The Polka Heist [GAME OVER]

[TonyStarkPrime]

Vote: Epi

Epi was integral to the Dom lynch and at least voted for Nova. The “Epi isn’t doing anything” narrative misses that Epi has had just as much direction as almost anyone else.

[TonyStarkPrime]

What does scum do if Epi and Sloonei aren’t scum?

[Long Con]

[VOTE: Long con] aubergine

Epi being mafia would help to explain why so many of my reads have felt unsatisfying.

If you flip scum he's lynching himself anyway so down you go buddy

What do you mean?

What’s my alignment?

I think you're town. Did you not like my question to Macdougall?

Just wanted to ask. Why am I town?

I believe I have you to thank for me not getting lynched day one. If you were bad, you would have no reason at all to switch the vote from me to a baddie.

[Sloonei]

[VOTE: Long con] aubergine

Epi being mafia would help to explain why so many of my reads have felt unsatisfying.

If you flip scum he's lynching himself anyway so down you go buddy

What do you mean?

What’s my alignment?

I think you're town. Did you not like my question to Macdougall?

Just wanted to ask. Why am I town?

I believe I have you to thank for me not getting lynched day one. If you were bad, you would have no reason at all to switch the vote from me to a baddie.

You really don’t. That argument stemmed from paranoia about me.

[Sloonei]

What does scum do if Epi and Sloonei aren’t scum?

Let us fight, probably

[TonyStarkPrime]

What does scum do if Epi and Sloonei aren’t scum?

Let us fight, probably

Do they sit back?

Is that why you asked LC what he thought of you?

[Sloonei]

What does scum do if Epi and Sloonei aren’t scum?

Let us fight, probably

Do they sit back?

Is that why you asked LC what he thought of you?

I want everyone to tell me my alignment today.

[Sloonei]

[VOTE: Michelle] aubergine
what's my alignment?

[Sloonei]

[mention]DrWilgy[/mention] [mention]Dragon D. Luffy[/mention] [mention]Michelle[/mention] [mention]sig[/mention]

Am I town or mafia?

[MacDougall]

Sloonei flaily

[Long Con]

@DrWilgy @Dragon D. Luffy @Michelle @sig

Am I town or mafia?

Describe your new tactic, and how it helps you win.

[Sloonei]

@DrWilgy @Dragon D. Luffy @Michelle @sig

Am I town or mafia?

Describe your new tactic, and how it helps you win.

I believe there’s a chance I was left alive so that I could be mislynched. I think it’s possible/probable that they’d be banking on a civilian or two to push the case forward. I want to get everyone’s opinion.

[Sloonei]

Sloonei flaily

If I had made these kills, I would be steering directly into my own lynch. Why would I start flailing now? Do you ever actually try to read me?

[Long Con]

Sloonei flaily

If I had made these kills, I would be steering directly into my own lynch. Why would I start flailing now? Do you ever actually try to read me?

Would it be the same situation for any of the other three Ninja Turtles, if they were alive instead of you?

@DrWilgy @Dragon D. Luffy @Michelle @sig

Am I town or mafia?

Describe your new tactic, and how it helps you win.

I believe there’s a chance I was left alive so that I could be mislynched. I think it’s possible/probable that they’d be banking on a civilian or two to push the case forward. I want to get everyone’s opinion.

Epi pushed the case forward. You voted for him last night. Where does that leave you in regards to his alignment?

[Sloonei]

Sloonei flaily

If I had made these kills, I would be steering directly into my own lynch. Why would I start flailing now? Do you ever actually try to read me?

Would it be the same situation for any of the other three Ninja Turtles, if they were alive instead of you?

Probably, but I think I'm a bit more likely to be scrutinized than the others simply because I'm me. I've talked about this.

@DrWilgy @Dragon D. Luffy @Michelle @sig

Am I town or mafia?

Describe your new tactic, and how it helps you win.

I believe there’s a chance I was left alive so that I could be mislynched. I think it’s possible/probable that they’d be banking on a civilian or two to push the case forward. I want to get everyone’s opinion.

Epi pushed the case forward. You voted for him last night. Where does that leave you in regards to his alignment?

It leaves me guessing. I am guessing on everybody. Hence the questions. What do you think?

[Sloonei]

[VOTE: DDL] aubergine again

[Sloonei]

Never mind that lynching inactives is never entirely bad and the fact we are winning the game means we have some spare days to test things like that.

DDL, on Day 2 after one successful lynch.

[Sloonei]

Pausing at page 11. I agree on the surface Sloonei, Dyslexicon, Quin, and timmer look like genuine civilians.

Why did Epignosis make this post?

[TonyStarkPrime]

@DrWilgy @Dragon D. Luffy @Michelle @sig

Am I town or mafia?

Describe your new tactic, and how it helps you win.

I believe there’s a chance I was left alive so that I could be mislynched. I think it’s possible/probable that they’d be banking on a civilian or two to push the case forward. I want to get everyone’s opinion.

So if everyone commits to calling you town because you make them then you won’t be lynched, is what you’re banking on.

[Sloonei]

@DrWilgy @Dragon D. Luffy @Michelle @sig

Am I town or mafia?

Describe your new tactic, and how it helps you win.

I believe there’s a chance I was left alive so that I could be mislynched. I think it’s possible/probable that they’d be banking on a civilian or two to push the case forward. I want to get everyone’s opinion.

So if everyone commits to calling you town because you make them then you won’t be lynched, is what you’re banking on.

Kinda, yeah. Or if they don't we can suss out who's for real and who's not.

[Sloonei]

Neat, Sloonei noticed the same thing I did about Timmer.

On Dom: I'm very bad at reading him. Idk if I've ever seen him supa town and maybe this causes me to default to him being bad.

On DDL: There's a theory in my head that a baddie DDL became discouraged following the creature lynch thus resulting in the lesser energy DDL. I normally relate civ DDL to positivity and high energy.

Sig and Dizzy: I don't think either of these two are bad. This one is a gut, but seeing how they are operating is very Town/Town.

Jumped to Dom to get the gun away from TSP.

These are some side-stepping non-committal opportunistic votes from the Doctor.

[VOTE: DrWilgy] aubergine

[Sloonei]

All three lynches have been shrugs. Day 1 we were lucky to have four civilians present who all guessed right. On Days 2 and 3 we were not so lucky, and it's almost certain that we did not have unanimous civilian population at the end of those phases. It is not necessary to assume that the winning bandwagons were driven by mafia, but it it difficult not to speculate that they were there and ready to tip the scales in whichever direction favored them.

Wilgy's vote for Dom fits that mold. He made a comment about "getting the gun away from TSP", which would suggest that he distrusted Tony and used that as his justification to lynch civilian Dom, rather than owning the vote for what it is. On Day 1, he propped up his vote for timmer with my case, which I'd already abandoned by the time Wilgy saw it. He did not vote yesterday.

[TonyStarkPrime]

Never mind that lynching inactives is never entirely bad and the fact we are winning the game means we have some spare days to test things like that.

DDL, on Day 2 after one successful lynch.

I mean he’s right, right?

[Sloonei]

I’ll sleep on it. Maybe I’ll make a team combo table tomorrow

Any progress on this?

[TonyStarkPrime]

I’ll sleep on it. Maybe I’ll make a team combo table tomorrow

Any progress on this?

I’m still thinking of doing it :/. I’ve had a lot to do but I’ll try to get it done tonight while I’m watching jeopardy

[TonyStarkPrime]

Screen Shot 2020-01-10 at 8.41.43 PM.png (60.39 KiB) Viewed 970 times

ask me questions
this doesn't take into account individual likelihoods of being scum; only how prohibitive a certain team combination would be.

Green: no mental gymnastics required to understand this
Yellow: doing a handstand mental gymnastics required to understand this
Orange: competitive mental gymnastics required to understand this
Red: olympic level mental gymnastics required to understand this

[Sloonei]

Wait, so green means there’s a strong likelihood of a partnership and red means no chance?

[Sloonei]

I was literally just posting a verbal sigh to say that i’m not being set up for a mislynch because no one’s doing shit in here. Then linki happened.

[TonyStarkPrime]

Wait, so green means there’s a strong likelihood of a partnership and red means no chance?

Green means "sure I don't see why not".

[Sloonei]

Wait, so green means there’s a strong likelihood of a partnership and red means no chance?

Green means "sure I don't see why not".

Aight. I just would have colored it the other way around.

Are there any particular pairings that stood out to you?

[Sloonei]

I also notice that Mac has all the red squares and only one green one. How would you characterize your read on him, and why are there so many yellows/oranges?

[TonyStarkPrime]

I also notice that Mac has all the red squares and only one green one. How would you characterize your read on him, and why are there so many yellows/oranges?

Mac is an easy dunk target by nature of his relative absence so I didn't count that in his read, but a team with him takes a huge risk leaving Sloonei up for so long IF they don't intend to at least try to lynch Sloonei. That's what's so prohibitive about Mac teams. Mac Sloonei is red not because I couldn't see it but more because it's the kind of team that deserves a win if they can get it at this point. And I also can't see it it's way too clever. Michelle and Sig haven't been around to promote the kind of Lynch that a Mac scum team would need, though notably in a Mac/Michelle pairing, Epi has done most of the work. DDL never risks lynching a mostly inactive teammate on Day 2 so that's that red read. The other ones kill Sloonei and don't interact as they have.

My read on Mac individually is null lean scum. Mac as scum here wants back-to-back Sloonei/Epi lynches (assuming he's not paired with one of them), and currently it seems things might go that way and all of Mac's posts fit inside that narrative. I will make no attempts to read Mac himself, but he's mildly pinged me a few times.

The main reasons for yellows and oranges are day one votes, town presences, and a prohibitive kill strategy. Honestly at this point in the game, I probably should be able to assign more of those, but all of the lynches have been apathetic thus far. I can ascertain almost nothing from voting patterns on day 2 and 3.

[Sloonei]

So you are operating under the assumption that I’m supposed to be mislynched today?

[TonyStarkPrime]

So you are operating under the assumption that I’m supposed to be mislynched today?

No.
1) that
2) you’re scum
3) scum doesn’t care if you’re alive

[Sloonei]

So you are operating under the assumption that I’m supposed to be mislynched today?

No.
1) that
2) you’re scum
3) scum doesn’t care if you’re alive

It just seems like me being alive plays a big role in a lot of those reads. But I guess it’s more hypothetical than I thought at first glance.

I’m still not sure about anything and half the players in the game have not posted at all this phase, so

[MacDougall]

I also notice that Mac has all the red squares and only one green one. How would you characterize your read on him, and why are there so many yellows/oranges?

I'm cool.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Never mind that lynching inactives is never entirely bad and the fact we are winning the game means we have some spare days to test things like that.

DDL, on Day 2 after one successful lynch.

How is that even wrong?

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Another option is that the mafia team is afraid of a potential doctor saving me.

Or they’re leaving me alive because I’ve been dead wrong about everything.

Didn't the doctor die ages ago

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Vote: Epi

Epi was integral to the Dom lynch and at least voted for Nova. The “Epi isn’t doing anything” narrative misses that Epi has had just as much direction as almost anyone else.

I hate this logic. Being in town lynches correlates very little with actually being scum.

That said, this fact is giving me pause about jumping on the Sloonei wagon, because it would be the third consecutive time I followed an Epi case. If Epi is bad he's playing me 3 times. But I'm itching to break Sloonei just to see what's inside.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

@DrWilgy @Dragon D. Luffy @Michelle @sig

Am I town or mafia?

Dunno

[Dragon D. Luffy]

We've come to that magical mid-game point where all my suspects either died or became less suspicious and I have no idea what to do.

I'm almost jumping on the "sloonei is alive therefore bad" theory which does make sense but I can see the obvious WIFOM in it.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Besides that

TSP looks all game-solvey and I don't wanna lynch him.

Mac is barely playing tbh he's just doing the more abridged version of Mac Attack due to probabvly not having read everything. Scum or just inactive townie coasting, pick one. We should lynch him eventually maybe.

Michelle feels game-solvey too. But I don't like the fact she spent the last EoD focusing on my voteless suspicions against her instead of the lynch poll. If nova flipped bad I'd clear Michelle for that, but nova flipped a civ so what we have left is some very succesful coasting by her if she's scum.

Lynching WIlgy is so 2017...

Epi is meh. Activity is fine, whatever, but he's lacking more bickering and suttorness that I've come to know and love from Epi. That said the availableness argument still kind of excuses that. And today he did the Sloon thing which looks more like classic Epi.

Sig looked pretty legit N1 then vanished. It's weird for Sig not to be the focus in a game.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Oh yeah and there's LC.

I could always lynch him but I'm not as passionate for it as I was in the first two days.

[Long Con]

I have regret.

Wilgy's last post, six days ago. Did he forget about the game?

[Long Con]

Oh yeah and there's LC.

I could always lynch him but I'm not as passionate for it as I was in the first two days.

Let's try to lynch at least one more baddie first.

[Long Con]

QUIN WAS DELETED.

HE WAS "THE HOT ROCKS POLKA"- A SEMI-LIMITED CIVILIAN DOCTOR.

Also, yeah, the doctor is gone... unless "semi-limited" leaves room for another protective role. I think everyone else has been vanilla, including the Mafioso. So probs no doc.

[Sloonei]

I didn’t even see that. I thought all the deaths were vanilla.

[Sloonei]

[VOTE: ddl] aubergine

If i’m going down I want to go down voting for my biggest lingering suspicion. His posts today look like he’s biding his time until someone else makes a decision for him.

[TonyStarkPrime]

Vote: Epi

Epi was integral to the Dom lynch and at least voted for Nova. The “Epi isn’t doing anything” narrative misses that Epi has had just as much direction as almost anyone else.

I hate this logic. Being in town lynches correlates very little with actually being scum.

That said, this fact is giving me pause about jumping on the Sloonei wagon, because it would be the third consecutive time I followed an Epi case. If Epi is bad he's playing me 3 times. But I'm itching to break Sloonei just to see what's inside.

The logic isn’t that Epi is bad because he’s part of the lynches, the argument is he’s bad because a narrative emerged that he wasn’t doing anything, when he has been.

[TonyStarkPrime]

So you are operating under the assumption that I’m supposed to be mislynched today?

No.
1) that
2) you’re scum
3) scum doesn’t care if you’re alive

It just seems like me being alive plays a big role in a lot of those reads. But I guess it’s more hypothetical than I thought at first glance.

I’m still not sure about anything and half the players in the game have not posted at all this phase, so

There was a discussion recently about how often scum gets lynched on day one and how well that converts to a town/scum lynch and I don’t remember the exact statistics but the general idea was that it’s not actually all that helpful to solving. I think you being alive is the biggest piece of macro evidence in the game right now, just because town has been on autopilot for a few days and the day 1 lynch didn’t show much.