Re: [D2] Lost in Space Mafia
Posted: Fri Jan 14, 2022 4:25 am
Game is hard man... I think Alison could be mafia and if this is a miss I will probably just plant my vote on her in f5.
Murder, Mayhem, and Mafia
https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/
I'm not used to seeing this amount of solve in NAAs scum game. I don't like relying on meta, outside the amount of effort he's putting in, there's also an earnestness to his posts. He's a deepwolf suspect, but I'm not gonna go down that rabbit hole at this pointAlison wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 2:52 amI think NAA/Seanzie might have more equity than Creature at this point. How do you feel about them?falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 12:10 pm Yeah, going thru Creatures ISO again, and I'm fine with their flip.
Creature/Alison chuck wagon races? Let's do it
Hope you're feeling OK!
This is a categorical falsehood, the motivating factor was his reads (that were bad at the time) and that he was perceived as a strong player who could reevaluate. I argued keeping him.Alison wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 3:45 amI N1ed him in BTAS. iirc it was just for being obvious town and not because of any particular threat though.MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 6:15 pm I actually was thinking about this game 15 mins ago when I was getting my coffee and had a thought that the LC kill doesn't make sense for Alison to make because LC wasn't an Alison voter and also because LC isn't an Alison threat, but maybe I'm tripping.
@Alison have you ever night oned Lime Coke before?
If you were an easy kill you would have died yesterday. Fext was literally inno child.Alison wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 3:24 amI was a top wagon yesterday and I'm a top wagon today. I am objectively an easy push for mafia. You don't need LC around to do that, and the same goes for your assertion that you don't push me when you're mafia because I'm a hard person to exe or whatever.NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 2:10 pmYou're right, I would kill Lime Coke if I were mafia in this situation. I think it's in everyone's best interest to kill Lime Coke at night in this situation because there's a very high probability that he enters the day being confirmed town. Also, killing Lime Coke closes the door to some discussions over what happened yesterday.
Though, playing devil's advocate to my own argument, if my goal is to get Alison killed, Lime Coke could reasonably be turned in that direction after the Fext flip + it's unclear what I would assume about Alison's read on Lime Coke, is it solid, or is it fabricated?
ALSO, I don't push Alison if I'm mafia.Or at the very least, I don't consider pushing Alison to be a good idea for mafia... Every play is correct some % of the time.
Alison is never an easy push in my experienceNotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 10:13 amIf you were an easy kill you would have died yesterday. Fext was literally inno child.Alison wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 3:24 amI was a top wagon yesterday and I'm a top wagon today. I am objectively an easy push for mafia. You don't need LC around to do that, and the same goes for your assertion that you don't push me when you're mafia because I'm a hard person to exe or whatever.NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 2:10 pmYou're right, I would kill Lime Coke if I were mafia in this situation. I think it's in everyone's best interest to kill Lime Coke at night in this situation because there's a very high probability that he enters the day being confirmed town. Also, killing Lime Coke closes the door to some discussions over what happened yesterday.
Though, playing devil's advocate to my own argument, if my goal is to get Alison killed, Lime Coke could reasonably be turned in that direction after the Fext flip + it's unclear what I would assume about Alison's read on Lime Coke, is it solid, or is it fabricated?
ALSO, I don't push Alison if I'm mafia.Or at the very least, I don't consider pushing Alison to be a good idea for mafia... Every play is correct some % of the time.
Yeah, this is my point, she's straight up lying... All I see are 10 empty posts that don't give ANY additional context on the game, on her actions, and don't address any of the concerns that were voiced in the thread. She's just anti-spew at this point.falcon45ca wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 10:17 amAlison is never an easy push in my experienceNotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 10:13 amIf you were an easy kill you would have died yesterday. Fext was literally inno child.Alison wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 3:24 amI was a top wagon yesterday and I'm a top wagon today. I am objectively an easy push for mafia. You don't need LC around to do that, and the same goes for your assertion that you don't push me when you're mafia because I'm a hard person to exe or whatever.NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 2:10 pmYou're right, I would kill Lime Coke if I were mafia in this situation. I think it's in everyone's best interest to kill Lime Coke at night in this situation because there's a very high probability that he enters the day being confirmed town. Also, killing Lime Coke closes the door to some discussions over what happened yesterday.
Though, playing devil's advocate to my own argument, if my goal is to get Alison killed, Lime Coke could reasonably be turned in that direction after the Fext flip + it's unclear what I would assume about Alison's read on Lime Coke, is it solid, or is it fabricated?
ALSO, I don't push Alison if I'm mafia.Or at the very least, I don't consider pushing Alison to be a good idea for mafia... Every play is correct some % of the time.
Because Alison/Mac are scum, or is there something towny you're seeing that I'm not?NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 11:00 am I actually think Creature is town (is this a bad take?)
Yes.NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 11:00 am I actually think Creature is town (is this a bad take?)
It's based on the fact that at least one of Alison/Mac/Seanzie are scum. All of them have worked pretty hard to improve their position in the game at some point today (I would expect less of anyone who's partnered with Creature due to their play). Though, maybe more importantly, every single one of them is content with the status quo on Creature.falcon45ca wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 11:52 amBecause Alison/Mac are scum, or is there something towny you're seeing that I'm not?NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 11:00 am I actually think Creature is town (is this a bad take?)
It's a bad take because you think he's mafia, or because you don't think there's any reason to read him and you resent how he's playing the game?DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 11:54 amYes.NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 11:00 am I actually think Creature is town (is this a bad take?)
I'll take number 2 partner.NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 12:11 pmIt's a bad take because you think he's mafia, or because you don't think there's any reason to read him and you resent how he's playing the game?DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 11:54 amYes.NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 11:00 am I actually think Creature is town (is this a bad take?)
Ok, but can we kill Alison first?DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 12:17 pmI'll take number 2 partner.NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 12:11 pmIt's a bad take because you think he's mafia, or because you don't think there's any reason to read him and you resent how he's playing the game?DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 11:54 amYes.NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 11:00 am I actually think Creature is town (is this a bad take?)
No.NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 12:22 pmOk, but can we kill Alison first?DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 12:17 pmI'll take number 2 partner.NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 12:11 pmIt's a bad take because you think he's mafia, or because you don't think there's any reason to read him and you resent how he's playing the game?DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 11:54 amYes.NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 11:00 am I actually think Creature is town (is this a bad take?)
You understand with the current votes, a towny is dying at EOD right? votes will move just enough for it to happen.DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 12:24 pmNo.NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 12:22 pmOk, but can we kill Alison first?DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 12:17 pmI'll take number 2 partner.NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 12:11 pmIt's a bad take because you think he's mafia, or because you don't think there's any reason to read him and you resent how he's playing the game?DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 11:54 amYes.NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 11:00 am I actually think Creature is town (is this a bad take?)
I reckon I appreciate your tenacity towards the want to yeet your reads, but I'm not waltzin into f5 with a blind spot.
What is borked?MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 12:37 am @Creature where are you at?
@Seanzie your worldview is borked if you are town. What can we do to resolve this because I feel like you just keep talking past me and all of your points are just definition tunneling nonsense.
agreed.falcon45ca wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 3:07 pm The fact that 4 people are off on vanity wagons, w/ several of them being POE is less than ideal
I think Sean is scum.falcon45ca wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 9:19 amI'm not used to seeing this amount of solve in NAAs scum game. I don't like relying on meta, outside the amount of effort he's putting in, there's also an earnestness to his posts. He's a deepwolf suspect, but I'm not gonna go down that rabbit hole at this pointAlison wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 2:52 amI think NAA/Seanzie might have more equity than Creature at this point. How do you feel about them?falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 12:10 pm Yeah, going thru Creatures ISO again, and I'm fine with their flip.
Creature/Alison chuck wagon races? Let's do it
Sean I'm less sure about. I can see a world where he's scum for sure
I'd be extremely surprised.falcon45ca wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 9:24 amHope you're feeling OK!
How do do you read this game if both NAA & Sean are town?
That's not how I remember it, but say this is true...NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 10:12 amThis is a categorical falsehood, the motivating factor was his reads (that were bad at the time) and that he was perceived as a strong player who could reevaluate. I argued keeping him.Alison wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 3:45 amI N1ed him in BTAS. iirc it was just for being obvious town and not because of any particular threat though.MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 6:15 pm I actually was thinking about this game 15 mins ago when I was getting my coffee and had a thought that the LC kill doesn't make sense for Alison to make because LC wasn't an Alison voter and also because LC isn't an Alison threat, but maybe I'm tripping.
@Alison have you ever night oned Lime Coke before?
5 people were on Fext, and they can't all be mafia. Clearly the town did not see him as an inno child, so arguing that I am really hard to kill because he was voted out over me doesn't mean much. The wagon on me sprung up at EOD, where I wasn't around to defend myself, so it wasn't like I was talking my way out of the noose. Where does this "Alison must be a ridiculously hard person to exe" rhetoric come from?NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 10:13 amIf you were an easy kill you would have died yesterday. Fext was literally inno child.Alison wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 3:24 amI was a top wagon yesterday and I'm a top wagon today. I am objectively an easy push for mafia. You don't need LC around to do that, and the same goes for your assertion that you don't push me when you're mafia because I'm a hard person to exe or whatever.NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 2:10 pmYou're right, I would kill Lime Coke if I were mafia in this situation. I think it's in everyone's best interest to kill Lime Coke at night in this situation because there's a very high probability that he enters the day being confirmed town. Also, killing Lime Coke closes the door to some discussions over what happened yesterday.
Though, playing devil's advocate to my own argument, if my goal is to get Alison killed, Lime Coke could reasonably be turned in that direction after the Fext flip + it's unclear what I would assume about Alison's read on Lime Coke, is it solid, or is it fabricated?
ALSO, I don't push Alison if I'm mafia.Or at the very least, I don't consider pushing Alison to be a good idea for mafia... Every play is correct some % of the time.
I want to kill both NAA and Seanzie more than Creature. Are you willing to switch to Seanzie?DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 12:24 pmNo.NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 12:22 pmOk, but can we kill Alison first?DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 12:17 pmI'll take number 2 partner.NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 12:11 pmIt's a bad take because you think he's mafia, or because you don't think there's any reason to read him and you resent how he's playing the game?DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 11:54 amYes.NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 11:00 am I actually think Creature is town (is this a bad take?)
I reckon I appreciate your tenacity towards the want to yeet your reads, but I'm not waltzin into f5 with a blind spot.
If I die, vote out NAA first. The two viable scum teams I see are NAA/Creature and NAA/Seanzie. NAA/Seanzie is my pick for most likely team, with Creature as a third suspect, but if I'm wrong about NAA/Seanzie, the way NAA tried to hardclear Creature at EOD makes me suspect NAA/Creature, and Seanzie could in theory just be a really obstinate/bad townie. The overlap between the two is NAA, so get rid of him first. In F3 you will probably have to decide between Creature and Seanzie. I'm leaning towards Seanzie right now just because he has been continuously full of shit for the past 24 hours and Creature would most likely have voted me if NAA/Creature is the team with an agenda to get me killed today. But read isos, re-evaluate and make up your own mind like you should be doing every F3. Don't ignore my reads, and don't ignore Fext's reads.
You don't want us to sheep you?Alison wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 4:10 pmIf I die, vote out NAA first. The two viable scum teams I see are NAA/Creature and NAA/Seanzie. NAA/Seanzie is my pick for most likely team, with Creature as a third suspect, but if I'm wrong about NAA/Seanzie, the way NAA tried to hardclear Creature at EOD makes me suspect NAA/Creature, and Seanzie could in theory just be a really obstinate/bad townie. The overlap between the two is NAA, so get rid of him first. In F3 you will probably have to decide between Creature and Seanzie. I'm leaning towards Seanzie right now just because he has been continuously full of shit for the past 24 hours and Creature would most likely have voted me if NAA/Creature is the team with an agenda to get me killed today. But read isos, re-evaluate and make up your own mind like you should be doing every F3. Don't ignore my reads, and don't ignore Fext's reads.
No. If me and Mac were scum, we could have voted out Creature. He isn't around to self pres, so we could just two stack on him and force a rand at best (3-3-1), or forcibly kill Creature if we convince you to hop on, which you have said you are open to. That is what I would do if I was a wolf, it is the mathematically optimal play and not one I'd deviate from.
You wouldn't try to get Falcon to move onto me to save you?Alison wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 4:13 pmNo. If me and Mac were scum, we could have voted out Creature. He isn't around to self pres, so we could just two stack on him and force a rand at best (3-3-1), or forcibly kill Creature if we convince you to hop on, which you have said you are open to. That is what I would do if I was a wolf, it is the mathematically optimal play and not one I'd deviate from.
I gave detailed instructions for handling endgame, dictated the next day's exe, and confined the F3 vote to two candidates. I finished by saying "don't ignore the reads of dead townies". What part of that suggests that I don't want people to sheep me?Seanzie wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 4:11 pmYou don't want us to sheep you?Alison wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 4:10 pmIf I die, vote out NAA first. The two viable scum teams I see are NAA/Creature and NAA/Seanzie. NAA/Seanzie is my pick for most likely team, with Creature as a third suspect, but if I'm wrong about NAA/Seanzie, the way NAA tried to hardclear Creature at EOD makes me suspect NAA/Creature, and Seanzie could in theory just be a really obstinate/bad townie. The overlap between the two is NAA, so get rid of him first. In F3 you will probably have to decide between Creature and Seanzie. I'm leaning towards Seanzie right now just because he has been continuously full of shit for the past 24 hours and Creature would most likely have voted me if NAA/Creature is the team with an agenda to get me killed today. But read isos, re-evaluate and make up your own mind like you should be doing every F3. Don't ignore my reads, and don't ignore Fext's reads.
Much easier to get Falcon to move onto Creature, and Wilgy is policy voting Creature as well. He would be a much easier misexe in a Mac/Alison scum world. I am voting you because I think you are more likely to be mafia than Creature, and I think Mac is right. In the case that I don't get a move from Falcon/Wilgy and go over I have the legacy plan detailed above to give town a decent chance at winning if they follow it.Seanzie wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 4:14 pmYou wouldn't try to get Falcon to move onto me to save you?Alison wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 4:13 pmNo. If me and Mac were scum, we could have voted out Creature. He isn't around to self pres, so we could just two stack on him and force a rand at best (3-3-1), or forcibly kill Creature if we convince you to hop on, which you have said you are open to. That is what I would do if I was a wolf, it is the mathematically optimal play and not one I'd deviate from.
Also if you did want to go for a tie and in the 50% chance you lose, you and Mac are like... almost completely outed and Creature would be spewed town, so you'd go for 50-50 odds of a near insta-loss over chances of getting someone to move onto me, chopping your worst enemy, and protecting Mac's positioning in thread?Alison wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 4:13 pmNo. If me and Mac were scum, we could have voted out Creature. He isn't around to self pres, so we could just two stack on him and force a rand at best (3-3-1), or forcibly kill Creature if we convince you to hop on, which you have said you are open to. That is what I would do if I was a wolf, it is the mathematically optimal play and not one I'd deviate from.
Pretty much every time you've been about to die as town, you literally try to get people to commit to just blindly sheeping your reads.Alison wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 4:14 pmI gave detailed instructions for handling endgame, dictated the next day's exe, and confined the F3 vote to two candidates. I finished by saying "don't ignore the reads of dead townies". What part of that suggests that I don't want people to sheep me?Seanzie wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 4:11 pmYou don't want us to sheep you?Alison wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 4:10 pmIf I die, vote out NAA first. The two viable scum teams I see are NAA/Creature and NAA/Seanzie. NAA/Seanzie is my pick for most likely team, with Creature as a third suspect, but if I'm wrong about NAA/Seanzie, the way NAA tried to hardclear Creature at EOD makes me suspect NAA/Creature, and Seanzie could in theory just be a really obstinate/bad townie. The overlap between the two is NAA, so get rid of him first. In F3 you will probably have to decide between Creature and Seanzie. I'm leaning towards Seanzie right now just because he has been continuously full of shit for the past 24 hours and Creature would most likely have voted me if NAA/Creature is the team with an agenda to get me killed today. But read isos, re-evaluate and make up your own mind like you should be doing every F3. Don't ignore my reads, and don't ignore Fext's reads.
In a world where me and Mac are scum, you flipping town would be far more outing for us than Creature flipping town, given that you've been harshly at odds with us all day and are dying with a strong legacy of both me and Mac being lock scum. If you are as obviously unimpeachable town as you say, then why're you arguing that the scum team would pick a fight with you (who strongly townreads them) over the afk LHF that isn't even around to protect himself?Seanzie wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 4:16 pmAlso if you did want to go for a tie and in the 50% chance you lose, you and Mac are like... almost completely outed and Creature would be spewed town, so you'd go for 50-50 odds of a near insta-loss over chances of getting someone to move onto me, chopping your worst enemy, and protecting Mac's positioning in thread?Alison wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 4:13 pmNo. If me and Mac were scum, we could have voted out Creature. He isn't around to self pres, so we could just two stack on him and force a rand at best (3-3-1), or forcibly kill Creature if we convince you to hop on, which you have said you are open to. That is what I would do if I was a wolf, it is the mathematically optimal play and not one I'd deviate from.
1) It is not true that I always try to get people to commit to blindly sheeping my reads when I die as town.Seanzie wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 4:18 pmPretty much every time you've been about to die as town, you literally try to get people to commit to just blindly sheeping your reads.Alison wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 4:14 pmI gave detailed instructions for handling endgame, dictated the next day's exe, and confined the F3 vote to two candidates. I finished by saying "don't ignore the reads of dead townies". What part of that suggests that I don't want people to sheep me?Seanzie wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 4:11 pmYou don't want us to sheep you?Alison wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 4:10 pmIf I die, vote out NAA first. The two viable scum teams I see are NAA/Creature and NAA/Seanzie. NAA/Seanzie is my pick for most likely team, with Creature as a third suspect, but if I'm wrong about NAA/Seanzie, the way NAA tried to hardclear Creature at EOD makes me suspect NAA/Creature, and Seanzie could in theory just be a really obstinate/bad townie. The overlap between the two is NAA, so get rid of him first. In F3 you will probably have to decide between Creature and Seanzie. I'm leaning towards Seanzie right now just because he has been continuously full of shit for the past 24 hours and Creature would most likely have voted me if NAA/Creature is the team with an agenda to get me killed today. But read isos, re-evaluate and make up your own mind like you should be doing every F3. Don't ignore my reads, and don't ignore Fext's reads.
"make up your own mind" does not sound like what you normally sound like when you're about to die.
You do you. If you think you're likely to get NK'd, go ahead.