The Syndicate

Can I ask, then, what everyone else feels about my position so far? If you agree with Epignosis' analysis?

I haven't looked at Epignosis's analysis, but I will in the morning.

agleaminranks wrote: I'm going back to my position on Epignosis and Metalmarsh being teammates after their Boomslang lynch. Is it a long shot to say that they would both fake being insanified, getting us to think there is a secret role, and have one of them initially vote for the other in order to cover up being bad? Maybe. But it's also a brilliant baddie tactic, and if it were true, a perfect way to hide and throw suspicions elsewhere. If I were a baddie, it's a strategy I would want to use.
My other thought was that early on, before being "insanified", neither of them really gave a ton of good reason to really explain their vote. The last two lynches have been bandwagons one or the other has started. They may have intentionally spread their votes earlier to avoid a correlation but now with so few players left, just two people on board with a lynch is enough to damn near anyone.

I'm back to yesterday where I was wondering if a baddie would push this theory so far.
To me the theory reads like complete nonsense and without any prior history of these two coming up with plans like this I doubt it's true.

Simon I think is probably good, I agree with Spacedaisy in that given how much scrutiny he was under he's probably just avoiding trying to say anything at all given that it might hurt the good guys if he was lynched.

This is not what she said. She said the opposite.

You're making it hard for me to believe you are a civilian agleaminranks, but I really don't want to be wrong again. Your reasons for your suspicion are based on a theory that has about a 1% chance of being true in my opinion, and that is almost all you have to offer.

But, you are willing to talk and that's good. Please come back and talk some more.
I'll put my vote on MetalMarsh for the time being, hoping it will make him talk.

Sorry, something's come up and I can't be here until closer to deadline. I don't see much discussion other than Typhoony and Algeam, so forcing MM to talk is a nice idea. I'll be back later.

I'm seriously considering leaving my vote on MM if he doesn't show up at all. Thoughts?

I wouldn't blame you if you did Typh. I'm sorry for not being available when I said I would be.

I'm voting Epignosis for self-preservation.

U wot?

There's more than enough time left to.. you know, discuss stuff.

That vote feels like you're a baddie who's quite confident he's going to win this lynch and decided to pile your vote on.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:I wouldn't blame you if you did Typh. I'm sorry for not being available when I said I would be.

I'm voting Epignosis for self-preservation.

Mm hmm.

So here's where we stand:

agleaminranks believes MetalMarsh and I have executed a "perfect" (his word) boss plan for MM to suspect me, then I fake a curse, then MM fakes a curse, and then MM takes his vote off me, and then MM votes for me out of self-preservation when he only has one vote and it's just a vote from Typhoony to get him to talk.

I heard the price of tinfoil just skyrocketed.

It would not surprise me if all Pikmin have +2 votes right now because of the Phosbat's ability.
Assuming that atleast one baddie has died, that gives the Phosbat atleast 2 votes, maybe even 3 if the Wraith is dead as well. Even if the Wraith is alive, it's possible a Protagonist has been captured and it has 1 vote, so let's assume the baddies have 3 votes.

That would give Epi 5 votes atm.

Meaning that we all need to vote MM or Agleam, whoever we feel could be the Phosbat. I am, for now, comfortable leaving my vote on MM.

Hey agleam, if you wanna prove to me that you are not a baddie, now is your chance by voting MetalMarsh

After all, you suspect both him and Epi of being baddies, right?

Looking at my spreadsheet (a beer-stained piece of paper marked up with black ink and highlighter), I think I have spacedaisy's role pegged. I'm going with not bad on her.

I find this lack of participation disturbing.

I apologize to MP for giving you such a shitty extra day :P

Typhoony wrote:It would not surprise me if all Pikmin have +2 votes right now because of the Phosbat's ability.
Assuming that atleast one baddie has died, that gives the Phosbat atleast 2 votes, maybe even 3 if the Wraith is dead as well. Even if the Wraith is alive, it's possible a Protagonist has been captured and it has 1 vote, so let's assume the baddies have 3 votes.

That would give Epi 5 votes atm.

Meaning that we all need to vote MM or Agleam, whoever we feel could be the Phosbat. I am, for now, comfortable leaving my vote on MM.

Do you agree with this Epi?
Do you have thoughts on who the Phosbat could be?
I'd like to get rid of that role considering the possibility of the Wraith surviving the lynch.

I'm sorry guys. Like I said, something came up. I'm here now. What's going on?

FZ. wrote:I'm sorry guys. Like I said, something came up. I'm here now. What's going on?

Epignosis wrote:So here's where we stand:

agleaminranks believes MetalMarsh and I have executed a "perfect" (his word) boss plan for MM to suspect me, then I fake a curse, then MM fakes a curse, and then MM takes his vote off me, and then MM votes for me out of self-preservation when he only has one vote and it's just a vote from Typhoony to get him to talk.

I heard the price of tinfoil just skyrocketed.

So you think MM and Agleaminranks are the left baddies?

FZ. wrote:So you think MM and Agleaminranks are the left baddies?

Yes.

Okay, I'm reading back

Typhoony wrote:

Typhoony wrote:It would not surprise me if all Pikmin have +2 votes right now because of the Phosbat's ability.
Assuming that atleast one baddie has died, that gives the Phosbat atleast 2 votes, maybe even 3 if the Wraith is dead as well. Even if the Wraith is alive, it's possible a Protagonist has been captured and it has 1 vote, so let's assume the baddies have 3 votes.

That would give Epi 5 votes atm.

Meaning that we all need to vote MM or Agleam, whoever we feel could be the Phosbat. I am, for now, comfortable leaving my vote on MM.

Do you agree with this Epi?
Do you have thoughts on who the Phosbat could be?
I'd like to get rid of that role considering the possibility of the Wraith surviving the lynch.

All I can say is that I wish those votes on me didn't count.

My top two suspects are agleaminranks and MM (and not because they're voting for me booooooooo).

I suspect gleam slightly more than MM. I have a lingering question mark on MM, which would pencil him in as Pikmin, and his reactionary vote against me to save himself fits in with that. Of course, he wouldn't know he has two votes, but I can hardly blame him- I made a similar move in the Matt lynch.

So agleaminranks is still my top suspect.

Ok.

If other people are also more comfortable voting agleam than MM, I will join them. Let me know what you think when you've read up FZ.

I'll vote now for gleam.

Okay, I'm caught up.

I'm not really sure what to make of MM's vote. I get it, he wasn't here, it's the holidays and he's busy. But since he was here to vote, I wish he'd tried a little harder. Epi, would you say this is any easy way out vote, or real lack of time to invest and a decision to save himself over you? What is MM more likely to do as a civ, and as a baddie?
I do want to ask MM one question though, if you get back here today: You were pretty suspicious of Epi most game, and it looked like the curse made you change your mind. At least it appeared that way when you voted for someone else, I forgot who it was. Would you say you're still suspicious of Epi, or is it only to save yourself? Because let's face it, if it's the latter and you're a civ, that's a pretty lame thing to do at this stage of the game.

As for Gleaminranks (I swear, I have to look up his name every time I want to print it), if he is bad with MM, did they plan to vote for Epi in advance trying to distance themselves? If he wasn't and is not working with MM, who could be the last baddie with him, if there is one? I feel like we need to tie all loose ends here.

FZ. wrote:Okay, I'm caught up.

I'm not really sure what to make of MM's vote. I get it, he wasn't here, it's the holidays and he's busy. But since he was here to vote, I wish he'd tried a little harder. Epi, would you say this is any easy way out vote, or real lack of time to invest and a decision to save himself over you? What is MM more likely to do as a civ, and as a baddie?
I do want to ask MM one question though, if you get back here today: You were pretty suspicious of Epi most game, and it looked like the curse made you change your mind. At least it appeared that way when you voted for someone else, I forgot who it was. Would you say you're still suspicious of Epi, or is it only to save yourself? Because let's face it, if it's the latter and you're a civ, that's a pretty lame thing to do at this stage of the game.

If I'm being honest, I think MM's sudden vote for me makes him look better, not worse. I don't believe he'd phone it in like that if he were bad.

FZ. wrote: If he wasn't and is not working with MM, who could be the last baddie with him, if there is one? I feel like we need to tie all loose ends here.

I think Simon would be the most likely to be bad then.

Epignosis wrote:

FZ. wrote:Okay, I'm caught up.

I'm not really sure what to make of MM's vote. I get it, he wasn't here, it's the holidays and he's busy. But since he was here to vote, I wish he'd tried a little harder. Epi, would you say this is any easy way out vote, or real lack of time to invest and a decision to save himself over you? What is MM more likely to do as a civ, and as a baddie?
I do want to ask MM one question though, if you get back here today: You were pretty suspicious of Epi most game, and it looked like the curse made you change your mind. At least it appeared that way when you voted for someone else, I forgot who it was. Would you say you're still suspicious of Epi, or is it only to save yourself? Because let's face it, if it's the latter and you're a civ, that's a pretty lame thing to do at this stage of the game.

If I'm being honest, I think MM's sudden vote for me makes him look better, not worse. I don't believe he'd phone it in like that if he were bad.

Okay, thanks. I really need to go in a few minutes. I'll probably join your vote, but I am hoping people will come on and post. I'm giving it 3 more minutes

Epignosis wrote: If I'm being honest, I think MM's sudden vote for me makes him look better, not worse. I don't believe he'd phone it in like that if he were bad.

MM has been on the site multiple times today though

Typhoony wrote:

FZ. wrote: If he wasn't and is not working with MM, who could be the last baddie with him, if there is one? I feel like we need to tie all loose ends here.

I think Simon would be the most likely to be bad then.

Epi thinks he's good. He thinks SD is good too, so we're not left with much. Unless there's only one more baddie left. I hope that's true.

We can go with Algeaminiranks and if the game isn't over, and there's another baddie, and we were at least right about him, we do better homework and look at his posts and his connections

Typhoony wrote:

Epignosis wrote: If I'm being honest, I think MM's sudden vote for me makes him look better, not worse. I don't believe he'd phone it in like that if he were bad.

MM has been on the site multiple times today though

What was he doing while online here?

I could still see SD being bad, but her posts today made me feel better about her.

I guess if Simon doesn't log in tonight and there is no kill we know who to vote tomorrow

Linki: Yes, I changed my vote to agleamin.

Linki2: I don't know.

Typhoony wrote:Linki2: I don't know.

I only say that because I stay logged in when I'm home, even if I'm not doing anything here. And I don't hide my online status.

Okay, I'll vote too. No one seems to be coming on, and I need real life sleep.

Is there really no more posting with less than an hour before the deadline?

I hope lynching gleam ends this thing.

Epignosis wrote:Is there really no more posting with less than an hour before the deadline?

Apparently not

Hey all, sorry for the delay, I got tied up.

Post coming ASAP.

Who killed the doctor?

Poll ended at Thu Dec 24, 2015 7:12:33 pm


agleaminranks
3
Epignosis (13), Typhoony (14), FZ. (15) 20%

Epignosis
2
agleaminranks (10), Metalmarsh89 (12) 13%

FZ.
0
No votes

Metalmarsh89
0
No votes

Simon
0
No votes

Spacedaisy
0
No votes

Typhoony
0
No votes

An evil bat! (host, deadies, non-players)
10
MovingPictures07 (1), kneel4justice (2), Dragon D. Luffy (3), TheFloyd73 (4), S~V~S (5), Glorfindel (6), juliets (7), Scotty (8), Turnip Head (9),
Tranq (11) 67%

Total votes : 15

agleaminranks has been lynched. He was:


Day 6 has ended.

It is now Night 6. Please send in any Night PMs ASAP.

This is some bull.

If I'm right about everything else in my spreadsheet, FZ. has to be the lone Mafia.

I realize that comes out of left field.

Epignosis wrote:If I'm right about everything else in my spreadsheet, FZ. has to be the lone Mafia.

I realize that comes out of left field.

Are we sure there are actually baddies in this game?

Epignosis wrote:If I'm right about everything else in my spreadsheet, FZ. has to be the lone Mafia.

I realize that comes out of left field.

Isn't this highly unlikely?

Let's look at the deaths:
Zebra: Pikmin
Sig: Pikmin
Sorsha: Pikmin
Scotty: Pikmin
Enrique + Soneji: Civvies
Matt: Pikmin
DDL: Civvie
Glorfindel: Likely bad
K4J: . From his posts I'd say civ, but it's possible he was bad I guess.
Boomslang: Pikmin
Wilgy: Civ
Agleaminranks: Pikmin

That leaves at a maximum: 5 civs, 2 baddies. Where K4J is the big question mark. If he was civ, we have 2 baddies left. If he was bad, we have 1 left.
Why do you think FZ is the lone mafia Epi?

Epignosis wrote:If I'm right about everything else in my spreadsheet, FZ. has to be the lone Mafia.

I realize that comes out of left field.

I decided to make a spreadsheet myself. My three questions marks are FZ, MM and Simon. But I am nowhere near as confident as you to say that FZ is the last baddie. I do think it's likely there is only one baddie left, but that is not set in stone either.

WTF? RIP Agleaminranks. I can't believe we were wrong about you.

Epignosis wrote:If I'm right about everything else in my spreadsheet, FZ. has to be the lone Mafia.

I realize that comes out of left field.

You're wrong Epi! I don't know how your spreadsheet looks like, and I suck at spreadsheets, so I don't have one, but I know you've got something wrong. At this stage, it shouldn't be too hard for you to figure out my role...I think.

I won't be here until tomorrow evening. I wonder if SD or Simon felt comfortable avoiding this lynch because it had two townies involved and they knew it.

If I die tonight, I think it's either one of them, or MM.

Typhoony wrote:

Epignosis wrote:If I'm right about everything else in my spreadsheet, FZ. has to be the lone Mafia.

I realize that comes out of left field.

Isn't this highly unlikely?

Let's look at the deaths:
Zebra: Pikmin
Sig: Pikmin
Sorsha: Pikmin
Scotty: Pikmin
Enrique + Soneji: Civvies
Matt: Pikmin
DDL: Civvie
Glorfindel: Likely bad
K4J: . From his posts I'd say civ, but it's possible he was bad I guess.
Boomslang: Pikmin
Wilgy: Civ
Agleaminranks: Pikmin

That leaves at a maximum: 5 civs, 2 baddies. Where K4J is the big question mark. If he was civ, we have 2 baddies left. If he was bad, we have 1 left.
Why do you think FZ is the lone mafia Epi?

Alcohol-induced frustration.

Typhoony wrote:I decided to make a spreadsheet myself. My three questions marks are FZ, MM and Simon. But I am nowhere near as confident as you to say that FZ is the last baddie. I do think it's likely there is only one baddie left, but that is not set in stone either.

Simon is not the Phosbat.

Last visited:
Mon Dec 21, 2015 7:47 pm

Night 5 started Mon Dec 21, 2015 8:12 pm and the Phosbat killed Tue Dec 22, 2015 8:12 pm (dang, way to be on time, MP).

That puts Simon outside of the window of the Phosbat's kill. Timestamps don't lie.