The Syndicate

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Apr 25, 2021 7:23 pm


@MacDougall dies and flips town
@Gavial dies and flips town
@Made dies and flips...mafia!
@Poison dies and flips town

Long Con flips town.

D2 will end April 26 at 7pm EDT. Three people must be sent to the losers bracket, and you will have three votes apiece.

PEOPLE WHO CAN POST:
@Kylemii
@Marmot
@falcon45ca
@G-Man
@DrWilgy
@Moghedien
@hollowkatt


People who CANNOT post:
@Alison
@Timsup2nothin
@TonyStarkPrime
@DaisyCloud

Your postcaps are these plus 100:

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 6:16 pm kyle voting for everyone in the top eight not named made is astounding

Marmot wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 5:17 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 6:16 pm kyle voting for everyone in the top eight not named made is astounding

I see that you kinda already talked about this here, but why didn't you vote Made? Made did ask to be sent to the LB.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 5:14 pm

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 4:49 pm

Kylemii wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 4:45 pm

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 4:43 pm I kinda like the idea of putting kyle at 2 and everyone else at 1 and seeing what happens

it's a really bad idea but it's exciting and I do appreciate that.

real talk: Do you think you get chopped over TSP? How about over Daisy? Tim?
Like if you and I go down it'll be me, you, tim, daisy, tsp, and g-man down there.

I mean I hope to get chopped alongside those 2 of those people.

the problem isn't anything to do with that suspicion it's that I've not really done anything to remove myself from the PoE, if we make it to the final 5 with 2 mafia alive, if even one town person thinks I'm mafia and votes as such then that's just game over, right? and despite there being only a thin case against me, there's not much of a case for me either. I can't really point to anything that I've done that I could only do as town because I've basically only been a cell phone boy for this entire game up until now, and also I guess, including now.

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 5:19 pm

Kylemii wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 5:14 pm

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 4:49 pm

Kylemii wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 4:45 pm

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 4:43 pm I kinda like the idea of putting kyle at 2 and everyone else at 1 and seeing what happens

it's a really bad idea but it's exciting and I do appreciate that.

real talk: Do you think you get chopped over TSP? How about over Daisy? Tim?
Like if you and I go down it'll be me, you, tim, daisy, tsp, and g-man down there.

I mean I hope to get chopped alongside those 2 of those people.

the problem isn't anything to do with that suspicion it's that I've not really done anything to remove myself from the PoE, if we make it to the final 5 with 2 mafia alive, if even one town person thinks I'm mafia and votes as such then that's just game over, right? and despite there being only a thin case against me, there's not much of a case for me either. I can't really point to anything that I've done that I could only do as town because I've basically only been a cell phone boy for this entire game up until now, and also I guess, including now.

sure, but can you tonally be town for 3 days while not putting a foot wrong? because that's what I see you have going for yourself.

Marmot wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 5:18 pm

Marmot wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 5:17 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 6:16 pm kyle voting for everyone in the top eight not named made is astounding

I see that you kinda already talked about this here, but why didn't you vote Made? Made did ask to be sent to the LB.

This is for @Kylemii

Marmot wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 5:20 pm Kyle, when you say things like that, I both don't want to send you down and get paranoid you're WIFOMing me lol

Stop it!!!

Marmot wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 5:40 pm I bet you want to hear the rest of that though.

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 5:36 pm kinda want to say "nobody vote marmot" and then "marmot use all your posts doing what you just did" for those of us who are going to be playing on

Timsup2nothin wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:01 pm A'ight, I have thought about this a lot.

I'm gonna lay out what I think happened, what I think town can and should do to win the game, and then I'm probably just gonna dip, because my nature is to fight for my life and this is that one bad situation where that is the wrong thing to do. So here we go.

I think on day one we were all sort of lackadaisical about figuring out the implications of the setup, and we blundered into sending Made to the bracket. On N1 we killed him. Yay us. But I think that was the only wolf we really had a shot at. It would have been way too easy to save Made, between Made's uncast votes and the votes of another wolf.eight people throwing votes all over the place? Who would know? So we got the wolf we had available.

Day two the upper bracket really sort of luffed it. They sent down three people without really any consideration for whether they were wolves. Volunteers to kill Alison. Slankers that just needed to die before LYLO. Easy enough to just stay in the upper bracket and watch seven town choose meaningless kills.

The good news is that night two we did resolve Alison, who was a mischop waiting to happen, and eliminate the two slankers.

So here is how town wins. @TonyStarkPrime @DaisyCloud @G-Man, kill me and the two new arrivals. That gets you to F5 (unless it just wins). Kill the upper bracket people, one after the other.

Win game.

See you in post game.

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:19 pm also @Timsup2nothin vote me you wanker

Timsup2nothin wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:22 pm

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:19 pm also @Timsup2nothin vote me you wanker

If TSP was a wolf he could have saved Made.

And I had to wait for the poll to open.

Gavial wrote: ↑Sat Apr 24, 2021 10:38 pm Also if I had to take a gut gamble and if we assume scum is playing well and 2 scum consist within the Winner’s bracket.
Here’s where I’m at:
Winners Bracket

Marmot - Def Town
Kyle - Prob Town
Hollow - Gut Scum
G-Man - Prob Town
Wilgy - Null Slight Leany Villager
Mog - Gut Scum
Falcon - Def Town

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:23 pm

Timsup2nothin wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:22 pm

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:19 pm also @Timsup2nothin vote me you wanker

If TSP was a wolf he could have saved Made.

And I had to wait for the poll to open.

Why would TSP the wolf save Made? It outs him as wolf to do so, and if not outs at the very least makes him a very juicy chop target the next "night", yeah?
TSP NOT saving Made here is the right play for TSP if he is a wolf.

But talk to me more about me, because you and I both know that's exactly why I'm here

Timsup2nothin wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:29 pm

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:23 pm

Timsup2nothin wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:22 pm

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:19 pm also @Timsup2nothin vote me you wanker

If TSP was a wolf he could have saved Made.

And I had to wait for the poll to open.

Why would TSP the wolf save Made? It outs him as wolf to do so, and if not outs at the very least makes him a very juicy chop target the next "night", yeah?
TSP NOT saving Made here is the right play for TSP if he is a wolf.

But talk to me more about me, because you and I both know that's exactly why I'm here

You are here to kill me. What more is there to say?

And by save I don't mean some last second vote shenanigans...I mean TSP could easily have set it up so that Made wasn't in the chops N1...anyone could have. We could have and should have pushed Alison over then. Made could have voted her as a self pres. If there was another wolf around, ez pz Made survives. There was just no other wolf around.

So here's the thing...I have no case on you. I have a POE of four with two wolves in it and town has five kills. Hopefully me and my POE. Hopefully I got it right. <shrug>

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 10:03 pm

Moghedien wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 9:52 pm

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 9:50 pm @Moghedien what's the most townie thing you've done?

I'm not sure exactly how you would qualify this, but I helped send Made to the Losers Bracket. That's more than you or Kyle can say.

I'm not accusing you of being a wolf, I'm trying to understand how we've gotten ourselves into this situation. Asking someone what's the most townie thing they've done can catch wolves out b/c they're not really expecting it and therefore don't have an answer prepared.
I think you're town, I think Marmot is town. Kyle I'm not sold on.
I thought Tim was town up till seeing the flips today, now I'm not sure about that read at all.

I also don't think TSP is town.

I like G-Man for town for sure, and think that it's likely that Daisy is town too.

In list form:

Townies:
HK
Mogh
Marmot
Daisy
G-Man

Not Townies
Tim
Kyle
TSP

I worry if I'm misclearing Daisy the most, then you, then marmot, then g-man.
I worry about Daisy b/c I have a hard time separating out what's legit in her posts and what's native AtE. Not saying she weaponizes AtE but that it's kind of an inherent part of her play style.
I worry that I've miscleared you because while I agree with a lot of what you're saying and you did help send Made to LB that isn't clearing in and of itself except that if you DID send Made down you had help sending him and even then you don't know they actually chop him so yeah, no, you're good.

If I'm misclearing Marmot it's entirely on feels and melding and that's my bad then. What do you think of Marmot?

G-Man I have an incredibly hard time buying as a wolf. he's just been right on things

G-Man wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:38 pm

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 10:03 pm

Moghedien wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 9:52 pm

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 9:50 pm @Moghedien what's the most townie thing you've done?

I'm not sure exactly how you would qualify this, but I helped send Made to the Losers Bracket. That's more than you or Kyle can say.

I'm not accusing you of being a wolf, I'm trying to understand how we've gotten ourselves into this situation. Asking someone what's the most townie thing they've done can catch wolves out b/c they're not really expecting it and therefore don't have an answer prepared.
I think you're town, I think Marmot is town. Kyle I'm not sold on.
I thought Tim was town up till seeing the flips today, now I'm not sure about that read at all.

I also don't think TSP is town.

I like G-Man for town for sure, and think that it's likely that Daisy is town too.

In list form:

Townies:
HK
Mogh
Marmot
Daisy
G-Man

Not Townies
Tim
Kyle
TSP

I worry if I'm misclearing Daisy the most, then you, then marmot, then g-man.
I worry about Daisy b/c I have a hard time separating out what's legit in her posts and what's native AtE. Not saying she weaponizes AtE but that it's kind of an inherent part of her play style.
I worry that I've miscleared you because while I agree with a lot of what you're saying and you did help send Made to LB that isn't clearing in and of itself except that if you DID send Made down you had help sending him and even then you don't know they actually chop him so yeah, no, you're good.

If I'm misclearing Marmot it's entirely on feels and melding and that's my bad then. What do you think of Marmot?

G-Man I have an incredibly hard time buying as a wolf. he's just been right on things

Seeing that pink part caught me off my guard today. That second sentence is pretty important to me. If you're a civvie, I will be amused, because you don't know how much I struggle to form reads on people yet because this is our first game together. If you are a baddie, that sentence reads to me like you're rubbing my face in the fact that I haven't been right about much at all even though I've shown my civvie nature through all the other wonky effort I've thrown out there.

If it's the former, LOL. If it's the latter, I won't forget it.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:54 pm HK, can i ask why you think that Tim and i can't be wolves together or at least shouldn't be yote together? this is in regards to your statement that today should be Tony + Me or Tim + a third indeterminate person.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 10:54 pm i think the best case Send is Marmot+HK, i think the more realistic Send is Me+HK/Marmot.

that said, Mog acting like it's our responsibility to listen to what the people in the other bracket wants so the decision is out of our hands pings my meter off the charts.

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:38 pm @G-Man What does your reading of the thread tell you about where/who wolves are? Like put aside the vote data for a hot second and lets just talk about reads and how you're feeling about things.
We've got about 24 hours or so to figure this out and I'd like to get as much data and information into teh thread as I can.

@Timsup2nothin did you see my post about the players in the WB and why I read them the way I do? Do you have any disagreements or issues with that?

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:34 pm

Timsup2nothin wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:29 pm

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:23 pm

Timsup2nothin wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:22 pm

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:19 pm also @Timsup2nothin vote me you wanker

If TSP was a wolf he could have saved Made.

And I had to wait for the poll to open.

Why would TSP the wolf save Made? It outs him as wolf to do so, and if not outs at the very least makes him a very juicy chop target the next "night", yeah?
TSP NOT saving Made here is the right play for TSP if he is a wolf.

But talk to me more about me, because you and I both know that's exactly why I'm here

You are here to kill me. What more is there to say?

And by save I don't mean some last second vote shenanigans...I mean TSP could easily have set it up so that Made wasn't in the chops N1...anyone could have. We could have and should have pushed Alison over then. Made could have voted her as a self pres. If there was another wolf around, ez pz Made survives. There was just no other wolf around.

So here's the thing...I have no case on you. I have a POE of four with two wolves in it and town has five kills. Hopefully me and my POE. Hopefully I got it right. <shrug>

How am I in your POE though, that's what I'm trying to get at.
I understand we can only kill players in this bracket. So by all technicalities this bracket is the POE BUT what puts Me in there specifically for you?
What makes me more likely wolf than anyone else here who's not you?

Timsup2nothin wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:01 pm A'ight, I have thought about this a lot.

I'm gonna lay out what I think happened, what I think town can and should do to win the game, and then I'm probably just gonna dip, because my nature is to fight for my life and this is that one bad situation where that is the wrong thing to do. So here we go.

I think on day one we were all sort of lackadaisical about figuring out the implications of the setup, and we blundered into sending Made to the bracket. On N1 we killed him. Yay us. But I think that was the only wolf we really had a shot at. It would have been way too easy to save Made, between Made's uncast votes and the votes of another wolf.eight people throwing votes all over the place? Who would know? So we got the wolf we had available.

Day two the upper bracket really sort of luffed it. They sent down three people without really any consideration for whether they were wolves. Volunteers to kill Alison. Slankers that just needed to die before LYLO. Easy enough to just stay in the upper bracket and watch seven town choose meaningless kills.

The good news is that night two we did resolve Alison, who was a mischop waiting to happen, and eliminate the two slankers.

So here is how town wins. @TonyStarkPrime @DaisyCloud @G-Man, kill me and the two new arrivals. That gets you to F5 (unless it just wins). Kill the upper bracket people, one after the other.

Win game.

See you in post game.

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:26 pm What clears Daisy for you Tim?

I think both of us are town reading G-Man, yeah? But we do need to have a talk about him as well.

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 11:00 pm Who do you think is wolfing here Kyle and why?

G-Man wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:29 pm Somehow we managed to leave the only other two players who voted for Made on Day 1 in the WB. We can't sort a possible Made-bussing out until endgame. Oof.

Tim and Daisy voted for Made N1. I can't find a vote tag in Tim's ISO, and he only had a few short interactions with Made a few hours before the vote. Daisy didn't mention Made much during Night 1, but she ended up voting for him. He made it into her POE by virtue of civ-reading other people. After she checked Made's ISO, she was more comfortable voting there because his posts seemed (correctly) to be fluff. Of the two who voted for Made N1, I civ-read Daisy more.


Gavial was pretty sensible and correct about a number of things. Here's what he thought of the original WB:

Gavial wrote: ↑Sat Apr 24, 2021 10:38 pm Also if I had to take a gut gamble and if we assume scum is playing well and 2 scum consist within the Winner’s bracket.
Here’s where I’m at:
Winners Bracket

Marmot - Def Town
Kyle - Prob Town
Hollow - Gut Scum
G-Man - Prob Town
Wilgy - Null Slight Leany Villager
Mog - Gut Scum
Falcon - Def Town

Vote data time! I made myself green, because I know I'm town and you have to have a tin foil IV drip to think otherwise.

DAY 1 VOTES:

ALISON (11): Alison, Gavial, hollowkat, Kyle, Long Con, MacDougall, Made, Marmot, Moghedien, Poison, Tim

MACDOUGALL (10): Alison, G-Man, Gavial, Kyle, Lon Con, Made, Marmot, Moghedien, Poison, Tim

TIM (7): Alison, Gavial, hollowkat, Kyle, Long Con, Made, Moghedien

DAISY (6): Alison, hollowkat, Kyle, Long Con, Moghedien, Tony

GAVIAL (6): Daisy, hollowkat, Kyle, Long Con, MacDougall, Moghedien

MADE (6): G-Man, Gavial, Long Con, MacDougall, Marmot, Moghedien

POISON (6): G-Man, Gavial, hollowkat, Kyle, MacDougall, Tony

TONY (6): hollowkat, Kyle, Long Con, Made, Marmot, Mohegdien

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KYLE (5): G-Man, Gavial, MacDougall, Marmot, Tony

MARMOT (5): hollowkat, Kyle, MacDougall, Made, Marmot

FALCON (4): G-Man, Long Con, MacDougall, Tony

G-MAN (4): G-Man, Gavial, Mohegdien, Tony

WILGY (4): Gavial, hollowkat, Marmot, Tony

MOHEGDIEN (3): Daisy, G-Man, Long Con

HOLLOWKAT (2): Daisy, G-Man

LONG CON (2): MacDougall, Tony




*********************************************************************************************



NIGHT 1 VOTES:

MACDOUGALL (5): Daisy, Gavial, Made, Poison, Tim

GAVIAL (4): MacDougall, Poison, Tim, Tony

MADE (4): Daisy, MacDougall, Poison, Tim

POISON* (3): Gavial, MacDougall, Tony

--------------------------------------------

ALISON (3): Daisy, Gavial, Tim

TIM (3): Alison, Gavial, MacDougall

TONY (2): Daisy, Poison

DAISY (0)




*********************************************************************************************


DAY 2 VOTES:

G-MAN (5): Falcon, G-Man, Kyle, Marmot, Wilgy

FALCON (4): G-Man, hollowkat, Kyle, Wilgy

WILGY (4): G-Man, hollowkat, Kyle, Marmot

--------------------------------------------

KYLE (2): Falcon, Wilgy

MOGHEDIEN (1): Falcon

HOLLOWKAT (0)

MARMOT (0)




*********************************************************************************************


NIGHT 2 VOTES:

ALISON (5): Daisy, Falcon, G-Man, Tim, Tony

FALCON (5): Daisy, G-Man, Tim, Tony, Wilgy

WILGY (3): Falcon, Tim, Tony

--------------------------------------------

TONY (2): G-Man, Wilgy

DAISY (1): Falcon

TIM (1): Wilgy

G-MAN (0)




*********************************************************************************************


DAY 3 VOTES:

KYLE (3): hollowkat, Kyle, Moghedien

HOLLOWKAT (2): hollowkat, Moghedien

--------------------------------------------

MARMOT (1): Kyle

MOGHEDIEN (0)


@Timsup2nothin- Why did you only cast 2 of your allotted 8 votes on Day 1?

@DaisyCloud- What do you think of HK and Moghedien (your only D1 votes remaining) at this stage of the game?

HK, Kyle, and Moghedien have their names all over the D1 LB folks. In fact, HK and Kyle voted similarly 7 of 8 times. Mog & Kyle voted similarly 6 of 8. Mog & HK only 5 of 8. I need to go back through their ISOs and look at their reasons for those D1 votes. At first glance, more information can be gleaned from chopping WB folks, but we have to play chicken with LYLO to actually get all the info, which could lose us the game.

Based on the fact that Tim only voted 2/8 D1, Tony's 7 votes include 4 on confirmed town and 1 on me, plus one on Daisy & Kyle, means we won't learn a whole lot from their chops. Daisy voted 3/8- one for a confirmed civ, and two who were low on most folks' radars- one we can chop today, and one that cant. Not much to learn about Daisy there either.

I had high hopes for my colorful vote scrutiny, but it looks like I was being mostly a derp on that front. If we chop a baddie today, we might be able to squeeze something out of the vote data, but it won't be as bountiful as I had hoped.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 11:38 pm

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 11:00 pm Who do you think is wolfing here Kyle and why?

i lowkey just think it might be marmot and daisy but that's a vibes only read, lemme finish deleting all my animal crossing mail and i'll look things through

Kylemii wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 11:38 pm

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 11:00 pm Who do you think is wolfing here Kyle and why?

i lowkey just think it might be marmot and daisy but that's a vibes only read, lemme finish deleting all my animal crossing mail and i'll look things through

G-Man wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 11:08 pm

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:38 pm @G-Man What does your reading of the thread tell you about where/who wolves are? Like put aside the vote data for a hot second and lets just talk about reads and how you're feeling about things.
We've got about 24 hours or so to figure this out and I'd like to get as much data and information into teh thread as I can.

@Timsup2nothin did you see my post about the players in the WB and why I read them the way I do? Do you have any disagreements or issues with that?

Simply put, we have to assume there are two baddies here among the six of us. That means the POE starts at five, because I'm not mafia. After reading Daisy's progression on Made, I feel that I can remove her from the POE. That leaves Tim as the only possible busser of Made on Night 1 who also voted to ensure the biggest death-tunnel threats were on or near the chopping block; or Tony was the teammate who didn't use all his votes, avoided his partner, and opted to not break the tie for Chop #4 in the poll.

If it's Tim AND Tony, then sacrificing one of their own helps them avoid additional scrutiny and prevents the WB folks from barging in N2 with the goal to chop only LB folks. Throw a bone to the civvies because you can keep Alison around as a distraction for another night and an easy mis-chop post-Mac-flip.

I need to re-read Kyle's ISO in light of all the civvie flips. I was meh on him D1, and I would have probably advocated for him coming down for N2 instead of Wilgy but I didn't have time and I don't know if I could have persuaded enough people. Moghedien didn't vote at all D2, which makes them more sus in my book than Marmot, even though I know that Marmot can be a sneaky evil mountain rat. Gun-to-head, I'm content chopping Kyle based on outdated information.

HK- we mind-melded a little bit earlier in the game when it came to strategy and that clouded my perception of you through D2 and part of D3. I want to believe you are a civvie, but I have to be willing to waffle on you now just as I've come to waffle on Tim. I understand your frustration about the data crunching. Sadly, I have a tendency to start things and fail to se them through per my initial vision. I'm big on ideas but I struggle in the execution of those ideas.

So yeah, I'll be spending some time tomorrow ISOing the four of you. Today, I'm content to lose to Daisy is she's snookered me. If I can find the time, I'm going to work up scenarios involving pairings, assuming we have both remaining baddies in the LB right now. Taking me and Daisy out of the equation, that means wrapping my head around teams consisting of:

Made-HK-Kyle
Made-HK-Tim
Made-HK-Tony
Made-Kyle-Tim
Made-Kyle-Tony
Made-Tim-Tony

For now though, it's 11:00 pm for me, and I'm an old man trapped in the body of a late-30-something. Good night.