The Syndicate

Either someone wants Sloonei dead or someone really doesn’t.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:50 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:48 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:42 pm I’ll stress this point again: if I am mafia there is no way that I am picking off my “ninja turtle” companions one by one immediately after we’ve all been lumped together. That is the same as putting a big glowing “Lynch Me” sign on above my head. There is no reality in which I’d pursue that as a strategy.

Counter point: you assume this no matter what, there’s no reason for you to come into suspicion just as the ninja turtles die, you don’t expect that outcome.
Furthermore, you lose endgames with the ninja turtles so you know you have to take them out and figure you’ll be fine if you don’t die fourth.
It’s actually weird that we didn’t wait another day for this conversation why are we having it now instead of either day 3 or day 5 this is weird

Because I’m town as hell. Is there a case against me independent of “he’s still alive”?

Alright so what’s the case on Epi?

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:51 pm

Either someone wants Sloonei dead or someone really doesn’t.

Well I’m currently getting lynched, so I’d go with the former.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:51 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:50 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:48 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:42 pm I’ll stress this point again: if I am mafia there is no way that I am picking off my “ninja turtle” companions one by one immediately after we’ve all been lumped together. That is the same as putting a big glowing “Lynch Me” sign on above my head. There is no reality in which I’d pursue that as a strategy.

Counter point: you assume this no matter what, there’s no reason for you to come into suspicion just as the ninja turtles die, you don’t expect that outcome.
Furthermore, you lose endgames with the ninja turtles so you know you have to take them out and figure you’ll be fine if you don’t die fourth.
It’s actually weird that we didn’t wait another day for this conversation why are we having it now instead of either day 3 or day 5 this is weird

Because I’m town as hell. Is there a case against me independent of “he’s still alive”?

Alright so what’s the case on Epi?

He’s pushing the case against me. Straight No U.

Vote: Epi

There is part of me that thinks I should be lynched. If we mislynch today and it’s not me then I’m almost guaranteed to be lynched tomorrow.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:55 pm Vote: Epi

Why?

Epi is playing a pretty aggressive gambit if he’s scum though

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:57 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:55 pm Vote: Epi

Why?

I’m wavering on whether I trust you or Epi more.

I don’t want to lynch DDL and I don’t think we should.

There’s little presented reason to vote Epi outside of thinking that Sloonei is town and Epi knows it.
There’s little presented reason to vote Sloonei outside of thinking that Sloonei should be dead and the most likely outcome now is Sloonei scum

DDL is a stupid lynch case

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:57 pm Epi is playing a pretty aggressive gambit if he’s scum though

This is my biggest hangup as well. But Epi’s one of the players I could see going for this.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:59 pm There’s little presented reason to vote Epi outside of thinking that Sloonei is town and Epi knows it.
There’s little presented reason to vote Sloonei outside of thinking that Sloonei should be dead and the most likely outcome now is Sloonei scum

Where else would you like to vote?

4 votes just appeared on DDL in the course of an afternoon, a bunch of people popped in and voted for him, chances are one of them was scum. I trust the wagon on DDL less than the wagon on Sloonei. The fact that votes emerged on DDL makes me leery of Sloonei.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 10:01 pm 4 votes just appeared on DDL in the course of an afternoon, a bunch of people popped in and voted for him, chances are one of them was scum. I trust the wagon on DDL less than the wagon on Sloonei. The fact that votes emerged on DDL makes me leery of Sloonei.

This is also part of the reason I’m not sold on DDL. I started the case, but three other people jumped on with little fanfare.

I’ve been working all day though, so I couldn’t really engage. This is one of the things I “wanted to comment on” earlier.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:56 pm There is part of me that thinks I should be lynched. If we mislynch today and it’s not me then I’m almost guaranteed to be lynched tomorrow.

Noting this

CFD on LC?

Yeah I'm being an hypocrite about CFDs but whatever sorry not sorry.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 10:03 pm CFD on LC?

Yeah I'm being an hypocrite about CFDs but whatever sorry not sorry.

Maybe, but i’m not feeling it. You could join us on Epi.

I mean I actually agree the people juping on me are shady af and hes the worst of the bunch imo

This is all moot if no one pops in and changes a vote.
Maybe scum was top of most POE lists and needed a mixup. Mac is a reasonable scum team player in that case.

LC is the player on the DDL wagon I trust the least.

If I vote epi its a NL and that sucks

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 10:05 pm This is all moot if no one pops in and changes a vote.
Maybe scum was top of most POE lists and needed a mixup. Mac is a reasonable scum team player in that case.

I like this theory too.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 10:05 pm If I vote epi its a NL and that sucks

Same with the current situation.

DDL voted Sloonei, I’ll vote Sloonei to avoid the no lynch

And Sloonei votes DDL and that’s the day

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 10:07 pm DDL voted Sloonei, I’ll vote Sloonei to avoid the no lynch

no you won’t

Tony and/or DDL just tried to sneak a Sloonei lynch in at the very last second.

They also were both on Michelle for a moment prior to switching to me. What was that about? [mention]Dragon D. Luffy[/mention] [mention]TonyStarkPrime[/mention]

I saw a vote by TSP on michelle and followed it. Then I realized I was gonna die and moved back to Sloon

Welp, NL it is.

I guess that's what happens when all the people online are in the lynching block.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 10:09 pm I saw a vote by TSP on michelle and followed it. Then I realized I was gonna die and moved back to Sloon

Why were you willing to follow Tony himself to Michelle, but not Tony & Sloonei together to Epignosis?

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 10:12 pm Welp, NL it is.

I guess that's what happens when all the people online are in the lynching block.

Or when 2/3 of the players try to sneak in a last second lynch of the third online player.

G-Man was jumping back and forth between the NFL playoff game and The Polka Heist. He was excited to see Lamar Jackson razzle dazzle all over the Tennessee Titans as he and his team marched on toward the ACF Championship against Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs next weekend. He had also laid the groundwork for two lynch posts tailored to each of the two main wagons on the poll.

But no. Former Miami Dolphins quarterback and current Tennessee starter Ryan Tannehill and the Titans defense were stunning Vegas bookmakers and football fans all across the country. G-Man was bitter. It was bad enough that Miami had gone scorched earth with their dumpster-fire yard-sale season, but now a quarterback that they had given up on was showing everyone how incoherent they really were by leading his new team to the kind of unlikely playoff glory that G-Man had pined for ever since Dan Marino retired.

So G-Man turned his attention to the mafia game. Surely he'd be able to start finalizing one of those two draft lynch posts. But no. As with every other lynch so far in the game, weird s**t happened at the last second that turned G-Man's plans on their head. A tie on Day 4? Fantastic. Then the topic wouldn't lock right away when he tried to shut everyone up for a few minutes so he could write some kind of post to fill the void. Really, though, it's G-Man's fault for being such a slave to the old way of writing lynch and night posts from the good old days at Lostpedia. Rather than a simple post, he uses mafia to let his creative juices flow. Mmmm, creative juices.

This is why G-Man can't have nice things.

Frustrated at sports and mafia, G-Man gave up. He turned off the computer and the TV. He let out a heavy sigh, shook his head, and made love to his wife instead.

Oof.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 10:12 pm

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 10:09 pm I saw a vote by TSP on michelle and followed it. Then I realized I was gonna die and moved back to Sloon

Why were you willing to follow Tony himself to Michelle, but not Tony & Sloonei together to Epignosis?

The Epi lynch was a no-lynch.

I guess the Michelle one was too, but there was very little time to think. I saw something close to by CFD proposal and seized the monent. Then I saw I was about to die and jumped back.

Yeah I risked you. Don't care.

I'd love to see a poll since apparently I was jumped on.

If TSP is bad, he stopped the lynch when he could have let Sloonei die. If TSP is bad, Sloonei is most likely bad.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 11:02 pm I'd love to see a poll since apparently I was jumped on.

Tony and I sat on you for a while in the last hour, but you ended with 0 votes.

Ok ignore my last post

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 11:02 pm If TSP is bad, he stopped the lynch when he could have let Sloonei die. If TSP is bad, Sloonei is most likely bad.

What? That is not what happened. I stopped the lynch because you and Tony voted to put me in the lead at the last second. I was going to be lynched and I stopped that from happening.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 11:04 pm Ok ignore my last post

No. Why did you post that?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 11:06 pm

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2020 11:04 pm Ok ignore my last post

No. Why did you post that?

Because I'm dumb and made a wrong assessmemt of what happened.

Give me a few minutes.

EOD as best as I can tell:

Discontent with current lynches, Sloonei votes for Epi. I also vote for Epi. 3-2-3. DDL comes along and doesn’t want to vote for Epi but will CFD to LC. Sloonei doesn’t want to. I suggest Mac and momentarily vote for Mac, and then vote for Michelle because we start talking about suspicion on the DDL train. DDL follows me. 3-1-2-2. Seeing that he will be lynched, DDL votes for Sloonei. 3-1-1-3. I vote for Sloonei because I’d prefer a Sloonei lynch. 3-1-4. Sloonei votes for self pres. 4-4.

There a history poll

Final lynch status

DDL - Michelle, Sig, LC, Sloonei
Sloonei - Mac, Epi, DDL, TSP

After my announced Sloonei vote, I went offline. When I came back, this was the poll:

DDL - 3
Epi - 1
Sloonei - 4

At this point it was obvious to me Sloonei would.vote for me eventually. Jumping on Epi would have made this a 3-2-3 so I didn't see the point.

Then TSP votes Michelle. This is the poll now:

DDL - 3
Epi - 1
Michelle - 1
Sloonei - 3

I jump on Michelle. This is the poll now:

DDL - 3
Epi - 1
Michelle - 2
Sloonei - 2

Then I realize nobody is following us on michelle and I'm gonna die. I vote sloon back.

DDL - 3
Epi - 1
Michelle - 1
Sloonei - 3

TSP immediately voted for sloonei. The poll is about 30s from locking when he does it. I'm assuming teammate communication is impossible here. But he sees me voting and changes back to sloon.

If TSP is bad, he went after sloon when he could have frozen the poll. He also risked sloon missing the deadlone and dieing.

So this is the real conclusion: they can't be teammates.

Now this is the poll:

DDL - 3
Epi - 1
Sloonei - 4

Sloon self preserves and the poll ends with the 4-4 I predicted from the start.

Actually the early part of my analysis is still ar ng because TSP was voting for Epi when I came online.

But this does not invalidade the point about Sloon and TSP not being teammates.

Wrong*

It's midnight and I'm on phone sorry.