Re: MINECRAFT - NIGHT THREE
Posted: Tue Apr 09, 2013 9:59 pm
I think you certainly implied it MP.
Well, nights Mafia people xoxoxo
Well, nights Mafia people xoxoxo
He isn't. Ambray is either lying or wrong. My instinct is towards wrong.Ambray wrote:Yes.MovingPictures07 wrote:And you still firmly believe BWT to be the SK, correct?Ambray wrote:And I don't think there is any confusion. Not on my part anyway. I know what I know and unless you give me any indication to think differently, then I can't because it just isn't possible.
I think getting rid of the SK is more important the baddies atm because we need to eliminate a kill.
Hooold up, did i ever say you were bad? Nuh uh, I didn't. I said it pinged me a bit by how certain you were.Ambray wrote: Spaghetti, your logic of, I think she's bad because of how she is going after BWT has me confused. We don't know his role, so how does it make ME bad?![]()
Well, I suppose there's only way one to find out.Ambray wrote:Yes.MovingPictures07 wrote:And you still firmly believe BWT to be the SK, correct?Ambray wrote:And I don't think there is any confusion. Not on my part anyway. I know what I know and unless you give me any indication to think differently, then I can't because it just isn't possible.
I think getting rid of the SK is more important the baddies atm because we need to eliminate a kill.
Who is then?thellama73 wrote:He isn't. Ambray is either lying or wrong. My instinct is towards wrong.Ambray wrote:Yes.MovingPictures07 wrote:And you still firmly believe BWT to be the SK, correct?Ambray wrote:And I don't think there is any confusion. Not on my part anyway. I know what I know and unless you give me any indication to think differently, then I can't because it just isn't possible.
I think getting rid of the SK is more important the baddies atm because we need to eliminate a kill.
What say you? Snow Dog apparently was eyeing you considerably and he was the role blocker. Who do you think is baddie?>SpaghettiEverywhere wrote:Just because somebody pings me doesnt mean I think theyre bad. I like to give people the BOTD, i will wait till im COMPLETELY certain before i will say somebody is bad.
Who is then?[/quote]thellama73 wrote: He isn't. Ambray is either lying or wrong. My instinct is towards wrong.
How about stop having terrible ideas.MovingPictures07 wrote:How about Stevie NKs BWT?
Lol.
I was joking, hence the Lol. Haha.thellama73 wrote:How about stop having terrible ideas.MovingPictures07 wrote:How about Stevie NKs BWT?
Lol.
I dont know if I would say he was eying me, he just asked everyone's opinions of me and nobody ever answered me. I think he may have been suspicious of me because I haven't been posting much, even though that's kind of my playstyle. As for people who I think are bad, I think llama and BF might be bad. Llama has been accused of a lot, keeps reassuring us he is civvie, and never really seems to defend himself when called out, as well as never has much of a reason as to why he suspects somebody. As for BF, I think he has been pretty wishy washy and that vote for ambray seems like an attempt to bandwagon somebody into taking out a civvie. I think ambray is a civvie, but depending on if BWT gets lynched or not and how he turns up if he does get lynched could affect how i feel about ambray.MovingPictures07 wrote:What say you? Snow Dog apparently was eyeing you considerably and he was the role blocker. Who do you think is baddie?>SpaghettiEverywhere wrote:Just because somebody pings me doesnt mean I think theyre bad. I like to give people the BOTD, i will wait till im COMPLETELY certain before i will say somebody is bad.
You do realize this is a ballsy move on both your and Ambray's parts, correct? Because if one of you is incorrect here, you are going so very down.thellama73 wrote:I was also joking, hence the winky.
Based on voting record, I would go for Boogs. Based on pinginess, I would pick DP. I suspected him at the beginning and allowed myself to be distracted from my purpose. I now that that was a mistake.
I am going to bed, but I will say one more thing. I don't know anything for certain. I am very confused about what is going on. But if I had to vouch for only one person in this game besides myself, it would be BWT.
Fair enough, thank you good sir.>SpaghettiEverywhere wrote:I dont know if I would say he was eying me, he just asked everyone's opinions of me and nobody ever answered me. I think he may have been suspicious of me because I haven't been posting much, even though that's kind of my playstyle. As for people who I think are bad, I think llama and BF might be bad. Llama has been accused of a lot, keeps reassuring us he is civvie, and never really seems to defend himself when called out, as well as never has much of a reason as to why he suspects somebody. As for BF, I think he has been pretty wishy washy and that vote for ambray seems like an attempt to bandwagon somebody into taking out a civvie. I think ambray is a civvie, but depending on if BWT gets lynched or not and how he turns up if he does get lynched could affect how i feel about ambray.MovingPictures07 wrote:What say you? Snow Dog apparently was eyeing you considerably and he was the role blocker. Who do you think is baddie?>SpaghettiEverywhere wrote:Just because somebody pings me doesnt mean I think theyre bad. I like to give people the BOTD, i will wait till im COMPLETELY certain before i will say somebody is bad.
I'm very well aware of this, which is why I think we are both probably on the side of good, but one of us has bad info.MovingPictures07 wrote:You do realize this is a ballsy move on both your and Ambray's parts, correct? Because if one of you is incorrect here, you are going so very down.thellama73 wrote:I was also joking, hence the winky.
Based on voting record, I would go for Boogs. Based on pinginess, I would pick DP. I suspected him at the beginning and allowed myself to be distracted from my purpose. I now that that was a mistake.
I am going to bed, but I will say one more thing. I don't know anything for certain. I am very confused about what is going on. But if I had to vouch for only one person in this game besides myself, it would be BWT.
Even when I'm trying to speak up I'm quiet. Lovely.thellama73 wrote:Here's a thought. I think all of us engaged in this argument are probably civvies who have been duped in some way. Maybe we should focus on the people being quiet. (SE, DP, Boogs, BF)
What am I supposed to do if someone else has already said the same thing before I have, yet I still believe it? Its not like i'm going to throw out some other idea just to be "origional" with my postsRoxy wrote:Just my little bit of input here
I doubt I will be lynching llama or Teeth anytime soon. I am willing to give them a chance plus I want to see what Teeth has to say about llama as well.
I thought spaghetti's last post was full of blendy and really is just rewording of other peoples suspicions without answering the actual suspicions against him. In other words he seemed to say something when he really didn't. Says he would lynch llama or bf or Teeth and if flips civ then he will rethink Ambray. Idk it just feels like heres some of the same you have been saying and I am going to follow the crowd with my vote.
Wrong, The only time I was part of the big crowds of votes were when epi was lynched and russ was lynched.Roxy wrote:Yes spaghetti but this has been your m.o. for the whole game. I mean I get you are normally a low poster but you have blended in with suspicions for the whole game, I don't have vote records but I bet you went with the crowd for your votes.
BF possibly. Why are you not voting llama or teeth?Roxy wrote:Also you are leaving yourself with all sorts of outs.
Your vote will go to one of three people that in and of itself is easy for anyone to say - but a blendy person does it for the entire game.
Linky well tbh those votes actually make my nose twitch - everyone knew Edpig was going down so yah I am sure his teamies voted him and with russti well he was civ.
Idk spaghetti we are getting down to the final baddies and I am not voting llama or teeth and probs not Ambray just yet so - here is where I am at.
Where else would you have us look for lynch if not those that I just listed?
I'm not sure what the point of this is. It's full of, really, non information...stuff that is obvious....you aren't breaking any news here. Or maybe, I just don't understand what you are getting at. I dunno.thellama73 wrote:Okay, I've been thinking about the situation with Ambray and me. Here's my analysis of the possibilities.
Possibility One: We are both baddies.
Possibility Two: One of us is good and the other bad.
Possibility Three: We are both good, but one of us has received false info.
I don't think Possibility One is tenable (in fact, I know it to be false, since I know I am good), so I am going to discard that if you don't mind. Since we don't know whether Possibility Two or Three is the case, let's say it is a fifty-fifty chance. Therefore, if you lynch one of use, there is a 75% chance you will get a civvie. If the happens, the other will be implicated as a liar, and you will have little choice but to go after them the following day, regardless of whether Possibility Two or Three is actually the case.
Peruing this avenue leads to:
a 25% percent chance of lynching one baddie.
a 25% chance of lynching a civvie, followed by a baddie
and a 50% chance of lynching two civvies.
Those are not good odds. Given that there are at least two other baddies hiding among the other players, I think it makes much more sense to go after them than to come after Ambray and me, even if one of us turns out to be bad, which I doubt.
It may be obvious to you, but it may not be to everyone else. There was some talk that either Ambray or I were lying and that perhaps one of us should be lynched. I was merely attempting to use math and logic to show why that would be a poor choice. I wasn't attempting to break news, I was providing analysis of things we all already know.reywaS wrote: I'm not sure what the point of this is. It's full of, really, non information...stuff that is obvious....you aren't breaking any news here. Or maybe, I just don't understand what you are getting at. I dunno.
No, this is different than any other two players, because if a lynch of one of us turns up a civvie, it will inevitably lead to a lynch of the other. If you lynch me and find out I was telling the truth, you will be forced to lynch Ambray as well. If you lynch her and she flips civvie, you will be forced to lynch me. Thus, the probability of lynching not one, but two civvies is higher than it would be with other players due to the perceived link between us.reywaS wrote:Yes, but my point was that you could use that same logic using any two players in this game. You are taking away people's suspicions in your break down there.
Oh wow! When reading back through the thread to get the voting order I came across this post by Russ which I had COMPLETELTY forgotten about!!!Flyin' High wrote:RIPIYWG Elohcin and He-Man! I was leaning bad for Elohcin and good for He-Man.
Indi was one of the people that voted for Epignosis on Day 1 so the likelihood of her being bad is pretty slim to nonexistent if you ask me.Russtifinko wrote:Wow, a guy goes Öb vacation and suddenly he's evil! I'm busy as have only phone access (and limited, at that) until Wednesday, as I stated. You can lynch me before then if you really want, or I can mount a defense when I get home. If you do lynch me, you'll understand why I can personally guarantee either boogs or indi is bad. I'm leaning that it was indi and Herobrine did us a favor, but boogs bears a look just in case.
For the little it's worth, is it so far-fetched that I made a correct judgment? I know it's only my third game, but I'm fairly intelligent. I explained clearly the logical steps I took at the time to conclude it was Epi. I believe BWT's post was saying that in rl I'm a logical guy, so he may believe me at least.
Beyond that, make your own conclusions at least until wed. MP has, apparently, and that worked out very well for us last lynch, so I can't fault people for following him. MP, in a recent post you said you don't feel bad about sometimes being wrong in your suspicions. If I die, I hope this changes your mind some. You have unmatched power in thus game, and killing everyone you suspect may eventually lead to a win since you're experienced and good, but at the expense of some civvie lives. I was thinking maybe I could win this one for the first time, that seems unlikely now. Shame you chose to do this when I can't adequately defend. Good night all
Right, and indi was an Epignosis voter and was killed by Herobrine so it couldn't have been her. Whoever Russ targeted on Night 1 or 2 must have been targeted by both indi and Boogs on the same night and was also either killed or had a kill attempted on them that night which would have led Russ to say that.thellama73 wrote:If we trust Russ that either indi or Boogs is bad, I would bet Boogs since he voted for a civvie four nights in a row.
I had voted for Snow 2 times because I felt he was bad and have been consistent with voting on how I felt. It is my first game so maybe I don't pick up as some others. I felt confident Snow was bad but obviously was proven wrong. Honestly, I really feel the lynch needs to be BWT because Ambray was on to something but I'm not going to say more to give info to the baddies.Flyin' High wrote:Right, and indi was an Epignosis voter and was killed by Herobrine so it couldn't have been her. Whoever Russ targeted on Night 1 or 2 must have been targeted by both indi and Boogs on the same night and was also either killed or had a kill attempted on them that night which would have led Russ to say that.thellama73 wrote:If we trust Russ that either indi or Boogs is bad, I would bet Boogs since he voted for a civvie four nights in a row.
After I'm done reading through Day 3 I want to go back through boogs' posts again and also see who may have been defending boogs (blindfaeth immediately comes to mind).
Hrm, so you think she was the Skeleton then? I'd rather her have been the Skeleton because his role can have a much more negative impact on polls.Ambray wrote:I don't think Elo was the Spider.
That's a good catch FH, definitely something to look at.
If you think BF is good, Boogs. Who do you think the remaining baddies are, besides BWT?Boogs wrote:I had voted for Snow 2 times because I felt he was bad and have been consistent with voting on how I felt. It is my first game so maybe I don't pick up as some others. I felt confident Snow was bad but obviously was proven wrong. Honestly, I really feel the lynch needs to be BWT because Ambray was on to something but I'm not going to say more to give info to the baddies.Flyin' High wrote:Right, and indi was an Epignosis voter and was killed by Herobrine so it couldn't have been her. Whoever Russ targeted on Night 1 or 2 must have been targeted by both indi and Boogs on the same night and was also either killed or had a kill attempted on them that night which would have led Russ to say that.thellama73 wrote:If we trust Russ that either indi or Boogs is bad, I would bet Boogs since he voted for a civvie four nights in a row.
After I'm done reading through Day 3 I want to go back through boogs' posts again and also see who may have been defending boogs (blindfaeth immediately comes to mind).
As for BF, we both have been busy and haven't been on and posting as much as MP and others. That doesn't make us being low posters "bad" because we have other thing going on. BF has been pretty good seeing who is bad and I think he is also Civ.
Others have been wrong lynching Civs including MP himself leading the Russ lynch.