The Syndicate

I’m an idiot. Say you have an inactive as the last wolf.

What are the chances of randomizing and hitting the commuter over and over (cause surely the doc is out of shots)? Slim.

What about hitting the commuter and the serial killer who is bulletproof and who killed one of your teammates and has been spewed not wolf for awhile, randomly or otherwise? Much much higher.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 29, 2019 8:34 pm I’m an idiot. Say you have an inactive as the last wolf.

What are the chances of randomizing and hitting the commuter over and over (cause surely the doc is out of shots)? Slim.

What about hitting the commuter and the serial killer who is bulletproof and who killed one of your teammates and has been spewed not wolf for awhile, randomly or otherwise? Much much higher.

Ohhhh interesting thought Jack.

This is making my brain hurt. Or it could be the wine.

[mention]Jackofhearts2005[/mention] what do you mean by "kingmaker territory"?

Also, if the LMS can kill every night something like point total must be limiting him or he would have killed every night for awhile. And where did we make assumptions in this thread about how often he could kill?

That question was for [mention]Jackofhearts2005[/mention] ^.

juliets wrote: ↑Fri Nov 29, 2019 8:58 pm Jackofhearts2005 what do you mean by "kingmaker territory"?

Like if we lynch LLD, Radishes wins and if we lynch Radishes, LLD wins. Town can’t win but can determine the winner. Kingmaker.

I am not scum. Consider that I have called Radishes town for this long. I will give you another hard opinion.

Radishes can be third party but not scum IMO.

Cannot say more.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 29, 2019 9:11 pm

juliets wrote: ↑Fri Nov 29, 2019 8:58 pm Jackofhearts2005 what do you mean by "kingmaker territory"?

Like if we lynch LLD, Radishes wins and if we lynch Radishes, LLD wins. Town can’t win but can determine the winner. Kingmaker.

Ok

But we are likely kingmaker unless the Third-party jilled the scum.

Because even if we lynch scum if they 3p poisoned town we lose.

So we have two opitions.

Option 1) lynch for the third party and hope 3p hit scum for a win
2)no lynch and see what happens. If the 3p kills town then the scum has to no kill or risk losing to the poison.

I think 1 is far superior we just lose in mpst non scum poisoned cases

So

juliets wrote: ↑Fri Nov 29, 2019 9:02 pm Also, if the LMS can kill every night something like point total must be limiting him or he would have killed every night for awhile. And where did we make assumptions in this thread about how often he could kill?

Two phases ago (the day 112 died and we lynched Colin), I theorized there would be another poison by pointing out poisons were only occurring on even days.

There was a poison yesterday on an odd day.

Ergo my assumption that Radishes was not a serial killer because he couldn’t poison every night was incorrect.

He’s probably been poisoning every night (at least since returning to DL1) and his targets must keep getting lynched or nightkilled.

I’d say he could have been holstering but then he wouldn’t have poisoned Quin. The Quin poison only makes sense from LMS Radishes who must poison.

Given we need to lunch the third party...

Let us examine the third party kills and try and isolate who benefits from them.

What are the chances there is a wolf, the wolf is LLD and she doesn’t know which of us is the commuter?

Or the chances of there being no wolf at all?

Cause if LLD is the wolf she is basically saying she wasn’t poisoned, which is the third path to victory by lynching Radishes.

The only path to victory that doesn’t involve lynching Radishes is that LLD is the wolf and Radishes is a bulletproof 3P who can poison every day and also win with the town.

Lady LambdaDelta wrote: ↑Fri Nov 29, 2019 9:21 pm Given we need to lunch the third party...

Let us examine the third party kills and try and isolate who benefits from them.

Colin was the third party cop and spewed Radishes 3P with his death.

There is a doctor a commuter a wolf and a poisoner 3p left.

Last chance to get it right before you more or less confirm this is an angle you are pushing.

Lady LambdaDelta wrote: ↑Fri Nov 29, 2019 9:21 pm But we are likely kingmaker unless the Third-party jilled the scum.

Because even if we lynch scum if they 3p poisoned town we lose.

So we have two opitions.

Option 1) lynch for the third party and hope 3p hit scum for a win
2)no lynch and see what happens. If the 3p kills town then the scum has to no kill or risk losing to the poison.

I think 1 is far superior we just lose in mpst non scum poisoned cases

So

Thanks LLD. I need to think this through.

juliets wrote: ↑Fri Nov 29, 2019 9:28 pm

Lady LambdaDelta wrote: ↑Fri Nov 29, 2019 9:21 pm But we are likely kingmaker unless the Third-party jilled the scum.

Because even if we lynch scum if they 3p poisoned town we lose.

So we have two opitions.

Option 1) lynch for the third party and hope 3p hit scum for a win
2)no lynch and see what happens. If the 3p kills town then the scum has to no kill or risk losing to the poison.

I think 1 is far superior we just lose in mpst non scum poisoned cases

So

Thanks LLD. I need to think this through.

I am p. certain

the outcome is this

Jack wolf
Radishes 3p
You and I town.

And I think that means I know your role and you know my role.

Go look at my postings and see if you can solve for this, Juliets.

Tfw two of the roles are confirmed and you aren’t allowed to roleclaim.

Can we petition the mod for roleclaiming rn lol

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 29, 2019 9:27 pm

Lady LambdaDelta wrote: ↑Fri Nov 29, 2019 9:21 pm Given we need to lunch the third party...

Let us examine the third party kills and try and isolate who benefits from them.

Colin was the third party cop and spewed Radishes 3P with his death.

He definitely said his opinion was lynch Radishes.

Lady LambdaDelta wrote: ↑Fri Nov 29, 2019 9:29 pm

juliets wrote: ↑Fri Nov 29, 2019 9:28 pm

Lady LambdaDelta wrote: ↑Fri Nov 29, 2019 9:21 pm But we are likely kingmaker unless the Third-party jilled the scum.

Because even if we lynch scum if they 3p poisoned town we lose.

So we have two opitions.

Option 1) lynch for the third party and hope 3p hit scum for a win
2)no lynch and see what happens. If the 3p kills town then the scum has to no kill or risk losing to the poison.

I think 1 is far superior we just lose in mpst non scum poisoned cases

So

Thanks LLD. I need to think this through.

I am p. certain

the outcome is this

Jack wolf
Radishes 3p
You and I town.

And I think that means I know your role and you know my role.

Go look at my postings and see if you can solve for this, Juliets.

OK. I'm sorry Lexi my mind is not focused because of my father's death and all the arrangements and stuff we are doing. But I will go look at your postings right after dinner.

Take your time, [mention]juliets[/mention] . You’re confirmed town. Radishes is basically confirmed 3P scum.

You have about 48 hours to decide if you’re going to believe me and vote Radishes or believe LLD and vote Radishes.

And Radishes has 48 hours to explain how the serial poisoner could win with the town without admitting the role he’s talking about is his.

I will say if LLD wasn’t aware who the poisoner is, she might not know who the commuter is which means we can win by lynching Radishes.

I don’t think there’s a way for the town to win by lynching LLD.

Obviously, the town can’t win by lynching a townie either.

There’s like asterisks all over that statement but going into it would involve roleclaiming which would be a loss even if it didn’t result in my modkill.

Not that I disagree with you on Juliets being town but how is she confirmed town here?

Cannot believe I am asking literal actual scum player this question but

Ok so [mention]Lady LambdaDelta[/mention] I get what you're saying. And [mention]Jackofhearts2005[/mention] you make a good point, no matter who I believe the vote is Radishes from both of your perspectives. We either win or lose the game on that lynch, and it looks like a win is a long shot. I do want to hear what [mention]Master Radishes[/mention] has to say about all this because I like to hear all sides. And just a caveat to what I've said, I'll sleep on this and make sure I'm clearly thinking about all this.

Lady LambdaDelta wrote: ↑Fri Nov 29, 2019 10:13 pm Not that I disagree with you on Juliets being town but how is she confirmed town here?

Cannot believe I am asking literal actual scum player this question but

Not fucking telling for raisins.

What if our 3P is out of points? I guess that is a long shot, surely he would have saved some for the end.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 29, 2019 11:15 pm

Lady LambdaDelta wrote: ↑Fri Nov 29, 2019 10:13 pm Not that I disagree with you on Juliets being town but how is she confirmed town here?

Cannot believe I am asking literal actual scum player this question but

Not fucking telling for raisins.

Okay so you are confirming yourself scum to me, and then confirming Juliets town via that angle.

Thank you.

Juliets, Jack is attempting a mirror of my play that I started doing about 3 game days ago. I think you understand what I am saying.

I think we have this game solved, and we are in a weird spot that...

if the poisoner targetted the commuter, we should lynch the scum.

If the poisoner targetted the scum, we profit more by lyncching poisoner, but if we lynch scum we still have a chance at it tomorrow in 3p.

and if the poisoner targetted the doctor. we lose no matter what.

Which means actually, our best play is lynching the SCUM.

We win in 2/3 possible worlds in that outcome.

Come lynch Jack with me.

juliets wrote: ↑Fri Nov 29, 2019 11:17 pm What if our 3P is out of points? I guess that is a long shot, surely he would have saved some for the end.

We should lynch the scum Jack today.

It is optimal for us.

Lady LambdaDelta wrote: ↑Fri Nov 29, 2019 11:25 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 29, 2019 11:15 pm

Lady LambdaDelta wrote: ↑Fri Nov 29, 2019 10:13 pm Not that I disagree with you on Juliets being town but how is she confirmed town here?

Cannot believe I am asking literal actual scum player this question but

Not fucking telling for raisins.

Okay so you are confirming yourself scum to me, and then confirming Juliets town via that angle.

Thank you.

Juliets, Jack is attempting a mirror of my play that I started doing about 3 game days ago. I think you understand what I am saying.

I think we have this game solved, and we are in a weird spot that...

if the poisoner targetted the commuter, we should lynch the scum.

If the poisoner targetted the scum, we profit more by lyncching poisoner, but if we lynch scum we still have a chance at it tomorrow in 3p.

and if the poisoner targetted the doctor. we lose no matter what.

Which means actually, our best play is lynching the SCUM.

We win in 2/3 possible worlds in that outcome.

Come lynch Jack with me.

This is stupid. I know Juliets’s role cause raisins I’m not going to tell you but it’s obvious to her. Radishes is spewed 3P.

The way today always goes is that both of us “know” the other is the wolf only the evidence shows only one of us would miss like 4 kills if they were the wolf.

[mention]juliets[/mention] if you don’t realize why I’m saying what I’m saying and it makes you doubt me, I’ll be less vague until you get it but we’re not losing this game because the wolf baits me into giving away which of us is which role.

She knows which role I am because I have been softing it for 3-4 game days.

It is incredibly obvious.

And as a result she knows what role you are for pretending to be my role.

It is optimal to kill you today.

Vote Jack of Hearts

Juliet, I do not see myself changing course today. This is the correct move because if the poisoner killed scum we win even if we lynch scum.

and if the poisoner fails to kill due to points or targetting the commuter, then we win tomorrow anyway.

We never gain any win percentage by lynching the poisoner here. Our best move is lynching scum.

Join me.

[mention]juliets[/mention]

I’ll take things I would love to say but would result in a town loss for 100, 200 and 300, Alex.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 12:11 am I’ll take things I would love to say but would result in a town loss for 100, 200 and 300, Alex.

Given Juliets role we both know what we are claiming to be,

so I do not know why you are trying to pretend she doesnt know either. She knows her own role as town so she knows what we are trying to claim.

She knows what I did with my role, and she knows when I did it too.

Actually, there is something I can say here that helps.

Pawn was not allowed to soft watcher. He was the watcher.

Eva was allowed to soft mason. She was not the mason.

Iaafr was allowed to soft double voter. He was not the double voter.

Quin was allowed to soft mason apparently due to the fact that nobody picked up on his hints and he was dying anyway by the time the hosts realized it.

I’m not going to talk about what LLD is hinting because I’m not going to confirm if she guessed which of us is which or not.

The fact that she’s allowed to claim and isn’t dead proves she’s lying.

We’re still lynching Radishes today.

Lady LambdaDelta wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 12:37 am

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 12:11 am I’ll take things I would love to say but would result in a town loss for 100, 200 and 300, Alex.

Given Juliets role we both know what we are claiming to be,

so I do not know why you are trying to pretend she doesnt know either. She knows her own role as town so she knows what we are trying to claim.

She knows what I did with my role, and she knows when I did it too.

I know Juliets knows the remaining town role.

You don’t know which of us is which town role. If you did, the town would have already lost and nothing I do matters. You don’t and I’m not going to tell you.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 12:43 am Reminder that anything which can be construed as a concrete reveal of role information, implicit or explicit, is prohibited. This applies to both honest and dishonest content. Let's ensure this game continues in the spirit it has held to effectively for the majority of play time. If anyone is ever uncertain about what is kosher and what is not, simply send a PM to Sloonei and I. It's always better to check first than to make assumptions if there's any room for doubt. Do not interact with, talk about, or acknowledge this post publicly. Thanks everyone.

Well never mind I guess.

The missed kills are still a dead giveaway even if Juliets hadn’t isoed me on like Day 10 and came up with a townread after seeing my scumgame a bunch of times.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 12:44 am

Lady LambdaDelta wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 12:37 am

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 12:11 am I’ll take things I would love to say but would result in a town loss for 100, 200 and 300, Alex.

Given Juliets role we both know what we are claiming to be,

so I do not know why you are trying to pretend she doesnt know either. She knows her own role as town so she knows what we are trying to claim.

She knows what I did with my role, and she knows when I did it too.

I know Juliets knows the remaining town role.

You don’t know which of us is which town role. If you did, the town would have already lost and nothing I do matters. You don’t and I’m not going to tell you.

I know exactly which town role I am and which one she is.

And you do too, because you are soft claiming mine.

So good luck with that.

Lady LambdaDelta wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 12:49 am

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 12:44 am

Lady LambdaDelta wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 12:37 am

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 12:11 am I’ll take things I would love to say but would result in a town loss for 100, 200 and 300, Alex.

Given Juliets role we both know what we are claiming to be,

so I do not know why you are trying to pretend she doesnt know either. She knows her own role as town so she knows what we are trying to claim.

She knows what I did with my role, and she knows when I did it too.

I know Juliets knows the remaining town role.

You don’t know which of us is which town role. If you did, the town would have already lost and nothing I do matters. You don’t and I’m not going to tell you.

I know exactly which town role I am and which one she is.

And you do too, because you are soft claiming mine.

So good luck with that.

What a load.

I haven’t softed shit all game. I pretty much only claim in games that allow claiming if claiming will prevent a town lynch or cause a wolf lynch.

This time you are clearly lying cause Jay isn’t gonna post a mod announcement about my meta.

[Offtopicish]If this was an HCRealms game, Pawn would come in with a character claim and wincon claim that may or may not be true and then he would have to make a narrative case for why those things are appropriate for the theme and balance of this game and while that overall isn’t as fun as the high level play I enjoy here and on MU, I do miss that sort of thing because I really love the concept of telling stories through gaming. [/Offtopicish]

It’s also why my host posts are self indulgently long and my setups are overly cute.

*Radishes, not Pawn. Pawn’s reading the threadbit he’s dead.

I said I was taking a day's break, and Pawn goes and gets himself mod-killed?

I'm so sorry Juliets! I get what you mean about wanting a distraction, though.

Juliets is town, and if she isn't she's going to win. Presumably nothing I can say will dissuade people from believing I'm 3P. So we're down to LLD and Jack.

I don't follow the mechanics discussion at all, and don't plan to try; it's not my forte. But what I do find interesting are the conclusions, namely that Jack is insisting I need to be lynched. Considering there are 4 players left, it's the mafia that needs to be lynched for town to win (3P wincon/quantity of remaining role points being unknowns) and yet Jack is arguing I need to go on the basis of being 3P.

One more time because why not...

Day 1
[10] Dragomir - Benson, nutella, vanity., Long Con, Master Radishes, Hyena, Trustworthy Liberal, NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME, Pawn Lelouch, juliets
[7] 112 - Creature, Evenstar, TonyStarkPrime, novaselinenever, Elephant, Epignosis, Jackofhearts2005
[3] Evenstar - Texas Cloverleaf, sprityo, Quin
[2] Hyena - Dom, Michelle
[2] No Lynch - iaafr, boo
[1] Epignosis - MacDougall
[1] MacDougall - Dragomir
[1] nutella - Lady LambdaDelta
[1] Trustworthy Liberal - 112

Day 2
[5] boo - Long Con, Hyena, nutella, Benson, vanity.,
[5] DFaraday - Trustworthy Liberal, Creature, juliets,boo , Elephant
[1] Trustworthy Liberal - DFaraday

Day 3
[1] Creature - NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
[2] Elephant - Long Con, vanity.
[3] Nova/Ty4on - nutella, juliets, Creature
[1] Trustworthy Liberal - Nova/Ty4on
[3] vanity. - Trustworthy Liberal, Elephant, Hyena

Day 4
[3] Trustworthy Liberal - Long Con, vanity., Creature
[5] vanity. - Elephant, juliets, Hyena, nutella, Trustworthy Liberal
[2] non voting - Quin, LLD

Day 5
[5] Elephant - hyena, LC, nutella, Michelle, Dom
[2] Evenstar - Master Radishes, Sprityo
[3] Hyena - Mac, Evenstar, Pawn
[1] iaafr - Quin
[2] Long Con - iaafr, juliets
[1] Michelle - elephant
[1] Nutella - LLD
[2] Pawn - Epi, Jack

Day 6
[1] Dom - Trustworthy Liberal
[5] Hyena - Pawn, Mac, Radishes, juliets, Quin
[5] iaafr - sprityo, Dom, Epi, Jack, Colin
[2] LLD - LLD, Long Con
[1] Quin - 112
[1] Trustworthy Liberal - iaafr

Day 7
[6] Epignosis - Radishes, 112, Mac, Long Con, TL, iaafr
[3] iaafr - juliets, jack, Colin
[1] Radishes - Pawn
[1] Pawn - sprityo
[1] sprityo - Quin
[1] TL - Epignosis

Day 8
[4] Long Con - T Lib, iaafr, juliets, Radishes
[3] LLD - Jack, Mac, Quin
[2] Trustworthy Lib - 112, Long Con
[1] Radishes - Colin
[1] Pawn - LLD

Day 9
[4] Mac - Radishes, 112, Jack, Juliets
[2] Pawn - LLD, Mac
[1] LLD - Quin
[1] Quin - Colin
Not voting - Pawn, TL

Day 10
[2] 112 - Jack, Radishes
[3] Colin - juliets, Colin, 112

Day 6 - you're telling me LLD self-voted and stayed there, and that there were no scum trying to push iaafr out of the game?

Definitely leaning towards Jack being the mafia right now.