The Syndicate

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Turnip Head wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:TH's point is an interesting one. since MP read Epignosis as mafia (so did i), then the following question must be asked:

did Elo join her mafia mate and spouse in a public crucifixion of MP? is that how baddies behave as a team on many Day 1s over the course of mafia history?

maybe. i don't know that i can recall an example at the moment though.

Honestly it so rarely ever happens. That's why I pointed it out when you had them together on your reads list.

I think Epi would have encouraged Elo to do her own thing, FWIW.

i am feeling a bit doubtful too. so let's examine all of the possibilities (excluding serial killer variables, meh):

BOTH MAFIA:

mafia Epignosis goes ham against MP, and mafia Elo joins the fun. bold maneuver, but not impossible. my instincts tell me a married couple wouldn't find that super entertaining though, and that they'd be more likely to do their own thing individually -- i say as a human being who has never been married ever.

EPI MAFIA, ELO TOWN:

Mafia Epignosis goes ham against MP, and town Elo thinks he's making sound arguments. so she gets involved with the discussion and says her piece. sounds plausible, though i don't see how a townie really buys any of Epi's points in that exchange.

EPI TOWN, ELO MAFIA:

Town Epi was employing an aggressive gambit to generate reads of MP and anyone else discussing the matter. Mafia Elo sees the opportunity to pile on and does so -- thereby linking her husband to her erroneously. sounds plausible, but also elaborate and thus far-fetched. and risky for a mafioso to link herself to someone so abrasive.

BOTH TOWN:

Epi was employing an aggressive gambit to generate reads of MP and anyone else discussing the matter. Town Elo either thinks he's making sound arguments or catches on to his ploy and plays along. this strikes me as the least sensible of the four really, both because Epi's points were never good enough to be believed and i don't know that anyone really dives into such a gambit at the risk of being heavily suspected for it.

given this, it seems decently likely to me that one of the spouses was bad. i dunno about both though.

This is incredibly intriguing.

Now when you say it like this, I believe the following scenarios (in isolation, of course) are from most likely to least likely as follows:
1) Mafia Epi, Civ Elo
2) Mafia Epi, Mafia Elo
3) Town Epi, Town Elo
4) Town Epi, Mafia Elo

I've made a huge mistake.

(I'm not sure I have, I just really wanted to drop an AD ref).

And that's why you never vote early.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Bubbles vote was fishy af, felt like she isn't even trying.

"hey I'm a noob and I dont know how to play so imma drop a vote on someone everyone is suspecting and check out for the phase cya".

A lot of her posts feel like honest inexperience though.

i find myself wondering about your effort level too, DDL. you started the game with a purpose, and even though it brought you some heat you seemed content to post at a torrent pace and stay involved. but over the last couple real-time days, your level of activity has waned directly relative to a decrease in pressure on you.

why do you suppose that is?

I guess I'm just tired? Between having to explain myself to Epi about 10 times (and to other people about 50), spending a few consecutive days thinking about barely anything other than this game, and then going through a lot of effort just to lynch a townie, I think I just burned my fuel. That day 1 was the most active phase in any game I've ever played.

It doesn't help that 90% of the posts in this phase are being made by 2 people and most other players are making themselves hard to read by not posting.

I'm trying to be more moderate this time around. And focusing on people I suspect instead of trying to analyse every sinlge player.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Bubbles vote was fishy af, felt like she isn't even trying.

"hey I'm a noob and I dont know how to play so imma drop a vote on someone everyone is suspecting and check out for the phase cya".

A lot of her posts feel like honest inexperience though.

i find myself wondering about your effort level too, DDL. you started the game with a purpose, and even though it brought you some heat you seemed content to post at a torrent pace and stay involved. but over the last couple real-time days, your level of activity has waned directly relative to a decrease in pressure on you.

why do you suppose that is?

I guess I'm just tired? Between having to explain myself to Epi about 10 times (and to other people about 50), spending a few consecutive days thinking about barely anything other than this game, and then going through a lot of effort just to lynch a townie, I think I just burned my fuel. That day 1 was the most active phase in any game I've ever played.

It doesn't help that 90% of the posts in this phase are being made by 2 people and most other players are making themselves hard to read by not posting.

I'm trying to be more moderate this time around. And focusing on people I suspect instead of trying to analyse every sinlge player.

Bullshit.

Just kidding. Wow, I'm in a certain kind of mood today, aren't I?

Seriously, that's fair enough, but you're dropping on my list ever slowly.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:I guess I'm just tired? Between having to explain myself to Epi about 10 times (and to other people about 50), spending a few consecutive days thinking about barely anything other than this game, and then going through a lot of effort just to lynch a townie, I think I just burned my fuel. That day 1 was the most active phase in any game I've ever played.

It doesn't help that 90% of the posts in this phase are being made by 2 people and most other players are making themselves hard to read by not posting.

I'm trying to be more moderate this time around. And focusing on people I suspect instead of trying to analyse every sinlge player.

at the least you can anticipate an increased rate of badgering from me. usually i end up wrong about one of my Day 1 town reads, so all y'all greens best remain uncomfortable. slate's clean when i get to my next compilation of reads.

i'll ask you for a focused take, DDL. what do you think of Turnip Head?

Before you ask who I'm suspecting, Elo is main my one. Though she made herself somewhat better by at least trying to explain herself. But I'd vote her now if I had to choose.

Bass has gotten a little better in my eyes. His defenses seem legit. I guess I'm back to neutral on him.

Acrosstheater is one that is going back to being scummy. She is basically Tinybubbles without the noob card. Didn't vote, doesn't post, doesn't produce anything, doesn't care. Her most useful post in the game was the one where she said he is useless on day 1.

i am tempted to pull the gun-to-head reads exercise if there are enough people present.

YES. DO IT.

i want at least six or seven participants. who is online and ready to talk RIGHT NOW? this exercise will probably take 10-20 minutes.

I'm here but I don't think we have enough. Unless dead marmots can play.

yeah i think it'll have to wait. not enough test subjects.

I can count as 5 people. I'm posting for at least 5 people, so why not? :P

yeah i know MP. i'm not used to having such stiff competition for most posts.

Poor TinyBubbles, I hope I'm not scaring her away from mafia by posting like a straight-up maniac.

Linki w/ Jay:

I can't keep up.

Even by my standards, I'm posting a lot. It's all because of a twofold desire to have most posts in a game ever and to beat you, Jay. Just sayin'.

Not really, I just love this game, and I'm putting 110% in for the newbies. FOR THE NEWBIES.

Seriously, I'm going back to work on my R List now.

MovingPictures07 wrote:Not really, I just love this game, and I'm putting 110% in for the newbies. FOR THE NEWBIES.

Seriously, I'm going back to work on my R List now.

there you go. swat away those distractions and get busy with the important things in life.

i should really be doing my Day 2 ISOs (yeah everyone, i literally do that every day). mafia homework is such an encumbrance sometimes.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:Not really, I just love this game, and I'm putting 110% in for the newbies. FOR THE NEWBIES.

Seriously, I'm going back to work on my R List now.

there you go. swat away those distractions and get busy with the important things in life.

"How'd you spend your one day off in four years of the PhD program?"

"Posting all day in a mafia game."

"What's a mafia game?"

"Accounting for Mafia: The Fool's Guide to Wasting Your Life"

MovingPictures07 wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:Not really, I just love this game, and I'm putting 110% in for the newbies. FOR THE NEWBIES.

Seriously, I'm going back to work on my R List now.

there you go. swat away those distractions and get busy with the important things in life.

"How'd you spend your one day off in four years of the PhD program?"

"Posting all day in a mafia game."

"What's a mafia game?"

MovingPictures07 wrote:"Accounting for Mafia: Corrupting the Next Generation of Sock-Stuffed Fools"

FTFY

MovingPictures07 wrote:Even by my standards, I'm posting a lot. It's all because of a twofold desire to have most posts in a game ever and to beat you, Jay. Just sayin'.

I'm starting to believe the number of posts in a game can be a big influence on how much individual players post. I'm one of the most active players in my forum but what I do there isn't even compared to how much I posted here in day 1.

That's also the only way I can explain the activity in mafia champions without losing my faith in humanity.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:Even by my standards, I'm posting a lot. It's all because of a twofold desire to have most posts in a game ever and to beat you, Jay. Just sayin'.

I'm starting to believe the number of posts in a game can be a big influence on how much individual players post. I'm one of the most active players in my forum but what I do there isn't even compared to how much I posted here in day 1.

That's also the only way I can explain the activity in mafia champions without losing my faith in humanity.

in the finale when i am dealing with CPHoya and Askthepizzaguy, i might end up with 1,000 posts

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:i'll ask you for a focused take, DDL. what do you think of Turnip Head?

I think he's town. His day 1 vote seemed to me like a sort of gambit. A way to get reactions from someone he was mildly suspicious of. The same thing I was doing, but in a more intense way. Truth be told, nothing says "start talking now" better than a lynch vote.

Now in day 2, he's being pretty contributive. He looks to me like someone who likes to think outside the box, to point out things people are not noticing. He has been trying to point out what he thinks is wrong in Elo's lynch, for example. That looks like a townie behavior to me.

On a side note, I think any attempt of reading Turnip based on meta is futile (not that I know his meta, but most of you probably do and I'm saying that you shouldn't do it). From what I was told, his behavior in Mafia Champions was completely off-meta, both in regards to his town and mafia metas. He wasn't playing in any way he usually does. And here, he has already mentioned once that he's also being off-meta. The point is, whatever is going with the guy's life now, it's keeping him from playing how he usually does.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:Even by my standards, I'm posting a lot. It's all because of a twofold desire to have most posts in a game ever and to beat you, Jay. Just sayin'.

I'm starting to believe the number of posts in a game can be a big influence on how much individual players post. I'm one of the most active players in my forum but what I do there isn't even compared to how much I posted here in day 1.

That's also the only way I can explain the activity in mafia champions without losing my faith in humanity.

in the finale when i am dealing with CPHoya and Askthepizzaguy, i might end up with 1,000 posts

You'll be in the finale?

God have mercy of your soul.

Bonus points if Banks gets invited to game 6 (which is likely), and goes to the finals too.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:i'll ask you for a focused take, DDL. what do you think of Turnip Head?

I think he's town. His day 1 vote seemed to me like a sort of gambit. A way to get reactions from someone he was mildly suspicious of. The same thing I was doing, but in a more intense way. Truth be told, nothing says "start talking now" better than a lynch vote.

Now in day 2, he's being pretty contributive. He looks to me like someone who likes to think outside the box, to point out things people are not noticing. He has been trying to point out what he thinks is wrong in Elo's lynch, for example. That looks like a townie behavior to me.

On a side note, I think any attempt of reading Turnip based on meta is futile (not that I know his meta, but most of you probably do and I'm saying that you shouldn't do it). From what I was told, his behavior in Mafia Champions was completely off-meta, both in regards to his town and mafia metas. He wasn't playing in any way he usually does. And here, he has already mentioned once that he's also being off-meta. The point is, whatever is going with the guy's life now, it's keeping him from playing how he usually does.

i'm reading him quite similarly. i really never saw his Day 1 vote as that suspicious for its timing. the only trouble is that Golden flipped town and some people have questioned the validity of TH's case against him, suggesting some manipulative potential. but i am not inclined to view it that way right now. i agree that if he's off-meta in this game it's wholly intentional, as he's stated himself. and that behavior can be attributed to any alignment.

generally i find myself town reading most of the more active players in the game. and that has me especially wary of the pool of players below the median line in post count. i need to look more thoroughly over the content of fingersplints and Roxy. and that's ignoring the low-volume unreadables like acrosstheaether and TinyBubbles.

it's likely there is a mafioso somewhere among the most active players too, but i am not concerned with tackling that problem until we have some dead-mafia data to analyze which might point a specific direction.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:i'll ask you for a focused take, DDL. what do you think of Turnip Head?

I think he's town. His day 1 vote seemed to me like a sort of gambit. A way to get reactions from someone he was mildly suspicious of. The same thing I was doing, but in a more intense way. Truth be told, nothing says "start talking now" better than a lynch vote.

Now in day 2, he's being pretty contributive. He looks to me like someone who likes to think outside the box, to point out things people are not noticing. He has been trying to point out what he thinks is wrong in Elo's lynch, for example. That looks like a townie behavior to me.

On a side note, I think any attempt of reading Turnip based on meta is futile (not that I know his meta, but most of you probably do and I'm saying that you shouldn't do it). From what I was told, his behavior in Mafia Champions was completely off-meta, both in regards to his town and mafia metas. He wasn't playing in any way he usually does. And here, he has already mentioned once that he's also being off-meta. The point is, whatever is going with the guy's life now, it's keeping him from playing how he usually does.

i'm reading him quite similarly. i really never saw his Day 1 vote as that suspicious for its timing. the only trouble is that Golden flipped town and some people have questioned the validity of TH's case against him, suggesting some manipulative potential. but i am not inclined to view it that way right now. i agree that if he's off-meta in this game it's wholly intentional, as he's stated himself. and that behavior can be attributed to any alignment.

I don't think it's intentional. He's just incredibly busy irl. I've seen him say that multiple times in mafia champs.

i really hope there's a decent influx of activity in this game tonight before i go to sleep. i have a decent method in mind to re-energize it and get a new discussion rolling, but i need a good number of people here to react in real-time.

if any players happen by the thread any time soon, please let me know. even if you don't have anything to say at that moment.

I'll be online for the next 3 hours or so. Looking at the thread every once in a while.

Turnip Head started a new job right after Death Note ended, so that's surely some of the reasoning for his new meta since then, I would believe.

And I'll definitely be here off and on.

I also hope to see more activity since I won't really be around tomorrow, and then my new class starts next week.

I think part of the reason for some players' lower activity might be because they're playing multiple games (Biblical, The Flash, and games on other sites), but I'm not entirely sure.

looking at Roxy's 10 posts for anything intriguing...

NOTE: there are few points in this post where i pose a question for Roxy. a neutral observer might think they know the answer she'll provide, and if so i ask that you DO NOT say it. at least not until after she has responded. that has happened a couple times now -- it's ideal to allow a person to answer questions directed at them before sharing your own perspective. please don't give them answers before they even have to think about it. thanks.

Roxy wrote:

Golden wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Golden wrote:My thoughts so far - a few newbies (DDL, JJJ, sanmateo, sloonei) are running straight into a drive by lynch of one of them. Not that I support that, I just feel like it's what you risk by generating so much discussion here on day one.

if our conduct to this point has been that unusual by Syndicate standards, i would urge caution in those who'd perceive it negatively by default. "generating so much discussion on Day 1" is honestly exactly how i'd describe the most productive town approach (indeed, i truly struggle to imagine it being perceived as inherently suspicious). if it's abnormal here, very well. i look forward to seeing the reception we get from the other regulars.

I agree that discussion is the most productive approach. But I didn't mean people would find it inherently suspicious, and don't want to discourage it from occurring. Rather, just that drive by votes can happen here (especially on day one), and visible people are easier targets to manufacture a case on. Right now, I think you guys are already in a place where it would be very easy for others to come in and make the day one conversation only about the four of you, and guarantee by doing that that one of you would be lynched.

I just wanted to get in and discourage that from occurring before it did. If others come in and begin to form opinions about the four of you, perhaps it will begin to help us all form opinions about a wider range of people.

I agree and I will not vote for a new player on Day 1.
I do not see the harm in discussing them though obv.

this might be an interesting statement. Golden's prediction of a drive-by lynch proved eerily correct -- and he ended up the victim of that himself. so Roxy wasn't wrong to agree with the assertion. but her stated refusal to vote for a new player on Day 1 is still striking. in so doing she immediately eliminated 6 players from candidacy, 4 of whom were highly active in the game and providing plenty of content to potentially be viewed with suspicion. so i ask you Roxy: why not vote for one of us?

Roxy wrote:High posters make it harder to find their true thoughts in walls-o-texts epsecially if they just pull quotes and slap a couple of sentences after each to make it seem like they are trying. Making a reread far less likely to happen by some players. Low posters have nothing to hide behind in their few posts and usually respond when directly questioned. So feel free to question any player and guage them on their responses and not the quanity of their posts. Quality > Quanity any day imo.

this may just amount to philosophical/cultural differences, but when i think someone makes a point that is fundamentally wrong it could be viewed with suspicion. this blanket criticism of high-volume posting is a means of discouraging an active game thread, which is beneficial to anti-town players in essentially any possible Mafia setup regardless of rules or roles. this is made especially true when she endorses low-volume posters instead. i agree with her that pure quality beats pure quantity, but i would assert that the best case is always quality AND quantity.

Roxy wrote:

Turnip Head wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I think it's pretty dangerous that people are taking the notion that one of the 5 players to kickstart the game MUST be scum as a foregone conclusion. That encourages a narrower focus of suspicion not only in Day 1, but in all ensuing days until the alleged scum is identified.

There's more to Mafia than mere probability.

I agree.

Consequentially, I'm voting for Golden. I think he's bad news this game.

This vote vote twitched my nose badly - its still twitching :o
This is your second in game post and the first on topic post. You have given no. reason or clarity for your vote - classic drive by - why?

off the top of my head, the only player i can recall Roxy expressing suspicion of in any significant way was Turnip Head. here's the start of that. we'll see if my memory serves me poorly as i continue.

Roxy wrote:

Turnip Head wrote:I guess the difference is I'm being obviously un-TH like and Golden feels like he's trying to hide it.

I can elaborate when I get home tonight but if you're interested in looking into it just read his filter.

I for one cannot wait for this elaboration.
I feel the opposite about Golden.

Roxy's suspicion of TH is at least in part driven by her very different read on Golden. i think this is a fair reason to be suspicious of TH, particularly given the abruptness of his vote. i wasn't that suspicious myself, but i don't struggle to imagine a townie genuinely feeling differently.

Roxy wrote:I do find it very odd that you did not single a new player out, make a case and vote. Its been your norm for so long!
Is this a new strategy you are trying with this game?

this bit was directed at MP. it bears the appearance of something at least mildly accusatory in implication, but it isn't at all accusatory in language. so that's something Roxy could talk about. what was your perspective of MP when you made this post, and how do you feel about him now?

Roxy wrote:I am torn betwixt TH and Metalspammer.

I have not previously spoken about the Spamming Newt so I will be laying a vote on TH. I did not like his vote or reasoning he later expressed.

I have zero time til. I am home

Roxy's vote for TH came at a time when i think it was quite apparent that he had no chance of being lynched (53 minutes prior to the deadline). so on that front, it could be called an inconsequential and evasive vote. Roxy did not speak much at all about the larger bandwagons of Day 1 (Golden and Bass).

Roxy wrote:Bye Golden this site hates people who return after long absences - Idk why.

I knew he was civ and am so surprised MP did not immediately feel the same.
I also wish others. who know him better would have spoke out more.

this is probably the most interesting snippet from Roxy's post history so far for me. it's true that she had expressed a positive read of Golden earlier in the phase in response to TH's vote. but beyond that she didn't seem to make any strong effort at all to prevent his lynch. in this post she laments that MP and other Syndicate regulars didn't speak out for him more, and that "she knew he was a civ". i would assert that if she felt that way, nobody in the game was better suited to save his butt than she was. so why didn't you speak out for him more, Roxy?

you were apparently present in the thread at least once during the final stretch (in the post i previously highlighted at 53 minutes 'til the deadline). it'd seem you had an opportunity then to stand up for him and try to change people's minds.

Roxy wrote:TH - your Golden vote and subsequent reasoning was so shady. When I read your elaboration fr your vote it read like it was something you came up with bc you needed something to explain your vote. I knew that new players would listen you and MP but I thought they would be able to see through that charade of a vote.

this is face value mafioso to me. Roxy doesn't make this negative assessment of TH's vote until after the lynch has been finalized and the town flip has been revealed. she asserts in this very comment that she felt that way at the time TH posted it, before the lynch finalized, and even that she thought other players would "see through the charade". but again, she made very little concerted effort herself, if any at all, to do anything about it when it mattered. she made this accusation retrospectively when it no longer made any difference because the damage was done. it reads to me like this, in so many words:

"you guys made a huge mistake. i can't believe you guys made that huge mistake. i wouldn't have made that huge mistake. i thought you guys would realize it'd be a huge mistake."

and that is not helpful.

Roxy wrote:Turnips - Why dear vegee are you voting so early with no reasoning again? You were so wrong about Golden and now you try and do the same with Bubbles. I hope no one will follow this silliness again since the results proved disastrous last lynch. You are my biggest suspicion right now based solely on the way you are voting and your reasoning against Golden was unfounded.
Who are your top 3 suspects and why? What do you think about MM and Epi dying? Why slap an unchangeable vote down with over 24 hours yet to go? Why not say your suspicion and give Bubbles a chance to respond?

and this is a strangely predictive comment. it looks to me like Roxy already knows that a potential lynch of TinyBubbles would end in a town flip, and is throwing shade over TH now instead of then.

"i hope no one will follow this silliness again"

what if he's right? and he didn't even vote btw. his lie proved effective at least in generating responses from players like this one.

that is so much more analysis than i thought i'd be able to generate from a player with 10 posts. how about them apples. also i emerge from that workload finding Roxy a lot more suspicious than i did before.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:G-Man 38

if G-Man is legit, then mad props to him for trying this hard. seriously.

Wow, that's illuminating, Jay. Glad I've been still working on my Rainbow List since I agree that Roxy looks worse after that ISO. Not ready to crucify her, but you made some good points.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:G-Man 38

if G-Man is legit, then mad props to him for trying this hard. seriously.

^^^^^^^^^

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Imo we should estabilish a G-Man thereshold.

If you are posting less than G-Man, then your activity is not acceptable.

(just kidding, I know real life happens)

I think it's harder to post as we have. While Gman has to find pictures; A lot are repeat. If he is bad he doesn't have to really push for lynches, and he isn't under much scrutiny.

Splints, top suspect. Go. What are you thinking?

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:G-Man 38

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Imo we should estabilish a G-Man thereshold.

If you are posting less than G-Man, then your activity is not acceptable.

(just kidding, I know real life happens)

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:G-Man 38

if G-Man is legit, then mad props to him for trying this hard. seriously.

MovingPictures07 wrote:Splints, top suspect. Go. What are you thinking?

Undecided who is my top. I'd like a couple of people to respond to some of those things first. The same people are talking

Well, I'm trying. :P

Jay, I want to play the game now.