Re: Phenon Mafia: Day 2 - Of Jugulars and Carnage
Posted: Thu Feb 16, 2017 4:10 pm
Never mind, googled it.
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute.
Gotcha.
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute.
Gotcha.
Murder, Mayhem, and Mafia
https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/
"Is this guy alive so that we can kill him?"Golden wrote:sprit I think it's worth clarifying whether or not someone who appears dead can actually be alive, and voteable. I'd assume not.
speedchuck wrote:"Is this guy alive so that we can kill him?"Golden wrote:sprit I think it's worth clarifying whether or not someone who appears dead can actually be alive, and voteable. I'd assume not.
Yeah, I'll get your requested reads down soon. Already did Marmot. Don't want to lynch him yet.
I noted a parallel to her mafia play in Turf Wars. I believe that she is legitimately behind, but like you would have expected a little something more earnest than what she provided when she voted.Golden wrote:Eloh
At the moment I see no compelling reasons to trust or suspect Marmot. I can confirm that he's in three games at once so I am willing to give him a break for being quieter. His posts give me no indication of anything.Golden wrote:Marmot
I thought he looked authentic early in Day 1, particularly in his resistance to what he might perceive as typical Golden/JJJ thread dominance (primarily in the map dialogue). I have no significant beefs to state right now. He has tailed off recently. Silver Lantern put up a lot of content critical of INH and I'd like to see where that goes.Golden wrote:inh
Golden wrote:quin - I've liked Quin since the moment he noticed Dizzy's slip and I think he has done more besides which looks genuinely hunty.
speedchuck - Of all the newbies, speedchuck is the closest to going down the list. His responses to why I pinged him were good on the first read, but when I realised that he had already read my full explanation for why I didn't vote when he raised it (I didn't want to push a bandwagon vote to potential hammer range, especially before doing my own research), it bothers me a bit. I don't really know why speedchuck would see it as the civilian thing to do to rush in on a vote even after knowing my explanation. But, I can't quite tell to what extent this is culture. (I also appreciate his Star Wars reference)
This is about where I am.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:His posts give me no indication of anything.Golden wrote:Marmot
You said 'don't get cocky, kid', which I assumed was a Han Solo reference. Was I wrong?speedchuck wrote:Where did I star wars reference? I am trying to find it.
To be honest there might be truth to that. In this game I am a civilian who feels rather like a scum. That might make people look at me in a crappy light, but oh well I can't be bothered. I'm very fatigued of Mafia, and even the effort I have provided in this game has been more out of a sense of obligation to the town than out of a personal desire to play hard. I can imagine my deteriorating emotional investment in my work is reflected in it at times.Golden wrote:jay - I feel like I see a lot of evidence of Jay half-assing his viewpoints and not thinking them through or balancing them, which is what I normally see from him. A point in his favour is that I find his disappointment at Nacho's death genuine
I can't seem to find myself saying that. It would have been so cool. Darnit, me.Golden wrote:You said 'don't get cocky, kid', which I assumed was a Han Solo reference. Was I wrong?speedchuck wrote:Where did I star wars reference? I am trying to find it.
I wouldn't expect you to give me the key to the city for it. I do think it is an important detail in my favor, and if the scum team wanted to enjoy my declining credit that kill was a mistake. I guess it's just a matter of whether you believe these are true enough to be reflected in my hypothetical killing behavior:Golden wrote:Jay, how much weight do you think I should give to Nacho's death, in reading you?
#not cool enough to meme the Star WarsGolden wrote:Damn, it was silver lantern. Sorry!
Silver is town, imo. One of my most confident reads, along with Quin and Golden. As Fred said, he's case study townie Silver minus patented pursuit of me. (Silver and I tend to but heads as townies, which leads to head butting when one of us is scum, too.) I'm easily writing off not pursuing me because logically, that would be a huge mistake, here.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Question for the HCR folks:
What are your reads on each other?
I'm not sure what you mean by the highlighted portion, could you restate/expand?Jackofhearts2005 wrote:Silver is town, imo. One of my most confident reads, along with Quin and Golden. As Fred said, he's case study townie Silver minus patented pursuit of me. (Silver and I tend to but heads as townies, which leads to head butting when one of us is scum, too.) I'm easily writing off not pursuing me because logically, that would be a huge mistake, here.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Question for the HCR folks:
What are your reads on each other?
It's a clusterfuck. The only comparable game I can think of was RYM87, and I remember seeing double ups and jack of all trades and stuff there. I don't want to suggest we theorise based on the idea that it was redirected, I just wanted to see if you speculated on mechanical doubts, basically. You didn't, and I think that's actually a good look - I didn't know I'd think that in advance, but I do, because I think it demonstrates a mindset that you weren't considering the possibility.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:@Golden
That might be a good indicator that the kill wasn't redirected, since if it was that'd imply the presence of two redirecting roles. I have no idea how sprityo might design a setup; typically I think redundancies are less likely than an arrangement of unique role functions.
Scum Player X kills Whoever, redirected to Nacho
Golden targets Someone, redirected to Someone Else
It's hard to say though, since redirecting roles can take a lot of different shapes. Target swaps, source swaps, mirroring, etc. Very speculative.
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:A question for Quin:
Answer only to whatever extent you are comfortable with or deem appropriate (and if that means not answering at all, so be it). Did you experience any hindrances during the night phase to your knowledge?
What does a hammer do aside from end the day early?Golden wrote:Quin, you reminded me of something I found interesting at the time. Why did no one put down the hammer on sig?
It would have been easy to justify given dizzy was essentially asking someone to. I feel like this could be noteworthy. Eg, did anyone express suspicion of sig but hold back from the hammer?
A couple of instincts at play. The first is that a civilian would have been more likely willing to drop the hammer from an optics perspective, I think, because a mafia would be more wary of standing out. Does this make sense? People with more hammer experience than I, what seems likely?
I did yes.Silver Lantern wrote:Curious of people's opinions of the kills. Did anyone feel Wigly was acting particularly scummy?
Sloonei to answer a question you asked last night, which I got a little lost in the shuffle over my arguing, I am suspicious of LC and INH and to a lesser extent Soneji. I particularly liked Strawhenge and NM8's playstyle, and I forget which one but one of them had a big issue with LC. I'd need to re ISO INH to recall what I didn't like about him but I tend to lump those two together and I hope it's not cause they both have blue names. I remember LC does.
Color names, confusing mafia reads since 2017...
LOLSilver Lantern wrote:Playing mafia by yourself sucks. All you jobless nerds must sleep in a lot...
How does going against the grain make a player genuine?JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I'll expand now that Golden has responded: I appreciated Sloonei's willingness to provide thoughts like these about Golden, against the grain. To jump into the game and express a few pings about someone who is generally trusted in this thread is decent evidence of Sloonei's genuine concern about those points and his desire to state them. Mafia are generally just less likely to behave that way, especially Sloonei who I would qualify as a very careful player.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:My immediate perspective of Sloonei is positive for a reason I will share later.
I don't agree with the pings though. I think Golden is typically willing to invoke WIFOM to explain himself; it's a mindset I understand because I share it. I don't think WIFOM is inherently suspicious, and indeed I think many players are too quick to ignore that stuff.
I didn't make it back online to reconsider my vote. DrWilgy was another player I'd have voted for.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I also want to explore the votes that stayed put on Dyslexicon through the end of the day:
Long Con, Marmot, Elohcin, INH
Could you all at least briefly explain why you felt comfortable leaving your votes there? I am inclined to view it with some suspicion because I don't know that you all were fair in your treatment of Dizzy in the post-Slip era. The "slip" itself caused a bit of an uproar, and then it was explained, and then Dizzy went on what I would call a lengthy and productive hunt through the remainder of Day 1. Their content was thicker and more substantive than the majority of other players in this game -- so what was it that warranted this vote if the slip was granted to not be a slip?
Elohcin, you said you were following the pack. I am pretty sure I have seen you do this exact thing before in a game where you didn't keep up, though I can't remember which one or what your alignment was. I'll try to find it.
You remember my half true annoyance at Raven in Christmas mafia? Silver's generally about as bad and thinking I'm bad regardless of my real alignment, at least early on.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I'm not sure what you mean by the highlighted portion, could you restate/expand?Jackofhearts2005 wrote:Silver is town, imo. One of my most confident reads, along with Quin and Golden. As Fred said, he's case study townie Silver minus patented pursuit of me. (Silver and I tend to but heads as townies, which leads to head butting when one of us is scum, too.) I'm easily writing off not pursuing me because logically, that would be a huge mistake, here.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Question for the HCR folks:
What are your reads on each other?
It doesn't always. It depends upon the person and the circumstance. Sloonei had some concerns about Golden that he wanted to voice, and he did so without concern for standing opposite the general consensus about Golden otherwise -- it's not a lynch he is likely going to be able to generate on Day 2, which means there's little room for opportunism. The more likely reality is that he really is concerned, which would be a good thing. I also don't think it's likely he was deliberately pursuing a read like this one either.Metalmarsh89 wrote:How does going against the grain make a player genuine?
Excluding your top suspects, who is the person you would iso right now if you had time?JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I have very little time left this phase. I have no idea what kind of time constraints I'll be dealing with tomorrow. If anyone has any last requests for me, get 'em in now.
Since this has a time constraint I'll squeeze it in now.Golden wrote:I have to have a vote that can work as my final vote done in the next eight hours, because there's no guarantee I'll be able to get back (and an absolute guarantee I won't be able to be current with the thread) for at least the rest of the phase after that point.
So, to this end, while I do a bit more of a detailed reads list, I'd really like as many people as possible to give me gth reads or, preferably, a short precis of why they think each of the following people is a good or not good choice for a vote. As things stand right now, these are the people I have any level of active suspicion on.
Jay
Eloh
Marmot
inh
(No, I'm not looking to go with 'most popular vote', but I am already having trouble keeping up with everything due to my limited time, and this will help me make sure I have in the open points in favour and against these choices).
Also @Jay - I saw you said we don't know wilgy is dead, but it looks like he is dead from OP. In any event, because of the way polling works during the day, sprit I think it's worth clarifying whether or not someone who appears dead can actually be alive, and voteable. I'd assume not.
And Speed.Jackofhearts2005 wrote:Where the hell is LC?
Fred, Nut, what do you think of LC right now?
Having a birthday, I presume.Jackofhearts2005 wrote:Where the hell is LC?
I can attest to that, for myself, anyway. Not that that probably matters much, because who wouldn't - but it's true. The goal of making people feel welcome on this site, to have them enjoy their time and stay here and become members of the community - that trumps game decisions, every time.JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I think there may be some insight available in this Nacho kill. Yeah, WIFOM, I don't care. Thoughts:
~ He was generally given credit more often than not, but he wasn't given the most credit. There were a few other players, namely nutella and Golden, who were town read more universally. So I don't think that's likely to be the sole motive for a Nacho kill.
~ It was only his second game on the site, and his first as a civilian. If we're in a one-mafia-team scenario here, I think the driving voice behind that kill is more likely to be someone who is not a Syndicate regular. Most Syndicate regulars on this roster would be less inclined to kill a visitor on Night 1. It's technically not "wrong", but it's lame. The reason I distinguish one mafia team specifically is that if that's the case, it's likely a larger team which would by default clue that team a little bit into their solitude. In this situation they know themselves to be mafia and everyone else to not be mafia, or at least they have a reason to believe that. This means Nacho is being offed as a suspected civilian on Night 1 in his first civilian game on this website. I reiterate: lame. People I think would look better in this are Syndicate regulars who played with him last time: Quin, Golden, Scotty, Long Con, Soneji, Wilgy, Marmot, INH, Eloh. That's too many people, but I can reduce it further by focusing on those who I'd expect to have a prominent voice in Mafia BTSC: Quin, Golden, Scotty, and Long Con. Possibily Marmot and INH.
I know that's a crapload of speculation, but it was in my head and now it's in yours. Chew on it and do with it whatever you like.
~ He was not shy about stating confident reads. He might have been on the right track with enough of them to frighten the scum into killing him immediately despite not being the most-town-read player there was.
you may only vote for players listed as "On Board" on the OPspeedchuck wrote:"Is this guy alive so that we can kill him?"Golden wrote:sprit I think it's worth clarifying whether or not someone who appears dead can actually be alive, and voteable. I'd assume not.
Yeah, I'll get your requested reads down soon. Already did Marmot. Don't want to lynch him yet.
Asking what I think of LC, or what Fred and Nut think of me?Jackofhearts2005 wrote:And Speed.Jackofhearts2005 wrote:Where the hell is LC?
Fred, Nut, what do you think of LC right now?
Could also be a role that makes the player disappear for a day.sprityo wrote:you may only vote for players listed as "On Board" on the OPspeedchuck wrote:"Is this guy alive so that we can kill him?"Golden wrote:sprit I think it's worth clarifying whether or not someone who appears dead can actually be alive, and voteable. I'd assume not.
Yeah, I'll get your requested reads down soon. Already did Marmot. Don't want to lynch him yet.
I'm just posting as I read so ignore it if you've been asked/answered this already, but can you explain all of these pairings? Do you still believe in any number of them now?Dyslexicon wrote:Anyway. I'm over defending myself from playstyle policing. If players want to vote me I expect a written out case of why I'm scum.
I will also require a hug from JJJ.
---
Will look at anti-alignments later.
On the top of my head I have:
JJJ/Nutella
JJJ/Golden
JJJ/Strawhenge
Soneji/Silver
Spped/Golden
^The above pairs are not likely teamed imo, for certain interactions in thread.
Basically, if JJJ flips scum at some point there are some players that are likely spewed town.
Also, I missed that Dfray (don't recall his name) had posted once. In the post he said he was going to start reading. Nothing since. That doesn't fill me with confidence and is actually on the scummier side.
Jay I've touched on a lot.Golden wrote:I have to have a vote that can work as my final vote done in the next eight hours, because there's no guarantee I'll be able to get back (and an absolute guarantee I won't be able to be current with the thread) for at least the rest of the phase after that point.
So, to this end, while I do a bit more of a detailed reads list, I'd really like as many people as possible to give me gth reads or, preferably, a short precis of why they think each of the following people is a good or not good choice for a vote. As things stand right now, these are the people I have any level of active suspicion on.
Jay
Eloh
Marmot
inh
(No, I'm not looking to go with 'most popular vote', but I am already having trouble keeping up with everything due to my limited time, and this will help me make sure I have in the open points in favour and against these choices).
Also @Jay - I saw you said we don't know wilgy is dead, but it looks like he is dead from OP. In any event, because of the way polling works during the day, sprit I think it's worth clarifying whether or not someone who appears dead can actually be alive, and voteable. I'd assume not.
People often mafia while drunk here. I don't have an answer for you about the probability of it being town behavior or scum behavior, but I wouldn't read too deeply into it, myself.speedchuck wrote:I literally just said that B was a viable scum move.Jackofhearts2005 wrote:Explain how Option B is not a viable scum move.speedchuck wrote:Dizzy's slip options:
A. The slip was an accident. Dizzy covered it up by finding an example from a previous game.
B. The slip was on purpose to win town points.
C. The slip was on purpose, to cause an uproar on D1 and provide actual discussion, as a sacrificial catalyst. AKA For Teh LOLs
Option B is viable, though a stupid strategy, as we see how well that went.
Option C allows for the fakeslip to be a plan, without giving Dizzy too much credit for thinking everything out.
Current players with heavy suspicion of Dizzy: Silver, Marmot, LC
Current players with heavy suspicion of Dizzy that is actually related to slipgate that has not caused others to suspect them: Silver
Current players defending Dizzy: Speedchuck, JJJ
Current players calling it null or giving a slight town read on Dizzy: Quin, Nut, JoH, Golden, Fred, Straw
I call that a net win if Dizzy is scum, especially considering the general trust placed in JJJ, Nut, Quin and Golden.
Additionally, there was never a danger that Dizzy would be lynched for actual slip as he had the exact same move from another game in his back pocket to link to.
Explain how Option C is a good town move.
The only gain the town has gotten from all of this is maaaaybe a lead on LC for going at it when he should have backed off ("It's the dishonesty of it that gets me.") and maaaaaaybe a lead on Marmot for not reacting enough to it. Both of those are fairly large stretches and certainly not definitive without a flip.
Do you think Marmot or LC are scum?
C is not really a good town move. It wasn't a great play. Wasn't a good mafia move either.
My point was: Option A doesn't really work. That's my whole point. If you want to lynch Dizzy off of option B, be my guest.
Reads on Marmot and LC:
Marmot: light scum. He hasn't contributed much (as you said, not much reaction, but even related to other things) despite being here a good bit. The whole 'drunk' thing early day one reeked of building up trust (who would trust themselves to post as scum while drunk, I'm totes town), but IDK. I've never seen that sort of thing in a mafia game.
LC is hard to read. I'm honestly going back towards leaning town for him, because most of my issues with him are just disagreeing with his logic. I don't know his meta, but he seems like the type of person that doesn't back off when his logic is challenged. Players agreed early on in game that he was a defensive player in that sense.
Unvote
Yeah Strawhenge, it was pretty close to my feelings toward Long Con. I have trouble differentiating scum behavior from logic that I can't understand. It hurts to look at motives. I'll vote someone in the next few minutes.
Long Con is the first name to come to mind.Golden wrote:Excluding your top suspects, who is the person you would iso right now if you had time?JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I have very little time left this phase. I have no idea what kind of time constraints I'll be dealing with tomorrow. If anyone has any last requests for me, get 'em in now.