Inception [END]

[juliets]

Day 6 - you're telling me LLD self-voted and stayed there, and that there were no scum trying to push iaafr out of the game?

Definitely leaning towards Jack being the mafia right now.

I guess I was confused yesterday and thought Lexi AND Jack were saying our move here was to lynch the 3P but actually Lexi and now Radishes are saying the lynch is Jack because he is scum.

I have to say if Jack is scum this is the best scum game I've seen him play because I can't find the scum tells in his ISO.

Radishes voting point above though makes sense to me. I feel like there had to be scum on the iaafr vote Day 6. I also have a hard time believing Lexi would vote herself and stay there if she were scum. And would scum have been so strident about nutella being scum? That seems way too dangerous given nutella was a town read. She was definitely going against the tide there and it would have been so much easier to vote iaafr or Hyena. So as of now I'm more convinced Jack is scum than I am that Lexi is scum.

[Jackofhearts2005]

There isn’t a single scummy thing in my iso but LLD is more likely to be town because she self voted and pushed hard on a townie? Really?

It’s a good thing I’m unlynchable (or maybe not cause we’re probably in coin flip territory at best).

The vote thing from Radishes is wrong. If we lynch the wolf today, Radishes wins and the town loses. Of course he’s the right lynch and of course he’s going to push back on whoever says to lynch him. He wins unless we lynch him or the player he poisoned. He’s flat said he’s ignoring mechanics and mechanics are the reason he should be lynched. Mechanics are more likely to save us from Lexi than him. Probably.

[Jackofhearts2005]

The whole game rides on a single mechanic that I can’t talk about. Really frustrating.

[Jackofhearts2005]

You really think scumJack pushes against lynches on Epi, Colin, Quin and Pawn? I had a poe of 1 player yesterday: LLD and had argued that Quin and Pawn were mechanically confirmed.

Let’s say I’m a wolf and I manage to mislynch LLD yesterday. I’m then living in a world where by my own reads, I am the only player in the poe, the only possible wolf from a mechanical standpoint being Juliets, a universal townread.

Colonialbob would call my wolftell “conducting.” I take control of the thread. We lynch who I want to lynch. I kill who I want to kill. We narrow the poe down and I’m always on the edge of it and I get the lynches I need to win. You can see this in Mass Effect and Shockhead Peter, where I controlled the lynch in the last half of the game. You can see it in my wildcards game in champs from three years ago. You can see me trying to do it in Kirby.

There’s no agenda to my posts here because I’m town. I didn’t mind more than half the non me players being confirmed because I’m town. I pushed hard against mislynches on my townreads that everyone else wanted to lynch because I’m town.

My play makes no sense from a wolf perspective when I’m town. That’s why I’m unlynchable. It’s not magic. It’s not even skill. My townplay is just really obvious and I always want it enough to not be a mislynch.

[juliets]

There isn’t a single scummy thing in my iso but LLD is more likely to be town because she self voted and pushed hard on a townie? Really?

It’s a good thing I’m unlynchable (or maybe not cause we’re probably in coin flip territory at best).

The vote thing from Radishes is wrong. If we lynch the wolf today, Radishes wins and the town loses. Of course he’s the right lynch and of course he’s going to push back on whoever says to lynch him. He wins unless we lynch him or the player he poisoned. He’s flat said he’s ignoring mechanics and mechanics are the reason he should be lynched. Mechanics are more likely to save us from Lexi than him. Probably.

Jack, the part I'm not understanding is how "mechanics are more likely to save us from from Lexi than him". I know there is only so much you can say but I'll ask anyway, is there anything else that you can say that might help me understand what you are talking about? Maybe you explained this statement more in your subsequent or prior posts and I'm just having trouble getting it.

[juliets]

The whole game rides on a single mechanic that I can’t talk about. Really frustrating.

Oh never mind, I think this is the answer to my question. You can't say any more about it.

[Jackofhearts2005]

There isn’t a single scummy thing in my iso but LLD is more likely to be town because she self voted and pushed hard on a townie? Really?

It’s a good thing I’m unlynchable (or maybe not cause we’re probably in coin flip territory at best).

The vote thing from Radishes is wrong. If we lynch the wolf today, Radishes wins and the town loses. Of course he’s the right lynch and of course he’s going to push back on whoever says to lynch him. He wins unless we lynch him or the player he poisoned. He’s flat said he’s ignoring mechanics and mechanics are the reason he should be lynched. Mechanics are more likely to save us from Lexi than him. Probably.

Jack, the part I'm not understanding is how "mechanics are more likely to save us from from Lexi than him". I know there is only so much you can say but I'll ask anyway, is there anything else that you can say that might help me understand what you are talking about? Maybe you explained this statement more in your subsequent or prior posts and I'm just having trouble getting it.

Assume both LLD and Radishes are exactly who I think they are. Vanilla wolf. LMS bulletproof poisoner.

Who do you think lynching is more likely to cause a town win. Play it out in your head. Does the poison kill today and if so, who? Does LLD successfully kill tonight?

Just come back with who you think should be lynched between the two of them if you were sure those are the two baddies.

[juliets]

There isn’t a single scummy thing in my iso but LLD is more likely to be town because she self voted and pushed hard on a townie? Really?

It’s a good thing I’m unlynchable (or maybe not cause we’re probably in coin flip territory at best).

The vote thing from Radishes is wrong. If we lynch the wolf today, Radishes wins and the town loses. Of course he’s the right lynch and of course he’s going to push back on whoever says to lynch him. He wins unless we lynch him or the player he poisoned. He’s flat said he’s ignoring mechanics and mechanics are the reason he should be lynched. Mechanics are more likely to save us from Lexi than him. Probably.

Jack, the part I'm not understanding is how "mechanics are more likely to save us from from Lexi than him". I know there is only so much you can say but I'll ask anyway, is there anything else that you can say that might help me understand what you are talking about? Maybe you explained this statement more in your subsequent or prior posts and I'm just having trouble getting it.

Assume both LLD and Radishes are exactly who I think they are. Vanilla wolf. LMS bulletproof poisoner.

Who do you think lynching is more likely to cause a town win. Play it out in your head. Does the poison kill today and if so, who? Does LLD successfully kill tonight?

Just come back with who you think should be lynched between the two of them if you were sure those are the two baddies.

Ok I am thinking it through.

[juliets]

I'm unsure how much I can speculate. It's hard to do given the constraints. Maybe I just speculate to myself.

[Jackofhearts2005]

I'm unsure how much I can speculate. It's hard to do given the constraints. Maybe I just speculate to myself.

Yeah, I don’t want reasoning, just a final conclusion.

[juliets]

[mention]Jackofhearts2005[/mention] are you assuming that if we lynch the poisoner the poisoner's victim does not die? Don't answer this if it's against the rules.

[juliets]

Also, if the LMS can kill every night something like point total must be limiting him or he would have killed every night for awhile. And where did we make assumptions in this thread about how often he could kill?

Two phases ago (the day 112 died and we lynched Colin), I theorized there would be another poison by pointing out poisons were only occurring on even days.

There was a poison yesterday on an odd day.

Ergo my assumption that Radishes was not a serial killer because he couldn’t poison every night was incorrect.

He’s probably been poisoning every night (at least since returning to DL1) and his targets must keep getting lynched or nightkilled.

I’d say he could have been holstering but then he wouldn’t have poisoned Quin. The Quin poison only makes sense from LMS Radishes who must poison.

Jack, why does the Quin poisoning only make sense from LMS Radishes who "must" poison. Are you just saying it proves that the 3D is an LMS because he has started doing it every night? Or is there something else you are saying. I know this seems tangential but I think whether Radishes is a 3D who can win with town or is an LMS is important.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Jackofhearts2005 are you assuming that if we lynch the poisoner the poisoner's victim does not die? Don't answer this if it's against the rules.

That's a possibility.

Also, if the LMS can kill every night something like point total must be limiting him or he would have killed every night for awhile. And where did we make assumptions in this thread about how often he could kill?

Two phases ago (the day 112 died and we lynched Colin), I theorized there would be another poison by pointing out poisons were only occurring on even days.

There was a poison yesterday on an odd day.

Ergo my assumption that Radishes was not a serial killer because he couldn’t poison every night was incorrect.

He’s probably been poisoning every night (at least since returning to DL1) and his targets must keep getting lynched or nightkilled.

I’d say he could have been holstering but then he wouldn’t have poisoned Quin. The Quin poison only makes sense from LMS Radishes who must poison.

Jack, why does the Quin poisoning only make sense from LMS Radishes who "must" poison. Are you just saying it proves that the 3D is an LMS because he has started doing it every night? Or is there something else you are saying. I know this seems tangential but I think whether Radishes is a 3D who can win with town or is an LMS is important.

I'm saying that it is LMS Radish or survivor Radish or any other common 3P wincon Radish to not poison every night once he is outed so as to appear like he only can poison every other night, which is the assumption that had been made out loud by several players.

The fact that he killed Quin on a different day than usual (ie poisoned him on a different night than usual) implies that he's not only not restricted to every other night, he can't choose to only poison every other night either.

A 3P that must kill every night is a serial killer.

[Jackofhearts2005]

And it sucks because we could have lynched LLD and then seen the Quin poison and lynched Radishes ftw.

[juliets]

Ok so the 3P poisoned (assuming the poison was done the night before the death) on:

Night 4 - Eva (died day 5)
Night 6 - sprityo (died day 7)
Night 7 - iaafr (died day 8)
Night 9 - 112 (died day 10)
Night 10 - Quin (died day 11)

(Someone double check me)

So really it started out with two even nights, then two odd nights, then one even night. I wonder if he has to kill in that pattern, two evens, two odds, two evens, two odds. If so, he didn't send in a kill last night because it was an odd night. He wouldn't be able to kill again until Night 12.

If that's true, then if we lynch him today we stop him from poisoning tonight. We go into the night phase with 3 people, one of whom is a killer. We could end up with no one dying overnight and 3 of us here in the next day phase.

Well, there's probably a big hole in this logic somewhere, somebody point it out.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Sprityo was killed night 7, presumably by the mafia.

But yeah I totally missed that Eva was killed D5, Iaafr was killed D8, 112 was killed D10. I thought Eva was killed D6 so it seemed like an every other day thing.

[juliets]

Sprityo was killed night 7, presumably by the mafia.

But yeah I totally missed that Eva was killed D5, Iaafr was killed D8, 112 was killed D10. I thought Eva was killed D6 so it seemed like an every other day thing.

Oh right I messed that up. Well so much for my theory.

[Jackofhearts2005]

It also occurs to me that having a 3P cop is a dead giveaway that the 3P is antitown.

It would have been nice to have that thought yesterday.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Sprityo was killed night 7, presumably by the mafia.

But yeah I totally missed that Eva was killed D5, Iaafr was killed D8, 112 was killed D10. I thought Eva was killed D6 so it seemed like an every other day thing.

Oh right I messed that up. Well so much for my theory.

I mean it still comes down to if we think the wolf is more likely to miss a kill tonight or if the serial poisoner is more likely to not kill a townie today.

[juliets]

It also occurs to me that having a 3P cop is a dead giveaway that the 3P is antitown.

It would have been nice to have that thought yesterday.

Good point.

[Jackofhearts2005]

If we think nobody is poisoned (cause commuter) or the wolf is poisoned, we can lynch the wolf, poison tonight doesn’t matter because it’s 2 vs 1 to lynch Radishes tomorrow. Or we could lynch the poisoner and hope the wolf kill misses but that’s sub optimal.

If we think a townie is poisoned, we have to lynch the poisoner and hope that cures the poison. If we lynch the wolf, we go into the night with only one townie and no way to lynch the poisoner tomorrow.

I think. That’s not what I worked out yesterday so I’ll have to check that later.

[juliets]

I wish [mention]Lady LambdaDelta[/mention] and [mention]Master Radishes[/mention] would come on so we could all toss this around. Radishes will be going to bed soon I think though.

Tomorrow we are meeting with the minister at 2:00 pm central time and I don't know how long that is going to take. I should probably put a vote on someone in the morning tomorrow.

[juliets]

I feel like I am going to make us lose this game because I'm having trouble honestly deciding between Jack and LLD. Each time one of them posts I think "yes, they are town". I can feel all the dead townies screaming at me "Cant you see it's [insert name]?" I wish I knew LLD's game better. The only thing I know about her, from the champs finale, is she was able to bend people to her will. She is a great player. I'm more familiar with Jack's game and he looks so town to me, but I remember nutella suspected him. He is also a great player.

A Radish vote feels like we would end up in a tie. LLD is not moving off Jack and Radishes will likely vote there I think.

Ugh.

[juliets]

I should have also mentioned that Radishes is a great player. I'm playing this game with 3 great players.

[Lady LambdaDelta]

I feel like I am going to make us lose this game because I'm having trouble honestly deciding between Jack and LLD. Each time one of them posts I think "yes, they are town". I can feel all the dead townies screaming at me "Cant you see it's [insert name]?" I wish I knew LLD's game better. The only thing I know about her, from the champs finale, is she was able to bend people to her will. She is a great player. I'm more familiar with Jack's game and he looks so town to me, but I remember nutella suspected him. He is also a great player.

A Radish vote feels like we would end up in a tie. LLD is not moving off Jack and Radishes will likely vote there I think.

Ugh.

Juliet

Both Jack and I are claiming the same thing that we <cannot talk about because raisins>

only difference is I have been doing it since about 3-4 Game days ago. I cannot tell you when but since YOU KNOW YOUR ROLE

and you thus knwo what role I would have to be

PUT TWO AND TWO together and then go look for what day that would be, and what I instantly say AFTER that.

It is a weird thing to say for a player who barely reads the game, I woujld thikn.


But even if you have to, ignore us both on mechanics. We are both gonna play it is a mystery with those mechanics

so just look at voting patterns

I voted myself, I pushed Nutella and I did not vote Iaafr

All of these as you mentioned are nigh impossible for the late game scum player to have done.

Consider that if I was scum I would have been on a team with Eva and Mac. This would have been motivation not demotivation for me to play.

And consider that if I was this out of it in a game with them on my scum team?

I would have jsut told them to bus me day 1, been super try hard for 1 day, died, and been happy to not have to play more.

right?

so the fact I am alive here as a lurker is testiment that I was always the final <mislynch> of this game.

I told you something way way back when I self voted myself.

Either lynch me then, or never lynch me.

All players chose not to lynch me for 2 days.

If you reasonably made that choice as town you cannot go back on it and fall right into the trap scum would ALWAYS aim for which is to point at how little I have done this game and try and fuck with me that way.

The reason I am here is because both evil parties wanted me here and the reason you are here is because they.... redacted. There is a reason you are here and it is mechanical and I cannot talk about it.


So you get me.


Just vote Jack. I promise you it is not wrong.

[Jackofhearts2005]

The reason you are here is cause Pawn accidentally got himself modkilled.

WolfJack always has a plan and it doesn’t involve hoping townies get modkilled or letting confirmed townies like Quin and Pawn last like 4 days after they get confirmed.

Confirmed townies lived because kills were randomized. Multiple kills missed because kills were randomized.

[mention]juliets[/mention]

Do you think our best bet is to lynch a wolf or 3P? I think you should be able to say that.

[Lady LambdaDelta]

I showed mathematically it is better to lynch scum.

But you still want to lynch the third party.

I wonder why

[Lady LambdaDelta]

Honestly I get you are fighting for your scum win and you think I am kingmaking against you

But I am doing the correct mechanical choice for town Jack. It is only coincidental that I get to enjoy watching you lose.

[juliets]

[mention]Jackofhearts2005[/mention] when I look at LLD's voting and behavior regarding nutella and even me earlier in the game I have a hard time believing she is scum.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Jackofhearts2005 when I look at LLD's voting and behavior regarding nutella and even me earlier in the game I have a hard time believing she is scum.

It’s process of elimination.

[juliets]

And I am being tugged by her AtE. Would she promise me, knowing what I've been through this week, just to win a game? She would have to be heartless and ruthless.

[Jackofhearts2005]

I showed mathematically it is better to lynch scum.

Only based on information you don’t know. If you were town, you wouldn’t know if the other townie was poisoned. If they were, lynching a wolf automatically loses the game for the town.

You don’t give a shit about finding the correct path because you don’t want the correct path.

[Jackofhearts2005]

And I am being tugged by her AtE. Would she promise me, knowing what I've been through this week, just to win a game? She would have to be heartless and ruthless.

Are you seriously asking me if scum would try to deceive someone in a game of mafia?

[Master Radishes]

I'll be honest, the several days' break I ended up taking has zapped my enthusiasm. I'm overworked at my job at the moment and am struggling to get back into this game. So apologies if I'm misreading some of the arguments here, and if I get a bit rambly.

But what I'm seeing is Jack scaremongering to get the result he wants, which is what makes me think he's not town.

The 3P is probably going to have role points like every other role, and there have been, what, 4 poisons so far? So 8 role points. That's more than any other role we've seen flip so far, which makes sense I suppose. There's no pattern to the poisons. That suggests the role was used when desired, not in any pattern.

So what we need to decide is: do they definitely have more role points left to poison again? 10 role points seems like a lot compared to the numbers we've seen so far. I'm not sure how we can guarantee there's another poison at all, and even if we say there is it is surely targeted at the player most scummy to the 3P, as they need the final mafia to die.

Trying to lynch 3P today ensures scum wins, because we can't guarantee there's no night kill and a 3P lynch & scum NK = game over.

We need to lynch mafia today, 3P tomorrow.

[Master Radishes]

Speculation: juliets could still be a baddie. Nothing except 'she's played well' disqualifies her.

But I don't have the energy nor commitment to look there.

[Master Radishes]

What if we no lynch and see what happens?

[juliets]

What if we no lynch and see what happens?

Honestly, this is where I started the day.

What would make this a bad idea?

[Jackofhearts2005]

What if we no lynch and see what happens?

Honestly, this is where I started the day.

What would make this a bad idea?

You suggesting this changes the math.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Why wouldn’t we just lynch the wolf then?

[juliets]

What if we no lynch and see what happens?

Honestly, this is where I started the day.

What would make this a bad idea?

You suggesting this changes the math.

I'm just suggesting we make sure it doesn't change the math. I'm slower to evaluate the options than you guys. That's why I asked the question.

[Master Radishes]

Wait, is there maths involved? To be honest, my eyes are glazing over at all the possibilities being tossed around. My understanding, in a game without role claims, is we just lynch whoever we find scummiest.

Lynching the 3P gives the mafia chance to target the person they probably know is not the commuter and seal the win. We need to lynch the mafia if we're going to lynch at all. So either we find who that is, or the second best option is no lynch.

[juliets]

And I am being tugged by her AtE. Would she promise me, knowing what I've been through this week, just to win a game? She would have to be heartless and ruthless.

Are you seriously asking me if scum would try to deceive someone in a game of mafia?

Deceive yes but would someone go that far? I guess I'd like to think not but maybe I'm being too naive.

[juliets]

Wait, is there maths involved? To be honest, my eyes are glazing over at all the possibilities being tossed around. My understanding, in a game without role claims, is we just lynch whoever we find scummiest.

Lynching the 3P gives the mafia chance to target the person they probably know is not the commuter and seal the win. We need to lynch the mafia if we're going to lynch at all. So either we find who that is, or the second best option is no lynch.

Ok so Radish, in your opinion it is Jack, correct?

[Master Radishes]

Wait, is there maths involved? To be honest, my eyes are glazing over at all the possibilities being tossed around. My understanding, in a game without role claims, is we just lynch whoever we find scummiest.

Lynching the 3P gives the mafia chance to target the person they probably know is not the commuter and seal the win. We need to lynch the mafia if we're going to lynch at all. So either we find who that is, or the second best option is no lynch.

Ok so Radish, in your opinion it is Jack, correct?

GTH at this point, yes.

But I'll need to give LLD proper consideration as well before I settle on that vote for sure.

[Jackofhearts2005]

What if we no lynch and see what happens?

Honestly, this is where I started the day.

What would make this a bad idea?

You suggesting this changes the math.

I'm just suggesting we make sure it doesn't change the math. I'm slower to evaluate the options than you guys. That's why I asked the question.

The answer is always like “If I tell you the scenario we can go no lynch, you tell the scum we’re in that scenario and then it is less likely to work.”

So idk. I think there exists a scenario where we go no lynch and hope tomorrow starts at 2 vs 1. Idk if we’re in it.

[juliets]

What if we no lynch and see what happens?

Honestly, this is where I started the day.

What would make this a bad idea?

You suggesting this changes the math.

I'm just suggesting we make sure it doesn't change the math. I'm slower to evaluate the options than you guys. That's why I asked the question.

The answer is always like “If I tell you the scenario we can go no lynch, you tell the scum we’re in that scenario and then it is less likely to work.”

So idk. I think there exists a scenario where we go no lynch and hope tomorrow starts at 2 vs 1. Idk if we’re in it.

Yes, I agree. It's so hard to determine what to assume with all the variables.

[Master Radishes]

If I had infinite time I bet I could figure it out.

[Master Radishes]

We could look at the different levels, all the different interactions, test all the scenarios...mafia would be so easy if I had nothing but time.

[Jackofhearts2005]

If Juliets thinks we can win by going no lynch, I don’t have anything that says she’s wrong.

It’s certainly better than taking a coin flip to maybe lynch one of the baddies and then hope mechanics stop the other.

[Master Radishes]

Wait.

I think I solved it.