Re: Nat'l Lampoon's Christmas Vacation
Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:24 pm
I don't follow your train of thought Leetic.
Restate your hypothesis please
Restate your hypothesis please
Murder, Mayhem, and Mafia
https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/
Also, when have I said the first statement? I have always expressed skepticism over Abby's claim; the silencer and post restrictor being the same person doesn't mean it's Abby, that would be a fallacyMacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:20 pm Leetic: Abigail might be silencer and curser
Mac: Probably not for multiple reasons
Leetic: Maybe Abigail has been bullshitting all along and the silencer is someone else?
I'm confused. Are you claiming you were never cursed?
Oh so you're saying she can be lying as town or mafia and someone else is the curse/silencer entirely?leetic wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:23 pmYou do know this is Abby we're talking about. The same person who faked a red check on me and held it for half the phase. Lying about this for whatever stupid reason is completely in-character for herMacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:22 pmUnprompted is the wrong word. Unnecessary better word.leetic wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:20 pmYeah, right here. How was that unprompted?☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: ↑Mon Dec 25, 2023 3:38 amOh yeah that was me
Also, you're moving the goalposts here
Abby doesn't do things that make senseMacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:25 pmOh so you're saying she can be lying as town or mafia and someone else is the curse/silencer entirely?leetic wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:23 pmYou do know this is Abby we're talking about. The same person who faked a red check on me and held it for half the phase. Lying about this for whatever stupid reason is completely in-character for herMacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:22 pmUnprompted is the wrong word. Unnecessary better word.leetic wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:20 pmYeah, right here. How was that unprompted?☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: ↑Mon Dec 25, 2023 3:38 amOh yeah that was me
Also, you're moving the goalposts here
Eh seems pointless. False claiming a red is less pointless because it applies pressure. False claiming someone else's cursing role here makes no sense and is some seriously wild speculation.
Although leetic is correct in that Abi seems to lie just for fun sometimes, I don't really think that she is. There could be other levels of lying like she is the silencer and the curser.
Sorry but I prefer to maintain a reasonable solving process when the alternative that you're proposing is tantamount to "anything is possible".leetic wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:26 pmAbby doesn't do things that make senseMacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:25 pmOh so you're saying she can be lying as town or mafia and someone else is the curse/silencer entirely?leetic wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:23 pmYou do know this is Abby we're talking about. The same person who faked a red check on me and held it for half the phase. Lying about this for whatever stupid reason is completely in-character for herMacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:22 pmUnprompted is the wrong word. Unnecessary better word.leetic wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:20 pmYeah, right here. How was that unprompted?
Also, you're moving the goalposts here
Eh seems pointless. False claiming a red is less pointless because it applies pressure. False claiming someone else's cursing role here makes no sense and is some seriously wild speculation.
No Scotty was green after the silencing.given they targeted Scotty who is now mechanically green on n1, it means the silencer is mafia.
Sure but if she's the silencer and curser then it means there'll be a curse today and no silence right? As is the pattern and by claiming she's boxed in to townsiding with the role.Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:31 pmAlthough leetic is correct in that Abi seems to lie just for fun sometimes, I don't really think that she is. There could be other levels of lying like she is the silencer and the curser.
That's more likely but I still kind of doubt it. If she is lying, then I think she is a Wolf.
Far, far from my point.
Yes, that makes sense.MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:34 pmFar, far from my point.
I'm saying that the silencer is clearly not town due to exclusively targeting town with the role. They are blatantly wolfsiding with it by silencing people like myself and Scotty.
what if its a choice of singing a song or silencing or something else? Or is that not how Roxy would write the roles?MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:30 pm My hypothesis is Abigail = curser and not silencer because if Abigail was, the simple act of claiming the curse means they'd just full claim the silencing as well (as either alignment), and if they are neither the wouldn't claim to have cursed you because it serves no purpose.
Given I was untargetable n0 and there was no d1 silence I think it's logical to deduce the silencer targeted me n0 and given they targeted Scotty who is now mechanically green on n1, it means the silencer is mafia.
This then means that Abi is probably town because if 2 of the mafia were simply derpy post limiters in a game where town have multiple cops I'd be surprised. Also it doesn't track that a mafia curser would bother claiming it and subsequently box themselves into townsiding with further actions of it.
It will be exciting to see if there is a kill tonight!RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:30 pm There is like a funny mind game between the protective roll and the triangle of Long Con / Rondo / Scotty
That could very well be... I don't think that speculation leads anywhere that great at this point in time, though.RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:37 pmwhat if its a choice of singing a song or silencing or something else? Or is that not how Roxy would write the roles?MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:30 pm My hypothesis is Abigail = curser and not silencer because if Abigail was, the simple act of claiming the curse means they'd just full claim the silencing as well (as either alignment), and if they are neither the wouldn't claim to have cursed you because it serves no purpose.
Given I was untargetable n0 and there was no d1 silence I think it's logical to deduce the silencer targeted me n0 and given they targeted Scotty who is now mechanically green on n1, it means the silencer is mafia.
This then means that Abi is probably town because if 2 of the mafia were simply derpy post limiters in a game where town have multiple cops I'd be surprised. Also it doesn't track that a mafia curser would bother claiming it and subsequently box themselves into townsiding with further actions of it.
Yeah but I just don't see the utility in partial claiming because it ultimately leads to their death. The alternatives of either not claiming, or full claiming, are both strictly a better play for Mafia Abigail than semi claiming and lying about their actions in a world where mafia wouldn't even be able to be certain someone wouldn't just out them off a track anyway.RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:38 pm That is to say Abbi N0 > Leetic (Song) N1 > Scotty (Silence)
when I see a song and a silence at the same time I will re-evaluate. But perhaps she switches between song and silence even/odd
But Abi isn't always a player who plays the way you would consider ideal.MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:41 pmYeah but I just don't see the utility in partial claiming because it ultimately leads to their death. The alternatives of either not claiming, or full claiming, are both strictly a better play for Mafia Abigail than semi claiming and lying about their actions in a world where mafia wouldn't even be able to be certain someone wouldn't just out them off a track anyway.RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:38 pm That is to say Abbi N0 > Leetic (Song) N1 > Scotty (Silence)
when I see a song and a silence at the same time I will re-evaluate. But perhaps she switches between song and silence even/odd
That's a cop out argument. Abi might do FPS sometimes but they aren't going to misplay as mafia like that ever. They are a good player who takes their responsibility to their mafia teams seriously. I've wolfed with Abi before.Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:43 pmBut Abi isn't always a player who plays the way you would consider ideal.MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:41 pmYeah but I just don't see the utility in partial claiming because it ultimately leads to their death. The alternatives of either not claiming, or full claiming, are both strictly a better play for Mafia Abigail than semi claiming and lying about their actions in a world where mafia wouldn't even be able to be certain someone wouldn't just out them off a track anyway.RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:38 pm That is to say Abbi N0 > Leetic (Song) N1 > Scotty (Silence)
when I see a song and a silence at the same time I will re-evaluate. But perhaps she switches between song and silence even/odd
Yeah but when has Abbi ever been accused of taking the strictly better path? She is like me, we just kinda vibe around towards what we want if its fun. But you could be right. Its not going to be helpful to speculate onMacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:41 pmYeah but I just don't see the utility in partial claiming because it ultimately leads to their death. The alternatives of either not claiming, or full claiming, are both strictly a better play for Mafia Abigail than semi claiming and lying about their actions in a world where mafia wouldn't even be able to be certain someone wouldn't just out them off a track anyway.RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:38 pm That is to say Abbi N0 > Leetic (Song) N1 > Scotty (Silence)
when I see a song and a silence at the same time I will re-evaluate. But perhaps she switches between song and silence even/odd
There is "vibe around towards what we want if it's fun" and there's "oops I'm needlessly outed now because I snap claimed a lie and Mac is a tracker who has caught me".RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:45 pmYeah but when has Abbi ever been accused of taking the strictly better path? She is like me, we just kinda vibe around towards what we want if its fun. But you could be right. Its not going to be helpful to speculate onMacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:41 pmYeah but I just don't see the utility in partial claiming because it ultimately leads to their death. The alternatives of either not claiming, or full claiming, are both strictly a better play for Mafia Abigail than semi claiming and lying about their actions in a world where mafia wouldn't even be able to be certain someone wouldn't just out them off a track anyway.RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:38 pm That is to say Abbi N0 > Leetic (Song) N1 > Scotty (Silence)
when I see a song and a silence at the same time I will re-evaluate. But perhaps she switches between song and silence even/odd
Mac, I am not trying to throw sus on you here but it is a concern I have been playing around with. What are the odds that a passive block is a mafia role? I dont mean in this game but generally as setup rands?
I'm the Oracle hereMacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:47 pmThere is "vibe around towards what we want if it's fun" and there's "oops I'm needlessly outed now because I snap claimed a lie and Mac is a tracker who has caught me".RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:45 pmYeah but when has Abbi ever been accused of taking the strictly better path? She is like me, we just kinda vibe around towards what we want if its fun. But you could be right. Its not going to be helpful to speculate onMacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:41 pmYeah but I just don't see the utility in partial claiming because it ultimately leads to their death. The alternatives of either not claiming, or full claiming, are both strictly a better play for Mafia Abigail than semi claiming and lying about their actions in a world where mafia wouldn't even be able to be certain someone wouldn't just out them off a track anyway.RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:38 pm That is to say Abbi N0 > Leetic (Song) N1 > Scotty (Silence)
when I see a song and a silence at the same time I will re-evaluate. But perhaps she switches between song and silence even/odd
It's just so unlikely that Abi is lying about this that arguments to the contrary while slightly plausible should be set aside in favour of the cold hand of logic. As that is how town wins at mafia. So says the Oracle.
Lets try to be less critical of other peoples play, its happened a lot this game alreadyleetic wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:49 pmI'm the Oracle hereMacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:47 pmThere is "vibe around towards what we want if it's fun" and there's "oops I'm needlessly outed now because I snap claimed a lie and Mac is a tracker who has caught me".RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:45 pmYeah but when has Abbi ever been accused of taking the strictly better path? She is like me, we just kinda vibe around towards what we want if its fun. But you could be right. Its not going to be helpful to speculate onMacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:41 pmYeah but I just don't see the utility in partial claiming because it ultimately leads to their death. The alternatives of either not claiming, or full claiming, are both strictly a better play for Mafia Abigail than semi claiming and lying about their actions in a world where mafia wouldn't even be able to be certain someone wouldn't just out them off a track anyway.RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:38 pm That is to say Abbi N0 > Leetic (Song) N1 > Scotty (Silence)
when I see a song and a silence at the same time I will re-evaluate. But perhaps she switches between song and silence even/odd
It's just so unlikely that Abi is lying about this that arguments to the contrary while slightly plausible should be set aside in favour of the cold hand of logic. As that is how town wins at mafia. So says the Oracle.
I agree that speculating is pointless when we'll likely get more information soon anyway, but Abby does stupid shit as town all the time
As town, but the argument is that Abi is mafia no?leetic wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:49 pmI'm the Oracle hereMacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:47 pmThere is "vibe around towards what we want if it's fun" and there's "oops I'm needlessly outed now because I snap claimed a lie and Mac is a tracker who has caught me".RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:45 pmYeah but when has Abbi ever been accused of taking the strictly better path? She is like me, we just kinda vibe around towards what we want if its fun. But you could be right. Its not going to be helpful to speculate onMacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:41 pmYeah but I just don't see the utility in partial claiming because it ultimately leads to their death. The alternatives of either not claiming, or full claiming, are both strictly a better play for Mafia Abigail than semi claiming and lying about their actions in a world where mafia wouldn't even be able to be certain someone wouldn't just out them off a track anyway.RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:38 pm That is to say Abbi N0 > Leetic (Song) N1 > Scotty (Silence)
when I see a song and a silence at the same time I will re-evaluate. But perhaps she switches between song and silence even/odd
It's just so unlikely that Abi is lying about this that arguments to the contrary while slightly plausible should be set aside in favour of the cold hand of logic. As that is how town wins at mafia. So says the Oracle.
I agree that speculating is pointless when we'll likely get more information soon anyway, but Abby does stupid shit as town all the time
Ascetic without any abilities is typically a wolf role. Town ascetics typically have secondary abilities, as the point is usually that they can't e.g. be protected by a Doctor. It typically depends on what other roles are in the setup though.RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:48 pmMac, I am not trying to throw sus on you here but it is a concern I have been playing around with. What are the odds that a passive block is a mafia role? I dont mean in this game but generally as setup rands?
Not necessarily, if Abby is lying, it's more likely that she's town. Or she could be deflecting from a partner, but IDKMacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:51 pmAs town, but the argument is that Abi is mafia no?leetic wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:49 pmI'm the Oracle hereMacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:47 pmThere is "vibe around towards what we want if it's fun" and there's "oops I'm needlessly outed now because I snap claimed a lie and Mac is a tracker who has caught me".RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:45 pmYeah but when has Abbi ever been accused of taking the strictly better path? She is like me, we just kinda vibe around towards what we want if its fun. But you could be right. Its not going to be helpful to speculate onMacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:41 pmYeah but I just don't see the utility in partial claiming because it ultimately leads to their death. The alternatives of either not claiming, or full claiming, are both strictly a better play for Mafia Abigail than semi claiming and lying about their actions in a world where mafia wouldn't even be able to be certain someone wouldn't just out them off a track anyway.RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:38 pm That is to say Abbi N0 > Leetic (Song) N1 > Scotty (Silence)
when I see a song and a silence at the same time I will re-evaluate. But perhaps she switches between song and silence even/odd
It's just so unlikely that Abi is lying about this that arguments to the contrary while slightly plausible should be set aside in favour of the cold hand of logic. As that is how town wins at mafia. So says the Oracle.
I agree that speculating is pointless when we'll likely get more information soon anyway, but Abby does stupid shit as town all the time
Ultimately we are trying to determine alignment not propensity to do dumb shit. The key point of everything I'm saying is that it all points at town Abigail.
It's the only ability I have. I have no active powers. I am essentially a VT with a weak passive that is inconsistent. In this game does that sound like a wolf role? With town cops and full roleblockers?RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:48 pmMac, I am not trying to throw sus on you here but it is a concern I have been playing around with. What are the odds that a passive block is a mafia role? I dont mean in this game but generally as setup rands?
Hahahah in the LC / Rondo / Scotty world we just wait 12 hours and lynch me when none of us die lolMacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:55 pmIt's the only ability I have. I have no active powers. I am essentially a VT with a weak passive that is inconsistent. In this game does that sound like a wolf role? With town cops and full roleblockers?RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:48 pmMac, I am not trying to throw sus on you here but it is a concern I have been playing around with. What are the odds that a passive block is a mafia role? I dont mean in this game but generally as setup rands?
The odds that a reflexive roleblocker is a townrole if you take my claim at face value (as in, that it's not part of a broader role, or I'm lying about it) is higher than it being a mafia role. But I could also just be a lying Godfather.
I don't need you to not find my claim questionable anyway. You should easily be able to read me on play based on how I've interacted with you in a way that should be quite blatantly indicative I had no idea what your alignment was.
Also every possible wolf in Rondo/LC/Scotty gown world we now reside in has spewed me town.
I literally just got through explaining to Rondo the utility of green checking Scotty so you don't have to go far to find evidence that I think using the cop check to clear people is a good use of it.
Yeah I was all <_< at first as well but then I thought about it and Mac has played the conversation out in his head already and decided thats the best response. Which in his position is probably the best response that I would make tooMacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:58 pmI literally just got through explaining to Rondo the utility of green checking Scotty so you don't have to go far to find evidence that I think using the cop check to clear people is a good use of it.
I do think it'd be a waste personally though hence the "if you must" not the "oh please sir" response.
Ie. if you're suspicious of me go for it. Because if you are then it obviously isn't a waste because it gets town one step closer to cohesive.
This all feels kind of like we're starting to spin our wheels into stupidville.
You misread my point entirely. I love writing large posts and then having someone focus on one sentence and misread it.RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:57 pmHahahah in the LC / Rondo / Scotty world we just wait 12 hours and lynch me when none of us die lolMacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:55 pmIt's the only ability I have. I have no active powers. I am essentially a VT with a weak passive that is inconsistent. In this game does that sound like a wolf role? With town cops and full roleblockers?RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:48 pmMac, I am not trying to throw sus on you here but it is a concern I have been playing around with. What are the odds that a passive block is a mafia role? I dont mean in this game but generally as setup rands?
The odds that a reflexive roleblocker is a townrole if you take my claim at face value (as in, that it's not part of a broader role, or I'm lying about it) is higher than it being a mafia role. But I could also just be a lying Godfather.
I don't need you to not find my claim questionable anyway. You should easily be able to read me on play based on how I've interacted with you in a way that should be quite blatantly indicative I had no idea what your alignment was.
Also every possible wolf in Rondo/LC/Scotty gown world we now reside in has spewed me town.
Ah I didnt get that aspect of itMacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 7:00 pmYou misread my point entirely. I love writing large posts and then having someone focus on one sentence and misread it.RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:57 pmHahahah in the LC / Rondo / Scotty world we just wait 12 hours and lynch me when none of us die lolMacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:55 pmIt's the only ability I have. I have no active powers. I am essentially a VT with a weak passive that is inconsistent. In this game does that sound like a wolf role? With town cops and full roleblockers?RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:48 pmMac, I am not trying to throw sus on you here but it is a concern I have been playing around with. What are the odds that a passive block is a mafia role? I dont mean in this game but generally as setup rands?
The odds that a reflexive roleblocker is a townrole if you take my claim at face value (as in, that it's not part of a broader role, or I'm lying about it) is higher than it being a mafia role. But I could also just be a lying Godfather.
I don't need you to not find my claim questionable anyway. You should easily be able to read me on play based on how I've interacted with you in a way that should be quite blatantly indicative I had no idea what your alignment was.
Also every possible wolf in Rondo/LC/Scotty gown world we now reside in has spewed me town.
I'm saying in the world all 3 of you are town, all the mafia have spewed me town.
Leetic has tunneled me into the dirt and been tilting me non stop (and vice versa).
Pyxxy has reacted to my pushing him with submissive acceptance and an unwavering townread.
DM, Porscha, Tutuu, Abigail and Robyn have all townread me in ways that you should easily can see spew me unpartnered.
Tutuu narrow solving hard into the likely DM/Pyxxy world probably just means Tutuu is town and by virtue if disengaging the game has been able to avoid being caught up in micro bs and has just actually sorted properly.RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 7:01 pm we dont kill mac here till lylo and likely we've found the wolf team anyway in pyxxy/dm/leetic/robyn/tutuu and we have enough chop and information to resolve the game. If abbi is wolf then its likely mac is too so we can eliminate that is a thought which leaves
pyxxy/dm/leetic/robyn/tutuu
who else can we eliminate?
Oh none, I forgot, put her in
yeah I have a big post about that in my iso. If we can unpair porscha was one of pyxxy/dm/robyn then that is the person I would sub out of this list and replace with porschaMacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 7:10 pm Porscha to me can sub as the fourth in this solve a little better than anyone else can. They have had some towny posts for sure but some of their play has felt like wolf agenda at times. Particularly moments where I've felt like they were subtly coercing me to go down bad paths, like when they were trying to push me off my Rondo townread early in the game for instance.
I will say I legtiminately scum read DM hard when ever I play with them. So their playstyle could be just fucked for me to vibe with. So it could be porscha/robyn/pyxxy. But the opportunistic vote on me to quickly switch away then it makes make feel she is just a wolfMacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 7:11 pm I think Porscha/Robyn is the only two of dynamic in Porscha/Robyn/DM/Pyxxy that I have seen a reason to exclude. Specifically because Porscha jumped on Robyn when I voted them.