MovingPictures07 wrote:Now, as to my current suspicions and thoughts... Llama is at the top of my list. If I had to vote now, I would be voting for him again today. I was largely unsure of him before, but something in my gut is making me feel just more and more sure that he is not on our side this game. That said, I am not positive at all, still, as it's almost impossible to be, especially at this stage -- so I'm glad I don't have to vote now. I'm trying to avoid railroading him, but I'm really, really feeling strong about him, so I'm trying to balance the OMG civvie gut "LLAMA MUST BE BAD" Alex with the rational and cautious Alex. It is proving to be difficult. Yes, my mafia self is bi-polar, or something.
There are others as well... I am very wary of juliets, Vompatti, and even Devin, as I'm just unable to decipher their intentions. Additionally, I am starting to wonder if we have been psyched out by Hedgeowl. There was this huge movement against her, orchestrated by llama, with many players saying she seemed most worthy of a vote, and then... NO votes on Day 2. Absolutely none. And hardly anyone is talking about her now. So maybe I was wrong in her intentions and she is lying her ass off, and well. I don't know.
Another thing is I think we should look more closely at players who latched onto Devin and llama yesterday.
It's possible I might go any of those ways, or as the day develops, something else more strong will come up.
I must admit, BWT is starting to catch my eye as well. He voted for llama yesterday and his thoughts seem very with-the-crowd and flip floppy. That being said, I have a terrible track record of reading him, despite knowing him very well IRL, so I really just want to open up discussion on him and see what others think.
I am almost tempted to vote Devin, but I fear he is not the unlynchable baddie, and I really don't know what he is doing here. I don't think we should waste our time on him regardless of whether he is lying or civvie or baddie or whatever.
Additionally, quiet players need to speak more. I might even be tempted to go with Gleam or DFaraday and others, or to at the very least throw their names around. I very highly doubt I'll vote any way here, but hey, anything could happen.
I strongly feel that Matt F is not a Teen Girl Squad baddie in this game. I could be wrong, as he is very hard to read, but of anyone in the game, I think I "trust" him the most at this moment. He could very well be a Blue Laser or Trogdor, and so I'm far from advocating his civvieness, but I want to say this because I find it weird there was a bit of a push in his direction towards the end of Day 2 and such. Whether it was by civvies or baddies or both, I think it might be misguided.
FWIW, I am seeing normal A Person behavior, nothing to tell me whether he is civvie or baddie. I honestly have no idea. I find it odd llama is beginning to make a mountain out of a molehill already here (more on this later).
Regardless, I really, really want feedback on everything. I don't want to railroad llama or anyone else, so if you guys think I'm way off here or if you agree or have anything to say at all, I don't care, just tell me.
Despite what llama has said, I have pointed out quotes or instances from him that make me feel uneasy. Considering he has 128 posts this game and I don't have all the time in the world, I am not going to do my classic-going-through-his-posts-and-telling-you-guys-how-suspicious-he-is-case-building-thing that I do as a civvie (and try to copycat as a baddie), especially since I believe that leads to my own tunnel vision.
However, I do believe llama is manipulating the thread, and he's doing a fantastic job of it. His suspicions, in reality, are all over the place. He also is trying to appear as logical as possible, when in reality, he is exhibiting occasional behavior that is blatantly in the face of what he should know from playing mafia now for as long as he has (and he has exhibited knowledge of these items in other games). This is the clincher for me. It just seems so off. And lastly, especially if Devin is a civvie, the way things went down in Day 2 don't look very good for llama, it must be said, but that's just my take on the matter. He comes up with a pretty arbitrary reason to vote for Devin, tries to make it seem as convincing as possible, then BOOM, votes bandwagon onto him out of nowhere. It struck me as so insincere, all of it.
Dom agrees with me here. I pointed out this post of llama's in a previous post of mine, but thought it deserved to be looked at again. Why would a civvie llama say this? It pings me greatly as completely insincere. Llama, of all people, should recognize that Matt F is behaving the way he is, and that he very well could be a civvie.
In fact, llama has recognized this fact in many games before, and even gave S~V~S the BOTD big time in Mario when she was railrorading Nevinera (all three of which were civvies, it should be said), and realized that civvies can be wrong about civvies.
He doesn't seem to be displaying this bit of information here.
Additionally, llama seems to think that civvies can't make logical fallacies:
thellama73 wrote:A Person wrote:thellama73 wrote:I've thought about the hut problem some more. The best strategy is not merely to send in a PM. The best strategy is to convince everyone else not to send in a PM, and then send in one yourself. This drastically increases the chance of survival.
For this reason, I may consider a vote for A Person today.
That would be a good idea, but since it's done in secret I'd have no way of knowing if people actually do it.
It doesn't matter. Every person who doesn't send in a PM increases the survival chances of those who do. So even if only a few people followed your advice, it would still benefit you.
What benefit would A Person have in coming out in the thread and speculating as he has? It's possible he is Trogdor, but the WIFOM associated with that is so strong, and any mafia veteran knows that it's better to NOT attract suspicion when you have an SK role like that, especially in a game like this where Trogdor cannot be traced by whom he kills. He only picks a hut and it kills someone in that hut, so he can't even be traced by his kill targets, something he can use to his advantage. So why would Trogdor come out in the thread and try to influence the way anyone is behaving with regards to Trogdor PMs? There is no reason for him to.
There is a civvie and a baddie explanation for A Person's behavior. Having known A Person very well over the years, I can testify that it seems completely normal for him, and I do not understand how it is telling of alignment.
Yet llama jumps out of the gate and tries to start this bullshit suspicion of him. Llama comes up with all kinds of wacky theories, but they usually have a twisted sense of logic behind them.
What kind of logic is behind this?
This suspicion of his really bothers me because you would think llama would want to assist in looking at players who are bandwagoning, or something more concrete. This suspicion is just so ridiculous IMO.
thellama73 wrote:Mongoose wrote:Captain Bunny Killer wrote:
Sorry, I meant no offense. I definitely talk too little, since I have such a hard time deciding/keeping track of everything.
Ha, no worries; everyone knows it's true.
That said, back to baddie hunting -- so if Hedge, Llama and I are all going to be safe on the animal sanctuary, where does that leave us in terms of suspects?
I think I'm leaning towards Lizzy at this point. She is playing radically different than both other games I've had with her (and I know she is around because she signed up for Sherlock.)
linki Lizzy: thanks for proving my point.
This is the ONLY time he's mentioned Lizzy. He has said nothing about her ever before or since. Don't believe me? Go through his posts.
He did the same type of thing with Hedgeowl. Said he was all ready to vote for her, then conveniently waited until after I said she seemed sincere, and then agreed and did not even vote for her.
thellama73 wrote:Matt F wrote:While I'm still reading, Juliet, please address your first two posts in the game, and also please explain why you think me and Lizzy are bad, but are voting for Gleam.
Thank you!
Looking forward to the lynch post. If I am wrong here, which I don't think I am, I will obviously have to reevaluate my opinion of Dom.
Juliet...not so much.
Already preparing excuses for when I flip civ, I see.
Posts like these just seem sarcastic, a bit snarky, and totally unlike civvie llama, at least how I have seen. Those who played Bioshock, think about it. Llama's posts in that game were incredibly insightful, gallant, and he was more than willing to consider all the possibilities. I am just not seeing that llama here. At all. And it's really bothering me.
Lastly, the thing that's bothering me the most is that he keeps shrugging off all the suspicions against him as completely unexplained and baseless, when in fact, I've elaborated on my thoughts about him in detail. I realize my thoughts on him are far from concrete and actually pretty abstract, but here are all the times I've mentioned llama as suspicious or in a quasi-suspicious light:
http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 661#p31661 Before I even said llama was worthy of any attention for being suspicious, I pointed out an observation here how his thoughts on me seemed to waffle and contradict a bit. He responded and said they are compatible. Up until this point, I actually talked back and forth with llama a bunch, giving him the BOTD before judging his intentions.
http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 231#p32231 I said I was feeling wary of llama here and said it was pretty much mostly gut. I even tell him I know it's hard to defend against.
http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 312#p32312 I addressed him twice here. Nothing substantial, but it's something.
http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 349#p32349 Here is my Day 2 vote for llama. It elaborates as to my exact interpretation of his actions. I explain that I had to vote early for RL reasons and I told him it wasn't much at all, but it was gut, so I had to listen to it.
http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 584#p32584 Now here I explained I have already given specific instances, such as his suspicion mongering, and provide that he read very much like a baddie stuck in a corner last lynch, etc.
That last quote especially is consequently why it bugs me when llama then says to S~V~S that he's unsure why I even suspect him. Before that, OK, maybe, and before the last two or three quotes, sure, I totally get why he doesn't understand. But surely he should see by now that I believe him to be insincere in his intentions and that I have provided instances of this?
I really want players to tell me what they think of this. I could be totally off the mark or maybe I'm onto something. I don't know. But it's what I really feel is going on, and it's unfair to keep it to myself just because I'm afraid of railroading a civvie.
Wow. Okay. I took way too long on all of this. I really have to go now and stop procrastinating on other things. The soonest I'll be back is maybe tomorrow morning (?), but more likely tomorrow at lunch since I'll be in the office.
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What in particular are you referring to?
I feel you JC.