Re: Mass Effect Mafia (Day 2)
Posted: Thu Apr 06, 2017 12:25 pm
Epignosis, how skilled are you at mind games, in relation to the average player?
As a civ I wouldn't want to waste either. I see the logic with lynching Epi, I just disagree with it. I hope to the Enkindlers, no civ hitter hits Epi, that's the worst possible outcome.Jackofhearts2005 wrote:EBWOP
If you think you can get Epi lynched, why shoot him?
Long Con wrote:What makes you think anyone would want to kill you on Night 1?
With few exceptions, I don't automatically believe anything you say that begins with "I wouldn't have..." Your argument gives the appearance of thinking things through when you already know what you believe. It served a purpose.Long Con wrote: If that's what I believed, then I wouldn't have made the argument against the roleblock stopping the kill. If I knew you were bad because I was bad and tried to kill you, then I would assume that the roleblock thing was true. I defended you against the roleblock thing. I didn't suspect you until you started this wishy-washy hintclaim business.
My role says "by the end of the third Night phase." It says nothing about having to choose during a Night phase. If I chose a side right now, that satisfies that requirement. I read my role very carefully before doing what I did.Long Con wrote: I think I'm missing something here. If we lynch you today, then you don't get to align with anyone, and you lose the game, cold and alone.
1. Parasites don't vote. My existence does not count for the purpose of deciding the game, but my existence will have an effect on what the endgame scenario is. And may I remind the Alliance that they need Cerberus dead just as much as I do. Regardless of which way I go, I do have value to the civilians.Long Con wrote: Speaking of "bad logic".Lemme lay out some important facts:
1. Alliance or Reaper, your presence does not help that team win: "You will not be counted among their numbers though for the purposes of deciding the game." You are nothing but a parasite.
2. If you join the Reapers, you're still a possible liability to them, because you don't get to know who they are. And now, because you outed yourself, they won't even be able to signal you with subtlety, because everyone will be watching for that. So you've already thrown that possibility away.
3. The most logical thing for you to do is to ally yourself with the Reapers, and claim to have allied yourself with the Alliance. Then you have protection from Reaper nightkill attempts, and protection from lynch.
Long Con wrote:Epignosis, how skilled are you at mind games, in relation to the average player?
I'm not a safe lynch. I'm a dumb lynch.gfishfunk wrote: My thinking is that Epi is the safest lynch, possibly also making him the best lynch for that reason. I for one think Epi is being honest.
Depends on what time of day it is I guess. I don't really know how skilled the average person is, so I really couldn't say.Long Con wrote:Epignosis, how skilled are you at mind games, in relation to the average player?
Epignosis wrote:Depends on what time of day it is I guess. I don't really know how skilled the average person is, so I really couldn't say.Long Con wrote:Epignosis, how skilled are you at mind games, in relation to the average player?
I will say this: I have thirty minutes to write fifty baseball lineups. So I am going away for a little bit.
LOL that's fair. Let's get some more points on the 'Lynched' side then, so you don't have a stroke.Epignosis wrote:First, I can confidently say that when it comes to drawing an early Night kill, I am in the top ten percent on this site. My lynched/killed splits are so lopsided they could have had a stroke.
Second, people have remarked multiple times about my cagey behavior early on- what is the purpose of that? Mafia might speculate that I was keeping a low profile to protect a juicy ability. That's just one of several possibilities, but mafia have never needed a good reason to kill me before.
HAAAAAAA, yes, I love it. Look at the reactions after the nightkill.Finally, I find it amusing that I'm being asked about mafia kill strategy by a guy who had his own team Night kill him. Seriously.
I don't expect anyone to automatically believe the things I say. I expect them to consider them, and decide for themselves if they sound like the truth or not. What I said is the truth.With few exceptions, I don't automatically believe anything you say that begins with "I wouldn't have..." Your argument gives the appearance of thinking things through when you already know what you believe. It served a purpose.Long Con wrote: If that's what I believed, then I wouldn't have made the argument against the roleblock stopping the kill. If I knew you were bad because I was bad and tried to kill you, then I would assume that the roleblock thing was true. I defended you against the roleblock thing. I didn't suspect you until you started this wishy-washy hintclaim business.
I'm the hero they deserve. It's fine for you to "reveal your master plan" after it all happens, but what actually happened has a lot less of the cool action than your story does. You, claiming a role at all, is what looked fishy to me, because you and your ego, when Civ, are a much harder wall to lay seige to. You don't get worried or nervous, and thus would feel no need to claim. You said it yourself, you enjoy proving all the idiots who voted for you wrong. Civilian fucking Epi is not going to crack on Day 2 and reveal his role over three votes. Ever.You precisely suspecting me when I claimed Vega (and over being nervous!) makes me think you felt like you had me cornered and caught, and you just needed to make your move.
All of this, I grant, is circumstantial evidence, but it's precisely the evidence I was looking for. Lots of people were content with my claim and found it believable, which is what I expected to happen, but I was watching for someone to call bullshit and try to be a hero and get me lynched. Turns out that hero was you.
But you claim you haven't chosen yet, because you want to try and hold everyone hostage in the most Civ-friendly of ways in order to save your life. If you get lynched today, will you choose Alliance just to be able to give us a "My role says "by the end of the third Night phase." It says nothing about having to choose during a Night phase. If I chose a side right now, that satisfies that requirement. I read my role very carefully before doing what I did.Long Con wrote:I think I'm missing something here. If we lynch you today, then you don't get to align with anyone, and you lose the game, cold and alone.
No, not a Reaper. And your protection is thiiiiiiin. And you have no protection from lynches at this point because you haven't chosen a side.1. Parasites don't vote. My existence does not count for the purpose of deciding the game, but my existence will have an effect on what the endgame scenario is. And may I remind the Alliance that they need Cerberus dead just as much as I do. Regardless of which way I go, I do have value to the civilians.Long Con wrote: Speaking of "bad logic".Lemme lay out some important facts:
1. Alliance or Reaper, your presence does not help that team win: "You will not be counted among their numbers though for the purposes of deciding the game." You are nothing but a parasite.
2. If you join the Reapers, you're still a possible liability to them, because you don't get to know who they are. And now, because you outed yourself, they won't even be able to signal you with subtlety, because everyone will be watching for that. So you've already thrown that possibility away.
3. The most logical thing for you to do is to ally yourself with the Reapers, and claim to have allied yourself with the Alliance. Then you have protection from Reaper nightkill attempts, and protection from lynch.
2. You act like I haven't thought any of this through. Your tone here sounds like you are upset that I didn't play it differently. Are you a Reaper, LC?
3. I already have protection from night kill attempts and lynches. See point numero uno.
DrWilgy wrote:So here's my primary concern.
If Epi sides with the Reapers, he is only an extra vote right?
Lynching him now doesn't do anything for us.
How about we lynch a Reaper and get his vote power on civ side instead of being distracted by his role.
I need to reveiw Epi's interactions with everyone. Primarily LC and see if I agree with him on what a baddie would do given those actions.
First glance I'm inclined to believe he's right regarding baddie interactions, due to his early to die meta. I'm also inclined to believe due to LC (a syndicater) being the potential interacting baddie.
My final question. Would Epi's team purposely not put in a kill, for this plot, on the chance that someone could counter claim? I don't see it.
Just because I trust that your town, doesn't mean I think your right.DrWilgy wrote:Can we aim to at leas make Gfish the alternate wagon?
Hmm... a thought. I'm damn near a unanimous town read. Yet little to no one is voting with me.
Who legitimately thinks that I am just wrong out of this group.
Noticed that too. I thought it was a Syndicate thing.Jackofhearts2005 wrote:Reapers:
They kill on Nights 1, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 10, 12 (and so on with even-numbered nights)
Cerberus:
They kill on Nights 1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 9, 11, 13 (and so on with odd-numbered nights)
I meant to post this earlier. The fuck is this about?
Is this supposed to be a compromise between Realms rules where all scumteams kill every night and Syndicate rules where (based on the one double mafia Syndicate game I've played) the scum teams alternate between kill nights?
Seems very mathematical, doesn't it?
Number of mafia kills goes 2,1,1,2,1,1,2 then 1 for the rest of the game.
DrWilgy wrote:Can we aim to at leas make Gfish the alternate wagon?
Hmm... a thought. I'm damn near a unanimous town read. Yet little to no one is voting with me.
Who legitimately thinks that I am just wrong out of this group.
I will post this caveat. You've mostly seen Jack in majority games not plurality games. I know the plurality thing effects my voting.Fredwood wrote:DrWilgy wrote:Can we aim to at leas make Gfish the alternate wagon?
Hmm... a thought. I'm damn near a unanimous town read. Yet little to no one is voting with me.
Who legitimately thinks that I am just wrong out of this group.
I think the bigger issue for me is the vote manipulation. Gfish is a good candidate, right now we have such a wide list of suspects that adding another leaves us open to vote manipulation having a greater effect on the outcome. I did list fish as an asterisk on my main post, but seeing as how nobody is really moving to a consensus of one or two people, pushing him felt like a dangerous proposition.
Jack moving to Epi of all the other options just keeps adding to the reason why I want to vote for Jack, despite my Risk/Reward analysis. Jack's defense doesn't feel like he's defending himself but trying to get us to look at other people we want to lynch. I think a townie Jack sticks to his guns on Silver, not switch to epi. There's been plenty of times I recall Jack not going for the easy lynch when he was town, going for the easy lynch now is suspect.
http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... start=1000Fredwood wrote:All the more reason for Jack to stay on Silver at this point. Less is required to lynch him. The game in which I played with him here that was plurality he stuck to his guns on his reads to the point of tunneling.
I think the best defense for Jack is "self-preservation" but here, even if you're dead you get a win if your faction wins. So self-preservation is less of a motivation, the greater good is a better motivation. Switching to Epi screams of self-preservation not enforcing the greater good and staying on Silver. If he goes down as town still doggedly pursuing Silver, then it's a direction the town is more likely to go down now. By switching to epi he's just muddled his pressure of SIlver as just being opportunistic.
Yeah, I became something of a Daily Fantasy Sports nerd last year. I have my hot and cold streaks, but I earn a decent profit, such as it is. I'm trying to get consistent with baseball. Baseball was the only sport last year I played regularly that I lost money on. I'm trying to make that not the case this year.Fredwood wrote:Epignosis wrote:Depends on what time of day it is I guess. I don't really know how skilled the average person is, so I really couldn't say.Long Con wrote:Epignosis, how skilled are you at mind games, in relation to the average player?
I will say this: I have thirty minutes to write fifty baseball lineups. So I am going away for a little bit.
I'm intrigued DFB, or what?
Please explain.Adam wrote:Ignore that link, tried cutting and pasting from quick reply to full reply and posted a link to the game thread.
I was trying to respond to Fred that I think Jack is playing uncharacteristically opportunistic. He seems thrown off his normal town game. I would have expected town Jack to have better found his footing at this point.
Is there a way to get post numbers or am I going to have to do this the hard way?Jackofhearts2005 wrote:@Adam
Specifically, what posts that SVS has made do you like and why?
It's just the constant unproductive back and forth about with Dom and about rainbow lists. Which, to be fair, is as much on the other half of these conversations as on you. I do think you tend to "lack footing" as scum more than town.Jackofhearts2005 wrote:Please explain.Adam wrote:Ignore that link, tried cutting and pasting from quick reply to full reply and posted a link to the game thread.
I was trying to respond to Fred that I think Jack is playing uncharacteristically opportunistic. He seems thrown off his normal town game. I would have expected town Jack to have better found his footing at this point.
I have several scum reads, including two I'm almost totally sure of.
I have several strong town reads as well.
To what extend would you expect me to "find my footing" normally that I haven't, here? Do you think I lack "footing" when I am scum?
Or is this mostly a response to people not just following me like they tend to on the Realms? It's easier to push a train with majority voting because you HAVE to make a decision earlier. Here, players are encouraged to stand their ground alone on one vote trains and you can lynch with three votes. Harder to convince people to follow imo.
At first I was probably a misguided civvie, now I am suddenly bad? I am far from ignoring you. And you are just No U-ing Dom, and now me. I play differently than most people, I am sorry you think it is lazy. It is not.Jackofhearts2005 wrote:Adam is null. Look into him later. Confident in my ability to read late game Adam and not early game Adam.
Nifty is town.
Dom is maybe town.
Wigly is for sure town.
Dizzy is maybe scum.
Epi is for sure scum or potential scum. Thanks for claiming, Epi.
Fred is for sure town.
GFish is probably still scum. I was really sure of him yesterday but he's been following my vote and not engaging with me. Everything from him today would look legit if I wasn't here. Worrisome. Need to reISO.
Raven is null. Same has Adam. I can find him later.
LC is still town.
MP is probably still town. Where did he go, especially on GFish? Possible distancing. Need to reISO. I was so sure he was town on Day One. Need to find that again or pick at it.
Nutella is probably bad. Forget the Realms weapons triangle. She's passive. Not insitefuo. Where is supertown Nutella? Why is she ignoring me?
Silver is bad for sure. Not trying. Not being legit. "Bah, vote Jack. He's scum" is not a defense and it is not scumhunting.
SVS is probably scum. Taking the easy path. Ignoring me. Doesn't want me to defend myself against Dom. Lazy townie at best.
Tony is town. Totally legit. He's trying.
Note to self: put in some no w/w reads and order this into a black and white bow.
I focused on Epi early phase, and then tried to engage both Immortal_Raven and Silver. I chatted with some others without really saying much of anything. I wasn't as interested in engaging people that were already engaged.Adam wrote:Dom seems extraordinarily focused on Jack. Wilgy seems almost as focused on gfish. I feel like gfish and Jack haven't interacted as much as on Day 2 as on Day 1. Possibly teammates? I could definitely see a mafia with Jack and gfish going for cbob night 1.
http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/postin ... 1326&f=194Adam wrote:Is there a way to get post numbers or am I going to have to do this the hard way?Jackofhearts2005 wrote:@Adam
Specifically, what posts that SVS has made do you like and why?
No, I didn't mean the post count of the players. I mean, what number is this post, and can I go back and refer to a particular post by number instead of having to quote each one I want to list.gfishfunk wrote:http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/postin ... 1326&f=194Adam wrote:Is there a way to get post numbers or am I going to have to do this the hard way?Jackofhearts2005 wrote:@Adam
Specifically, what posts that SVS has made do you like and why?
Its in the normal place. Same as the realms.
At first, you posted statements that demonstrated you did not understand my posts aimed at Nutella and MP and you asked for clarification. That reads confused town.S~V~S wrote:At first I was probably a misguided civvie, now I am suddenly bad? I am far from ignoring you. And you are just No U-ing Dom, and now me. I play differently than most people, I am sorry you think it is lazy. It is not.Jackofhearts2005 wrote:Adam is null. Look into him later. Confident in my ability to read late game Adam and not early game Adam.
Nifty is town.
Dom is maybe town.
Wigly is for sure town.
Dizzy is maybe scum.
Epi is for sure scum or potential scum. Thanks for claiming, Epi.
Fred is for sure town.
GFish is probably still scum. I was really sure of him yesterday but he's been following my vote and not engaging with me. Everything from him today would look legit if I wasn't here. Worrisome. Need to reISO.
Raven is null. Same has Adam. I can find him later.
LC is still town.
MP is probably still town. Where did he go, especially on GFish? Possible distancing. Need to reISO. I was so sure he was town on Day One. Need to find that again or pick at it.
Nutella is probably bad. Forget the Realms weapons triangle. She's passive. Not insitefuo. Where is supertown Nutella? Why is she ignoring me?
Silver is bad for sure. Not trying. Not being legit. "Bah, vote Jack. He's scum" is not a defense and it is not scumhunting.
SVS is probably scum. Taking the easy path. Ignoring me. Doesn't want me to defend myself against Dom. Lazy townie at best.
Tony is town. Totally legit. He's trying.
Note to self: put in some no w/w reads and order this into a black and white bow.
It doesn't hurt the town and removes someone with incentive to vote against the town.DrWilgy wrote:If Epi sides with the Reapers, he is only an extra vote right?
Lynching him now doesn't do anything for us.
Sounds great. Which one is the Reaper, exactly? Do you have a plan to find a Reaper and lynch a Reaper specifically? Or a plan to lynch scum other than repeatedly asking people to lynch me (or someone else in the alternative)?DrWilgy wrote:How about we lynch a Reaper and get his vote power on civ side instead of being distracted by his role.
I agree that his reasoning might be right, and we can definitely pursue it whether or not he is around anymore.DrWilgy wrote:I need to reveiw Epi's interactions with everyone. Primarily LC and see if I agree with him on what a baddie would do given those actions.
First glance I'm inclined to believe he's right regarding baddie interactions, due to his early to die meta. I'm also inclined to believe due to LC (a syndicater) being the potential interacting baddie.
I don't think anyone suggested that as a possibility. I also don't see it.DrWilgy wrote:My final question. Would Epi's team purposely not put in a kill, for this plot, on the chance that someone could counter claim? I don't see it.
I think you should talk more about nickles.Jackofhearts2005 wrote:If I had a nickel for every pair of players that together think I am both spending too much time on Dom and also not enough time on Dom or too much time defending myself and also not enough time defending myself, I could buy a pack of gum.
DrWilgy wrote:Also it seems Gfish is most likely with Cerberus.
Epi being the safe lynch is only true for Cerberus. It's also the easiest lynch for a Cerberus player.
1. Why do you think that I am Cerberus out of the five players on the lynch?Epignosis 5 - Long Con (9), Dyslexicon (14), Jackofhearts2005 (18), gfishfunk (20), Immortal_Raven (21)
It absolutely does hurt. You have one fewer opportunity to meet your objective and give me zero incentive to even consider siding with the civilians in this conflict.gfishfunk wrote:It doesn't hurt the town and removes someone with incentive to vote against the town.DrWilgy wrote:If Epi sides with the Reapers, he is only an extra vote right?
Lynching him now doesn't do anything for us.
Ask anybody who knows: I don't miss kill opportunities. Ever. You don't win by keeping civilians alive.gfishfunk wrote:I don't think anyone suggested that as a possibility. I also don't see it.DrWilgy wrote:My final question. Would Epi's team purposely not put in a kill, for this plot, on the chance that someone could counter claim? I don't see it.
I see.Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Epi is for sure scum or potential scum. Thanks for claiming, Epi.
Tbh, I've barely read today. Work and such.gfishfunk wrote:DrWilgy wrote:Also it seems Gfish is most likely with Cerberus.
Epi being the safe lynch is only true for Cerberus. It's also the easiest lynch for a Cerberus player.1. Why do you think that I am Cerberus out of the five players on the lynch?Epignosis 5 - Long Con (9), Dyslexicon (14), Jackofhearts2005 (18), gfishfunk (20), Immortal_Raven (21)
2. Between Long Con and Dyslexicon (those two specifically), which do you think are scum based on Epignosis' reasoning.
Remember, Epignosis stated that he was getting a town reading from me AFTER I pulled my vote but BEFORE he stated his reasoning. His reasoning was that anyone that caught his fake claim would know it was wrong because they tried to kill him, thus voting for him after his claim was known rather than before it was scummy.
You barely read my post let alone this phase.DrWilgy wrote:Tbh, I've barely read today. Work and such.
The freshest thought I have on you is that 80% you are bad and 20% I just want validation at this point.
Your RB claim is bs btw.
Assuming Epignosis is The Geth, he sides with the Reapers and they are one less player to kill to win; one step closer to Reaper victory.Epignosis wrote:I'm so pleased I'm not a civilian in this. If I were, I'd be losing my shit right now.
Six people currently think (or are pretending to think) that lynching someone who is non-hostile is in the best interest of the civilians.
There are seventeen alive.
Only nine of those are civilians.
Six are bad.
Two are independent.
I'm a non-hostile independent regardless of which way I go, because nobody needs me dead to win and I can't kill. I would assume, then, that the one independent who is not me is hostile. That's seven roles civilians have to eliminate somehow, and lynches are the most insightful and dependable way to do that.
Looking at those numbers, the civilians can afford (in a worst case scenario) three bad lynches.
Lynching me is in essence a no-lynch- like the Day phase never happened- and one of you will die, so it's like there were two kills Night 1.
But carry on. Keep playing it "safe."
I disagree. Scum factions need to hunt each other and will be looking at nightkilling each other if possible.Epignosis wrote:Looking at those numbers, the civilians can afford (in a worst case scenario) three bad lynches.
Homie, you aren't hunting. You want to look like you are hunting, but you aren't.gfishfunk wrote:You barely read my post let alone this phase.DrWilgy wrote:Tbh, I've barely read today. Work and such.
The freshest thought I have on you is that 80% you are bad and 20% I just want validation at this point.
Your RB claim is bs btw.
Why do you think I'm bad? And don't just say because I'm going after Epi - that is confirmation bias. Say why you think I am scum.