Game of Champions 2017 - GAME OVER

[S~V~S]

I don't think it was choice based recruit, thinking about it. I would expect LC to want to recruit probably DH, possibly me, but neither of us was NK until after he died.

Any insights on who Marmot might want to recruit, that was not NKed? So we could potentially put paid to that idea? Or disprove it, like if Marmot would want to recruit Jack, say, someone who was NK while he was alive, that would say choice recruiting was still possible.

Also who has not died one time yet?

Anyhow, gotta worrk, bai, bbl.

[colonialbob]

If dom is bad, he isn't on LC's team anyway.

Neither am I though

[Quin]

So what would you think? Three original and one first death recruit?

I wonder what the mechanism would be? If it was number based, like the first NK your team makes, or choice based, the baddies could find out who other baddies are, because their recruit would fail since I would guess they can't recruit from another team.

So either the baddies have info, or it is a random recruiting mechanism, imo. Would lynched people be excluded from the recruit process, since they would bring baggage?

I think Jack was civ both times. He moved from one life to the next cleanly.

This is something to think about, and what it basically says is no one can be excluded based on thread, because the person you just tried to lynch could be your new partner.

Anyone have any thoughts on anyone who change suspicions? Maybe came back from the Pet Semetary?

I am inclined to say that it's just a random reincarnation and would include lynchees. That's my preference for assignment more than an educated take on it.

[colonialbob]

So what would you think? Three original and one first death recruit?

I wonder what the mechanism would be? If it was number based, like the first NK your team makes, or choice based, the baddies could find out who other baddies are, because their recruit would fail since I would guess they can't recruit from another team.

So either the baddies have info, or it is a random recruiting mechanism, imo. Would lynched people be excluded from the recruit process, since they would bring baggage?

I think Jack was civ both times. He moved from one life to the next cleanly.

This is something to think about, and what it basically says is no one can be excluded based on thread, because the person you just tried to lynch could be your new partner.

Anyone have any thoughts on anyone who change suspicions? Maybe came back from the Pet Semetary?

I am inclined to say that it's just a random reincarnation and would include lynchees. That's my preference for assignment more than an educated take on it.

If I was setting up this scenario (always a dangerous path to take but we're already well into speculation) I'd have the mafia roles predetermined, so (for example) there's a pair of roles where the first is civ and then when it dies the player is told they're actually a cylon mafia. We already know the first part of that is true, don't we? (Roles are paired)

[colonialbob]

I'll ask this again: what evidence is there that the Evens kill on even nights and strex on odd?

The only pre-button NK in Pikachu was SVS on N6, we know we had Evens in Pikachu, we don't know we had Strex. It's more lack of counter-evidence i think.

[S~V~S]

So what would you think? Three original and one first death recruit?

I wonder what the mechanism would be? If it was number based, like the first NK your team makes, or choice based, the baddies could find out who other baddies are, because their recruit would fail since I would guess they can't recruit from another team.

So either the baddies have info, or it is a random recruiting mechanism, imo. Would lynched people be excluded from the recruit process, since they would bring baggage?

I think Jack was civ both times. He moved from one life to the next cleanly.

This is something to think about, and what it basically says is no one can be excluded based on thread, because the person you just tried to lynch could be your new partner.

Anyone have any thoughts on anyone who change suspicions? Maybe came back from the Pet Semetary?

I am inclined to say that it's just a random reincarnation and would include lynchees. That's my preference for assignment more than an educated take on it.

That would make the most sense to me, as well. Less target painting, harder to figure it out. If there was a mechanism, then once you caught one teams recruit, you could easily catch the other. So my guess is three original baddies per team, and one rando recruit. So Evens, LC, Nutella and one in Cerberus, and Strex, Marmot, Wilgy and a third... ? Is the reasoning for no Strex in Picachu that there were no Strex kills there? Or was there more to it that I missed?

If dom is bad, he isn't on LC's team anyway.

Neither am I though

Yeah, of everyone you are the least likely to be original Even, because Nutella would not have been the last to vote for you. I think Dom is very unlikely as an original Even, too.

[S~V~S]

In any case, I don't think any of us original Pikachus are likely to be an original Even, having had two confirmed Evens in our thread. At least one Even had to be in Strex, and four originals plus possible recruits seems way overpowered, especially if there are indys. Although unless there is something I am missing about the No Strex in Picachu theory, one of us could be a Strex.

[Scotty]

I don’t think the mafia kills one of their own on night 1.

We should lynch players twice if we seriously think they’re bad. Played a game like this on the realms and there were some wasted phases lynching the first of a player’s roles for basically no info and then leaving them alive for several days.

A really ballsy/crazy scum team would. So like wilgy, mac, marmot, but i don't think a more traditional team would

[Sloonei]

If niju is strex then she and nutella (an Even) started the game with inter-team BTSC. There's a part of me that can see that being the case.

[sig]

I don’t think the mafia kills one of their own on night 1.

We should lynch players twice if we seriously think they’re bad. Played a game like this on the realms and there were some wasted phases lynching the first of a player’s roles for basically no info and then leaving them alive for several days.

A really ballsy/crazy scum team would. So like wilgy, mac, marmot, but i don't think a more traditional team would

2/3 is pretty good , I'm amazing.

And now wanna lynch someone who died early.
I'd be good for a slang.


I dislike ddl whole player salad, i see nothing wrong with popping in and giving ny thoughts on lots of players trying to discourage that by saying it looks bad isn't a good strategy.

Also note a slang, bloober, wilgy team is possible in my mind.

[sig]

If niju is strex then she and nutella (an Even) started the game with inter-team BTSC. There's a part of me that can see that being the case.

It would explain how LC knew about the other chat

[sig]

Bob, quin, svs, and inh aren't on wilgy's team. If one could be it would be svs, but doubt it.

[Scotty]

I’m going to post speedchuck’s brainbubble for reference:

Cerberus V1:
Boomslang
DrWilgy - Strex
insertnamehere - on 2nd life
JackofHearts - killed by Strex twice, probably town
Kylemii
LoRab - Button that switched and merged tribes.
Marmot - Strex
nijuukyugou - killed night 1 by Strex, nutella's BTSC partner
Scotty
sig
Sloonei - selected to spy on other tribe
Spacedaisy
-------(At least one Even present in Cerberus)-------

Pikachu V1:
colonialbob - First role was a trap. Evens sprung that trap. Likely not an Even.
dharmahelper - on 2nd life
Dom - Called out LC's slip. Not an Even. Candidate for haiku.
Dragon D Luffy - Accidentally died, then rezzed with 2 lives in second role. LC was the reason for the rez. But that also killed nutella.
Epignosis - Has been trying to clear town. Candidate for haiku?
Long Con - Even
Nutella - Even
Quin - still townfirmed
Speedchuck - mathematically confirmed town with first role.
sprityo - First role was Cecil, town? announcer
S~V~S - First role was a trap that SVS tried her best not to spring. Towny behavior.
-------(No evidence of Strexcorp presence)-------

Cerberus V2:
Boomslang
ColonialBob - First role was a trap. Evens sprung that trap. Likely not an Even.
Dom - Called out LC's slip. Not an Even. Candidate for haiku.
Dragon D. Luffy - Accidentally died, then rezzed with 2 lives in second role. LC was the reason for the rez. But that also killed nutella.
insertnamehere - on 2nd life
LoRab - Button that switched and merged tribes
Nijuukyugou - killed night 1, nutella's BTSC partner
Quin - still townfirmed
sig
S~V~S - First role was a trap that SVS tried her best not to spring. Towny behavior. Killed by Evens.
Speedchuck - mathematically confirmed town with first role.

Pikachu V2:
dharmahelper - on 2nd life
DrWilgy - Strex
Epignosis - Has been trying to clear town. Candidate for haiku?
Kylemii
Marmot - Strex
nutella - Even
Scotty - has been nightkilled once, by the evens
Sloonei - selected to spy on other tribe in v1
Spacedaisy
sprityo - First role was Cecil, town? announcer

Players that moved from Pikachu to Cerberus: cbob, dom, ddl, quin, svs, speedchuck
Players that moved from Cerberus to Pikachu: Wilgy, Kyle, Marmot, Scotty, Sloonei, Daisy

DEATHS:
D1 - Quin - survived
N1 - niju (Strexkill)
D2 - speedchuck
N2 - Scotty (Evens)
D3 - nutella (changed from DDL)
N3 - JoH (Strexkill)
INH dies
D4 - Long Con
N4 - Evens blocked by Strex
D5 - Long Con
N5 - Sig (Strex)
D6 - Cbob
N6 - SVS (Evens)
D7 - Marmot

BUTTON

N7 - JoH (Strex)
Nutella dies
D8 - Marmot
N8 - Sprityo (Evens)
LoRab Dies

MERGE

D9 - Wilgy
N9 - DharmaHelper (Strex)
D10 - speedchuck
N10 - No kill (Evens)
D11- Wilgy

—————————————————————————

Current Lives Left (as of N11)
Boomslang - 2
colonialbob - 1
DharmaHelper - 1
Dom - 2
Dragon D Luffy - 2
Epignosis - 2
insertnamehere - 1
Kylemii - 2
LoRab - 1
Nijuu - 1
Quin - 2
Scotty - 1
sig - 1
Sloonei - 2
SpaceDaisy - 2
sprityo - 1
SVS - 1

[Sloonei]

If niju is strex then she and nutella (an Even) started the game with inter-team BTSC. There's a part of me that can see that being the case.

It would explain how LC knew about the other chat

So would the existence of a single Even in Cerberus.

[sig]

If niju is strex then she and nutella (an Even) started the game with inter-team BTSC. There's a part of me that can see that being the case.

It would explain how LC knew about the other chat

So would the existence of a single Even in Cerberus.

[Scotty]

Bob, quin, svs, and inh aren't on wilgy's team. If one could be it would be svs, but doubt it.

Explain

[Sloonei]

Bob, quin, svs, and inh aren't on wilgy's team. If one could be it would be svs, but doubt it.

why? x5

linki: yeah what he said

[Sloonei]

The focus of kills on Cerberus to start the game suggests that we probably had both mafia teams present in our tribe from the beginning.

[colonialbob]

As one of those people I'm also interested in an explanation

[Sloonei]

RE: "Recruitment" mechanism, Golden said this early in the Cerberus thread:

2nd roles are not assigned randomly. They were paired and the players received a pair at random.

As was noted in the second post of the thread, the split of players into tribes was random. There is no guarantee of any particular number or ratio of any alignment in the tribe.

[colonialbob]

RE: "Recruitment" mechanism, Golden said this early in the Cerberus thread:

2nd roles are not assigned randomly. They were paired and the players received a pair at random.

As was noted in the second post of the thread, the split of players into tribes was random. There is no guarantee of any particular number or ratio of any alignment in the tribe.

Thanks, yeah, that's why I think that even if there was somebody who went from civ 1st life to mafia 2nd life that was a set part of the role pairing, not what I'd call a "recruitment".

[Spacedaisy]

I just had a thought. If we believe that there is at least one civ role which has a mafia role for their second life, then it seems to me that mafia would want to push as many first lynches of people as they can without following through to second lynches. This might be a good thing to go back and look for. Who was keen to lynch someone and then abandoned that person to move onto the next lynch? They could have been mining for their hidden teammate.

[juliets]

Please note night will end at 6:38 pm EDT. Your pms are due by 4:38 pm EDT and thank you in advance for getting them in early.

[colonialbob]

I just had a thought. If we believe that there is at least one civ role which has a mafia role for their second life, then it seems to me that mafia would want to push as many first lynches of people as they can without following through to second lynches. This might be a good thing to go back and look for. Who was keen to lynch someone and then abandoned that person to move onto the next lynch? They could have been mining for their hidden teammate.

Despite great personal risk, I will say my first role is kinda tailor-made for that type of mechanic.

(I'm town tho, through and through)

[Spacedaisy]

I don't really understand what you mean, but if you are town I would rather you not talk about something that could put you at risk.

[Sloonei]

RE: "Recruitment" mechanism, Golden said this early in the Cerberus thread:

2nd roles are not assigned randomly. They were paired and the players received a pair at random.

As was noted in the second post of the thread, the split of players into tribes was random. There is no guarantee of any particular number or ratio of any alignment in the tribe.

Thanks, yeah, that's why I think that even if there was somebody who went from civ 1st life to mafia 2nd life that was a set part of the role pairing, not what I'd call a "recruitment".

Agreed.

[colonialbob]

I don't really understand what you mean, but if you are town I would rather you not talk about something that could put you at risk.

Go look at my role flip.

(I bring it up in the WIFOM-y hope that a mafia member would keep quiet and hope nobody notices)

[Sloonei]

who is everyon's preferred lynch for tomorrow?

[sprityo]

who is everyon's preferred lynch for tomorrow?

I don’t have a solid decision yet, so I wanna wait until day start to decide

[Scotty]

who is everyon's preferred lynch for tomorrow?

Sig, if he doesn’t come back and answer for that comment.

Nijuu possibly.

One of them should get lynched tomorrow IMO

[sig]

Bob, quin, svs, and inh aren't on wilgy's team. If one could be it would be svs, but doubt it.

why? x5

linki: yeah what he said

I don't think it's as likely since they're outliers who voted for a random wagon. I believe it would've been more logical for a teammate to push Wilgy's lynch perhaps even get the wagon going. Like it was clear Wilgy was getting lynched today and even if he wasn't he was an inactive player, so if someone was seeking civ credit it wouldn't make sense to throw a stray vote, but to vote for him early.

[sig]

who is everyon's preferred lynch for tomorrow?

Sig, if he doesn’t come back and answer for that comment.

Nijuu possibly.

One of them should get lynched tomorrow IMO

[nijuukyugou]

I'm still waiting for @nijuukyugou to tell me what she thinks of LoRab.

I'll have to massively catch up, methinks, before giving that (or anything) a thoughtful response. It's the last week before spring break at a high school, so it's been hellishly busy and draining on my end. Bear with me, y'all.

[nijuukyugou]

who is everyon's preferred lynch for tomorrow?

Sig, if he doesn’t come back and answer for that comment.

Nijuu possibly.

One of them should get lynched tomorrow IMO

Let's not do that k

[Scotty]

who is everyon's preferred lynch for tomorrow?

Sig, if he doesn’t come back and answer for that comment.

Nijuu possibly.

One of them should get lynched tomorrow IMO

Let's not do that k

y

[sprityo]

who is everyon's preferred lynch for tomorrow?

Sig, if he doesn’t come back and answer for that comment.

Nijuu possibly.

One of them should get lynched tomorrow IMO

Let's not do that k

Fixed

[nijuukyugou]

who is everyon's preferred lynch for tomorrow?

Sig, if he doesn’t come back and answer for that comment.

Nijuu possibly.

One of them should get lynched tomorrow IMO

Let's not do that k

y

I was about to ask the same question - why do so? It would save me a little bit of the slog of pages I haven't read.

[Scotty]

who is everyon's preferred lynch for tomorrow?

Sig, if he doesn’t come back and answer for that comment.

Nijuu possibly.

One of them should get lynched tomorrow IMO

Let's not do that k

Fixed

you found me at starbucks

[quote=Scotty post_id=427097 time=<a href="tel:1522349269">1522349269</a> user_id=410]
[quote=nijuukyugou post_id=427096 time=<a href="tel:1522349231">1522349231</a> user_id=295]
[quote=Scotty post_id=427082 time=<a href="tel:1522341565">1522341565</a> user_id=410]
[quote=Sloonei post_id=427071 time=<a href="tel:1522340343">1522340343</a> user_id=405]
who is everyon's preferred lynch for tomorrow?

Sig, if he doesn’t come back and answer for that comment.

Nijuu possibly.

One of them should get lynched tomorrow IMO
[/quote]
Let's not do that k
[/quote]
y
[/quote]
I was about to ask the same question - why do so? It would save me a little bit of the slog of pages I haven't read.
[/quote]
What is your current opinion of Boomslang?

He’s probably posted just as much as you have, so no need to go back trough everything for that.

I know your time is limited, but since you are still at least perusing the thread, do you have any red flags on people?

[Epignosis]

I like the flow of you guys right now. It’s like a pork roast on Fourth of July and no one is vegetarian

Do you have a file cabinet full of these?

No. The pork would spoil

Nice.

[Epignosis]

I'll ask this again: what evidence is there that the Evens kill on even nights and strex on odd?

This:

Here are the kills I can see on even nights:

N2 - Scotty
N4 - None
N6 - SVS
N8 - Sprityo
N10 - None

If there was a team that might have an inactive, this might be a good one to consider. But I am thinking perhaps there is someone who messed with their kill somehow. Either a block or a protect or something perhaps?

I hypothesized that Marmot blocked all actions on N4. N10, Wilgy could have used his power swap Madness one-shot and who the hell can predict what all transpired there

[Spacedaisy]

Wht evidence do you see in that?

[Epignosis]

Wht evidence do you see in that?

Spoiler: show

The lynching of Long Con was barely over when the snow began to fall. Gently at first, but it built stronger, and it wasn't long before a full on blizzard was occurring. No-one could see anyone else, and it was all they could do to huddle in whatever sheltered spot they could find. No-one could explain such an event in Fiji... and they were in Fiji.... weren't they??

No-one has died. It is now day 5, which will last for 48 hours.

Things had been going smoothly on Team Pikachu for days. Consensus had been easily built, lynchings were prolific. Everyone was happy. But on day seven, things took a turn for the… divisive.

“Suddenly, this game got hard” said nutella “I’m strapped to a bomb vest, AND I don’t know who to vote for.”

“Neither do I” said Dharmahelper “But I’m all in on ties”

“Please do not lynch me
As if you could, I’m haiku’d
That’s perfect timing” said dom

“What’s up with the votes for me” said colonialbob “Is it just because you don’t like bombs?”

“I have solved the game.” Said Epignosis “it hinges around the number 32.”

“Ooooh, I know” said Quin “32 is Mr Freeze. That explains the blizzard.”

“I am the moon, I am the sun” sang speedchuck. He was busy composing a song, having nothing he’d prefer to do with his time.

Everyone started writing lists and listicles. Dragon D. Luffy wrote a “Ten people most likely to be bad at Pikachu” list, but realised that was everyone. Sprityo wrote a “10 ways the hosts are most likely to reference Phenon” list. S~V~S got in on the action, writing a “10 ways to use the word shiggles” list. Everyone was so involved, they barely noticed the sun set.

"Hey look" said nutella "I got this thing off! Thanks for your help, everyone."

Day 7 has ended. Marmot has been lynched. He was:

79: Mt Erebus (Mountain). Frequent blizzards cause loss of visibility. Twice in the game, once during a day phase and once during a night phase, you may prevent any abilities or effects from occurring. Any x-shot abilities used will consume a shot. If any ability or effect has already taken place before you use your ability in a phase, your ability will be consumed without effect, however there will be a risk of death to those who have ventured out into the blizzard.

It is now night 7. It will last for 24 hours, meaning you have 22 hours to get your PMs in

[S~V~S]

Well, for one, if Marmot, a member of Strex, blocked actions on Night 4, why would he block his own teams kill? So Strex prolly did not kill on even nights.

i don't know if that's what Epi's getting at, but that's what I got out of this.

[Spacedaisy]

That is what Epi is saying. Thanks guys. Foggy med brain, k? But I see now the proof.

[S~V~S]

That is what Epi is saying. Thanks guys. Foggy med brain, k? But I see now the proof.

He's a teacher, he doesn't just want to tell us the answer, he wants to make us think

[Spacedaisy]

LOL, his method didn't bother me actually. Helps me to see it myself.

[Epignosis]

I don't want to think about being a teacher for the next ten days, except grades are due tonight even though the quarter just ended, the state is making us take a fricken survey, and we have to update our professional development plans. They are killing me with stuff to do. I'm one person.

[Spacedaisy]

cbob, I'm trying to think through what connection you are making between what I was saying and what you were saying... I think it raises a question or two in my mind. Has it been overlooked? I need to go back and see what happened directly after the flip I think.

[Sloonei]

I don't want to think about being a teacher for the next ten days, except grades are due tonight even though the quarter just ended, the state is making us take a fricken survey, and we have to update our professional development plans. They are killing me with stuff to do. I'm one person.

Hey I'm also gonna need a full collection of ISOs before EOD if you could get on that, thanks.

[Spacedaisy]

Disregard my previous questioning, it's irrelevant. I forgot about poll order being off. I'm not sure I follow now what your point was, but... ok.