The Syndicate

Posted: **Sun Aug 16, 2020 4:45 am**

ur great

Posted: **Sun Aug 16, 2020 4:55 am**

mfw people are putting me in PoEs but I will town lock myself after one try hard post

Posted: **Sun Aug 16, 2020 5:13 am**

Spoiler: show

Urist wrote: ↑Tue Aug 11, 2020 1:35 pm what is 112's wolf meta?

Urist wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 8:44 am I don't see how 112's entrance was scummy, but for every second that passes without a post from her I become more comfortable with the wagon.

Urist wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 10:45 am
112 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 10:38 am
Alison wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 10:36 am willing to believe this is just a bad reach and not some made up scum narrative

"I would dayvig nutella/alison right now" is still horrible
I think it's horrible in that it's probably not the right play, but I don't think it's horrible in the sense that tutuu's significantly more likely to flip scum for it.
tutuu has said she doesn't have high confidence in her scum reads so idk why she'd think dayvigging someone is a good idea if she's town

Urist wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 5:19 pm I just got off the phone with my wagon analyst, she says that 112 is most likely town here due to lack of momentum on that wagon.

Urist wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 5:23 pm
ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 5:21 pm
Urist wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 5:19 pm I just got off the phone with my wagon analyst, she says that 112 is most likely town here due to lack of momentum on that wagon.
Where is the momentum supposed to come from if 112 were scum?
Her buddies, duh.

Urist wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 5:47 pm hot take: 1 scum is not voting, and the other two are on their own vanity wagons.
Spoiler: show
112
Voters: nutella, Amy, ColinIsCool

Alison
Voters: tutuu, Urist

Amy
Voters: NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME, MacDougall

MacDougall
Voters: TonyStarkPrime, protocultures

Carotenoid
Voters: Turnip Head

nutella
Voters: tedxtr

TenThousandCalories
Voters: 112

tutuu
Voters: Alison

No vote / Unvote
Voters: TenThousandCalories, Carotenoid

Voters: None
So that'd mean that one of 10k / Carotte is scum and two of Alison / 112 / tedxtr / TurnipHead are scum.
This read brought to you by a bad analysis that's probably incorrect.

Urist wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 9:04 pm
Amy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 5:50 pm for the record i think the fact that 112 exists in this state of being arguably consensus scumread but not actually being pushed harder than she is is somewhat wolf indicative

if it were a stagnant runaway wagon then yeah i'd be concerned we were dunking on an LHF villager

but like

people are still running around trying to get their own wagons to take off and surpass 112, there's not that much momentum in favor of actually yeeting her even despite her status on people's readslists

and i think that indicates there are people who feel pressured to not townread her but also would really prefer to vote someone else

i.e. teammates

quite possibly too early for that sort of analysis, but it's a thought i want out there
I think that you're reading the wagon with a bias of already thinking she's scum.
I think your analysis is solid, but one thing isn't quite right. Nobody is really pushing for a competing wagon to surpass 112's (aside from tutuu, who is probably town anyway).
I do agree with you that if there actually were strong counter-pushes, 112 might be mafia being protected by teammates. But that isn't happening soooo I'm probably right. Sorry.

Urist wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 9:06 pm
Carotenoid wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 6:12 pm
Urist wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 5:39 pm
Carotenoid wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 5:27 pm
Urist wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 5:23 pm
ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 5:21 pm
Urist wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 5:19 pm I just got off the phone with my wagon analyst, she says that 112 is most likely town here due to lack of momentum on that wagon.
Where is the momentum supposed to come from if 112 were scum?
Her buddies, duh.
what if they're just afk though
I know this game feels slow, but how many AFKers do we actually have? 10k, maybe? I think that most people have logged on since 112 became the thread's pariah, so I'm not sure your counterargument is valid.
I'm ok with slapping a caveat of "if 2 lurkers flip scum, invalidate me" on my analysis. But like... I don't really think that's going to happen.
Hmn yeah I kinda came around to that conclusion about AFKers after ISOing the people I didn't have strong impressions of.
I still think it's a bit early to clear 112 from that alone though, it relies too much on the idea that her teammates would be eager to bus, which really depends on who said teammates are.
Bus? No. Distance, with the expectation that the wagon will collapse like most early d1 wagons do? Sure.
You're right that it's too early to clear 112 for this. But it's enough to make me argue against the wagon.

Urist wrote: ↑Thu Aug 13, 2020 12:32 pm
Carotenoid wrote: ↑Thu Aug 13, 2020 12:19 pm Votecount
112 (3): nutella, Amy, ColinIsCool
Alison (2): NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME, tutuu
Amy (1): Turnip Head
ColinIsCool (1): TonyStarkPrime
MacDougall (2): protocultures, tedxtr
Turnip Head/DrWilgy (3): 112, Alison, Urist
Urist (1): MacDougall

112 & Alison voting Turnip Head together is making me shiver. Could it be w/w? hmmn maybe.
Wait did 112 seriously show up to change her vote from 10k to Wilgy without posting?

Urist wrote: ↑Thu Aug 13, 2020 12:46 pm [VOTE: Alison] aubergine

So from this progression - we get a little defending argument based on the classical "wolves wouldn't allow this to go" which, ironically, is what Urist is doing by defending 112 there, although acknowledging Carote's PoV as probable.

The progression goes from a "i didn't find their entrance scummy" to a defence based purely on game state, then he turns on 112 for switching their vote without posting about it in thread and still makes the tie-breaking vote between Alison and 112, putting Alison at 4-3 with 112.

Yeah, looks pretty terrible. I'd vote them out today.

Posted: **Sun Aug 16, 2020 5:22 am**

Fmpov ; I think there's 1 busser maximum and 1 that was on the counterwagon or Wilgy

that's usually how scum teams choose to operate, plus the relative low resistance to the 112 wagon indicates bussers.

I don't think that he was bussed by both people?

proto looks good, mac looks good, nutella flipped civvie, alison soft cleared just based on wagons

would leave a PoE of TSP / Amy / Colin

I don't think Amy bussed either, so it would make the team exactly TSP / Colin which seems unlikely

Posted: **Sun Aug 16, 2020 5:25 am**

From a 2 on the counterwagon theory - it reads very unlikely.

112 was clearly not going to wiggle out of that yeet, they didn't look like they even wanted to. Choosing to save them would mean that scum team essentially accepts defeat.

Posted: **Sun Aug 16, 2020 5:33 am**

Spoiler: show

This looks so bad that I gth lean town

I don't think Nanook is that terrible of a scum player

However, it's worth mentioning that looking at time stamps, he wasn't there to develop his read on 112 since 10:32 (I think) AM EET, when the EoD was at like 2 am or 3 am something like that - which makes like 15-16 hours before EoD when he stopped posting.

From my scattered memory, I don't know in what state the 112 push was like and so he could've defended them based on just their entry post or something - which in his own mind would've still been a salvageable slot. I'll look back in context and come back to this read.

Posted: **Sun Aug 16, 2020 5:49 am**

Spoiler: show

112 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 10, 2020 8:59 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Aug 10, 2020 8:54 pm I propose that we have some of us be the Early Game try hards that do things like Say Stuff and Produce Content etc

While the rest of me and Joseph meme and say “yes that’s good” or “no that’s bad”
yes that's good

112 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 10, 2020 9:00 pm As Tori Tortoise, I suggest we take it slow.

112 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 10, 2020 9:04 pm
protocultures wrote: ↑Mon Aug 10, 2020 9:04 pm just checking in to say hello.
well hay there

112 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 10, 2020 9:07 pm EVERYBODY WATCH OUT FOR SNAKE

112 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 10, 2020 9:21 pm
Carotenoid wrote: ↑Mon Aug 10, 2020 9:19 pm
112 1612 = 666 ILLUMINATI CONFIRMED
2 + 3 = 6?

112 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 11, 2020 10:14 am Town
tutuu
Amy
Urist
Mac

112 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 11, 2020 10:16 am
protocultures wrote: ↑Tue Aug 11, 2020 8:47 am as a reminder, day 0 is meme day and we skip night and go direct to day 1 after this, right?
Why do you want it to be meme day?

112 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 11, 2020 10:17 am Carote can be town too

112 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 11, 2020 10:24 am
Alison wrote: ↑Tue Aug 11, 2020 3:27 am
MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Aug 11, 2020 2:47 am
MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Aug 10, 2020 11:13 pm Mafia team

112
nutella
proto

disgusting
Anyway I'm just tunnelling this until I have flips and stuff.
Why these 3? Just because they haven't spoken?

Also my early reads are that Mac, Amy and tutuu are town. I agree with Amy's towncase on Mac and her description of his meta fits with what I saw in Space Invaders. I have a 100% success rate at finding tutuu as town really early so far, so just trust me on that one.
Your reads are really similar to mine. That's a good look.

112 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 11, 2020 10:32 am
protocultures wrote: ↑Tue Aug 11, 2020 10:28 am hmm being scumread by multiple people day 0.

This kind of makes the game easier for me to solve although it does increase my chances of dying.
I'm not necessarily scumreading you. I just didn't like your entrance.

Why did you ask about day 0?

112 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 11, 2020 10:37 am ^regarding Benson (forgot to respond to that because I was catching up on the thread), it was AtE because I wasn't sure I'd be able to duplicate the same level of activity I had the day before in the wildcard game. I wanted an excuse to slank a bit.

112 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 11, 2020 12:18 pm
TenThousandCalories wrote: ↑Tue Aug 11, 2020 11:46 am
ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Tue Aug 11, 2020 11:22 am tutuu is too-too nice. Lock scum, bake 'em away toys
agreed. it's clearly fake
weak read imo

112 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 11, 2020 1:41 pm not wolf

tony = paranoid cop, nutella = out to lunch

go hunt someone who's actually scum

112 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 10:00 am
MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Aug 11, 2020 9:08 pm
Carotenoid wrote: ↑Tue Aug 11, 2020 9:01 pm What's 112 wolf meta?
It's hard to say tbh. I think of anyone here I have the best idea but I wouldn't trust my meta all that much.

The first time I encountered 112 was in champs last year in the qualifiers they were town and they had as much wim as anyone I'd ever played with. Sharp as hell, unafraid to ruffle feathers. We had a town v town war. I've never seen that 112 since so I think that it's unfair to scumread her in the absence of that meta.

The second time I played with 112 they randed wolf and deepwolfed very well and got to f3 in the champs semi last year where they bested me and Vanity after I got myself into kingmaker. In that game their wolfgame was typified by being unafraid to vote for and even eliminate partners. They would have been scumread more if not for flips revealing that 112 had pushed partners. By the end of the game there was evidence of 112 having cased and voted on each and every single partner. One notable thing was hammering their teammate Evenstar while 112 and I were both in the thread laughing at how outed she was. 112 just lolnoped and hammered her when really I wasn't even that convinced she was mafia.

I think the two aforementioned games are probably 112 playing town (and mafia) at her top form. Since then by and large I have seen 112 play near identical as either alignment. Mostly surface level reads. Significant periods of no content. Doesn't really care when people scumread her. Just hasn't seemed to have near the wim as either alignment. I understand a lot has occured for 112 personally since champs last year and I think mostly 112 feels like they can't afford to get themselves that immersed in mafia for their own sanity frankly.

Hope that helps.
I'm just biding energy until we get 112 Unleashed.

112 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 10:09 am Amy and tutuu are both involved in the game in a way I wouldn't expect they could create as scum- townleans there still.

Urist seems to be coasting a little bit and isn't offering too much of substance, but I like their tone and they seem to be inside a cocoon of genuine uncertainty around the gamestate. I maintain my townlean.

Colin is way on the outskirts of things, dropping in to comment little bits here and there without much solving actions. I think he's a good person to put under the microscope.

112 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 10:11 am nutella is p towny and just wrong on her read of me

I read her correctly in the last game I played with her where she was scum and feel good about her here

112 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 10:15 am someone called tenthousandcalories obvious town but i didn't like the only post i remember from that slot

who was it and why are they obvtown?

112 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 10:16 am
Alison wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 10:14 am
112 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 10:09 am Amy and tutuu are both involved in the game in a way I wouldn't expect they could create as scum- townleans there still.

Urist seems to be coasting a little bit and isn't offering too much of substance, but I like their tone and they seem to be inside a cocoon of genuine uncertainty around the gamestate. I maintain my townlean.

Colin is way on the outskirts of things, dropping in to comment little bits here and there without much solving actions. I think he's a good person to put under the microscope.
FWIW I think this is NAI for Colin since I've incorrectly read him as scum in a couple of games for doing exactly this. Obviously it doesn't make him town because he can do this as scum too, but it certainly isn't a scumtell.
Fair.

I've played with him before and he does seem a little more reserved than even what I remember, but he's not too far off his meta that it locks him or anything.

112 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 10:23 am
tutuu wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 10:19 am
112 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 10:15 am someone called tenthousandcalories obvious town but i didn't like the only post i remember from that slot

who was it and why are they obvtown?
it was a misunderstanding between me and carotte, turns out nobody is townreading 10k calories
thanks

[VOTE: TenThousandCalories] aubergine

112 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 10:24 am
tutuu wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 10:23 am
Alison wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 10:21 am
tutuu wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 10:18 am yes i dont think nutella would call your posts boring if she was town
why
because its very out of line with her character based off of my perception of her
not a fan of this answer

what's your perception of her?

112 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 10:28 am

112 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 10:29 am tbh i think you're really stretching things with that read tutuu

112 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 10:38 am
Alison wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 10:36 am willing to believe this is just a bad reach and not some made up scum narrative

"I would dayvig nutella/alison right now" is still horrible
I think it's horrible in that it's probably not the right play, but I don't think it's horrible in the sense that tutuu's significantly more likely to flip scum for it.

112 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 11:08 am
tutuu wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 10:57 am
Alison wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 10:45 am There are some players who are trigger-happy enough to blow away anyone they dislike, but I don't see tutuu as someone who would go rogue that hard. tutuu is also broadly concerned about making sure that people in the game like her and have fun in the game, and this is at odds with killing someone off the bat on a snap read D0 - a belligerent act that would surely run contrary to this self-image and would likely cause people to be severely annoyed with and dislike her if she was wrong (because it's bad play and everyone knows it).
also all of this is true but i literally faked a red peek on a town last game. something something cant control impulses / self destructive risk taking behavior due to some bad stuff about me etc etc. maybe i really would have shot u idk. thank god i dont have a gun. mountainous goat
This reads like you're hardreading Alison as civ now.

112 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 11:10 am
tedxtr wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 11:06 am
Alison wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 10:51 am
tedxtr wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 10:49 am one in mac / nutella might be wolf which would mean I'd have to drop my slank / meme shtick and push there which is a total drag
You've got my interest. Talk to me about this.
I think nutella hasn't shown any town trait and I didn't like her town read on proto, nor her read on me as that's kind of NAI behaviour for me - she's town reading "lhf" for very weak reasoning which she has shown in other scum games that it seems to be her MO mostly

I also think Mac's opening post reads are okay in a vacuum, in the sense that town can also do it but from personal experience, they are more reliable when it comes to scum reads rather than town reads ; so him (presumably) town reading Nutella just for that when she's experienced enough is maybe TMI-y

that's why I'm kinda stuck in between the two
first line here is coherent and I understand where it's coming from but I can't parse the second one at all

112 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 11:19 am
Turnip Head wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 11:18 am What is LHF?
low-hanging fruit

112 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 1:05 pm i can't into these meta discussions but do agree alison looks nitpicky/is forming complex reads out of very little information. although i think that's a towny trait more often than not.

112 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 2:32 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 2:08 pm
112 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 10:09 am Amy and tutuu are both involved in the game in a way I wouldn't expect they could create as scum- townleans there still.

Urist seems to be coasting a little bit and isn't offering too much of substance, but I like their tone and they seem to be inside a cocoon of genuine uncertainty around the gamestate. I maintain my townlean.

Colin is way on the outskirts of things, dropping in to comment little bits here and there without much solving actions. I think he's a good person to put under the microscope.

112 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 10:11 am nutella is p towny and just wrong on her read of me

I read her correctly in the last game I played with her where she was scum and feel good about her here

112 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 10:15 am someone called tenthousandcalories obvious town but i didn't like the only post i remember from that slot

who was it and why are they obvtown?

112 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 10:16 am
Alison wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 10:14 am
112 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 10:09 am Amy and tutuu are both involved in the game in a way I wouldn't expect they could create as scum- townleans there still.

Urist seems to be coasting a little bit and isn't offering too much of substance, but I like their tone and they seem to be inside a cocoon of genuine uncertainty around the gamestate. I maintain my townlean.

Colin is way on the outskirts of things, dropping in to comment little bits here and there without much solving actions. I think he's a good person to put under the microscope.
FWIW I think this is NAI for Colin since I've incorrectly read him as scum in a couple of games for doing exactly this. Obviously it doesn't make him town because he can do this as scum too, but it certainly isn't a scumtell.
Fair.

I've played with him before and he does seem a little more reserved than even what I remember, but he's not too far off his meta that it locks him or anything.

anyone who's townreading this is just wrong

this is not town 112

it just isn't

fake fake fake
u was a homie

112 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 2:45 pm @nutella I'm eating sour cream.

These are the posts that Nanook has seen - anything after this Nanook wasn't there to spot them, however, rechecking is always appreciated to make sure I'm not wrong here

From what I gather - the only force behind 112 up to his last post in this spoiler was nutella - who kept saying 112 was scum although there wasn't any case per say

The other people that were kind of poking were Mac and TSP's early joke vote ; I think a scum would've thought it was still worth defending for now really ; I believe this was at the time where Alison / tutuu was also a big discussion point and fmpov they're both likely town, so scum would've still thought it was salvageable

I thought Nanook's terrible progression was townie but after this analysis they're compatible - not hard paired together - it's hard to figure out nanook's entire take on 112 and 112's take on Nanook - but this is definitely a slot to look into later on in the game.

I don't think this warrants a scum read as of right now - I still think Urist has a lot more equity based on progressions.

Posted: **Sun Aug 16, 2020 5:54 am**

It actually feels good being alone in thread and not being interrupted while I'm doing my analysis and stuff

Posted: **Sun Aug 16, 2020 5:59 am**

I hope I'll be back in like 6 hours with more analysis barring responsibilities

Posted: **Sun Aug 16, 2020 8:29 am**

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Aug 15, 2020 10:57 pm like "why are you voting me" is probably >rand wolf

Nahhhhhhhhhhhh

Posted: **Sun Aug 16, 2020 8:31 am**

tedxtr wrote: ↑Sun Aug 16, 2020 5:22 am Fmpov ; I think there's 1 busser maximum and 1 that was on the counterwagon or Wilgy

that's usually how scum teams choose to operate, plus the relative low resistance to the 112 wagon indicates bussers.

I don't think that he was bussed by both people?

proto looks good, mac looks good, nutella flipped civvie, alison soft cleared just based on wagons

would leave a PoE of TSP / Amy / Colin

I don't think Amy bussed either, so it would make the team exactly TSP / Colin which seems unlikely

Bish I am LOCK TOWN

Posted: **Sun Aug 16, 2020 8:33 am**

tedxtr wrote: ↑Sun Aug 16, 2020 5:13 am
Spoiler: show
Urist wrote: ↑Tue Aug 11, 2020 1:35 pm what is 112's wolf meta?

Urist wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 8:44 am I don't see how 112's entrance was scummy, but for every second that passes without a post from her I become more comfortable with the wagon.

Urist wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 10:45 am
112 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 10:38 am
Alison wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 10:36 am willing to believe this is just a bad reach and not some made up scum narrative

"I would dayvig nutella/alison right now" is still horrible
I think it's horrible in that it's probably not the right play, but I don't think it's horrible in the sense that tutuu's significantly more likely to flip scum for it.
tutuu has said she doesn't have high confidence in her scum reads so idk why she'd think dayvigging someone is a good idea if she's town

Urist wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 5:19 pm I just got off the phone with my wagon analyst, she says that 112 is most likely town here due to lack of momentum on that wagon.

Urist wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 5:23 pm
ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 5:21 pm
Urist wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 5:19 pm I just got off the phone with my wagon analyst, she says that 112 is most likely town here due to lack of momentum on that wagon.
Where is the momentum supposed to come from if 112 were scum?
Her buddies, duh.

Urist wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 5:47 pm hot take: 1 scum is not voting, and the other two are on their own vanity wagons.
Spoiler: show
112
Voters: nutella, Amy, ColinIsCool

Alison
Voters: tutuu, Urist

Amy
Voters: NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME, MacDougall

MacDougall
Voters: TonyStarkPrime, protocultures

Carotenoid
Voters: Turnip Head

nutella
Voters: tedxtr

TenThousandCalories
Voters: 112

tutuu
Voters: Alison

No vote / Unvote
Voters: TenThousandCalories, Carotenoid

Voters: None
So that'd mean that one of 10k / Carotte is scum and two of Alison / 112 / tedxtr / TurnipHead are scum.
This read brought to you by a bad analysis that's probably incorrect.

Urist wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 9:04 pm
Amy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 5:50 pm for the record i think the fact that 112 exists in this state of being arguably consensus scumread but not actually being pushed harder than she is is somewhat wolf indicative

if it were a stagnant runaway wagon then yeah i'd be concerned we were dunking on an LHF villager

but like

people are still running around trying to get their own wagons to take off and surpass 112, there's not that much momentum in favor of actually yeeting her even despite her status on people's readslists

and i think that indicates there are people who feel pressured to not townread her but also would really prefer to vote someone else

i.e. teammates

quite possibly too early for that sort of analysis, but it's a thought i want out there
I think that you're reading the wagon with a bias of already thinking she's scum.
I think your analysis is solid, but one thing isn't quite right. Nobody is really pushing for a competing wagon to surpass 112's (aside from tutuu, who is probably town anyway).
I do agree with you that if there actually were strong counter-pushes, 112 might be mafia being protected by teammates. But that isn't happening soooo I'm probably right. Sorry.

Urist wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 9:06 pm
Carotenoid wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 6:12 pm
Urist wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 5:39 pm
Carotenoid wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 5:27 pm
Urist wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 5:23 pm
ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 5:21 pm

Where is the momentum supposed to come from if 112 were scum?
Her buddies, duh.
what if they're just afk though
I know this game feels slow, but how many AFKers do we actually have? 10k, maybe? I think that most people have logged on since 112 became the thread's pariah, so I'm not sure your counterargument is valid.
I'm ok with slapping a caveat of "if 2 lurkers flip scum, invalidate me" on my analysis. But like... I don't really think that's going to happen.
Hmn yeah I kinda came around to that conclusion about AFKers after ISOing the people I didn't have strong impressions of.
I still think it's a bit early to clear 112 from that alone though, it relies too much on the idea that her teammates would be eager to bus, which really depends on who said teammates are.
Bus? No. Distance, with the expectation that the wagon will collapse like most early d1 wagons do? Sure.
You're right that it's too early to clear 112 for this. But it's enough to make me argue against the wagon.

Urist wrote: ↑Thu Aug 13, 2020 12:32 pm
Carotenoid wrote: ↑Thu Aug 13, 2020 12:19 pm Votecount
112 (3): nutella, Amy, ColinIsCool
Alison (2): NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME, tutuu
Amy (1): Turnip Head
ColinIsCool (1): TonyStarkPrime
MacDougall (2): protocultures, tedxtr
Turnip Head/DrWilgy (3): 112, Alison, Urist
Urist (1): MacDougall

112 & Alison voting Turnip Head together is making me shiver. Could it be w/w? hmmn maybe.
Wait did 112 seriously show up to change her vote from 10k to Wilgy without posting?

Urist wrote: ↑Thu Aug 13, 2020 12:46 pm [VOTE: Alison] aubergine

So from this progression - we get a little defending argument based on the classical "wolves wouldn't allow this to go" which, ironically, is what Urist is doing by defending 112 there, although acknowledging Carote's PoV as probable.

The progression goes from a "i didn't find their entrance scummy" to a defence based purely on game state, then he turns on 112 for switching their vote without posting about it in thread and still makes the tie-breaking vote between Alison and 112, putting Alison at 4-3 with 112.

Yeah, looks pretty terrible. I'd vote them out today.

I probably got a little tunneled on thinking 112 was going to flip town. The thing I didn't (and still don't) understand is how 112 sat at 3 votes for forever, when so many people scum read her. If all of those people were town, I would expect 112's partners to bus earlier because it was pretty clear from the start of day that 112 was going to be a major candidate, if not the obvious yeet. I guess the piece I was missing is that at least one person who called 112 obv was not town, making the yeet not as overwhelmingly predetermined as it might otherwise seem.

Posted: **Sun Aug 16, 2020 9:10 am**

does anyone have the votes at EOD from day 1?

Posted: **Sun Aug 16, 2020 11:22 am**

proto they're in the post at the beginning

I challenge the notion that it was a joke vote. I was as serious as I am with everything that I do/

Posted: **Sun Aug 16, 2020 12:12 pm**

[VOTE: Urist] aubergine

Posted: **Sun Aug 16, 2020 12:17 pm**

Cool I'm okay still voting turnip head today then.

Posted: **Sun Aug 16, 2020 12:19 pm**

I'd flip to save TSP I think over Urist. I can never find Urist as town even when Urist is town so that's just a failing on my part. TSP reminds me of town TSP in some other games I have played.

Will see how votes develop.

Posted: **Sun Aug 16, 2020 12:27 pm**

protocultures wrote: ↑Sun Aug 16, 2020 12:17 pm Cool I'm okay still voting turnip head today then.

Seems lazy. Talk to me about this.

Posted: **Sun Aug 16, 2020 12:39 pm**

tedxtr wrote: ↑Sun Aug 16, 2020 5:25 am 112 was clearly not going to wiggle out of that yeet, they didn't look like they even wanted to. Choosing to save them would mean that scum team essentially accepts defeat.

Ted can you expand on this? How would the save attempt mean an acceptance of defeat?

It's my understanding that there was at least some real suspicion in Alison as not all 5 could've been scum and that the votes were close.

Posted: **Sun Aug 16, 2020 12:52 pm**

I keep reading people on the lines of "who bussed?" And even Urist's most recent post seems to indicate that line of thinking during day 1.

As an exercise, I'd like people to tell me who is bad if no one bussed. Mine are Nook and Urist.

Nook feels off. Not sure how to describe his play outside of detached.

Urist's "vote momentum on 112 makes them civ" doesn't make sense and feels more forced than I'm comfortable with.

Posted: **Sun Aug 16, 2020 1:18 pm**

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sun Aug 16, 2020 12:27 pm
protocultures wrote: ↑Sun Aug 16, 2020 12:17 pm Cool I'm okay still voting turnip head today then.
Seems lazy. Talk to me about this.

Nothing you did really, it's just your slot seems maf to me.

A vote on Amy day one is just bad and the slot had low post count and none of them were very towny. If it makes you feel better you are unlikely to get yeeted today since everyone seems hell-bent on killing Urist.

Posted: **Sun Aug 16, 2020 1:20 pm**

proto is mixing up people

Posted: **Sun Aug 16, 2020 1:21 pm**

nanook is a ?

Posted: **Sun Aug 16, 2020 2:06 pm**

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Aug 16, 2020 1:21 pm nanook is a ?

Female shrug emoji?

Posted: **Sun Aug 16, 2020 2:40 pm**

I'm townreading Wilgy on the a basis of liking his catchup, not thinking that his taken positions gives him many outs or wriggle room if he's mafia, and trusting nutella's strong read on his slot as town.

tedxtr I am not going to do you the insult of townreading you and pretending that post was out of your scum range, because it is essentially a very long winded way of repeating the positions that almost everyone else holds (one busser and one on the counterwagon, Urist is suspicious, nanook is suspicious).

I also think two on the counterwagon is very possible. An Alison exe was not out of the question D1. If we posit that, for instance, tutuu was town and tunnelling me, then surely the scum team would find that an attractive push. My wagon also gained steam right as 112 wagon slowed down, before an EoD resurgence in the 112 wagon caused it to win out. This suggests that 1) mafia were not in control of the 112 wagon and 2) that the wagon on me was an active attempt to save 112, both of which point to the possibility of there being 2 mafia on the counterwagon.

Posted: **Sun Aug 16, 2020 4:28 pm**

i woke up at 3 oops

wanna reread some stuff and then I'll legacy

Posted: **Sun Aug 16, 2020 7:21 pm**

Alison, Colin, Mac, proto, and tutuu should not be re-evaluated until LYLO - I understand that tutuu's inclusion in this pool is going to be somewhat controversial at this stage, but I just... don't think she's ever a wolf here, regardless of how pushing on Alison made her look.

Of the rest of that pool, I think I'm actually most secure in proto being town; the way he approached the 112 slot is just super super pure. They're all villagery, obviously; if I'm being paranoid, Mac dunking 112 has shades of Nanook on KZA in Philosophers, but given the fact that the wolves' entire strategy in that game revolved around Nanook hellbussing, that's not anything that makes me concerned about Mac.

The immediate PoE should be Urist, TSP, and 10k. 10k in particular should never ever ever EVER survive to LYLO, if he doesn't get replaced; policy dunk him the day before if you have to, but that's not an albatross y'all can afford to have around your necks heading into worst-case-scenario F5.

Nanook, Wilgy, and Carotte all have various things going for them. I'd trust Wilgy the most out of this pool, in service to Nutella's TR on TH. Nanook is probably not teamed with Urist, IMO - I think Urists posts towards Nanook 100% read as pocketing if Nanook flips w. Carotte ostensibly has 112 spew but I think goes up in wolf equity off a TSP greenflip, as I think TSP is by far the most likely 112 busser.

tedxtr is the hardest player for me to really sort because he's felt somewhat out of phase with the overall gamestate - in a vacuum, I'm inclined to say that's villagery, but I'm not married to that at all. If this game goes to LYLO I 100% expect him to be there so uhh try to solve him before then I guess lmao.

Vote today should be between Urist and TSP. At the moment, I favor Urist; going to do some backreading to determine if this is still the case. That said, if I DO decide on TSP I won't be swapping unless I know someone else is around to break the tie. [also they could totally be w/w so hopefully this isn't a fruitless exercise]

Posted: **Sun Aug 16, 2020 7:25 pm**

Is tutu a controversial pick? They shouldn’t be imo, if this is their scum game they probably just win kek

Posted: **Sun Aug 16, 2020 7:26 pm**

correction: I think Urists posts towards Nanook 100% read as pocketing if Urist flips w.

proofreading is good sometimes

Posted: **Sun Aug 16, 2020 7:36 pm**

Yeah, the more I read Urist's ISO the more comfortable I am with a dunk here.

Urist's early D1 posts about 112 expressed a relative level of comfort with the wagon, when the thread state was still all over the place and there was no clear alternative consensus. When tutuu v Alison really started to take hold, though, Urist got weird about it.

His progression on Alison's bad. He calls tutuu v Alison tvt... and then not 20 minutes later expresses a scumread on Alison, and then votes her about an hour after that. Right after the Alison vote is when he starts asserting that the 112 wagon's stagnancy is indicative of town due to lack of bussing, but as I argued with him previously, that stagnancy was in fact the complete inverse of what he characterized it as - the general thread "yeah she's wolfy" consensus but difficulty getting more than 3 votes on her for most of the day is generally much more indicative that wolves just didn't wanna vote her but also couldn't bring themselves to defend her.

He then spends most of the rest of the day attempting to get a not-112 wagon to coalesce, without actually ever engaging with the content of 112's posts and forming his townread of her solely off the gamestate. It doesn't read as someone legitimately attempting to determine alignment. 100% looks like an agenda to not get 112 killed.

His D2 posting is whatever. Almost inclined to suspect some of it is antispew? The reasserted townread on 10k is certainly interesting. Accusation of Mac reads as a desperate chainsaw. Nothing he's posted today has been villagery and it generally just kinda feels like his WIM's fucked.

Full steam ahead, IMO.

Posted: **Sun Aug 16, 2020 7:38 pm**

Also a quick note if Urist flips w:

My "not partnered with Nanook" read isn't ride-or-die levels of confidence. If Urist is a wolf and Nanook winds up in an F3 please throw out preconceptions and consider him like you would anyone else.

Posted: **Sun Aug 16, 2020 7:38 pm**

oh shit i forgot to take my meds gg

Posted: **Sun Aug 16, 2020 7:43 pm**

If TSP's a wolf, scumreading Mac and then myself never seems like a winning line - and TSP, if he bussed 112, would probably be looking to FIND a winning line in this situation, not just relying on refuge in audacity that's never going to get him to endgame.

Maybe he's wolves with Urist and the team is just fucked, but I almost think TSP is v just because if he's wolfing he's seriously played himself into a corner, when I think he's a competent player who's more than capable of not doing so.

Certainly don't de-PoE him, he probably should never endgame here, but he's not my preferred vote today. Sorry Mac.

Posted: **Sun Aug 16, 2020 7:45 pm**

Dunking Nanook today is somewhat silly, because I think he gets easier to read as the game progresses. Think as a villager he gets more and more willing to actually participate in the sharing of reads and the solving process the deeper into a game he goes; if he's a wolf, I'd probably catch him off a continued caginess and peripheral play.

So, uh, let's not do that. Slot's more easily solved later.

Posted: **Sun Aug 16, 2020 7:46 pm**

I suspect I'm largely just monologuing to myself and perhaps a lurking Nanook at this point but I'm not super bothered by it. At least it gives me the chance to put some unbridled Brain Barf into the thread before I potentially eat lead overnight.

Posted: **Sun Aug 16, 2020 7:48 pm**

in conclusion:

==towncore, re-evaluate at LYLO==
proto
Alison
tutuu
Colin
Macdougall

==sort this==
tedxtr

==tier 2 poe==
Wilgy
Carotte
Nanook

==tier 1 poe==
10k
TSP

==dies today==
Urist

Posted: **Sun Aug 16, 2020 7:50 pm**

And to be 100% clear: when I call the above players "PoE", it doesn't mean "dunk straight through these people and the game's locked". It means "look here first for wolfy behavior, as I think the wolves are most likely contained within this pool."

Most important thing is to actively be evaluating in the face of new information, keep the entire game in perspective, and don't look yourself into bad worldviews/gamestates. This is our game to lose. Work together, dunk wolves, etc etc.

Posted: **Sun Aug 16, 2020 7:57 pm**

If I die, because I am Lock Town, y’all have my reads.

Posted: **Sun Aug 16, 2020 7:57 pm**

Everything I posted can be summed up as:

Spoiler: show

glhf

am prepared to eviscerate wolves if i'm still alive

Posted: **Sun Aug 16, 2020 7:58 pm**

Amy wrote: ↑Sun Aug 16, 2020 7:21 pm Alison, Colin, Mac, proto, and tutuu should not be re-evaluated until LYLO - I understand that tutuu's inclusion in this pool is going to be somewhat controversial at this stage, but I just... don't think she's ever a wolf here, regardless of how pushing on Alison made her look.

Of the rest of that pool, I think I'm actually most secure in proto being town; the way he approached the 112 slot is just super super pure. They're all villagery, obviously; if I'm being paranoid, Mac dunking 112 has shades of Nanook on KZA in Philosophers, but given the fact that the wolves' entire strategy in that game revolved around Nanook hellbussing, that's not anything that makes me concerned about Mac.

The immediate PoE should be Urist, TSP, and 10k. 10k in particular should never ever ever EVER survive to LYLO, if he doesn't get replaced; policy dunk him the day before if you have to, but that's not an albatross y'all can afford to have around your necks heading into worst-case-scenario F5.

Nanook, Wilgy, and Carotte all have various things going for them. I'd trust Wilgy the most out of this pool, in service to Nutella's TR on TH. Nanook is probably not teamed with Urist, IMO - I think Urists posts towards Nanook 100% read as pocketing if Nanook flips w. Carotte ostensibly has 112 spew but I think goes up in wolf equity off a TSP greenflip, as I think TSP is by far the most likely 112 busser.

tedxtr is the hardest player for me to really sort because he's felt somewhat out of phase with the overall gamestate - in a vacuum, I'm inclined to say that's villagery, but I'm not married to that at all. If this game goes to LYLO I 100% expect him to be there so uhh try to solve him before then I guess lmao.

Vote today should be between Urist and TSP. At the moment, I favor Urist; going to do some backreading to determine if this is still the case. That said, if I DO decide on TSP I won't be swapping unless I know someone else is around to break the tie. [also they could totally be w/w so hopefully this isn't a fruitless exercise]

this is arbitrary. 10k is obviously town.

Posted: **Sun Aug 16, 2020 7:59 pm**

Voting urist to prevent shenanigans.

Carotte/Amy can be the wolves.

Posted: **Sun Aug 16, 2020 7:59 pm**

Amy might get killed if town though so that can be pushed off.

Posted: **Sun Aug 16, 2020 8:00 pm**

At first Zoe was disappointed.
Why didn't the children even bother to visit?
Wasn't she a good girl?
Wasn't she gorgeous?
Wasn't she fascinating?
Then she realized it was a blessing.
Humans are boring.
She ran free and found pleasure in what remained of the day.

Day 2 has ended. Urist was chopped. He was:

Spoiler: show

Night 2 is underway and will last for 24 hours. THE THREAD IS LOCKED, STAFF PLEASE DO NOT POST.

Posted: **Mon Aug 17, 2020 8:00 pm**

Baby shark, doo, doo, doo, doo, doo, doo
Baby shark, doo, doo, doo, doo, doo, doo
Baby shark, doo, doo, doo, doo, doo, doo
Baby shark
Sharon shark, doo, doo, doo, doo, doo, doo
Sharon shark, doo, doo, doo, doo, doo, doo
Sharon shark, doo, doo, doo, doo, doo, doo
Sharon shark
Daddy shark, doo, doo, doo, doo, doo, doo
Daddy shark, doo, doo, doo, doo, doo, doo
Daddy shark, doo, doo, doo, doo, doo, doo
Daddy shark
Grandma shark, doo, doo, doo, doo, doo, doo
Grandma shark, doo, doo, doo, doo, doo, doo
Grandma shark, doo, doo, doo, doo, doo, doo
Grandma shark
Grandpa shark, doo, doo, doo, doo, doo, doo
Grandpa shark, doo, doo, doo, doo, doo, doo
Grandpa shark, doo, doo, doo, doo, doo, doo
Grandpa shark
Let's go hunt, doo, doo, doo, doo, doo, doo
Let's go hunt, doo, doo,…

Spoiler: show

Day 3 is underway. You have 48 hours to chop someone.

Posted: **Mon Aug 17, 2020 8:04 pm**

aaah baby shark is now on a loop in my brain
*great*

Posted: **Mon Aug 17, 2020 8:04 pm**

[VOTE: TSP] aubergine

Posted: **Mon Aug 17, 2020 8:06 pm**

k so it’s not Amy

Posted: **Mon Aug 17, 2020 8:07 pm**

Solved one

Posted: **Mon Aug 17, 2020 8:10 pm**

Mac, are you bad?

Posted: **Mon Aug 17, 2020 9:29 pm**

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Aug 17, 2020 8:07 pm Solved one

Gj

The Syndicate

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