Re: Welcome to Night Vale Mafia [NIGHT 3]
Posted: Sun Jul 23, 2017 4:12 pm
Murder, Mayhem, and Mafia
https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/
Why ask Wilgy specifically?TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 4:39 pm I'm an idiot.
Wilgy, do you notice anything weird about Elo's flip?
Yes or no works just fine.
That's a complicated question, and not entirely a known answer. The answer itself is also kind of complicated. But, as a really short answer, Kevin might be Cecil's double from a different reality.TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 4:46 pm Someone who has listened to more of the podcast, what is Kevin's relationship with Cecil?
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 4:39 pm I'm an idiot.
Wilgy, do you notice anything weird about Elo's flip?
Yes or no works just fine.
Golden wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 5:00 pm I do like that Tony has this theory. I know nothing about Night Vale, but can see their pictures are similar.
Here's what I take from this:
1) Tony had deliberate control over the target
2) Tony believed Elo to be StrexCorp
3) Tony has been trying to figure out why he is wrong, and has come up with a possiblity.
Now to figure out if this is a good look or a bad look for Tony, to have so much potential information and power.
1) To a certain degree.Golden wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 5:00 pm I do like that Tony has this theory. I know nothing about Night Vale, but can see their pictures are similar.
Here's what I take from this:
1) Tony had deliberate control over the target
2) Tony believed Elo to be StrexCorp
3) Tony has been trying to figure out why he is wrong, and has come up with a possiblity.
Now to figure out if this is a good look or a bad look for Tony, to have so much potential information and power.
nijuukyugou wrote:Interns, today no intern may place a 4th vote on any player. Any votes placed 4th will not count.
Vote modifiers will still be applied.
nijuukyugou wrote:Cecil Palmer
The voice of Night Vale at Night Vale Community Radio. Cecil broadcasts a report through the host each night to be displayed in the thread.
nijuukyugou wrote: Kevin
Kevin is the host of Desert Bluffs Community Radio
nijuukyugou wrote:Interns, today no intern may place a 4th vote on any player. Any votes placed 4th will not count.
Vote modifiers will still be applied.
nijuukyugou wrote:Cecil Palmer
The voice of Night Vale at Night Vale Community Radio. Cecil broadcasts a report through the host each night to be displayed in the thread.
It is very insane what O got away with! Surveillance and unmasking! Words you never used to hear but now are heard more and more-- very often! Sad.nijuukyugou wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 5:13 pm The Night Vale City Council would like to remind you that you have about four hours to send in your PMs. Alternatively, you may whisper your night action into your phone or computer's speaker, as they are all bugged.
Trying to understand your full theory. Can you spell it out entirely?TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 5:19 pm1) To a certain degree.Golden wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 5:00 pm I do like that Tony has this theory. I know nothing about Night Vale, but can see their pictures are similar.
Here's what I take from this:
1) Tony had deliberate control over the target
2) Tony believed Elo to be StrexCorp
3) Tony has been trying to figure out why he is wrong, and has come up with a possiblity.
Now to figure out if this is a good look or a bad look for Tony, to have so much potential information and power.
2) Believed him to be bad and believed that someone else was Cecil. See Cecil's radio notes Night 1. Kevin popped out as the immediate suspect for replacement when I noticed the pictures and occupation.
3) Yep.
Oops.LoRab wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 6:41 pmTrying to understand your full theory. Can you spell it out entirely?TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 5:19 pm1) To a certain degree.Golden wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 5:00 pm I do like that Tony has this theory. I know nothing about Night Vale, but can see their pictures are similar.
Here's what I take from this:
1) Tony had deliberate control over the target
2) Tony believed Elo to be StrexCorp
3) Tony has been trying to figure out why he is wrong, and has come up with a possiblity.
Now to figure out if this is a good look or a bad look for Tony, to have so much potential information and power.
2) Believed him to be bad and believed that someone else was Cecil. See Cecil's radio notes Night 1. Kevin popped out as the immediate suspect for replacement when I noticed the pictures and occupation.
3) Yep.
I take it you think that the messages from night 1 and night 2 were written by different people? What makes you think that? Do you think Cecil only gets his power sometimes? Or do you think that LA was Cecil and Kevin replaced the messages once Cecil was dead? What benefit would there be to the team thinking that fourth votes didn't count--why do you think this?
What do you mean about the pictures?
Did you think that Wilgy was Cecil? If so, why?
Also, Elo is a she.
Tony asked for this citation and then promptly ignored it.Dom wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 2:25 pmYou don't actually show I'm not SMaf here. You defend that you are not.TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jul 22, 2017 3:00 pmI've already explained the vote, but I'll walk you through it again from a different side. If you still want me to explain the actual vote again I will.Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Jul 22, 2017 1:21 pm Tony, walk me through your last second vote on INH, again. Convince me that wasn't an attempt to save LC.
Continuing your logic, let's assume I'm SMaf with Dom. Dom voted after me, so if he had voted for INH than INH would have five votes on him and would almost certainly be lynched. But this didn't happen. So if the plan was instead bus LC, I could had voted for LC in a vote that looks good since I've been attacking LC since day 1.
I don't see a reality where our votes pan out that way and we are w/w.
So Dom isn't SMaf, at least with me. That leaves you with one theory: SMaf was not trying to save LC. Since I'd have no reason besides being SMaf to try to save LC and if I was SMaf I was not trying to save LC, I was not trying to save LC. QED
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 7:22 pm INTERLOPER!
Also, Hi Quin, I don't think I've ever played a game with you. My name is TSP. Nice to meet you. I'm likely dead soon.
Oops.LoRab wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 6:41 pmTrying to understand your full theory. Can you spell it out entirely?TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 5:19 pm1) To a certain degree.Golden wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 5:00 pm I do like that Tony has this theory. I know nothing about Night Vale, but can see their pictures are similar.
Here's what I take from this:
1) Tony had deliberate control over the target
2) Tony believed Elo to be StrexCorp
3) Tony has been trying to figure out why he is wrong, and has come up with a possiblity.
Now to figure out if this is a good look or a bad look for Tony, to have so much potential information and power.
2) Believed him to be bad and believed that someone else was Cecil. See Cecil's radio notes Night 1. Kevin popped out as the immediate suspect for replacement when I noticed the pictures and occupation.
3) Yep.
I take it you think that the messages from night 1 and night 2 were written by different people? What makes you think that? Do you think Cecil only gets his power sometimes? Or do you think that LA was Cecil and Kevin replaced the messages once Cecil was dead? What benefit would there be to the team thinking that fourth votes didn't count--why do you think this?
What do you mean about the pictures?
Did you think that Wilgy was Cecil? If so, why?
Also, Elo is a she.
I don't think that the night one and night two messages were written by different people, but I can't say for certain because I haven't thought about it. I don't know if Kevin performed any Cecil duties ever.
Other questions will be answered below.
Full theory: In the broadcasting message N1 Cecil said something that screamed Wilgy to me. I don't remember what it is, but I was 80% at this point. Call it gut. There's also a later reason I can't really talk about because rules but it made me 99.9% (Wilgy might know what this is). So flash forward to Elo's flip. I'm confident she's Maf purely on reads. She flips Cecil. I had in my notes Wilgy as Cecil. I was confused and assumed I had misread something and someone. So I chalked it up to that and went along with my night. Before thinking about it and realizing that I was in fact still certain that Wilgy was Cecil. So I began combing for explanations why this might happen and noticed that Kevin and Cecil shared a job description and bushy black eyebrows.
I've come up with one other explanation, but it would require some really weird mechanics.
nijuukyugou wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2017 10:11 pm Listeners, it appears I have found some old tapes hidden under the cabinets in the break room. I've asked Station Management if broadcasting the tapes over the air is allowed, and was met with purple flames and a note slipped under their door that simply read, "Yes." So, here goes:
*Whispers* Listeners?? Can you hear me? This is Cecil, whomever is currently reporting the news and the events of the intern relay is not me. I don't know who they are, or what their intentions are but it seems that I was somehow entered in the intern relay.
I'm currently using a mobile station to broadcast to you, or at least I hope I'm broadcasting to you.
I do not think it is currently safe for me to leave the relay and return to the radio station, especially with the current mood of station management. Besides, I thought I had seen Carlos nearby with his beautiful hair and beings who are definitely not angels. Maybe if I report while participating in the relay, I can bump into beautiful Carlos.
It grieves me to think that intern Made wasn't actually supposed to be sacrificed to station management. Even if Made turned out to be Steve Carlsberg, we should be sure to only sacrifice the interns who aren't actually interns... or at least the unfriendly interns. Steve Carlsberg may not have been the best guy, but I don't think he was the one who needed to be sacrificed today.
Listeners... What is this? In front of me, there is... There is a package and... it seems to be from the city council, and...
Oh no...
There's a birds beak, a rusty screw and 3 nails. The only explanation for this is that there has been a mischedule and the intern relay may be interrupted by street cleaners.
Listeners, I must go. I will continue to investigate what is happening and will hopefully return to you as soon as I can. To all interns in the relay keep an eye out for wild street cleaners, and review who chose who to be sacrificed and their reasons why. I'm looking at you intern Epignosis, you know what you did, yes you do.
Listeners, I apologize for the ten minutes of static and sizzling you just heard - something seems to be wrong with our tape player. I'll keep working on it and get back to you if anything develops.
What is his implied role? I'm having trouble following.LoRab wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 7:38 pm And you're implying that you got a message that told you that Wilgy is Cecil. Since your implied role doesn't have that ability. And Cecil doesn't have that ability, not sure what you're claiming. But that's now 2 claims that you think might be something but you can't say anything as to why. Which doesn't inspire confidence. That said, I believe that you believe that you figured something. So, please share more.
I'm looking into that atm. I also have some stuff to say about the voting mechanic change in general.speedchuck wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 7:57 pmTSP just survived a lynch somehow, and a townie got flipped instead. That's the theory mess that's being talked about.
I don't think I'm who you think I am. I think it was the calling out of Epi that caught my eye, but he voted for Dom, so I'm not sure what it is. The other part you may have to trust me for. I could work out a tenuous bond on it with Wilgy, but he isn't showing up.LoRab wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 7:38 pm But the mechanics that Cecil, a civ, has no consistent night power, is also weird mechanics.
How many games have you played with Elo that you know her game well enough to be that confident that she's bad?
And you're implying that you got a message that told you that Wilgy is Cecil. Since your implied role doesn't have that ability. And Cecil doesn't have that ability, not sure what you're claiming. But that's now 2 claims that you think might be something but you can't say anything as to why. Which doesn't inspire confidence. That said, I believe that you believe that you figured something. So, please share more.
What did Cecil say night 1 that screamed Wilgy to you? I know you say you don't remember, but if you reread the message, might you? Here it is:
nijuukyugou wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2017 10:11 pm Listeners, it appears I have found some old tapes hidden under the cabinets in the break room. I've asked Station Management if broadcasting the tapes over the air is allowed, and was met with purple flames and a note slipped under their door that simply read, "Yes." So, here goes:
*Whispers* Listeners?? Can you hear me? This is Cecil, whomever is currently reporting the news and the events of the intern relay is not me. I don't know who they are, or what their intentions are but it seems that I was somehow entered in the intern relay.
I'm currently using a mobile station to broadcast to you, or at least I hope I'm broadcasting to you.
I do not think it is currently safe for me to leave the relay and return to the radio station, especially with the current mood of station management. Besides, I thought I had seen Carlos nearby with his beautiful hair and beings who are definitely not angels. Maybe if I report while participating in the relay, I can bump into beautiful Carlos.
It grieves me to think that intern Made wasn't actually supposed to be sacrificed to station management. Even if Made turned out to be Steve Carlsberg, we should be sure to only sacrifice the interns who aren't actually interns... or at least the unfriendly interns. Steve Carlsberg may not have been the best guy, but I don't think he was the one who needed to be sacrificed today.
Listeners... What is this? In front of me, there is... There is a package and... it seems to be from the city council, and...
Oh no...
There's a birds beak, a rusty screw and 3 nails. The only explanation for this is that there has been a mischedule and the intern relay may be interrupted by street cleaners.
Listeners, I must go. I will continue to investigate what is happening and will hopefully return to you as soon as I can. To all interns in the relay keep an eye out for wild street cleaners, and review who chose who to be sacrificed and their reasons why. I'm looking at you intern Epignosis, you know what you did, yes you do.
Listeners, I apologize for the ten minutes of static and sizzling you just heard - something seems to be wrong with our tape player. I'll keep working on it and get back to you if anything develops.
Since no one else is commenting on this can someone explain to me how I'm wrong?Dom wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 7:29 pmTony asked for this citation and then promptly ignored it.Dom wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 2:25 pmYou don't actually show I'm not SMaf here. You defend that you are not.TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jul 22, 2017 3:00 pmI've already explained the vote, but I'll walk you through it again from a different side. If you still want me to explain the actual vote again I will.Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Jul 22, 2017 1:21 pm Tony, walk me through your last second vote on INH, again. Convince me that wasn't an attempt to save LC.
Continuing your logic, let's assume I'm SMaf with Dom. Dom voted after me, so if he had voted for INH than INH would have five votes on him and would almost certainly be lynched. But this didn't happen. So if the plan was instead bus LC, I could had voted for LC in a vote that looks good since I've been attacking LC since day 1.
I don't see a reality where our votes pan out that way and we are w/w.
So Dom isn't SMaf, at least with me. That leaves you with one theory: SMaf was not trying to save LC. Since I'd have no reason besides being SMaf to try to save LC and if I was SMaf I was not trying to save LC, I was not trying to save LC. QED
I was figuring Dana. I can't figure out what other role would be able to switch a lynch. I'm also including what powers would make sense of civ roles with secrets. Occam's Razor tells me not to trust him, but he seems so earnest.speedchuck wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 7:55 pm WELCOME INTERLOPER QUIN
What is his implied role? I'm having trouble following.LoRab wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 7:38 pm And you're implying that you got a message that told you that Wilgy is Cecil. Since your implied role doesn't have that ability. And Cecil doesn't have that ability, not sure what you're claiming. But that's now 2 claims that you think might be something but you can't say anything as to why. Which doesn't inspire confidence. That said, I believe that you believe that you figured something. So, please share more.
For the record, there are two roles at least that interact with Cecil at night. TSP can't be those, or he's be dead. Then even other roles might affect Cecil by chance targeting, which is then something that might affect the broadcast. So... not impossible.
Curious about Wilgy's response.
Playing without role claims is weird.
Could still be politician and earnest about Strex.LoRab wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 8:31 pmI was figuring Dana. I can't figure out what other role would be able to switch a lynch. I'm also including what powers would make sense of civ roles with secrets. Occam's Razor tells me not to trust him, but he seems so earnest.speedchuck wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 7:55 pm WELCOME INTERLOPER QUIN
What is his implied role? I'm having trouble following.LoRab wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 7:38 pm And you're implying that you got a message that told you that Wilgy is Cecil. Since your implied role doesn't have that ability. And Cecil doesn't have that ability, not sure what you're claiming. But that's now 2 claims that you think might be something but you can't say anything as to why. Which doesn't inspire confidence. That said, I believe that you believe that you figured something. So, please share more.
For the record, there are two roles at least that interact with Cecil at night. TSP can't be those, or he's be dead. Then even other roles might affect Cecil by chance targeting, which is then something that might affect the broadcast. So... not impossible.
Curious about Wilgy's response.
Playing without role claims is weird.
Good theory, but 1: from what we saw of JOH in the second day that isn't how the forced vote works and 2: secrets.Quin wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 8:36 pm My summary on this is basically:
- Look for Tamika in Eloh's suspects, as she was possibly role blocked
- In a situation where Eloh died as the result of a tie, it means that Marcus is one of sprityo and INH, and the Glow Cloud forced someone's vote away from TSP onto Eloh. This could mean that TSP is a teammate of the Glow Cloud.
Does my theory still work given the statement about vote modifiers?nijuukyugou wrote: ↑Fri Jul 21, 2017 10:02 pm Listeners, here is the next tape in the set I found. Hopefully, this one works:
Interns, today no intern may place a 4th vote on any player. Any votes placed 4th will not count.
Vote modifiers will still be applied.
This community event and announcement has been brought to you by Subway.
"You can run from what you eat, you can't run from what's eating you."
Subway. Eat Fresh.
Hmmm, shrieking and sizzles. I'll keep trying to fix this.
I'll look into the thing with JOH. And I'm keeping secrets into account, this is just one possibility.TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 8:42 pmGood theory, but 1: from what we saw of JOH in the second day that isn't how the forced vote works and 2: secrets.Quin wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 8:36 pm My summary on this is basically:
- Look for Tamika in Eloh's suspects, as she was possibly role blocked
- In a situation where Eloh died as the result of a tie, it means that Marcus is one of sprityo and INH, and the Glow Cloud forced someone's vote away from TSP onto Eloh. This could mean that TSP is a teammate of the Glow Cloud.
Let's keep that to ourselves...Quin wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 8:36 pm My summary on this is basically:
- Look for Tamika in Eloh's suspects, as she was possibly role blocked
- In a situation where Eloh died as the result of a tie, it means that Marcus is one of sprityo and INH, and the Glow Cloud forced someone's vote away from TSP onto Eloh. This could mean that TSP is a teammate of the Glow Cloud.
I don't know anything. I just went in with a different concept of forced voting.Dom wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 8:45 pmLet's keep that to ourselves...Quin wrote: ↑Sun Jul 23, 2017 8:36 pm My summary on this is basically:
- Look for Tamika in Eloh's suspects, as she was possibly role blocked
- In a situation where Eloh died as the result of a tie, it means that Marcus is one of sprityo and INH, and the Glow Cloud forced someone's vote away from TSP onto Eloh. This could mean that TSP is a teammate of the Glow Cloud.
You also don't seem to understand the force vote unless you know something I don't.