Page 28 of 34

Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Day 4]

Posted: Wed Feb 27, 2019 10:44 pm
by Jackofhearts2005
Wait, no it's not.

Consensus rainbow was like Nova, Bob, Nutella, Leet/Jack, Audrey, Sabie, Rey. Shooting in the middle of that doesn't scream "targeted." 42% chance of a random shot from Audrey hitting above Jack/Leet in terms of suspicions.

Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Day 4]

Posted: Wed Feb 27, 2019 10:48 pm
by leetic
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Wed Feb 27, 2019 10:44 pm Wait, no it's not.

Consensus rainbow was like Nova, Bob, Nutella, Leet/Jack, Audrey, Sabie, Rey. Shooting in the middle of that doesn't scream "targeted." 42% chance of a random shot from Audrey hitting above Jack/Leet in terms of suspicions.
Thing is, nova doesn't really post much at all and bob only posts occasionally. Being more active, nutella could be argued as posing a bigger threat to scum than the previous two, and she was unlikely to get mislynches either. This doesn't clear Audrey, and if needed a third nightkill could show more to the story, but I think it could easily be argued that nutella was the optimal shot here.

Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Day 4]

Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2019 12:42 am
by colonialbob
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Wed Feb 27, 2019 10:39 pm RIP Nutella.

7 players. Assuming a kill isn't stopped or mafia doesn't shoot inside the POE, POE needs to be 3. Mine is Audrey, Rey and then I guess Sabie, even though she's probably just town.

@colonialbob Why is Audrey not in the POE?
Convince me she should be.

Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Day 4]

Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:07 am
by sabie12
Aww RIP nutella!
If you look at nutella's last few posts she was suspecting leetic. She also was defending audrey so I don't know why audrey would kill her off if she was defending her. Is there clarification as to whether night kills can be randomized if they don't submit something?

Leetic why do you say I'm suspicious?

I'm thinking leetic or reywas but this games been a little tough to read. Maybe leetic didn't like nutella saying he was bad. Maybe the kill made sense to him because he did it. Maybe people have been right about Rey all along.

Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Day 4]

Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2019 4:16 pm
by leetic
*sigh* No activity? If I have to put pressure on people to promote activity, so be it. [mention]reywaS[/mention] tell me why I should not vote you right now.

Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Day 4]

Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2019 4:37 pm
by Jackofhearts2005
colonialbob wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 12:42 am
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Wed Feb 27, 2019 10:39 pm RIP Nutella.

7 players. Assuming a kill isn't stopped or mafia doesn't shoot inside the POE, POE needs to be 3. Mine is Audrey, Rey and then I guess Sabie, even though she's probably just town.

@colonialbob Why is Audrey not in the POE?
Convince me she should be.
That’s not how POE works. Everyone’s in the POE until you take them out. You’ve taken Audrey out. Why?

Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Day 4]

Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2019 6:22 pm
by novaselinenever
I'm back.

Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Day 4]

Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:08 pm
by novaselinenever
I'm at a Jack/Leetic/Sabie PoE

Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Day 4]

Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:18 pm
by novaselinenever
[VOTE: Jackofheats] aubergine f

Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Day 4]

Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:00 pm
by colonialbob
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 4:37 pm
colonialbob wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 12:42 am
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Wed Feb 27, 2019 10:39 pm RIP Nutella.

7 players. Assuming a kill isn't stopped or mafia doesn't shoot inside the POE, POE needs to be 3. Mine is Audrey, Rey and then I guess Sabie, even though she's probably just town.

@colonialbob Why is Audrey not in the POE?
Convince me she should be.
That’s not how POE works. Everyone’s in the POE until you take them out. You’ve taken Audrey out. Why?
Luna/Audrey D1 interaction

Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Day 4]

Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:58 pm
by Jackofhearts2005
colonialbob wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:00 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 4:37 pm
colonialbob wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 12:42 am
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Wed Feb 27, 2019 10:39 pm RIP Nutella.

7 players. Assuming a kill isn't stopped or mafia doesn't shoot inside the POE, POE needs to be 3. Mine is Audrey, Rey and then I guess Sabie, even though she's probably just town.

@colonialbob Why is Audrey not in the POE?
Convince me she should be.
That’s not how POE works. Everyone’s in the POE until you take them out. You’ve taken Audrey out. Why?
Luna/Audrey D1 interaction
You're talking about Luna appearing to not know how old Audrey was?

Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Day 4]

Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2019 9:00 pm
by reywaS
leetic wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 4:16 pm *sigh* No activity? If I have to put pressure on people to promote activity, so be it. @reywaS tell me why I should not vote you right now.
because a good civvie would not want a mislynch today?

Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Day 4]

Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2019 9:01 pm
by reywaS
TBH im starting to think/hope that leetic is mafia, so my silly mafia read list from day 1 would be 100% accurate.

That would probably win a Socky award, no?

Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Day 4]

Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2019 9:01 pm
by colonialbob
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:58 pm
colonialbob wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:00 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 4:37 pm
colonialbob wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 12:42 am
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Wed Feb 27, 2019 10:39 pm RIP Nutella.

7 players. Assuming a kill isn't stopped or mafia doesn't shoot inside the POE, POE needs to be 3. Mine is Audrey, Rey and then I guess Sabie, even though she's probably just town.

@colonialbob Why is Audrey not in the POE?
Convince me she should be.
That’s not how POE works. Everyone’s in the POE until you take them out. You’ve taken Audrey out. Why?
Luna/Audrey D1 interaction
You're talking about Luna appearing to not know how old Audrey was?
Yeah (and also how she reacted to it)

Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Day 4]

Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2019 9:10 pm
by Jackofhearts2005
colonialbob wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 9:01 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:58 pm
colonialbob wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:00 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 4:37 pm
colonialbob wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 12:42 am
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Wed Feb 27, 2019 10:39 pm RIP Nutella.

7 players. Assuming a kill isn't stopped or mafia doesn't shoot inside the POE, POE needs to be 3. Mine is Audrey, Rey and then I guess Sabie, even though she's probably just town.

@colonialbob Why is Audrey not in the POE?
Convince me she should be.
That’s not how POE works. Everyone’s in the POE until you take them out. You’ve taken Audrey out. Why?
Luna/Audrey D1 interaction
You're talking about Luna appearing to not know how old Audrey was?
Yeah (and also how she reacted to it)
Given that Audrey has made 7 posts all game, why do you think that Audrey would have revealed her age in wolfchat?

I just think a rng kills Sloonei before anybody else except Rey. That's what I keep coming back to.

Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Day 4]

Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2019 9:12 pm
by Jackofhearts2005
novaselinenever wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:08 pm I'm at a Jack/Leetic/Sabie PoE
:|

Seriously? Why are you clearing Rey and Audrey?

Why are you not clearing Leetic and me?

Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Day 4]

Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2019 9:37 pm
by Jackofhearts2005
I'm changing my POE to Audrey/Rey/Bob.

I went back and the reason I was clearing Bob is because he had this whole thing where he setup Speed/Luna/Rey by having a fake push on Audrey and declared there to be a wolf in that group.
colonialbob wrote: Tue Feb 19, 2019 9:58 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Tue Feb 19, 2019 8:58 pm
colonialbob wrote: Tue Feb 19, 2019 6:59 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Tue Feb 19, 2019 6:58 pm
colonialbob wrote: Tue Feb 19, 2019 6:15 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Tue Feb 19, 2019 6:09 pm
colonialbob wrote: Tue Feb 19, 2019 5:49 pm Well that didn't work.

I don't want to lynch Audrey. I was wondering if somebody would jump on it.

There's a wolf in Luna/speed/reywas prove me wrong :srsnod:
Why those three?
C'mon dog
C’mon what? You barely talk about Speed and Luna. They’re voting for the same player ie nobody. Rey and Speed have similar reads but Luna doesn’t.

I’m struggling to see the connection.
GTH reads my dude
So you’re just doing the gth excercise late?

Do you have anything additional to say about them?
Nope. Those are the three who GTH'd Aubrey as bad.
He also jumps on Luna, which is a good look.
colonialbob wrote: Wed Feb 20, 2019 3:43 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Wed Feb 20, 2019 3:41 pm
colonialbob wrote: Wed Feb 20, 2019 3:39 pm [VOTE: Luna] aubergine
I need to know why. My entire body is exploding in euphoric tingles in anticipation.
"Hey guys this speedchuck lynch feels like a dogpile" which feels like the preamble to "ok I've read over the case and think I'm good with this lynch" and then "oh noes I should have stayed strong definitely there was a mafia pushing on speed"
So he's clear, right?

Not quite.
Spoiler: show
colonialbob wrote: Tue Feb 19, 2019 10:01 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Tue Feb 19, 2019 9:59 pm If the lynch deadline was in 20 seconds, who y'all voting for?
Jack because I prefer him to speedchuck.
colonialbob wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 11:58 am
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 11:53 am It would seem that a reasonably comfortable 5-player POE is not quite attainable yet, so we still have a lot of work to do. The game can easily be lost if that is not resolved. The pace of Day 1 needs to continue through Night 1 and onward.
Yep. I'm finding it hard to reduce below 6 or 7 POE. Hopefully today I'll have the chance to get some thoughts into the thread, I had some posts jump out during a quick reread this morning but didn't have time to put pen to paper, so to speak.

My gut still says Luna being bad is a good look for speedchuck, although not good enough to remove him from the pool.
colonialbob wrote: Fri Feb 22, 2019 1:36 am
leetic wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 11:43 pm speedchuck

Was a wagon that could have easily been taken by scum, yet for some reason it wasn't. Let's investigate further
Spoiler: show
Image
colonialbob wrote: Fri Feb 22, 2019 11:08 am
colonialbob wrote: Fri Feb 22, 2019 11:07 am
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Tue Feb 19, 2019 4:07 pm Image
Bringing this forward for reference.
Nova
Me
reywas
Audrey

Who's the wolf?
colonialbob wrote: Fri Feb 22, 2019 2:37 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Fri Feb 22, 2019 2:17 pm
colonialbob wrote: Fri Feb 22, 2019 2:05 pm Still want somebody to talk to me about Luna/speed compatibility
I’ve outlined it like three times.

Image
Yeah but you're another suspect so
colonialbob wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:23 am Going to be out of pocket during EoD so I'll try to put in some work this morning.

For now [VOTE: reywas] aubergine
colonialbob wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 12:33 pm @nutella
@Jackofhearts2005
@leetic

Pretend speedchuck was removed from the poll. Who are you voting for?
colonialbob wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 12:35 pm @AudreyTheTattletail
@Elohcin
@novaselinenever
@nutella
@sabie12

Where are your heads at? Who are you considering voting for?
Bob never seemed to actually consider voting Speedchuck D2.

In particular, he fought against the idea that Speed and Luna were scum together. In fact, if you look at the Luna case he makes, he's saying Luna is scum because she's reacting to a wagon on townie Speedchuck. Like if by busing Luna, it earns both Bob and Speed cred.

I don't see Leet or Sabie ever killing Sloonei because they'd need to mislynch him to win. Bob, who is already in a great position to mislynch pretty much anybody before being in serious danger, would be far more likely to shoot Sloonei because an awakened Sloonei might make things more difficult for him.

Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Day 4]

Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:10 pm
by novaselinenever
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 9:12 pm
novaselinenever wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:08 pm I'm at a Jack/Leetic/Sabie PoE
:|

Seriously? Why are you clearing Rey and Audrey?

Why are you not clearing Leetic and me?
I just don't see it being Audrey. Feels like she's being suspected more by default that anything she's done. I remember some interactions with Luna D1 or D0 that made them look not really incompatible.

Rey isn't really cleared, but I have you 3 over him and Bob on top of my head (his D2 behavior especially).

I think the last mafia is a deep wolf. I think it'd have been the sensible choice seeing the Mafia's fate during D2, and they went all in. Our interactions D1 are still at the back of my mind, it felt like you were guiding everyone to the luna/speedchuck connection. There was something off about how you saw it, and the lead up to Speedchuck's lynch. It really feels like an elaborated buss.

Leetic's really compatible with Luna, and it's something that I expended on D1 or N1 I think. You should reread his EoD1.

Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Day 4]

Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:11 pm
by novaselinenever
I like your bob stuff though.

Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Day 4]

Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:11 pm
by novaselinenever
Why are you not asking me about not clearing Sabie? :p

Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Day 4]

Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:19 pm
by Jackofhearts2005
I had to switch to mobile so this isn’t going to be as pretty.

Leetic votes Luna and townreads Speed D1. He considers voting for me instead but ultimately stays on Luna, which is a good look.

D2, he reevaluates Speed and comes to the same conclusion I did, that Luna’s reaction to the Speedwagon point to Speed being mafia. He starts giving out townreads, too. It’s not good mafia strategy to bus on D1 and D2 and shrink the POE.
leetic wrote: Wed Feb 20, 2019 8:51 pm tldr:

People who look better because of Luna's flip: Jack, nova, bob, JJJ

People who look worse: speedchuck, Reywas, sabie
He follows up this summary with ISOs of Sabie and Rey and concludes that they are both compatible with Luna and Speed. His iso of Sloonei also puts him as potential partners with Speed. His Speed iso puts him as scummier than Rey.

All in all, for Leet to be scum, he’d have to be bussing super hard and putting in a huge amount of effort and forgoing mislynches (Jack over Luna, possibly Rey over Speed). Plus the Sloonei kill makes no sense for him.

Imo, Leet is never mafia and idk why he’s on anyone’s poe outside of jokes about Rey’s first rainbow list.

Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Day 4]

Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:21 pm
by novaselinenever
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:19 pm I had to switch to mobile so this isn’t going to be as pretty.

Leetic votes Luna and townreads Speed D1. He considers voting for me instead but ultimately stays on Luna, which is a good look.

D2, he reevaluates Speed and comes to the same conclusion I did, that Luna’s reaction to the Speedwagon point to Speed being mafia. He starts giving out townreads, too. It’s not good mafia strategy to bus on D1 and D2 and shrink the POE.
leetic wrote: Wed Feb 20, 2019 8:51 pm tldr:

People who look better because of Luna's flip: Jack, nova, bob, JJJ

People who look worse: speedchuck, Reywas, sabie
He follows up this summary with ISOs of Sabie and Rey and concludes that they are both compatible with Luna and Speed. His iso of Sloonei also puts him as potential partners with Speed. His Speed iso puts him as scummier than Rey.

All in all, for Leet to be scum, he’d have to be bussing super hard and putting in a huge amount of effort and forgoing mislynches (Jack over Luna, possibly Rey over Speed). Plus the Sloonei kill makes no sense for him.

Imo, Leet is never mafia and idk why he’s on anyone’s poe outside of jokes about Rey’s first rainbow list.
He didn't stay on Luna. He voted her, interacted with her over a few posts and then switched to Reywas.

Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Day 4]

Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:26 pm
by Jackofhearts2005
novaselinenever wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:10 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 9:12 pm
novaselinenever wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:08 pm I'm at a Jack/Leetic/Sabie PoE
:|

Seriously? Why are you clearing Rey and Audrey?

Why are you not clearing Leetic and me?
I just don't see it being Audrey. Feels like she's being suspected more by default that anything she's done. I remember some interactions with Luna D1 or D0 that made them look not really incompatible.

Rey isn't really cleared, but I have you 3 over him and Bob on top of my head (his D2 behavior especially).

I think the last mafia is a deep wolf. I think it'd have been the sensible choice seeing the Mafia's fate during D2, and they went all in. Our interactions D1 are still at the back of my mind, it felt like you were guiding everyone to the luna/speedchuck connection. There was something off about how you saw it, and the lead up to Speedchuck's lynch. It really feels like an elaborated buss.

Leetic's really compatible with Luna, and it's something that I expended on D1 or N1 I think. You should reread his EoD1.
Audrey has a 7 post iso. I think there have been more posts about her interaction with Luna than all her posts combined and that’s magnifying it. Go check it and see if you believe it.

You’re absolutely right that Audrey is a default potential wolf. Cause she’s done nothing and her kills would be random and we’ve had a weird kill. I don’t suspect that Audrey is the wolf because she’s suspicious. Audrey is a suspect because I can’t clear her.

I don’t know what to tell you if you think I decided to bus both my teammates on D1. Luna’s flip pointed to Speed being mafia and he was lynched D2 in part because I kept hammering at that idea.

I just reread Leet’s iso containing the words Luna, Lunalee, Speed and Speedchuck. I don’t see any teammate potential there. You’re going to have to be more specific.

Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Day 4]

Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:31 pm
by Jackofhearts2005
novaselinenever wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:21 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:19 pm I had to switch to mobile so this isn’t going to be as pretty.

Leetic votes Luna and townreads Speed D1. He considers voting for me instead but ultimately stays on Luna, which is a good look.

D2, he reevaluates Speed and comes to the same conclusion I did, that Luna’s reaction to the Speedwagon point to Speed being mafia. He starts giving out townreads, too. It’s not good mafia strategy to bus on D1 and D2 and shrink the POE.
leetic wrote: Wed Feb 20, 2019 8:51 pm tldr:

People who look better because of Luna's flip: Jack, nova, bob, JJJ

People who look worse: speedchuck, Reywas, sabie
He follows up this summary with ISOs of Sabie and Rey and concludes that they are both compatible with Luna and Speed. His iso of Sloonei also puts him as potential partners with Speed. His Speed iso puts him as scummier than Rey.

All in all, for Leet to be scum, he’d have to be bussing super hard and putting in a huge amount of effort and forgoing mislynches (Jack over Luna, possibly Rey over Speed). Plus the Sloonei kill makes no sense for him.

Imo, Leet is never mafia and idk why he’s on anyone’s poe outside of jokes about Rey’s first rainbow list.
He didn't stay on Luna. He voted her, interacted with her over a few posts and then switched to Reywas.
Okay so...I can see how isoing a player and searching for the mafia’s names might have some downsides...like not noticing vote switches.

Was Rey in danger of being lynched D1? I felt like it was Speed with me as counterwagon and then Luna case in and it became Jack/Speed/Luna three way tie for just a moment and then it was Luna by at least a 2 vote margin. (This is mostly off memory cause some people don’t call their votes. :mad: )

What I’m getting at is “Was voting Rey basically letting Luna or Speed get lynched without bussing for cred it trying to vote for the most likely mislynch (Jack)? Or was it potentially voting the most likely mislynch (Rey)?

Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Day 4]

Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:35 pm
by colonialbob
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 9:10 pm
colonialbob wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 9:01 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:58 pm
colonialbob wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:00 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 4:37 pm
colonialbob wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 12:42 am
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Wed Feb 27, 2019 10:39 pm RIP Nutella.

7 players. Assuming a kill isn't stopped or mafia doesn't shoot inside the POE, POE needs to be 3. Mine is Audrey, Rey and then I guess Sabie, even though she's probably just town.

@colonialbob Why is Audrey not in the POE?
Convince me she should be.
That’s not how POE works. Everyone’s in the POE until you take them out. You’ve taken Audrey out. Why?
Luna/Audrey D1 interaction
You're talking about Luna appearing to not know how old Audrey was?
Yeah (and also how she reacted to it)
Given that Audrey has made 7 posts all game, why do you think that Audrey would have revealed her age in wolfchat?

I just think a rng kills Sloonei before anybody else except Rey. That's what I keep coming back to.
Read Sloonei during that night and tell me he wasn't morphing into a town leader.

Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Day 4]

Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:36 pm
by Jackofhearts2005
colonialbob wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:35 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 9:10 pm
colonialbob wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 9:01 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:58 pm
colonialbob wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:00 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 4:37 pm
colonialbob wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 12:42 am

Convince me she should be.
That’s not how POE works. Everyone’s in the POE until you take them out. You’ve taken Audrey out. Why?
Luna/Audrey D1 interaction
You're talking about Luna appearing to not know how old Audrey was?
Yeah (and also how she reacted to it)
Given that Audrey has made 7 posts all game, why do you think that Audrey would have revealed her age in wolfchat?

I just think a rng kills Sloonei before anybody else except Rey. That's what I keep coming back to.
Read Sloonei during that night and tell me he wasn't morphing into a town leader.
Sloonei was one of my top suspects til the moment he died.

Seems like you really had an eye on Sloonei getting ready to lead the town though. :ponder:

Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Day 4]

Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:37 pm
by colonialbob
Also it's not that I think she would've revealed her age in wolf chat. Do you think wolf Luna says that to wolf Audrey in thread upon finding out her teammate is 8?

Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Day 4]

Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:38 pm
by colonialbob
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:36 pm
colonialbob wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:35 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 9:10 pm
colonialbob wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 9:01 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:58 pm
colonialbob wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:00 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 4:37 pm

That’s not how POE works. Everyone’s in the POE until you take them out. You’ve taken Audrey out. Why?
Luna/Audrey D1 interaction
You're talking about Luna appearing to not know how old Audrey was?
Yeah (and also how she reacted to it)
Given that Audrey has made 7 posts all game, why do you think that Audrey would have revealed her age in wolfchat?

I just think a rng kills Sloonei before anybody else except Rey. That's what I keep coming back to.
Read Sloonei during that night and tell me he wasn't morphing into a town leader.
Sloonei was one of my top suspects til the moment he died.

Seems like you really had an eye on Sloonei getting ready to lead the town though. :ponder:
Put down the tinfoil dog

Ok I rescind my "no cases about yourself" rule, why should I rule you out?

(Do not say you wouldn't shoot Sloonei, because you already said you won a game on MU with that kind of maneuver so.)

Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Day 4]

Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:39 pm
by Jackofhearts2005
colonialbob wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:37 pm Also it's not that I think she would've revealed her age in wolf chat. Do you think wolf Luna says that to wolf Audrey in thread upon finding out her teammate is 8?
I don’t think it is alignment indicative at all.

Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Day 4]

Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:39 pm
by novaselinenever
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:31 pm
novaselinenever wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:21 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:19 pm I had to switch to mobile so this isn’t going to be as pretty.

Leetic votes Luna and townreads Speed D1. He considers voting for me instead but ultimately stays on Luna, which is a good look.

D2, he reevaluates Speed and comes to the same conclusion I did, that Luna’s reaction to the Speedwagon point to Speed being mafia. He starts giving out townreads, too. It’s not good mafia strategy to bus on D1 and D2 and shrink the POE.
leetic wrote: Wed Feb 20, 2019 8:51 pm tldr:

People who look better because of Luna's flip: Jack, nova, bob, JJJ

People who look worse: speedchuck, Reywas, sabie
He follows up this summary with ISOs of Sabie and Rey and concludes that they are both compatible with Luna and Speed. His iso of Sloonei also puts him as potential partners with Speed. His Speed iso puts him as scummier than Rey.

All in all, for Leet to be scum, he’d have to be bussing super hard and putting in a huge amount of effort and forgoing mislynches (Jack over Luna, possibly Rey over Speed). Plus the Sloonei kill makes no sense for him.

Imo, Leet is never mafia and idk why he’s on anyone’s poe outside of jokes about Rey’s first rainbow list.
He didn't stay on Luna. He voted her, interacted with her over a few posts and then switched to Reywas.
Okay so...I can see how isoing a player and searching for the mafia’s names might have some downsides...like not noticing vote switches.

Was Rey in danger of being lynched D1? I felt like it was Speed with me as counterwagon and then Luna case in and it became Jack/Speed/Luna three way tie for just a moment and then it was Luna by at least a 2 vote margin. (This is mostly off memory cause some people don’t call their votes. :mad: )

What I’m getting at is “Was voting Rey basically letting Luna or Speed get lynched without bussing for cred it trying to vote for the most likely mislynch (Jack)? Or was it potentially voting the most likely mislynch (Rey)?
Rey ended up with 4 votes, 1 behind Luna. He potentially could have been lynched, so I think it was kind of both. I got it more like "Interact with Luna to give off a decent reason why I'm not voting her, then vote Rey to give her a chance to live in case someone changes their mind (1 vote swing) as well as avoiding the conversation of who bussed her if she gets lynched with being the last vote and not having suspected her prior ".

I had trouble seeing the evolution of his thought on Luna with the vote -> small interaction (forced if you ask me) -> unvote.

Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Day 4]

Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:39 pm
by novaselinenever
Oh yeah, the age thing was one of good points in Audrey's favor for me :haha:

Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Day 4]

Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:40 pm
by novaselinenever
I'd think they'd have chatted and introduced themselves a bit. It's also kind of too small of a thing to fake, so that's why I think it was genuine

Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Day 4]

Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:41 pm
by novaselinenever
But yeah outside of that, I like Leetic's effort.

Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Day 4]

Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:41 pm
by novaselinenever
I'm all over the place in my head

Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Day 4]

Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:44 pm
by Jackofhearts2005
colonialbob wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:38 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:36 pm
colonialbob wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:35 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 9:10 pm
colonialbob wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 9:01 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:58 pm
colonialbob wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:00 pm
Luna/Audrey D1 interaction
You're talking about Luna appearing to not know how old Audrey was?
Yeah (and also how she reacted to it)
Given that Audrey has made 7 posts all game, why do you think that Audrey would have revealed her age in wolfchat?

I just think a rng kills Sloonei before anybody else except Rey. That's what I keep coming back to.
Read Sloonei during that night and tell me he wasn't morphing into a town leader.
Sloonei was one of my top suspects til the moment he died.

Seems like you really had an eye on Sloonei getting ready to lead the town though. :ponder:
Put down the tinfoil dog

Ok I rescind my "no cases about yourself" rule, why should I rule you out?

(Do not say you wouldn't shoot Sloonei, because you already said you won a game on MU with that kind of maneuver so.)
Cause I was screaming at you to lynch Speed all of D2 while you ignored me.

You think I had bus my entire team and then make stupid shots?

I only pulled that wifom win off on MU cause I was playing with Realms level players who had never met me before after they got lucky and lynched my partner (who I didn’t vote for) by putting 3 votes in him during rvs and then forgetting to move past rvs. When I’ve pulled the same sort of confusing plays here (Potter), it failed. Townies were confused by my actions but I still got lynched and the teammate I tried to distance from still got caught.

Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Day 4]

Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:48 pm
by Jackofhearts2005
I don’t see how Bob ended the Speedchuck lynch like “clears Jack” and several days later he’s like “Jack in my poe cause any good look for him could just be wifom.” That doesn’t feel like a real thought.

Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Day 4]

Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:49 pm
by Jackofhearts2005
I think I’m avoiding isoing Rey cause he’s like the popular suspect to have. 🙄

Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Day 4]

Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:55 pm
by Jackofhearts2005
This thread has 28 pages. My last MU game is at 300 pages and still running. I should just read the whole damn game.

Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Day 4]

Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2019 11:14 pm
by Jackofhearts2005
Rey

The Luna/Speed/Leetic scumteam in his first rainbow list is less of a good look considering he calls out 8 different wolf reads on D1 (Speed, Luna, Leet, Jay, Jack, Eloh, Sabie, Audrey). He also calls Luna and Speed town in his gth. Zero progression there. Makes the initial rainbow look like distancing.

Rey argues with Jay about Speed a bit. Concedes that Speed could be mafia but also tries to paint a picture of townSpeed and wolfJay. Doesn’t say anything at all about the Luna train. Appears to have been absent for the whole thing.

Day 2, he focuses on me and Sloonei and says he has no reason to suspect Speedchuck, which is not consistent with his eod1.

Votes Speedchuck, saying sorry and he wants to vote Sloonei. Doesn’t actually vote him. I’m not sure why townie Rey does this. Votes were 5 Speed (6 if his vote had gone through) to 2 Rey to 1 each on Leet and Sabie. Why not vote elsewhere if he didn’t suspect Speedchuck at all? This makes the most sense as distancing.

Rey can have my top suspect slot over Bob.

Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Day 4]

Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2019 11:33 pm
by Jackofhearts2005
Sloonei

Sloonei’s death is the most notable night action. I’ve already theorized that Leet and Sabie don’t kill Sloonei if they are the last wolf (nor would I, nor would have Nutella) cause it shrinks the poe and makes the wolf more likely to fall into it and that it was a bad look for Audrey (randkill), Rey (who Sloonei was after for awhile) and Bob (noting Sloonei as a potential town leader and not giving a damn about POEs he’s not in). But what was Sloonei actually saying when he died?

Town points assigned to Leet, Nutella, Jack and Nova. Flat out clears Nova as town in his book.

Rey is sus. More good looks for Nova. A good look for Eloh. Townreads Jack and Leet.

Actually, here’s the summary in his own words.

“Setting that final exchange aside, I'd say reywas and sabie have the most evidence in support of a partnership. nova and eloh have the most working in their favor. nutella, audrey, jack, and leetic also had specific points in their favor. Obviously I ignored most of speedchuck's interactions with me. If someone else wants to look at those, that'd be cool.”

Follows this up with some Luna reading with roughly the same conclusion. His word, again.

“If we're going for consistency between her treatment of teammates, reywas looks worse. She had relatively little to say about speedchuck considering his stature in this game and their relationship outside of it. Similarly, she had practically zilch to say about reywas.
If we think luna mixed it up a bit, then sabie looks worse. I also think speedchuck's treatment of sabie (highly substantiated scum read on Day 1 which was never followed up on) is a meatier piece of evidence than anything here. But if I'm looking only at luna's interactions with these two, I'd say that reywas looks worse than sabie.”

There’s a short exchange where we agree that Sabie is actually town.
Sloonei wrote: Sun Feb 24, 2019 7:04 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Sun Feb 24, 2019 6:23 pm Based on those quotes, I don't think Sabie is scum with Speed and Luna. That reads like buddying/shading.
I’m inclined to agree.

What do you think of reywas?

Rey hits Sloonei a bit and Sloonei is like “That doesn’t address my points. Uuuuuuuuugh.”

Doesn’t talk about Bob at all.



I leave this unmoved. Rey still top suspect. Bob still in second. Nova/Leet/Sabie(/Jack) still don’t shoot Sloonei here. Even if he becomes an unlynchable town leading juggernaut, he is townreading them.

Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Day 4]

Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2019 11:39 pm
by novaselinenever
I'll have to reread when I get a minute. I could vibe with a Bob lynch possibly

Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Day 4]

Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2019 11:40 pm
by novaselinenever
What's your take on why would he kill sloonei?

Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Day 4]

Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2019 11:43 pm
by novaselinenever
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 11:14 pm Rey

The Luna/Speed/Leetic scumteam in his first rainbow list is less of a good look considering he calls out 8 different wolf reads on D1 (Speed, Luna, Leet, Jay, Jack, Eloh, Sabie, Audrey). He also calls Luna and Speed town in his gth. Zero progression there. Makes the initial rainbow look like distancing.

Rey argues with Jay about Speed a bit. Concedes that Speed could be mafia but also tries to paint a picture of townSpeed and wolfJay. Doesn’t say anything at all about the Luna train. Appears to have been absent for the whole thing.

Day 2, he focuses on me and Sloonei and says he has no reason to suspect Speedchuck, which is not consistent with his eod1.

Votes Speedchuck, saying sorry and he wants to vote Sloonei. Doesn’t actually vote him. I’m not sure why townie Rey does this. Votes were 5 Speed (6 if his vote had gone through) to 2 Rey to 1 each on Leet and Sabie. Why not vote elsewhere if he didn’t suspect Speedchuck at all? This makes the most sense as distancing.

Rey can have my top suspect slot over Bob.
I've been running away from that rainbow list of his. Took it as just him messing around, not sure how I feel when it's being read to either give him town points or suspect him. It's like a plot device, mafia style lol.

I'm guessing in case there are some changes of minds, and he's still close to Speed. The further the better. Interesting though, that he didn't actually commit the vote.

Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Day 4]

Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2019 11:54 pm
by Jackofhearts2005
novaselinenever wrote: Thu Feb 28, 2019 11:40 pm What's your take on why would he kill sloonei?
If everyone else townreads Bob even though he knows he’s been defending Speed, he’s threatened by Sloonei going from half assed mislynch bait to woke af townie who townreads all the townies except Rey and gives Bob no credit. It’s only a matter of time before Sloonei finds the bad posts.

Or it’s just Rey killing Sloonei for wanting to lynch him and having just put forth a bunch of posts about how he’s bad.

Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Day 4]

Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2019 11:54 pm
by Jackofhearts2005
*Half bottomed in case Audrey comes back.

Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Day 4]

Posted: Fri Mar 01, 2019 12:00 am
by Jackofhearts2005
I’m gonna put off the Nova and Sabie isos until tomorrow because I need to do laundry and play Persona 4. :p

Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Day 4]

Posted: Fri Mar 01, 2019 5:20 am
by AudreyTheTattletail
ima eight year old for the last time the game would probably not make me mafia if its my first

Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Day 4]

Posted: Fri Mar 01, 2019 5:23 am
by AudreyTheTattletail
[mention]leetic[/mention] has been in the game this entire time so i have pretty much no doubt about him being mafia

Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Day 4]

Posted: Fri Mar 01, 2019 7:38 am
by sabie12
At the moment the case on rey makes the most sense to me. I haven't been around much in the last couple days real life has been too busy for me.

Re: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [Day 4]

Posted: Fri Mar 01, 2019 9:09 am
by Jackofhearts2005
AudreyTheTattletail wrote: Fri Mar 01, 2019 5:20 am ima eight year old for the last time the game would probably not make me mafia if its my first
I actually find this more convincing than the Luna interaction. Epi has randed Simon as scum before but it wasn’t Simon’s first game.