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Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 12]
Posted: Sat Nov 30, 2019 8:54 pm
by Lady LambdaDelta
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 8:52 pm
Lady LambdaDelta wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 8:52 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 8:49 pm
Lady LambdaDelta wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 8:46 pm
Lynch scum wins 2/3 times.
Lynch third party wins 1/3 times.
No lynch wins 4/9 times (1.33/3)
Lynching scum is mathematically correct
What are the odds if we lynch town?
If we lynch a townie, townies lose in all worlds. 0/3
I don’t believe you’re actually doing any math and also, you’re proposing that scenario so...
If Juliets is town and Radishes is 3p you are scum
So
I can show you the work on all worlds yeah?
Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 12]
Posted: Sat Nov 30, 2019 8:59 pm
by Jackofhearts2005
Lady LambdaDelta wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 8:54 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 8:52 pm
Lady LambdaDelta wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 8:52 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 8:49 pm
Lady LambdaDelta wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 8:46 pm
Lynch scum wins 2/3 times.
Lynch third party wins 1/3 times.
No lynch wins 4/9 times (1.33/3)
Lynching scum is mathematically correct
What are the odds if we lynch town?
If we lynch a townie, townies lose in all worlds. 0/3
I don’t believe you’re actually doing any math and also, you’re proposing that scenario so...
If Juliets is town and Radishes is 3p you are scum
So
I can show you the work on all worlds yeah?
Sure.
Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 12]
Posted: Sat Nov 30, 2019 9:02 pm
by Lady LambdaDelta
Okay here we go.
If we lynch scum
3 possible outcomes:
Scum was poisoned, town lynches 3p next day Town wins.
Commuter was poisoned, no one was poisoned, same thing.
Doctor was poisoned, 3p wins.
2/3
If we lynch 3p
Scum poisoned, town wins
Commuter poisoned, scum shoots doctor, town loses
Doctor poisoned, scum wins
1/3
If we no lynch
Scum poisoned, town lynches 3p nezt day Town wins
Doctor poisoned, scum shoots 3p scum wins
Commuter poisoned.... Is a scenario of its own
4p night lylo
If poisoned poisons scum, and scum shoots town, 3p wins.
If poisoner poisoned scum and scum shoots 3p town wins.
If poisoner poisons town, town always loses.
1/3 and 1/9 is 4/9
Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 12]
Posted: Sat Nov 30, 2019 9:07 pm
by juliets
Thank you LLD for spelling this out.
Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 12]
Posted: Sat Nov 30, 2019 9:13 pm
by juliets
I swear this is the most complicated game I think I've ever played.
Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 12]
Posted: Sat Nov 30, 2019 9:15 pm
by Jackofhearts2005
juliets wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 9:13 pm
I swear this is the most complicated game I think I've ever played.
I promise to find a different comod for my next job and fix that.
Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 12]
Posted: Sat Nov 30, 2019 9:17 pm
by Jackofhearts2005
I thought it would be helpful to see what assumptions LLD was making but knowing she doesn’t think the 3P is bulletproof is like not actually helpful.
Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 12]
Posted: Sat Nov 30, 2019 9:17 pm
by juliets
Lol Jack.
A severe thunderstorm is entering our area so if I disappear ya'll will know what happened.
Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 12]
Posted: Sat Nov 30, 2019 9:57 pm
by juliets
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 9:17 pm
I thought it would be helpful to see what assumptions LLD was making but knowing she doesn’t think the 3P is bulletproof is like not actually helpful.
Would that be reasonable? To make the 3P bulletproof? I don't think I've ever seen that but maybe it's common and I just don't know it.
Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 12]
Posted: Sat Nov 30, 2019 10:09 pm
by Jackofhearts2005
juliets wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 9:57 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 9:17 pm
I thought it would be helpful to see what assumptions LLD was making but knowing she doesn’t think the 3P is bulletproof is like not actually helpful.
Would that be reasonable? To make the 3P bulletproof? I don't think I've ever seen that but maybe it's common and I just don't know it.
Idk. I like to make my serial killers immune to nightkill or investigation or both to make up for not having teammates and because it’s easier to balance things with a serial killer who can’t just be shot N1.
We are more likely to see 3(?) missed kills if two of the three nonwolf players have at least some degree of nk protection.
Randomize kills -> Hits the commuter several times is kinda unlikely.
Randomize kills -> Hits the commuter or sk several times is more likely.
Jack intentionally kills -> Hits bulletproof players (max 2 players) 3 times is of course a thing that never happens.
It’s actually annoying me a bit that two players (cause LLD is just a wolf) are honestly considering the idea that I’m a wolf who is throwing away nks and potential mislynches. Like if I was a wolf that wanted to gamethrow, I’d have already done that.
Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 12]
Posted: Sat Nov 30, 2019 10:14 pm
by Lady LambdaDelta
What you have done is not game throw Jack and any assertions you are by being scum here are plainly lies.
Juliets, please just vote Jack.
Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 12]
Posted: Sat Nov 30, 2019 10:35 pm
by Jackofhearts2005
Lady LambdaDelta wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 10:14 pm
What you have done is not game throw Jack and any assertions you are by being scum here are plainly lies.
Juliets, please just vote Jack.
If I’m a wolf, how did I miss 3 kills when there’s only one or two bulletproof players?
If I’m a wolf, what was my play, continually townreading Colin, Radishes, Pawn, Quin and Juliets? Lynching my scumreads only (plus two kills for those two mislynches and an anticipated one poison) would have resulted in at best a lylo of 2 widely townread and perhaps mechanically confirmed townies vs wolfJack.
That’s a loss every damn time. And on top of that, I decided to throw away nightkills? Bullshit.
Juliets should remember me specifically telling people over and over that Colin was town and specifically telling her that Pawn and Quin were mechanically confirmed after she had forgotten. I legitimately fought against all the lynches that would put wolfJack in a position to win. And for what? Pawn getting modkilled could not have been planned for and Quin getting poisoned was a surprise to me as well.
You’re making a case that I’m an idiot who isn’t playing to win. Or rather, you’re not making it. You’re saying pretty please vote Jack because ate is all you have. Logically, there’s no world I’m a wolf.
Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 12]
Posted: Sat Nov 30, 2019 10:37 pm
by Jackofhearts2005
Plus Jay came out and said the mafia kill would be randomized after Mac was lynched if no kill was submitted.
Kills hit TL (which got a collective “Why?” from the town) and nobody for the next several days while LLD was absent and I was present. Instead of confirmed townies like Quin and Pawn.
LLD is the wolf. It’s obvious af.
Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 12]
Posted: Sat Nov 30, 2019 10:57 pm
by Jackofhearts2005
At this point, I’m also convinced LLD has not targeted Radishes with a kill intentionally based on her math showing a wolf could shoot 3P and based on her wanting to lynch me.
I’m also convinced she does know which of me and Juliets is which.
I’m further convinced nobody is poisoned. I’m not poisoned. LLD gives a fuck. Juliets is considering going no lynch.
With this in mind, lynching Radishes means LLD shoots me and wins. Lynching LLD means tomorrow it is 2 vs 1 and I’m poisoned and town wins. Lynching nobody is a tossup. Lynching me is...I’m not sure how those numbers work out in 1 vs 1 vs 1 but it doesn’t look great.
So I’m pretty well anticipating willful ignoring of my points from LLD and Radishes to excuse their votes and a coinflip ftw between me and LLD.
Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 12]
Posted: Sat Nov 30, 2019 10:57 pm
by Jackofhearts2005
Fuuuuuuuuuuuuck
Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 12]
Posted: Sat Nov 30, 2019 10:59 pm
by Jackofhearts2005
[VOTE:
LLD] aubergine
Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 12]
Posted: Sat Nov 30, 2019 11:06 pm
by juliets
[mention]Jackofhearts2005[/mention] lets say you are town and I end up thinking you are town. LLD and Radishes vote for you. You and I vote for LLD? There's a tie and it's a toss up. Do you see it going any differently? What do you see as the plan if I agree with you?
Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 12]
Posted: Sat Nov 30, 2019 11:09 pm
by juliets
oh I didn't see your post [mention]Jackofhearts2005[/mention] it may answer my question.
Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 12]
Posted: Sat Nov 30, 2019 11:11 pm
by juliets
Yes actually it does answer my question.
Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 12]
Posted: Sat Nov 30, 2019 11:14 pm
by Jackofhearts2005
[mention]Master Radishes[/mention]
You wouldn’t by any chance want to keep pretending to be town and vote LLD would you?
Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 12]
Posted: Sun Dec 01, 2019 12:00 am
by Lady LambdaDelta
juliets wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 11:06 pm
@Jackofhearts2005 lets say you are town and I end up thinking you are town. LLD and Radishes vote for you. You and I vote for LLD? There's a tie and it's a toss up. Do you see it going any differently? What do you see as the plan if I agree with you?
Stop making deals with the scum.
Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 12]
Posted: Sun Dec 01, 2019 12:15 am
by juliets
Lol [mention]Lady LambdaDelta[/mention], honestly I am just trying to look at all sides of this. Make sure I'm considering all the factors.
Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 12]
Posted: Sun Dec 01, 2019 9:46 am
by juliets
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2019 7:50 pm
Follow up:
Quin and LLD are kicked from DL2 that Day. If scum control 2 votes, how does LLD end up lynched? If LLD is scum, why do her and Mac pseudo-kill her back down to DL1 and then not take any advantage of 'clearing' her for it?
iirc in DL1 Quin speculated that he was the lynch and LLD was the nk in DL2 because he had not had presence in the game. That would also argue for LLD being town UNLESS scum wanted her kicked to DL1 for some reason. I'll look back at Quin's posts to make sure I'm remembering right.
Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 12]
Posted: Sun Dec 01, 2019 9:51 am
by juliets
Here it is:
Quin wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2019 11:23 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2019 11:20 pm
Quin wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2019 11:16 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2019 11:14 pm
Quin wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:56 pm
juliets wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:12 pm
@Creature I see it as a starting place at least.
I'm anxious to hear what @Quin and @Lady LambdaDelta have to say about whether they saw the Nanook and Ty4on flips when they happened the first time. And whatever else they can tell us.
To my understanding we weren't supposed to see flips. We saw boo's but that was some kind of host oopsie. Also Epi (among others, probably - but he's an example) disappeared from our thread yesterday and isn't in this thread so something's going on there.
Maybe they went to a deeper level? As far as I've been able to guess, this level is the top and yours is the next dream in, so maybe another was added
That's likely. Just to clarify, I know pretty much nothing about how this 'sink' works. We had to vote but whoever we ended up lynching didn't die, and then we lost like 11 people at once.
Ok so when Nanook and Ty4on (who replaced nova) joined us here we guessed that Nanook was "NKed" over there to get "kicked" to our dream level, and that Nova/Ty was "lynched" over there (since they told us that he was one of the apparent candidates for people's votes there, though of course they couldn't be sure).
Do you think your side voted to lynch LLD or yourself, and that the other one may have been "NKed"?
I think they would have NK'd lady and lynched me. I townread Lady and my activity was abysmal for a lynch pool of 5 people.
Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 12]
Posted: Sun Dec 01, 2019 9:59 am
by juliets
But then there was this from Nanook:
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 12:57 am
Trustworthy Liberal wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 12:54 am
Trustworthy Liberal wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 12:52 am
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 12:51 am
Trustworthy Liberal wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 12:48 am
Also while your here Nanook if you could see the other side what is/was your real on Nova/Ty4on
I didn’t really have a read on them before today, I hadn’t read them really. I’d say ty4on is maybe slightly townie but he’s in a tough position to evaluate tbh
Accidentally insa posted by was gonna say
That's not bad to hear I get slight town from them but the other side decided they were evil want to hear more from the next gonna call it drop in
Well, it’s hard to say how true that is—we couldn’t declare votes on the other side or tell other people to vote for a specific person, so nova being the kill doesn’t inherently mean he was found the most scummiest.
IIRC Epi and 112 and to a lesser extent radishes and spirityo and Lexi were the most popular scumreads, with nova slotted in thay second tier.
But who knows how votes actually went, it’s really hard to reach too many conclusions on them.
Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 12]
Posted: Sun Dec 01, 2019 10:11 am
by juliets
OK [mention]Master Radishes[/mention] I'm interested in what you have to say about LLD. Also Jack is no longer saying we should vote 3P. What do you think about his new way of seeing things, i.e., we should lynch scum.
Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 12]
Posted: Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:27 am
by juliets
This is another thing I keep going back to:
Lady LambdaDelta wrote: ↑Thu Nov 21, 2019 1:23 am
You didn't choose to lynch me on the two days I gave you to do it.
Further, you watched yesterday
I was the 3 vote counter wagon to the scum lynch.
Anyone who thinks I am anything other than the clear and obvious scum attempt to avoid the Chemist lynch is... wrong. Dead wrong. And possibly intentionally so.
This was the Day 8 lynch, when we lynched Long Con. I've said this before but what bothers me about this lynch is Mac voted for LLD and he did not bus any other scum Day 1, 5, 6, 7 or 9. When I was bad with Mac in another game he coached us not to bus so this Day 8 vote sticks in my mind.
Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 12]
Posted: Sun Dec 01, 2019 12:07 pm
by juliets
Does a scum Jack hard defend Mac? He did this when I suspected Mac and suspected me of trying to wrongly influence players that didn't know Mac well.
Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 12]
Posted: Sun Dec 01, 2019 12:34 pm
by juliets
I re-read my ISO of Jack and his posts from yesterday. I know his game better than I know LLD's so what he's got in his favor is I am reading him as town based on the way he has played. I know they can't both be town and I know I have to decide soon which way to vote. Hopefully there will be some more posting before I have to do so.
Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 12]
Posted: Sun Dec 01, 2019 1:27 pm
by juliets
I think this is one of the posts that shows Jack was not looking to lynch Pawn, Quin, or Colin all of whom were town (LLD is still unknown). He made a point yesterday about why he would have wanted obvious town (Pawn and Quin) in the game with him in lylo/mylo.
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 24, 2019 9:34 pm
juliets wrote: ↑Sun Nov 24, 2019 6:38 pm
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sun Nov 24, 2019 6:36 pm
There's too much riding on activity/engagement levels, which is impossible to read correctly.
Let's lynch one of the slankers to teach them all a lesson.
Out of the slankers I would pick Colin.
I’d pick LLD if I was looking for a slanking wolf between her, Pawn, Quin and Colin.
For third party? Fuckifino.
Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 12]
Posted: Sun Dec 01, 2019 1:27 pm
by Jackofhearts2005
juliets wrote: ↑Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:27 am
This is another thing I keep going back to:
Lady LambdaDelta wrote: ↑Thu Nov 21, 2019 1:23 am
You didn't choose to lynch me on the two days I gave you to do it.
Further, you watched yesterday
I was the 3 vote counter wagon to the scum lynch.
Anyone who thinks I am anything other than the clear and obvious scum attempt to avoid the Chemist lynch is... wrong. Dead wrong. And possibly intentionally so.
This was the Day 8 lynch, when we lynched Long Con. I've said this before but what bothers me about this lynch is Mac voted for LLD and he did not bus any other scum Day 1, 5, 6, 7 or 9. When I was bad with Mac in another game he coached us not to bus so this Day 8 vote sticks in my mind.
If LLD and LC are both mafia, where does Mac vote if he won’t bus?
I’d rather have LC than LLD on my team at that stage, esp cause LC was a power role and LLD is vanilla.
Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 12]
Posted: Sun Dec 01, 2019 1:28 pm
by Jackofhearts2005
Mac also tried to lynch me a few times.
Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 12]
Posted: Sun Dec 01, 2019 1:43 pm
by juliets
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 01, 2019 1:27 pm
juliets wrote: ↑Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:27 am
This is another thing I keep going back to:
Lady LambdaDelta wrote: ↑Thu Nov 21, 2019 1:23 am
You didn't choose to lynch me on the two days I gave you to do it.
Further, you watched yesterday
I was the 3 vote counter wagon to the scum lynch.
Anyone who thinks I am anything other than the clear and obvious scum attempt to avoid the Chemist lynch is... wrong. Dead wrong. And possibly intentionally so.
This was the Day 8 lynch, when we lynched Long Con. I've said this before but what bothers me about this lynch is Mac voted for LLD and he did not bus any other scum Day 1, 5, 6, 7 or 9. When I was bad with Mac in another game he coached us not to bus so this Day 8 vote sticks in my mind.
If LLD and LC are both mafia, where does Mac vote if he won’t bus?
I’d rather have LC than LLD on my team at that stage, esp cause LC was a power role and LLD is vanilla.
My thought is he would've vote TLib.
Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 12]
Posted: Sun Dec 01, 2019 1:44 pm
by juliets
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 01, 2019 1:28 pm
Mac also tried to lynch me a few times.
Ok, I didn't ISO Mac so I didn't catch that.
Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 12]
Posted: Sun Dec 01, 2019 2:13 pm
by juliets
I am thinking I don't have to vote until after we've met with the minister today regarding arrangements for my dad. Surely it won't be a 3 hour meeting.
Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 12]
Posted: Sun Dec 01, 2019 3:21 pm
by juliets
So where is everyone? I hope there are some posts here when I get back, lol.
Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 12]
Posted: Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:06 pm
by juliets
Ok I'm back. Two hours to go.
Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 12]
Posted: Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:37 pm
by Master Radishes
I'm here. Ish.
Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 12]
Posted: Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:40 pm
by juliets
Oh cool [mention]Master Radishes[/mention]. Any further thoughts today? I feel like you will want to lynch the scum.
Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 12]
Posted: Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:42 pm
by Master Radishes
I tried to ISO LLD but there's just not much there. And to be honest, if I lose to a slanky LLD I'm not going to lose much sleep over it. (I think, if anything, her behaviour suggests she is 3P, but I can't imagine I'm going to make much headway down that path.)
But I don't have time nor energy to properly devote to this anymore. It's been going for over a month.
So going purely based off levels, voting, and general reactions in recent rounds that I can remember, I find scum!Jack to be a likely possibility, scum!LLD to be likely but moreso through PoE, and scum!Juliets to be technically possible but unlikely based on how this round is unfolding (both LLD and Jack cross-FoSing).
So
[VOTE:
JackofHearts] aubergine is getting lynched.
Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 12]
Posted: Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:44 pm
by Master Radishes
juliets wrote: ↑Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:40 pm
Oh cool Master Radishes. Any further thoughts today? I feel like you will want to lynch the scum.
That's the point of the game, yes.
But either we lynch the scum correctly and 3P wins tomorrow when I'm lynched, or we lynch not-scum and they win now. Town is not winning this game.
Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 12]
Posted: Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:45 pm
by Master Radishes
Fade me if wrong gl gl
Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 12]
Posted: Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:52 pm
by juliets
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:44 pm
juliets wrote: ↑Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:40 pm
Oh cool Master Radishes. Any further thoughts today? I feel like you will want to lynch the scum.
That's the point of the game, yes.
But either we lynch the scum correctly and 3P wins tomorrow when I'm lynched, or we lynch not-scum and they win now. Town is not winning this game.
Ugh. Such a shame when we are sitting here with two towns, a scum and a 3P.
Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 12]
Posted: Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:54 pm
by Master Radishes
Go on Juliets. You and I have the swing votes here, so unless you have a convincing reason to make me switch, I plan to sit here. Either vote with me or vote LLD and let it rand for the game.
Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 12]
Posted: Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:55 pm
by juliets
I was just considering if I wanted to let it rand.
Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 12]
Posted: Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:56 pm
by juliets
It seems like a chicken way out though.
Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 12]
Posted: Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:56 pm
by Master Radishes
In fact, do that.
Let's do a game-deciding rand.
Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 12]
Posted: Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:56 pm
by Master Radishes
BWOOOONNNNGGGGG
Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 12]
Posted: Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:57 pm
by Master Radishes
Live shot of juliets right now.
Re: Inception [Subconscious Phase 12]
Posted: Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:59 pm
by juliets
LOLOL.
Ok, I'm going to do it. I can't tell between the two of them, one of them has me completely fooled or in their pocket. I'm voting [VOTE:
Lady Lamdadelta] aubergine.