Re: Transistor [Night 7]
Posted: Sun Jun 05, 2016 1:11 am
Voted Operator.
K4J, I see the numbers about Process elements. I can see that in a case, we could be outnumbered. I understand the potential for being outnumbered for votes. But as far as I can see, and from what we know, not counting the unknowns, I don't see why the Process is so dangerous. What have the Process elements done so far? They've interacted with us in the thread, thrown a lot of in-character reads and votes out, but looking back, they haven't been the deciding factor in a lynch or anything. They've just kind of been there.kneel4justice wrote:And you have ignored the discussion of the importance of voting process elements as well, so what is up with that? You seem to have avoided voting for the elements, just as Llama has.agleaminranks wrote:Argh. If JJJ is a baddy, he is playing one hell of a good civ game. That level of analysis is stupendous.
I'm actually surprised at the result of his analysis with me. Frankly, if I were outside looking in, I would be hella suspicious of myself. I misplaced faith in two people who flipped bad when I doubted them originally. That would just look like bad attempts at distancing, and I haven't participated in a successful baddy lynch yet.
I know I'm good, but if I didn't have that insight, I would think I were bad. Which, if I had to have a suspicion of JJJ, would be the only one I could make: it would be that if he were bad, he would know I wasn't, and could use that to his advantage if I were lynched. But I want to believe JJJ is good just by how useful his analyses have been as a whole. It just seems highly unlikely to me that someone would be willing to go to those levels if they were lying through their teeth.
I'm a little inclined to agree with his analysis at the end here. llama has been tunneling JJJ since Night 2, apart from the one vote on the nutella train. Mac has agreed with llama in a couple of posts and done somehow even less to support his votes. I don't like either of the two.
I'm voting Mac.
Following the mafia's kill of a process element, you voted for me and said you'd explain further later. Your explanation can be found here. You say it was to gauge reactions, which is fine. But you also explain that you weren't sure of voting for a process element so you voted for me - even though you did not think I would be lynched. Those two things kind of cancel each other out IMO.
It comes out looking like you just didn't want to vote for a process element.....and if you don't have a real suspicion of anyone, why not vote an element? I'm not quite following your train of thought. I will say the fact that you outright said you didn't know how to feel about voting for an element makes it feel more genuine as opposed to avoiding it with bad intentions.
But now you are repeating and it makes me uneasy.......saying you're voting for Mac, while it is being discussed how dangerous the process elements are. I don't understand how people are ignoring this.
Yeah, but do you really think that? Voting process elements is all good and well, and I will be happy to join you in doing that once my arch-foe JJJ is gone.kneel4justice wrote:Looking back through Llama's posts...I think Llama could be the process.
Llama originally expressed interest in partaking in DrumBeat's plan (here) and then further expressed that it would be a good idea to lynch a process element to see what happens (here).
Following the mafia's killing of a process element, Llama voted for JJJ without any discussion of following DrumBeat's plan (here). Granted Llama was busy during away at a convention during this particular phase. I was originally pinged by this, but looking back I find it even more bothersome - since Llama actually expressed interest in DrumBeat's proposal.
It's starting to look like Llama wanted to appear ready to work against the process but when the actual time came, he wasn't willing to do so. Strikes me as someone who didn't want to lose their elements and thought since the elements are so mysterious and that there was no concrete information on what needed to be done with the elements, they could get away with it.
Llama has voted for JJJ, yet again...during the midst of a conversation that has centered around why it is important to lynch an element this particular day phase to avoid the process from getting too much power as far as voting ratios go.
Now, I think strategically, it would still be best to go ahead with lynching an element, in the event that this is wrong. But I do think once we get the ratio to an acceptable amount (which, someone might have to help with that math lol) Llama is a good candidate for the process.
If I am wrong about Llama being the process, I do think there is a chance that he is mafia. Looking back I did not see any comments on Eloh's behavior during her time of being alive. He also had good reads on MP and never changed those. Which looks bad at face value, now I think it would be stupid for him to avoid suspecting both of them, but not impossible.
Yeah, nobody who has brought forth suspicion of JJJ has backed it up with anything.nijuukyugou wrote:Voting Operator.
I'm finding the JJJ suspicions without much of an effort to back them up becoming more and more bizarre (as in, I'm questioning why they're happening beyond face value). Gonna ponder this. I'd like to see others' thoughts on this. I'm off to a baseball game for the evening, but may be back later tonight, but more likely tomorrow. Hasta más tarde, muchachos.
Of the possible options you seem pretty sure mafia tried to kill Process last night, rather than an element protected by cheerleader. How would you know they did that unless you were one of them?MacDougall wrote:Why don't you tell us who the process is since you just found out.
1. I never abandoned it. What makes you say that?DrumBeats wrote:Process Read: 3J - He has tried numerous times this game to legitimize the Process's thoughts/actions. Started and abandoned a case based on the Process research votes, which honestly seemed more like a distancing himself from the Process type thing than legitimate hunting.
I think llama is more likely to be the Process than I did before that analysis, and I think DFaraday and Mac are less likely. Those are valuable conclusions in a field of players this small. I didn't abandon it at all and never suggested an intent to abandon it.DrumBeats wrote:You drew next to no conclusion from it and you haven't mentioned it since the operator flip or analyzed the operator votes. Seems abandoned to me![]()
Also it seems like distancing because in the end, you only arrived at a very conditional "If this is valid..." Conclusion based upon it, and all gained information you mentioned from it was simply a smaller "they look better, they look worse" For all the effort you put into it, I'm not sure I believe all that effort was for that small maybe conclusion. The effort would be much more warranted if there were a more subtle motive behind it, being to distance.
Of course behavior is important. We're playing Mafia. The best thing is to judge votes and behavior. Any information at our disposal should be utilized, and prior to my analysis nobody had really done anything with the night poll information.DrumBeats wrote:As for a better way, I personally think analyzing people's behavior always trumps vote analysis. Looking at possible motives and inconsistencies.
Strongest town reads are nijuukyugou and yourself. I like your interactions with the deceased baddies. I don't think you're likely to be the Process given your treatment of the elements all game long and also their treatment of you. I have observed no compelling reason to associate niju with the Process either. I also think DFaraday looks good for being MP's main fall guy in the Zebra wagon.DrumBeats wrote:Also, answer your own questions please. Town reads, Process reads, Scum reads, if we should lynch an element.
I might be crucified for saying this, but no way, dude. The mafia misses a kill, giving us an advantage when they have (presumably, barring shenanigans) TWO members left this late in the game, and you want to waste the precious day on a Process element? I understand your numbers analysis. I appreciate that you're not ignoring a dangerous indy. But this focus away from baddie hunting for so long is starting to smell. Bad. I agree with JJJ - Epi may be evil, but he's not SO unbalanced (game-wise; can't speak for his mental state :P ) that we couldn't use the day to hunt baddies.DrumBeats wrote:GUYS I JUST FOUND OUT WHAT LUNA IS!
If you look at the Transistor wiki (http://transistor.wikia.com/wiki/Sandbox) page here apparently Luna is a friendly Fetch found in the game's sandbox mode.
Additionally, the lack of a kill means that mafia either shot the Process, shot an element protected by Cheerleader, or shot a civ protected by a doctor if that is still present in the game. Operator's role is interesting and better taken out before the others die, so I am happy it is out, though the fact that it didn't have a vote makes me feel that it might not have been the best lynch option.
Process elements I would be willing to vote today: Man or Fetch
I feel like elements are still the way to go for now. It would be best to err on the safe side with them before we fight the civ vs mafia war that could drop our numbers below that of the Process.
I like wat ur saying but I dont know if I can trust it hahanijuukyugou wrote:I might be crucified for saying this, but no way, dude. The mafia misses a kill, giving us an advantage when they have (presumably, barring shenanigans) TWO members left this late in the game, and you want to waste the precious day on a Process element? I understand your numbers analysis. I appreciate that you're not ignoring a dangerous indy. But this focus away from baddie hunting for so long is starting to smell. Bad. I agree with JJJ - Epi may be evil, but he's not SO unbalanced (game-wise; can't speak for his mental state :P ) that we couldn't use the day to hunt baddies.DrumBeats wrote:GUYS I JUST FOUND OUT WHAT LUNA IS!
If you look at the Transistor wiki (http://transistor.wikia.com/wiki/Sandbox) page here apparently Luna is a friendly Fetch found in the game's sandbox mode.
Additionally, the lack of a kill means that mafia either shot the Process, shot an element protected by Cheerleader, or shot a civ protected by a doctor if that is still present in the game. Operator's role is interesting and better taken out before the others die, so I am happy it is out, though the fact that it didn't have a vote makes me feel that it might not have been the best lynch option.
Process elements I would be willing to vote today: Man or Fetch
I feel like elements are still the way to go for now. It would be best to err on the safe side with them before we fight the civ vs mafia war that could drop our numbers below that of the Process.
I'll be doing some vote listy-analysis that's helped me in the past to organize my thoughts, now that I'm able to focus more again. Will post. Will discuss. Would like to see others' thoughts on this matter, too.
...Where is everyone?
If we're not doing an element I will support an agleam lynch. He is the only person I feel strongly enough about that I don't think it would be risking a mislynch.nijuukyugou wrote:I might be crucified for saying this, but no way, dude. The mafia misses a kill, giving us an advantage when they have (presumably, barring shenanigans) TWO members left this late in the game, and you want to waste the precious day on a Process element? I understand your numbers analysis. I appreciate that you're not ignoring a dangerous indy. But this focus away from baddie hunting for so long is starting to smell. Bad. I agree with JJJ - Epi may be evil, but he's not SO unbalanced (game-wise; can't speak for his mental state :P ) that we couldn't use the day to hunt baddies.DrumBeats wrote:GUYS I JUST FOUND OUT WHAT LUNA IS!
If you look at the Transistor wiki (http://transistor.wikia.com/wiki/Sandbox) page here apparently Luna is a friendly Fetch found in the game's sandbox mode.
Additionally, the lack of a kill means that mafia either shot the Process, shot an element protected by Cheerleader, or shot a civ protected by a doctor if that is still present in the game. Operator's role is interesting and better taken out before the others die, so I am happy it is out, though the fact that it didn't have a vote makes me feel that it might not have been the best lynch option.
Process elements I would be willing to vote today: Man or Fetch
I feel like elements are still the way to go for now. It would be best to err on the safe side with them before we fight the civ vs mafia war that could drop our numbers below that of the Process.
I'll be doing some vote listy-analysis that's helped me in the past to organize my thoughts, now that I'm able to focus more again. Will post. Will discuss. Would like to see others' thoughts on this matter, too.
...Where is everyone?
1. JJJ, K4J, and Ninja.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I think it's important that we energize this game as much as possible right now. It is entirely winnable, but to get there we're going to need coordination amongst town reads and communication about courses to be followed. Without vote changes, any vote placed by a townie upon another townie has the potential to be very damaging at this point, and we stand a better chance of avoiding that if we talk everything over before the votes start falling and facilitate coordinated voting and team work. I'd like to hear perspectives from everyone remaining on the following points:
1. Who are your town reads?
2. Who do you think are most likely to be mafia?
3. Who do you think are most likely to be the Process?
4. Do you feel we should lynch a player or an element this day phase?
I'm leaning civ, but don't feel as strongly about him as some of the others. If he's not civ, he's Mafia, since he's spent the whole game trying to get rid of Process elements.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:DFaraday, what do you think of DrumBeats?
I, as a dog, will trust your judgment and vote for whomever you vote for.agleaminranks wrote:I've made at least two lengthy posts now on why I think it's better to be baddie hunting than voting for process elements right now. I've asked for input on what others think about the idea, and whether or not there's something I'm missing. I've even entertained the possibility of voting for an element, but no one has even responded to any of my questioning or any of my thoughts on the matter. I've been completely ignored, and most everyone is saying they have a mafia read on me, when my posts attempting to explain my reasoning just get glossed over. What gives, people?
EBWOP: I planned to vote Mac on day six and somehow just forgot to press the button. Even said so in the thread. D'oy.agleaminranks wrote:Also, I honestly didn't even realize I missed the last two votes. I'm real sorry, I think playing two mafia games at the same time has gotten me a bit over my head. I won't miss the vote today.
Thanks? I think?Fetch wrote:I, as a dog, will trust your judgment and vote for whomever you vote for.agleaminranks wrote:I've made at least two lengthy posts now on why I think it's better to be baddie hunting than voting for process elements right now. I've asked for input on what others think about the idea, and whether or not there's something I'm missing. I've even entertained the possibility of voting for an element, but no one has even responded to any of my questioning or any of my thoughts on the matter. I've been completely ignored, and most everyone is saying they have a mafia read on me, when my posts attempting to explain my reasoning just get glossed over. What gives, people?
Are you sure?agleaminranks wrote:EBWOP: I planned to vote Mac on day six and somehow just forgot to press the button. Even said so in the thread. D'oy.agleaminranks wrote:Also, I honestly didn't even realize I missed the last two votes. I'm real sorry, I think playing two mafia games at the same time has gotten me a bit over my head. I won't miss the vote today.
I still feel very bad about Mac and he will be getting my vote again.
Fetch wrote:Are you sure?agleaminranks wrote:EBWOP: I planned to vote Mac on day six and somehow just forgot to press the button. Even said so in the thread. D'oy.agleaminranks wrote:Also, I honestly didn't even realize I missed the last two votes. I'm real sorry, I think playing two mafia games at the same time has gotten me a bit over my head. I won't miss the vote today.
I still feel very bad about Mac and he will be getting my vote again.
agleaminranks wrote:Fetch wrote:Are you sure?agleaminranks wrote:EBWOP: I planned to vote Mac on day six and somehow just forgot to press the button. Even said so in the thread. D'oy.agleaminranks wrote:Also, I honestly didn't even realize I missed the last two votes. I'm real sorry, I think playing two mafia games at the same time has gotten me a bit over my head. I won't miss the vote today.
I still feel very bad about Mac and he will be getting my vote again.Spoiler: show
So your desparation to element lynch is falseDrumBeats wrote:I'm going to be gone at the update, but it seems nobody wants to lynch an element today. Only fair ig since mafia didn't kill one. I'll be voting gleam as well for aforementioned reasons.
Ruff! Ruff!Fetch wrote:agleaminranks wrote:Fetch wrote:Are you sure?agleaminranks wrote:EBWOP: I planned to vote Mac on day six and somehow just forgot to press the button. Even said so in the thread. D'oy.agleaminranks wrote:Also, I honestly didn't even realize I missed the last two votes. I'm real sorry, I think playing two mafia games at the same time has gotten me a bit over my head. I won't miss the vote today.
I still feel very bad about Mac and he will be getting my vote again.Spoiler: show![]()
I voted for Mac for reasons stated above.
His votes have consistently been off-wagon, with some of them falling late enough in a phase that the prevailing wagon(s) had begun to form (during the Nero and nutella lynches). None of his votes thus far have really been placed with much pressure.nijuukyugou wrote:gleam
Day 1: Matt (2)
Day 2: MP (single)
Day 3: nijuu (2)
Day 4: llama (2)
Day 5: k4j (single)
Day 6: misses vote
Day 7: misses vote
Missed the last two lynch polls, but voted in the night polls. Curious. For me, this rules out that he’s inactive mafia if he’s voting in night polls (i.e., not missing night actions). He seems to be throwing his votes wherever others are NOT voting. Never votes an element. Votes MP early, but not with any momentum. Iffy, and a candidate for either mafia or Process.
There's also the part where I actually stated reasons relevant to this game thread to suspect you both. My butt and its current state of comfort/discomfort are irrelevant to those things.MacDougall wrote:Yeh but the cases against me and Llama amount to... Jimmy is butthurt.
I would have voted for you but unfortunately you have the masses fooled as usual.