kill) yet she didn't.

Creature wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:30 pm JPIC and Sloonei definitely powerwolfing here

No

Im not sure how fruitful talking about a lost wolf is but do we think mafia know who the lost wolf is if there is indeed one?

Possible one doesn’t exist and ilario lied partly about his wincon

I hate trains

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:46 pm Possible one doesn’t exist and ilario lied partly about his wincon

Wait did ilario say there was a lost wolf?

Creature wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:47 pm

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:46 pm Possible one doesn’t exist and ilario lied partly about his wincon

Wait did ilario say there was a lost wolf?

No, he said that he doesn’t take on the factional kill if mafia died. But he could be lying about that part because he was a dirty 3p

Can someone remind me about Belzy & Porscha?


Like, if they're confirmed, why/how, and why are they still alive?

I guess there’s no point worrying about it until it if gets to that point and the game is still carrying on

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:50 pm Can someone remind me about Belzy & Porscha?


Like, if they're confirmed, why/how, and why are they still alive?

Probably being saved for soup

Same reason why your probably still alive

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:50 pm Can someone remind me about Belzy & Porscha?


Like, if they're confirmed, why/how, and why are they still alive?

Ok going to the PUB

gtg

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 1:58 pm

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 4:38 am

Belzy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 4:28 am Final scum has to be Lp qnd Jpic.

We got too many reasons for others to be town. Lp is clearly connected to Alexa, and if you ISO Jpic you will see Jpic always defending scum by wrongly saying they cannot be teamed, and keeps voting for townies, just *trusting* the wrong person on the wrong wagon.

Not really but whatever Neeko doesn't really care anymore since no one else even wants to think logically for two seconds about Neeko's role.
Mafia probably can't win tonight anyways unless there is another rolecop check so not like it matters, but at least it'll be confirmed that Sloonie and JPIC are the Mafia.
There is just not other people that can be Mafia except for Dya or Sabie, but they are both fairly town from their actions even if neither has contributed to the day much.
Only real way we loose this is if Creature throws the end after the other 3 claimed players get souped since Neeko doubts he's been rolecopped.

What illogical things are being said about your role?

Multiple.
For one you said that Neeko saying she gave Alexa a vest was contradictory. Alexa said she got a vest and Neeko gave an item that give an unknown effect. No one else was claiming to have been the one to give her the vest so logically it had to be Neeko's role.
You also gloss over the fact that Neeko wouldn't even have an insensitive to change her claim from vest to random item to even make the contradiction if it weren't true. If Neeko were lying she would just have left it as a 1-shot vest gift or something.
Neeko was intentionally vague at first because she believed Alexa was Town shot by Mafia so making Mafia think Neeko was some kind of armorer or vest giver would have been beneficial since they would be wrong in souping.
The whole trying to make it seem like a contradiction is a huge stretch.

Second off Neeko is still the one of three people that have a protective action the other being c4 and TSP one of which was already Mafia. Paopan was lying about ccing Neeko. It also really doesn't make sense in the theory that Neeko gave a vest item to a bulletproof Mafia and not to like Mac or TSP. TSP's role would already serve the same function in Mafia as Neeko's role.
It also doesn't make sense if you believe that Neeko is lying about her role entirely to try and fake a confirmable role. It would also necessitate that Alexa lie about receiving an item N1 and not get called out when no one flips a role that does that.
The only real connection between Neeko and Alexa is that Alexa lied about the vest being hit and Neeko used a protective action on a bulletproof which is pretty stupid for Mafia.
Furthermore Neeko lying about trying to give an item to Falcon N4 would be a pointless effort since all it does it make Neeko seem more suspicious. She did really just lose count of the day.

Then there is the whole other thing like TSP and Mac trying really hard to lynch Neeko days 1-3. Pretty sure the only Mafia who was against lynching Neeko was Alexa and that was pretty clearly to distance from TSP and Mac who she lynched and vigged that night. Mac even went so far to make up a scum slip Neeko made day 1 and never explained it no matter how much Neeko pressed him.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:50 pm Can someone remind me about Belzy & Porscha?


Like, if they're confirmed, why/how, and why are they still alive?

If there is reason to reconsider Porscha and Belzy it is this: They were cleared by Alexa specifically. They were both already comfortable town reads, and had very deliberately linked themselves together in the thread. But then Alexa faked an outburst where she shouted out their role(s) as "toxic masons" to justify their connection to one another.

Alexa claimed to have learned this as the town role cop. We now know that she was not any sort of role cop or investigative role at all. However, she also had information about nutella's role on Day 1 of the game which turned out to be accurate (I think? I wasn't fully present and my memory may be wrong), so it's not unlikely that the mafia team has some sort of role cop ability and Alexa simply chose to act as a mouthpiece for that. Her report on Belzy and Porscha could be accurate.

However, now that we know Alexa's emotional outburst during which she "revealed" this information about Belzy and Porscha was fake (as in, her emotions were faked), we should call into question her motives. Was it just Alexa's attempt to secure her place in the towncore by providing accurate information about a pair of town roles? Or was it a more nefarious attempt to clear herself along with two teammates who had already backed themselves into a corner via association with one another?

Honestly if you really want to kill Neeko she would at least like to give an item to Creature that might help. Doesn't even really matter if you have Falcon or Sabie shoot Neeko tonight
Just would be a waste to lynch Neeko today if you (Belzy) are so convinced neeko and JPIC are Mafia together.
Even assuming Neeko is Mafia giving the last Mafia a bulletproof or other heal effect at this point is not going to help them.
Neeko also can't give it to self so if you assumede Neeko was Mafia and the other Mafia is lynched Neeko couldn't even use her role to help Mafia if she wanted to.

[VOTE: belzy] aubergine

Let’s let this idea marinate for a little while.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:09 pm [VOTE: belzy] aubergine

Let’s let this idea marinate for a little while.

But if you're theory is Alexa and Belzy bussed Mac with a vig shot to confirm Alexa, Belza, and Paopan as Town.
Why would Falcon bussing TSp with a fake cop check and confirming their scumbuddie Creature not also be possible?
Those are basically the same paranoid theory crafting, except Belzy and Alexa had no reason to shoot Mac just so Sabie would think they are Town.

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:12 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:09 pm [VOTE: belzy] aubergine

Let’s let this idea marinate for a little while.

But if you're theory is Alexa and Belzy bussed Mac with a vig shot to confirm Alexa, Belza, and Paopan as Town.
Why would Falcon bussing TSp with a fake cop check and confirming their scumbuddie Creature not also be possible?
Those are basically the same paranoid theory crafting, except Belzy and Alexa had no reason to shoot Mac just so Sabie would think they are Town.

All three of Alexa, Belzy, and Sabie could not have been mafia. Their private chat needed to be treated as a public space. I was not there, so I do not know exactly what happened. sabie has seemed adamant that Belzy's and alexa's version of events was slightly different from her own.

But also I am mostly just exploring options here. I have said repeatedly that today should be spent re-examining town reads. This is me re-examining the town reads on Belzy and Porscha. Part of my reasoning for doing this is the consideration that you are town. If you're not mafia, then it means we have missed the mark completely. This should concern everyone.

If LinearPoint is mafia, they just responded with skepticism to an attempt to paint a world where they're town on a day when they seem doomed for the chopping block. That seems at least a little bit unlikely.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:22 pm

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:12 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:09 pm [VOTE: belzy] aubergine

Let’s let this idea marinate for a little while.

But if you're theory is Alexa and Belzy bussed Mac with a vig shot to confirm Alexa, Belza, and Paopan as Town.
Why would Falcon bussing TSp with a fake cop check and confirming their scumbuddie Creature not also be possible?
Those are basically the same paranoid theory crafting, except Belzy and Alexa had no reason to shoot Mac just so Sabie would think they are Town.

All three of Alexa, Belzy, and Sabie could not have been mafia. Their private chat needed to be treated as a public space. I was not there, so I do not know exactly what happened. sabie has seemed adamant that Belzy's and alexa's version of events was slightly different from her own.

But also I am mostly just exploring options here. I have said repeatedly that today should be spent re-examining town reads. This is me re-examining the town reads on Belzy and Porscha. Part of my reasoning for doing this is the consideration that you are town. If you're not mafia, then it means we have missed the mark completely. This should concern everyone.

Mafia probably could have had 3 people win the prize. Just given who won the prize that's impossible.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:09 pm [VOTE: belzy] aubergine

Let’s let this idea marinate for a little while.

I like it

[VOTE: Belzy] aubergine

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:26 pm Mafia probably could have had 3 people win the prize. Just given who won the prize that's impossible.

Correct. I am speaking in terms of POE. If Belzy is mafia, Porscha is her teammate. In this world, sabie is always town.

There's also really the fact that Mafia cannot soup tonight if Belzy/Porscha are Mafia.
In fact they cannot soup until they are guaranteed the final 2.
So Mafia can't win by souping tonight if Belzy/Porscha are Mafia.
And if Mafia don't soup tonight Neeko's pretty sure Falcon just wins the game for Town.
So a Belzy/Porscha team is very unlikely and if they are the last two then Town still wins by default.

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:12 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:09 pm [VOTE: belzy] aubergine

Let’s let this idea marinate for a little while.

But if you're theory is Alexa and Belzy bussed Mac with a vig shot to confirm Alexa, Belza, and Paopan as Town.
Why would Falcon bussing TSp with a fake cop check and confirming their scumbuddie Creature not also be possible?
Those are basically the same paranoid theory crafting, except Belzy and Alexa had no reason to shoot Mac just so Sabie would think they are Town.

I see no reason why Alexa and belzy couldn't have done that. I think at the very least alexa's plan was to convince me to shoot town paopan and then fake scum read me off it. She wasn't planning on getting poisoned so I think what she said in the chat and her reads at that time were intentional. She brought up mac first but I had just posted something saying I suspected mac so she knew I did prior to going into the chat. I also had just posted something about being suspicious of her. So I think her bringing up mac was to try to gain my trust. Alexa's claim was that porscha was a toxic mason and porscha seemed "mad" I guess. Idk it seems odd to me that belzy would be so fine with being "outed" and super buddy with alexa after that.

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:30 pm There's also really the fact that Mafia cannot soup tonight if Belzy/Porscha are Mafia.
In fact they cannot soup until they are guaranteed the final 2.
So Mafia can't win by souping tonight if Belzy/Porscha are Mafia.
And if Mafia don't soup tonight Neeko's pretty sure Falcon just wins the game for Town.
So a Belzy/Porscha team is very unlikely and if they are the last two then Town still wins by default.

Who do you think are the last two wolves? If you had to choose two names right now.

The fact that alexa allegedly brought up Mac first in the vig chat is a strong indication that the wolf team was conscious of the optics of that chat.

sabie12 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:31 pm

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:12 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:09 pm [VOTE: belzy] aubergine

Let’s let this idea marinate for a little while.

But if you're theory is Alexa and Belzy bussed Mac with a vig shot to confirm Alexa, Belza, and Paopan as Town.
Why would Falcon bussing TSp with a fake cop check and confirming their scumbuddie Creature not also be possible?
Those are basically the same paranoid theory crafting, except Belzy and Alexa had no reason to shoot Mac just so Sabie would think they are Town.

I see no reason why Alexa and belzy couldn't have done that. I think at the very least alexa's plan was to convince me to shoot town paopan and then fake scum read me off it. She wasn't planning on getting poisoned so I think what she said in the chat and her reads at that time were intentional. She brought up mac first but I had just posted something saying I suspected mac so she knew I did prior to going into the chat. I also had just posted something about being suspicious of her. So I think her bringing up mac was to try to gain my trust. Alexa's claim was that porscha was a toxic mason and porscha seemed "mad" I guess. Idk it seems odd to me that belzy would be so fine with being "outed" and super buddy with alexa after that.

OK, they could have, but pretty sure there were other PoE targets they could have shot and still gotten away with it as a misfire.
You of all people should know that is a doable feat.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:31 pm

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:30 pm There's also really the fact that Mafia cannot soup tonight if Belzy/Porscha are Mafia.
In fact they cannot soup until they are guaranteed the final 2.
So Mafia can't win by souping tonight if Belzy/Porscha are Mafia.
And if Mafia don't soup tonight Neeko's pretty sure Falcon just wins the game for Town.
So a Belzy/Porscha team is very unlikely and if they are the last two then Town still wins by default.

Who do you think are the last two wolves? If you had to choose two names right now.

Sloonie and JPIC make the most sense since Neeko. Sabie and Dya could be Mafia, but a Mafia night Vig doesn't seem like it'd be optimal game balance and Dya using her vig shot to kill mafia also doesn't make sense as Mafia unless we assume Dya is a Mafia Loyal Dayvig. That, however, makes even less sense than Sabie since there was only 7 Maifa, 2 3Ps with the wincon to kill Mafia, and too many vigilantes to count on the hand aligned with Town.
So that basically leaves PoE with just Slonie and JPIC.

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:36 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:31 pm

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:30 pm There's also really the fact that Mafia cannot soup tonight if Belzy/Porscha are Mafia.
In fact they cannot soup until they are guaranteed the final 2.
So Mafia can't win by souping tonight if Belzy/Porscha are Mafia.
And if Mafia don't soup tonight Neeko's pretty sure Falcon just wins the game for Town.
So a Belzy/Porscha team is very unlikely and if they are the last two then Town still wins by default.

Who do you think are the last two wolves? If you had to choose two names right now.

Sloonie and JPIC make the most sense since Neeko. Sabie and Dya could be Mafia, but a Mafia night Vig doesn't seem like it'd be optimal game balance and Dya using her vig shot to kill mafia also doesn't make sense as Mafia unless we assume Dya is a Mafia Loyal Dayvig. That, however, makes even less sense than Sabie since there was only 7 Maifa, 2 3Ps with the wincon to kill Mafia, and too many vigilantes to count on the hand aligned with Town.
So that basically leaves PoE with just Slonie and JPIC.

There is a glaring problem with this POE for me: I am in it. If you are town, you are running into the same problem with the consensus POE. If both of us are town, then we are indeed wrong. This is why I'm opening the Belzy and Porscha theory back up. I am specifically trying to envision a world where you are town, and this is the best that I can do.

I am also struggling to identify a clear teammate for LP here.

I guess I'm already getting bored from this game.

Creature wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:42 pm I guess I'm already getting bored from this game.

If I wasn't already.

At least now we have a decent chance to win.

Belzy
Creature
dyachei
falcon45ca
Justplayingitcool
LinearPoint
Porscha
sabie12
Sloonei

Creature wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:42 pm I guess I'm already getting bored from this game.

I still feel that there is a lot that we can be doing to help settle things. If LinearPoint is mafia, we need to find their teammate. If LinearPoint is town, we need to figure out where we've gone wrong.

Degrees of confidence from most town to least town:

Creature
falcon45ca

Belzy/Porscha

dyachei/sabie12

Sloonei
Justplayingitcool

LinearPoint

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:44 pm

Creature wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:42 pm I guess I'm already getting bored from this game.

I still feel that there is a lot that we can be doing to help settle things. If LinearPoint is mafia, we need to find their teammate. If LinearPoint is town, we need to figure out where we've gone wrong.

idk I'm following the philosophy of one wolf at a time. I don't want to preflip LinearPoint here.

At least if LinearPoint flips wolf Belzy/Porscha will be fully confirmed.

There's dyachei and sabie12. dyachei seems pretty confident sabie12 is town and I think dyachei tends to have pretty good reads. Not sure if sabie12 is being pocketed by dyachei though.

Creature wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:45 pm At least if LinearPoint flips wolf Belzy/Porscha will be fully confirmed.

Oh, there's also that kill on Mac that makes me kinda doubt alexa and Belzy are wolves together with Mac.